We’re just over one-third of the way through the 2025 regular season, and it’s been about six weeks since MLBTR’s initial ranking of the upcoming members of the 2025-26 MLB free agent class. It’s a good time for a refresh, although many of the same names will populate the list (albeit in a different order). There are two new entrants, however, and the bottom of the list has shuffled around particularly.
As a reminder, our power rankings at MLB Trade Rumors are not a straight ranking of the best free agents in the upcoming class. There are plenty of older veterans who can make significant impact on short-term deals. However, our rankings are based on total earning power, which means older vets like Paul Goldschmidt are rarely going to crack the top 10, regardless of how strong their performance is. Their age will simply limit them to a shorter-term pact that caps their earning power and leaves them with smaller guarantees than less-productive (but still quality) contributors who can more plausibly push for a long-term deal.
As we’ve seen with recent mega-deals for Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., age is king when it comes to unlocking the richest deals MLB has to offer. The best way a player can position himself for a monster contract is to get to free agency at as young an age as possible — and, of course, do so while turning in excellent results at the plate or on the mound.
One notable and somewhat enigmatic name that’s dropped off our list entirely, for now, is NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami. The 25-year-old corner infielder has played in only one game so far in 2025 due to an oblique strain. Reports dating all the way back to Dec. 2022 indicated that Murakami would be posted following the 2025 season. At the time, he was fresh off a 56-homer MVP campaign, wherein he hit .318/.458/.710 as a 22-year-old. The sky is the limit for that blend of power production and youth. Murakami’s numbers slipped in 2023-24, however. He still popped a combined 64 homers but did so with mounting strikeout rates and increasing struggles against higher-end velocity. Now with an injury that’s sidelined him effectively all season and minimal clarity as to a potential return date — or even whether he still plans to pursue MLB opportunities this winter — he’s been dropped to our honorable mention section. If Murakami returns in June and bashes 20 to 30 homers with strong rate stats over the final few months of the NPB season, he’ll jump right back onto this list — probably onto the top half. For now, he’s something of an unknown, and we’re choosing to focus on more known commodities with a surefire path to the open market.
Onto the updated rankings!
1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs
Stats since last edition: .268/.365/.479, seven home runs, 12 steals, 13.8 BB%, 12 K%
No change here. Tucker fell into a brief slump in mid-May where he tallied just six hits in 11 games, but broke out of that funk with consecutive three-hit games that included a home run. The 28-year-old Tucker is batting .281/.388/.525 with a dozen homers and 15 stolen bases at the one-third mark of the Cubs’ season. He’s on pace for about 35 homers and 45 steals — all while walking more than he’s struck out (15.1% versus 12%) — and is also on pace to top the century mark in both runs and RBIs.
The only possible dings on Tucker’s season so far is that defensive metrics like DRS and OAA both feel he’s been a bit below average. You could point out that he’s not playing at quite as torrid a pace last year in terms of his rate stats, but if we’re resorting to “he’s only 51% better than average rather than 80% better like last year,” that’s officially grasping at straws territory. Tucker is a bona fide superstar who won’t turn 29 until January. He’ll have a qualifying offer hanging over him, but interested parties won’t care about sacrificing a draft pick and international funds if Tucker holds this pace and finishes the season around his current seven- to eight-WAR pace. Nothing Tucker has done this season should dissuade fans from thinking his next contract will at least start with a 4, and it very well could top the half-billion threshold.
2. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres
Stats since last edition: 44 1/3 innings, 3.45 ERA, 29.8 K%, 7.7 BB%
Cease is still lugging a 4.58 ERA in late May, but that’s due almost entirely to an April 8 bludgeoning at the hands of the A’s. He hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his other starts, and his production since that regrettable outing is exactly the type you’d expect from a pitcher of this caliber. The 29-year-old righty has done his best work of late, holding opponents to nine runs with a 33-to-5 K/BB ratio over his past four starts (at Yankee Stadium, home versus the Angels, at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, at Atlanta’s Truist Park). He’s pitched into the seventh inning in three of those four starts. Metrics like FIP (3.24) and SIERA (3.20) feel that Cease’s ERA should be at least a full run lower.
He’s had a few shorter outings this season — none more so than that A’s hiccup — but Cease has taken the ball 11 times and continued to pitch like the sport’s most durable starter. He’s never been on the major league injured list and leads MLB in games started dating back to 2020. Assuming he continues to distance himself from that A’s meltdown, this would be Cease’s third sub-4.00 ERA in four seasons, including a Cy Young runner-up effort back in 2022. His 96.8 mph average fastball is as strong as ever. This year’s gaudy 15.7% swinging-strike rate would actually be a career-high, as would his 33.8% opponents’ chase rate. Cease won’t turn 30 until December. He’s a lock to reject a qualifying offer, and he’ll have a real chance at surpassing $200MM in free agency based on his age, power repertoire, swing-and-miss ability and unrivaled durability.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox
Stats since last update: .305/.407/.602, nine homers, 11 doubles, 17.3 K%, 12 BB%
Bregman was on one of the hottest streaks of his career prior to a recent quadriceps strain that will sideline him for more than a month — possibly close to two. It’s awful timing given just how excellent Bregman was prior to the injury, but the strength of that performance still puts a substantial payday on the table in a way it may not have been just this past offseason.
Bregman had to shake off the stink of an early slump last year — one of the worst six-week stretches of his career. When he finally did so, he did it in a way that still raised some red flags. Namely, Bregman’s walk rate even during his good stretch over the final four months of the 2024 campaign was about half what it’d been in prior seasons. There were genuine questions about his approach at the plate, and he carried a career-worst (in a full season) .315 on-base percentage into free agency.
This year’s walk rate is just shy of 10%, and as noted already, it was up to 12% during his recent run of excellence. Bregman has never hit the ball as hard as he has in 2025. He’s averaging 92 mph off the bat — up from his previous career-high of 89.4 mph — and sporting a 48.1% hard-hit rate that’s a career-best by more than eight percentage points.
If Bregman returns from his quad injury and struggles, it will unquestionably impact his earning power. If he returns and looks like the hitter he’s been through his first 226 plate appearances, he might have a case to top the precedent-setting contracts secured by Freddie Freeman (six years, $162MM) and Matt Chapman (six years, $151MM) ahead of their age-32 campaigns (the same age Bregman will be in free agency). He won’t have a qualifying offer this time around, and this type of offensive performance, coupled with Bregman’s glove and the type of clubhouse demeanor and leadership teams covet, could push him past $175MM and might even have $200MM in play.
Injury notwithstanding, there might not be a player in baseball who’s helped his free agent case as much as Bregman with his blistering start.
4. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
Stats since last update: 51 innings, 3.71 ERA, 20.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 57.2 GB%
Valdez’s stats since the publish of our initial rankings are skewed by one awful start the night those rankings were released. He was torched for seven runs in St. Louis but has rebounded tremendously, as one would expect for a top-tier starter. Anyone looks better when you sweep their worst performance under the rug, but Valdez has a 2.68 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate and 59% ground-ball rate across his past 47 innings.
Valdez might not come to mind right away when MLB fans try to rattle off the league’s best pitchers, but he’s a hard-throwing, durable lefty who misses bats and limits walks at strong rates and is perhaps the sport’s premier ground-ball pitcher (at least in regard to starting pitchers). Virtually no one in MLB can be relied upon for as many innings per start as Valdez, who’s completed six or more frames in eight of his 11 outings. He’s ninth in the majors in innings pitched despite six of the eight names ahead of him having an extra start under their belts. In an era where pitchers increasingly depart the game after five frames, Valdez has averaged 6 1/3 innings per start since 2021 — and done so with a pristine 3.11 ERA, roughly average strikeout and walk rates, and the second-highest ground-ball rate of any starter in baseball (61.9% to Andre Pallante’s 62%).
The only thing holding Valdez back is his age. He’ll turn 32 in November. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have only been four starting pitchers in the past 15 years to land a free-agent contract of five years or more beginning in their age-32 campaign (or later): Cliff Lee (five years, $125MM in 2010), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM in 2015), Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM in 2022) and Blake Snell (five years, $182MM just this past offseason).
If Valdez were a year younger, we might realistically be talking about a six-year contract. Most teams will probably be pushing for him on a high-AAV four-year deal instead, but Valdez is (somewhat quietly) so good that he’ll have a real chance to follow Snell as a recent exception to that rule about long-term deals for 32-year-old pitchers.
5. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Stats since last update: .261/.310/.427, five homers, four steals, 16.7 K%, 6.5 BB%
On the last set of rankings, we noted that while Bichette’s general batting line was fairly pedestrian, he was back to making loud contact and putting the ball in play with great frequency. All of the ingredients for an uptick in power seemed to be in place, and if Bichette can hit like he did from 2019-23, most will overlook a down year at the plate during a 2024 season in which he was clearly hobbled by injury. Twenty-eight-year-old shortstops with plus hit tools, above-average power and above-average speed don’t come around all that often on the open market.
Since that writing, the power has indeed begun to manifest. Bichette has homered five times in his past 168 plate appearances and cracked another 11 doubles. He’s still not producing at an elite rate, but he’s averaging 91.3 mph off the bat with a 49.7% hard-hit rate. Those are very strong numbers that fall right in line with his 2019-23 batted-ball metrics. Bichette is hitting more line drives, fewer grounders and has popped up at a much lower rate. He’s still “only” about 8% better than average at the plate, but Statcast credits him with an “expected” batting average of .310, nearly 40 points higher than his current mark, and an “expected” slugging percentage of .495 — almost 90 points north of his current level.
In reality, Bichette is probably going to either position himself for a huge contract in free agency or follow the path taken by Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and others over the years: sign an opt-out-laden, short-term deal that can get him back to market as soon as possible. At least for the time being, all of the arrows on his batted-ball profile are pointing up. If he can put together a big summer, then as recently laid out by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald, there’s no reason to think he can’t push for a contract somewhere in the Dansby Swanson ($177MM) to Carlos Correa ($200MM) range.
6. Michael King, RHP, Padres
Stats since last update: 33 1/3 innings, 2.70 ERA, 29.9 K%, 6.7 BB%
King seemingly bolsters his case every time he takes the mound. He’s currently unable to do so, sitting on the 15-day IL due to inflammation in his right shoulder, but there’s no indication it’s a serious injury. The Padres called it a pinched nerve, which has an uncertain timeline, but said there’s nothing wrong structurally (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). If he returns in short order and keeps up his prior pace, he’s going to cash in handsomely.
King is still relatively new to starting. This is only his second full season in a rotation, but he’s been borderline elite ever since moving into the role. He’s averaging 5 2/3 innings per start this season — same as in 2024 — and currently boasts a 2.95 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Both are slight improvements over his strikeout and walk rates from 2024, and both (the strikeout rate in particular) are better than the league average.
Since the Yankees put King into the rotation late in 2023, he’s started 49 games with a 2.70 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate — a near-mirror image of what he’s done in this season’s 10 starts. It’s not the most conventional path to top-of-the-rotation status, but King increasingly looks the part of a genuine Game 1 or Game 2 playoff starter. He’s not necessarily flashy, averaging 93.7 mph on his heater and sporting good-but-not-elite rate stats. It doesn’t matter, though. The end results are excellent and appear sustainable.
King turned 30 last weekend. That makes the 2026 season technically his age-31 campaign, though the age gap between him and Zac Gallen is only a matter of about three months. It’s a bit misleading to call next season King’s age-31 season and Gallen’s age-30 season; they’re both right on the cusp of the arbitrary July 1 cutoff that’s generally accepted for that designation.
Because King started his big league career in the bullpen, his camp can argue that he has lesser mileage on his arm than most of the other pitchers on this list — while rivaling virtually any of them in quality. If he keeps this pace up, he’s a slam dunk to reject a qualifying offer, and a five-year deal seems like the floor. Six years and an annual value in the $25MM vicinity would very likely be on the table.
7. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Yankees
Stats since last update: .279/.356/.507, seven homers, nine doubles, 14.4 K%, 11.3 BB%
Here we go again. The near perennial conundrum that is Bellinger’s free agent status is again being thrust into the spotlight. Bellinger has shaken off a terrible start to his season and looks well on his way to a better season at the plate than the good-not-great performance he turned in last year in his final season as a Cub.
At present, Bellinger’s .258/.329/.457 slash checks in 20% better than average, according to the wRC+ metric (which weights for a hitter-friendly home setting in the Bronx). The recent hot streak, however, suggests that his season batting line will end up a good bit north of that rate still.
Bellinger will have several things going for him in this bite at the free-agent apple that he didn’t in the past. He was a non-tender coming off two terrible years in the 2022-23 offseason, when he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He turned in a brilliant 2023 season, but his market that winter was clouded by skepticism regarding his performance in 2021-22 and a pretty lackluster batted-ball profile that pointed to regression. He also had a qualifying offer with which to contend. After returning to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal with a pair of opt-outs, he had a decent but not great year at the plate in 2024. He chose to forgo an opt-out last winter, recognizing that he could pocket $32.5MM more on his current deal and opt out again if he hit well in 2025.
He’s not just hitting well this year, he’s eliminating the red flags that plagued him previously. The ugly 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 31.4% hard-hit rate he showed in ’23 have been replaced by marks of 90 mph and 40.5%. Below-average walk rates in 2023-24 have been swapped out for a hearty 10.3% mark this year. Is he selling out for power and improved batted-ball contact at the expense of contact? Nope. His 17.8% strikeout rate is up from the 15.6% mark he posted in 2022-23, but his swinging-strike rate is actually down to a career-low 8.8%. As noted already, his strikeout rate since the last MLBTR Power Rankings is just over 14%.
Bellinger won’t have a qualifying offer. It’s crazy to think he’s still only 29, since we’ve been talking about him as a free agent for three years now. His return to free agency will come ahead of his age-30 season, and all the arrows are pointing up. A nine-figure deal will be in play if this keeps up, and it’s easy to imagine Bellinger and Scott Boras taking aim at George Springer’s $150MM guarantee or Brandon Nimmo’s $162MM guarantee.
8. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies
Stats since last update: 30 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA, 24.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 47.6 GB%
Suarez missed the first five weeks of the season with a back injury — a concerning start to his platform season even before considering that this is now his second straight year missing a month or more due to back troubles. In 2023, he was limited to just 22 starts by a hamstring strain and an elbow strain.
That’s a whole lot of ominous injury history, but Suarez’s performance when he’s on the mound rarely disappoints. That’s eminently true in 2025, when he’s roared out of the gates with a sub-3.00 ERA and better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. His average fastball, which dipped to a career-low 91.8 mph last year, is back up to 92.3 mph. It’s not quite to the 93.4 mph he averaged in 2023, but it’s still a positive trend.
Whenever Suarez is healthy, he’s a good bet to average about 5 2/3 innings per start while turning in strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that are comfortably better than average. He’s rarely posted elite marks in any of those categories (save, perhaps, for 2022’s grounder rate of 55.4%), but Suarez consistently performs like a No. 2-3 starter. He’s a legitimate option for a postseason rotation and has been deployed as such by the Phils dating back to 2022. Oh, and his results in those playoff starts? Suarez has 37 2/3 postseason frames in his career, all coming as a starter with the Phillies, and he’s logged an immaculate 1.43 ERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.
Suarez might not be the first name that springs to mind when thinking about $100MM starters, but he won’t turn 30 until August and should have a chance to land in the $110-115MM range achieved by Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman a few years back. If he keeps up his current pace, he could even top the AAV on those five-year deals by a few million.
9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Stats since last update: .279/.376/.500, seven homers, 11 doubles, 24.3 K%, 11.6 BB%
Alonso opened the 2025 season on one of the most epic slugging binges of any hitter in recent memory. His April stats look like something out of Rookie mode from MLB: The Show. The Polar Bear slashed .343/.474/.657 through the end of April (214 wRC+) — and he did it with a near 17% walk rate and a strikeout rate shy of 15%.
That carried into the first few days of May, but Alonso has cooled considerably over his past 20 games, hitting .192/.244/.321. Worse yet, that incredible K-BB profile has gone up in flames. He’s punched out in 33.7% of his plate appearances during this slump against just a 5.8% walk rate. Alonso has two multi-hit games in this stretch compared to seven hitless performances. His 93.1 mph average exit velocity and 49% hard-hit rate are still great, but they’re nowhere near the 95.3 mph and 59.4% marks he carried through May 5.
Alonso’s early heroics still carry some weight, and if he can break out of these May doldrums and continue onward near his composite .290/.391/.541 batting line, he’s going to be compensated very nicely in free agency. His ultimate payday hinges on whether he’s closer to April’s Dr. Jekyll or May’s Mr. Hyde, but Alonso won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over him in free agency this time around and could top $100MM with another four months of mostly productive slugging.
10. Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF, Phillies
Stats since last update: .250/.390/.549, 13 homers, 17.5% BB%, 23.7% K%
While many of the other hitters in the class have struggled and/or battled injury, Schwarber has remained an impact power presence in the middle of Philadelphia’s lineup. He’s tied for second in the majors with 19 home runs and owns a massive .252/.394/.569 slash line across 249 plate appearances. He’s trending towards a career season, leveling up from an already excellent first three years with the Phils.
Schwarber carries a .224/.349/.496 slash over the course of his four-year, $79MM free agent deal. He’s one of three players (joining Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) with at least 150 homers since the start of the 2022 season. Schwarber may not provide much value outside the batter’s box, but he’s on the shortlist of the sport’s best sluggers right now.
If this list were based solely on the player’s platform year performance, Schwarber would be in the top five. He’s off that pace in a list based on earning power. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald covered in much greater detail last week, the market generally doesn’t look kindly on designated hitters or position players approaching their mid-30s. Schwarber will be entering his age-33 season — a time at which hitters almost never get to five years or $25MM annually. He’ll probably buck the latter trend, with a four-year deal around $25MM per season giving him the best chance to reach nine figures. A higher AAV over three years that results in an $80-90MM guarantee isn’t out of the question.
The Phillies will make an effort to keep him around. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in April that Schwarber had rejected an offseason extension proposal. Talks didn’t progress at the time. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post this week that the Phils “would love to keep him as part of the organization for the long term, no doubt.” At the very least, they’ll make him a qualifying offer to ensure they get draft compensation if he walks.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Shane Bieber, Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham, Ryan Helsley, Rhys Hoskins, Tyler Mahle, Munetaka Murakami, Cedric Mullins, Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Weaver
Tender a QO to Cease before he walks and hopefully extend King. 6y/$168MM
Yes and yes. I was hoping for signing Goldie last year (trade Arreaz for same money and get some prospects). I think you can QO Arreaz because surely someone offers him 3/45. Maybe we can get him for 2026. Sanabria is looking good at AA for possibly 2027.
QO will be around 20m I think if Arreaz was offered that he’d accept it. Pads should be aggressive and try to extend both pitchers but King will cost more based on the way they’re pitching
Maybe but, 3/45 – he might very well get more – would be hard to pass up over 1/20.
QO was $21.05 million in the 2024-2025 offseason and it will be closer to $22 million this coming offseason. With the huge jumps in the top contracts the last 2 seasons, the average of the top salaries in baseball has gone up and so will the qualifying offer.
Idk about Arraez getting 3/45. I mean if he finishes very strong it’s possible but he would possibly take a QO if they made one (not sure they would). If he can still play a decent 2B his skill set is fairly valuable but at 1B he is not so good. He’s too short to be playing there anyway. If he hits 330 or something I could see teams looking at 2024 as an “off” year offensively. But he’s playing bad defense.
Rishi – I’ve watched most of his innings at 1b and after suffering thru Hosmer and Voit years, I can’t see why someone says he is playing bad defense at 1b.
I haven’t seen a lot of “he should have made that play” situations. I’ve seen a lot of digs, hustle in foul territory for catches, etc. He may not be the guy that is awesome but he surely isn’t “bad”.
Rishi – I was curious so according to statmuse, Arreaz has the most hits of any mlb player in last 3 years.
Teams tend to pay for hitting.
The numbers are bad. But it just doesn’t make sense having a 5’10 1B to me. He is a small target. I could see if he had good range but he is actually dead last in range. I haven’t seen him play a ton of 1B. I have heard he isn’t great at scooping but I haven’t looked at the stats.
I’d give you range – he isn’t the most spry prototypical athletic 1b but well, neither are a lot of 1b either. He just makes the plays though and he scoops well enough from what I’ve watched.
I’d take him 10 to 1 at scooping over Hosmer.
He isn’t going to win GG because he isn’t flashy and doesn’t “wow”. Still, solid guy out there.
I admire his skill set but his single type hit tool is the only tool he has. It works when he’s hitting for a huge AVG with closer to 10 HR. But he can’t afford to be down under 300 or under 350 with the on base %/or 400 with the SLG. He has shown a bit more power which is good (only hit 4 HR last year). Typically players like him are speedsters with good defense. But he is in the bottom 25% in sprint speed. And I respect your opinion but all I have is stats and they paint him as a bad fielder this year. I have been in his corner most years but the offense has taken a step back (it’s only a year and 1/4 or so tho).
I think it will be tough for the Padres to issue a QO on Arraez due to budget constraints and the real chance he could accept (I’d probably put of him accepting in the 30-40% range today). Not unlike their decisions last year with Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim.
I could see Preller giving Arraez one of his 3 year deal specials that contain opt outs after each season, like Jurickson Profar or Nick Martinez. Or perhaps its the 4 year of the same variety like with Wandy Peralta. Once he tests the market to see what’s out there.I
Arraez is going to need to have a big rest of the season I think for them to consider making him a QO.
I think he’ll be like Profar and Kim last year where the thought of him taking the 21m pay day is too risky to make. And if he is issued a QO that is only going to hurt his market increasing the likelihood he accepts.
Him testing the market and eventually returning on a Preller special, a 3 or 4 year deal with opt outs after year one (like Profar, Nick Martinez and Wandy Peralta) I could envision. It would be for a lot less than 20m/yr… more like 12m/yr with a 2-3m buyout if he opts out.
I do agree that he is a nice fit at 1b for this team and being able to scoop throws in the dirt, which he is great at, is way more important on this team then a tall 1b that can snag airmails…. that’s not a problem with Machado and Boegarts on the left side of the infield.
Goes far beyond air mails. He cannot stretch as far. He cannot even dive as far (to go with his bottom 1% range). And because apparently they don’t want him playing second, Cronenworth is playing there a lot and he has not been good this year at 2B. Again all the stats support that but you may very well tell me you think Cronenworth has been good defensively. But regardless Arraez hasn’t hit all that exceptionally since 2023. And he’s playing a position where hitting is a must (unless the rest of your team hits well in which case you can throw a good defender over there with an average bat but again…he is not a good defender). This is not James Loney hitting league average with excellent defense. He is honestly a weak spot on the team. Not a person who should get a “3-4 year deal”. What GM would not give someone a QO and then offer them a 3-4 year deal? He’s not getting either.
It hasn’t been a “single skill set.” His AVG is so high it makes his OBP high as well.
OAA dislikes him, but DRS has typically favored him, while UZR grades him out as a little below average.
He generates about 40 XBH a year, he just doesn’t hit home runs. Ignoring his one pretty outstanding “skill” as you put it, he has generated a career line of .aaa/.368/.418 wRC+ 119.
Now, I don’t know if Arraez is the same guy as he was a couple years ago, but I don’t think it would take a fantastic season by his standards to get 3/45. He’s still at wRC+ 108 right now.
Yea. DRS valued him at 2B. Two years ago. My point is all stats say he is having a bad defensive season. It would be in his favor if he were able to show what he can do at 2B in 2025 (I said he would be quite valuable as a 2B). Basically I agreed he could get a 3 year deal but I admit I perhaps threw some cold water on that in the last post. I just feel the Pads fans are seeing him as more valuable than he has been on their team. Idk how a team feels signing him as a 2B when he hasn’t played there recently and the metrics were split to begin with. Coupled with his defense being so down this year at 1B. It leaves a lot of questions. But sorry to have snapped a bit and contradicted myself.
Rishi you admittedly said you haven’t watched alot of Padre games. I doubt their is a single person in the Padres front office or management staff that isn’t 100% satisfied with the defense they are receiving at 1b and 2b by Arraez and Cronenworth from this year.
When Arraez was out for a week and Sheets covered 1b there were numerous plays and scoops he didn’t make that Arraez does routinely, the dropoff was very noticeable. Agree completely about him being better then Hosmer, who the last several years was not picking scoops regularly and lots of routine plays weren’t being made, missed popups that were as routine as can be, etc. Arraez is great and making all the plays he should. Doesn’t mean he’s an elite 1b.
I do think if Cronenworth wasn’t already locked up for an additional 5 years it would provide a clearer path to keep Arraez. Not that I want Arraez at 2b, the dropoff between he and Crone there is sizable, but thinking down the road when De Vries is ready and committing to those guys as your 1b and DH for numerous seasons, not ideal.
Yeah I mean the way you are refusing to address that they both have bad stats defensively no matter what statistic you use is what made me sort of snap about Arraez. I mean if you think all the numbers stink I get that but your idea that the front office doesn’t put stock in them is definitely wrong. He keeps being compared to Hosmer. So what? That proves nothing. If Hosmer was so bad then why does that mean Arraez is so good because he is better than a horrible player? It also indicates you could be a bit bias because you’ve been watching a terrible 1B in the past. Dirt would probably taste good if I had the taste of dung stuck in my mouth
I do get that I posted some stuff that’s questionable in the one post. But in terms of watching him you really would have to be watching extremely closely to pay attention to 1B defense. I have seen him play ATL 7 times and I recall seeing at least two other pads games. He doesn’t look very good to me. I’m a former 1B myself (not of professional caliber) I pay a lot of attention to it. He seems like a placeholder at best. I could see a team giving him a nice deal to DH or maybe even return to 2B but not as a 1B. And unless his batting line ticks up a bit more I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 2/22M or something or even a one year deal. That’s my point.
As far as Padre fans seeing Arraez as more valuable then he is, things changed quickly when they acquired him.
Consider in 2023 they went 82-80. They then started 2024 with a record of 17-18 before trading for Arraez. After which they went 76-51 the remainder of the season with him inserted into the leadoff spot. His 4 hit debut was a huge jolt to a team that looked flat for the past 200 games.
Carry over to 2025 and they have gone 108-74 playing .593 ball since he joined the team. He probably means more to the Padres then he would any other team in baseball. Plus having Tony Gwynn as the organizations godfather is the perfect setting for him to be appreciated for his hit over power approach.
I hope they keep him beyond 2025!
I’m glad you guys like him. But also I’m sure adding guys like Cease, Adam, and King had something to do with it.
Why is a Braves fan getting so held up on the Padres right side of the infield defense?
Defensive stats are only so valuable. Hey one year Tatis is a platinum glove winning RF, the next year he’s league average, and then viola, he’s elite again with the glove.
But yeah, having some crap defensive 1b makes you appreciate someone who is solid, even if he’s not Matt Olson there.
Lastly the Padres have won 8 of their last 10 games against those Braves so I’m really not sure why a Braves fan would think the Padres right infield defense is hurting them. I think the numbers I posted below since they acquired Arraez further support that.
PP – and needing 1b for Bog or Cro in 2027 when De Vries is up.
I’ll take Goldie for 26 at 1b
Being a Braves fan has nothing to do with anything. Yes. The Padres have lots of good players. They are a good team. Every team has something they aren’t great at. It doesn’t mean they aren’t gonna win a lot of games. The last thing I would mention is I do believe metrics are inadequate at 1B. I believe them when they all point very negative or very positive but in general I question them.
Rishi, Arraez will get far more than 3/45. He is in his age 28 season and even a down season for him puts him in line for a 6-7 year deal of around $80 million. Possibly more if he wins or is close to winning another batting title.
Rishi, according to the guys that created them including John Dewan and Michael Litchman, no defensive metric is a valid measurement prior to having 2700 innings played, it’s hard to say what Arraez defensive production at 1B is with any certainty since he has 1500 innings over 4 seasons at the position. It always bugs me when people try to say how good or bad a player is overall on defense when they have played far too few innings to know with any certainty.
I would agree with you that from an eye test, Arraez is not one of the greats at 1B. I would also argue that we don’t yet know how good or bad he is since he has so little of sample size to base a judgement on.
No defensive metric other than BP’s DRP takes into account a 1B #1 job, catching balls thrown to them by other infielders, it’s hard to knock him. OAA mainly measures and weights a player’s ability to get to balls in play off the bat, not how they do at the other portion of their jobs on defense. It measures their range, ability to catch the ball, and accuracy on throws. Thats it. There is so much more to defense than that.
At doing the most important part of a 1B job, something partially measured in the Scoop (SCP) stat on Fangraphs, Arraez has been slightly below MLB average in his time with the Padres and in 2025. He has not been Pete Alonso who is a vacuum cleaner at 1B, but he hasn’t been Rowdy Tellez whose nickname is Ole.
In terms of how he ranks on DRP with the caveat that he does not have enough innings played to make a solid judgement yet, here is what BP says.
baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/fielding/
Rishi, not all stats. Baseball Prospectus Defensive Runs Prevented or DRP has him 5th in baseball this season.
Here is what OAA measures:
• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball (“the intercept point”)
• How much time he has to get there
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to
• On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average
OAA mainly measures range, and we know his range is bad but that is not a 1B main job. A 1B will catch 800-1000 balls thrown by other infielders to 100 plays on balls in play. Why do you think OAA ignores that part of a 1B job?
OAA also takes into account the velocity and accuracy of throws. 80+% of a 1B’s “throws” are underhand tosses to a moving target, a pitcher running to cover 1B. Do you expect a 1B to measure highly on a chart of MLB players in arm strength? Didn’t think so. After all, underarm tosses don’t have a very high velocity.
Some day we will have a defensive metric that measures a player’s full contribution on defense, but that day is not today and even then, we will need far more than 361 innings to make a judgement.
Did you see Bogaerts shagging fly balls before the game yesterday? Not the same as doing actual OF defensive practice to learn routes and throws, but still interesting.
Those are excellent posts. Only thing I would say in defense is it really doesn’t take much to know a 5’10 1B is not gonna be capable of stretching as far for a throw. And while his range is certainly not the main factor at 1B it is still important to a degree and he is last. You make very good points. I feel it’s gotten out of hand a bit because I’m really not even putting down the player but I can’t see a Universe where a team gives a 6-7 year deal to a player hitting a bit above league average who isnt particularly gifted at running or fielding. So while I pretty much agree with you I think we will see come free agency that said prediction was vastly incorrect.
Rishi – agrees good dialogue and no, we won’t know for a few months and even then, sometimes decisions are made that are head scratchers (and never explained).
My call of 3/45 factored in a lower term but a couple mil more than what I’d prefer. That said, I think a fair point that at 28, 6 / 72 is only. 12 average for a guy that has the most hits in mlb over last 3 years – and still going. Factor in that he is less likely to regress from hitting during those peak years, and well I not so sure that a longer term lower AAV isn’t more feasible. The things he does well are not as likely to regress as other players his age with different skill sets.
Off-season are fun to watch.
Stretch as far as whom? There have been Gold Glove 1B under 6′.
If he hits, he gets a 6-7 year deal because of his age. Its really that simple. Defense has never played into a contract for a 1B. Hitting does.
Weak class. I can’t wait to see overpays Tucker/Bichette/Bellinger
You lost me at Tucker. He’s a special player.
The extension of young guys has changed FA forever. As you call a class “weak” just get used to it not being the same as 5 years ago.
You may never see elites of Vlad, Tatis, Merrill, Acuna, etc., hit the 27-28 years ago old FA window.
Now, the guys that hit their stride in year 3/4 will ride it out because they are getting arb money and close to FA. So, there will be some high end talent, just not 10-15 deep like the old days.
Hoskins made the honorable mentions…. Nice
Yet a other comment by JackStraeb where he falsely claims age 27 is definitive prime of MLB players. He’s been provided links numerous times showing statistically MLB primes go a couple years past age 27. Even that # is an average, so his proclamations that every player will be past their prime is false on multiple fronts. But hey why worry about facts when you can just blabber assumptions as though they are true.. .
Jack lives in a world in his own head. He is one of the unhealthiest humans to grace these threads and others. Jack is a legend in his own tiny mind.
Cursory tip of the hat to any team that can afford him but who doesn’t buy into giving 29 yo Kyle Tucker half a billion, even if the RFer does turn out to have a career year in 2025 at 28.
You’re buying into what on average is the first post-prime year of a fine player’s career. He doesn’t play a premium position, and he’s only been worth as much as 5.0 fWAR twice.
Half a billion? GTXOH.
ZIPs at fg sensibly has him worth 8/$203m, while acknowledging he won’t be signing for that. Add a 50% premium bc you never get a star without going a little mad, and he’s still got only five years from that 5.0 fWAR point where he’s worth a starting gig, call it six years if you squint a lot.
Half a billion? GTXXOH.
blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2025-…
If he was signing close to the $200 million he’d still be in Houston. That fair number went out the window the minute Soto signed that ridiculous deal.
The world according to Jack.
And Jack has no idea he’s blind…
I would have thought Marcel Ozuna would have made the honorable mention list
My thoughts exactly.
The biggest red flag on that list is Bo Bichette. He’s got such a low Barrel% in the 9%-range and he had no plate discipline, with a O-Swing% of 33.2% this year and a career 36.4%.
Buyer beware…
Did you ask AI what advance stats are and copy and paste ?
There is zero chance you understand what you just said.
Outside of last year, Bo has consistently been a 4 Win player, how is that ‘buyer’ beware
@Dustyslambchops23
No, Fangraphs has all three data points on their player data page. Might want to look at it before posting your troll job. He profiles like a younger Tim Anderson. This is my professional opinion.
6-9% barrel rate is average. 10 and above is good. 30% is average O-swing.
He’s primarily been a contact hitter and spreads ball around, .any to opposite field. Hitters of his type are going to swing at outside pitches, those are ideal for driving ball to opposite field.
@Tigers3232
I’m speaking of regression. I don’t expect his output will last much of his career. He profiles more like younger Tim Anderson. Flashes of potential but it won’t last. I’m just saying that the buyer should understand this when offering a contract. His buddy, Vlad, who got paid is much better at all three categories of K%, Barrel % and O-Swing % and Vlad is younger.
My Nats Need Pitching…Couple top end starters to go with Gore and a few Elite relievers to go with Finnegan…
And a Couple Power Bats…1st Base(Alonzo)
And 3rd Base(Bergman) and a DH(Schwarbs)
Go get that Rizzo and I’ll see u at the World Series!!!!!
Lofty trade deadline goals! I like your plan.
If Soto has a bad season will teams rethink paying insane amounts to players with no guarantees of performance ?
well can you guarantee anything?
For all we know Judge could decide tomorrow you know what i want to be a monk and im done with baseball regardless of how much money they offer. He could also fake injury as he has the known lisfranc injury and over dramatize it.
I guess the question should be will players and the players union accept lesser contracts for their biggest talents or can the owners hide collusions enough to lower players salaries and risk lawsuit especially with the increase in revenue and team valuations.
So far, most teams have looked at the contract year performance as a guide to how much and how long. Soto was great last year. But when you get someone who is transcendent, it’s just a question of how many bidders. It’s not likely going to be a “value” signing. And there are very few players, including the historical greats, who never had an off season or one in which they were out with injury most of the season.
Yes. It is a big risk, paying someone big money based on past performance. Why? To me, it’s gotta be a big time mental adjustment for the player. Ya know, new team and most often your new earnings are at the top of player payroll. Oh, the pressure to perform. Here in Baltimore, Tyler O’Neil suddenly finds himself as top dog pay wise. And, he ain’t doing no good. More a mental struggle than physical?
If you want a point of reference for Soto, see Lindor. Soto is not on a one year deal. Plenty of long term free agents struggle in their first year with a new organization. While it is a data point, it should never get more credence than it deserves.
Pitchers know how to get Error in Judgement out. They just save it for the postseason when it really matters. Is he worth the big contract? Of course, because he gets you to the postseason. But pitching to him is not rocket science.
I think Soto is a much more complete hitter and will be more likely to have success in the postseason. His current struggles become data points to be assessed and utilized moving forward.
Success at the major league level over time is nothing more than making the proper adjustments against the competition.
“nothing more than making the proper adjustments against the competition”. No.
Being comfortable and confident within your abilities regardless of the moment is the key. Judge dropping the ball in the 5th inning of game 6th WS last year as an example. Come on now. I say he was feeling it. Also in that inning, while the rest of his teammates were playing small ball per the game plan instructions. Ohtani wiffs swinging for the fences. Feeling that pressure!?
Seems like Nick Martinez would command more than a bunch of the players on the honorable mention list. He’s older so will be limited to 2-3 years at most but he’ll be free of the QO penalty.
Tucker and Valdez would be my targets if I were a GM. Tucker for obvious reasons – 5 tool player and Valdez because he ‘pitches’ and I wouldn’t be concerned with his arm, despite his age.
LA does not have a clear front runner in their system to take over for Muncy at 3rd base. If Bregman decides to opt out……….
Fans haven’t forgotten the 2017 trash cans. Dodgers front office is pretty cold-blooded but I think even they will rule that out.
Cheering for Tucker to go 40/40
Nick Martinez should probably be at least listed in “others receiving votes.” IMO.