The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Red Sox signing Alex Bregman (1:15)
- The Tigers just missing on Bregman (9:35)
- The Cardinals seemingly holding onto Nolan Arenado (12:15)
- The Padres signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart (17:40)
- The Blue Jays not getting an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20:50)
- The Diamondbacks extending Geraldo Perdomo (31:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
- Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here
- Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
- Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Alex Bregman settled for less overall money, only to end up right in the middle of a team position player controversy. Sometimes the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence.
He handled it well saying he’ll play wherever.
“He handled it well”..He sure did. Bregman, by all accounts, is a stand up, class guy. No one’s ever heard me aay otherwise. It’s just very sad to see his free agency so poorly handled that he ends up leaving a no-tax state(where he’s beloved), to end up in a massive tax state and in the middle of a team splitting controversy. And, for less overall money than his prior team offered him.
Bregman should have accepted the $156 million from Houston and stayed where he he was.
Had he done that —- more than likely Arenado would have been playing first base in Houston.
Arenado’s value is on defense at 3B. His hitting is league average. That was a no go from the start.
Grass is greener for Bregman. $12 million greener.
“$12M greener”…Only for people who can’t add. $156M is still substantially more than $120M(you can cut it up, slice it or pay it out on any schedule you like, but it’s still substantially less than $156M)the last time I checked. You cannot count money that he might or might not earn in the future.
And let’s not even talk about the millions MORE in TAXES(or moving expenses & inconvenience to family)he’ll now be paying. All in all it seems more like a big hassle and Net loss with no real return vs staying in Houston.
If he has a monster year he can make that contract and more because of the opt out. Plus if he falls off, 120 mil is nothing to scoff at.
Wise post… one might even say very sagacious.
Notice that the Padres CEO spoke on the team adding payroll and maintaining a top ten payroll yet no mention was made of it on this site. Not a single word…
The narrative that the small media market Padres can’t hang with the payroll big boys is well entrenched among pundits
$40 million is more than $24.5-26 million. 6/156 is $26 million AAV and 7/171.5 is $24.5 million AAV. Both the Houston and Detroit offers included deferrals in amounts we don’t know the specifics of so that lowered the value of both of those deals as well.
Opt outs have a huge and real value. On average, an opt out after 1-year results in a 18.33% increase in earnings over the AAV of the contract with the opt out and 42.5% increase over the season previous to signing the deal with the opt out. That includes players like Montgomery and Bellinger that did not opt out.
An 18.33% increase in earnings would result in Bregman getting $182 million over 7 years.
“Nice that the Padres had a change of heart…”
I dunno guys, I think their offseason has reflected everything that the Pads FO has actually told us, rather than a narrative that has been made up and perpetuated by various media (cutting payroll, trading stars, etc…). Pads FO said publicly in November and again yesterday that nothing had changed in their long term commitments to field a team that will continue to be a top 10 payroll team with the goal ( this year and into the future) of competing for a WS. That was Peter Seidler’s plan, they are following through.
Bingo! I posted several times recently, that the F.O. strategy was to keep as close to the CBT line as possible, and hope that something (i.e. a trade) breaks sometime during the year to pull them just below it. Said that they wouldn’t blow the season away for $10M plus/minus, to get under the CBT.
That’s just about what’s happened (disclaimer, with AJP, anything is possible at any time). The Pads weren’t signing huge deals for FA stars, because they didn’t need to do that to remain competitive. They’ve hit a plateau where they can add or subtract at the margins to stay in the hunt. That’s entirely different than the “bad ol’ days” when the Pad were lucky to have one All-star caliber player on the squad.
I do think, however, that the long term plan involves trading away some of the existing long term contracts (maybe 1 or 2) for deals involving prospects. The main money crunch at the moment is scraping up the cash to extend newer talent, e.g. Merrill and/or maybe King. In 2026, they’ll automatically drop some money. Who knows, if De Vires develops, quickly enough, guys like Merrill and/or Bogaerts become active trade candidates. Anything is possible, except accurate, short term, “static analysis”, which is what fans and sports analysts focus on.
Old Salt, the Padres are pretty close to the 2nd CBT line. They would have to have a trade deadline fire sale to drop $18 million or more at that point.
@Baseballisthebest
$18M sounds a bit high, but you might be close, and by the trade deadline, any trades would involve saving only partial salaries . Too many things still in play now, to know for sure.. If the Padres slip out of contention, I could see it happening if they fell too far out of contention. Injuries to starting pitchers out of the gate, could do that to almost any team (not named the Dodgers).
Between $17M and $18M is where they are projected now.
Salt, he is pretty close.
Cots Baseball Contracts has the Padres at $263,227,679 so $22 million over the $241 million 1st CBT threshold and $2 million over the $261 million 2nd threshold.
Roster Resource has the Padres at $259,273,680 which is $18.273 million over the 1st threshold and $2 million under the 2nd.
I believe that Cots is correct, because Roster Resource has the total for Hosmer at $12.865 million but when he was traded his contract had a $17.240 million AAV. I believe that is what the Padres are on the hook for in terms of CBT calculations.
Either way, they are pretty close to that $261 million 2nd CBT threshold.
Something to keep in mind is that right now the Padres are almost exactly at the $260 million midpoint between 20213 and 2024 payrolls that Kutsenda and Greupner have been saying all offseason that they would end up at and that they have been saying is sustainable.
Yeah I think at this point they are okay with paying 1st tier CBT penalty, which isn’t much anyway. But if they are out of contention at TD it might still be possible to jettison a few guys (Suarez, Cease, and someone else) to get back under.
Brew, at the deadline the Padres would get 1/3 of the salary of those guys as payroll relief. $4.5 million for Cease, $3.33 million for Suarez. $4.62 million for Arraez, and because of the way his contract is structured, just $1.32 million for King.
They could trade all of them and not get under the 1st CBT threshold. The total would be about $13.77 million saved.
They would have to move someone like Machado ($10.23 million) or Bogaerts ($8.25 million), plus at least a couple of those 4 to get under the 1st threshold.
Realistically its not feasible at the deadline. It would mean gutting the team and starting over.
Geez, yeah I completely forgot about the mid season calculation reducing the full AAV. Thanks
@OldSaltUSN “…the long term plan involves trading away some of the existing long term contracts (maybe 1 or 2) for deals involving prospects.”
—–The problems there are two:
1) Their long term deals are all badly underwater
2) They won’t get significant prospects unless they plan to pay down those deals by as much as half a billion dollars in total.
10/$315m to Tatis?
9/323 to Machado?
9/230 to Bogaerts?
These are all ridiculous contracts. The Padres could pay all three down by a total of $300 million and still have to send a prospect or three along to unload them.
Even the 6/72m to Cronenworth has negative surplus value.
Padres never had a change of heart. They have done exactly what they said they would do all offseason. They have been refreshingly transparent about their goals and actions.
@Brew88 The Padres FO may well have rewritten their publicity releases to fit what they discovered they’re able to do. It would take at least $400 million in eaten salary to get significant prospects in return for their Absurd 3 contracts, Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado. Darvish and Cronenworth are underwater, as well
They’re stuck, so they sensibly made a modest investment in Pivetta after picking up some cheap filler and will play it year to year.
Let’s face it—their 4 biggest contracts are all horrible. No one’s taking them on. In about 3 years for their $120m a year they’re going to be getting whatever Tatis can put up at age 29 and little if anything from the other three at 35 and older. They’ll be buried for the 5, 6 years following, beginning in 2028 or ’29, so why not scrounge up a $13.75m AAV over the next four years and go for it while Machado and Bogaerts are still moderately productive?
Throw in Jackson Merril and the Redsox might return your phone call. Without another plus player involved I can’t see why Boston would have interest in that particular proposal.
How do the Pads win?
Exchange Manny for Tatis and I’d say it’s fair
Heck Brew, since they’re just talking out-of-their-minds insanity, make it Bogaerts for Devers, Duran, and Crawford, and call it a day?
To these fans of other teams, Padres all starts are just trade bait for their “sure thing” prospects. Heck, anyone proposing a trade including Merrill is a priori NUTS. Merrill isn’t a nickel-and-dime “throw in”, for any trade. He’s probably a $300M+ ballplayer in about four years. Unbelievable nonsense!
I’d do Bogey for Devers, Duran and Crawford straight up
@Brew88
Yeah, I think the real problem would be to get those stubborn Red Sox F.O. people to agree to that deal. (Plus, they’d probably want money back in that deal.) I do think Boggey will have his best Padre year this year, though. Of all the things that tick me off about that trade was that apparently the Padres F.O. KNEW about his bad wrist, and still went along with the long term contract. Seems like a poor decision.
Brew’88
Exchange Manny for Tatis and I’d say it’s fair
==========================
$316M/9, until age 40, is unmovable. If Bregman gets $95M/3, and 2 years younger, then Manny is underwater by somewhere close to $200M..
Bogaerts has a better contract than Manny, but is still underwater by about $130M.
@Joe Brady
Didn’t say it was realistic! Just being hopeful
Hey Salt. I’m looking forward, or hoping anyway, to Bogaerts finally being healthy this year to see what he can still do. It’s 6 or 7 years from now that I’m most concerned about.
Well, I dunno ’bout you, but I might not even be alive in 7 years. Mortality has it’s advantages, right? lol
The only good thing about these flat rate, long term contracts, is that they look better as MLB inflation hits, year after year. I don’t know what’s possible under MLB rules, but maybe Padre owners will just accept 2-3 years of the lux tax, and pay off some long term contracts early to take them off the books, and clear salary.
But as you say the problem is (well, should be) down the road. The real problem is when the up front years, the years that are supposed to benefit current Padre teams, result in non-performance due to injury or just “Hosmer”. Then the Pads are stuck with nothing but back end liability.
I hope I make it to 2032, one never knows. But I hear ya, let’s parade ASAP
Brew, there is no way a manager like Shildt or a baseball rat like Preller would ever trade for a me first player like Devers. He is the opposite of what the Padres want to add to their culture. There is no trade that includes him coming to the Padres that is fair.
I would like to make a trade with the Red Sox though. LHP Austin Krob and RHP Bradgely Rodriguez for Garret Whitlock and $5.5 million. Padres send two minor leaguers just outside of their top 10 prospects, A LH starter who is a slider specialist and a flame throwing righty reliever. Both are on the verge of MLB readiness. Whitlock has suffered a permanent demotion to the Red Sox pen because an inability to stay healthy and is guaranteed $14 million over the next 2 seasons.
Sorry to be cryptic, but I wasn’t serious above
Another great podcast guys!
I really like Darragh’s take on the Devers situation. There’s so much more involved than just Bregman being the better defensive 3B, and if he has a good season he is definitely opting out anyway.
Regardless of whether Bregman opts out, the Red Sox win more games if Devers is not at 3B. If the Red Sox put a 0.0 WAR player at 3B and Devers at DH they are a better team.
Baseball – You are not thinking it through, you are looking at it with tunnel vision.
YES the defense at 3B would obviously be much better.
What about 2B? We don’t know who would play there, could be a combination of Hamilton/Campbell/Grissom. How do you know all three combined would be as good as Bregman? You don’t, they could be much worse actually.
How do you know Devers would adapt at DH? You don’t know. He could be so unhappy about it that his hitting suffers. Not every player can adapt to being a fulltime DH.
And what of Yoshida? Does he get released? Does he play LF? Either way you are losing quite a bit of offense there, while also potentially weakening the outfield defense.
These are just some of the things that were obviously meant by “so much more involved” which you apparently failed to grasp.
They are a T-E-A-M. It’s silly to look at the move of Devers to DH as impacting just Devers.
FPG, you have it all wrong. Devers would have had a 4.1 WAR at DH and had a 3.7 at 3B. His defense is that bad, it is already the worst in MLB, it is not getting any better, and with every year that he gets fatter and older it will get worse. The TEAM wins more games with him at DH no matter who is playing 3B.
Place Campbell at 3B and they win more games. Place any replacement level player with good defense there and the team wins more games than with Devers at 3B.
ALL Devers does is hit. If he can’t hit at DH then the team made a humongous mistake signing him to an extension at all.
Eat Yoshida’s contract. Its a sunk cost. Place him on the IL to start the season and then if they can’t trade him, DFA him. After the surgery he had its nearly 100% certain that his already mediocre hitting will suffer in 2025 and he will not be able to play any defensive position. Research shows it takes 3 seasons to recover to baseline performance after that surgery. His baseline is already really low.
The last thing is that the Red Sox are a TEAM and Devers has said that he is not willing to do what will help the TEAM win the most possible games. If the Red Sox allow one player to get away with dictating where he plays to the detriment of the TEAM, then they will never be able to create a team first culture, the “I am willing to do whatever it takes to win and go to war with these guys” attitude that winning teams must have.
They may as well mail it in at that point. They won’t be able to win consistently enough to be in the playoffs. Spending that money and prospects on Bregman and Crochet will have been for naught.
Why does anyone expect the BlueJays to do the right thing? Shapiro and Atkins are leading the show so that can’t happen.
This BlueJays mess was called correctly in 2015/16 in these very pages when those two were hired by Rogers.
We shouldn’t be surprised, nor will anything ever change in BlueJays losing-land while these two are in charge. Period.
jimmer – Personally I’m fine with how the Jays are being run. As long as they have Loonie Dog nights, they can do whatever they want.
Sadly, after his comments it would be nearly impossible to trade Devers. It would have already been difficult because a $33.5 million DH is a hard pill to swallow. Devers has a $2 million per year assignment bonus if he is traded.
I know you are trolling just trying to get a rise out of people, so will leave it at that.
Best, no one wants a player that is more worried about himself than in the team winning. You are right that the Red Sox would have a very hard time moving him now.
Its ok to be upfront about how you feel, but at the end of the day and conversation players have to be about the team most of all.
Only Padres post so going to post this here.
Some updates. Bought some new toys this offseason. One measures bat speed. You used to need units like Trackman to do it, but this new device is handheld and accurate to within a hundredth of a MPH. You will see me with multiple devices at spring training this year.
I got some swing speed updates on a few Padres with my new toy.
I’ll start with Arraez. In the past StatCast had him in game situations at between 63-64 mph. I had him in a simulated game situation with live pitching at 67-69 mph today. I was astounded at that large of an increase and asked him about it later. He just said, “My hand feels good, and I am rested.”
Tatis Jr has always been up near the top of the league in bat speed. Last season he was in the 84th percentile at 74.9 mph. Today he was absolutely crushing balls with bat swing speed as high as a 77.2 mph and most over 76 mph. He had a swarm around him so didn’t get to ask him about it. It “feels” more like how he was hitting back in 2021 but StatCast didn’t measure bat swing speeds back then.
On the other end was Gavin Sheets. He has been consistent on StatCast at 72.7-72.8 mph the last 2 seasons. In his batting practice against live pitching today he was at 68.9-69.2 mph. When I asked him about it as he left the field, he said, “Its spring training. Just getting loose”.
On the pitching end I was surprised at how hard Patino is throwing just 9 months after his 2nd Tommy John surgery. He was sitting about 94-94.5 in a short, (21 pitch?), bullpen.
I didn’t see Kolek throw a single sweeper or slider in his session. Just sinker, 4 seam, cutter, and changeup. That might be because it is early in spring training and he is not throwing breaking balls yet, and it might be that he will cut those ineffective pitches out of his repertoire this season. We will see.
Paying $400m+ for a 4-win DH turning 27 his first FA year is lunacy. A DH already miscast as a 1Bman,the talk of Vlad moving to 3B has no reality to it. The Jays let him put in the very occasional guest appearance at third as a sop to the star’s ego. —$400m would be $70+m worse than the Devers contract.
Bregman taking 3/90m in NPV instead of Detroit’s rumored 6/171m was an odd choice, unless he has a particular love for the Red Sox. Does he really expect to better 3/81m as a 34 year old in FA? He’s a good player, but he’s nowhere near _that_ good.
Tigers are not going to re-enter the Bregman market next off season if he happens to opt out. Bora$$’s attempt to smooth things over went over like a lead balloon with the Tigers and its fanbase. We’ll see if Jung, or Lee can handle 3B for the near future this year. If so, great. If not, the Tigers will look at a different option than Bregman.
You grossly overstate the case. He won a gold glove at first in 2022. Hardly a “DH miscast as a 1Bman” as you state.
In your rush to diss the man you really took a short cut around the facts.
Bottom line is he decided to accept more per season but less overall and signed with Boston. I wish him the best, and honestly I’m glad he signed in Boston, 6 years in Comerica would have been rough for him, it sucks for right handed players. He’ll thrive in Fenway, and will be a great deal for the Sox! I would love to see him play for Detroit, but not for 7-200 million. I think the Tigers will be better than last season at third, and the kids will keep improving
Bregman in NPV took 3/90m from Boston, while Detroit was offering 6/171.5m, a $28.6m AAV.
If Bregman thinks he’s going back on the market at 34 and getting 3/81.5m and effectively piecing together two contracts to get the same amount and same AAV Detroit offered, he’s dreaming.
He’s also not putting up a 6 win season in 2025 and convincing some team to beat 5/141m for his age 32-36 seasons. Anyone remember the last position player FA to get a long term deal at a 28.2m AAV beginning at age 32? Machado’s extension might qualify, but you could glue $100m to Machado and there isn’t a GM in MLB who’d take on the player and his ridiculous contract. Preller should be slapped with a mackerel for giving in and giving out that extension. There’s no way he couldn’t beat Machado’s performance by going out on the FA market that offseason, with $300m to play with. Machado did the Padres an incredible favor by opting-out, but they blew it.
He’s a near-certainty to be getting both a lower AAV and lower overall money. 34 year old position-playing FAs in this century don’t hit the FA market and get close to $30m a year.
Bregman must…
1) really like Boston, or
2) really loathe Detroit, or
3) he simply doesn’t care about money, or
4) his agent tried to tell him that Boston’s 3/120m is only worth 3/90m and like most ballplayers he had no idea what his agent was saying.