The Blue Jays came up short on most (but not all) of their many pursuits of star free agents this winter, and the ship may have already sailed on the team's efforts to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension. Amidst all the pessimism surrounding the Jays' future, the team did make some notable moves to try and reload the roster after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
Major League Signings
- Anthony Santander, OF: Five years, $92.5MM (includes buyout of $15MM club option for 2030; opt-out after 2027 season, but Blue Jays can void opt-out by guaranteeing 2030 option for $17.5MM salary, and adding $2.5MM to 2028 and 2029 salaries; $61.75MM of Santander's deal is deferred)
- Jeff Hoffman, RP: Three years, $33MM
- Max Scherzer, SP: One year, $15.5MM
- Yimi Garcia, RP: Two years, $15MM
- Dillon Tate, RP: One-year split contract, $1.4MM (prorated over Tate's time on the active roster)
- Josh Walker, RP: One year split contract, $760K (prorated over Walker's time on active roster)
2025 spending: $59MM (not counting Tate/Walker)
Total spending: $156MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades & Claims
- Acquired 2B Andres Gimenez and RP Nick Sandlin from Guardians for 1B Spencer Horwitz and minor league OF Nick Mitchell
- Acquired OF Myles Straw, $3.75MM in cash considerations, and $2MM of international bonus pool money from Guardians for cash considerations or a player to be named later
- Claimed RHP Angel Bastardo from Red Sox in Rule 5 Draft
Notable Minor League Signings
- Ryan Yarbrough, Jacob Barnes, Christian Bethancourt, Richard Lovelady, Eric Lauer, Amir Garrett, Ali Sanchez, Michael Stefanic, Adam Kloffenstein
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Horwitz, Jordan Romano, Genesis Cabrera, Brett de Geus, Luis De Los Santos, Paolo Espino, Brandon Eisert
Toronto hitters combined for only 156 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage in 2024, so a 44-homer bat like Anthony Santander should bring some much-needed thunder to the lineup. The Blue Jays made a hefty $92.5MM investment that Santander can build on the career year that saw him hit .235/.308/.506 over 665 plate appearances for the Orioles, while handily topping his previous high of 33 homers (in 2022).
Santander's overall hitting profile is a concern, as evidenced by the low batting average and OBP. However, Santander still posted an above-average walk rate despite the low on-base number, and his strikeout rate remained above average in 2024 even though chasing pitches has been an issue for his entire career. The switch-hitter is certainly a power-first (if not quite a power-only) type of batter, yet the profile fits for a Jays team lacking in pop and in left-handed hitting balance.
Santander will step right into the lineup as the everyday left fielder, and he'll probably get a decent share of DH time given that his glovework is considered only passable. As defense-focused as the Blue Jays have been over the last couple of years, they continued to move in that direction with a surprising trade for arguably the sport's best defensive second baseman.
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Missed out on a 3B and a DH. This is going to be a long season.
Seems like Varsho may be DHing for a while and Springer will gets lots of AB’s there as well. Myles Straw is actually having a really good spring so maybe that will carry over to the regular season. At 3B, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Orelvis Martinez are all having decent springs and perhaps one of the kids (Barger, Martinez) steps up and claims the job this season
@Rsox
Not much publically available advanced stats for minor leagues but for context, Martinez has over 50 errors in less than 200 games at AAA. That’s a DH’s glove.
Who they miss out on at 3b?
Bregman
You want to drastically beat the red sox contract to bribe a under 800 ops 30 year old to play for a team he doesn’t want to play for? Why you hate Toronto so much? What they do to you?
@YourDreamGM
Who said that they would have to “drastically” beat the Red Sox offer? Who said he didn’t want to play for the Jays?
You’re making a lot of assumptions.
You’re right. He may want to live in another country, pay more taxes? I know Boston isn’t cheap but, hit in a much less hitter friendly stadium and have much worse odds of winning.
@YourDreamGM
Ugh. The taxes thing is such a red herring. People that make that kind of money have a team of accountants looking at ways to minimize paying taxes. They just don’t show up to the local H&R Block with a T4 the Jays gave him.
Here’s what I used to do when I contracted. Incorporate! 22% tax rate! Then I paid myself under the lowest tax rate. The complicated part was RRSP splitting.
He really needs to worry about taxes then. He’s already throwing $ away having a agent. Team of accounts as well yikes. As an employee there is so only so much you can do about taxes.
Its tough to “miss out” on the DH. Lots of teams cycle players thru there.
As for 3B, Clement put up a 3.4 WAR in a little less than a season. Thats a decent base to work from. And they have Wagner, Orelvis, Barger to develop there. I think Wagner has a real chance. He can hit and apparently has a pretty good arm
To me the biggest fail of Atkins is his inability to keep things in house (they are in every fricken rumour) and the lousy farm system.
@Ducey
Wagner doesn’t have the arm for 3B (a 40 or 45 on his 20/80). While his Hit tool is above MLB grade, his Power tool is below MLB grade. Not ideal for a 3B but best suited for a PH. Martinez just can’t field (see reply to Rsox). Add to that he has a 40% wiff rate on bendy pitches. He’s not going to see a fastball if he’s on the 26.
Most of Clement’s WAR was with the glove. By wRC+ he was average to below average. Great for a utility player, as a starter, not so much to meh.
I like Barger the best, but he’s a huge gamble for a team with playoff aspirations.
they can give this team one more shot at a title.at worst, if it doesnt work by midseason.then trade and sell everyone worth value at the trade deadline and have a fire sale.until then,see how it goes.
@slimray
“they can give this team one more shot at a title.at worst”. PECOTA has them winning 84/85 games. That gives them a shot at getting a wildcard spot, at best.
Very much a C-grade offsets.
Still didnt get another bat…not sure what they are doing.
Guerrero and Bichette will both be gone after this season (if not before) and Kirk, Varsho, and Kevin Gausman will be gone after next. They will be unrecognizable after 2026. That’s a lot of freed up payroll and a lot of turnover.
@RotiniRick
If there’s a serious injury to Gausman, Berrios, or Bassett I’d expect the Jays to be taking calls from other teams.
I’d be surprised if at least one of Varsho or Kirk weren’t extended by then, unless they decide to go full scale rebuild.
Could easily see it Jdgoat. They have the money. It will be interesting to see which way they go.
Mr. Polishek writes well. But here he flails at a pitch in the dirt:
“Santander’s overall hitting profile is a concern, as evidenced by the low batting average and OBP. However, Santander still posted an above-average walk rate despite the low on-base number…”
This is a contorted way to say, “His batting average is pretty bad”, which we knew already.
For 15 year deal that Vlad wants, they were off by $50 million. $3.33 mil a season. That’s a below-average backup catcher. A 7th inning reliever. For 15 seasons (the first 5 of those 15 seasons before the price goes up). Atkins has to go.
Offensive Production:
The lack of significant offensive additions is a major concern. The team’s reliance on internal improvement is risky.
Grade: C-
Pitching Staff:
The Blue Jays’ pitching staff is generally solid, but the bullpen still has some question marks. The rotation depth is also a concern.
Grade: B
Roster Flexibility:
They have made some moves to increase roster flexibility, which is a positive.
Grade: B
Core Player Retention:
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract situation is a major factor. Until a contract is signed, there is a lot of uncertainty.
Grade: C+
Overall Evaluation:
With a more critical assessment of the offensive production, the overall grade for the Blue Jays’ offseason should be adjusted.
Overall Grade: C-
A realistic win projection for the Blue Jays would be in the 74-80 win range.
C
The only 5+ year extensions Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have consummated since coming to Toronto are Randal Grichuk (5 yrs/$53M) and José Berríos (7 yrs/$131M, but he can opt out of the final two years after 2026). They’ve signed free agents like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Anthony Santander, but always came up short with generational players Ohtani, Soto, Burnes, Sasaki, Guerrero Jr., and Bichette.
Shapiro and Atkins have yet to win an AL East division title or even a playoff game with Vlad and Bo, Meanwhile their predecessor, Alex Anthopoulos, has a World Series championship and six NL East division titles in Atlanta. Their successors in Cleveland, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, have won the AL Central 5 times since Shapiro and Atkins left, including winning 20 playoff games since 2016.