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Lucas Giolito Unlikely To Pitch Again This Season

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9:02 pm: There is no structural damage to Giolito’s UCL, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. He is dealing with flexor irritation as well as a bone issue, which will require rest for a while.

3:51 pm: Right-hander Lucas Giolito is likely out for the year with an elbow injury, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). The elbow issue had already kept Giolito off the Wild Card roster. It will now seemingly cost him the rest of 2025. Cora told reporters that rookie Connelly Early will likely draw the starting nod in Game 3 against the Yankees, if needed.

The elbow injury will bring an untimely end to a resurgent season for Giolito. The 31-year-old shuffled between three different MLB organizations in 2023, posting a 4.88 ERA across 33 starts with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians. He then missed the entirety of the 2024 season following surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito bounced back with a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts with the Red Sox this season. His 4.59 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA suggest he performed above his head, but his contributions helped solidify a staff that dealt with injuries all year.

Boston inked Giolito to a two-year deal ahead of the 2024 season, with the second season being a player option. After missing the entire year, Giolito picked up the option. By triggering that player option, he gave the club a $14MM option for 2026, though with a vesting clause that would convert it to a $19MM mutual option if Giolito reached 140 innings pitched. He exceeded that mark in his second-to-last outing of the regular season. Giolito seemed destined to decline his end of the option and return to free agency, but the elbow injury could lead Boston to reject it on their end.

If either side balks at the mutual option, Giolito would enter free agency in a peculiar position. He’d be coming off his best season in terms of run prevention since his breakout 2019. While he fell short of the above-average strikeout numbers he posted during his White Sox tenure, Giolito cleaned up the home run issues that plagued him in his wayward 2023 season. On the other hand, this is the second elbow problem in two years for Giolito. Even if this specific injury is minor, anything elbow-related is a red flag, especially for a pitcher who will be 32 years old next summer.

Early starting a playoff game would’ve seemed like a long shot heading into the season, but he’s now the clear top candidate to fill Giolito’s vacated spot. The rookie has impressed in four big-league starts, allowing two earned runs or less in every outing. He burst onto the scene with 11 strikeouts against the Athletics in his debut and has continued to rack up punchouts at an above-average clip. After posting a strikeout rate above 30% at each minor league stop, he’s at 36.7% through 19 1/3 innings with the Red Sox.

The Yankees will present a challenging task for the young lefty, especially in what would be a series-deciding game. New York led the league in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching in the regular season. They slugged 70 home runs off southpaws, matching the Dodgers for the league lead. The Yankees elected to roll out a lineup with just three left-handed hitters against Garrett Crochet in Game 1. That starting nine does not feature Jazz Chisholm Jr. While a strict platoon between Chisholm and righty Amed Rosario seems unlikely, New York appears willing to play matchups in this series. It’s a tiny sample, but Early has struck out an absurd 13 of the 22 lefties he’s faced this season. He’s held left-handed hitters to a meager .150/.227/.150 slash line.

Kyle Harrison and Payton Tolle are also on hand as potential options to replace Giolito. Tolle also impressed in his MLB debut, striking out eight Pirates over 5 1/3 innings. He’s posted a 7.36 ERA since that outing and has been used in a relief role in recent outings. Harrison came over from San Francisco in the Rafael Devers trade. He spent the majority of the season with Triple-A Worcester, but did make three appearances for Boston in September. Harrison tossed a quality start against Tampa Bay in his penultimate outing and is likely the most stretched-out member of the bullpen.

Red Sox Release Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox announced that they have released right-hander Walker Buehler. That the corresponding move for the Sox to select prospect Payton Tolle, a move which was reported yesterday. The Sox also optioned outfielder Jhostynxon García and recalled infielder Nick Sogard. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Buehler’s release prior to the official announcement.

The Sox signed Buehler to a one-year, $21.05MM deal in the offseason. That was a bet on a bounceback. Buehler had been an ace earlier in his career with the Dodgers. He finished 9th in National League Cy Young voting in 2019 and then fourth in 2021. However, he required Tommy John surgery in 2022, the second of his career. He was back on the mound in 2024 but wasn’t as sharp, posting a 5.38 earned run average.

He didn’t have a ton of momentum going into free agency but helped his cause somewhat with a decent playoff performance. He tossed 15 innings in the postseason last year with a 3.60 ERA, including getting the final outs in Game Five against the Yankees.

The Sox pushed in some chips with the hope of Buehler being better in 2025 but it didn’t pay off. He made 22 starts for the Sox with a 5.40 ERA, almost an exact match for his regular season work last year. He only struck out 16.5% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 10.8% clip. He averaged 94 miles per hour on his fastball, one tick below last year and a few ticks below his prime, when he was in the 96-97 mph range.

Clearly, the Sox ran out of patience. He was bumped to the bullpen a week ago. He made one long relief appearance on Sunday. They could have kept him around as a long reliever but rosters expand in September, giving every club an extra arm and a bit less need for someone to be on mop-up duty.

By cutting Buehler loose now, they are giving him a chance to land somewhere else. He will be postseason eligible with a new club as long as he joins that new organization prior to September 1st. Given his performance and the roughly $3.4MM left on his contract, it feels unlikely that anyone would claim him off release waivers. The waiver process takes 48 hours. It’s unclear when exactly the Sox started that process. If they did it after last night’s game, perhaps Buehler could be a free agent by Saturday night. That would give him about 24 hours to sign somewhere else. If they are just putting him on the wire now, then the timeline is tighter, though it’s likely that his agent will be fielding calls from interested clubs while the waiver process plays out.

Assuming he does clear waivers, the Sox will remain on the hook for what remains of that salary. Another club could sign him and would only have to pay him the prorated portion of the major league minimum salary, with that amount subtracted from what the Sox pay. For a contending club need to patch a rotation hole, they might be tempted to take a free look at Buehler and hope to strike gold.

For the Sox, they are going into the stretch in decent position. They have a record of 75-60. They are just 3.5 games back of the Blue Jays in the American League East. They have the top Wild Card spot and are 5.5 games ahead of the Royals, the top non-playoff team in the A.L. With still a lot of meaningful games left, they have decided Buehler isn’t one of their horses. They head into the final few weeks of the season with Garrett Crochet as their clear ace, backed up by Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello and Dustin May. They are giving Tolle a shot at taking a spot and also have Kyle Harrison in Triple-A, if needed.

Photos courtesy of Brian Fluharty, Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images

Red Sox To Promote Payton Tolle

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The Red Sox will call up pitching prospect Payton Tolle to make his big league debut tomorrow, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’ll be a fantastic pitching matchup, as he goes against Paul Skenes in a series opener at Fenway Park. Skenes will coincidentally be matched against a pitcher making his MLB debut for the second straight outing, as the Rockies tabbed McCade Brown as his opponent last weekend.

It’s the latest step in a breakout season for Tolle. Boston signed the 6’6″ southpaw to a $2MM bonus after drafting him in the second round out of TCU last summer. They kept him at their complex in his draft year rather than assigning him to a minor league affiliate. That allowed them to manage his innings going into this year.

The Sox certainly didn’t expect Tolle would be in the big leagues a year later. He began this season in High-A, striking out 38% of opponents over 11 appearances. That earned him a move to Double-A in June. Tolle pitched his way past that level within six weeks, recording a 1.67 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 27 innings. He has been at Triple-A Worcester for all of three weeks.

Tolle hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down at the top minor league level. He has fanned 17 hitters with a pair of walks in his first 15 Triple-A frames. Opponents have swung through 14% of his offerings in his three starts. Tolle’s fastball has sat in the 95-96 MPH range. He also uses a low-90s cutter, a slider, curveball and changeup among a deep arsenal.

Along the way, Tolle has vaulted towards the top of the organization’s prospect rankings. He’s second in the system at Baseball America behind Marcelo Mayer. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him third among Sox prospects and 71st overall when he updated his Top 100 list shortly before the trade deadline. (Mayer had graduated from the FanGraphs list, where Tolle was behind Franklin Arias and Kyson Witherspoon.) Last week, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked Tolle as a top 35 overall prospect and had him second after Arias in the system.

While the 22-year-old has certainly impressed evaluators, the aggressive promotion is also related to Boston’s rotation woes. Walker Buehler pitched his way out of the starting five and is locked into a bullpen role for the rest of the season. Richard Fitts appeared to get the first opportunity to replace Buehler, but he came out of Monday’s game with arm discomfort. He’s on the 15-day injured list with arm neuritis. Swingman Cooper Criswell landed on the minor league injured list last week.

The Sox needed to promote a fifth starter. The decision came down to Tolle versus Kyle Harrison. The latter is already on the 40-man roster and seemed to be the favorite for the job. Harrison has still yet to get a look from the Sox since they acquired him as the headliner of the Rafael Devers return. He has a solid 3.65 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts, but he’s walked nearly 12% of opposing hitters with a league average 21.5% strikeout rate. Boston evidently feels Tolle gives them a better shot to win.

Dustin May had been lined up for Friday’s turn through the rotation. He’ll move back a day and take the ball against Johan Oviedo on Saturday. Lucas Giolito will pitch the series finale with Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet on turn for the first two games of next week’s series against the Guardians. Tolle would be lined up for the final game of that set if he gets a second start.

Boston will select his contract tomorrow. They can open a 40-man roster spot by moving Mayer to the 60-day injured list. He underwent season-ending wrist surgery earlier this month. They will need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher. Assuming they don’t want to designate Buehler for assignment, they’ll probably option southpaw Brennan Bernardino back to Triple-A. Teams will be able to carry a 14th pitcher beginning on September 1.

The Red Sox are now committed to carrying Tolle on the 40-man throughout the offseason. That’s the biggest roster consideration, as he would not have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Tolle will not reach 45 days on an MLB roster this year. He’ll remain a rookie going into next season, keeping open the possibility of earning the Sox a future draft pick if they carry him for a full service year in 2026. Tolle will certainly meet the prospect criteria to be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

Latest On Red Sox’s Rotation

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The Red Sox placed Richard Fitts on the 15-day injured list on Tuesday afternoon. The righty is dealing with arm neuritis. Fitts had stepped into a bulk role out of the bullpen on Monday. The Sox needed to replace Walker Buehler in the rotation after moving him to relief last week.

Fitts’ injury again leaves that spot in question. Manager Alex Cora confirmed they’re not going to reverse course on Buehler’s move to relief (link via Tim Healey of The Boston Globe). That means they’ll need to bring someone up for Saturday’s start against the Pirates. Cooper Criswell went on the minor league injured list last week. That leaves Kyle Harrison as the only healthy depth starter on the 40-man roster.

Harrison started tonight’s game with Triple-A Worcester. However, the Sox removed him after three innings and 38 pitches. That’d appear to tip their hand that they’re viewing Harrison as the choice for Saturday. He’d be on three days rest but that should be sufficient recovery time after today’s abbreviated outing.

The southpaw has been on optional assignment since the Sox acquired him as the centerpiece of the Rafael Devers return. He has a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts for Worcester, though he’s averaging less than five innings per appearance. Tonight’s deliberately brief outing is part of that, but Harrison has continued to struggle with pitch efficiency. That has been the question with Harrison, who has above-average stuff and strikeout potential while issuing a lot of free passes. The 24-year-old had started four of eight MLB appearances with San Francisco earlier this year, allowing a 4.56 ERA through 23 2/3 frames.

The most exciting alternative would be to turn to the organization’s top pitching prospect, Payton Tolle. Asked about a potential Tolle promotion, Cora said the Sox “haven’t talked about that” to this point (relayed by Christopher Smith of MassLive). Tolle is scheduled to start for Worcester on Thursday, so Boston would need to scratch him from that appearance to bring him up.

It’d be an aggressive promotion, as the 22-year-old was bumped up from Double-A less than three weeks ago. Tolle has recorded 17 strikeouts against two walks while allowing six earned runs across 15 innings through a trio of Triple-A starts. He has a cumulative 3.04 ERA while punching out nearly 37% of batters faced between three levels this year.

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