Astros Acquire Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa is coming home to play third base.  The Twins have agreed to trade Correa to the Astros, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network says he’ll man the hot corner for Houston.  Pitching prospect Matt Mikulski is going to Minnesota, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Twins are paying down $33MM of the approximate $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s deal.  The trade is now official.

The idea of the Astros bringing Correa back into the fold first surfaced yesterday in a report from Nightengale.  Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic went on to report that the Astros approached the Twins with the concept of bringing back Correa, a favorite of owner Jim Crane.

With $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract through 2028, reporting today suggested that the two clubs were too far apart on dollars to consummate a deal.  However, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, the teams bridged their financial gap, Correa waived his no-trade clause, and the deal was resuscitated.  As Correa told McTaggart, “I let them know there was only one team I would allow that to happen.”

The Astros and Crane have a history of letting star players depart for longer free agent deals elsewhere.  In this case, Correa left after the 2021 season.  Nearly three years later third baseman Alex Bregman turned down the Astros’ overtures and landed in Boston, after the club had already landed his replacement in Isaac Paredes (acquired from the Cubs in part because the Astros knew they couldn’t win the bidding on Kyle Tucker).  Paredes tore his hamstring on July 19th, which may be season-ending.

Jeremy Peña has flourished in Correa’s absence, making his first All-Star team this year after hitting the IL in late June for a fractured rib.  Peña could rejoin the Astros tomorrow in Boston, playing next to his predecessor on the left side of the infield against Bregman and the Red Sox.  The Astros had picked up Ramon Urias from Baltimore last night, a move that paled in comparison to the division-rival Mariners adding Eugenio Suarez.  Now with Correa, Urias will be pushed into a utility role that could include time at second base.

Correa, 31 in September, owns an uninspiring 97 wRC+ in 364 plate appearances this year for the Twins.  His Twins career has been up-and-down in that regard, with a stellar 136 wRC+ in 2022, a down year in ’23, and a career-best 155 mark last year.

Correa played in only 86 games for the Twins in 2024, missing time due to an intercostal strain and plantar fasciitis.  He spent time on the seven-day concussion list in May this year, but has otherwise avoided the IL despite some minor injuries.

Injuries have long been part of the story for Correa, who was drafted first overall by the Astros in 2012.  He played 110 or fewer games in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2024, so he had a four-year run of good health encompassing his multiple free agencies.

Despite his injury history, Correa has been worth 3.7 WAR in seven separate seasons.  He won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015, made his first All-Star team and garnered MVP votes in 2017, made another All-Star team and finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2021, and made a third All-Star game with the Twins last year.  Certainly Correa’s 2017 performance and the Astros’ championship are tarnished by the sign-stealing scandal, but the star players involved have largely been able to move on with minimal effects aside from perhaps extra boos from certain fanbases.

Correa has been a regular on the pages of MLBTR, perhaps beginning with that sign-stealing scandal in late 2019.  Though Correa suffered some reputational damage for cheating at the time, his first run at free agency seemed largely unaffected.  Hewing to their organizational philosophy on long-term contracts, the Astros topped out at a five-year, $160MM offer, even though Correa was heading into his age-27 season.

Though some major free agents such as Corey Seager signed before the 99-day 2021-22 lockout, Correa did not.  Correa switched to the Boras Corporation during the lockout, and “settled” for a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins in March 2022 with opt-out clauses after each season.  After an excellent debut season with the Twins, Correa opted out as expected, but his second run at free agency was anything but easy.

Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in December 2022, which shockingly fell apart after his physical revealed concerns over his right leg.  Correa then agreed to play third base for the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM deal, only to have that deal fall apart for similar reasons.  That led to a January 2023 reunion with the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal, ending one of the wildest free agencies this website has ever seen.

As Rome and Hayes wrote recently, “Though the Twins are enamored with Correa, believing he’s a difference-maker on the field, the team’s financial picture has changed drastically in the 30 months since he signed his six-year deal. The club has been up for sale since October, which is limiting how much the team can spend on players. Correa’s salary represents 25 percent of the Twins’ current $141 million payroll.”

Now, Correa will return to Houston and play a position other than shortstop for the first time in his 11-year MLB career.  He told McTaggart, “We were waiting for a shortstop to come in [with Twins] and now that I get to play third base, it will be great for me at this stage of my career.”  Whether Paredes moves to the right side of the infield next year or becomes offseason trade bait remains to be seen.

Correa is owed $103.4MM through 2028, which would represent a $31.4MM CBT hit for the Astros.  Given the approximate $33MM the Twins are kicking in, we estimate the Astros’ CBT hit to be around $21MM.  Future reporting will surely confirm the figure.  The Astros’ CBT payroll sits just below the $241MM threshold, so this trade easily vaults Houston into second-time tax payor status.  The trade has echoes of one the Astros made two years ago, when they re-acquired Justin Verlander after letting him go to the Mets via free agency.

Known to be seeking a left-handed bat, the Astros nonetheless added Urias and Correa within a short span at the deadline.  But shortly after landing Correa, they finally did get a lefty stick in the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez.  Clearly in go-for-it mode, GM Dana Brown pursued the Padres’ Dylan Cease as well, but that did not come to fruition.

While the Astros have added to their first-place team, the 51-57 Twins have conducted a full-on fire sale.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey traded a whopping 10 players off his active roster in July, including both rentals and controllable players.

This post was originally published at 3:05pm central time.