At yesterday’s Fenway Fest fan event, Red Sox top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell indicated that they have not heard from the club’s brass regarding the possibility of signing long-term extensions in Boston to this point. Today, a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays that while the Red Sox have not yet reached out to begin extension discussions, the team is nonetheless interested in exploring the possibility with its top prospects.
Namely, Speier lists Anthony, Campbell, and top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer all as youngsters the club is hoping to talk extension with. Campbell, in particular, has made clear that he would be interested in negotiating if the Red Sox approach him. Speier notes that the club’s 2023 fourth-rounder told reporters last season that he would be “100 percent” open to a long-term deal with Boston and also reports that Anthony is seen as being willing to “at least listen” if the Red Sox were to approach him about signing a long-term extension.
All three youngsters come with significant prospect pedigree. According to Baseball America, Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, while Mayer sits just behind him at #10 and Campbell clocks in at #24. MLB Pipeline, meanwhile, has all three youngsters within the top ten: Anthony is ranked #3 overall behind Dylan Crews of the Nationals and Walker Jenkins of the Twins, while Mayer comes in at #7 and Campbell rounds out the trio at #10. The trio’s performance on the field has generally backed up those rankings, as well. Campbell flew through three levels of the minors in 2024, slashing .330/.439/.558 along the way, while Anthony hit .291/.396/.498 at the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Mayer was limited to just 77 games at Double-A due to injuries last year but nonetheless hit a solid .307/.370/.480 at the level in his age-21 season.
Pre-debut extensions for players with that level of prospect pedigree are somewhat rare but one did occur last winter between the Brewers and outfielder Jackson Chourio, who had been ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline at the time of the deal. Chourio wound up signing an eight-year extension last offseason that guaranteed him $82MM with club options and incentives that could allow the deal to max out at $142.5MM over ten years. Chourio’s extension seems like it would be a sensible benchmark for Anthony should he wind up signing a deal before making his big league debut, given their similar prospect rankings and Anthony’s status as a similar five-tool outfielder who projects to land in a corner at the big league level.
Campbell and Mayer, on the other hand, may not be in line for paydays at quite that level. Tigers infielder Colt Keith landed at the other end of the pre-arbitration extension spectrum when he signed a six-year deal last winter. That contract guarantees Keith just $28.6425MM and maxes out at $82MM over nine years if the Tigers pick up a trio of club options they hold on the youngster’s services. Prior to the 2024 season, Keith was ranked as a consensus top-30 prospect in the game but did not crack the top 20 with any major service. That limits Keith’s usefulness as a point of comparison for Campbell and Mayer, given both are rated as top-10 prospects by at least one major prospect outlet.
Keith also falls lower on the defensive spectrum than Campbell and especially Mayer. He was limited to second and third base throughout his time in the minor leagues while both Red Sox infielders have spent much of their time in the minors at shortstop. While Campbell has mixed in work at second base and in the outfield and manager Alex Cora suggested to reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) yesterday that the club plans to have Mayer start playing second and third base in addition to shortstop this year, the ability to play shortstop along with stronger prospect pedigree seems likely to allow both Red Sox infielders to set their asking prices meaningfully higher than Keith’s deal.
Of course, it’s also possible the Red Sox could wait to work out an extension with one or more of the trio until they’ve already debuted in the majors. Speier notes that the club extended utility man Ceddanne Rafaela back in April on an eight-year, $50MM deal just over 100 plate appearances into his big league career. That deal can max out at $62MM over nine years, but it’s on the low end of deals signed at that stage in a player’s career in recent years; only Aaron Ashby’s $20.5MM extension with the Brewers guaranteeing less in the past half decade. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker demonstrates how quickly a player’s asking price can skyrocket once they’ve accrued big league service time. Julio Rodriguez’s $210MM guarantee with the Mariners is the most lucrative deal of the bunch, though Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. are among the other extensions signed with less than a year of big league service time that eclipsed the $82MM guarantee Chourio secured from the Brewers last offseason.
Given how quickly the price of an extension can rapidly escalate once a young star begins to establish themselves at the big league level, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being particularly motivated to see if a deal between the sides can be reached in the coming months. With that being said, the club has shown a willingness to extend players later into their career as well. Boston brass are already known to have begun discussions with left-hander Garrett Crochet about a possible extension with two years left before free agency, and the club has previously extended Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers on nine-figure deals ahead of their final seasons before free agency.
Six more years for Yoshida, incoming.
TJS – Little known fact, Yoshida has one year of ARB3 team control remaining after his current contract expires.
I’d be willing to bet that’s not true. Very common for IFA contracts to contain a clause that prevents that from being the case.
It’s actually true he does have an arb year after his current contract ends.
Spotrac shows him as a UFA once his contract ends. That’s fairly typical for foreign players coming over on deals like Yoshida.
Do you have a link that says otherwise?
Jbig – My source is BR, they have him as arb eligible for 2028 and earliest free agent as 2029.
But they could be wrong, I can’t think of an IFA who signed for less than 6 years under the current CBA and was not an amateur.
Yoshida signed an MLB contract and therefore is not subject to arbitration. Only MiLB contracts are subject to typical service rules that amateur players go through once reaching MLB. Foreign born players must accrue at least 6 seasons in a recognized foreign professional league to qualify for an MLB contract.
Kikuchi is a recent example of this. Sugano, who just signed a 1 year deal, will be a free agent again next season.
Spotrac is a very useful aggregator for sports contract information but shouldn’t be used for details as it’s auto-sourcing the data from elsewhere without any knowledge of correctness. (Although it has Sugano’s and Yoshida’s contracts correct in this case)
WCS – Thank you, that makes sense.
Still kinda weird that guys like Yoshida are classified as “rookies” in their first MLB year and was even included in the team’s farm system ranking.
Eloy Jimenez made $17m last year. Just saying.
I vote the Red Sox sign all these guys to 10 years/$350M a piece, right now, mostly spaced out evenly. That’s sensible.
sincerely,
A Yankees Fan
/s
Excuse me there was a typo there:
20 years/$1B each.
Typo corrected.
/s
More for Vladdy when he comes.
Best – I just hope Story plays well enough this year to be traded.
Did you hear his recent comments? What a jerk …. he sounds just like Rendon, complaining about how much of a “grind” it is having to show up at 1PM for a 7PM game and having to play 162 games (which virtually no MLB player does anyway).
Story needs a reality check. 9-hour days is the norm for nearly every working American, and we have to work 240-250 days a year. We also don’t get to sit on our butt for half of every workday doing nothing like Story does. He seriously needs to shut the hell up.
teams that want to emulate the braves should remember those extensions weren’t signed until the players had legit big league success
Catch 22 there tho, isn’t it?
absolutely. acuña was so obviously a superstar it was a no-brainer but for the other 99.9% of players it comes down to the skill of your evaluators. as salaries rise to franchise-crippling levels it makes more and more sense to take these calculated risks
Dasit – Sorry the facts prove that wrong.
45% of all Top Ten prospects become total busts.
Only 35% have exceptionally good MLB success.
it’s a risk for sure but every team besides the dodgers is operating within a budget and salaries for top free agents are skyrocketing. if ceddane flames out it stinks but it won’t torpedo the franchise
Yeah but moats those busts are catchers, power hitters with high K rates, and debut prospects that are ranked way to high in the first
dasit – I absolutely agree that it shouldn’t torpedo the franchise. However going by the way John Henry runs the Red Sox, they will hold onto Rafaela for the length of the extension even if he puts up a .600 OPS because it’s money already spent and they don’t like to spend more money.
I wouldn’t want a black hole in the lineup for 7 more years, that’s my biggest fear with his contract.
Right, that’s what people don’t get. Like Ke’Bryan Hayes, though obviously the PIrates have a much lower budget. He was horrendous last season and they are basically stuck with him and praying he figures it out again and stays healthy. A long term deal, regardless of the cost, that doesn’t allow you to upgrade the position, is a problem.
On the flipside, large signing bonuses may entice these players to sign even cheaper contracts than what they’ve handed out so far. Some will be duds but it’s not like those deals will handcuff a large market team. I wish the Yankees would be more open to doing this.
paying for past performance is the yankee way
Unique sitch because fanbase pillories Yankees if any guy ever leaves and has success elsewhere.
soto winning the triple crown and leading the mets to a championship would be less painful than watching dj lemahieu try to play baseball
dasit – It’s worked out quite well for them though. Can’t think of two many major free agent signings that were a bust. Is anyone gonna complain about the Judge and Cole signings? Although they did wait about 6 months too long to sign Judge.
YBC – When the large market team operates like a small market team, bad long term contracts absolutely do handcuff the team.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Errr… no comments 🙂
@Yanks
Why? They handed out an extension to Severino, and they didn’t age well.
@KnicksFanCavsFan
Sevy was already Y1 arb-eligible. I should clarify that they should be for the likes of Gil, Schmidt, Wells, and JDom buying out a few free agent years. I’d have some reluctance for Gil due to his past injury history but it doesn’t hurt to talk. If some end up somehow being a bad fit, eat some salary and trade them. How many of their homegrown players have ended up being non-tendered before free agency?
YBC – FTR I generally admire the manner in which the Yankees approach contracts.
They don’t rush into longterm extensions.
They target the best of the free agents who have proven to be durable and productive over a long period of time.
And it’s not often they lose their top targets to other bidders, with Soto being a rare exception.
Sure they’ve made some mistakes as all teams do, but they don’t jerk around with high risk reclamation projects disguised as “rebound candidates” and that’s a big reason why they make the postseason pretty much every year.
Teams like the red Sox should roll the dice on signings like this. If you get Anthony at 80 to 100 million and he ends up a star then you have the bargain of the century. If he flames out, the red Sox can afford to eat it. If they are smart, they should come out in front on these deals. Ceddanne is already looking good.
Way too early to say on Rafaela. He plays good D but if he doesn’t hit anymore than it’s not going to be a complete bargain. Plate discipline is really bad.
Rafaela put up 2.8 bWAR while having the horrible plate discipline. If he puts up 2 bWAR a season, which he could probably do based on defense alone, the deal will be perfectly fine.
ceddanne is the perfect player to extend because he has a tool (defense) that is so elite it will keep him in the big leagues even if none of the other tools improve (10 to 1 k/bb is concerning)
@dasit
so you’d like to be tied to, essentially, Nick Ahmad for the next 6/$72? Yes, they can ensign a bad contract by I’d rather pay a FA for 4 or 5 all star years and rest the eat the rest as an average or slightly below guy than overpay for a failed prospect.
ie: JBJ
Tang – 45% of all Top Ten prospects become busts. Many of the rest have Moncada-level success.
The question is, how much more would an 8-year extension cost if it’s offered after their rookie season? With their rookie performance being a factor of course.
Yes Rafaela looks great, gained 10 pounds of muscle. Hopefully he can also gain the ability to hit at the MLB level, otherwise a demotion is on the horizon.
Fletch – Sorry dude I’m straight. And now you’re trying to guess where I live? Yeah that’s not creepy at all.
Fletch – Reported and muted.
You don’t just give it to anyone. I would currently only look at Anthony and maybe Campbell. If you wait until they have MLB success then you get the casas treatment where they think they are worth 200 plus million. People complain about the red Sox not spending. This is where you do it. Try to lock up future stars instead of locking up aging garbage in free agency.
People complain about the red Sox not spending.
=========================
But then the folks whining about the RS not extending players will have to start whining about extending guys.
Yeah, I don’t get that. Pretty rare for these deals to not work out for the team, and sometimes they work out very well. Yet we’ve heard plenty of complaints about the Bello and Rafaela signings, even before the ink dried.
Lock ’em up!
Yet we’ve heard plenty of complaints about the Bello and Rafaela signings, even before the ink dried.
======================
Some RS fans will complain about changing napkin vendors.
Tang – Besides the fact that PROVEN players who have a track record of health and success at the MLB level are much more likely to be the better acquisition, there’s also something else you aren’t thinking about …. quality veterans can be signed for as little as 3 years. If they get injured or suddenly suck, only 1-2 years of the contract has to be eaten.
Then you look at a guy like Rafaela who still hasn’t shown he can hit MLB pitching ….. the Sox are on the hook for 7 more years with him at a much higher rate than what he would have gotten under team control. And if he’s demoted or released or traded in a salary dump, the Sox would AGAIN be paying a player to NOT play for them.
There is no worse scenario for a team than having to pay for a player that is no longer on the team. That’s why FOMO is never a good way to do business.
Ceddanne is already worth that contract even if he doesn’t improve
@FPG, you got that from a 2011 article by Royals Review, right? That number combines both pitchers and hitters. Just 40% of pitching prospects ranked in the BA top 10 are successful, vs. 62.7% of hitters. And of the hitters, 40% are stars.
When you have a ML-ready prospect like Anthony or Campbell, the odds go up further. Bigger chance of disappointment when you have a talented low-minors prospect like Bleis (who made top-100 lists a year or two back).
teams are paying 8M per war and ceddanne will be making an average of 6.25 million over the next 6 years. barring an injury he’ll be a serious bargain
Wait – I searched the article you referenced. It says 37.4% of position players who are overall Top Ten prospects become busts. That makes sense because a higher percentage of pitchers become busts.
royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-fai…
So that is basically what we are all saying, right? One of CMA could be a bust?
Tang – So you think Rafaela provided $50M of value last year.
Well alrighty then …
Yup. Could be.
If he maintains that level at least obviously
dasit – $8M per WAR is only for players on the open market, it excludes players under team control.
Which means 1) The player has to be pretty good since he’s been in the majors for at least 6 years and 2) He’s entering his prime years. Neither of which applies to Rafaela.
Fact is since you are going by cash basis and not CBT basis, he’s getting paid approx $14M more during his team control years because of the extension. What’s worse is if they DFA him after 2029 they will have to eat $28M which is far more than half the amount of his entire 8-year contract.
Lets hope he gets his head straightened out, starts taking the game more seriously, and learns how to swing a bat. Otherwise he will handcuff the organization for nearly a decade.
Most free agents are EXITING their prime years…
But you are right, the relevant seasons are 2030-2031. If Rafaela is worth ~$15M per year in those two seasons, then the contract is a win for the Red Sox (and they likely pick up the 2032 option). If he doesn’t make it to that level, or his career isn’t that long, then the Red Sox will end up on the short end of the deal.
I’m hoping that his 2025 season will be his first at/exceeding that level, and that he will continue to play at a high level through his early 30s.
Wait – Statistically MLB players peak at Age 27, I’ve done several studies indicating Age 27 was the best year of many players and Age 27-29 was their best 3-year period.
Roman Anthony is on pace to be a free agent at Age 26.
Soto right now is Age 26
Devers would have been a free agent at 26 if he didn’t sign the extension
Harper was Age 26 when signed with Philly as a free agent.
The list goes on and on.
Yep, we are all hoping Rafaela becomes the player that Breslow expected him to be.
I figure a player’s prime to be 25-30, a little wider than your three-year peak but the same concept.
You are correct, there are a handful of players who are eligible for free agency following their age 26 season. Sometimes even following their age 25 season.
It’s a little early to project a free agency date for Anthony. To be eligible at the age of 26, he would need to accumulate a full year of service time in 2025 and never look back. More often than not, players are not immediately successful when first called to the majors. And that’s assuming the Red Sox give him a chance out of Spring Training, rather than purposefully delaying his clock.
But most of them? They don’t hit free agency until after their age 29 season at the earliest. Adames, age 29.3, was the second youngest free agent among the top 20 (by contract value) this year. The median age was roughly 31.
Those young free agents like Soto are arguably twice as valuable as a similar free agent that is four years older would be. Four additional years of prime production.
Wait – We agree on prime, I just used a 3-year period initially. If you ask me their prime 6-year period, I’d be totally on board with 25-30.
Just to clarify, I was referring to very good players who weren’t late bloomers. Obviously Duran for instance is a late bloomer, plus he lost a full year of development because of the Covid year.
I guess what I’m getting at, teams generally don’t save a lot of money by locking up a player’s ARB1-ARB3 years early because they are still developing and improving and maturing as players.
@Tang
or you can wait until the 2nd or at least 3rd year and then try and buyout their arb years plus extra.
@sag
who are you referring to? I’m suggesting that it’s better to wait at least until their arbitration years before offering an extension. The article is taking about the Sox consisting extensions to kids still in the minors. libido they must intend to bring them up din to the majors, but I think that’s too soon.
@Knicks When arbitration years are over it’s not offering an extension, it’s trying to sign a free agent. The point of extending while the player is still controllable is to try and get a discount.
and yet Rafaela had 75 RBIs last year
@dasit Had the Braves signed them prior to having said success they likely could ve signed much cheaper.
Bottom line the earlier players signed the cheaper they sign for most often. Some will not pan out, but that happens with free agent contracts as well.
i think more and more teams are making that calculation. personally i would restrict extensions to position players because pitcher health is impossible to predict with any confidence. crochet is a seriously tough decision for the red sox
Extensions have been more prevalent with position players. However, free agent top of rotation starting pitchers usually command more $. Skubal is nearing end of his years of control and Tigers have little leverage now as far as an extension. Even if Skubal were to need TJS he’d likely receive some large contract offers in free agency.
I agree though Crochet is a tough decision. But he goes out and pitches anything like first half of last season he’s gonna command much more $. That is why franchises employ entire staffs dedicated to scouting, training, and analytics. They determine what cost is worth the risk. Sometimes they make right decisions and sometimes not. That’s the reason games are played, to decide who wins and part of that is done in the offseason. If they knew the outcomes they wouldn’t even play the games.
Well, with Crochet they gave up something for him, so I think it’s less of a decision. If they drafted him, you could make that argument though.
That’s the nature of any forward-looking contract. One of the priests I use to work with told me that, when he was first assigned to central Harlem, the city was selling brownstones for $1 each, so long as the prospective owner committed to spending at least $100,000 for renovations. Then told me that the same brownstones were going for $2M each.
Same with start-up tech stocks. You can wait, and be safe, but you’ll lose out on a lot of possible profits. It all depends on your appetite for gambling.
Players: No one has talked to us about an extension.
Press: The team is definitely interested in extending the players they haven’t bothered to talk to about it
2 true statements lol
True, but not exactly consistent.
Gambling Joe – out of the 3 prospects, who would you extend in order ?
Uh oh, money on the line time.
It sounds like a cop-out, but it depends on salary.
1-I’ll go with Campbell. He is RH, plays a position of need, and I love the combo of plate control and power. His AA stats look a bit like Betts. And because he was a 4th rounder, an extension could truly be life-altering for him and his family.
2-Mayer-Terrific talent, but injury-prone. I’d use that to my advantage. He got a good bonus, but the injuries might be on the back of his mind and encourage him to be a little bit more eager, similar to Crochet. And he is an IF.
3-Anthony. He’s the best of them, but that will reflect in his price tag. And he is a LH-hitting OF. In a perfect world, we could start Duran, Rafaela & Abreu for the next 5 years and have a great OF. And his contact skills are pristine.
That said, it’s like Bird/Magic. I don’t care which one I get, so long as I get one.
Nice post ! Campbell be my choice too ! Nothing is more confirming of a prospect than clearing 2 minor league levels in a season and dominating a 3rd
Guys who received bigger bonuses, like Mayer and Anthony, may be less eager to sell their future at a discount. That’s at least part of the reason why Bello and Rafaela signed early when Houck and Casas didn’t, and why Campbell is the most likely of these three.
Nothing is more confirming of a prospect than clearing 2 minor league levels in a season and dominating a 3rd
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I was going to add that, but I was already in tl/dr territory. This isn’t someone that spent one year at each level with marginal improvements.
Interesting note on the bonuses. Anthony was our 3rd pick (#79), but our highest bonus at $2.5M. He also had the 31st highest bonus despite being #79. Fancy footwork.
Romero, taken at #24, had a similar national ranking and similar bonus to Anthony at #79. Some sites had Romero a little higher, some a little lower, but all agreed that Romero was an overdraft at #24 while Anthony was a good find at #79. Presumably bonus demands had something to do with Anthony slipping.
HAHA.
Outinleftfield wins “Comment of the Month”!!!
Another common atricle on here…
“Sox very interested in Player X”
3 hours later…
“Player X signs with a team not named the Red Sox”
100 year deal do it
If they get into a Hundred years war with the French and British archers over the Duchy of Aquatine they’re covered if they need a guy
I feel like for every pre-debut extension that even remotely pans out you get a Scott Kingery or an Evan White. As much as these 3 players may be considered “core” players for the future it probably wouldn’t hurt to see them play some big league games first
Rsox – Voice of reason.
And in Mayer’s case, it wouldn’t hurt to see if he can go a year without getting hurt.
health is an undervalued skill
True. But keep in mind that all three of the mentioned Boston players is more highly regarded than Kingery was, and Evan White falls even further behind (as a more straightforward hitting profile type 1B, he had a lot of disappointment potential).
Every prospect comes with different upside and downside profiles, and so each should be considered for these sorts of deals on a case by case basis. For example, if a team looks at Mayer and sees capped hitting potential, decent chance that he’ll stick at other than SS, and legit health concerns…just don’t do it! But if they see a shoo-in long term SS whose missed time has been a fluke, totally different story.
Back issues. I definitely don’t lock him up
I don’t think white ever made it in top 10. That was a terrible extension and I bet whoever did that is no longer in professional baseball. Kingery was a bit more of a shock but that happens when you pay these guys sometimes – it destroys their motivation and baseball is such a mental game. Yoan Mancado also comes to mind. He’s prob the most over paid player ever
Big – That’s why mental makeup matters so much. If you’ve got a great head on your shoulders, you are much more likely to succeed.
Anthony has a great head on his shoulders, that’s a big reason why I’m so confident in him.
Rafaela? Not so much.
I would argue that it is better to wait anyways, If they signed an 8 year 80 mil deal that only buys the two years of FA, but takes on a ton of risk. If they wait two years they can basically get whichever one they like best for 8/160 and get 4 years of FA at a reasonable price.
Obviously they could add options similar to Chourio, but those CBA hits are going to be at the same higher FA price anyways. Also worth noting that Mayer and Campbell are 22, Chourio and Anthony are 20.
The reason you can’t is bc no one is going to sign that extension anymore. You almost have to do it before they hit the bigs or pay near to market value like SD did with tatis, which almost seems like a bargain now
Fair point. It feels like we get an awful lot more of these “team is interested in discussing an extension” pieces than ever amounts to anything. Share reports of teams actively engaging in extension talks or else leave it be, eh?
Speier is under contract to write something, anything, no matter how stupid. It would be nice if we were spared this but his employer insists on him earning his salary. The only thing you can do is recognize this, shake your head, and move on.
These sort of extensions worked out well for Youk and Petey in the day..and other teams… if they don’t pan out, I’ll raise prices on peanuts and red vines to recoup the loses…not getting any younger and if I’m gonna work at Fenway as vendor I wanna watch a good team/game!!!
Whenever I get peanuts at the game, the pitcher gets shelled.
Hayzee love that kind of humor!!… hi-o!!!!
Olm – Me too! I much prefer hayzee’s posts when they are intentionally humorous ;O)
And BTW – It’s Twizzlers that own the Eastern part of the country …. and in Boston it’s pronounced Twizzlas.
Only 1/13, so it is early, but comment of the year so far.
Pedroia didnt sign his first extended contract until 2009 after he had already won an mvp and roy..id say he was a safe investment by that point.
Pool – Exactly! This semi-trend of signing players with no MLB track record to longterm contracts is concerning, because it’s basically high risk gambling and defies logic.
Rusney Castillo anyone?
Rusney Castillo isn’t in the same category as the prospects mentioned here. He came over from Cuba having not faced even upper level minor league competition. There was far less to go on to evaluate him than there is with any of the 3 mentioned in this article. That’s not to say these 3 are in any way locks to be stars at the major league level, just that the organization has a lot more information to work with in evaluating them than they ever had with Castillo.
Personally the only one of the 3 I’d even consider offering a long term deal to at this point would be Anthony, as he’s moved his way through the minors and performed at every level. Campbell has one outstanding year on the minors to his credit, and Mayer has yet to have a completely healthy season with the organization. Neither of them seems like a great candidate to gamble on just yet.
Ken – I agree with everything you said, including Anthony being the only one I would sign to an extension right now.
Not surprisingly, it seems like Campbell and Mayer are quite eager to sign an extension whereas Anthony is not.
It’s a big step going from the minors to MLB, and Mayer also has health concerns to deal with.
I think seeing how much Jackson Holliday struggled on both offense and defense should be a wakeup call to teams wanting to rush into longterm contracts with prospects.
This is definitely a case where the devil is in the details too. Any contract offered to Mayer and Campbell would likely be for less of a guaranteed amount than what they may consider for Anthony given the track record concerns. So where the team might be willing to take a bit of a chance and the player may be interested in considering signing something they still might not ever find agreement right now on a specific deal.
At this point I’m more concerned with just seeing how all 3 play in ST and to start the season. All 3 could probably benefit from starting off at AAA for the year so given that the talk about signing any of them to long term contracts seems a bit premature. Unless you’re sure they’re going to be on your major league roster for the majority of this season why would you do something like that?
Ken – I think most teams would promote Anthony for OD because he absolutely annihilated AAA pitching last year at the age of 20. However if neither Duran nor Abreu nor Yoshida are moved, I think the Sox may keep down Anthony if anything to play with his service time. But he’s ready, he would have nothing to gain playing in AAA.
Campbell’s numbers regressed a bit and he’s 2 years older than Roman, plus I think the Sox want to give Grissom a chance to take over 2B so I’d give it a 50% chance he starts in AAA.
Mayer of course never played in AAA and is coming off the injury, so I’d give it a 80% chance he starts in AAA.
Sounds like they are smarter than the Reds, who should have done this already.
I would sign all three after one or two years in the majors! The club knows what they can do internally than any of us. If the club feels like gambling and offer all three a contract around 10 years at 150 million would be cheaper than one Juan Soto contract! Even if one of them make it big! Crochet I would also lock up for 6 years around 180. I would sign Tanner Scott! Bregman would be nice signing but I don’t see the Sox spending on him!
I get it, the front office will look like total genius for locking these kids up if it pans out and saves the club a lot of money. But rarely do these deals pan out. Prospects aren’t always a guaranteed to be good to begin with. I’d argue the Braves have had the most success signing kids early and those players remaining good. But in this stretch, a lot of people don’t understand just how many of the kids were top 100 prospects or even top 25 organizational prospects and sooo many of them didn’t work out. Mike soroka seemed like an easy long term candidate for example. Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright. Idk… seems like teams would be less likely to do these. Hitters I guess are a safer better, and even the Braves have had better success with their hitters that were top prospects and they locked up, but these still blow up all the time? Mariners did it with White not that long ago. Phillies did it with someone recently.
But rarely do these deals pan out.
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Do you have a scorecard on how much teams saved or lost on these deals. because some of these deals look really good.
Braves – Phillies did it with Ryan Howard.
The last 5 years of that contract were atrocious.
They could just extend players like Duran and Houck who have already proven they can play at the major league level, but sure.
Mayer and Campbell are surefire big leaguers worthy of massive extensions. A top ranked ss who can maintain his top prospect ranking through his minor league career always pans out. And a player who hits the scene and clears several minor league levels in his debut over a full season always pans out as well.
Boston will do well to lock up both these guys if willing. I hope the players are less willing though so they don’t end up like Acuña Jr, who literally signed the worst contact in MLB history. Dude cost himself 9 figures on that deal he signed with Braves
Big – did Acuna cost himself that much money? He has had two major knee surgeries. I think this is an example of the deal working out for both sides.
Before offering Mayer an extension, they need to see at least one healthy season either in the minors or majors.
I’d be ok with Anthony/Campbell extensions.
Glad u asked : D
He would have been a free agent this year at age 26 and would have only been the second best FA bc of what he and soto did in 24 or he would have been ranked above Soto. So let’s say he’d signed a 13/520 million dollar deal paying him 40 mil per til 39.
Rn, he makes 17 mil a season and is locked into that for the next 4 seasons. The 40+ mil a team is willing to pay will lessen as a player ages out of their prime. So his annual amount and years guarantee will be less. So let’s say he gets 8 years at 30 mil. That’s 240 total. Plus the 23 mil he’s short over the next 4 seasons.
That totals roughly 310 mil when he could have made 520mil. Dude cost himself 200 million plus in signing that extension with Braves !
Big – those are good points, but do you think that a team would go 13/520 for a guy who has torn both his acls? Throughout baseball history, countless promising players have had their career derailed by injuries.
Now if he signed a deal prior to tearing his ACL this season, I would agree that he’d get a mammoth deal in free agency. But now I’m not so sure.
Excellent point, even the best players can be taken down by injuries – and if that happens before they get their payday then it might never arrive.
I don’t think so. He may take a lesser deal in FA but Toronto and SF would have both made mega offers to him even if NY LA and Boston where all out
Using extensions judiciously to save homegrown talent from A) Leaving and B) Breaking the bank is a great tool.
With that said, I don’t think even discussing it, especially in the public, for all top 10 prospects is helpful, or sustainable. At least one year of mlb plating time is a better guide even if it costs a few dollars more. Otherwise every rookie will be expecting, demanding, his new contract The Pirates haven’t mentioned extending Paul Skenes……
It’s a tool to use, that’s all. Plus, you have to have a GM as good as Alex Anthopoulos, someone who can be trusted to make those decisions
I’m not sure you should give any player that hasn’t played at the big league level a contract extension sight unseen.
What I am excited about is we are most likely going to see the future core of this team show up at Fenway this season as the big three start to make their presence felt this season. Can’t wait for camp to start and to see these three mlb pipeline top 10 prospects in action. I wonder if Anthony is going to win the starting job out of spring training or will it take a month or two to get to the bigs? I also wonder the same about Campbell is he going to win the second base job out of spring training or is he going to take a bit of time in AAA? How does Marcelo Mayer look in spring training he’s almost certainly going to spend most of his season at AAA Worcester can he stay healthy this season and maybe get a September call up. We shall start to learn the answers to these questions in a little over a month. Bring on Spring Training can’t wait.
WTH?
I mean it isn’t like Crochet has thrown a pitch for the Sox yet. He’s only been here a month…
Extend Teel! Ooops
2 top prospects sox wont be discussing extensions with: teel & braden
Once again damned if you do damned if you don’t for Breslow and any POBO of the Red Sox since DD.
Bruin – I’m confused, why do you keep ragging on Breslow when his hands are tied by ownership?
And there’s been only one other POBO since Dave, his name is Bloom and he never traded good prospects.
FPG- My point was if Breslow didn’t make the trade everyone would be complaining that he’s just like Bloom and hoards prospects. He did make the trade so now everyone’s complaining he paid too high a price and complaining about trading prospects. I think Breslow is just working under the parameters he’s been given, ownership won’t sign the pitcher they need in free agency so he trades for a potential ace. Breslow can’t win with the Boston fans.
Bruin – We agree on Breslow, but we disagree on fan perception of Breslow. I don’t see anyone bashing Breslow for not spending. He has only one year of experience and his hands are tied by ownership. Fans realize that.
At least you and I do anyway ;o)
Saga,I guess my question is what makes you think ownership gave the green light to sign even one of those 30 plus potential ace pitchers? Everything I have read gives me no confidence that Boston was in on the high level free agent pitchers. They were in on Fried and Burnes like they were in on Soto which is not really at all.
I think the fact that Getz said this deal came together fast and suddenly lends credence to ownership not willing to sign an ace level pitcher 30 plus. It really appears that Breslow suddenly shifted and went and got Crochet using his treasure trove of prospects when it became apparent that ownership wasn’t going to cough up the dough for one of the free agent arms. We differ in our opinion on how this went down you think it was an inexperienced GM and I think it was his hand being forced by ownership sitting on theirs.
“age 30 plus”
Bruin – EXCELLENT post!! Red Sox Nation fully agrees with you.
As further evidence, Breslow himself vented at ownership’s cheapness by saying publicly they “need to feel uncomfortable” if they want to sign any good players. That clearly meant ownership needs to spend more on talent, even if it may be an overpay.
Bruin – Once again a PHENOMENAL post, I agree 100%!!
As I posted a while ago, Loomer called it …. he said because the Sox didn’t pay up for ANY of Fried, Snell, Burnes, Eovaldi, etc that would lead to the Red Sox running to the ChiSox and would give the ChiSox major trade leverage resulting in a massive prospect overpay.
And that is EXACTLY what happened!!
All we can do now is hope Teel, Monty and the other two traded prospects become total busts and Crochet pitches like an ace for the next 10 years. If all of that doesn’t happen, the trade could set back the Red Sox franchise for the next decade.
And BTW a recent article by The Athletic stated of all the MLB teams hoping to contend this year, the Red Sox have the second biggest hole to fill with the catcher position currently projected to provide just 1.2 WAR on the season. That is pathetic!!!
Seems like a good play to lock up home grown talent. But for every Acuna Jr, there are a handful of Scott Kingerys.
I think MIL got super lucky w Churio, but its a huge reward for the team.
Personally I love the idea because it creates several win-win scenarios. If the player busts, it’s not as painful as a Chris Davis.
Extend Casas, Anthony, Abreu, Campbell & Mayer and Duran if needed…
Thoughts on jarren? He had what seems like a career year. Will be very hard to top his 2024
I don’t mind extending guys, but it shouldn’t be off what might be a career year. Plus the dude is older. Extending him to buy out FA years is not as important.
Great point on Duran. I love his game, but they have him under arbitration control for four more years – after which he may have slowed down.
You can come up with positive or negative comps for anybody, but I would be totally fine if Devers’ career were to follow Pujols. He maintained peak performance through the age of 30, and had a couple more really solid seasons before his numbers fell off. Even in his declining years he was arguably as good as Yoshida is today. (I realize that isn’t saying much.) So if Devers’ career were to follow that arc, accounting for the fact that Devers isn’t as good a hitter as Pujols, we would see four more seasons of +4 WAR, then two more seasons of +2 WAR, then four more seasons of +1 WAR. That adds up to +24 WAR over ten seasons. About right for a $29M AAV (once deferrals are accounted for).
Miguel Cabrera is arguably an even better comp. He was absolutely slamming through the age of 33, before completely disappearing. If Devers follows that career arc, you get seven elite seasons followed by three that are a total waste. Call it +28 WAR.
Another comp could be Edwin Encarnacion, a similarly brutal 3B defender. His age 27-36 seasons added up to +29 WAR (he didn’t drop off as sharply as Pujols) and he was solidly productive through that period. Had 100+ RBI each year from age 32-35.
The point being, we can expect 3-4 mediocre seasons at the end of Devers’ deal, but it can still be worthwhile if he maintains some approximation of his peak production through the age of 32 or 33.
When you sign a 5-year player to a long-term extension, you end up with basically a FA contract. I sometimes quip that the FA standard is “too much for too long”. The AAV makes you wince a little and the number of years is typically 50% too long. Sure, it would be great if they could have signed Devers to a $150M/6yr contract, or even a $180M/6yr contract, but that was never going to happen. When you wait until a player is just a year away from free agency, instead of paying for his PRODUCTIVE years you also tack on full value for his UNPRODUCTIVE years.
Very different from signing a player with 0-4 years of service time.
When signing a player with less service time (Duran is a super-two this year), the key isn’t really the production over the arbitration years but your willingness to value and buy out some years of free agency.
Duran is eligible for arbitration through 2028, and his earnings over those years (whether he signs a long term deal are not) will basically track what he might expect in the arbitration system. The real question is not how he will perform in 2025 or 2026 at the age of 28-29, but how he will perform in 2029-2030 at the age of 32-33. Too early to have any kind of clarity on that latter question, even if you believe (as I do) that he is a star player today.
You aren’t going to get team options on Duran if you wait until after the 2026 season to sign him. Assuming he is still playing at a high level, he is going to want eight guaranteed years, not six plus options. Just like any FA, he will want to be paid for years that he probably won’t be productive.
Duran has a bit in common with Ellsbury — who was spectacular at the age of 27, playing in 158 games at a very high level, then had just TWO more decent seasons in his career — at the age of 29 and 30. If Duran follows that career arc, then the team will be very happy to not sign him to a long term deal.
Just tough to get any kind of clarity on position players in their 30s. Speed guys especially can decline abruptly. (The mistake DD made was in treating Betts with skepticism. First, he was a YOUNG free agent. Second, he was always far more than just a “speed” guy.)
Duran is also more than a “speed” guy, but he doesn’t hold a candle to Betts in talent, and he will be several years older when he reaches free agency.
Who cares what a player “should” have been paid? Players aren’t paid for their production, they are paid for their EXPECTED production. It is by its very nature a modeling exercise.
JD Martinez should have been paid $110M/5yrs based on what he did 2015-2017 and based on his projected aging curve. A very simplistic model might have anticipated +13 WAR over 2018-2022. His actual performance came in at about that number. Nobody had the option of buying JUST 2018, so the specific value of that season is irrelevant. In retrospect we can observe that the one season was close to half the value of the total contract, but that was unknowable going in.
I realize you know baseball as a player and coach does, but the flip side is that I probably have a lot more experience modeling. Contracts are based on future expectations and thus are a modeling exercise — whether phrased in WAR or using other metrics. So what if it isn’t a “real” number? No expectation of future performance is a “real” number. The only real numbers are what has already happened.
My back-of-the-envelope models are far from perfect. I’m sure that every front office in the game has a more complete system for assessing contracts. But I’ve been using it for over a decade, and it is broadly consistent with both the actual contracts signed and the actual performances over the lifetime of the contracts. So “good enough” for an amateur who isn’t in charge of real contracts or real money?
You’re correct that it isn’t necessarily a one-size-fits-all model. There’s plenty of evidence that starting pitching is evaluated on an entirely different scale from relief pitching, with hitters evaluated separately from that. That’s life — it gets more complicated than a single number.
As far as Devers goes, he is a middle-of-the-order bat whose overall offense tends to be 20-30 runs above league average. Some defensive value by virtue of being able to play 3B poorly, but I expect that to evaporate within the next few years. Judge him on his offense alone.
He is a good hitter — easily top 30 in the majors — but he isn’t an exceptional hitter. Only reason he justifiably got such a big contract was that he was on schedule to reach free agency at the end of his age 26 season. Similar to Betts (who at $365M was grossly underpaid). Soto was a year younger and thus got a monster deal. Different hitters age differently, but we can’t KNOW how they will age years ahead of time. Thus a younger free agent is reasonably expected to have more peak years ahead than an older free agent.
A free agent like Bregman who is 30 probably only has 2-3 good years ahead of him. He’ll probably get five years, but he probably won’t be worth it.. Martinez was both a year younger and a much better hitter, and thus he was a good signing on a five year deal, and still had enough in the tank to give the Dodgers a great performance in 2023. But when you have a free agent who is just 26, you’re hoping for six prime years, at least twice what you are likely to get from Bregman before the decline kicks in.
This site predicted that Bregman would sign for $182M/7yrs, despite most likely having only 2-3 good years remaining in his career. Isn’t a young free agent with his full prime ahead of him worth twice that? If Devers were a better defensive player, he would have been worth $400M. The deal he actually signed (which because of deferrals is basically a $290M contract) appropriately reflects his weak defense, valuing Devers only on his offensive considerations.
You of course are welcome to disagree with that conclusion, but that’s my take. Devers is a much better hitter than Bregman, and due to his age when he signed, he was a good bet for 6 quality seasons before his decline kicks in.
We’ll see, then? That WAR reflects the fact that Bregman is much better defensively than Devers. Devers has clearly been the better hitter over the last three years.
Maybe Bregman can continue defensively for a few more years, but his offense fell off dramatically last year. I doubt his bat will continue to be above average for more than 2-3 more years.
You realize that Devers has the better BA, OBP, and SLG over the last three years? Bregman peaked in 2018-2019 and hasn’t come close to those numbers since. I wouldn’t use career numbers in analyzing their futures.
Agreed that as they stand they are just one of several teams competing for the third Wild Card. And Bregman would definitely improve them this year.
I just don’t believe Bregman has more than 2-3 years left in the tank. His offensive game faded last year, which at his age is a bad sign.
john – You’re not the first to call 2024 a career year for him, but it doesn’t fit the definition of career year.
A career year is where a guy is bad or mediocre for a few years and then has a great year.
Last year was Duran’s first full year in the majors, in fact he had more PA’s last year than he had in his career after the 2023 season. So there’s no reason to believe he can’t improve this year. And with speed being a huge part of his game, that’s not gonna go away any time soon.
@fever
Hope youre right
Duran can do it all
john – Yeah I really hope the Sox stop being cheap and just give him the half mill he wants, he deserves it!!
Before exclaiming a willingness to exceed the CBT, shouldn’t the management talk to John Henry? Or was the hype just that?
Bobby – To quote the great Flavor Flav, “Don’t Believe The Hype”.
This is the second consecutive year where JH and his management team are not on the same page. It’s become painfully obvious that cost control and profit making are the watch words. I’m not looking to blame anyone, Henry owns this club. It’s his business. He has the right to make financial decisions that benefit the bottom line. As a fan, my only option is to not invest in the product. The big trade made this club better. signing Buehler may pay big dividends. chapman will get his strikeouts. The injured may come back and be of great benefit. I’m willing to give them the benefit of a doubt, but patience is wearing thin.
Bobby – Great points, but it’s a bit more involved than just Henry owning the team ….. FSG, Redbird, lots of investors who want a return on their investment. If Henry’s cheapness and the mismanagement of the team continues to erode profits, and the value of the franchise goes down with lost sponsorships and crashing TV ratings, that’s gonna hurt Henry and the investors in their wallets.
They are making a lot of high risk moves while also alienating their fanbase (for instance FSG Fest was a dud), hopefully it all pays off in the long run.
We’re going to need the fiscal 24 record to compare against 23. My guess is that 24 will earn more profit.