The Red Sox made one of the biggest trade acquisitions of the winter, landing Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. Boston apparently has interest in keeping their newly-acquired southpaw for the longer term.
Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox and Crochet’s camp at CAA have had at least preliminary discussions about a long-term deal. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures on salaries for the 2025 season. That doesn’t preclude the sides from continuing to negotiate, but it stands to reason they’ll attempt to hammer out a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing for this year.
Crochet is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. His early-career injuries and usage out of the White Sox’s bullpen limited his arbitration earnings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the southpaw for a $2.9MM salary. He’s controllable for one additional year and is on track to reach free agency after his age-27 season.
For the next two seasons, Crochet should offer immense surplus value. He turned in top-of-the-rotation numbers on a rate basis last year. Crochet worked to a 3.58 earned run average with a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage. Chicago limited his workload within starts down the stretch. He finished the season with 146 innings despite taking all 32 turns through the rotation. Boston presumably won’t have any qualms about fully unleashing Crochet in his second season as a starter.
Crochet’s contract status was a key issue heading into last summer’s deadline. The southpaw seemed an obvious candidate to move as the ace of a team that was headed to the worst season in modern history. Chicago held onto him instead, in large part because his camp indicated he wanted an extension to pitch into October. To be clear, there’s no indication that Crochet would take that stance again now that he has a full season under his belt. At the time, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that the asking price would’ve been above nine figures. Passan noted that Crochet’s camp could compare him to Tyler Glasnow, who signed for four years and $110MM in new money on his extension with the Dodgers.
It’s not a perfect comparison. Glasnow was one year from free agency and had banked significantly greater earnings. Crochet is an extra season away. However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. He finished the year healthy and is a few months closer to free agency. Even last year’s capped innings tally is above Glasnow’s career high of 134 frames in an MLB season.
Jacob deGrom holds the record for the largest extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time. deGrom secured $120.5MM from the Mets covering his age 32-35 seasons. That was an anomaly, as deGrom was a late bloomer but was coming off a Cy Young season. Crochet would certainly look to top more recent precedents like Pablo López’s $73.5MM deal with the Twins and the $71.5575MM in new money which Mitch Keller got from Pittsburgh last spring. A four- or five-year term would seem the most likely midpoint if the sides can reach an agreement. That’d allow the Sox to buy out two or three free agent seasons while Crochet would still have an opportunity to cash in as a free agent at 30 or 31.
Good luck, Garret.
Prunella – I also wish Crochet the best, I really hope he performs up to expectations.
But I have to ask this question: What did Tony mean by this: “Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. ”
Here’s his first half numbers thru June 30th:
18 Starts
101 Innings
3.02 ERA
.570 OPSA
Here’s his second half numbers after June 30th:
13 Starts
44 Innings
4.84 ERA
.788 OPSA
One would expect him to have BETTER numbers in the second half considering he pitched 56% fewer innings, but instead he pitched far worse.
How does anyone utilizing logic not see that as a major red flag? Based on the horrible second half numbers and the team’s decision to slash his workload in the second half, doesn’t it look like the ChiSox believed something was wrong with him and they slashed his workload to protect his trade value?
FPG- right at the time of Crochet’s demand of an extension (reported Jul25) he gave up 6ER, 6ER and 7ER over the next three starts July 28 and August. At that point it appeared as though the White Sox were going to shut him down for good.
He rebounded pretty well and pitched much better end of August into Sept.
Not sure how I feel about the mental makeup of the player, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt considering the frazzled mental state that Chris Sale left Chicago in.
I think we have a special talent here that needs to prove he can stay healthy and be an elite starter. Probably a better gamble than extending Ceddane after a cup of coffee in the big, no?
Sad – Yes I totally agree! I have no reason to be concerned with his mental makeup, but as you said he needs to prove he can stay healthy and be an elite starter which means 7 innings a game with 3 or less runs allowed more often than not, especially if he’s going to be part of a 6-man rotation.
Even Zack Wheeler in 2021 only pitched 6-2/3 innings per start.
Corbin Burnes won the Cy that year with under 6 IP per start.
But hey, Alcantara in 2022 won the Cy, breached 7 IP per start, and in blowing out his arm nearly doubled his ERA in 2023 before going under the knife.
7 innings is the measure for no one in the fast, faster, fastest game.
Sad – He had 13 starts in the second half, only 44 innings total.
Of those 13 starts, 6 of them were bad.
Where are you even getting 6-6-7 ER in consecutive starts? That never happened.
Like I said, he’s got the talent to be an ace. But he didn’t show squat in the second half, I just want to make sure he’s right before he gets a 9-figure contract.
Or the White Sox and Crochet were both concerned about the future. The White Sox likely slashed Crochet’s innings to protect his trade value. Crochet was likely concerned about his innings being way higher than ever before and may have dialed things back. We know he wanted an extension before pitching in the postseason.
but the point still stands. even if everyone was in agreement that he only pitch 4 innings per start to manage workload he pitched worse in the second half. his last 3 starts were very strong but from late-july to mid-sept things were rough. the games i watched he looked like a true ace but right now his long-term value is impossible to determine. tough call for the red sox
What point still stands? I was addressing “doesn’t it look like the ChiSox believed something was wrong with him”.
apologies! reading comprehension fail
Actually, I see he had two points. You were discussing the first and I was discussing the second. I could have been clearer.
but from late-july to mid-sept things were rough.
==========================
It depends on what you look at. In his last 8 starts, he had a 42/3 K/W in 25.1 IPs with two HRs. That’s about unhittable.
you’re right and i stand corrected. looking at the game logs it was just 2 stinkers that dragged his second half numbers down
With the enormous wealth of Prospects that were given up to get Crochet the extension needs to be at least through the 2030 season to hope to break even on the trade.
They’d better they bet. And it won’t be cheap
The guy Crochet is good, but my goodness they gave up so much. Larry Anderson comes to mind
The Red Sox gave up two guys that may be above average (Teel, Montgomery) and two guys that may be average (Meidroth, Gonzalez). Their future has risk just like Crochet’s future has risk.
Anderson was a half year rental in 1990 for Jeff Bagwell. Anderson went on to pitch another 4 years out of the bullpen. Jeff Bagwell almost slugged .800 in 1994. Andersons last year in the majors. Statement had nothing to due with future risk, but rather future reward or lack there of. I don’t have a crystal ball not pretending to, they all could end up like Jimenez, and Moncado?
all = No offense but I think Meidroth will be the CWS 2B for years. He’s out performed Mayer and everyone worships that tool.
Losing Teel means losing the next Varitek so if you want to focus on stats only, it’s fair to suggest he’ll be slightly above league average but is that how you think of Varitek. He was a leader, he set the tone for the entire ball club and he was very good with the pitching staff and he was an above average hitter. So I think that’s a huge loss considering we are using Wong who has had one good year and very little leadership skills.
Montgomery had a late injury that dropped him from top 3 on the draft list down to the Boston pick. That was a huge break for Breslow and then he threw it away as if he had no clue how lucky he was. His upside potential was above the 4th pick in the draft and for some reason the 4th pick in the draft has carried Mayer through lots of bad seasons. This guy has more baseball talent than Mayer and it’s not really close according to the pre=draft rankings. An insignificant injury dropped him far more than it should have.
2 years and Crochet leaves. The trade was a very bad mistake by Breslow unless Crochet can repeat what he did in 2024 and also signs an extension. What are the odds of that happening? HUGE MISTAKE. Breslow is a rookie making rookie mistakes.
I have seen Meidroth play. He doesn’t look like an athlete to me. He is a short chubby guy. Teel is also smaller than just about every modern day catcher at 6’0″ and 190 lbs. What do you think about that? Is that a red flag? Varitek was 6’2″ and 230 lbs. You may be right, but I feel good about my above assessment of the 4 players traded for Crochet. It is just too early to reach a conclusion about this trade.
Meidroth might be the best player of the four, ridiculous K/BB ratios, he could be a great contact hitter and could develop a little power. Wikelman Gonzalez also looks good, has a big body. Four MLB players who will make the big club sooner than later.
bwmiller79: Anything is possible. It will be interesting to see where all 5 players go from here. I like your posts.
All – Bruin1012 screws up opinions because he convinces people that they have insights into a player when they are not qualified to evaluate a player by sight. Look at his stats. He’s done an excellent job and the FACTS prove that. You can dress up a pig and make him look good (Mayer) but his stats still prove he’s a pig.
Your assessment of the four in my opinion is biased because your idiot GM gave up far too much and you aren’t willing to admit it yet. Montgomery should have gone top 3 but a late injury dropped him into our laps. It was incredibly lucky and then we gave him away as an above average player when he earned a spot above Mayer in the 2024 draft with his skills. I think you are off in his evaluation. The size of Teel is irrelevant. We don’t block the plate with big catchers when runners are scoring. Those days are gone. Varitek’s size came in handy in fighting AROD but what made Varitek great was his game calling, his presence in the locker room and his ability to lead on the field both defensively with a strong accurate arm and his ability to call the right pitch to get pitchers out of jams. EVERYTHING I have read about Teel was along the same lines. Great presence in the locker room, great field commander, excellent hitter for a catcher and a strong and accurate arm. I think you have that one wrong.
I can’t speak to the pitcher because I had him in the Pretender pile with Mayer, Bleis and Romero. I am fine with you writing him off because I did too.
All – this is where you must learn to read the stats and understand what a player has done. The first line of his stats takes him back to age 17 in 2019. He’s graduating HS and he gets invited to play in the WCL since he’s from Torrence CA and played at Mira Costa a HS in Manhattan Beach. He hits .424 as a 17 year old. That was my first flag suggesting to take a deeper look into this kid
COVID did a number on his college career as it did many smaller colleges. When school let out sophomore year in 2021 he went to the Northwoods League to play during the summer. It’s a west coast summer league modeled after the Cape Code League. He hit .345 with a .908 OPS as a 19 year old. His junior year at San Diego he hit .329 with a 984 OPS
BOSTON Drafted him in the 4th round and he went to ROK ball played 3 games and hit .375 and got promoted to Salem for A ball where he hit .309 with an OPS of 982. He then headed out to the Cape Cod League and hit .286 with a .816 OPS against better competition. Remember this is 2022 and he is 20 years old. Mayer is a year younger and at age 20 he was at Hi-A hitting .290 with an OPS of .890 and then fell on his face at AA hitting .189 with a .608 OPS.
At 21 Meidroth went to the same locations as Mayer as a double play team. Meidroth hit .338 compared to Mayer’s .290 and his OPS was 954 compared to Mayer’s .890. Then both got promoted to AA and Meidroth hit .255 compared to Mayer’s .189 and his OPS was .762 compared to Mayer’s .608.
So comparing the two straight up in 2023 and 2022 Meidroth exceeded Mayer by a significant amount.
In 2024 Meidroth went to AAA just like Mayer and Meidroth put up a .293 average with an OPS of .838 while Mayer hit .307 14 points higher with an .850 OPS (12 points higher).
This was just another excellent year for Meidroth but it was Mayer’s first good year since he was drafted. Meidroth’s path to AAA was superior to Mayer’s and if not for his first good season in 2024 it wouldn’t have been close. And then of course, Mayer got hurt again.
So I believe you are selling Meidroth short because he doesn’t look like an athlete to you. His stats say he is. The evaluators say he is. He got drafted in the 4th round which should be very impressive but his body doesn’t look right to you? See this is exactly why I suggest guys like Bruin1012 knock it off with his ridiculous shaming of players because they don’t LOOK RIGHT TO HIM. He’s not a scout, heck he barely understands the game.
Numbers don’t lie. They document performance. Looks and performance may not match up so ALWAYS GO WITH THE STATS because they don’t lie. Visual impressions can be very very wrong as Bruin1012 proves all the time. Ask him about the stud looking Jeter Downs. I had to listen to his crap about him right up until he got DFA’d.
Meidroth
ROK – .375 .
I watched Meidroth hit in a number of highlights, he hits the ball all over the zone, hits the high pitch, hits the low pitch, inside, outside, he has pretty amazing bat control. Couple that with what looks to be one of the excellent feel for the strike zone and you have a really talented hitter.
Pete Rose looked like a short chubby fat guy too.
I genuinely do not understand this comparison. At the time of the Bagwell/Andersen deal in 1990, Bagwell was the clear #1 prospect in Boston’s system, and Andersen was a 37 year old reliever who was in the middle of a solid season. Teel was the #3 prospect in a system overflowing with talent, and Garrett Crochet is 25 years old, a starting pitcher, coming off a breakout season. There is really no comparison here.
Idk, this guy Jeff bagwell was just a prospect and they gave up 4 for one pitcher. That’s all, in the Game of baseball I’ve watched some nobody get drafted in the 13th round as the 18th pick 402nd overall and hit 703 homeruns. Not everyone is a machine, but then again not everyone breaks out like Jake Arrieta did or whoever? Just a poke at wow these guys traded one Jeff bagwell who wasn’t a superstar in the minors at the time and wasn’t at AA either before his call up? Didn’t hit homeruns, was a contact guy similar to christian yelich. That’s all, Boston gave up 4 players for a dude that’s been hurt and pitched out of a bullpen based on one year of good starting pitching. That’s all, not making assumptions or saying anyone of those players will be great or won’t just saying that’s putting alot out there to chance
Go back and look at the James Shields trade from San Diego to CHW
also worth remembering that until the last decade it was standard practice to trade a legit prospect for a veteran rental. in 2011 the giants traded zach wheeler for a half season of carlos beltran
Yeah and the Cardinals almost traded Albert Pujols for Carlos Hernadez in 2000. Instead they sent Ben Johnson to the Padres. I know comrade
To me this is almost the same as the Adam Eaton deal. Massive overpay by Washington
ACL – The Boston system is far from overflowing. Don’t the players actually have to perform and not just be a bunch of BS some poorly informed farm system writer declares great.
Crochet has had ONE good year at starting. He came out of college and pitched 54 innings and needed TJ surgery because he was over worked too soon by a bad farm system in Chicago and then after TJ they brought him back and immediately pitched him more innings than he had pitched since 2018. Pardon me, but that’s a huge red flag. We have no idea whether his arm can handle it and be just as effective in 2025. Then the other side of the razor is the fact that he leaves after the 2026 season for free agency because we don’t sign big long contracts for pitchers. So all that talent was wasted on a short term solution that is iffy.
If he stays, the trade can be justified.
If you can call what Crochet did in 2024 merely ‘good,’ stop writing and begin thinking.
he was great in night court
The same was being said about Sale and what happened to that wealth of prospects? The red Sox were more than break even
That’s why the call them prospects
Chris sale was worth 17.1 WAR for Boston
Moncada was worth 14.3 for the white soxs, Kopech was worth 4.5
Pretty even trade 1 WAR is worth what 8-10 million? So the white sox got what 12-15 million more in value? Pretty even trade
Aces are always worth more than position players with the same WAR, particularly thanks to the short series that make up postseasons.
Lionoflambs – Go back to the basement and play your video games kid. The WAR stat is hardly accurate and to suggest Moncada a true slug of a player and Kopech who didn’t play for years are comparable to Sale a future HOFer if not for Cora, then you know nothing about baseball. Like I said, go back to your simulation games that have nothing to do with reality.
WAR is worth nothing by the way, it’s a crap estimate of something that doesn’t exist in baseball. Wins above replacement is fiction, pure fiction. There is no real way to swap out wins based on a faulty formula. It’s idiocy.
Sale won two division titles and a World Series ring.
Moncada and Kopech did NOTHING.
How does that fit into WAR? hahahaha
If Cora doesn’t ruin Sale’s arm in 2019 this trade would have been one of the most lopsided trades in history. I guess you have Cora to thank for your bizarre rationalization of a completely one-sided trade where Dombrowski basically pantsed the White Sox by giving them over rated prospects for a top 5 SP in baseball. Little did he know just how horrible a manager Cora was but he learned. Price and Sale were just the start to Cora’s screw-ups that eventually cost him his job. That piece of horse dung is still allowed to be in baseball is the real tragedy!!! At least Sale got free of Cora and finally got his long awaited Cy Young. Yep – Moncada and Kopech a fair deal for Sale!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahaha
the white sox went 2 times to the postseason and lost both series, the red sox went 3 and won a world series with sale
its not even break even, the red sox wo the trade by miles
I’m okay on all of that. Was just using it as reference to gauge the trade.
Keep it simple stupid
Sale didn’t win the World Series by himself did he? His stats aren’t mind boggling for the 18 championship run? Pitched 4 innings 5 and 6? Only had one decision struck out 9, 5, and 10. Steve Pierce Won the WS MVP and Jackie Bradley Jr won the ALCS MVP? When did Sale morph into Bob Gibson from the ’67 world series again precisely?
sale played great against the yankees and generally helped the red sox win in the regular season and the world series. that much more important than what moncada did
undo the trade and the red sox might not have won it
Sag..2030 is reasonable that eats 2 arb years..so 6 years at whatever rate is fair seems like a good deal for both sides. And as far as prospects i will say this in any transaction you get what you pay for and in often times you overpay if you can afford to if there is competition ..at the end of the day crochet has more to prove but none the prospects have proven anything at the highest level yet so its a gamble both ways with like both white and red sox come away feeling like winners
Get it DONE!
Agreed % Crochet is worth it, Boston!
He is worth it? Is that based on him being injury prone or his lack of track record? I’m confused on how he is worth it at this point.
soxfan – Red Sox Nation agrees with you, a 6-figure extension right now would be insanity.
But I’m afraid because the Red Sox have backed themselves into a corner, they will feel compelled to do just that. And the end result could severely impact the organization for half a decade.
What kind of mental problems does one have to think they speak on behalf of an entire fan base?
Red Sox Nation applauds your statement.
I just can’t imagine a nine figure extension. There has to be a discount here given he’s only done it once and has injury/disability concerns. He’s projected around $3 mil at arbitration this season. Let’s assume a strong year and lock him in for $10 mil in ‘26. If they paid him Glasnow money for 3 years after at $25 mil per we’re still talking sub $90 mil for 5 years. That’s a big commitment but nothing that should scare the Red Sox given current salaries.
Coop – Thank you!! Haha!!
dan – Red Sox Nation agrees, a 9-figure extension right now seems absurd for someone with virtually no track record.
Unfortunately the desire of some here to immediately give him a huge extension is a symptom of knee-jerk reaction and instant gratification.
As just one example, a year ago some people here were clamoring for the Sox to give Casas a massive extension. And now the team is already actively trying to trade him.
Can’t help but laugh at the hilarity of those who always say “Give him what he wants and give it to him right now”. Haha!
Based on what the dodgers gave glasnow, just read the article
No red Sox nation doesn’t agree
demian – I read the above article, did you?
In the article Tony clearly states Glasnow had just one year remaining before free agency, while Crochet has two years remaining.
And Glasnow was far more proven than Crochet is now.
Glasnow had a 3.20 ERA and 1.025 WHIP over 71 starts and 388 innings pitching for the Rays in the very tough AL East.
Crochet has just 32 career starts (really just 31) and 146 career innings pitching in the weak AL Central …. and his numbers are a bit worse than Glasnow’s.
So no, Crochet doesn’t deserve as much as Glasnow got from the Dodgers.
Speak for yourself, Fever. I would like the Red Sox to sign Crochet to a $140M/6yr deal.
Ran the numbers a little more carefully — I think $160M/6yrs with two club options at the end would be fair. The club options are key, as that reduces the uncertainty that would be in an 8-yr guarantee while more or less guaranteeing that Crochet remains in a Red Sox uni for the rest of his prime.
Wait – I respect your opinion even though I don’t agree with it :O)
Wait – I’ll ask you the same question I asked another, you think Crochet would accept that deal without any opt-outs?
So he gets paid far more for the first two years than he would under arbitration, and then he bounces? How is that a good deal for the Red Sox?
That proposed deal has no opt outs. I believe it is fair to both sides.
I could put together a deal with an opt out, but at that point the numbers would be much much lower. Kind of like the deal Bogaerts signed with the Red Sox. It was well below market value until you noticed the opt-out.
Crochet can try for whatever he wants, but if he wanted that deal AND an opt out he would be trying to have his cake (the early free agency) and eat it too (the large guarantee). No deal.
That’s ridiculous, I think he should be looking at 5 years / 80M tops, and if he doesn’t like it, they should make him play out his two seasons at what arbitration sets his salary at.
If you can’t leverage a player into a team friendly extension while he is under team control than you are giving up value, and that is a big loss to the team. If the player isn’t willing to sign a team friendly extension, then he should play out his rookie contract at a salary set by the arbitrator.
If you lose him in FA after his contract is up, oh well, likely get a pick if you place a QA on the player.
His two arbitration years will likely add up to around $20M. I doubt he would be willing to sell three years for $60M, so would assume that this offer doesn’t get it done.
Playing him for two years and then letting him walk for a draft pick after the first round is an option — just not an option that is worth Teel and Montgomery. If the Red Sox agree with you on Crochet’s value, then it was a very foolish trade to make.
Two seasons of Crochet at what would amount to 10M per is worth what they traded away but only if he pitches up to his ’24 numbers.
Why not take the two seasons at what amounts to a substantial discount, and the opportunity to put a QA on the player in his walk year? If you extend him this season you lose both advantages.
Wait – His 2026 arb salary is totally dependent on how he performs this year, so I don’t think it’s worthwhile to try and guess at this point.
Other than that, great post! Just like I said earlier, the Red Sox have backed themselves into a corner where they basically HAVE TO extend Crochet …. and he knows it. The only question is does he get extended now or after the season.
If you get him on a deal like Mitch Keller, then yeah, it probably is worth it.
Red sox nation has watched thier team finish last and or not make the playoffs too often…those who take no risks get no rewards ..sign him.
With the prospects that the Sox gave up to get him and the level of potential he has (no doubt there is risk), I think they have to lock him up now when they should be able to do it for a reasonable cost rather than have him put together an amazing year and end up out of the range Henry is willing to pay. It is a gamble and he has had injury issues, but he could turn into an ace and end up going to the Yankees as a free agent when his contract expires. If he wants to get paid ace money now, that is a different story, but hopefully he will be reasonable with his contract expectations.
Did i miss something or is your estimate way off? I read he agreed to 3.9 mil this year wheere are you getting 10 mil per or are you thinking he will earn a 16 million dollar raise in next years arb?
Wait – I am with you on the no opt outs.
I really think they will end up extending him, giving him a millie more than projected in arbitration is a sign they are buttering him up. I just hope it’s not crazy stupid money and there’s team options with no buyouts.
Pool – I agree, but there’s good risks and bad risks. Not all risks are the same.
Good risk is buying Nvidia stock, bad risk is buying penny stocks.
The Red Sox have a habit of bad risks and they’ve been burned many times by doing so. Their best investments have always been with proven players such as Manny, Pedro, Damon, Schilling, JDM, etc and more recently Jansen and Martin.
They keep trying to act like they are the smartest person in the room by refusing to pay for players who have proven to be talented and durable, how’s that worked out for them the past 5 years?
Soxfan4381 – We have Cora so things aren’t any better for the future of any pitcher coming from the White Sox. Crochet went straight to relieving and they threw him so much after a year off that he blew out his arm.
Then, he came back and they switched him to starting which he hadn’t done much and he threw enough innings right out of the gate to blow out his arm a second time.
Will that happen? We won’t know until we see how his arm responds from throwing as many innings as he had pitched since he got to college in 2018. Yep, that’s how many innings he pitched last year. Quite a bit considering he was coming back from his first TJ surgery and he’s a strikeout pitcher so everything is max effort.
We shall see. I think injury prone is a bit harsh considering it was the White Sox pitching staff who worked him so much it caused damage to his elbow. Many pitching coaches believe a pitcher should ramp up to a new level not just directly go to like the White Sox do.
Again, we have Cora so god only knows what screwed up thoughts are going through his head with respect to Crochet.
If you grade both Teel and Montgomery as a 50-FV prospect, then the Red Sox gave up some $65M-$70M of talent. If you grade Teel as a 55-FV prospect, that jumps by another $20M. That’s an awfully hefty price to pay for two years of a pitcher, no matter how good. (I agree that he could be worth it if he contends for the CYA.)
I would extend him this year because it is a rare opportunity to buy the prime years of a star talent without committing to several years of decline. If Crochet is worth $100M in salary and prospect talent over the next two years, then why wouldn’t he be worth another $140M of talent over the next four years?
The Qualifying Offer is impactful for a lesser player like Pivetta, but not so much for a star talent. That draft pick would be a very weak return for Teel + Montgomery, two upper-first-round picks.
Arbitration salaries have as much to do with service time and the prior year salary as they do with performance in the immediate year. We can guess with reasonable accuracy – though I won’t insist on the number.
I would extend him now and try to get a pair of club options out of it. Best scenario for all involved. Waiting a year to extend him reduces the uncertainty, but he won’t be giving the team option years if they wait.
@Pool, I think I just screwed up… You are right, this year came in at $4M. I’m seeing estimates of $8M-$10M for next year, which brings that to $12M total not $20M. Not sure where I was getting that $20M?!?
I don’t know why they would feel pressured with how Houck and Crawford have developed. I’m one to say that Crawford is going to have a big season if the Red Sox don’t screw him and give his spot to Giolito.
the “based” reply was to soxfan4381
obviously I read the article and the reporter agrees with crochet getting a smiliat deal to glasnow
the reply directed to you was that the red sox nation doesnt agree with you
Yeah, I’m okay with being out there. If a deal gets done, we’ll see. If not it will remain speculation.
He isn’t worth it. He had a great season. Injury risk is certainly there in the next two seasons.
Say Boston doesn’t extend him and he goes out and pitches like Randy Johnson. You still have the opportunity to resign him at the market value. If you can’t get him to extend on a very team friendly deal
If he doesn’t like the way you handled his contract, and decides to sign with another team when his contract is up, then you find a replacement player in FA. There will certainly be comparable free agents.
You also have two more seasons to develop pitchers in your system.
I don’t see the benefit in locking in a player unless it’s a very team friendly contract. You can’t predict the future. Crochet could blow up this season. Elbow, shoulder, yips, and for that reason he should consider a deal far lower than what a FA expects on the open market. He shouldn’t get close to it.
6/$120 with escalators seems more than fair for a reasonably unproven commodity
Lol
Ya, what’s a loosely knotted doily worth ?
That offer gets laughed right out of the room
There are 2 ways to address the Crochet extension. The first would be to buy out 2 FA years and allow Crochet to return to free agency at age 29. Since Crochet is only projected to earn $20M over the next 2 years ($3M this year and $17M in 2026), an offer of 4/$80M would be reasonable provided that this new contract begins now (2025). That would be buying out 2 free agent seasons at $30M a piece, giving Crochet some life changing money and allowing him to return to free agency at age 29.
The second option would be to lock Crochet up until his age 33 season, which would be an 8 year term. An offer of 8/$200M should be able to get that done, again, provided that the contract starts in 2025. This would average $30M in new money over his 6 free agent seasons. Crochet will have to give a little on AAV in order to secure his fortune now, vs risk waiting 2 more years and hope he’s 100% healthy (and effective) to maximize his AAV and contract term as well.
Dotty – Are you saying no opt-outs or deferred money for the 8-year contract you are proposing?
@Mango: That spitball offer isn’t silly for dollars. Crochet will only make around 12 mil or so in next 2yrs “combined”. Tacking on 4/108 is a whole lot of security for his strong debut year of starting. Extensions aren’t full retail price.
That aside, probably best for both to have good but less security and Crochet reaches FA at strong age to earn a monster deal by performance. Perhaps 4yrs/65mil as example with some tier incentives for CYA winner/top 3/top 5.
20MM AAV for a guy who has one good half season starting and had TJ as while handling a reliever workload is more than a fair price.
If he doesn’t want that, then let him pitch out his deal and go to FA and risk getting hurt before then which would completely kill any big long term deal.
Crochet is currently a top 3 odds favorite to win the 2025 AL Cy Young this year, and there are closers like Edwin Diaz making more than 20 mil per now.
If you can sign him at that rate then you absolutely choose that over having him “prove it” for a year and then suddenly he asks for 35-40 mil per after dominating the AL again.
High – Dominate again? To whom are you referring? Certainly not Crochet, since he didn’t dominate last year. In fact the second half of the season he absolutely sucked despite pitching basically like an opener.
Crochet is #2 at BetMGM at 7/1.
lol What does “fair” have to do with anything? The fact is if a pitcher had the type of year he just had before hitting free agency, he’s getting more than that offer. Whether that’s “fair” to the team is irrelevant, the player isn’t taking this deal ever
If Crochet gets extended after he proves last year was not a fluke they should laden the contract with huge incentives. Give him a practical base salary and then make performance marks highly significant to his wallet. It’s a win-win if he hits them and if he drops off, then he’s paid a fair market price to be a league average pitcher. Give him 5 years with 2026 being the first year and let the AAV be $20Million so $100M for 5 years with $50Million of incentives during the 5 years allowing him to make $30Million a year if he’s great.
Sure, rush into an extension for a guy with literally 10 career good starts. What could possibly go wrong?
Definition of insanity…
I was going to say maybe let the guy get to 175 IP first before taking the dive. I understand that it would be deeper pool then but at least you’ll know the water isn’t boiling hot.
No you’re right, let him win the next 2 Cy Youngs and hit free agency where he’ll cost you double what you can get him for now…
Mango – I’m totally fine with waiting just one year, his potential earning value will not double after just one year.
Then it would be two consecutive injury-free seasons and proof he can give at least 180 innings in a season.
Look at the history of highly touted starting pitchers with virtually no track record, most flamed out due to performance and/or injury.
Handing out contracts based on FOMO is not a smart way to do business, it was just 6 years ago when the Red Sox gave Sale a FOMO contract and that obviously blew up in their face and set back the organization for half a decade.
He’s not winning any Cy Youngs pitching in that pitiful little bandbox.
They extended Bello and he doesn’t even have 10 halfway-decent starts.
let – Exactly! The Red Sox have had this weird fixation with trying to emulate other franchises, except they mess it up by not copying every aspect.
They gave an Acuna-style extension to Rafaela and a Strider-style extension to Bello because the Red Sox wanted to be the Braves, except the Red Sox foolishly didn’t realize the Braves waited until both those players had a very solid season in the majors before giving those extensions …. the Red Sox didn’t wait for Rafaela or Bello to do the same.
It’s like the Red Sox have OCD and went off their meds.
Only a troll out to bash the Red Sox would conclude that things are messed up one year into the Bello and Rafaela extensions.
Totally agree. Both Bello and Rafaela are young and both will be better this year.
The Braves gave Acuna $100M/8yrs. The Red Sox gave Rafaela $50M/8yrs. Not even remotely similar.
Also a gap between Bello and Strider’s deals.
I expect both of these will work out very well for the Red Sox. Talk to me in six years and we can assess them then.
Wait – I totally agree it’s too soon to impose a final verdict on each deal, just like it’s too soon to impose a final verdict on the Grissom trade or the Yoshida contract. Time will tell.
I’m definitely not closing the book on the Grissom trade.
The Yoshida deal has less of a chance of recovering. Early-career players like Grissom, Rafaela, and Bello have a better chance of improving on what they’ve already done than guys in their 30s. The question isn’t so much WHETHER Yoshida declines but HOW FAST?
Wait – I understand you detest Yoshida, but he’s proven during his brief 2-year Red Sox career he’s at least an .850 OPS hitter when he’s at 100%. As for playing the field, I will take Cora’s word that he didn’t play the field last year because of his health. Of course now there’s no room for him in the outfield, which is why he’s better off getting traded.
Actually, if you want a friendly wager on Yoshida’s performance this year I’m game. I say he improves on his 2024 OPS this year as long as he stays healthy.
Speaking of Cora ….. kinda hilarious Winter Storm Cora is heading across the country. Who ever heard of Cora as a first name? I never have.
I’m more interested in overall numbers than in focusing on hot streaks. Yoshida thus far has averaged a .775 OPS, and I’m not seeing much upside to that. Sooner or later his bat speed will fall off and his career will be over — happens to most hitters in their early 30s.
If Yoshida matches/exceeds his 2024 PA and beats on OPS, I’ll happily give you props.
Winter Storm Cora?!? Geez, I thought I only had to worry about him during the summer months.
Yeah, it’s a first name. Not all that common. And reminds me of the film, “Coraline”?
Wait – Yoshida’s bread and butter is his plate discipline, that’s something that doesn’t decline much. He’s an on base machine who rarely strikes out and has the ability to make contact, it’s not like he relies on power with exceptional bat speed. Remember the comparisons to Soto not that long ago? And Ichiro had an .851 OPS at Age 35.
Haha …. I learned something new about the Cora name ;O)
Coraline the animated horror film? Yep that’s appropriate for the current Red Sox manager. Haha!
Maybe our Red Sox manager has a new nickname?
Yoshida’s plate discipline simply hasn’t been all that good. He chased on 29.2% of pitches outside the zone, ranking him #72 out of 207 hitters (min 400 PA last year). If that is his carrying card, that’s a really bad sign.
I don’t believe I’ve ever compared him to Soto…
Bat speed matters for all hitters. When you can no longer do damage, pitchers stop giving you walks.
Wait – I was speaking of others referring to Yoshida as the Japanese Soto :O)
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37858918/boston-red-sox-ro…
I’m with you on Cora’s new nickname!
Those must be the same writers who thought Story would pop 30 HR per year in the heart of the order?
Wait – It was also players such as Adam Jones who compared Yoshida to Soto. Personally I didn’t though.
Don’t get me going on Story! Haha!! I was the only one here who was dead set against the signing, I pointed out the existing injury and the drastic decline in offense for the two years prior to signing here. But of course I was viciously attacked by the giddy people who bought into the hype. Apparently they still sell a lot of Kool-Aid!! Hahaha!!
All – Good point. FYI… Bello’s big numbers (above $10M) don’t start until 2027. Rafaela will be extremely inexpensive as the Red Sox ramp up their roster. Neither is a huge risk but Bello does get a bit pricey after 2027.
Wait – I’m only concerned about the late escalations in Bello’s numbers. Rafaela’s going to be fairly low cost for many years. 2027 is the transition year for Bello. He needs to be completely established as a quality starter by then.
@Sagacity, I’m hoping that Bello puts in a season as a solid #2 (or #3 behind Crochet and Houck) *this* year. I don’t have the patience to watch him struggle until 2027.
But you are right, the years that make or break the deal are the years of free agency that they bought out in the extension. If he has established himself as a valuable pitcher by then, it will be a great deal for the team. If he washes out, then it won’t be.
Let – this is just false. Across his career (2 full seasons + a little of a third) he has a total of 27 quality starts (6ip 3er or less) with 10 coming in 2024.
no guts no glory
red sox showed with bello and rafaela they’ll roll the dice
Dasit – That’s the problem, Red Sox do far too much gambling just to try and save a few bucks and they’ve been burned many times doing it.
Waiting one year won’t cost them that much more money, and could save them over $100M if he gets injured again.
Fever….Or wait another year and he pitches great. Then they pay double and he could still get injured again. It’s a gamble either way.
Shoman – His value will not double in one season.
Gambling is fine on proven pitchers with solid track records like Skubal, but not on a guy with just 10 good career starts coming off TJS.
So what’s the riskier gamble, giving $180M right now or giving $250M after this season?
In the first scenario they are risking $180M, in the second scenario they are paying just $70M more for a lot less risk.
The better business decision is to go with the second scenario.
One year isn’t going to change the injury picture significantly.
A deal today would likely be in the $140M to $160M range over six years, and the Red Sox could likely get a couple club options at the end of that. Makes sense to have the option years later in the deal, when he might or might not be worth the money, rather than the arbitration “option” years that will definitely be picked up.
Harder to justify $250M a year from now, no matter what happens. He could win the Cy Young award and that would still be a stretch.
Wait – I agree, those who think his asking price will “double” after a good 2025 season are kinda silly. I used $180M-$250M to appease those who think he’s that valuable already.
But yes, one year will make a huge difference. I want to see him pitch 180 innings of sub-3.25ERA ball this year. I want him to prove he’s healthy, durable, and can pitch in the Boston environment.
I want to see proof that his horrendous second half last year was just a fluke. Ten good career starts is insane.
Maybe I am the one who should have “WaitTil2026” as my handle ;O)
@Shoman5 Obviously Crochet passed the physical muster for the Red Sox to make the trade. They’ll have several more months to track his pitching data and make a longer-term health assessment and projection. It’s no guarantee either way like you’ve noted.
We have no idea what numbers both sides have spoken of so there’s no correct answer here.
YBC – True that the dollars will be a big factor, which we just don’t know yet.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the physical though.
Obviously Giolito passed his physical when he was signed.
As did Sale at the time of the extension.
As did Paxton at the time of the trade last year.
Etc etc.
Gave my numbers below (above?)… $160M/6yr guarantee with two club options. I believe that would work for both sides.
If the guaranteed money were to approach $180M, or if the option years weren’t included, then I’d be more inclined to wait a year.
Wait – How do you feel about the Red Sox digging in their heels with Duran’s salary for only $500K? After all he did for the team last year? I hope it doesn’t actually go to a hearing, but his not showing up for FSG Fest seems like it could be more than a coincidence.
Speaking of FSG Fest, Devers being removed from the player appearance list on such short notice is just awful. Lots of fans spent the ridiculous $85 motivated by the chance of meeting the biggest star on the team. Did the Red Sox intentionally wait until 2 days before the event to remove his name just so they can sell more tickets?
Such an awful look, the Top Two stars on the team not showing up for the signature event of the offseason. You may get your wish sooner than expected, I wouldn’t be surprised if Devers asks for a trade. At least he doesn’t have any type of no trade protection so he could go to any team.
Many if not most cases that go to arbitration involve relatively small differences like this. The two sides don’t share their arbitration numbers ahead of time, so once in a while they end up filing for almost exactly the same number. I would prefer that the team settle with all players, but they haven’t missed often in recent years.
Also, as a super two player, Duran goes through arbitration four times. His salary this year is a major factor in the equation for next year. Thus the eventual difference in his earnings might be closer to $5M than $0.5M.
Any fans who are foolish enough to pay $85 for that deserve what they get…
Wait – Great points, thank you! Especially about Duran’s 4 years of arbitration, I didn’t even think of that.
I was recently reading elsewhere many of the people voicing their displeasure about FSG Fest, all the changes this year. One parent said she has an autistic son who is dying to meet Devers tomorrow. He is going to be devastated. I know the list was always subject to change, but I f eel for parents and their children in that situation.
Really the event should be free.
Bello and Rafaela locked up pretty team friendly deals. A nine figure deal given crochets injury history and performance isn’t going to be team friendly.
It would be a very risky move that could easily backfire.
The Sox better be sure they didn’t give up four prospects for an unhappy pitcher.
Lets – Without question the huge prospect haul the Red Sox gave up resulted in Crochet getting all the leverage on an extension.
Now the Red Sox are basically forced to extend him, otherwise they gave up a ton of young talent for just a 2-year rental.
When Dombrowski traded for Sale, he gave up less in prospects and he got a proven star SP with 3 years of remaining team control. That’s the difference between a HOF executive like Dombrowski and a newbie like Breslow.
At the time, the prospects traded for Sale were seen as superior — akin to the Red Sox trading Anthony.
I think you are overrating the talent given up. Perhaps they blossom and prove me wrong, but there is no certainty of that.
Wait – Moncada was rated slightly higher than Teel, but prospect rankings don’t take into account positional value, Teel’s value as a potential quality catcher would exceed Moncada’s value at the time as a potential quality 2B/3B. Not to mention the fact catching depth is now extremely thin for the Red Sox, whereas the Red Sox had plenty of talent at 3B/2B when Moncada was traded.
Montgomery is definitely the better prospect than Kopech was at that time. I am neutral on the other two traded for Crochet, time will tell.
No, prospect rankings definitely take positional value into account. I agree they don’t take team-specific scarcity into account, so losing Moncada hurt less than losing Teel regardless of whether or not he was seen as the better prospect.
I would rate the trade package similar to that given up for Sale, but a solid notch behind. Teel behind Moncada and Montgomery behind Kopech. But there is enough uncertainty that it could easily go the other way. Moncada and Kopech worked out pretty poorly for the White Sox.
Wait – But we all know how the prospects are valued at the time of the trade is just as important as how the prospects perform throughout their MLB career. It’s sort of like NPV vs Future Value.
It’s like trading Thor for Dickey. If you’re the Jays and Thor becomes a bust right after the trade, does that make the deal any better for the Jays? Of course not, because Thor could have returned a much better player than Dickey.
Both were injured during their time with the White Sox. Moncada had a great season, developed into a excellent third baseman, and got paid. Couldn’t stay on the field. Kopech had injuries and had issues with walks. This is a guy who was hitting 105 on the gun, an arm injury really puts your approach in question when you throw like that. It’s more difficult. Still learning how to pitch in a way that is less strenuous. Have to refocus mentally. But he still sits high nineties and I saw him hit 100 a couple times in the playoffs. I think the Dodgers got a real bargain of a relief pitcher. He could be a top flight closer.
That misjudges how a competent GM (assuming, arguendo) sees this.
Those prospects are GONE and they’re not coming back.
That you dealt 4 promising prospects for Crochet has no more meaning than does your having thrown $500,000 into the pot at a hand of hold’em affect your current valuation of how to proceed as of the turn card.
It’s not an ‘investment’ you’re protecting. Whether those prospects all turn into stars or all bust has no affect or influence on the projected value of Crochet to the Red Sox.
SEE also, “Sunk Cost Fallacy.”
What has happened between the trade and today to turn him into a “Sunk Cost”?!? Did I miss an injury?
His outlook is the same today that it was then. Nothing has changed. If he is worth trading a 55- and a 50- prospect to acquire, not to mention the other pieces, then he is worth extending on the deal I suggested.
If he isn’t worth extending, then they overpaid – badly – to acquire him.
Pick your argument, but you definitely can’t have it both ways.
Honestly don’t know how to value this guy dollar wise. I see how the Sox valued him prospect wise but there’s just not a lot of track record to toss silly money his way.
this is why gm’s get paid the big bucks. breslow could strike gold and be a hero or end up with another kung fu panda
While actual discussions beforehand could not be done, hopefully backdoor discussions through indirect channels gave both sides a loose framework of an expected deal. That said, there are no guarantees and the prospects were exchanged knowing this.
dewey – Food for thought … when the Red Sox evaluate how much to offer him, how many projected innings are they using in their calculations and how much would a 6-man rotation impact their extension offer?
If he’s gonna pitch 18% fewer innings with a 6-man rotation, I would think they offer him 18% less than market value …. right?
This is also how GM’s get fired. I hope it works out but so many questions.
dasit – Panda was a mistake not just because of his weight issue, but also because his numbers had drastically declined for 3 straight years. His OPS went from .909 in 2011 down to .789 in 2012 and .758 in 2013 and then .739 in 2014. I’ve said a million times, stay away from players who have declined consecutive years. I said this about Story, I said this about Giolito, the list goes on and on.
It was one of the dumbest mistakes the Red Sox could possibly make, I strongly argued against giving that contract. It’s a perfect example why fans shouldn’t always assume the front office knows what they are doing …. quite often, they do not.
I would offer him a deal near top reliever money, at or just under 20MM a year. Add in an injury clause like the Lackey deal and it isn’t awful. This way, if he does get hurt (which given his previous work load and injury history is likely), the Sox aren’t paying top starter money for a guy who might be in the bullpen.
Every pitcher simply needs to make sure they self imposes an innings limit until he gets a free agent contract. A team will have no problem cutting him loose if he gets hurt due to over usage. Example: Matt Harvey, who the old Mets ownership unleashed a negative PR machine against when his agent attempted to do exactly that despite the player wanting to pitch irrespective of the risks.
I agree 100%. Teams don’t care for you, especially in the final year of your contract. Plenty of teams have over-used young guys, even when there was some science to the numbers.
Once a team signs you, it becomes their risk, and if they want to take the injury risk, that’s fine.
Well, yeah. He’ll refuse to pitch in the playoffs if they don’t.
explode – That says a lot about how Crochet feels about his own health, the fact he was so concerned about his health last summer that he demanded an extension as a condition for pitching in the postseason. It was a major red flag to many teams, and a big reason why he wasn’t traded last summer.
Crochet’s innings were way higher than they had ever been last year. So, I’m not surprised Crochet was concerned.
While I appreciate the Sox trying lock him up before it costs them a fortune let’s pull the brakes. This is yet another SP with former injury issues that just completed his first season as a starter. Let’s chill before we go and give him 6 more years or so as we haven’t even seen him pitch for us. At least give it this season. You’ve got 2 years before he hits FA. What is going on in that front office?
Quinn – Excellent post! I really enjoy your posts and appreciate how you utilize logic, it’s a welcome sight here.
At least give it this season.
====================
If he repeats his 2024 numbers, with maybe 30 more innings, his price goes through the roof.
Yes you are right but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. If you shell out a big contract now and he flops then we lose a ton of money for a could be and the 4 prospects. You have to wait this year out.
Again I hope for the best… when we gave the farm for Sale he had a much more proven track record.. I hope GC can bring us WSC like Sale.. as for extension ?? If you do and he’s hurt/ brutal etc your burned … if he’s sandy K junior and you don’t he skips town after 2 years like so many others… 5 Year’s 100 million.. how could he say no with his health history ( or something close to those numbers)..
olm – There’s also a third option, wait until after this season and then decide to give him an extension.
The fact he was so concerned about his health last summer that he demanded an extension as a condition for pitching in the postseason was a major red flag to many teams and a big reason why no team traded for him last summer. He wouldn’t bet on himself 6 months ago, I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes for an extension now out of fear another TJS is on the horizon.
I hope he either says no thanks I’m betting on myself or demands a huge salary. Make them pay.
“However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline.”
38.2IP, 8HR allowed, 5.12ERA, 1.397 WHIP
I don’t see how this increases his contract demands from his first half. If anything, it should decrease it because he was significantly less effective in much shorter outings.
I believe it was more about him staying healthy and adding innings. It is pretty common for pitchers to tire and regress when they reach new innings totals, but then improve the next year when their new baseline has been established.
Just because he pitched some innings in the second half doesn’t mean he’s healthy.
The Red Sox already have a pitcher who had a great first half of a season with the CWS,ineffective 2nd half, was acquired by the Red Sox and then promptly had TJ. Lucas Giolito.
Yes, handling a starters workload is very difficult. That’s why it is very risky to give Crochet a 9 figure extension given his performance and injury history.
Giolito went through a divorce in the second half of 2023 before the Red Sox signed him.
Did the divorce also lead to his TJ?
If Crochet isn’t going through a divorce, what’s his reasoning for his abysmal 2nd half of 2024 numbers?
LOL! Joemo replied to me and put on me on mute and ran away.
Joemo: I don’t know the answers to those questions and neither do you. So, I choose to stay positive.
You’re right, I don’t know the answer. But I base my opinions on evidence. Crochet had a very good first half of baseball and then a very sharp decline in the second half in abbreviated innings. Does that warrant a 9 figure extension given his injury history? No.
Look at Jesus Luzardo. If the Marlins gave him a 9 figure extension after 2023 they’d look quite foolish right now.
I hope that Crochet comes out and kills it for the Sox in 2024 while handling the workload of an ace, but all evidence points to that being very unlikely.
Joemo: You should really take me off of mute, so I don’t have to keep replying to my own comments to answer you.
There really isn’t a lot of evidence about Crochet. So, I think predicting his future is a bit difficult. If Breslow and Bailey like his mechanics of think they can improve his mechanics to where they like them, I think he has a bright future. Let’s see what an extension looks like if it happens.
or think
You aren’t muted, if you were I wouldn’t be able to see your comments and reply 🙂 so not sure what’s going on there.
And I’d be fully on board for an extension that gives him top tier reliever money, but it sounds like crochet will want more than that.
If they could get him for say 20MM AAV with an injury clause like Lackey it’s win-win. Add in some escalators based on cy young votes, IP, etc.
So 5/100 + injury clause + escalators. I’d want to keep one of the arbitration years at least as well. So that gives him long term security while mitigating the risk for both sides.
But if he wants to get paid top starter money, I just think that’s far too risky.
OK. Well, I have no option to reply to you. I’m not really sure what a good extension for Crochet would be at this point. Maybe they are really low balling him now and will increase their offer as he proves more durable.
Here’s a simple framework:
Start from Burnes, $210M/6yrs. Crochet has a (much) better strikeout rate and is five years younger. Burnes is more “proven” and thus far durable. To some extent those two factors balance.
Knock the next two years down from $70M to the $20M that he would get in arbitration. We’re now at $160M/6yrs. Add a pair of club/vesting options at $35M each. Easily worth it if he is healthy and effective at the end of the prior period, but not part of the guarantee. This makes up for the risk that the club is taking on in giving him a guaranteed deal early.
That’s the offer – $160M/6yrs with two options potentially bringing the total deal to $230M/8yrs. I believe that is *much* better than waiting two years and then trying to land him as a free agent. At the very least the Red Sox would need to guarantee those two option years — and most likely a couple more after that.
It isn’t the next two years that are the most uncertain, it is how Crochet ages into his mid-30s. I don’t think the next two years will tell us much about that.
Wait: I see your logic. What is your take on Crochet’s pitching mechanics? If they are pretty clean, then I am all for a deal like that. If not, I am a bit hesitant and leaning more toward a smaller commitment or he walks in two years and they get a draft pick.
I haven’t seen him pitch more than a couple times, but he looked sound to me. If he isn’t worth the contract I suggest, then he isn’t worth the trade price. You don’t recoup sufficient value in two years.
That’s incorrect if the Red Sox see their window as the next 2 years, in which case it makes abundant sense to deal for the ace you can afford with players who won’t significantly contribute during that window.
An extension is gravy in that case. In addition, the Red Sox also have the option of trading Crochet at the Deadline if they bust, or at the end of the year if they were in contention, but the window appears to have closed—at which point they may well recoup close to what they traded for Crochet.
And if he’s simply bad, they’ll be glad they didn’t agree to an extension.
If the Red Sox believe they are going to contend for the World Series with this roster this year, they are delusional.
If this is as good as it gets, and their window of contention closes after 2026, then I’m quite disappointed.
Teel would have contributed this year.
bass – You are 100% correct about tiring and regressing, in fact that’s exactly what happened with Crawford and to a lesser extent Houck.
However the ChiSox drastically cut Crochet’s workload on July 1st …. that’s really early for a pitcher to start tiring. I think most would feel more comfortable if his workload had been reduced in August or September. And his performance wasn’t declining going into July, in fact it was improving.
It’s almost like the ChiSox had major concerns about his health, and that’s why they decided to slash his innings so quickly.
I think you sign the stuff.
He has an awesome repertoire and is young. He’s only posted one pretty good year, but I think you move forward with the big contract and trust that he will continue to ascend. Trust that Bailey will keep him moving in the right direction.
swan – I don’t think anyone questions his talent.
It’s his health that has everyone concerned, his ability to give 180 innings and stay off the IL. That has nothing to do with Bailey.
“Pretty good year.” SIGH.
Compare Crochet’s year with Jacob deGrom’s Rookie of the Year season. They’re very, very close in value, particularly if you get past the ERA in front of a terrible defense and stick to FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and peripheral stats (HR/9, WHIP, BB/9, K/9….).
The number of pitchers capable of putting up Crochet’s 2024 is vanishingly small. .
Exactly. And that’s why he is worth offering a $160M/6yr deal with a pair of club options as sweetener for the team.
5/110 with escalators based on starts and Cy Young votes. He gets that first big contract that protects him from injury with a 22MM AAV, with the escalators offering the potential to get it up to a 28-30MM AAV. The Red Sox are guaranteed to have him for five years, with the only way he gets up to the $30MM number is pitching as a legitimate ace. He’ll still be at a below market AAV. The underlying numbers indicate he was as good Skubal last year, but throttled by innings restrictions and by playing for a really bad team.
As a Yankee fan, I hope he bets on himself and is a free agent in two years, but there’s likely a number here that works for both sides.
The innings restrictions didn’t allow him a third time through a batting order so I would approach those numbers with some apprehension.
It looks like he pitched to the third time through the order in 17 games – I’m guessing all in the first half: baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=croch…
And the numbers surprised me when I first looked at them. It looks like he only averaged like 4 batters that third time through so against the top of the order those numbers, on the surface, look great.
By no means am I putting Crochet down. Only things to look out for.
Oh I agree 100%. I am very nervous re:Crochet as I think he is a very risky addition. I feel like half of my posts here since the trade have been about Crochet, why he’s very risky, why I preferred other additions, etc.
I was just very surprised when I saw those stats.
Going deep in games, and staying healthy are the two most important things in my opinion for SP. If he can’t do either of those, a return to the bullpen should be in his future.
He had a .547 OPS the third time thru, with a 7.0 K/W. And that by definition is facing the #1-4 batters.
Right now the risk is on the player. Until he gets the longer-term contract with guaranteed money he’s just one tight forearm away from trouble. He obviously knows that–that’s what his stand last season meant. He’s controlled until 2027–that’s two years of risk unless he signs. Both sides know that.
Extend him sure, SIGN BREGMAN AND SCOTT! SPEND THE MONEY
lol it’s very hard when Breslow and Henry are shopping at goodwill and also seeing which color the sale is on the junk too. They need to go
Spending around the luxury tax threshold every year is not shopping at goodwill.
I hear you, but it is when the only guys were picking up are unprovens, injured, soon to be injured, have injury pasts, or used to be goods. It’s unfortunate but in order to win it all the Sox do need to spend some money
It’s been my opinion that they are spending enough money, but they need to spend it better.
They need more high end talent. You get a bigger impact from a single star than from a pair of second tier starters (e.g. Vlad vs. Casas and Bregman) regardless of what the total WAR suggests.
The first step to building a team is to accumulate a lot of ML-quality talent. The second step is to execute trades to convert as much of that as possible to star talent.
If you whiff on that second step, you end up with permanent mediocrity. The Crochet acquisition is easily the biggest trade/signing since 2018.
Makes sense. So, they are in the second step now, right?
Would hope so…
Wait – Well said. But are they really in the second step. Lets check the facts quickly.
Star fielders
Duran – Approaching free agency and being short changed in arbitration. His estimate was $4.1M he asked for less and they low balled him. Will he be here?
Devers = I don’t consider him a star as much as an Albatross or primadonna might be a better word. The big money will keep him here and ruining each season for the pitchers. At 30, he may have two good years left for his hitting.
NO OTHER STARS AT HITTING
Potential future stars in Campbell, Anthony and Casas. They will be key to Boston’s future success.
Pitching Stars –
Houck – Still not signed long term
Crochet – Not signed long term and cost the team a fortune of prospect wealth for two seasons of his pitching’
Giolito – A year into the contract no performance yet. Could be May before he’s truly ready and if he does well nothing suggests he’ll sign here if he does very well and if he doesn’t perform well we don’t want him here
Buehler – Great candidate for one and gone. If he has great success he’ll sign a contract much bigger than we are willing to pay so we have him ONE year but that’s better than NONE for the 2025 season. It’s not so great for continuity in your pitching staff.
Sandoval – See Giolito. His deal works the same way. I’ll take a year of waiting then if he shines he leaves
Our FUTURE if you look at SPOTRAC comes down to
a 2027 Roster that includes
1 – A 30 year old Devers with a year or two left in the tank
2 – A 34 year old Story on his last contract year
3 – A 33 year old Yoshida on his last contract year.
4 – A 26 year old Rafaela with 6 years left on a cheap contract
5 – A 28 year old Bello in his last low priced year with 3 left
6 – A 31 year old Whitlock under club options for $10Million
The rest of the roster is composed of controllable guys without contracts as of the start of 2025
So are we in Phase 2? Or is the hitting in Phase 2 and the pitching paused in Phase 1 until we get some extensions because they could all be gone by 2027.
Not sure you are reading the service time correctly? The roster is largely intact through 2027, aside from Crochet and the one-year deals. They need more star talent, and they need to sign Crochet, but they are not in imminent danger of losing what they have.
Wait – They have six players listed above.
Who is not signed for 2027?
1 – Crochet
2 – Buehler
3 – Giolito
4 – Sandoval
5 – Hendriks
6 – Chapman
7 – Houck (Not signed FA in 2028)
8 – Duran (Not signed FA in 2029)
9 – Crawford (Not signed FA in 2029)
10 – Wilson
11 – Refsnyder
12 – REST of the ROSTER (Pre-arb)
So we use a 26 man roster and it’s going to be 2025 and here is the status of the players:
C – Wong FA 2029 not signed
1B – Casas FA 2029 not signed
2B – Campbell/Grissom FA 2030 or later
SS – Story FA 2028 signed
3B – Devers FA 2034 (YIPES) signed unfortunately
LF – Anthony FA after 2030 Abreu FA 2030
CF – Duran FA 2029 not signed
RF – Rafaela FA 2032 signed
DH – Yoshida FA 2028 signed
The hitting side looks good no need to rush into any more contracts. Duran and Casas in a year or so need to get locked in.
SPs
Crochet – FA 2027 NO CONTRACT
Buehler – FA 2026 MUTUAL OPT OUT
Giolito – FA 2026 VESTING OPTION for 2026
Sandoval – FA 2027 Under Contract
Houck – FA 2028 NO CONTRACT
Crawford – FA 2029 NO CONTRACT
Bello – Signed to 2029 with Club OPTION 2030 $21Million
Whitlock – FA 2027 Team options for 27&28
ALL OTHER PITCHERS – FA 2030 or Later
The pitching hasn’t been addressed!!!! That’s what I am talking about!!!
Likely to lose both Buehler and Giolito after 2025
Likely to lose both Crochet and Sandoval after 2026
Houck our next best is not signed FA in 2028
Crawford has time
Bello is signed
Whitlock has 2 years left
These are our primary pitchers. Nothing is set and it’s highly likely based on money constraints that we will lose our top new FOUR pitchers by 2027 and hopefully they will sign Houck at some point before FA doesn’t become his favorite choice because he has a huge year like he could in 2025.
You are right we need more talent thanks to Bloom and we need it to stay longer than a year or two with one year being an injured year. Our hitting looks great it’s just the pitching that is still a disaster until the new pitchers prove themselves and get extended. That or ownership needs to start opening their pockets for pitching in 2026.
Sorry, Sagacity, I’m confused by your notation, but it doesn’t much matter whether a player is signed or not unless they are eligible for free agency.
These are the guys who could leave as a free agent this year or next:
1 – Crochet
2 – Buehler
3 – Giolito
4 – Sandoval
5 – Hendriks
6 – Chapman
7 – Wilson
8 – Refsnyder
Thus I have put a priority on extending Crochet — if the team is serious about ever contending they NEED to be willing to extend star talent. Buehler was always just a one-year rental. And I’m not going to shed tears over the rest.
Sox better hope & pray crochet remains healthy & stays in boston bc they gave up a ton of offensive talent for a questionable sp
Its a gamble either way with any pitcher now a days….If he pitches 200 innings and wins the Cy Young then I think his value would double. Im sure you can bet on it some where….He defiantly has the upside but these guys can be done after one pitch. Look at DeGrom he was just Dominant and cashed in and hasn’t pitched for two years and that guy Strasburg is retired early and making Millions. Basically roll the dice!
AK – Exactly!! Both of those guys you mentioned had injury concerns going into the last contract they signed. The Rangers and Nats were absolutely nuts to hand out those contracts. But some people just don’t learn. SMH
He won’t pitch more than four innings a start without an extension.
lark – I agree, his demands are ridiculous. Why haven’t people hammered him for the extension demand last summer? He’s got no right to tell teams he refuses to pitch without an extension that’s to his liking.
The same people condoning his behavior are trashing Devers for not wanting to switch positions, why is that? Hopefully it’s not a racist thing.
Agreed! You are under contract. Go pitch until we take you out of the game.
Please, no. Make him show he can replicate the first half of last year over a full season first. There’s no rush here.
Sign him. I said the same thing about Sale, and that was half-right and half-wrong, but there are very few pitchers out there with that type of talent.
I’m not sure that we can fully understand the level of talent from a converted reliever that refused to pitch in the postseason without a contract extension. Does he know something about his own elbow that we don’t? The White Sox also didn’t let him pitch more than a few innings at a time down the stretch. If you get Sale or Cole money, then you better be ready to take the ball.
I think Basically it all boils down to this is a business and if he blows his elbow out without yet cashing in on an extension and getting the Sale or Cole money then he was not willing to take that chance. Not saying I agree with that, but i can see the logic.
Im at a dilemma here, been a sox fan for a long time growing up in the great north east, since I have moved on but often visit back east yearly from Alaska….not a cheap trip with kids! Wife recently surprised me with 4 tickets to a sox game in May. With all the frustration Im having with the sox ownership being so darn cheap (GOING TO ABRITRATION WITH DURAN!)…REALLY OVER 500K!
im thinking about hopefully refunding those tickets and saving my self a chunk of money. Its been 40 years since I last went to a game. I think ill wait and see how the rest of the sox cold stove season goes and go from there.
AK – Not to make it worse but the Duran thing…. the money websites that projects arbitration amounts had Duran higher than he actually asked for as his fair market value. How petty is it that the ownership group is squeezing every nickel as if they were hurting for money. They have one two way all-star on the roster in Duran and they squeezed him. Is it any wonder that guys like Mookie asked for fair market value knowing ownership would be pushing the home town discount like they had since they bought the team. Cheap. Rich but incredibly cheap to their players. Reminds me of George Halas of the Bears when Dikta commented
“George Halas throws nickels around like man hole covers.”
Duran deserved better treatment from the start. He’s a perfect candidate for a player who will want out of Boston as soon as possible because of the ownership, front office and crappy manager.
Duran is in Boston through 2028, unless they choose to trade him. He is not eligible for free agency before then.
It may be unfair to Duran, but given how late he broke into the league, the club has no incentive to give him a long term deal. I expect he will be here for four years and then leave as a free agent.
He won’t get Sale or Cole money, which is part of the point of the extension. And he was right to refuse to overwork his arm without an extension. I’d have done the same thing. You have to put yourself first.
Solid points, I truly hope he’s everything the Sox think he will be. However he sounds more and more like a lemon.
How is more and more like a lemon. He hasn’t thrown a pitch yet.
Breslow was put into an impossible situation he knew that the Red Sox needed to increase the ceiling of the rotation. It’s also quite clear that ownership isn’t willing to give 30 year old pitchers long term contracts despite saying they were all in on the top pitchers we all know that was lip service.
It would have been so easy to sign one of those guys and then Buehler and then Breslow could have kept his catcher of the future and the ceiling on this team’s rotation would be just as high. Instead Breslow had to pivot and trade a lot of talent for a potential tor ace arm. There were a lot of teams that wanted this guy but Breslow used that farm system strength to get his man. Losing Teel was tough he’s the big loss here the rest of the guys were superlative or haven’t played an inning in professional baseball and coming off a serious injury. Breslow did what he thought he needed to do.
Interesting article today on bleacher report MLB execs voted the Red Sox as still having the best farm system in baseball coming into the season and why not according to mlb they 3 of the top 10 in baseball. Interestingly they were voted as the second best drafting team over the last few years behind only the Dodgers. It’s two early to grade Breslow’s drafts and international signings but it’s pretty clear pitching is going to be a priority in the draft moving forward.
Let’s hope that ownership is at least willing to pay for pitching talent under 30 on long term contracts. When Henry said baseball players are expensive quote no duh but I would argue being an owner of especially a big market team is a privilege and you are the steward of the team and it’s clear other big market teams are willing to pay for those guys. The American League is down right now and it’s winnable the Yankees to be the best team in the AL but they are one Aaron Judge injury from being very vulnerable. It’s just a damn shame ownership wasn’t willing to go “ full throttle” to win the AL.
With the uncertainty of signing an extension, signing a one time wonder like Crochet at the cost of ONE certain star catcher, one likely star outfielder and one likely star 2B was a bad choice by Breslow because the odds are very bad that he’ll get an extension. Therefore, 2 years of pitching for 3 excellent young prospects. The only potential pretender in the group was the pitcher. Unlike Dombrowski sending pretenders in Moncada, Kopech Basabe and Diaz.to get Sale, we sent our legit prospects rather than guys like Mayer, Bleis and Romero. And for what? Two years of Crochet? Best case, he performs up to last year. Worst case he’s a bust and we lost the Catcher who was going to be our next Varitek, Fisk or even Gedman. We lost a centerfielder with 5 tool skills and who mistakenly fell to us in the draft. And we lost an unsung quality infielder who has out performed Mayer every step of his career. FOR TWO YEARS of Crochet if he doesn’t sign the extension.
Breslow cooked up the deal and needs to be a man and take the heat for his stupidity. Blaming the ownership for creating a framework to work within challenged him to think out of the box, not to gamble with some of your best farm system players. The Red Sox are incredibly depleted as a farm system and in a year it will be a disaster because both Campbell and Anthony will have graduated leaving NEXT TO NOTHING in the farm system that will contribute to the MLB team in the next several years.
Again, these mistakes of Giolito, Sandoval and Crochet are all on Breslow and Breslow alone. If Buehler also escapes Boston without an extension or a reason to be extended, that too is on Breslow and ONLY Breslow.
There was a myriad of ways to put together a pitching staff knowing your constraints and Breslow chose to gamble without a plan for maintaining the iffy the players he was banking on. The 2027 roster is likely to not include Buehler, Sandoval, Giolito and Crochet but the CWS will still be reaping the benefits of a naive GM giving them their actual quality prospects in Teel, Montgomery and Meidroth.
For me, Breslow has acted foolishly and nobody forced him into it. Best case Boston might have a good 2025 and then fall back to being a .500 team in 2026 and beyond because the farm will be barren and the team will be woefully short of pitching once again. The temp fix he has created will vanish in two seasons without signing extensions.
Oh and the BS about the great drafting is laughable. We just gave CWS the best pick in this year’s draft and the best pick in the 2023 draft. So technically, the White Sox now have the best drafting team over the last few years behind the Dodgers. But lets face it, the bleacher report is complete BS as well so does it really matter how great the drafts were since we gave away the top picks that supposedly built our reputation. Apparently the guy picking didn’t believe in them that much otherwise he would have used the pretenders in the trade not the real future stars like he did.
Let’s breakdown this statement shall we. First Teel was a big loss I am a big believer in Teel it’s an area of weakness in otherwise very deep farm system. Calling Teel a certain star is crazy is he a likely big league catcher yes I can agree with that. As far as Braden Montgomery he’s played an inning in professional ball does he have talent sure but his biggest question is the hit tool. Here’s where we differ the most I also like Chase Meidroth but the big question with him can he make enough hard contact? His exit velocities are are really low big league pitchers aren’t going to walk this guy they are going to make him hit his way on base not to mention he is superfluous as a utility guy he’s not as good as defensively as Nick Sogard. He’s really not that good defensively he’s really good at getting on base but if big league pitchers aren’t afraid of him hitting the ball they just won’t walk him.
These guys with the exception of Teel are question marks. Sure Braden Montgomery could be a great player but will he be better then who the Red Sox already have doubt it, he’s superfluous and a guy they can trade to get a talent like Crochet.
There is no question in my mind and any sane person that if ownership was willing to give contracts to Fried and Burnes then we would still have Teel by far the biggest loss of the trade.
Just because you can’t admit that Bloom’s regime didn’t do a good job with drafting and international signings doesn’t make it true. He has built an outstanding and extremely deep farm system. The Red Sox farm is extremely deep right now the perception is position players but the wise prognosticators are starting to see the pitching talent it’s there. Your assertion that the farm is barren after the big three matriculate is uneducated at best. This is a very deep farm system that is going to pay dividends for years to come. It’s just interesting that execs from other teams are realizing what is happening the Red Sox have been having excellent draft for years now. The talent is starting to show it’s real and it’s homegrown in the minors.
Bruin1012 – So much of what you say is just BS opinions like hard contact. You are speculating whether a guy can make hard contact. Can you tell me what pitches will be thrown to him too? That’s why your comment is pure BS.
Sogard isn’t in the picture in Boston. He’s a back-up at best. It was either going to be Grissom or Campbell or Meidroth depending on whether they could open their minds up and recognized how bad Mayer has been. If they did, Campbell would have been the SS and Meidroth the 2B unless an exec is secretly supporting him and caused the horrible trade they got him in.
Go to ROTOWIRE and count the great farm system guys for the Red Sox now that Breslow emptied the cupboards except for Campbell and Anthony.
Roman Anthony (3) (OF)
Kristian Campbell (7) (2B)
Marcelo Mayer (43) (SS)
Franklin Arias (79) (SS)
Yordanny Monegro (140) (P)
Mikey Romero (178) (SS)
Luis Perales (188) (P)
Yoeilin Cespedes (213) (2B)
Jedixson Paez (223) (P)
Miguel Bleis (257) (OF)
Jhostynxon Garcia (275) (OF)
Connelly Early (277) (P)
Justin Gonzales (321) (1B)
David Sandlin (324) (P)
Conrad Cason (358) (P)
Juan Valera (362) (P)
Richard Fitts (P)
Dalvinson Reyes (P)
Blaze Jordan (1B)
Payton Tolle (P)
That’s your great farm system. Mayer dropping like an anvil to 43 and Arias the lone player standing in the top 100 once Campbell and Anthony break camp on the MLB roster. There are no impact players for the next several years.
Uneducated is the perfect word to describe the bull crap you are shoveling related to the Farm System. Making crap up about what executives are thinking is pathetic. What BS. Are the execs calling you to tell you this or is just your mind trying to rationalize how to sell your BS?
The minors are BARE. Two guys go to the MLB and all your hype fabricated over the last year is GONE!!! Thank Breslow for that. Too bad he didn’t clear out Mayer before he gets DFA’d. His value is the highest it will be right now so he should have traded the slug.
Do you know what the word educated means? It’s not what you make up in your head!! hahahaha Were you looking in the mirror when the big word uneducated popped into your head? Seriously, your knowledge of baseball is sorely lacking and for you to PREACH which is what you do, about things you know nothing about is a joke. Tell me again how good Jeter Downs is going to be. Do you still see him in your crystal ball?
You are correct, the graduation of Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer, and the trade of Teel and Montgomery, will significantly weaken what remains. I’m less certain it will be “bare”, but to keep the pipeline flowing will require guys to step up.
On the other hand, a farm system that delivers Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel, and Montgomery in graduation or trade, has done plenty for a year or two. The whole idea is to get players in the majors.
I have news for you KD every team and I mean every team uses advanced analytics. Do you want to know why? The reason why if you don’t you are a dinosaur in baseball analytics. How hard a player hits the ball matters, how they hit the ball matters. By far the biggest indicator of a high batting average is if hit line drives and especially hard line drives. By far the most damaging ball in play is an infield fly ball, they almost never turn into hits. Meidroth’s profile is hitting line drives and ground balls. He doesn’t hit many balls in the air this is good for him because he doesn’t hit it hard enough to be fly ball hitter. He does hit quite a few infield fly balls which is very damaging since we already know without a doubt infield fly balls are the most damaging in play ball for your batting average. Based on these characteristics I believe pitchers at the big league level are just going to challenge him up in the zone. It’s likely to cause his in field fly ball percentage to go up. He hits a ton of balls on the ground but since he doesn’t hit it very hard they are far less to turn into hits. Nick Madrigal hit a bunch of line drives and ground balls in the minors but he doesn’t hit it very hard so big league pitchers just knocked the bat out of his hands and his minor league didn’t translate to the bigs. They just aren’t afraid of him. I think advanced analytics tell us exactly why Meidroth never sniffed a top 100 prospect despite numbers that may indicate he should have been. He’s scrappy maybe he makes the adjustments but the odds are against him.
Marcelo Mayer otoh hits the ball extremely hard with elite bat speed. You simply can’t get a fastball even high end fastballs past this guy. He does struggle with spin especially down and in and this is a concern but unlike Meidroth who’s margin for error is small due to slow bat speed all Mayer has to do is recognize spin a little better and he could close that loop hole. I’m quite sure that this is why he is a top 10 prospect and baseball and Meidroth isn’t. Rotowire looks at old fashioned stats only it appears to me it’s perfect for you KD. Dynasty Dugout looks at both stats and advanced analytics and is probably a better resource for overall prospect evaluation.
Let him pitch in that little bandbox for a year, and see if he wants to extend in Boston.
Sale 2.0
Can’t wait for the Sox to blow a boat load of cash on him.
Cool. That means the Red Sox will win a World Series with him.