On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.
The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.
Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?
Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.
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In baseball economics you simply cannot “extend” everyone. Although, at the right price practically anything is doable or negotiable.
Does failing to extend the Lone Ranger “paint” them into a corner? Or does it depend on how much they believe in Jesus?
Let’s say they QO Ranger, he declines and leaves, and Luzardo gets hurt and misses all of 2026. They still enter the year with Nola, Painter, Wheeler and Sanchez. If Painter is as billed, he’s at least a #2. The others are, too. That’s stacked. You sign a Tyler Megill type and feel great. By 2026, we might have another pitcher able to handle the 4 or 5 spot.
Oh just take the gloves off painter instead of telling the rest of the league he’s there. It’s time.
This piece feels like it was sponsored by Suarez’s agent. There is zero urgency to extend Ranger. I say this as a fan of his. But he isn’t getting Fried money without a stellar 2025. Not even close.
The Phillies will offer Suarez a QO and no more. Without Ranger, they’d enter 2026 with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Painter and Luzardo. That’s excellent. Even if one gets hurt, you sign a 5 starter and roll.
I can see him accepting the QO. I’m not sure he gets more elsewhere and he really needs to prove he can stay healthy. Phillies have Abel and Seth Johnson floating around in AAA, and whatever thy decide to do with Walker. They are pretty much set for the next 2-3 years without Suarez
I thought Pivetta would with the Red Sox too, but he didn’t and he just got 4 years with the Padres. Ranger, if he’s healthy this year, will get a 3- or 4-year deal somewhere. The AAV may not be $20 million but the total will easily exceed that.
Abel and Johnson are not MLB ready…
Gotta extend Taijuan Walker first
Nothing more than 2 bucks a year
Suarez is a respectable #3 on a contender (though you’d rather he performed at his 2024 level than at his 2022-2023 level).
It’ll be interesting to see if he can retain or even improve on his incremental gains in 2024 in K, BB, HR suppression, hit suppression, WHIP,… or slide back to 2022-23 levels.
Suarez was light years better with a lighter work load in 2021 and it would be interesting to see the Phillies handle him that way in 2025. They won’t, for myriad reasons, but it’s also worth noting he’s significantly better in the first half than the second.
Taijuan Walker has similar issues—he’s a 100 inning pitcher who falls apart when he’s extended. Teams never seem to figure it out; either that or they have imperatives that keep them from innovating, but it would be interesting to see them give guys like this a three week vacation built around the All-Star break and see if they can optimize results—particularly teams with postseason aspirations who’d benefit from having key starters at their sharpest in October, with a little something left in the tank.
His 2024 numbers are heavily influenced by a phenomenal first half. After the ASG and his injury he put up extremely weak numbers.
Walker sucks, plain and simple. The only reason he hasn’t been jettisoned yet and is getting one more opportunity is because the size of the contract that they are going to have to eat.
If Walker in camp looks like he did last year, he won’t be with the team on April 1. You can’t give up a roster spot like that.
It’s been pretty clear for a while that the Phillies don’t plan to extend Suarez, so this article is more about placing him in financial context with other pitchers. I do think he’ll be a “bargain” relative to what the market pays for others of his ilk..
We’ll see how he does this season. His platform year will have a sizable influence on his market.
Its actually HILARIOUS “The Dom” is paying $42M/year to Wheeler.
In Detroit, he low-balled Scherzer @ $11M/ when Scherzer asked for $14M/….
The next year Scherzer walked.
Lesson learned.