Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025! In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.
John asks:
Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?
Bill asks:
With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?
Phillip asks:
What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?
Bruce asks:
Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?
In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll. President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.
The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents. It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez. I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.
The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold." That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024. Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not. Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present. It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.
Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason. The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll. So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?
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Tim, if the Cubs give up ONKC for anything short of an ace they will regret it for many years. He should be in the mix for playing time for the North Siders this year! Left handed power like his is too valuable to give away for anything short of a true ace. Shaw and Caissie should be untouchable, they are the future cornerstones of the Cubs. Alcantara and Triantos are much more expendable and both are also top 100 prospects with lots of value. NO TRADES involving ONKC!!!!
Bounty- The only way the Cubs should trade Caissie is if they have a legitimate intention of re signing Tucker. If they’re not going after Tucker, Then keeping Caissie is a must as he would be the guy most likely to take his place.
I love it: Luis Castillo for Owen Caissie. I’m loving that. I will sign off for Dipoto on that one.
I’ll cosign if a second signature is needed!
Possible. But also probably something that was once said of Eloy Jimenez, Brennen Davis, etc.
Sure I get that, difference is the left handed bat versus two right handed guys. Left handed power is too valuable just give away. Even if he starts as the LH platoon in the DH spot and gets spot starts for a while once up he will prove his value.
The only 2 LH power bats the Cubs have in the high minors are Caissie and Ballesteros. Ballesteros is a man without a Major position. he’s strictly a DH in the Majors. He’s way below average as a C and 1B which are really his only 2 positions. Caissie is an above average defender with major power. Is he a sure fire thing? No but his his upside is way more than Eloy Jimenez who was a butcher in the field and with a bat. Brennen Davis was just a walking injury. Comparing Caissie to either of those guys is an insult. Caissie at least deserves a chance when Tucker walks. And make no mistake he’s walking. So trading him shouldn’t be an option at this time unless the haul is phenomenal. Castillo? Absolutely not. Lopez? Maybe. He has comparable stats to Burnes with a cost effective salary. The Cubs should absolutely be in on him. Hopefully they have enough without adding Caissie or Shaw. I’d gladly move Ballesteros and Alcantara and Rojas or any other SS they want in the system. I’d even be open to Horton or Wicks being in that trade also.
Thanks for the Nats response. The question was better than the one I asked. I worry that if Arenado is their best option, and Arenado already expressed disinterest in playing in DC, that third base will be hard to solve for this season.
There are other 3b the Nationals can sign for a year and then potentially flip at the deadline. Moncada, Urias and Rojas all make some sense.
Honestly Moncada makes a lot of sense. Maybe it was the hype or the fact that I’m still wounded that my Yankees let him go to the Red Sox for $5mm more, but I just refuse to believe he is as bad as he was in Chicago.
The Nats might find something there and Moncada might actually find some new life playing for a team that isn’t being run into the ground.
Nationals seem to be taking a patient approach to contending which makes sense. The top of the NL is loaded currently. In the NL East, the Mets have improved, the Braves should be healthier and Phillies have strengthened their rotation. The Cubs and Brewers should be strong out of the NL Central (and none of the Cards, Reds or Pirates are clearly worse than the Nationals). The NL West, has three big hitters in the Dodgers, DBacks and Padres; plus, the Giants have made a big push again.
Therefore, waiting until 2026/2027 may be prudent when some of the big contracts start to sour and they can add a player at the top of the market.
I believe the Cubs are holding out to see where sasaki signs before trading some of our top prospects away. Cassie and shaw should definitely be untouchable.
Let me guess article says how Pete Alonso is a fit for the mariners (no way I’ve never seen BR or CBS link him to Seattle!!!) but then lists all the internal options in case we spend zero money in FA
Nope it sure didn’t. It was more of do they sign the KBO Kim, and have a chance for Roki
At least it wasn’t same old same old
Anything to do with Alonso in the article as a whole came across as caveat emptor.
Pablo Lopez is a cost efficient Ace that would be worth trading Caissie for. That being said, When Tucker leaves after this year the obvious replacement for him would be Caissie. Caissie could eventually end up being Tucker like. So I would be hesitant to move Caissie or Shaw as they should be regulars somewhere on the field next year. Other than Ballesteros and Caissie there isn’t much LH power in the Cubs high Minor League System. I would rather deal Ballesteros than Caissie but maybe that’s just me. I would offer Ballesteros, either Horton or Wicks and maybe Rojas or whatever SS prospect they like( Cubs have 7 of them) that they’ll never play at SS anyway. Ballesteros could be a bat without a position Caissie is a very good OF. That’s the way I would go but nobody asked me.
All teams are waiting patiently in line to fleece hoyer because they know hoyer is out the door at the end of this year along with Tucker.
With 20 teams in the mix for sasaki, where do u suggest suppose the cubs are on his list vs the west or east coast teams. I’d say the bottom 20 percent.
I would say higher than that because of Shota and Suzuki and Yu used to pitch there.
And they’ve all spoken highly of the team- Especially Darvish and Imanaga.
Braves must be waiting on spring training for some additional signings and trades.
More like July at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t surprise me neither would a deal tomorrow lol.
I can’t see what the article says about Torkleson, but I think it would be a huge mistake by the Tigers to trade him at his lowest value. He has too much potential. I think Colt Keith is the guy the Tigers should be looking to trade, he’s not a good fit as a 1B, his value is as a 2B.
They didn’t sign Colt Keith to a economical six-year deal (with three club options after that) before he ever played a major league game to turn around and trade him after only one year.
Luke not Strong
Agree with Drew, Tork’s looking like he is just never going to make it. Looking back at Harris’ comments, it seems that the Tigers are not expecting anything out of him, it’s all on Tork to save his career. If AAA isn’t working for him, maybe he should go overseas for a bit.
Drew- I don’t see his contract as an impediment to trading him. It’s baseball, you have to build the best team, contracts are a secondary concern. Keith has a lot of value right now and he could command a similarly talented young player (who could probably be signed to a similar contract if you worry about such things) who would be a better fit. I don’t hate on him or anything, I’m just looking at it from purely a baseball perspective. I’d trade him. I’d stick with Tork at 1B, way more upside potential.
I’m not saying they should absolutely trade Tork (unless someone throws too good of a deal at them for him). Torres is only signed for one year. The Tigers could look to move Keith back to 2B after 2025 if they choose to. Maybe Tork finally works out whatever is wrong with his game and becomes the player the Tigers hoped when they drafted him. A season split between 1B and DH is not going to kill him.
I just don’t think you look at trading Keith so soon unless he’s the key piece in some blockbuster trade.
Luke Strong- Contracts go hand in hand with player evaluation. Would the Tiger love to trade Javier Báez, hell ya but its going to be largely impossible by itself without some prospect(s) added or bad contract coming back or trading that bad contract to The Marlins so they dont get yelled at by Mom & Dad.for squirreling away their allowance.
So I don’t think its as easy as build the best team & contracts are a secondary concern. Contract details might be more important to some teams if the product they put out is capable of 54%
I agree that Keith on that contract is highly valuable and the return would be high but as you said build the best team.
Stick with Tork with the hope of him re-establishing himself vs trading Keith…..where is the short/long term value for a unexpected playoff team in 24 and expected playoff team in 25?
What do you want for Keith, Jerry Depito is over ripping his hair out begging to make a trade, Luis Castillo and a 25-45 ranked prospect do it?
I lol’ed when I read the SI shade. That ‘news’ organization has gone so far downhill. It’s an absolutely brutal read and virtually useless when it comes to actual news.
Take a quick hike to SI and you’ll appreciate MLBTR even more.
“The Braves’ actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d’Arnaud’s option, dumping Jorge Soler, ”
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That’s foolish. Any team silly enough to have picked up Soler at the Deadline with 2/32m left on his deal plus about 3.3m pro rated for 2024 would dump him for nothing. Consider it took a team as horrifically run as the Angels to actually take Soler off the Braves hands. And for Griffin Canning, whom the Braves promptly cut rather than pay him something like 1/4m.
I agree, the Braves always needed to move Soler regardless of payroll. But you also cut my sentence off partway through for some reason, which is the definition of taking something out of context.
I dont see any scenerio where Cubs trade OC or Shaw
They are the Cubs next wave of young talent
It’s useful to be wary of prospects who have a good season after several years in AAA. Sometimes an older player does improve, but more often than not it’s familiarity with AAA pitching. Combine that with a 90% outcome for the player, and that looks like a breakout. Sure, see if the guy looks like anything in the spring and if he does, maybe he earns a bench spot.
On “Hot Stove” today, Anthony Castrovince made his “Way Too Early MVP of 2025 Predictions” – American League: Riley Greene, National League: Fernando Tatis, Jr.
As the cubbies rank 13th in spending as usual this off season putting obviously all theirs eggs in one basket with Tucker which is another hoyer mistake, their key acquisitions are the 38year old declining pitcher; a backup catcher and a mediocre starting pitcher. Pathetic!
Its Hoyers last ditch effort to keeping his job
He only had to give up 1 Prospect to get Tucker.
As a Cubs fan Ill be super pissed if they deal Caissie or Shaw for anyone
Especially Caissie since hes our starting RF in 2026 when Tucker walks
BOSTON SPEND THE MONEY ON BREGMAN AND SCOTT ALREADY WTF