Lucas Giolito Unlikely To Pitch Again This Season

Right-hander Lucas Giolito is likely out for the year with an elbow injury, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). The elbow issue had already kept Giolito off the Wild Card roster. It will now seemingly cost him the rest of 2025. Cora told reporters that rookie Connelly Early will likely draw the starting nod in Game 3 against the Yankees, if needed.

The elbow injury will bring an untimely end to a resurgent season for Giolito. The 31-year-old shuffled between three different MLB organizations in 2023, posting a 4.88 ERA across 33 starts with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians. He then missed the entirety of the 2024 season following surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito bounced back with a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts with the Red Sox this season. His 4.59 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA suggest he performed above his head, but his contributions helped solidify a staff that dealt with injuries all year.

Boston inked Giolito to a two-year deal ahead of the 2024 season, with the second season being a player option. After missing the entire year, Giolito picked up the option. By triggering that player option, he gave the club a $14MM option for 2026, though with a vesting clause that would convert it to a $19MM mutual option if Giolito reached 140 innings pitched. He exceeded that mark in his second-to-last outing of the regular season. Giolito seemed destined to decline his end of the option and return to free agency, but the elbow injury could lead Boston to reject it on their end.

If either side balks at the mutual option, Giolito would enter free agency in a peculiar position. He’d be coming off his best season in terms of run prevention since his breakout 2019. While he fell short of the above-average strikeout numbers he posted during his White Sox tenure, Giolito cleaned up the home run issues that plagued him in his wayward 2023 season. On the other hand, this is the second elbow problem in two years for Giolito. Even if this specific injury is minor, anything elbow-related is a red flag, especially for a pitcher who will be 32 years old next summer.

Early starting a playoff game would’ve seemed like a long shot heading into the season, but he’s now the clear top candidate to fill Giolito’s vacated spot. The rookie has impressed in four big-league starts, allowing two earned runs or less in every outing. He burst onto the scene with 11 strikeouts against the Athletics in his debut and has continued to rack up punchouts at an above-average clip. After posting a strikeout rate above 30% at each minor league stop, he’s at 36.7% through 19 1/3 innings with the Red Sox.

The Yankees will present a challenging task for the young lefty, especially in what would be a series-deciding game. New York led the league in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching in the regular season. They slugged 70 home runs off southpaws, matching the Dodgers for the league lead. The Yankees elected to roll out a lineup with just three left-handed hitters against Garrett Crochet in Game 1. That starting nine does not feature Jazz Chisholm Jr. While a strict platoon between Chisholm and righty Amed Rosario seems unlikely, New York appears willing to play matchups in this series. It’s a tiny sample, but Early has struck out an absurd 13 of the 22 lefties he’s faced this season. He’s held left-handed hitters to a meager .150/.227/.150 slash line.

Kyle Harrison and Payton Tolle are also on hand as potential options to replace Giolito. Tolle also impressed in his MLB debut, striking out eight Pirates over 5 1/3 innings. He’s posted a 7.36 ERA since that outing and has been used in a relief role in recent outings. Harrison came over from San Francisco in the Rafael Devers trade. He spent the majority of the season with Triple-A Worcester, but did make three appearances for Boston in September. Harrison tossed a quality start against Tampa Bay in his penultimate outing and is likely the most stretched-out member of the bullpen.