Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers were voted as the most likely AL West winner. Next up is a look at the AL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.
Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
The Guardians surprised the baseball world by not only storming back to the top of the AL Central in Stephen Vogt’s first year replacing Terry Francona as manager in Cleveland, but by pushing past the Astros to secure a playoff bye alongside the Yankees. Though the club ultimately fell to New York in the ALCS, their strong showing inspired plenty of optimism about the club’s future. The offseason saw some major changes come to the organization as Andres Gimenez departed the club in a series of moves that ultimately brought back righty Luis Ortiz. The addition of Ortiz should help bolster a rotation that was the club’s clear weakness last year, as should getting more out of Shane Bieber after he returned to the club in free agency over the offseason.
Aside from that stronger rotation mix and the aforementioned loss of Gimenez, the 2025 Guardians don’t look much different than the 2024 club. Josh Naylor departed via trade but was swiftly replaced with Carlos Santana in his third stint with the club, and the club swapped Tyler Freeman for Nolan Jones just before Opening Day. Meanwhile, Jakob Junis and Paul Sewald add depth to a bullpen that was already baseball’s best last season. A stronger rotation mix should help the Guardians stay at the top of the AL Central this year, though they’ll need strong performances from players like Jones, Brayan Rocchio, and Kyle Manzardo in order to match last year’s output in the lineup without Naylor’s bat and Gimenez’s glove in the fold.
Kansas City Royals (86-76)
After making it back to the playoffs for the first time since their World Series championship in 2015, the Royals stayed busy in the offseason. They retained their strong front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha in the rotation while trading fourth starter Brady Singer to the Reds to land Jonathan India, who has split time between left field and third base for the club so far this year. Meanwhile, the Royals made a splash at the back of their bullpen by signing closer Carlos Estevez to handle the ninth inning, bolstering a relief group that was a big source of frustration last year. Overall, the pitching staff seems to be in an even better place than 2024 with Singer set to be replaced in the rotation by some combination of Kris Bubic, who excelled in a short stint with the bullpen last year, the eventual return of Kyle Wright from the injured list.
Less certain is how the club will stack up on offense. India was the club’s only major addition to the lineup, though swinging a trade for Mark Canha just before Opening Day should raise the floor offensively and bringing in Cavan Biggio could also improve the club’s depth. India and Canha should help to balance out a lineup that was far too reliant on Bobby Witt Jr. last year. Even so, the club will either need Witt to repeat his otherworldly production or significant steps forward from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Franco if they’re going to be even an average offense in 2025, given that last year’s club managed a wRC+ of just 96. Will the club’s modest improvements be enough to take control of the Central?
Detroit Tigers (86-76)
As is a theme throughout the AL Central, the Tigers were relatively quiet this winter. The lineup is largely unchanged from last year, with second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot standing as the club’s only additions of significance. The duo’s right-handed bats should help to balance out a Tigers lineup that leans heavily to the left, but the more significant additions to the Tigers this year are in the rotation. The return of Jack Flaherty after the club traded him to the Dodgers over the summer should give the club an impressive prospective playoff rotation, with Flaherty joining reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, 2024 breakout righty Reese Olson, and perhaps top prospect Jackson Jobe to make what could rival the Royals for the division’s best rotation. Alex Cobb, meanwhile, should add some veteran depth to the rotation and has been extremely effective when healthy in recent years.
Impressive as the rotation mix might be, the Tigers’ lackluster offensive additions mean a lot will need to go right for the club in the lineup if they’re going to make it back to October. Strong, healthy seasons from Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter will be a must, and steps forward from youngsters like Colt Keith and the ever-streaky Spencer Torkelson would go a long way to getting the club back to the postseason. As for the club’s bullpen, little changed outside of the addition of right-hander Tommy Kahnle, so the club will once again need strong performances from pieces like Tyler Holton and Will Vest in 2025. Will all of that be enough to overcome the Royals and Guardians in 2025?
Minnesota Twins (82-80)
After a disappointing season where the club appeared poised to make the postseason before collapsing in dramatic fashion down the stretch, the Twins are more or less running back the same club they put forward in 2024. Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, and Caleb Thielbar all departed the club with reasonable facsimiles of their expected production entering the door in their place when the club signed Ty France, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe. Aside from that trio of modest additions to replace outgoing free agents, the Twins did very little to augment the club this winter. That’s not to say another weak season should be expected, however. On paper, the Twins have long been the most talented club in the AL Central and that figures to once again be the case in 2025.
Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton all have star potential when healthy, though Lewis has already opened the season on the injured list. Brooks Lee (also on the IL) and Matt Wallner provide plenty of upside to the club’s lineup, and steady contributors like Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should help make for a strong offensive nucleus. The rotation, meanwhile, has a solid front three in the form of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober to go along with a handful of interesting back-end options like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax make for a frightening combo at the back of the bullpen, leaving the club without any clear holes. With that being said, health and consistency have always been difficult to come by in Minnesota despite a deep and talented group of players. Will they be able to put it all together in 2025?
Chicago White Sox (41-121)
After the worst season in MLB history, the White Sox did little to inspire optimism about the 2025 season. Arguably, the club is weaker on paper than it was last year after losing Erick Fedde at the trade deadline and Garrett Crochet over the offseason. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery should arrive sometime this year to pick up the slack, and a fully healthy and productive season from Luis Robert Jr. would go a long way to getting the White Sox away from that 120-loss threshold. Even with those potential upsides, however, it would be perhaps the most shocking turnaround in baseball history if this club managed to bring a division title back to the south side of Chicago in 2025.
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The offseason didn’t see any status-quo-altering changes in the AL Central. While the three postseason clubs from last year all made at least some modest additions, the story of the division is not all that dissimilar from 2025. After a 92-win season in 2025, the Guardians’ pitching additions seem likely to be enough to make them a potential favorite as long as Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan continue to play up to lofty expectations, though the additions Detroit and Kansas City made can’t be ignored. The Twins lurk in the background, meanwhile, even after a quiet offseason thanks to their strong in-house group of talent. With four of the division’s five clubs likely to be in the mix for the AL Central crown once again, who do you think is most likely to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:
I picked Cleveland, they always churn out pitchers and get them to be productive MLB arms.
Funny that more people are picking the White Sox to win the division than the Twins!
“Weird ass Minnesota Twins” – C.C. Sabathia
Again, Nobody wasn’t in the choices so I didn’t vote.
Remind you, The A.L. Central was the 2nd best division in all of baseball in 2024
Easily top 3 from start to finish.
by what standards?
Easy to have a winning record in a division with the White Sox.
This is a maybe the tightest race in both leagues. 4 teams with legitimate shots at winning the division. I could have picked any of them and had a decent argument.
This statement would have been accurate a few years ago. They have moved away from the weighted games in the divisions and are now playing every team equally.
Oh wow that is good for all the other teams and bad for travel time. I wouldn’t be surprised if I had learned that in the comment section before and just forgotten it. So then my statement should read: “How did any team in the AL have a losing record with the White Sox in the league?”
At this moment there are twice as many votes for the White Sox than the Twins, and they’ve pulled ahead of the Guardians.
Just want all those Chicago fans to remember this high point in fan fervor when things get dark later this summer.
Trust me, we’re enjoying the high while it lasts! We know this team is going to go on a 15-game losing streak, more than once…
Don’t forget, currently the white Sox are tied for 1st in the al central
For what it’s worth the odds started at 250 to 1, and have dropped down to 200 to 1
I’d assume that most White Sox fans, like me, are just trolling with our vote.
Real Kansas City Baseball Club
Also like the Royals, Kyle Wright makes his return this season and gives the Royals another nice option in the rotation. Jac Caglione gets the call up and hits a ton.
Fake Madrid
Colson Montgomery. Like Colas, another can’t miss prospect who will miss big time. He was the heir apparent to TA, who left three seasons ago.
Tigers by 5 games. KC in 2nd and also making the playoffs. TB and Baltimore make it in the east and Houston and Texas in the west.
I was going to go KC, then switched to DET. Close vote! Good luck Bummer, it’d be nice to meet for the Piece of Metal!
It is hard to vote against Cleveland because they are so consistent but KC and Detroit seem more exciting. I voted Tigers but it could have gone another way if my whim was different.
Like last year it should be a close 4 way race.
Royals have currently the 2nd best player in the American League and soon to be the best for a decade+ after Judge gets too old. I’m banking on them from now until 2030 to win that poverty division.
Witt is not the best after judge. Skubal, Henderson, Greene,Ramirez, trout and a couple more better
Greene as in Riley Greene? In 3 season, Greene has 7 fWAR. Witt had 10 last year alone and has 18 in 3 years. Its higher than than everyone else’s in that stretch, even Jram.
Skubal needs more of a track record before annointing him the best SP in the AL, let alone all of MLB and a top 10 player. Greene isn’t even a top 50 player. Trout doesn’t stay healthy enough at this point to be toward the top and he’s not even as productive as Witt these days. You named some guys who aren’t even close.
His list is bang on, however Trout is only applicable if he plays a full year. Greene is a dark horse MVP candidate and Skubal just won a Triple Crown so hard to argue with that. Witt is a greatbplayer though and I would rate him #1 on thst list.
It isn’t at all hard to argue. In fact, it’s easy: not one of those players are better than Witt in the present. Trout hasn’t had an elite (or healthy) season since 2022. Mentioning Greene as a dark horse MVP candidate is a great way of explaining that he’s not as good as Witt, considering Witt is way past dark horse status and is simply one of the frontrunners for the award. Skubal, fine; I disagree, but I see why some would put him up there.
I agree Witt is second right now. Ibalso agree all those guts mentioned could be second after 162 games are played this year.
That’s fair and I agree with that take–anything can happen and those are obviously talented players–but that also means you agree that harrisstan’s comment is off since he said all those players are currently better than Witt.
I’m a Tigers fan, but are you nuts, Harris?! Witt is probably slightly ahead of Judge and Ramirez, imo. Trout misses too much time to be considered. Greene does too, but he doesn’t have any elite numbers even when healthy, unfortunately. Oh, and by the way, Skubal has been a solid #3 in his first two starts. Mize looks like he might FINALLY break out this season if he can stay healthy.
How did that work out for Trout and Ohtani?
Yall sleep on the Twins.
They will win the central, mark me.
They will win at being weird ass
Whatever CC
I’m curious, what do you like about the Twins?
They have good depth and some superstar potential (Buck, Correa, Lewis). A top notch bullpen. Hopefully this is just a slow start…
Barrison Hader
Also Zebidiah “The Holy son” Matthews
Twinkies prospects are always just that. No real player development over there. Buxton has amazing spurts but can’t stay healthy and even if he did, I doubt he’s capable of putting a full season together. Team of chokers.
I don’t see what people (projections mostly) see in them. Their rotation is decent, but nothing else stands out. Considering their main 3 are fragile af. I guess they’re lucky they reside in the division they do because the top 4 all seem to be pretty evenly matched on paper. But to say they’re above the rest in talent……pfff. Witt, Skubal and Ramirez are more talented than their entire team by themselves
It’s going to be a fun season. Detroit has 4 hitters that could start out, and they are hitting pretty good. The pitching is still feeling its way, but they look pretty good.
Sweeny has took command of short, and Tork is doing well at first. Kreidler looks good, and the pick up of Margot looks great too. Yes the owner is still getting ripped with Cobb, Torres, and Baez contracts, but the team looks good despite that.
Can they come back in the 9th today ? We all hope so. As guys return in a month or more, then some will go down or if they are playing good, then rehabbing may go the full term. GO TIGERS !!!!!!
Looks like Mize might finally have a breakout season, health permitting. They should only have one loss (7-3 @LA). They blew the 5-4, 8-5 (giving up 5 in the 10th) and last nights 3-2 game where they had the bases loaded and 1 out in the 9th and couldn’t do anything. Hopefully they can put it together.
This division could end up in a 4 way tie, sorry White Six, though they will improve and might not lose 100.
They’re all tied at 2-4 after todays games
It’d be kinda cool to have a five-way playoff for the Division title!
They can all meet up in Chicago and do a round robin
I bought a $10 ticket for the Sox to win the division. I don’t think they will, but I would have been stupid to pass over the $1200 payoff if they do.
You’re right in that it’s not a big loss if/when you lose, but the only way Chicago will take all the necessary steps forward is if the other teams planes take a nose dive and those franchises have to play out the season with their minor leaguers. Heck, even then it’d be tough. Especially with Detroit’s minor leaguers being in the top 3 and #1 by some.
Feel better now?
serious underestimate of Twins here.
But they’re overestimated everywhere else. Their 3 main guys are fragile af and the other 3 contenders all have a superstar. It could be that the majority of the participants here are baseball educated and don’t project dream seasons for injury prone guys like most projection sites do, apparently.
Pitching wins a lot of games, and Detroit has got it. Skubal is a true ace, one of the best in the game. Flaherty excellent, Mize looks like he could finally be incredible, and Jobe should be just fine. The hits will come.
Hope it’s the Guardians and Vogt
The AL Central is still playing Moneyball, while the rest of MLB has already moved to Post-Moneyball. The team that stops playing for the regular season and starts optimizing for October will break away from the pack.
I pick Detroit.
You think KC is playing moneyball? That’s pretty funny.
If the season ended today, everybody. All 2-4.
After the April 2 games, all five AL Central teams were tied for first place in the division…with a 2-4 record. Yeesh.
As a White Sox fan, I think it’s ludicrous that anyone is picking them, save out of irony or as a joke. They have some intriguing young prospects in Schultz, Smith, Teel, Quero, Braden Montgomery, and Wolkow if he can get his K-rate in line. Also have enough starting pitching to at least be better overall than last year, even if nobody has the high-end performance Crochet gave. That said, there’s still almost no offense, defense, or bullpen. Aspiration this year is more realistically to lose fewer than 110 than to take the division. I believe they’ll be better than last year, but they are so far from all four teams above them.
None of the teams in the ALC are much good. I’m choosing KCR because I like the overall pitching. The OF is terrible, however.
Everyone will knock each other out and the White Sox will win the division
”Impressive as the rotation mix might be” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out to begin the sentence. It’s not optional! Grammar is not optional when you’re being paid to write.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence, not come in the middle between commas. How does a writer get this correct twice in an article but then mess it up three times? Think of a new word. And how does an editor miss this?