Extension talks between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t result in a deal before the start of Spring Training. That has been the slugger’s self-imposed deadline. While he left the door ajar to hearing out other offers from Toronto, Guerrero said last month that he expects to test free agency.
The four-time All-Star provided some details on negotiations in a Spanish-language interview with Enrique Rojas and Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. ESPN has also published a summary of Guerrero’s comments in English. Most notably, he says that his camp’s final offer to the Jays checked in below $600MM, though he did not provide the specific asking price. He pushed back against the suggestion that he was seeking a deal comparable to the $765MM which Juan Soto secured from the Mets.
While Guerrero seemingly wasn’t pursuing an average annual value close to Soto’s $51MM mark, he did seek one of the largest contracts ever. Guerrero indicated he was looking for 14 or 15 years. Soto’s 15-year contract is the longest of all time. Fernando Tatis Jr. inked a 14-year extension, but that began in his age-22 season. Guerrero turns 26 in a few weeks. Even if the extension proposal would have bought out his final arbitration year, a deal of 14-plus years would run through at least age 39.
The Jays were involved in the Soto bidding. They were seemingly among the teams willing to go above $600MM on the superstar outfielder. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported shortly after Soto agreed to his deal with the Mets that Toronto’s last offer landed below $700MM. One could argue they should be willing to make a similar investment for Guerrero, but his track record has been less consistent — which is reflected in the comparably lower asking price.
Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. Soto has a lifetime .285/.421/.532 batting line; he hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 longballs during his walk year with the Yankees. Guerrero said in December that the Jays had made an offer in the $340MM range prior to the Soto contract. That would have valued him similarly to Rafael Devers, who inked a $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox in 2023. Devers was a career .283/.342/.512 hitter who was entering his age-26 season at the time. While he played a more valuable position, he’s a below-average defender at the hot corner.
It remains to be seen whether the Soto contract will dramatically improve the market for future top free agents. Teams could view him as an outlier, the kind of free agent who might only come along once every few decades. From a net present value perspective, Soto obliterated prior precedent. Shohei Ohtani’s deal was valued around $461MM and $438MM by MLB and the Players Association, respectively. That reflected the massive deferral structure. Either net present value still represented the largest contract in league history at the time. Soto broke that record by more than $300MM.
Guerrero and Kyle Tucker headline next winter’s free agent class. Tucker is coming off a monster .289/.408/.585 showing and plays a solid right field. He’s arguably the better player in the short term, but Guerrero is two years younger. That could give him the greatest earning power in the class, though it’ll obviously be heavily dependent on their respective platform seasons. Guerrero will make $28.5MM in his final year of arbitration.
I mean without reading it, No duh??
So less than 40 per over 15 years. Why not Toronto ?? They are such a difficult front office to figure out ! As hard as it is to get a player to sign in Canada, you have a home grown star willing to stay and you won’t pay him market value ?? I’ve had a lot of grace for the Toronto front office but this just seems like a serious miscalculation
@Big Whiffa
Especially considering that an extension was always going to be a good idea for the reason you mention AND said extension was only going to get more expensive the longer they waited.
And given that Juan Soto’s free agency was ALWAYS going to negatively impact Toronto’s ability to re-sign Vlad–given the similarity in ages in their walk years, Soto’s number was sure to greatly encourage Vladdy to hit the open market–the organization’s internal deadline should’ve been AT LEAST a year ago.
Meanwhile, Toronto will forever remain but a stalking horse, in the race only to goose the numbers for FAs who’d prefer to ply their trade in the Lower 48.
Lmfao “market value” maybe if he wins the MVP this year combined with his age that would be market value. For now he’s not worth a penny over 300M and you know it. Wouldn’t hurt the big boy to drop 20 pounds either.
300 mil ? He’s going to get closer to 600 than 300. 300 million contracts are a thing of the past
$300M? What year is this, 2014?
Big whiffa
So less than 40 per over 15 years. Why not Toronto ??
=========================
Because he will be 41 in his final season. This would effectively be a $600M/10 contract when accounting for his productive years.
@joe, the end of vottos contract wasn’t so bad. It was a huge amount of money at the beginning, but in his late 30’s, it was 25 mil per. So in a decade, 40 per will hurt a lot less than todays and that helps when these guys age
Why not? Because that contract is stupid.
What a bargain. He said under 600 if you believe that. Probably 595 or something. Some team will be the sucker to pay the price. If Toronto is not doing well mid season they may move him.
He’s been pretty inconsistent. At least Soto you could rely on his production. Vladdys had 1.5 years of above average production, the other years he was a middling first baseman based off WAR.
Do they pay in flannel up there in the Freezer?
MLB data shows star athletes make up 15-20% of payroll on winning teams. Even taking 20%, a player at $50M a year means the overall payroll needs to be $250M. For 2024, that was just 3 teams: Mets, Yankees, Dodgers.
Tony Clark and Rob Manfred, start your absurd conversations from here.
So Vladdy is asking between $500M and $600M then? I’m sure the Jays will eventually leak their extension offer.
Any team that gives that fat loaf 450 million let alone the numbers there talking about is going to regret it instantly
I am sure your a specimen of fitness. He has worked hard. He is a good player
*you’re
Grammar Police are at it again
I’m 44 and do taekwondo so yeah I’m in better shape than at least this pro athlete. It’s a pretty low bar obviously.
If I was vlad I’d sign a 1 year pillow deal and wait till after the lockout after the 2026 season under the new CBA to get the money
Grammar police need to go back to school where they got attention for their good grammar. The rest of us do not care!
May be less money to go around after the lock out
If he is a “good” player, he should be paid like a “good” player. Yes, he has shown the ability to hit. He is also overweight and slow. He is a below average fielder (he was never deserving of a GG, tho he did improve). His goal should be Freeman level. The team that signs him shouldn’t expect Freeman level production.
I care about good grammar.
And never on the injured list.
The slow first baseman argument that is used against every first baseman out there. Freeman wished he had the start to his career like Vladdy. Freeman has never had the year Vladdy just put up either. Maybe the Dodgers replace the aging Freeman with Vladdy.
No thanks.
Me too!
Guess you’ve never been an office assistant or manager or needed to write a professional business letter. Those of us who have, always roll our eyes at comments such as yours
@thatsit?, don’t reaaly care @vladdy and this – demand – BUT you get an upvote for “fat loaf”. Gold… !
When he wins a triple crown in his first season of the contract?
@ThatsIT? He’s a 4 win player, very similar to Devers albeit with a wider range of projections. Even $400m is absurd.
It’s fair to say the deal has a range of $200m depending on what Vlad does in 2025, and since that’s the reality the Jays FO was facing this offseason, they did well not to sign a contract granting this… mercurial player the high end of that range.
He won’t sniff the type of contract he’s hoping for. Just remember what happened to Alonso. First basemen will rarely get a contract higher than what Freeman received.
And the age issue won’t hold water against his physique issue. The best I predict is a 10 year 325M contract, and that’s pushing it. Remember Prince Fielder.
Fielder was 3 inches shorter and forty pounds heavier. Let’s not get too carried away on how big Vladdy is.
Toronto got best years of a guy who doesn’t play a premium position. Perfect jumping off point. A good FO if they make a change can buy several FAs with that kind of cash while improving focus on player development.
High end free agents use the Bluejays as bargaining chips.They will not sign here.
Springer was high end that offseason despite known durability concerns. Free agents use every single club to drive up the price as SOP in negotiations. I’m talking improved internal player development priority #1 and go out for the complementary pieces in trade or FA…….if you’re relying on “winning” 300mil+ bids (in this case likely in 400s) on 1 player against LAD/NYY/NYM/Philly/Cubs/RSox the vision and l-t planning is the problem.
But will more than one of those teams be looking for a 1B? It takes two to drive a bidding war. Seattle and Milwaukee biding won’t move the needle.
AKA “8 times the Lawrence Butler extension”
If my math is right I think I would rather have 8 Lawrence butlers instead of one snack bar destroyer
That’s still a wrong answer. Butler’s contract is a dumb and dumber signing.
“Stupid” is not acceptable as a point of reference.
Which party is dumb, and which is dumber?
Butler secured the future of his grandchildren with life changing money is he NOT supposed to want that?
Honestly, I’ve never been able to figure it out.
@heels
If “Stupid” is not an acceptable point of reference, then Soto’s contract can’t be used either.
If the Mets sign either Guerrero or Tucker the Mets could have over 1 billion dollars in payroll between 2 players on paper.
Miami marlins and / of Sacramento athletics are only valued at around 1 billion for the entire franchise. So what the Mets could pay 2 players is enough to buy another major league team
Guerrero to Mets and Tucker to dodgers
I wouldn’t rule out the Phillies. Schwarber and Realmuto are off the books next winter, Castellanos the following year and Wheeler the year after so the team has lots of money off the books over the next three winters and when Bryce Harper says he’s willing to move back to the OF to accommodate another First Baseman he’s not talking about Dom Smith or Matt Mervis…
Rsox – But that’s the thing, they are interested in extending both Schwarber and Realmuto. If they do, how does the addition of a $500M contract fit?
And if they don’t, how expensive will it be to replace that production?
you don’t know the Phillies very well. there is zero chance they want to give VG over $500M. whoever signs him to even a 12 year contract will be sorry.
Agreed fever pitch, @32 Schwarber is in shape clearly and a clubhouse leader. The catching market is thin PLUS Realmuto is integral w/ the success of the staff.
The 2 of them will make roughly what Vlad will be asking for…
No diss on Vlad either way, let him get whatever he can, but rather have 2 guys who mesh w/ the team and are leaders.
You don’t know the Phillies very well if you think they wouldn’t. They paid Harper. They gave a huge AAV to Wheeler. The only difference with the Phillies and Mets spending is the Phillies already signed their huge contracts.
Give you the grade for effort, but an incomplete for content.
Phillies only have so much money to spend. Both Middleton and Dombrowski have talked about the luxury tax thresholds.
Could they ink him, of course, would it be money well spent given their current roster construction, nope.
Adding a potential 1.000 OPS guy to that lineup would be money very well spent. They definitely aren’t going to let the Mets control the division for the next decade by cutting payroll and letting the Mets spend every year. They have plenty of money coming off the books and they always make a big move when that happens.
Interested in and actually doing are not the same thing. And even so Schwarber probably doesn’t get much more than he’s getting now and Realmuto should actually get less given his age and position. Castellanos and Walker a both free agents after the ’26 season and free up $38 million and that’s if either one isn’t traded before hand
Mets – You’re missing the obvious.
When they signed Harper and Wheeler, they didn’t have a $299M payroll like they do now.
They don’t have the spending power of the Dodgers or Yankees, their revenue isn’t enough to sustain that kind of spending.
The Phillies had a revenue of 458 million last year. The Dodgers had a revenue of 550million. While there is a difference it’s not as dramatic as you are stating. The Dodgers payroll and tax bill is approximately 100 million more than the Phillies which is in line with their revenue difference. There is absolutely no reason to think the Phillies payroll will ever go down but increase gradually every season.
Mets – Sorry, I’m the wrong Guy to throw out false information at.
The revenue numbers you stated are for 2023, not last year as you claim. It was pre-Ohtani & Yamamoto for the Dodgers, and for the Yanks it was pre-Soto and based on a rare non-playoff season for them.
Nobody said the Phillies payroll would necessarily go down, but they sure as heck don’t want to go deep into 110% tax territory. There’s a reason why they did so little in free agency this offseason.
You probably don’t realize this, but their big free agent signings were Max Kepler, Joe Ross, and Jordan Romano. All three were signed to a one-year contract with a cumulative price tag of $22.5 million. Go figure.
I understand they didn’t go big in free agency this year. They had no money coming off the books. They do next year. So the Dodgers revenue did go up to 637million last year but their payroll expenses with luxury tax went up to 440million. The Phillies actually had less of a disparity of payroll to revenue as the Dodgers did. Acting like the Phillies are poor is a ridiculous argument. They will definitely be players for Guerrero or Tucker this year.
Mets – Who said poor? Haha! They’ve maxed out their credit cards and therefore have to cut back on spending.
Time will tell how much payroll space is freed up after this season, but keep in mind if Realmuto & Schwarber walk the Phillies would likely have to spend to replace them. I would be shocked if both walk though, maybe one will.
Where did you come up with 2024 team figures? Forbes hasn’t published theirs yet.
The Scrooge index via the score. The only team to go into negative money to pay for their payroll was the Mets. No one else is even close to losing money. The Phillies have shown no inclination of cutting spending. They didn’t decrease payroll in fact they have one of the highest payroll increases coming into this season from last year.
@Rsox
After waiting this long to get Castellanos and Schwarber out of the outfield defense, why would they want to move Bryce out there? Its debatable whether he was better than Nick.
He may not be, but he said he was willing to go back to the Outfield to accommodate a 1B addition. Phillies could make a play for Alonso next winter if he opts out of his Mets deal and the Mets pounce on Vladdy. He’s not talking about the Ty France’s or the Josh Bell’s of the sport
@Rsox
That’s nice of Bryce to say, but let me know when Dave D says something on the topic. Bryce doesn’t control the purse strings, and this is not the NFL where Bryce restructures his contract to allow another player to fit into the budget. Still, it beats him pulling a Devers.
Mets – I’m familiar with Scrooge, they used 2023 revenue with 2024 payroll.
Like I said, 2024 revenue figures haven’t been released yet. Scrooge uses a different methodology for 2023 revenue as it doesn’t align with Forbes’ 2023 revenue estimates.
You forgot to mention over 15 years. Give it a few more years and it will be common amongst most paying teams.
If Tucker does not get 30% more than “Vladdy” I might be done with MLB.
That’s an interesting hill to die on. What if we all didn’t care what the players make? Life would be so simple.
What? I’m suppose to just ignore the price of a hot dog?
Yes, there’s other food to eat at the ballpark. Are you there for the game or the food?
the beer. Definitely the beer.
The hotdogs.
Blasphemy! There are plenty of places outside the ballpark to get your fancy foods but inside the ballpark; hotdogs! (Unless in KC, then its B.B.Q., and hotdogs!)
Have you watched Tucker’s swing? It won’t age well. A two month vacation in the middle of the season with a bone bruise – unprecedented in any sport. Bat silence in the post season. Crane did well to jettison him now. We loved him in Houston but pretty sure we got the best years.
Not to mention his statcast numbers show his speed declining rapidly which will affect his defense.
That’s crazy. Vladdy is always healthy and is better then Tucker.
Would rather resign Alonso after he opts out then sign Tucker.
Soto, Nimmo, Tucker would be a great outfield.
Nimmo would be a DH in that scenario.
None can play center.
@Benjamin101677
maybe Cohen should buy the A’s from Fisher and just use it as a feeder source for his winning Mets instead of signing 2 players worth their entire franchise. Swap bad signings to the A’s for paper losses. I think that was effectively what the Yankees had been doing with all the small market teams for decades. lol
Like the Dodgers
Less than $600MM could mean $375MM.
Yeah, but I reckon he would have said below $400M if that were the case…
“It’s much less than Soto. We’re talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. … It was the same number of years [as Soto’s contract], but it didn’t reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn’t reach 600,” Guerrero said.
Guess he should have pushed for a trillion dollars.
Then celebrate the signing at the Waffle House.
Is there a Waffle House in Toronto?
they call it PoutineHouse though
Fan – Tim Hortons, eh.
Something’s gotta break somewhere at some point These contracts can’t keep going like this.
The few owners who can afford them make money off of them. People have been saying the same thing since Nolan Ryan broke the $1M mark in 1979.
Yup. Yankees went out of business and they folded the team. Free agency is baaaaad.
Sure they can
As long as fans keep paying that kinda money just to get a hot dog.
They can choose to eat popcorn, candy, ice cream, a slice of pizza, and other foods at the ballpark, too.
The point is that all of the food/drink is ridiculously overpriced. It’s not just about the hot dogs.
The price of food at the ballpark is driven by demand; fans are a captive market, just like at an airport. The prices reflect the landlord’s monopoly on the goods sold.
Prices on food are a facilitating cause of player salaries. Because the teams can gouge us on prices, they have money to spend on star players. The salaries of players are not driving up prices. In Boston, the team spent seven years slashing payroll, but prices at the ballpark went up every year. Lower payroll does not result in better prices for fans.
Hot dog prices are not impacted by the team payroll. Baseball tix are still cheap. Better to wait to gameday and buy off stubhub or similar. You can always find under face value. I am sure there are a handful or regular games that are tougher. When the Royals are paying the Yankeees the price will be even less.
You can choose to eat before or after the game.
? Really, dude ?
Hey…when it is all said and.done….
That is a $100 hotdog. Or more because you rich people pay.more….
You.dont care.
? Really, dude?
@bcjd Do people not bring food from home or takeout? I can do that at my home stadium, and the only time I’ve ever bought food at the ballpark was as a thank-you for someone giving me a free ticket.
Are hot dog prices impacted by tariffs?
Why not? Is it because they play a sport instead of sitting on a yacht everyday being a “CEO” ?
How far below $600 million? 3 is less than 600 million. But so is .75
By any sane measurement that island m….. is not worth a $300 million contract.
No one in their right mind would be interested in signing him if Kyle Tucker was still available and Tucker is a next level player.
“….that island m…..”
Say what?
He’s here trolling everyone as fast as he can. Requesting a proper sentence and clarity from Heels….
Yeah, good luck.
I want to think he means Montreal, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was born, which is also technically an island of itself on the Saint Lawrence River. But that’s wishful thinking on my part.
I think it’s safe to assume the contract demands is between 500-600, probably around or slightly over the midpoint.
If it was under 500, they would have said that instead of 600. 14 years at 40MM puts him at 560MM AAV, which fits nicely in that range. 15 years at 40Mm put him at 600.
Not advocating that he’s worth that, just trying to throw out some nice round numbers for ya.
595 most likely. He is not taking small money., These owners keep spending.
You couldn’t convince this years best FA 1B, Pete Alonso, that the owners keep spending.
A couple weeks back Papi said Vladdy deserves 585/13. It was an oddly specific number and I think that’s exactly what Vladdy’s counter was.
So Kyle Tucker deserves a billion dollar deal?
Vladdy said he wants 14 years.
Who’s your Vladdy.
@rondarling
Committing certain crimes can get him 14 years or more!
Baseball is headed in the wrong direction. There are teams that have worse (or no) TV deals than Juan Soto makes annually. Says all you need to know about the state of the sport.
If they signed Juan Soto they could get better tv deals, better sponsors, more attendance. Mets didn’t just give Soto that $ for his baseball ability.
More attendance does not cover 600 million dollar deals. Soto was never going to sign there. He used them only to say there are other bidders. Who says that more attendance will cover that sort of salary. The rest of what you mention. Questionable at best.
Baseball is headed in the wrong direction because of team owners such as yours, Cincyfan85.
Not the issue here. Vladdy can go play in Japan or South Korea if he is insulted by his valuation.
14/15 years. Inflation. Learn math.
Tired of people complaining about billionaires actually giving out a fair share to their employees for once.
Seriously? And what do you think about “fair share” to the teachers who taught you math? Interesting priorities Mr HADG.
What billionaires employ teachers? And why do you believe that because one demographic is underpaid, so should everyone else?
Any clue where the funds come from to pay teachers? How much taxes are you willing to pay to get those teachers to millionaire status?
You can’t just blow through payroll when there is the CBT to think about. “Fair share” needs to take into consideration the other players on your team. Paying 50 Mil/yr for a 30 hr 1B/ DH is destroying your salary structure. Get rid of the CBT then spend all you want.
CBT is put there so that other billionaires can pick up their bootstraps and build a winning team, but they’d rather use it on yachts instead.
If you don’t want to spend money to compete for free agents, buy real estate. Don’t buy a sports team. That includes paying the luxury tax.
I don’t see a 26 year old with his body type and inconsistent career getting 14-15 years. A 10 year deal at $50 million I could see. Especially if 20-30% of it was deferred. I think that unless he is as good or better than 2024 this season he is going to be disappointed in the FA offers he gets if close to $600 million is his goal.
The lack of consistency while demanding Soto type money is grim, Jays should let someone else jump on that grenade.
Power comes at a premium now. Only 20 players hit 30 or more homeruns in 2024. I don’t see that trend reversing unless MLB tinkers with the baseball again.
At the same time, how much is one HR worth?
Maybe not many guys hit over 30 hrs. But, is it worth paying an extra 20m/yr or more compared to some other player to add a not even a dozen or so HRs a season beyond what the other guy gives?
Depends on how many other people are hitting home runs. If there are less people hitting home runs, then these players become more valuable and it will reflect in both their wRC+ and WAR, answering your value question.
@HADG
Few players hit for average, but that hasn’t made them more valuable.
That would be because there are more players hovering around the mean for average than there are players hovering around for home runs.
This past off-season we’ve seen two of the most prolific homerun hitters sign for not all that much.
Over the past three years Pete Alonso is 4th in baseball in homeruns and only managed to get 2/54m. Anthony Santander is 6th in homeruns over that time and he got around 5yrs/70m factoring in the deferrals.
Vlad is 20th in homeruns these past three seasons. He has been worth 10.1 fWAR which is better than Alonso’s 8.7.
The Jay’s have struck out throwing big money at Ohtani and Soto the past off-seasons. I don’t think either of those two teams are going to be making 500m offers for Vlad. The Dodgers are too smart. The Mets could add him but I’m not even confident they give him 400m next off-season and think it’s more likely they end up prioritizing spending on higher end pitching after value shopping for arms this offseason.
Basically I wouldn’t be surprised if once he hits the open market if the high bidder ends up actually being Toronto.
He’s going to need a monster year to get 60% of Soto’s deal.
Throwing money at Ohtani made a lot of sense, a unique combination of world class starting pitcher and power hitter was a really worthwhile singing target.
IMOHO letting that signing dictate the market for quality hitters with mediocre position defense is a big mistake.
Unless Arte Moreno signs him as a swan song.
$300 million is too much. It’s unacceptable.
I would much rather have Freddie Freeman who is a much better player. Why is Freeman’s contract completely pathetic compared to what this creature is demanding?
Creature? “that island m….. “?
Dude, take all your racist comments and go back to the hole you came from. We get it- you’re jealous of a black man.
Creature? You’re on fire!
Freeman signed before the Soto contract reset the market.
Freeman signed when he was 6 years older than Vlad Jr will be when he signs. Old men rarely get paid.
A 26 year old DH. The guy is god awful at 1b. Possibly the worst ever GG winner of all time. I’ve watched him too many times to count not be able to find the bag, step with the wrong foot, step too soon and fall over. It’s watching an uncoordinated non baseball player playing 1b on your slopitch team. And you don’t notice it until you watch someone’s who actually good at the position play and make the same play look simple with proper footwork.
Guerrero’s greatest selling point is age. Seems too inconsistent and 1 dimensional to commit to a decade and a half K. Blue Jays should have moved him the moment they heard the ask. That will be a boat anchor for somebody.
Half B*
That ‘selling point’ is also one of his biggest detriments.
If he wasn’t as young as he is, he wouldn’t be demanding as many years, and putting as much risk on the team that he either significantly declines or gets hurt for a big number of years on the tail end.
He should take anything over $500
If he could get the Jays to pay him 40m/yr for the next decade today he should probably take that too. I don’t think his free agency is going to be anything like truly iconic players in Soto, Ohtani and Judge.
@padrepapi 100%, he’s not as marketable and I agree his FA experience will be disappointing
I agree. I don’t think he pulls down the deal he’s hoping for.
Why is this being discussed as if Vlad was some sort of reliable win producer instead of THE most erratic ballplayer in that regard since he came into the league?
He should take anything over 400 w opt outs ….. he may not get 500
That’s the price for Toronto. He’d have agreed if it was elsewhere.
This is a lot like the prince fielder situation
If Soto and ohtani did not sign those deals then Guerrero would be in the 400 million realm but Guerrero will probably reach 700
If we don’t think Pete Alonso is worth 160 mil then how is vlad worth 4 times that???
Guerrero isn’t getting anywhere near 700m.
Yeah, more specifically, who’s paying Vlad?
Not LAD, not NYM, not SD.
Some of the recent big spending teams can be eliminated at this point.
Fan – Why not the Mets? They are at $321M and Alonso’s $27M is coming off the books either next year or the year after and Marte’s $20M coming off after this year. They can afford a $335M payroll next year, and with a new CBA coming in 2027 now is the time to spend.
@FPG
Moving Vientos to 1B and adding a 3B who can field would be a better direction for the Mets.
He’s not even worth half of that.
SPOT ON.
585 million for 13 years is 45 million every year for 13 years. I would ask Vlad point blank, so if you want that without 2/3’s of it deferred or 390 million, that would equal 15 Million per season. That would allow the team to sign other players to surround Guerrero. If he wanted the whole 45 million with nothing deferred, it is time to trade him because, Vlad would be asked how he wants to be surrounded by Triple A players for at least ten years since his greed would prohibit the team from signing any substantial player. The team would have 200 million to spread out to 25 players or 8 million tops per player. Unfortunately, the way the game is moving into higher salaries, all that does is force younger and minimum wage players into the game, erasing the thirty – plus players that are forced to sign for 1 – 2 million for one season or tell them to retire. Many wouldn’t want to admit it, but higher salaries also push up the number for QOffers. Soon, it will be 30M for a bench player and teams will stop issuing them, knowing the player would take it and destroy the pay structure of the teams. Every action has an equal-in-strength reaction and there isn’t a player alive worth 30M a season, let alone a bench player.
Just curious… how do you set the threshold at $30M? Why not at 25 or 20?
As long as there are billionaire owners there will be players worth 30, 40, 50m/yr.
Complete joke! Will be out of the league in 5 years if he doesn’t learn to push himself from the dinner table!
Lock him out!
Lock him out!
Lock him out!
Vladdy for sure will be closely aligned to the Mets but I doubt they go 15. More like 12 years at best due to his weight concerns. I see the Yankees jumping in on Tucker, and no, I wouldn’t count him out with the Mets either, especially if Alonso opts out. They’ll just shift that money towards Tucker.
For some reason, I see the Nats making a splash.
Kyle Tucker to the Nats.
Kyle Tucker is a Chicago Cub. Get use to it.
The Mets have specifically stated they are disinclined to add another big contract and further limit roster flexibility, more than once.
There is a less than 0 chance the Mets actively engage Guerrero in contract negotiations. It is not happening with the Mets.
That was for this year. Did not apply to out years, and their signings this off season were intentional with thought for next year. And Vladdy would be a ~$15-20M per increase over the Alonso contract if he walks. That’s covered with Marte off the books as this is his final year.
Covered. Without an increase.
Guerrero is young and an iron man with a great (but not exemplary) bat. If he posts another ~.350 wOBA season, I’d be hesitant to give him much more than a Manny Machado deal. Anything beyond 10 years for a 1B is wild.
You’re not understanding the years. He’s not going to be worth anything after age 36, meaning teams this offseasons would much, much rather sign him to 14/$400m than to 10/$400m.
Lower annual payments, smaller LT hit, and inflation cuts the cost of the money teams will pay in years 11, 12, 13, and 14.
I’m sure teams would love to get four years of control for free and tamp down on the CBT hit, but I don’t think Guerrero’s camp would let that sneak through unnoticed. IMO it’d have to be something like 10/375 vs. 14/450+.. then, yeah, I agree with you on the overall shape of the deal.
That seems like a very realistic deal for a “large” 1B that has been very inconsistent at the plate so far in his career. If he has a monster 2025, maybe 10/360 instead of 11/355.
I could see 10/400 if he shows another .400 wOBA season. He’s young and durable even if he has nowhere to fall defensively.
I don’t think he’s worth $400 million. Nevermind $1 over that.
A rare win for Shapiro and Atkins. They did the right thing and walked away from the table.
No they didn’t. They should have traded him at last years deadline and gotten A haul for him.
Let’s assume 599 million is his ask. It’s likely under that, but maybe it’s that. Over 15 years he’s asking for less than 40M per year. Honestly, I do it if that’s the case.
You’re paying him something like 60m a year for the years he’s actually going to be on the field and giving you something other than the death throes of Miguel Cabrera’s career. You’re just spreading out the cost.
599?
I would not be terrible surprised if I wake up one morning
to “Breaking News” :
Major League Baseball and multiple MLB teams
have filed for bankruptcy.
With these kind of escalating ticket prices and outrageous contract numbers for individual players, something has got to give sooner or later.
These contract numbers for individual players, team payrolls,
escalating ticket prices for fans that price families out of attending games live
MLB is killing the geese that laid the golden eggs so to speak.
Owners pay big bucks because taxpayers (mostly) pay for the stadiums. This is a ripoff.
He’ll get a contract like Pete Alonso’s. Juan Soto only got insanely overpaid because the highest bidders were interested.
There was only one bidder for Soto. He is the biggest heist of Scott Boras’ career.
A+ troll job. I swear you’re trolling yourself.
Agents drooling at the mouth lol
I might be wrong but I’m not lying, Arte is going to pull the trigger
He will be the Yankees. Hal change facial hair policy for him i guess…?
Good, I would love to see the Yankees stuck with another anchor contract.
So, $599M?
$599,999,000.
Poor baby. Might not be able to afford to eat!
They need it for their family. I love when players say they love the schools, of the minor league system or some other nonsense. Soto would have played anywhere as to whoever was the highest bidder. Some players say how they are open to 31 other teams. They know thats a lie.
Heavily dependent…
Excellent writing skills to close out this article.
How would you suggest it should be written ??
Vladdy really only turned it on during the last 4 months of the season. He was lackluster in April; May. The Blue Jays finished with 74 wins. They could finish with 74 wins without Vladdy as well and not have to pay him that exuberant salary.
Actually my man is looking pretty svelte in the accompanying photo for this post…wonder if that illustrious figure is something that can be maintained thru the life of a 15 year contract.
14 or 15 yrs from now, the back half of the contract will feel like Ryan Howard circa 2012-16. he made $25MM (2012-16 dollars) to be a below league average hitter with little other value other than being effectively their mascot.
Jays could have extended Vlad for $350 million a couple years ago. No leadership in Toronto.
They’re smart for not doing it unless it was for less than 10 years.
Good Bye Vladdy it’s been fun watching you . But, you are lazy, and cannot run the bases…You are Not worth what you think you are,,,
When You leave take shapiro and his lackie with you !!
I’m sorry but term AND cost are beyond what he’s worth IMO. 10x$400m is reasonable considering what kind of risk it is – see trout, rendon and especially prince fielder… And MLB needs to do something like the NHL, which limits contract agreements to 8 years maximum thus saving owners from themselves.
I would never give a 10+ year long term deal to a 1B/DH I don’t care who the player is or how old he is in free agency.
This locks up your two offensive spots for much too long and hamstrings future roster construction.
The insane Soto contract has created expectations that will not be met. Players like Vlad and Tucker seem to now be thinking $500-650MM deals, acknowledging they’re not quite Soto, but wanting huge, huge paydays that they’re likely not going to get at those levels.
The NY-NY dynamic with the Yankees wanting to keep Soto who they traded for and who got them to the World Series, and Cohen needing to make a statement, led to conditions that blew away Ohtani’s $460MM present day value deal to one for Soto that will eventually be over $800MM. Even a decade from now, no player will be touching those numbers, especially with the cable and RSN model dying and Cohen and the Dodgers escalating pay to the point where a significant lockout is being predicted.
If the Jays discussed a deal starting with a 4, Vlad should have taken it. The NY teams are not going to have the emotional investment in Vlad or Tucker they had in Soto, which means their markets will be capped in ways that Soto was not.
@LordD99
Yankees aren’t interested in Vlad Jr. They have their sights set on an affordable Munetaka Murakami in 2026 for 1B.
If Yanks disappoint this year like missing playoffs or go out in 1st round …… they will be getting Tucker or Vlad Jr. You can bank that.
May still happen even w a good seasons.
Dude. You’re not getting $600MM.
All he needs is one dumb owner.Once I saw Turner and Seager get 300m I knew Soto could get 700. Vlad needs to get the Mets and Yankees into the bidding and tell each one about dark horse teams not mentioned.
If he gets $300MM, he should be very happy.
Obviously an excellent hitter, but nothing else.
He is definitely not taking 300. Just like I knew Soto wasnt taking small money like 500 mm. He will find a way to screw over some dumb owner.
RIP to whatever franchise gives him that.
You may well be right but that’s waaaaaaay too much
He should be happy w 14 years and 500 million if he must have 14
Personally I wouldn’t give him more then 8 for 350ish but he won’t accept it
I’m sorry, was he expecting the Jays FO to be over what Soto got? I’d have to see what Toronto offered but if it was over 400 million, it was a fair offer. It makes no sense for Vladdy to sign it either, the team’s FO is essentially the basement for what you can look for in FA. I’d trade him and help the farm system, the Jays-even with Vladdy-are probably 4th in that division at best. I’d put the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles all easily ahead of them and Tampa always seems to glue and duct tape together a contender. Why pay big money to not contend?
So they use the Soto comp but not the Pete Alonso which was much lower and the same position? Good player but the back end of that contract will be dead money like Miguel Cabrera. 400-450 max
Can someone tell me what evidence they have that he ever intended on extending or staying with Toronto. When asked, what was he supposed to say? “No, I want out and I look forward to being booed and hated by Toronto fans and my teammates for the next year or two’?
I don’t believe he ever intended, from the day he signed his first contract, to stay with Toronto. He knew he’d never get the superstar treatment and recognition in Toronto, and then there’s those pesky taxes, and lousy front office. Hiring clowns as managers, instead of spending the money required to get a top-notch, experienced manager didn’t help. Toronto has always gone for bargain basement nobodies as managers.
He has no more interest in being a Blue Jay than Soto or Alonso or Ohtani or Sasaki or Chapman or Bellinger or even Roger Clemens. I could go on and on for pages with names of players who refused to play here.
I like Vlad but this just seems like a contract the Angels will ultimately give and regret halfway in.
If the Angels only start regretting a deal halfway through it, that’s an improvement.
600 million for 5 years
José Ramírez took a hometown discount signing a 160mill contract. Wanted to stay with the same team his entire career and was comfortable he said. He plays a much harder position at third base. Vlad is asking far too much for comfort. Yes hes a good player but im comfortable letting him walk.
There are only a small handful of teams willing to offer a contract in that realm.. Who are realistic suitors when he hits FA?
Yankees and Mets? Maybe SF?
Fwar/162
Soto 6.3
Vlad 4.3
At same rate he should get a bit over 500
I thought Luka made fat shaming not cool again. Guess that didn’t last long… sad!
I believe in paying for what a player is worth, with a concession of an extra few million per year or 1 or 2 years tacked on to seal the deal in a competitive market with virtually identical offers.
That said- even at “just” 27 years old his first year of free agency (that “just” is flexible around here) I wouldn’t trust his body to hold up beyond about 30 or 31 and I’d plan for him to be washed up by 32 or 33- whether that means like, medically retired or DFA’d and released or it means that he’s healthy enough to stick around, but he’s useless and the team is trying to find places to hide him and get some value out of him at the same time…
So to me that would indicate a 6 year deal- with that 6th year tacked on.
6 years/$240M would be my highest offer to Vladdy, Jr.- potentially with like, silver slugger/MVP etc. escalators that could take it to 6 years/$270M or something and then maybe an option of some kind that could make it 7 years/$283.5M to 7 years/$313.5M or something…. but beyond that I just don’t trust him and I’d want him signing on a year to year basis- one year he’s worth $50M, the next year he’s worth $5M, so you pay him accordingly throughout his 30’s.
I think that’d be the best approach to anybody signing Vladdy, Jr.
Chunky Dudes in their twenties tend to be Fat Boys in their thirties. Hard PASS if I’m the GM.
A 6- or 7-year deal with an option year would be better for any team that signs him. His dad started flaming out in his early 30s and was done by his mid 30s. He may not repeat his dad’s decline, but why risk it and pay $40 million plus a year for a declining player? There are always new and younger players that would be worth 40 million then. A lot of high salary players got injured like Rendon or were only part time players at 40 and they hindered that team from being able to compete due to their high salary. The Yankees can afford to pay that, but they have Stanton performing less than what he used to do or just injured. Another team doesn’t have the resources to have someone like Stanton, so they need to think Stanton when they sign Vlad.
Assuming he has another 5 or 6 bWAR season in 2025, he’ll get something close to 600M. If not from Toronto, then surely from someone else.
Interesting – sounds like a guy that wants to sign in March – there are maybe 3-4 teams that can pay and much less that will actually pull the trigger. 10/350 would be the max I would do.
I would love for the Tigers to get involved next offseason on Guerrero but I truly think the end of Miguel Cabrera’s contract will scare them off. They have similar builds and Miggy was paid more for what he had done rather than what he was going to do. The last 3 1/2 years of that deal was a complete albatross. I think I’d rather have them go after Tucker in free agency.
They have to make to the WS for it to have any real value.
I can honestly say mine always was too.
To be fair Vlad supplemented his inquiry with, “asking for a friend”
Both Othani and Soto are exceptionally great ball players. I don’t think it should impact the salaries of great players like Vlad Jr., Tucker, Judge, etc.. Under $500,000 sounds more reasonable to me.