2025 has been a good time to be a Giants fan so far. Buster Posey’s turn at the helm of baseball operations has helped push the club to a solid 31-25 start, putting them just one game back of the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card spot and three games back of the Dodgers for the NL West crown. While San Francisco would surely prefer to be in playoff position right now, it’s been a very encouraging start for a club that was projected by Fangraphs for an 81-81 record and a 28.5% chance of making the postseason prior to the start of the 2025 campaign. Strong as the club’s start has been, however, that’s been almost entirely without contribution from their marquee free agent signing of the 2024-25 offseason.
It’s been a rough first year in San Francisco for Willy Adames, to put it mildly. Long viewed as an excellent two-way shortstop, Adames has yet to post on either side of the ball for the Giants. Advanced defensive metrics are notoriously finicky and take quite a long time to stabilize, but Adames’s -3 Outs Above Average and -2 Fielding Run Value are both worrying figures for a player who was a Gold Glove candidate as recently as 2023, while his -8 DRS this year stands dead last among all qualifying shortstops. Errors are hardly the best way to measure defensive value, but only Manny Machado and Elly De La Cruz have committed more of them in 2025. No matter how you slice it, Adames has started his stay in the Bay Area off with lackluster defense.
Perhaps that would be easy enough to look past if Adames was putting up strong numbers at the plate. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. He’s hitting just .208/.288/.333 with a wRC+ of 77. His 26.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate aren’t out of the ordinary relative to his career numbers, but they are the worst figures he’s posted in both categories since 2022. The primary red flag in Adames’s profile this year is his vanishing power, however. After averaging 28 homers a season from 2021 to 2024, the shortstop has hit just five in his first 56 games as a Giant.
At least some of that can be blamed on his ballpark, and Statcast suggests that Adames would have as many as eight homers if he played all of his games at a friendlier ballpark like Dodger Stadium. Park factors aren’t the only thing to blame for Adames’s power-outage, however. While his barrel rate of 11% is more or less in line with what he’s done throughout his career, Adames is pulling the ball less often than he ever did with the Brewers and hitting the ball softly more frequently than ever before. The fact that Adames has stopped pulling the ball as much and is hitting it the other way more is surely a big reason for his drop in power, particularly combined with the aforementioned unforgiving park factors at Oracle Park, which are especially harsh on right-handed oppo hitters.
That leaves Adames with an altered batted ball profile that works in tandem with his new environment to create some of the worst results of his career. That means his struggles aren’t likely to end so long as he keeps going the other way, but the good news is that Adames can get back to the approach he demonstrated in 2023 and ’24, when he pulled 45.8% of his batted balls and went the other way just 19.5% of the time, it’s not hard to imagine his results improving considerably. While it may be too late in the season at this point to expect Adames to match his 119 wRC+ from last year, getting back up around league average or even matching the 107 wRC+ he posted over the last four years could be a much more realistic target.
How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Adames’s season will play out from here? Will he be able to make the adjustments necessary to hit well in Oracle Park and turn his season around, or will he remain a below-average hitter this season? Have your say in the poll below:
Was a horrible contract for the Giants the minute he signed it.
Horrible ??? Who else was going to play Shortstop at the major league level ?
I think I would have put fitz @ SS and signed kim for later in the season. I personally couldn’t care less about the money but don’t like the cost of the QO on adames, though it is hard to say how the clubhouse would feel if he wasn’t signed
Kim still has yet to play. He’s projected to return mid to late June, effectively half the season. I think Adames/Fitz for a full season at SS/2B is better than Fitz/Schmitt, Wisely, Koss for half, with Kim the second half. Kim will probably not hit the ground running after being out for so long, and may need to be slowed played.
Plus, Fitz strikes out too much. Only Bailey, and Adames strike out more often, and the difference between Fitz and Adames is very slight. Adames strikes out once per every 3.97 PA, and Fitz per every 3.81 PA.
Old friend Hal Lanier won’t be 83 until July. He could be a stopgap.
I would be surprised if he doesn’t finish the year with good stats.
The poll is worded weirdly. I would’ve checked a box that said “he’ll finish the year above-average, but post near-average results overall”
But the only options, at least by how I interpret it, are finish well above average or well below.
At least Deedsy linked the right player this time. But all of these polls seem like variations on the same theme.
career numbers 1st half are much lower than 2nd half.
Plus, new team, new home park, and probably pressing at bit to contribute.
I absolutely agree Jean. I think he’s pressing even more than a bit. It has been a little alarming that he hasn’t been hitting the ball hard though. I think he’ll be fine after acclimating some more. His defense is a bigger worry to me. I didn’t expect a gold glover by any means but I find myself holding my breath a bit when the ball’s hit his way. Other than maybe last year I always hoped the ball was hit to SS(Brandon Crawford) for many years.
I feel like I’ve seen him hit at least 4-5 rockets to LF that would have been HR but were foul by a a few feet. Of course, I’ve also seen him swing at sliders for strike three that were outside by more than a foot even more times.
I’m not sure I’d ever sign a SS with a slower sprint speed than Jake Burger.
He just looks lost. Maybe he’ll end up like another Tiger prospect who went on to much better things, Eugenio Suarez. Ultra hot then ultra cold.
Dude hit .217 in 2023. Overpaid after one good year
🤣🤣🤣 someone one that only watched baseball for 2 years
someone one
???
lol sure
.217? BA=overrated stat. He was valued at 4,3 bWAR. He didn’t have a great year, but he wasn’t far below league average, 94 OPS+. And he hit 24 HRs, 29 2Bs, and 2 3Bs that year.
He’s a streaky guy, but I’m willing to bet he’s going to finish as an above average hitter.
That’s a $218MM value question
I’m guessing he ends up around a .225 hitter with 20 HRs. Not great..but still above avg for a SS.
Doesn’t he play in a ballpark that’s known for hurting the power of right handed hitters?
His Oracle Park OPS is 170 points higher than on the road (.712 vs. .542). It’s his production in away games that has really disappeared (.278 slugging pct..on the road).
130 plate appearances from each side of the home away split is a really small sample size. Willy hasn’t played more than four games at any stadium outside of San Francisco. Let’s see him get some games in Colorado and Arizona first. Then I’ll put more weight into his home road splits.
If Willy is not hitting for power he’s not a good player. Terrible fit at Oracle Park
20/80 seems about right. 23/91 seem like a solid year if he can get there. The avg is up but goes back n forth, and the hitters around him haven’t hit well. Plus the ballpark on and on and on. Defense needs to tighten up for Sure !!! He’ll be fine. Part of a collective to revive the team which was needed. We have how many more seasons ? Might as well get used to him being around.
Ya, unlike many I’m not thinking it’s a bad signing after 52 games. He’s a great team guy that no stat can show. Plenty of time this season to turn performance around.
Best option at the time, and a great aggressive pursuit by SFG. Pretty much a 50/50 split poll between fans and haters.
I am still happy with the signing. It was needed for a number of reasons including morale. I think we all knew the Giants were going to sign a shortstop. We got a good one who is just struggling at this point. There were many who thought Jung Hoo Lee was a horrible signing too but he has also had to acclimate on a much bigger scale. I like him in the lineup too.
Good point on JHL. He looked like a sunk cost last year, but has been a pleasant surprise.
It’s very interesting to me how the data shows that pulling the ball is much more advantages than going up the middle or the other way. Always seems like hitters are at their best when doing that, but the data suggests pulling the ball.
lollar2112, The problem I have with what was written is that most of the pull data is based on what he did in Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay. Totally different ballparks for Oracle.
do not touch willy. good advice
I think everyone outside of Giants fans knew that was a terrible contract.
The obsession over home runs gets a lot of front offices into trouble.
Geez. Everyone. They were quiet about it.
You got to laugh.
I don’t agree that it was a horrible signing. Way to early to make that call. Now Soto’s contract is looking “horrible”. I don’t think it’s too early for him though. Can’t teach hustle. He’s never had it.
Homeruns win games.
Not when you’re batting .200 and striking out every other at bat.
I’ll take a contact hitter over a home run hitter in the postseason any day of the week.
You haven’t watched the Jay’s then. We needed a Homerun batter in fact more than one. Also when you have a guy like Kirk on base it may take 3 singles to score a run.
Adames & santander 2 good examples of putting up career best#s during a contract year
Teams need to hand out 5,6,7 year deals with more caution
I don’t blame hitters for always turning down the Giants. That home park is a graveyard.
Which to choose from: “The grass isn’t always greener on the other side” or “The grass is always greener over the septic tank”?
Wishing Willy better results, but Oracle Park is not American Family Field.
The grass is brown all the way around.
Power-first player in the modern day Polo Grounds. Not a recipe for success.
I’m that ballpark, Pitching wins championships with some sacrifice with offense. I’ll take the rings for sure, When the fences were even further back than they are now. As for the signing, comes with the territory. He took the money and we made the offer. It’s win win for both. So 20/80 eh. Win a ring with him on team and all will be well. Again with solid pitching and defense – where he definitely needs to be serviceable, Too be determined so far.
Did they give up on Luciano? He was their top prospect for a short while.
Giants are winning without Adames, when he hits they will be all the much better.
bwmiller79, They haven’t given up on Luciano, he’s still only 23. He actually got into more games last season when he was 22 than Heliot Ramos played when he was 22. I think the problem is finding a position for him. They probably have given up on him as an infielder though.
No, I warned against signing this guy. He’s not good and will not get any better with age. This is sunk cost for Posey’s Giants.
Another $182M shot to hell, Posey is doing a great job! Ahahahahaha!
lol at “warned”. My names Old York and I’m on the internet. I’m warning you, Buster Posey…..
Ha ha. Too funny. Maybe next time he’ll listen, Old York.
@foppert3
I’ve been around for over 200 years, I know more about baseball than some random like Buster Posey.
Ha ha. Apparently so !
I’m not sure Buster is panicking just yet. The numbers are below expectation, but the team vibe portion that they bought has been outstanding.
Brewer fan here. Willy never could lay off high fastballs and tailing sliders. Last year was his most productive/clutch season in Milwaukee with a record-tying 13 three-run homers, so regression this year was predictable. His defense — getting to balls and making accurate throws — has been tailing off over time, and he benefited greatly from playing alongside Platinum Glove winner Brice Turang at second base. Hitting the opposite way is new for him..
Well, now he’s playing alongside 2 time platinum glove winner Matt Chapman.
The difference is that Turang covers a hell of a lot more ground than Chapman. The deep hole behind second base belonged to Turang, not Adames.
“…Turang covers a hell of a lot more ground than Chapman.”
Not true. Do some research before making wild claims.
OAA is based mostly on range. Last season Turang had 6 OAA at 2B. Chapman had 11 OAA at 3B. And, it’s simple logic to see that a 3B with a lot of range allows the SS to play more towards the middle of the IF, and cover that deep hole behind 2B.
Not true at all.
I go to a lot of the games. I’m really not looking forward to 7 years of bounced throws to first, and chasing down and away breaking balls. I’m less concerned about whether or not he hits 32 HRs as no one not named Barry pulls that off here anyway. Would just like to see better swing decisions, but that doesn’t seem to be in his makeup. We’ve got 5 yrs until (top int’l signing) Josuar Gonzales shows up at SS, so fan patience is going to be sorely tested on this signing.
No. His defense is bad just like it was last season. His babip is down but only 30 points so he might improve 20 points in batting average. He is hitting the ball as hard as ever, he is just driving more into the ground. 2023 is what I expect from him with the bat and his declining defense points towards a WAR under 2.
He had a 4.3 bWAR in 2023.
2.9 WAR. baseball-reference.com/players/a/adamewi01.shtml?u…
You’re right. I accidentally looked at 2022, not 2023.
His defense has been bad for over a year now, I dont think he’ll ever be a quality defender at SS again. His offensive profile normally doesn’t age well, but I still think he has a couple above average seasons at the plate in him
Think the Giants are going to regret handing out that deal. If Willy isnt a SS, he isnt worth that money, and his next best position is occupied by Chapman.
Going from indoor Milwaukee to one of, if not the hardest place to hit will do that. I’m sure he will rebound in some way and have a great season next year
Yes on the indoor part. He has said that.
I thought it was a bad contract the moment they signed him, and it seems even worse now. He’s simply just not worth the amount of money they gave him.
How does he struggle so badly against lefties? I’ve never seen someone struggle as much against opposite handed pitching
Reverse splits aren’t that unusual. Adames isn’t the first, nor the most extreme. Joc Pederson’s splits are more unusual than Adames’. Adames has an OPS 112 points better against RHPs than LHPs. But Joc has an OPS against LHPs that’s 198 points better than against RHPs.
Not concerned. Dudes got the best attitude I’ve ever seen. It will happen for him.
Unfortunately they have to severely overpay to attract hitters.
How much does the cold of McCovey Cove bother him?
Not sure about the cold, but he has said it’s taking some getting used too.
It’s much colder early and late season in the northeast and places like Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, etc. Plus, it’s not always real cold, just when the marine layer roles in. In day games the weather is usually delightful.
True, but Adames has only played in home stadiums with a roof until this year.
I have never been sold on this guy before. He has had a couple good seasons, but that is it.