With the deadline just over a week away, White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. figures to be one of the most talked-about names on the market. Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic report that two clubs “made aggressive attempts” to acquire Robert last week but the Sox held out for a better prospect package. Along similar lines, Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that Robert is in “trade limbo” because the Sox don’t want to move him for “a reduced return.”
The Sox are running out of time to pull the trigger on a Robert trade. He is in the final year of his contract. The Sox hold a $20MM club option for next year with a $2MM buyout. The piece from The Athletic mentions the possibility of the Sox picking up that option since they have almost no payroll obligations, a possibility that Buster Olney of ESPN also mentioned yesterday.
Though it’s true that the Sox have almost no money on their future books, it’s still hard to see them shelling out an extra $18MM on Robert right now. He’s been hurt and/or ineffective for most of the past two years. They’ve already missed a few opportunities to flip him when his value was higher, so it’s probably not wise to kick the can down the road yet again. The option value could look decent if Robert is hot through the end of the season but it’s also possible that he is hurt or slumping again, meaning they would have held him for nothing.
It’s likely that Robert’s appeal on the market is up a bit, at least relative to earlier this year. His overall season is still bad, as he’s sitting on a line of .206/.292/.344. However, he has actually been in a groove for a while now.
Robert sat out a few games in early June. Manager Will Venable said, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, this was to give Robert some time to focus on making adjustments. Though Venable said it would be for two games, Robert missed three, the games on June 3rd, 4th and 5th. Whatever those adjustments were, they seem to have worked. At the time of that breather, Robert had a .177/.266/.286 batting line and 30.8% strikeout rate. Since then, he has hit .267/.347/.467 with a more manageable 25.5% strikeout rate.
That latter line is still in a small sample of work. Robert had a quick stint on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain in there and then there was the All-Star break, so it’s only 102 plate appearances. However, it’s production he’s been capable of in the past. The 123 wRC+ for that stretch is in the same ballpark as the 129 wRC+ he had in his excellent 2023 season.
Even when he was really struggling, he was still providing value. He had a 112 wRC+ against lefties at the end of April and then had a 151 wRC+ versus southpaws in May. He has 25 steals on the year and can run the ball down in center field.
Though it’s been a rough season, there should be some appeal and it’s understandable that some clubs have attempted to get him. He seems to have the floor of a speed-and-defense guy who can fill the short side of a platoon. The ceiling is obviously much higher. FanGraphs credited him with 4.9 wins above replacement in 2023 thanks to his .264/.315/.542 line, defense and speed. He has shown glimpses of that over the past six weeks or so.
Teams will naturally still have some hesitation due to his injuries and slumps, but few available players have Robert’s upside. The market could also feature center fielders such as Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader and Alek Thomas. Mullins had a great April but has been in a slump since then. Bader is having a nice season but is four years older than Robert, has a checkered injury history of his own and has never had the same ceiling. Thomas is a great fielder but a subpar hitter.
The Sox are reportedly willing to include cash in a Robert deal in order to improve the prospect return. He is making $15MM this year, which will leave about $5MM left to pay out at the deadline. That will naturally appeal to clubs with tight budgets. Robert hasn’t been connected to any specific teams yet but reportedly had eight teams on the phone earlier this month. As mentioned earlier, a couple made recent pushes. Teams like the Royals, Guardians, Mets, Phillies, Tigers and Angels are some of the contenders who could use center field upgrades.
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images
If they are still sticking to that, the White Sox will be stuck with him.
Getz dropped the ball should have traded him two offseasons ago when the team was already torn down. He probably didn’t like the offers, but now he’s got egg on his face…
“but the Sox held out for a better prospect package” – lol, what?
Sounds like the Sox are feeding the rumours market here. Journalists eager to step in to write some clickbait about a player no team actually needs nor wants.
I could see the Giants wanting him to platoon with Yaz, but not at the price Chris Getz apparently STILL wants. The Sox had their chance to cash in on Robert Jr. for 2 seasons and they’ve blown it each time.
If Chicago gets a Minor League lottery ticket with high upside they ought to take it.
Dbacks, Have you seen his platoon splits?
Mashes lefties. Trade him to the Mets please.
There is no way the White Sox will pick up that option. Not foolin anyone.
“Robert Jr.’s market”..I just left the “market” for Luis Robert. It was shuttered and boarded up and had a big red “Closed” sign out front. Apparently, things haven’t been going so well for his “market” these days.
The White Sox are delusional if they think they’re going to get a massive prospect haul for him when he has very little value.
Stay away, Stearns.
Is that the Met GM?
I think hes a good fit for the Mets. 3 way deal where the Mets give up McNeill for Robert. Won’t cost the Mets much money. I think McNeill and Baty are too similar one needs to go.
McNeil’s 132 OPS+ is slightly better than Robert’s 78.
The idea is Robert would start playing better in a better situation. What are their career OPS? And most importantly for the Mets Robert plays a good centerfield.
Platoon splits. It’s only money. It won’t cost the Mets a top 6 prospect.
He’s a clear upgrade against LHPs.
I read an article suggesting a Robert for Christian Encarncion-Strand swap with the Reds. And I think it would be a good swap for both teams.
Makes sense assuming the Reds will take on the salary.
Idk I feel like CES is a bit much unless they’re covering the 5 million
WAY too soon to give up on CES.
If Chicago’s willing to eat most of the contract how about Benintendi for CES.
I don’t think CES is enough.
The Reds need young, starting pitching. That would be a terrible trade with LRJ’s salary.
Umm no they don’t. Greene,Lodolo,Abbott,Burns,Lowder,Williamson. Clueless Yankee fans
Creature. You are grossly underinformed.
This guy… What do you do with him? $20 million to keep him next season… that would be a bargain if he didn’t suck like he has all year. And what contender wants a guy who can’t hit?
He mashes lefties. Take your blinders off.
I think you hit on the key issue. It’s not discussed, but the team option can be a huge value. A (rare) healthy Robert is a $30M player.
He’s been bad two years in a row, isn’t cheap and has two 20 million dollar options which is not cheap either. They are going to get a middling prospect for the guy. I guarantee they could have had Justin Crawford for him this past offseason but that ship has sailed.
After a two year suck, that’s a bet that no team will take, even if they get a couple productive months from him. You can take that same gamble for a lot less by signing him as a FA after the buy out.
At this point, they should be happy for the salary dump….
Somebody take the next line of what if outfielders hands off Chicago’s hands please anybody!
The giants have needed an outfield shakeup for awhile now.they should be in on this as well.
Robert and cash to the Dodgers for Outman, Knack, and Frasso
That’s funny. I appreciate your sense of humor.
Does he come with a Time Machine back to when he had a decent season?
I think the TARDIS is in for repairs.
As Phillies fan, I am wishing hard they do not waste prospects on him.
It depends on the prospects. If the price is low enough, he is worth a try platooning in LF. How can he be that much worse than what’s been tried so far? There is so much room for improvement in the Phillies OF, and enough optionable players (Wilson, Kemp, Rojas, etc.), that I would give him a shot if the price is right.
Please look at the collective numbers for Wilson, Kemp, Rojas and your etc then add the weak hitting Robert. Do you actually watch this Phillies team on a regular basis. Right handed power bat needed outfield ASAP!
I don’t disagree. Getting Robert for the right price doesn’t preclude that. I just believe that his ceiling is so much higher than Wilson’s, for example, that it’s worth a small prospect investment and limited financial risk.
@capn dunsel
How can he be worse? Easy. He pouts because he doesn’t think he should be a platoon player, suddenly has an injury, and milks it on the IL. His ego is too large to accept a “what’s best for the team” approach. He will be more concerned with how a successful Short-side platoon role will negatively set up his free agency price, than helping his new team win.
Perhaps he changes his tune after some clubhouse tutoring on what being in the World Series feels like. If he is truly incorrigible, he can just be cut. I still think the potential benefit is worth the risk for the right price.
Perfect player for the Phillies.
Agree 100%
Maybe add Adrian Houser, plus cash, with Roberts as most teams can use a solid starter for the end of the season push. He’s been excellent for the Sox this season.
If the White Sox can get the Mets to part with Sproat (now that Jonah Tong has surpassed him on the prospect rankings) and maybe somebody like Morabito or Reimer for Robert and $5M, they should take it and run.
This has got to be a troll. Robert who is batting under .200?
Overrated as a trade candidate and ballplayer. losing culture and complacent attitude has taken its toll. Bad body language and complacent attitude. Stay away.
I wish Getz would just take one of the packages. This bum needs to go.
It’s hard to judge someone when they play on
a train wreck of a ball club however, maybe that’s the best time to judge someone. Watch him play watch his body language. He has no heart.
Ohtani has more heart and has better stats than him at least, Oldguy58.
If the Sox don’t get a top 5 prospect, they should hold on to Robert until next season.
… no more Dominic Fletchers