The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.
If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.
As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.
Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.
If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.
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…to fall further behind the Dodgers?
Good thing the Diamondbacks are going ti give the Dodgers a run.
And the Giants aren’t rolling over. The NL West is cookin’ with some heat in ’25!
If the Pads get Roki, then trade Cease for a couple of young major leaguers like Kjersted and Mountcastle, thell be right there with the Dodgers once again.
Vermonster…. but why would Roki come into such a dysfunctional situation? With ownership up in the air and cost-cutting in the works, He can’t expect SD to maintain, let alone improve on the pitching lab that Roki has said is a priority for him.
San diego has pretty much all he’s looking for, and the disfunction, I guarantee was discussed with them ahead of time. This isnt new news. Also, theyre not cost cutting, considering they are up 40 million this year. They’re just trying to keep it under control.
You talked to Roki and know what he’s looking for? It sounds more like what your looking for.
Mets you’re commenting on an article that is based on 100% speculation and second hand click bait articles framed as “analysis” while asserting the financial position of a billion dollar franchise that only the board and executive team truly know…and your come back is “have you talked to Roki directly”?
@geoff Thats funny because Ohtani went to the Angels when they haven’t made the postseason in about 10 yrs. He could have went elsewhere to start his MLB career but stuck with the Angels.
Well hearing about how the Padres have everything Roki wants is just dumb and you following it up with of course it’s just speculation is just as bad. No one is looking to go to San Diego until this ownership nightmare is figured out.
You’re funny metsin4. I put you around 14, 15 max.
Why is Gwynnjng responding to me when he blocked me. Don’t talk about someone acting like they are 15 when you block someone because you get your feeling hurt.
I’ve never blocked you lol
Yes you have. You did after crying about Merrill losing the ROY to Skenes. I can’t respond to you. Now you can’t be honest about it.
You are responding to me, and I can obviously reply to you , how could I do that if you were muted? Lmao
What’s funny is you’re one of the couple 2, 3 posters that probably deserve a block!
Haha Enjoy high school next year brah!
I responded to my own post. You real creative with calling me a teenager.
K byeeeee metsy
Angels weren’t nearly that awful then. Trout was healthy, you had Pujols, Upton. Add Ohtani into that and you have a good core of players to move forward with………..on paper
Also, Ohtani and the DH position made a huge difference.. If the DH was MLB wide then, who knows what Ohtani does.
He could have said grade school?
At this point you have no clue if cost cutting is coming. In fact, you have the person with the largest single ownership stake fighting to keep there from being any cost cutting.
No nightmare. It will be resolved shortly. The Padres have a solid clubhouse and great players. And last time I checked, the game is played on the field not the owners box.
Judgement
Ohtani was limited to AL teams because he wanted to be a two way player and a DH slot was desired. The Angels were and are the only AL in Southern California and obviously prevailed over the Mariners, A’s, Yankees, etc.
Gwynning, apparently I came to this conclusion sometime ago because I wasn’t seeing him.
metsin4
No one is looking to go to San Diego until this ownership nightmare is figured out.
==========================
Why? It is still a good team. He will get the max signing bonus, win a fair amount of games, and have the market to himself.
I’d say that dysfunction is a feature, not a bug. He’ll get lot more credit for the Padres making the playoffs than he would if he joined LAD.
Since we’re on the subject of non-sequiturs (thanks A. Franco!) what can the Tigers expect for Skubal?
But what can the Braves expect for Sale?
@geofft Why would Sasaki consider SD, notwithstanding the ownership issues? Here’s an interesting piece on The Athletic: nytimes.com/athletic/6045382/2025/01/08/roki-sasak…
Why would the Orioles do that?
Cause they lost Burnes and need a TOR arm. They actually need 2 but definitely need 1.
They have a surplus of OF and can roll with cowser Mullins O Neil with some guys in the minors very close
The package you suggested is worth more than just 1 year of Cease. Remember that the O’s themselves are trying to contend and losing Mountcastle hurts them there.
Kjerstad and Mountcastle?
Not really
That’s akin to the Joey Ortiz and DL Hall package the Orioles sent the Brewers for Burnes.
Losing Mluntcastle doesn’t hurt them. Not with O Hearn on hand to play 1B. They also signed Gary Sanchez. Moutcastle is coming off a .733 OPS season while Sanchez is coming off .699. Very little difference amongst the two as that isn’t very good OPS for a 1B/DH type. So Sanchez could see time at 1B and DH too.
Orioles could also opt to keep DH spot open to give big bats a day off rotate guys.
TIL that losing a 3-WAR guy doesn’t hurt a team.
And Burnes was a more attractive asset a year ago than Cease was today. Especially with that godawful postseason Cease is coming off.
3 WAR OH GOD WHY DIDNT YOU SAY SO.
Dude. It’s 1B. Easiest position infield and outfield to fill. Just put a big bat out there and call it a day.
3 WAR is 3 WAR. Doesn’t matter how he got it.
The fact he doesn’t have more cause of his .733 is concerning
Then why would SD want him bad enough to trade their best starter which they currently only have 3 of those and need 6?
If the Padres get Roki, why would they trade Cease. They will have to go with a 6-man rotation with Roki and that means they would need Cease more.
If the Padres get Roki, they will need 6 starters including Roki, so 5 in addition to Roki. If they don’t get Roki, they will need 5 starters. Sounds like signing or not signing Roki has no bearing on trading Cease by your logic.
I don’t think they should trade Cease either way. Team only has 3 starters as it stands and Cease worked well with Ruben Niebla. I wonder how much his postseason is driving Padres fans’ desire to trade him?
I actually don’t think they will need to go to a 6 man rotation.
Yes I’m aware Roki pitches once a week and throws around 100 innings.
Now go look at Lugo and king both guys who either had a few starts or pitched out of the pen. Most they pitched was around 100 innings. I think the padres can do what they did with them the last two years to build up Roki.
A lot of that will likely come down to what Roki wants for now.
Pitching at a pitcher’s park in perfect weather probably isn’t a bad selling point to a young pitcher, but maybe that’s just me
Yadda yadda, what I want to know is what can the Mariners expect for Logan Gilbert?
The Seidler Bros have done nothing so far, nothing.
All that is being battered about is reduction, reduction, reduction.
Seidler Bros are punting 2025.
I wonder what the Dodgers can expect for Mookie Betts?
I hope we don’t find out! A WC is realistic with him assuming rounding the roster out with at least average guys.
If traded, he better bring back immediate quality hole filers or why do it?
Exactly. You don’t, unless you get your sox knocked off.
Keller and Davis for Cease
Who hangs up first?
Sold! Ship um, matey!
I also like it.
Gives the Pirates an incredible rotation for a season ,
and the Padres get 2 players they can use longterm (and prob develop better than Pittsburgh)
Love Keller from the drop, Davis makes for a very interesting remodel. I still think he’s due for a breakout. Maybe the Bucs have to sweeten this a little to account for AJ’s “overpay me” status, but good stuff Goku!
Goku the Knowledgable One
Keller and Davis for Cease. Who hangs up first?
=======================
I think Pitt hangs up. Keller is still pretty decent, and they need hitting a lot more than pitching.
I agree with all of that.
My opinion is just that they should lean in on the rotation because the lineup is so dire (no one-fix solution)
Also, pirates will absolutely be looking to dump kellers contract at some point.
I’d rather take a season of Cease and Skenes (while Bob can still save 2mil in the trade) than dumping Keller for prospects next offseason etc
I agree completely. Ideally you keep him at his bargain rate, he has a big platform year, team makes the playoffs, and then offers him a QO as he walks. The cherry on top will be when the QO prospect turns out to be better then any of the pieces traded to get him which is easy to envision at this point.
In the meantime, no credible SS, LF, Catcher and two starting pitchers. And apparently no budget to fix that without subtractions first.
Bogie and Cronie are both legit SSs. Trust in Preller, Dan. Dude knows how to make a roster.
Watched way too many balls go through XB’s legs. His arm is less than mediocre. Minimal range. Cronenworth hasn’t played SS since his days on the minors. If he was better than XB, he would be playing SS now.
You mean he knew in the past how to buy a roster….no more….let’s see what the Rock Star GM does when the money cubbbard is bare.
XB was pretty much cooked defensively when the Sox traded him…..all he offered was offense…..and that’s on the down side….
The Red Sox never trade Bogaerts!
It’s was more bare last year and he did pretty well.
Padres 2025 moves:
Trade Dylan Cease to Mets for:
SS Jett Williams
2B/SS/OF Ronny Mauricio
RHP Jonah Tong
Trade Luis Arraez to Yankees for:
RHP Clarke Schmidt
Trade Xander Bogaerts and $72M over 9 years to Red Sox for:
1B Tristan Casas
Trade Jake Cronenworth to Guardians for:
C David Fry
Sign RHP Roki Sasaki
Sign LRP Tanner Scott 4yrs/$54M
Sign LF Jurickson Profar 3yrs/$36M
Sign LHP Jose Quintana 1yr/$13M
Sign INF Donovan Solano 1yr/5M
2025 starting lineup:
Jett Williams
Fernando Tatis
Jurickson Profar
Manny Machado
Jackson Merrill
David Fry
Tristan Casas
Luis Campusano
Eguy Rosario/Ronny Mauricio
$2025 starting rotation:
Michael King
Yu Darvish
Roki Sasaki
Jose Quintana
Clarke Schmidt
lol
Then you have not watched any games. Bogaerts in the last 3 seasons ranks 9th fewest FE out of 25 SS with 2000 innings or more. His range is 13th in MLB at SS. A +7 OAA.
Cronenworth has played 61 games at SS in the majors.
You know you CAN look this stuff up. There are sites that have all this information and they are free.
Yeah, none of that is happening.
Mets are not moving Jett for 1 year of Cease! If they were planning on moving him they would have went after Crochet. Also no way in hell would the Indians want Cronenworth let alone pay him for the next 6 years, they could of kept Gimenez for only 25MM more over 5 years who’s a much better hitter and fielder at this point.
Gwynning, so is Merrill. So is Tatis. DeVries may be here by 2027.
Rey, Jett is probably not good enough of a prospect to headline the deal. Especially after getting hurt and hitting .215 last season. Sproat probably would be. Sproat, Megill, Mauricio, and Parada for Cease and Rodriguez. Mets get an Ace and a triple digit throwing reliever that is expected to break camp with the team. If not to Rodriguez, then Sean Reynolds.
Remember, the Padres asked for Mayer from the Red Sox, plus Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez.
What can the Dbacks expect for Burnes?
Which reminds me, what can the Cubs get for Shota Imanaga?
How is a top 50 prospect not good enough to headline a 1 year deal of a pitcher ? Even with the injury he still came back and did well with AAA. I wouldn’t want the Mets to trade him for just 1 year of anything cause that hardly ever works out for a team.
Rey, the Mets went after Crochet. They just didn’t want to pay enough to get him.
The Red Sox gave up two prospects that are better than Jett plus 2 others that are MLB ready to get Crochet.
Cronenworth is a 2+ WAR player. He will make $11.83 million AAV. Gimenez is $19.3 million AAV.
Crone – 99 OPS+
Gimenez – 82 OPS+
That is a LARGE difference at the plate. 17%.
Gimenez is undoubtedly a better defensive player. Cronenworth is undoubtedly the better offensive player.
There’s literally no reports Mets went seriously after Crochet.
Cronenworth has been worth 2.9fWAR the last 2 seasons while Gimenez has been 9.3fWAR player in that span. Also Cronenworth is had from his age 31-36 seasons while Gimenez is just entering his prime at 26, and retained thru till his 30 or 31 season.
For an extra 5MM per season I would much rather have Gimenez and his GG and 101 OPS+ thru his prime then Cronenworth on the decline with his career OPS+ 107. That’s really not much difference.
That was suppose to be *bWAR* but even Fangraphs has Gimenez at 6.4WAR last 2 seasons vs Cronenworth 2.9fWAR.
I’ll sum it up as…
A lot.
Equally random, what can the Astros expect for Framber?
A very, very decent haul… or they won’t do it. Similar sitch!
*submit best offers here*
If we get Roki, send him to B-more for Kjersted and Mountcastle or Bradfield.
If Roki signs here, keep Cease and sign Mad Max. I’ve said it since these silly rumors started! A Baltimore trade could happen, but they prospecthug with the best of ’em…(looking at you, Cashman) and they would *need to* overpay.
I don’t think they are silly, given the fact that they missed out on burns, and others in their division have made significant moves.
But I wouldn’t mind your suggestion either, that’d be a heck of a 5 man rotation.
You are having trouble reading. They do not have room in their budget to keep Cease and Arraez. They are not going to sign Scherzer who will cost at least $15M.
Man…your dreaming buddy……
@FanDan If they don’t have room in their budget to keep them why did they trade for them?
Arraez came for almost nothing last year. Miami picked up his salary except league minimum. Last years payroll was less than this year. Cease and King are getting nice bumps via arbitration Darvish, Cronenworth, Tatis and Machado are getting pay raises. They stepped into it by signing Wandy Peralta. AJ was probably hoping he would opt out. The bottom line is that significant payroll increase this year over last year.
I meant the Cease rumors in general. I would only truly entertain moving Cease if we miss on Roki, but that’s just me, Verm.
@FanDan All of those pay raises you just mentioned we knew would happen a year ago. It wasn’t a secret. So that’s not an excuse. And if you are hoping a player opts out it’s 100% he’s not opting out.
AJ shot for the moon in 24. He knew a reckoning was coming, but figured the long term contracts he handed out in addition to his own contract expiring and no coverage from Seidler, 2024 was the best shot he was going to have. So he pulled the trigger. Emptied out most of his farm system and came up short. So here we are. It is what it is. Try to be competitive.
So you are saying that A. J. traded for Cease and Arraez with full intentions of trading them a year later for 40% of what he gave up to get them? If that’s the case he needs to be fired.
That is what we did. I have been saying he should have been fired a long time ago. But I think his contract is up in 26, so fire him after 25 and only have to payout 1 year.
Are you sure you’re not a Dodger fan in disguise, Danny?!? Jk jk I kid i kid
Bite your tongue. No I just think the rockstar was an overhype. Too many bad moves more than offset the good ones. Peter is gone and so is his protection.
To each their own. I endorse your opinion even if we’re on nearly completely opposite sides of the AJ spectrum. He’s done a brilliant job with 40 Man construction and scouting, but you do you bro!
10 plus years and no WS appearances. Near empty farm system (28 out of 30 teams). Long enough for a GM. Time to try another way.
I want a ring too, Dan. I think AJ offers the best chance. He’s hungry for cake as well. Theoretically, of available GM types, and in your opinion o/c, who could do better?
I don’t doubt his passion. Just his decision making and long term planning. I am not a baseball HR pro. I don’t know who is out there. But I do know that 10 years without getting near a title and all of the roster flexibility killing contracts he has given out that will not age well are not a rally cry for being retained.
The point of trading for a guy is to either use him or to flip him later on for MORE than you gave up to get him. Cease and Arraez’s trade values were both very much at their apex when they were traded for so that second option is out.
You mean like the Soto deal?
They stepped in it also with reuping Machado for no real reason.
Manny indicated he was using his opt out.
Yes. But XB was supposed to be insurance if he left. Remember Machado crying out that XB got his money. But Seidler was not going to let Manny leave. So if XB was insurance but you were not going to let Machado leave, why sign XB to that extravagant contact? And once you had XB, why double down on Machado. So now they will paying two guys way past their primes about $65M in total in a couple of years.
@FanDan They traded Soto for significantly less than they gave up to get him. Nice try tho!
@Gwynning Should have called his bluff
I support your comment. Yes the Padres came out in the long term on the short end of the trade with the Nats.
NonFanDan, You are having trouble with reality. No one has said that the Padres cannot keep all of their arbitration eligible players. The only people that matter, Kutsenda, Greupner, and Preller have said that they are keeping them. That they are planning to have a payroll somewhere between 2023 and 2024.
Fandan, you live in a fact free zone I take it. The Padres cut payroll from $291 million in 2023 to $227 million in 2024. The Control person, the CEO, and the POBO have all said the plan is to have a payroll somewhere between 2023 and 2024. More than that, they said that level is sustainable.
Don’t you even TRY to check the facts? Or do you just enjoy getting things wrong all the time?
Lets see… 92% of MLB POBO’s have not been to the WS in the past 10 years. Guess they should all be fired.
I would take a pass on Max, but that is just because I don’t think he fits the vibe they had last season.
Bogaerts was not insurance in case Machado left because Manny played 3B. Bogaerts was supposed to be what he had been the past few years before signing with the Padres, a consistent 5 WAR SS.
Bogaerts contract was a great one in AAV, just not in length.
He’s a bulldog who wants to win, seemingly at all cost. Sign me up for Max!
The 10 plus years argument is a farce. Everyone knows half of those 10 years was a full year down and rebuild. Since we signed manny we e been in the hunt regularly.
Sticking with the theme, what can the Giants expect for Logan Webb?
What I really want to know, Anthony Franco, is what can the Dodgers expect for Freddie?
Re: Logan Webb
A veritable haul, Brew! He ain’t going nowheres, imho.
I found this comment interesting. Did a little research. Preller was hired in August 2014. The only GM/POBO’s still around prior to that date are Hoyer and Mozeliak. And we know that they have WS rings from their time with their respective teams. Dipoto and Antonetti are close, a year behind Preller. I am not sure about Cleveland fans, but from what I have read Seattle fans would like to see Dipoto shown the door. Where did your 92% figure come from?
Oh and yes, Cleveland went to the WS in 2016.
Not a ring, just an appearance would be nice
Nobody is an idiot here… well, beyond metsin4 haha… but the Pads did lose to the Phils in the ’22 NLCS and were one game short of the NLCS this year before the eventual Champs came back. Making a WS doesn’t quantify a success story, to me at least. Yes we’d like to be there, but missing out by a couple W’s isn’t the GM’s fault.
I guess we will see how the season goes. But I don’t subscribe to the San Diego mindset that after decades of mediocrity, that a couple of years of being intermittently competitive is the sign of true succcess. Ownership with all the money they have been throwing at this team I would think would be starving for more. After this season, a change in direction should be warranted to raise the bar of success from just being happy we were competitive.
We all want a ring and piece of cake, and I’m sold on AJ being the singular “best chance” guy. Time will tell, cheers Dan-O.
How much time are you willing to wait? Just curious.
Well, I’d have to say I can’t put time down as an indicator. Replacing a FO is more of a feel, like, you’ll know when it’s time because it feels like it. Sounds contrarian, I know… but like the gut feeling a coach might get as to when to pull a starter. There’s a definite *feel* to the matter, and it just feels right to roll with AJ “for now”!
I will tell you when GMs are not replaced.
When their team has been to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years.
When they have built a team good enough that as currently constituted, they still have a team that would have ranked 9th in wRC+ and 10th in runs scored last season with no LF, no backup catcher, and missing 2 key pieces of their bench. The Padres will have a LF and a backup catcher opening day and they will fill the bench. Without Musgrove and Perez, the starting pitchers they have today would have ranked 6th in WAR last season.
Think about where the Padres were at this time last season and who they added before opening day. No Profar. No Cease. During the season added Arraez, Perez, Solano, Peralta, Scott, Adam, and Hoeing.
When 3 years in a row they have had record attendance with complete sell outs of seasons tickets with thousands paying to be on a waiting list. (2025 season tickets sold out a few days ago)
When you have grown revenue so fast that the team went from bottom 3 in revenue to top 14 since 2019.
Preller’s job is as secure as any GM/POBO in MLB.
@Vermonster But then we still only have 3 starting pitchers.
Get used to Valdez, Waldron and Brito.
Correction Vasquez.
I can read just fine, Dan. I’ve gotten much better at not believing everything I read nowadays.
I guess that explains why they haven’t done anything to address their noticeable roster gaps. Plenty of $ to spend just can’t figure out who to heap it onto. Or even better SD is just no place to raise your kids.
“Or even better SD is just no place to raise your kids.”
What?!?!? Lol
There’s 4 roster spots to roundout. If Roki is one, then you’ll see the other 3 sufficiently resolved.
“ Or even better SD is just no place to raise your kids.”
Well when you’re making 20 bucks an hour flipping burgers screwing up basic orders like you do FanDan SD certainly isn’t a place to raise kids. You can’t afford to live here let alone afford kids.
When you’re making 6 figure salaries like me and others. It’s a great place to raise my kids.
Sounds like FanDan made some poor choices in life and is jealous they can’t afford to live in SD. I hear Bakersfield is nice and cheap FanDan.
Dude. I was being sarcastic as to why the Padres haven’t signed or acquired anyone. People think it is all going to change magically. They haven’t been paying attention. There is a budget they are working to and they are over budget.
If SD traded with the Orioles, they would ask for Catcher/1B Samuel Basallo, RHSP Chayce McDermott and more
That’s more like it, SportsFan. I agree.
Dream on. O’s are not giving up that for a rental.
Then they’re not getting their ace from SD. Pretty simple.
O’s are probably still sore from giving up two of their better prospects/post-prospects for 1 year of Corbin Burnes only to get swept in the WC.
Which is why they are talking to Flaherty.
All he cost is money, and commitment.
5yr/$125MM+?? Jack is not even 30 but he’s got a back with a history…
Or you can re-rent an ace with an affordable Arb 3 #. There’s the quandary. I suspect they are gunshy on another rental plan. Who knows!
Or they could just pay $15M for one year of Scherzer and give up nothing until the deadline if they decide they need to add then. Several starters will be available then.
Players decide where to sign, just a friendly reminder. That being said, I would suspect BAL would be on Max’s shortlist, so very conceivable situation. And yes, the TDL looms as usual, and most teams would like to get there first before committing to enhancement… or seppuku. Cheers Dan
You have it all wrong. If the Padres get Sasaki then they will be going to a 6 man rotation and still need Cease. Besides which, they will then have a rotation to put up against any rotation in baseball.
No. The only way Cease is moved is if they don’t get Sasaki and some team gives up a huge package of players.
Padres would do well to keep Dylan cease and compete in 2025. Arraez is more expendable even if they get very little in return. If they trade Arraez, they could probably pick up one of Anthony Rizzo, Ty France or Donnie Barrels at one year/$2 million.
A player with a .370 OBP over the last 3 seasons is never expendable..
There is literally no reason the Padres would want any of those players.
In 2024, Cease had a 4.2 WAR, so my point is that he is much more valuable than Arraez who had a 1.0 WAR, which is what Donovan Solano (aka Donnie Barrels) had in 2024, a 1.0 WAR. Rizzo had a down year being injured. I do not know that the Padres actually want to get below the luxury tax threshold, but my point is if they do, they should keep Cease rather than Arraez. In fact, Solano had an OPS+ of 112 to Arraez of 106, and Solano an OPS of 0.760 to Arraez 0.739. Even 2024 OBP was 0.343 forSolano and 0.346 for Arraez and Solano had double the home runs in half the at-bats.
Cronenworth and Bogaerts are not movable without eating too much money better to take advantage of having them.
Arraez’s WAR was a function of what positions he played with the Padres. Look at his WAR the previous 2 seasons.
Since the theme of the article is the subject of arbitrary trade rumors with no basis in reality, what can the Mets expect for Lindor?
Web
But Arraez’ value will stay lower as he would be expected to be deployed as a 1B or DH if retained in 2025.
Not saying Padres will want to stay under luxury tax, just saying if they do, Dylan Cease is much more valuable than having Arraez as a 1B or DH.
Brew
RE: Imaginary trade rumors
Lindor is 31 years old and getting $34 million per year for the next seven years. He has 18.5 WAR over the past three years.
Maybe Logan Gilbert? He has only 9.0 WAR over the past three years but makes only ten percent as much in salary.
80% of the quality Milw got for Burnes rental?
Pads fans know better if that’s worth it relative to a comp pick.
Seems like they should go for WCard with him or trade him at deadline if the club is struggling.
Gotta think they can dump 10mil of Arraez salary-just don’t hold out for a prospect as far as shedding some payroll.
No point in trading for Arraez at all (or Cease for that matter) if they’re just going to trade them not even 365 days later.
Relating to the article’s whimsical theme, what can the Phillies expect for Zack Wheeler?
How about Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, Drew Thorpe and Steven Wilson!?
Career ERA much closer to 4.00 than 3.00, a career WHIP 1.25…
Sure, he strikes out a lot of batters, but that is about all that you can say is in the SP Two range.
Cease has also been putrid with nearly a 13.00 playoff ERA.
A good mid-rotation starter, but he certainly should not command that much with only one year left on his contract at a bit below market value.
Dylan Cease over past 3 seasons
SO – #1 total and K/9
WAR – #5
ERA – #10
FIP – #7
IP – #10
He is the definition of an Ace.
Your jealousy is showing. But you do you Boo.
Do you remember how Cease pitched in the postseason?? From what I recall, it wasn’t that great. How one pitches in the postseason matters, and is what separates the boys from the men.
S.S.S.T.
Do you remember how Kershaw did in his 2 starts in 2009? How about 2014? How about 2018 WS and 2019 playoffs?
Do you remember how Tarik Skubal did in his 2 starts on 6/14 and 6/19 this season?
How about Chris Sale in his 1st two starts of June? Or Wheeler on June 6th and July 29th?
How a starting pitcher performs in one or two starts in the playoffs has no bearing on a player’s worth over a season. It is too small of a sample size.
But what I want to know is, what can the Red Sox expect for Devers?
Dylan cease to the orioles would give back basallo (solution at first base) and bradfield and mountcastle
Or Jordan westburg???
Bradfield is a maybe. But forget the rest you have here. They would not want to take on Mountcastles salary anyway. Defeats the purpose.
Basallo won’t be traded. Period. Bradfield will replace Mullins. Mountcastle, McDermott, Beavers and Fabian are all possibles. McDermott is no sure thing, but SD could view him as a younger Cease. If SD wants budget relief, a package of McDermott, Beavers and another prospect is something SD might accept.
Mountcastle will make around $6M. SD doesn’t want to pay that. Defeats the purpose of what they are trying to do. It will be prospects or pre-arb players.
Think Orioles would be better off keeping those dudes and signing Sasaki, Bauer or Scherzer.
Perfect world the Padres could get something like Kjersted & Rogers depth from Baltimore but would work in SD but odds are that won’t happen
Pads can still contend if they can unload Arraez and Suarez which would allow some cash to fill out roster. (Around 24 mill).. Would probably have to take very little in return unless they pay down some of Arraez.
If they trade Cease as well you are not looking at a viable path to a wildcard.
Bingo
Padres can’t contend if they give up those two.
Here is reality. The Padres are still a top 10 offensive team and have as good of a 1-3 in the rotation as anyone and a great bullpen.
They have two guys coming that will fill in nicely in LF Ornelas and IF Rosario. If you don’t know their names, you should look.
They need a catcher, a #4-#5 starter, and possibly a LF. That is it.
They have no need to trade Cease or Arraez or Suarez.
This is oddly familiar to this time last year when Jakob Marsee was your next great Pads OF.
The Pads will potentially not have payroll space available to them to plug all those holes. That’s why they’d look to move on from Arraez’s $16MM salary. But you know that.
Pads, it is Ryan. You have gotten really good at picking out his new names. Great job.
The old swap the username for backup!
You are worse than Ryan with that. I’m an O’s fan though. Maybe you and your 3-4 accounts can do your due diligence and figure it out!
Wonder what the Reds can expect for de la Cruz?
I don’t love the Burnes comp. Burnes had four straight top level years at the time of the trade. His last three years then were top 5 caliber. Cease had a monster 2022, terrible 2023, and very good 2024. He’s not consistent, and for a one year rental, that introduces more risk than came with Burnes. Even Cease’s performance last year was up and down month to month more than you’ll see with a traditional ace. Plus, he got rocked in the postseason afterward. He’ll bring back a lot, but Burnes has been a better pitcher by all measures.
Dylan Cease over past 3 seasons
SO – #1 total and K/9
WAR – #5
ERA – #10
FIP – #7
IP – #10
He is the definition of an Ace.
But on a similar note, what can the Yankees expect for Gerrit Cole?
Your numbers are off. Last three years for qualified SP, Cease is 26th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 4th in K/9, 43rd in WHIP, 31st in xFIP, 5th in WAR. He’s durable and strikes guys out for sure, but isn’t the ace you’re making him out to be. He does have that upside when completely right. But he also has had a year where he was barely startable, and was very uneven month to month last year. He’s not equivalent to what Burnes was the previous three seasons before his trade. He was 7th in ERA, 4th in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 4th in WHIP, 10th in K/9, 2nd in WAR.
The numbers I posted are for SP that have 450 IP or more over 3 seasons.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
I don’t include SP as “qualified” if they have less IP than that because it means that in multiple seasons out of those 3 they would not have qualified for things like the ERA title.
If you think a qualified starter is a guy that throws 25 starts and 120-125 IP per season, more power to you. I don’t.
I use the actual definition of qualifies IP as everyone does. Its not a preference, its the way its categorized. My numbers are where he really ranks vs where burnes ranked w same criteria. He’s a low end ace, i know that, but he doesnt have same value now that burnes had same time last year.
Ma, what Fangraphs counts as qualified for multiple seasons is not what it would take to be considered qualified in a single season multiplied by three.
To be counted as qualified (Rate Stats Qualifier) for one season a SP would have to have 162 IP. That is 486 IP over 3 seasons. Pads Fans was a little low in his sort, but Fangraphs doesn’t have an option for 486 IP.
Your numbers do not account for what qualified actually is every season of the last 3, so they do not represent where actually qualified starters rank over the past 3 seasons.
Even Pads Fans numbers add 5 pitchers that would not have qualified in at least 1 season out of the last 3. Your count includes 86 that would not have qualified in at least one season and 41 that would not have been qualified in 2 of the 3 seasons.
Hope that helps clear things up.
The actual definition of qualified for a SP is 162 IP per season. 1 IP for each game the team plays. Over 3 seasons that would be 486 IP. So your numbers are no where close to where he really ranks among qualified starting pitchers.
On the list of 106 “qualified” SP you are utilizing there are only 24 that would actually be qualified over 3 seasons. Here is your list. fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
That is why I used 450 IP. I wanted at least most of the SP on the list to have qualified all 3 seasons. Cease is near the top of the list for all of the categories I listed. At a minimum top 10.
Burnes over the 2021-2023 seasons
SO – #2 total and #5 K/9
WAR – #3
ERA – #2
FIP – #3
IP – #4
Burnes was also the definition of an Ace over that period.
Cease is a top 5-10 SP in MLB over the last 3 seasons.
Burnes was a top 3-5 SP in MLB over 2021-2023.
Value is based on two things. What the selling party wants and what the buying party is willing to give. We know that the Padres wanted Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez for Cease. To get him, your team is going to have to come up with something similar or he will stay a Padre.
The Brewers received a MLB ready #63 overall/55FV prospect, a former #90 overall prospect who had a 3.26 ERA in his first 18 games in the majors, and a #34 overall draft pick.
The Padres asked for a top 10 overall/60 FV prospect who is a year away from being MLB ready, a glove first platoon RF, a back of the rotation/swingman MLB SP, and a MLB ready SP prospect outside the team’s top 10.
Should have scrolled down. You had answered that pretty well already Web.
Nobody knows what the padres are going to do payroll wise. They seem to only be willing to trade cease or Arraez if someone overpays.
I think the Padres are waiting on Roki to decide. I’m sure Preller has a plan either way.
Lots of padres fans panicking over the lack of spending. Go look at what they did last year from this point on in the offseason.
The ownership drama may even lead to the team doing more to not lose fan support.
Time will tell, I have full confidence they will be a serious contender again next year.
Bingo!
The Bingo of optimism. Good for mental health.
Since we’re on the subject of capricious trades, I wonder what the Phillies can expect for Harper?
Or the Red Sox for Devers. I heard that discussed on MLB, which I’ve been curious about since they have a surplus of young quality LH bats and Devers may profile long term as a DH.
Team is the 2010s Giants without the rings. Can only compete in even-numbered years.
Padres have no chance this year sell the team
Could’ve resigned Perez for a basket of warm biscuits
Or 2 fish tacos. Damn…
Padres 2025 moves:
Trade Dylan Cease to Mets for:
SS Jett Williams
2B/SS/OF Ronny Mauricio
RHP Jonah Tong
Trade Luis Arraez to Yankees for:
RHP Clarke Schmidt
Trade Xander Bogaerts and $72M over 9 years to Red Sox for:
1B Tristan Casas
Trade Jake Cronenworth to Guardians for:
C David Fry
Sign RHP Roki Sasaki
Sign LRP Tanner Scott 4yrs/$54M
Sign LF Jurickson Profar 3yrs/$36M
Sign LHP Jose Quintana 1yr/$13M
Sign INF Donovan Solano 1yr/5M
2025 starting lineup:
Jett Williams
Fernando Tatis
Jurickson Profar
Manny Machado
Jackson Merrill
David Fry
Tristan Casas
Luis Campusano
Eguy Rosario/Ronny Mauricio
$2025 starting rotation:
Michael King
Yu Darvish
Roki Sasaki
Jose Quintana
Clarke Schmidt
Lay off the booze
Living on a pink cloud
It’s all pink on the inside
Replace Jett with Gilbert and Tong with McLean, and I think it’s more realistic. Gilbert (#74 MLB top 100), Mauricio (#73 BA top 100), McLean (top 10 Met prospect).
I think Padres could make McLean into a number 2-3 SP with the huge spin he gets on his slider and success they’ve had with others. Mauricio big upside, very toolsy. Gilbert is going to be a solid OF, and then you wouldn’t need Profar who had one good year so can’t really count on him.
If the Pads trade Cease to anyone, they will want major league ready players in return. Gilbert isn’t that. I agree that the Mets will be hesitant to include Tong, and agree on McLeans upside. I’d swap those two, but Jett will be the mainstay in any Cease trade to NYM, imho.
I just dont see a top 50 and a top 100 in a deal for cease. 1-2 good months and jett is back to top 30 status. I dont think jett is any more MLB ready than gilbert is though.
Plus, couldnt SD use the LH bat more?
Just look at the strikeout numbers. Jett is way more MLB ready than Gilbert, and will be a nice replacement for Arraez leading off. Plus he fills a key area of need at SS. Jett is also a lefty. And I think you may be overvaluing him a bit. A singles hitter with little to no pop, and good hands but not great range or arm at SS (his future is more than likely at 2B)…he will make or break his stay at the mlb level with his speed and obp. It’s a good fit for the Padres. And where exactly does he fit on the Mets? The Mets need an Ace now, to make their run in 2025. They have plenty of money to sign Cease moving forward.
Jett is a RH bat. He has power potential for sure. His 13 HR in 2023 shows that upside. Theres a reason he was a top 30 prospect before his injury riddled year last year. He has altuve upside and i dont see the mets letting him go.
Jett is not enough as a headliner. Padres asked for Mayer as headliner from Red Sox.
Padres don’t have a need at SS. They have a need at C, LF, and SP.
Maybe, they really want to move Xander to second.
They play Jett in CF now as they see that as his future since lindor is there. They also tried him at 2b. He has the athleticism for both. He’s more than enough as a headliner. Asking for mayer doesnt mean they were close to getting him or that it was a realistic ask.
I dont think they trade cease now anyway bc theyll ask for too much, so why trade him if they dont need to. Arraez i think definitely gets moved.
When the Red Sox came calling, the Padres asked for Mayer, Abreu, Fitts, and Gonzalez. Gonzalez was subsequently part of trade for Crochet.
So Preller wants
a top 10 overall type prospect,
a platoon OF,
a 5th starter,
and a MLB ready SP prospect.
Start your discussions there.
You have to remember it’s only for one season. Cease will get less in trade than what Burnes got.
That is what the Padres want for Cease. If another team wants him, they will give up a package similar to that.
The Orioles gave up two top 100 prospects and a back of the 1st round draft pick (#34) for one season of Burnes.
Padres were asking for 1 top 10 overall prospect, a LF that is a platoon player because he can’t hit LHP, a 5th-6th starting pitcher type, and a MLB ready SP prospect that was outside the Red Sox top 10 prospects. So that is about the same as what the Orioles gave up for Burnes.
Then they aren’t trading. Cease is real good, if not inconsistent. As a RS fan, the idea of trading someone like Mayer, for one season of Cease, is not even worth the cost of the phone call.
IRT the Burnes comp, that’s not even close. Neither Ortiz nor Hall were ranked by either BA or BP, though they were still pretty close to top-100.
Ortiz was ranked #63 by MLB. Hall was not because he had made 18 appearances and has been on the major league roster a third of the year with the Orioles in 2023. He had been ranked in top 100 for several years prior to putting up a 3.26 ERA in the majors that year. Its a solid comp.
You have to remember that this years market is different from last years market and Cease is making less than burnes was I believe.
Doesn’t matter. That ask is in a different stratosphere.
You have to understand the prospects the O’s traded too. Ortiz was a bottom top 100 prospect with a very high floor and not spectacularly high ceiling. What he did last year will probably be close to what you get from him as a major leaguer. Strong D and average offense.
Hall has great stuff but can’t harness it nor stay healthy or pitch deep enough to start games. I believe he’ll be a fantastic reliever when a team decides to leave him there.
Those 2 are not close to a top 10 overall prospect with the additional ask from the pads. That’s an insane package and simply won’t be met.
Abreu and Mayer for Cease is already heavier than what the O’s gave up. The package for Cease for one year won’t be heavier than what Crochet fetched for 2. Control is valuable.
Sticking with the non-sequitur theme of the article, what can the Braves expect for Chris Sale?
It’s really funny when people like rag think front offices use mlb.com player ranking in their valuations.
what can the Braves expect for Chris Sale?
========================
Just out of curiosity, how many times are you going to do this, and why?
I’m done Joe. Hopefully the Cease trade rumor articles, this being the 4th in a month at MLBTR will cease, at least until he’s actually traded, which isn’t too likely (despite the rumors)
El Niño
It’s really funny when people like rag think front offices use mlb.com player ranking in their valuations.
==========================
1-I think it is understood that none of are real GMs, so we use the tools at our disposal.
2-I agree that rankings are not the end-all of everything, but they give you a ballpark estimate of a prospect’s value. If my guy is #10, and yours is #99, my guy is pretty much better.
this being the 4th in a month
=================
Casas has 4 per week. Such is life for small market teams like us.
I think that what Preller asked for Cease from the Red Sox was too much. I also think the what the Brewers asked for Burnes before settling for a former top 100 prospect that graduated to be a MLB pitcher, a top 100 prospect, and a 1st round draft pick was too much.
You can’t try to judge the value of the prospects in a trade after the fact. At the time of the trade Ortiz was a 55 FV prospect. A rating that ranged from top 20 to top 60 prospects. Hall had been in the top 4 of LHP prospects before getting called up. That is all you can judge it on at that time.
As a Red Sox fan I would hate to see Abreu go, but he is a glove first platoon player. He hit .180 against LHP and has not hit much better against LHP in the minors. Fitts won’t start for the Red Sox and any prospect outside the top 10 for us is expendable.
The Red Sox are stacked with prospects. Losing Mayer would hurt, but if that is the price of getting a ring, so be it.
Sure it’s a fun way for people like you and rag to play fake GM, but in no way should those lists be treated as anything other than marketing content.
I gave you actual facts about the player and didn’t mention Hall’s ranking at all.
The difference between Ortiz’s floor and ceiling is small. He was a low variance prospect with an expected low end regular floor. Mayer is a potential all star with a lower floor. But is and was a better prospect than Ortiz.
DL Hall had dropped off/slid back on a lot of “lists” prior to losing his prospect status. He’s never thrown anywhere near a starters workload and his command has not been there in that role.
Abreu is a proven 3 WAR major leaguer and Mayer is a better prospect than Ortiz ever was.
The FV of the prospects is more relevant than rankings on a list.
Joey Ortiz was a 55 FV at the end of the 2023 season. He was ranked 63rd. Matt Shaw of the Cubs is a 55 FV and is ranked 22nd right now.
Mayer, who was mentioned as who the Padres wanted to headline a deal for Cease with the Red Sox, is a 60 FV.
Ryan,
Ortiz was a 55 FV prospect at the time of the trade. His ceiling was above average MLB player. He hit .321/.378/.507/.885 in his final season in AAA. That is a 154 wRC+.
Mayer is a 60 FV prospect. Slightly better. He has been injury prone not playing more than 91 games in any professional season and only 77 games last season. He did not hit as well in AA last season as Ortiz did at a higher level in 2023. I think he has better tools which is reflected in a slightly higher FV.
DL Hall was on the top 100 lists right up until he passed the number of days on the MLB roster for qualifying as a prospect. His last ranking was #95. He was a 50 FV prospect at the time he was called up.
Abreu is a .180 and 51 OPS+ hitter vs LHP that was benched against most LH starters and taken out against tough LH relievers. His WAR is the result of his exceptional defense, not his 14% above average offense that was almost exclusively against RHP. He is a platoon player. On most teams he would be the 4th OF. He would have also platooned with the Padres because Tirso Ornelas crushes RHP.
Still think it’s Ryan? I don’t care at all though. Your multiple username usage is so blatantly obvious it’s funny. Ryan isn’t that much better at it either but he does not follow up with posts agreeing with himself with anywhere near the frequency that you do.
Every single prospect at mlb.com in the top 100 is slapped with a 55FV. Fangraphs had Ortiz as a 50 FV w/ low variance because that’s actually what he is. An average hitter with above average defense.
DL Hall hasn’t pitched 100 innings in a season and he was drafted in 2017. He was a valuable prospect but the idea that he was still in the top 100 was simply false. He pitched 49 AAA innings in 2023 over 14 starts. He walked 30 batters.
I love DL Hall out of the pen. Might not find a bigger fan. He was what he was though.
Classic pads fan lie thrown in though.
Try 121 wrc+ for Ortiz.
Losing Mayer would hurt, but if that is the price of getting a ring, so be it.
==========================
IMO, the chances of getting a ring are better with 6.5 years of Mayer than one year of Cease.
I love DL Hall out of the pen. Might not find a bigger fan.
===================
I agree 100%. There was no time in the minors where Hall showed the control to be a starter, He had a 5.2 BB9 in the minors and 5.6 in AAA. That’s why he was traded. I doubt he was a top-150 candidate at that point.
Good K-rate, but there are a ton of prospects out there with 10 K/9.
Yep. Elias had basically given up on that. I was hoping we would actually trade Povich instead of Hall because I think Hall will be a really good reliever. But in no way do I see him being a SP. he’s never had the control (or been able to stay healthy to toss anywhere near a starters workload of innings)
Neither Ortiz or Hall were near Mayer at the time of the trade. That shouldn’t even be debated.
In 2025? I don’t care about 5 years from now and we have to remember prospects are not guaranteed. Look at all the #1 overall prospects that never became anything special.
Cease is special. He gives us a 1-2 punch that is as good as any team in baseball and lots of depth. He gives us a chance at a ring now and there are enough good prospects in the system beyond Mayer.
If that is what it takes I say do it.
Agree, Ortiz in 2023 doesn’t have the value of Mayer in 2024. And Burnes’ value end of 2023 is higher than Cease’s value now. They can still get a very good return, but not what they want so a deal likely won’t happen.
Which is exactly what Ryan would do. Try to spin a comment into an accusation for doing what he is actually doing. Its part of how we know for sure its you.
I want a billion dollars and a unicorn…..
Cease will go for a little more than Burnes did last year IMO. Rationale behind that is that pitchers salaries have shot up significantly this offseason. (So much so that the Pads probably can’t get a reclamation project in Free agency for under $5-MM)
I think the likely scenario at this point is that the Pads will not have their legal dispute settled before opening day. It appears that AJP won’t have the capacity to greatly expand the payroll. How much he actually will have is tough to drill down on. But I’d be willing to bet that it’s not enough to plug all the holes using the FA market.
He’s dealt a ton of prospects away already. He’s a great scout and I believe he’ll find more in the draft/IFA market again but you only have so many to dish out at one time & he sent a bunch out last season.
It would not surprise me to see the Pads using an opener/bulk reliever strategy for one of the 2 open slots in the rotation if no major leaguers are dealt off the team.
A top-50 and a top-100 would be a reasonable haul for Cease.
Padres obviously want MLB ready players and more than the Brewers got for Burnes.
I would think that with the inflation we have seen in pitcher salaries and trade costs this offseason, slightly more than the 2 Top 100 prospects and a #34 draft pick that the Brewers got for Burnes.
This. And cease is making less than burnes was.
$2M less won’t move the needle much.
The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn’t easy.
========================
Y’all need to think outside the box. SD will take a negligible loss on Cro, but doesn’t move the needle. They would take a huge loss on Bogaerts, and might be better off hoping for positive regression.
IMHO, the best trade candidate would be Machado. His performance is weakening, but still good. You could probably trade him without a huge loss. If they wait just 1-2, he might be untradeable.
Preller has said he doesn’t see Cronenworth’s contract as underwater and will not treat it as such in a trade.
Joe,
Preller has said that he does not view Cronenworth’s contract as having any negative value. He would not take a loss of any kind on a trade for him. He would just keep him instead. His 2 WAR was worth $18-20 million and he made $7 million.
Machado is not being moved at all.
This morning on WFAN they were discussing trades for NYC teams. Two involved the Padres. The one I thought that made sense was Stroman and $18 million, Schmidt, Pereira, and Vivas for Cease, Cronenworth, and a pitching prospect whose name I don’t remember.
If I was Preller, I would take that. In that scenario, Stroman is free for the Padres in 2025 and if he throws 140 innings in 2025, that means he pitched well enough to be a #5-#6 in 2026 or to be traded in the offseason. Who proposed that trade?