Brenton Doyle has been one of the brightest spots amidst a terrible two-year run for the Rockies. The former fourth-round pick has emerged as a quality everyday center fielder. Doyle has won Gold Gloves in each of his first two MLB seasons. The defense was the only value he provided as a rookie, as he was arguably the league's worst regular hitter in 2023. He took a huge step forward in his sophomore season to break out as a quality all-around contributor.
Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs across 603 plate appearances last season. That's essentially league average offense according to park-adjusted metrics that account for Coors Field. That's a major leap from his .203/.250/.343 showing as a rookie. Doyle would be an All-Star caliber player if he can simply maintain league average production at the plate. He leads all outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average since making his debut. Only Daulton Varsho has more Defensive Runs Saved. Doyle is probably a top three defensive outfielder in the game. He went 30-35 on stolen base attempts last year.
Last season's offensive strides came with a real change in process. The right-handed hitter had a markedly improved plate discipline profile. He cut his strikeout rate by almost 10 percentage points. After fanning 35% of the time during his rookie season, he struck out at a 25.4% clip last year. He chased fewer pitches off the plate and increased his walk rate by a couple points. Among players with 400+ plate appearances in each season, only Red Sox's catcher Connor Wong had a bigger improvement in his strikeout rate. No one took a more significant step forward than Doyle in making contact on a per-pitch basis.
That presents an interesting evaluation. The bullish case is that it demonstrates Doyle's capacity to make offensive adjustments, perhaps hinting at an even higher ceiling as he enters his third season against big league pitching. On the other hand, it's fair to wonder if last year's improvement is entirely sustainable. Players don't always progress linearly. Doyle's numbers tailed off in the second half, especially in September. He still made far more contact late last season than he had as a rookie, but his .234/.274/.407 line coming out of the All-Star Break is far below the .276/.343/.471 mark he carried into it.
Even amidst their rebuild, the Rockies have prioritized locking up players they consider key pieces. They've had mixed results on that front. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions haven't panned out. Ryan McMahon's production has been up-and-down. Last spring's $63MM investment in Ezequiel Tovar looks like the best of the bunch, as the 23-year-old shortstop had a strong second full season in the majors.
Is Doyle next in line? Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote a couple weeks ago that Colorado has had some internal conversations about the possibility. What kind of prices could the team and Doyle's camp at the Ballengee Group discuss?
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I’ve been trying to extend myself for years but nothing works.
Don’t expect any help from us !
Five Bucks!!
Better in general to have players string together at least a couple consecutive good years and be really sure they are self-motivated to improve. Guaranteed big money changes people. Too many early extensions based off industry raw tool prospect rankings (tells nothing of work ethic) or 1 good year. Be happy to pay more for young players waiting another year, and if player not interested at that point, it’s not a bad thing to have someone bet on themselves to make a lot in arbitration raises until FA.
I don’t have premium to read the article but I can’t imagine he’s worth more than $120MM over 7-8 years
That’s crazy, no way. He’s had one good season. Author of the article 55-60 mill and that’s high.
My brain went straight to 6/$60MM after reading the lede.
Shouldn’t cost much since he’s all leather and no wood.
OK so he’s a solid hitter. But if I’m him I’m not staying in Denver.
I felt like that CarGo extension basically worked out perfectly- he got his money, they didn’t pay a bunch more than they would have if he’d just gone through the normal arbitration process, but they might have designated him for assignment or gotten him to sign a cheaper extension later, but either way I think it wound up surprisingly fair for both sides.
I played baseball with Doyle for a summer back in 2017, it is crazy to think how I played with someone who might go on to make $50 million in the Major Leagues. I’m hoping for the best for him!
I think it’s funny that we don’t even need a by-line. We just know exactly who wrote this article. Just from reading each sentence. It is obvious.
$0 the team should go to arb each year since they control him through age 31.
They’ll probably give him a 9 year deal though. It’s the Rockies.