The Tigers have clearly been focused on upgrading their infield this offseason. They signed Gleyber Torres to take over second base. It’s only a one-year deal but they are nonetheless willing to bump Colt Keith over to first and Spencer Torkelson into a part-time role or maybe even the minors. They hung around in the Alex Bregman market, indicating some desire to install him at third and block Jace Jung, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.
None of that addresses the shortstop situation, however, so the club will seemingly head into camp with a positional battle there. That’s a risky but defensive strategy, as the winter market didn’t feature many better alternatives. On the trade market, Bo Bichette was in a few rumors but never seemed to be truly available.
In free agency, Willy Adames was the only healthy everyday shortstop. He signed a seven-year, $182MM deal with the Giants. The Tigers certainly could have matched that, given their fairly clean future payroll ledger, but it never seemed likely that they would. They already have a lot of money dedicated to the position, as the one big deal still on the books is for a shortstop, and they also have some potential long-term solutions just a bit over the horizon.
Let’s take a look at the current picture, the short term and the long term, as spring training is ramping up.
The Expensive Bounceback Candidate
The struggles of Báez in Detroit are no big secret at this point. The Tigers signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. He had just finished a six-year stretch in which he hit .271/.312/.490 for a 107 wRC+ with strong defensive and baserunning grades, allowing him to produce 21.9 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.
In his first year as a Tiger, he hit .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 89, a disappointing but not disastrous performance. He fell even further in 2023, producing a .222/.267/.325 line and 63 wRC+. Another drop came last year, with Báez coming up with a dismal line of .184/.221/.294 and a 48 wRC+. His defensive metrics have also fallen in that time.
The most favorable view of Báez right now is that his recent nosedive has been health related. He only got into 80 games last year, missing time due to lumbar spine and hip inflammation. He underwent season-ending surgery in August. It didn’t come out of nowhere. Back in February of last year, Báez told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that he dealt with lower back discomfort throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
That probably sounds like a convenient excuse but it could perhaps explain why his performance has dropped so precipitously. If the surgery has addressed his issues and he can get back to full strength in 2025, that could allow him to reverse his recent trends. Even if he doesn’t fully return to All-Star form, there would be value in simply being less bad.
If the struggles continue, the Tigers could face a tough choice. Teams are generally reluctant to give up on players when there’s still so much of the deal remaining. It’s pretty rare for a guy on an eight- or nine-figure deal to be released with more than two years left on the deal. Báez still has three years left on his pact but that will gradually move closer to two as the summer rolls along. Even if he doesn’t get released, there’s a chance he gets pushed into being an expensive utility/bench player.
The Possible Short-Term Alternative
Sweeney, 25 in April, served as a passable fill-in while Báez was recovering from surgery last year. He made his major league debut by getting into 36 games down the stretch as the Tigers were engineering their amazing comeback. Sweeney slashed .218/.269/.373 for a wRC+ of 81. His defense was graded as above average, in a small sample of 294 innings.
That was far better than anything Báez has done recently, but was also significantly less than Báez at his peak. Whether Sweeney is the best option likely depends on which version of Báez is going to show up in 2025.
Sweeney’s not really considered a top prospect. Baseball America currently ranks him eighth in the system. He’s has some good numbers in the minors but there are some concerns about the strikeouts. He slashed .267/.345/.450 in Triple-A last year but was punched out in 26.7% of his plate appearances. In his brief big league time, he had a similar 26.9% strikeout rate.
The ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other players mentioned here, but Sweeney has been to the big leagues and handled himself well enough. If things go south with Báez again, the Tigers will have a fallback. But since he has options, he might be playing every day in Triple-A to start the season while Báez tries to get back on track.
The Immediate Depth
McKinstry, 30 in April, isn’t a huge bat but is a fine bench/utility guy. He has 1,207 major league plate appearances to this point in his career with a .220/.285/.357 line and 79 wRC+. But he has also stolen 40 bases, including 16 in each of the past two years. He got those 16 bags last year without getting caught. He has also lined up at all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, with pretty solid marks all over. Despite the tepid bat, FanGraphs has credited him with 3.0 wins above replacement in 323 games over the past three seasons. He’s out of options and will be on the big league bench.
Kreidler, 27, is still looking to get to that level. He has a line of .147/.212/.193 in his three-year big league career, though in just 167 plate appearances. But his shortstop defense has been considered above average, in addition to playing second base, third base and a bit of outfield. He had a rough showing offensively in the minors last year but has been better in the past. He still has an option and could be ticketed for Triple-A to start the year.
The Possible Shortstops Of The Future
On Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there are two Detroit shortstop prospects. McGonigle has the #23 spot with Rainer at #60. The brief take on the situation is that McGonigle is the better pure hitter, and closer to the majors, but there’s more of a risk that he’ll need to move off shortstop in the future.
Just 20 years old right now, McGonigle was taken 37th overall in 2023 with a competitive balance pick. Since that draft selection, he has played in 95 minor league games, stepping to the plate 421 times. A massive 15.2% of those plate appearances have resulted in a walk, compared to a strikeout rate of just 9%. There were only six home runs in there but his .310/.412/.443 combined line nonetheless translates to a 143 wRC+. He finished last year at High-A, so getting to Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2025 seem like realistic outcomes.
Rainer is only 19, having just been drafted a few months ago. The Tigers took him with the 11th overall pick in 2024 out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles. They didn’t get him into any minor league games after that draft, so he still has no college or professional experience to speak of.
Still, the expectations are high. As mentioned, BA has him 60th overall already. MLB Pipeline has him at #53, ESPN at #79 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #70. He didn’t crack the FanGraphs list but that outlet highlighted him as a player who has a strong chance of charging into the top 100 once he makes his professional debut. There are some questions about contact ability but his power and throwing arm are considered to be huge assets.
Defensively, McGonigle is considered to have the arm for shortstop but his range and motion are more questionable. Rainer is perhaps a better bet to stick at short but he also still needs to get his feet wet as a professional.
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Neither McGonigle nor Rainer have even reached Double-A yet, so there’s still some time before things get really tight. But Báez has three years left on his deal and many fans already calling for him to go. There’s no way for the Tigers to get any of that money back, so the best-case scenario would still be a Báez bounceback. If that doesn’t come to pass, the club could pivot to Sweeney in the short term and then McGonigle and Rainer in the long term. Though prospects don’t always work out as hoped, so there are no guarantees there.
How the chips fall should be impactful for the future of the Tigers. They have no serious commitments on their long-term payroll apart from Báez. Their recent six-year offer to Bregman shows they are willing to get more aggressive. If they can find an internal solution at short, there should be resources available for other parts of the roster.
The elephant in the Room is they are only half-way through Baez’ contract and this team isn’t going to simply eat it by releasing him. They have to try to get his bat going and see if at the very least they can trade him for another bad contract next winter
He got paid and quit. Plus he was never any good before that. Kinda had that Anthony Rendon feeling when they signed him. Like, going from this may not age well to catastrophic oh no by May of year one
“big whiffa’, ironically a good username to represent Baez!
@Big Baez played 144 and 136 games first 2 seasons with Tigers. His #s were decent other than Ks in 2022. That was kind of a given with him tho and his free swinging approach. Just not seeing how him and Rendon are even remotely similar.
Tigers seemed to take a bit of a step forward at end of 2021. They started adding players in 2022 and if it could go bad it did. Austin Meadows played 30 some games and that was basically end of his contributions to the Tigers. Grossman who had a decent 2021 had bottom fall out. The decline of Miggy which went into overdrive in shortened 2020 continued. Just signed ERod was on a personal leave for majority of season.
From there the Tigers rebuild went into a reboot. The lineup got even weaker, which a free swing we like Baez paid dearly for. With rarely any pressure pitchers could and did make him chase pitches everywhere. On top of that the hip injury, to what extent that hurt his game is yet to be seen. Considering he had surgery it’s safe to assume it had some degree of impact. Any hip injury is going to impact a swing and it’s gonna have an impact on first step and lateral movement in the field. That in no way benefits a SS.
I’m hoping to see some type of bounce back as far as his glove and a little pop in his bat. If most of the lineup picks up where they left off or further develops it should lead to Baez seeing more pitches over the plate that a sane person would even swing at. So hopefully a bit more pop in his bat as well. I don’t expect the free swinging to improve and the contract still likely to be a disappointment. All and all though there it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back from Baez.
As for him regaining enough trade value to see a swap of bad contracts, I used to think no chance. But now kind of feel maybe a team with a smaller ballpark and stronger lineup could use him and the return could be an equal sunk cost that could somehow benefit from Tigers and Comerica Park. In that scenario both players would be a sunk cost anyways, so swapping to better suit there strengths seems reasonable.
Lot of words for a dull team
What was the date of BoSox last game in 2024??
Could be the white Sox or rockies! Not full just penny pinching. Not everyone is lucky enough to land players from Houston js.
@tigers, he’s like rendon bc no one was offering anything close to that amount of money. Also the 100 mill+ they wasted is a greater loss to tigers than the 300 mil wasted was to angels. In his prime he was a 107+ player, slightly above league average and super streaky. So his demise was inevitable
@Big I’m still other seeing the “Rendon feeling” between the two. Yes I agree Baez’s deal was questionable from the start. With Rendon that is not the case.
In hindsight with Rendon I believe he is one of the rare players who actually just stopped caring once cashing in. I dont see that being the case with Baez. He was decent yr 1 in Detroit and wasn’t horrific in year 2. But like I stated initially there’s a few possible factors/contributing factors.
As a whole I agree the Baez contract has sucked. I just don’t think him and Rendon are comparable other than if contracts are simply being labeled as good ir bad. As far as why they re bad and when they were questionable they re both quite different.
Half of baez value was not his 107+ hitting. He had defense and baserunning +++ also. Those fell off a cliff also.
As for offers. You have zero certainty of all offers. You can only suspect what was told based on reporting. You can’t know what was not reported.
Expecting a bounce back from lower back issues and surgery. We’ll. Good luck with that.
@ 3232
I agree that this comparison doesn’t work. Baez is beloved by Tigers’ teammates, Rendon, not so much.
Only Rendon can rival Baez in the Bad Contract Department.
Kris Bryant checks in
Strasburg is owed only $70M(2025-26) $3M(2025-27) less than Baez. At least Baez will step foot on a field.
Chris Davis sends Baez his best on taking the cup of bad deals from him
The Javy Baez face plant will end up costing another 2 or 3 deserving guys a chance to sign a long term deal. No team wants to invest $140M+ dollars to get virtually nothing in return.
It did not atop them from offering a contract to Bregman. What other position player were they going to sign this offseason?
This team will need elite pitching to be competitive. The lineup is pathetic, especially after factoring in the 40-60 games that Carp misses every season. They are counting on huge leaps forward from all the young position players and that is not realistic.
Greene, Carpenter, Keith, Meadows, Torres, Vierling is hardly pathetic.
Is it elite? No. But Greene and Carpenter are legit all stars, Keith and meadows are in growth mode. Torres and Vierling are decent veterans.
There are MUCH worse lineups than this
I get it, you’re probably not very familiar with the prospects on the doorstep. I can see Jung and Kieth for example, doing as well as Arenado. Baez can literally only be better and Meadows really started taking steps forward last season and already plays GG caliber CF. Carp, Greene, Torres and Vierling are just fine in the lineup.
Trace Weenie is a funny name!
Nosedive, haha, that’s funny!
Gotta hope for the best!
No balanced approach to payroll anywhere?
$6M x 26 guys = about the Tiger budget.
Just one $20M-$30M contract really messes things up.
I suppose nose dives in a cattle pen are not funny.
Get well soon!
Javy has actually detailed how his injuries affected his ability to play the past two seasons. At age 32 he should still be able to be productive if he is healthy. He doesn’t have to be like his pre-Tigers days to help this team. Play good defense and hit some, similar to his first year with the Tigers. And if he is healthy, he stands a decent chance of that. Possible though the hip, even if healthy, took something from Javy, aging him prematurely. We’ll find out. He is getting paid so he will get his chance to show what he can do.
Exactly. Injuries affect performance. Hopefully Javy rebounds nicely and can be a productive hitter. As disappointing as he’s been so far offensively, his defense has been good. The Tigers are going to need that with the gathering 2025 infield, which has the potential to be scary. Sure hope they hit.
How much the Tigers have committed to the SS position is irrelevant unless they think Baez can turn things around.
@oscar You re right jt is absolutely irrelevant going forward. It’s a known sunk cost at this point that is what it is. Any payroll decisions his contract is not suddenly come up as a formerly unknown. Only possible issue is in the event they get into a roster crunch, at what point is the value of that spot and protecting others valuable enough to eat the rest of Baez’s contract and be done with him.
How Báez bounces back from his hip surgery last August is the key. ST should tell us a lot about his recovery and hopefully it’s positive. The plan the Tigers have in place to platoon Sweeney/Baez looks ok on paper as Sweeney deserves a chance, and we’ll find out soon enough. Any backup plan behind this is scary
Keep in mind the 21/22 free agent class for SS included Story and Correa. Story also signed for 6/$140 and he’s done as “good” as Baez. Correa’s contract is $300M but he spends half the season on the IL. Looking back while options look good back then, they obviously didn’t work as projected as there is always a risk with the long term high dollar contracts.
I think Baez is going to have a resurgence. He’s only 32, I’m believe he has been playing through injury for years, no one healthy falls apart the way he has fallen apart in the prime of his career. Imagine if whatever surgery he had fixed him and he gets back to be a 5 win player… Tigers would likely be really good, between that, Skubal and all the pitching depth, and you have to figure the young guys continue to improve. I could see Vierling hitting 25 homers and becoming the mainstay in RF, if they play Jung as the regular at 3B, I could see 20 homers out of him. I think Keith could surprise and hit 25 homers. Torres, if he finds his game, has 30 home run power. And it wouldn’t surprise me to see Meadows hit 20, Greene hit 25, and they can probably get 20 out of Carpenter as well. Even Dingler and Rogers could combine for 20 homers. This Tigers offense could wind up being one of the best in the league with a lot of unanticipated power..
Agree with you on Baez, but you seem a little overoptimistic about the power predictions….granted, they are young guys who could/should improve, but we’ve all have seen examples of guys regressing and/or failing to adjust to pitchers’ adjustments. Luckily, The Tigers have a LOT of young guys who could take a big step this year, and one who never seems to get mentioned much is Wenceel Perez….I was very impressed with his poise and intensity last year.
Perhaps, I’m not saying they’re all hitting 30-40+ homers or anything… I think they all have at least 20 homer potential. Perez was pretty decent in his opportunity last season, I’m not sure he’s a fit this year though, at least to start the season.
Assuming they roster 13 hitters:.
9 Definites: Greene, Carp, Meadows, Keith, Torres, Baez, Rogers, Dingler, Vierling
2 Probables: Jung, Ibanez
2 of these: McKinstry, Malloy, Sweeney, Tork, and Perez.
I think Tork starts the season in Toledo, Sweeney too. McKinstry is making the team. So, it’s down to Perez and Malloy, and I think they go with Malloy and Perez goes to Toledo.
I’d say the chances of them cutting Baez between now and Opening Day are extremely slim. I think they’re going to give him every chance to prove he’s not as awful as he has been the last two seasons.
Sweeney will make the team. They won’t put Baez out there everyday with him just coming back from hip stuff.
You can’t cut McK after the .400+ ba in the playoffs…..
Well, harrisstan, if this turns out to be true, we’ll all believe you have a friend who knows Skubal.
Seems impossible.
Tigers have him for 10mm this year, through arb raise prob 16 next year.
3-4 years after that would need to be 50 mm plus per year in order to take the total deal to highest AAV for a SP
It’s unpossible.
If they did it, they’d buy the arb years out and give him way more than the arb projections. So, it wouldn’t have to be 50 million after that, as you say. Be nice if he did, but he ain’t signing no extension this year at least.
Shortstop may be a problem, but they can always fall back to the platoon system. The cost of experienced players is becoming too outrageous for any team.
The main problem for the team is they have a lot of platoon positions, and more guys that are waiting to come up. Hopefully the rosters expand to 28 sooner rather than later in the majors.
The team will have to make some tough choices going forward if not this year, then the next. Bad contracts like Baez or Zimmerman can hit any team, but when they do, its devastating for the fan base. We hope for the best with Baez, but few believe that will happen. GO TIGERS !!!!
Skrubal knows yo mama
Would love to see Malloy & Perez on the team. You know what you’ve got with McKinstry—not much and not necessary. Unload Baez. Torres was not necessary as well. By the time all of McGonigle, Rainer, Jobe, Malloy, Perez et al are firmly entrenched on this team, this is going to be a very good & very exciting team. There was even another SS I was reading about the other day.
Let’s not forget about Clark, the best of all of them. Lee looks pretty good apparently too. Though I’ve only read about him and haven’t seen him play yet.
My friend of a friend says that’s baloney.
I told them go after Corey Seager. All I heard was, “Oh, he won’t last at short. He would have to move.”
I don’t care, play him at short till you need to move him. No sense in settling for your 3rd choice. I would have taken Correa next. Let Baez and Story and Semien go to other teams looking for leftovers.