Seth Lugo reeled off another productive start this afternoon, tossing six innings of two-run ball to earn the win at Wrigley Field. The veteran right-hander now carries a 2.95 earned run average with a 22% strikeout rate. This was his 11th quality start in 19 appearances.
Kansas City took two out of three from the Cubs, but they’re still three games under .500. They’re off tomorrow before home series against the Guardians and Braves that’ll take them to the deadline. Lugo would be lined up for one more start against Atlanta until the Royals need to decide on his future. He’ll very likely decline his $15MM player option for next season. Kansas City’s win today pulled them back within four games of the final AL Wild Card spot, pending Boston’s game in Philadelphia. The Rays, Guardians and Rangers all stand between them and Boston.
The Royals would get plenty of calls on Lugo, who’d be one of the best short-term starting pitchers on the market if K.C. made him available. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported yesterday that the Cubs were among the teams that have had conversations with Kansas City about their pitching. Morosi added that the Royals are unsurprisingly more likely to trade Lugo than they would be to part with southpaw Kris Bubic. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears similarly, writing that the Royals are more focused on Lugo at the moment.
That doesn’t mean Lugo is a lock to move. Passan adds that if the Royals feel they’re still in the Wild Card mix, they could keep the veteran right-hander and make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency. That would at least ensure them a compensatory draft pick if Lugo walks. That’d come after the first round if he landed at least a $50MM guarantee; it’d come between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of the third round (roughly 75th overall) if his contract is below $50MM.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also suggests that the Royals have yet to decide whether to deal Lugo. He writes that Kansas City feels they’d have a decent chance to re-sign him as a free agent — following a similar path to last winter’s new deal with Michael Wacha after he opted out. If the Royals were to trade Lugo, Rosenthal adds that they’d want controllable outfield help. K.C.’s longstanding issue getting any kind of offense from their outfielders makes that a logical target.
The opt-out clause in Lugo’s contract is a somewhat complicating factor. While he’d very likely be a rental, an acquiring team would assume the risk that he suffers a significant injury in the final two months and then accounts for $15MM in dead money next season. That wouldn’t be detrimental, especially to a high-payroll franchise, but is a downside that teams will want to price into their trade offers if Kansas City shops Lugo.
Bubic, meanwhile, is under arbitration control for another season. The All-Star lefty is playing on a $3MM salary and should push into the $6-7MM range next year. Bubic has a sterling 2.38 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate in 113 2/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
Teams might have some workload questions after the injury limited him to 46 1/3 combined frames between 2023-24. There are few potentially available pitchers who are performing better than he is, though, so other clubs are surely calling the Royals to gauge his availability. The extra year of club control makes him a longer shot trade candidate for a K.C. team that’ll expect to compete next season even if they’re soft sellers over the coming eight days.
Ironically enough, the Cubs could really use him if he’s available.
Acoss: What’s ironic about it? Several teams could use him.
I think Acoss just meant it’s ironic because the two teams just finished up a series against one another.
Yes, I said it’s ironic because Lugo had just finished getting a quality start and win against the Cubs when the article was posted.
Coincidence and irony get mixed up all the time. Irony is cause from prevention. Like if someone died trying to prevent their death. Or in baseball terms, walking Betts to get to Freeman in Game 1 of the ’24 World Series….
That makes sense. I appreciate the explanation, always like to learn! I’m not being facetious, text can come off as sarcasm.
Ballesteros would be a good hitting prospect for a 2 month rental of Lugo. Might line up there.
I don’t think the cubs are giving him up for Lugo
@Ryno: You might be right, but they are not going to surrender Caissie or Alcantara. KC needs to get BWJ potential help moving forward, and you can’t block everyone in a competitive SP trade market.
I definitely feel like they wouldn’t want to overpay with Lugo, his peripherals are not very good this year, and he has a fairly expensive player option for next year so he isn’t a pure rental. Plus I wouldn’t give up Ballesteros for a rental anyway part of a deal for someone like Edward Cabrera would be better.
Rynoshield: $15 million isn’t at all expensive for a solid starting pitcher like Lugo, which is why he’s likely to decline it.
Most likely yes. The problem is that if something goes wrong or he gets hurt or regresses the rest of the year, there stuck with it
Which is true of any player and any contract. That’s the risk teams take and part of the cost of doing business.
Ballesteros and Long would probably do it. Cubs trade Caissie and Kipp to the Guardians for Bieber. Cubs would be legit with Lugo and a healthy Bieber.
If the cubs did that Jed Hoyer should be fired
If there is one thing the royals DONT need it’s a catcher. It’s going to take Cassie.
He can play 1st or hit DH. But, you are CRAZY if you think the Cubs are giving their #1 prospect for Lugo, a #3 on a contender, for 2 months. They can get Edward Cabrera or Mitch Keller with control if they give up Cassie. You can keep Lugo and get nothing and have him opt out lol
Boston is a better trade partner anyway tbh.
You probably should read the article. They can offer a qualifying offer, so they would get a draft pick. They aren’t just going to give Lugo away.
Im not giving up Caissie for Keller or Cabrera either-
If im Cubs Caissie is only Cubs Prospect thats untouchable!
Cassie to cleveland for Bieber. Bieber is going ace the second half.
Have you been in a coma for 3 years?
Bieber is in High A at 40 pitches and 3 innings, and will 3 if not 4 more starts before he will even be considered for MLB ready
I see Beiber with a WS ring on his finger.
Lugo is more than a #3. He was the runner up in AL Cy Young last year with the same ERA and WHIP this year.
And they need neither of those either.
Stove might be warming up. Buckle up Cubs nation gonna be a fun summer and October. Sellers market, overpriced, dont give the farm away unless its Mr. Paul Skenes.
Jump 84: The Brewers might be the better team.
The Padres are interested
Lugo >>> <<< Duran
Would Dom Canzone (Mariners; hitting .870 ops) get Lugo?
Maybe, but would the Mariners want to do that trade? Pitching is their strength. Their offense is what has been lacking over the past couple years, and I doubt they want to trade one of their best hitters this year who is still young and controllable for a long time.
Dead money is a football thing. We dont need it or want it around these parts.
Albatross, please.
If royals are smart they will sell and reload with advanced prospects . They cannot win it all this year and might not even make the playoffs. No major rebuild ; just a brief tune up
NBCSports is reporting that there could be interest in a trade between the Royals and Red Sox centered around Lugo and Duran. Obviously the Royals would need to include more than just Lugo, as Duran is still very valuable and controllable for three more seasons, whereas Lugo is a free agent after this season. I’m not sure that I like this idea as a Red Sox fan. I’d ideally want a younger and more controllable arm if they’re really going to trade Duran.
If KC makes a deal for Jarren Duran, they should be willing to give Bubic in that deal.
And who is supposed to be part of the rotation if you trade both of them? That would drop us down to Cameron and Wacha in the rotation. I don’t consider a Rich hill part of this rotation going forward. We have two injured members of the rotation that probably won’t be back until early to mid August. You don’t trade two members of your rotation no matter where you are in the playoff race.
Lugo for Duran is not happening. The Sox have a surplus of LH bats, but they are not giving Duran away for a rental.
Absolutely…..Duran isn’t going to be dealt for a rental….
Do the Cubs need a catcher prospect? How about Lugo and Carter Jensen for Caissie and Gallagher or Birdsell?
There is no way they are going to trade the Kansas City native Carter Jensen to the Cubs!!!!
Already have Blake Mitchell though. Something has to give at catcher.
Royals are going to add an MLB bat in the Lugo trade. They are going for it this year with Bubic, Wacha, Kyle Wright, Rich Hill and Noah Cameron.
Kyle Wright is throwing the ball well and Rich Hill had a good start last week. That’s going to be entertaining.
Rich Hill is 45….exactly how long do you expect his fountain of youth to last…..why in the world would you replace Lugo with Hill if “you’re going for it”……if they need a bat, there will be plenty available for far less than trading one of your best starters for it……
Rich hill is not part of the rotation going forward. He was a spot start for Lorenzen.
D-backs could trade from their outfield depth for Bubic
You do know the Royals have two members of the rotation on the injury list that probably won’t be back until at least early to mid August? if you trade Kris Bubic you are down to Noah Cameron and Michael Wacha, especially since people think we should also trade Seth Lugo. I don’t think that Rich hill is going to be part of the rotation in mid August.
Didn’t know. But that makes sense if KC doesn’t have young pitching to fill in those spots if they’re traded.
Royals aren’t trading Bubic. The big bats might not come for Lugo, but Bubic isn’t getting traded.
“Meanwhile” must START the sentence. It cannot come in the middle, between commas.