The Opener: Ogasawara, Potential Trades, Contreras

Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today:

1. Ogasawara’s posting window:

The Chunichi Dragons posted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara for MLB clubs on December 10, giving him until January 24 to sign a deal. That deadline is fast approaching. If he and his reps at WME don’t strike an agreement with an MLB team by tomorrow, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for the 2025 campaign.

Ogasawara, 27, was an NPB All-Star for the first time in 2023 and was arguably even better this past year, reducing his ERA from 3.59 to 3.12 and increasing his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 3.27 to 3.73. He also lowered his home run rate from 0.8 HR/9 to 0.6 HR/9. However, it’s important to keep in mind that runs are harder to come by in NPB than MLB, and Ogasawara’s numbers aren’t exactly dominant by NPB standards. His ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate were all worse than the Central League average in 2024. His strikeout rate was at 24% as recently as 2022 but has dipped in each of the past two years, bottoming out at a discouraging 13.6% this past season. That said, this year’s 3.7% walk rate was phenomenal. His plus command could help him land a spot at the back of a team’s rotation, though it’s possible he’d fit better in a bullpen role in MLB. Readers looking to learn more about the lefty can check out a detailed scouting report on Ogasawara from Sports Info Solutions’ Brandon Tew.

Very little news has come out about Ogasawara since he was posted, making it difficult to gauge his market and even harder to predict what size of contract he might sign. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM deal for Ogasawara when we ranked him at No. 48 on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this offseason, based largely on his youth and command.

2. Waiting for the next notable trade:

While the trade market has been relatively slow so far in January, the rumor mill has remained active. The Dodgers are reportedly gauging interest in right-handed reliever Ryan Brasier, while the Twins and Padres are said to have discussed a deal involving catcher Christian Vazquez. Minnesota also has interest in Padres ace Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ bullpen search has led them to consider trading for veteran Astros reliever Ryan Pressly, though his no-trade rights could make that difficult.

The biggest name still on the trade market is third baseman Nolan Arenado. While reports have suggested Arenado is now less likely to be dealt than he was earlier in the offseason, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he is still trying to find a deal. However, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. recently suggested an Arenado trade isn’t a necessity, and his club isn’t desperate to cut payroll in 2025. Perhaps that means Arenado will stay in St. Louis after all, or perhaps those comments are intended to give the Cardinals some extra leverage — be it in Arenado negotiations or in potential trade talks for other veterans on the roster.

3. Roansy Contreras DFA resolution:

The Orioles designated right-handed reliever Roansy Contreras for assignment last week after claiming infielder Jacob Amaya. That kicked off a seven-day countdown for the O’s to either trade Contreras or run him through waivers. Today marks the end of that week-long period. The waiver process can take up to 48 hours, so it’s safe to presume the righty was placed on waivers Tuesday. By some point today, we should find out if another team will claim him or if the Orioles can send him outright to the minor leagues. He has never been outrighted previously in his career and does not have the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment.

Contreras, 25, began his career as a prospect in the Yankees organization before the team traded him to the Pirates as part of the deal that sent Jameson Taillon back to New York. He pitched in parts of four seasons with Pittsburgh from 2021-24 before the Pirates traded him to the Angels this past May. Since finishing off the 2024 campaign with L.A., he has bounced between several teams on waivers, going from the Angels to the Rangers to the Reds to the Orioles. He has a career 4.72 ERA and 4.66 SIERA in 90 games (33 starts) and clearly offers enough upside for several teams to be interested in claiming him off. Perhaps that upside will convince yet another team to take a chance on him today. If not, the O’s can stash the former top prospect in Triple-A Norfolk as a depth arm.