This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.
Sam asks:
Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)
Hugh asks:
Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?
It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument. That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams. Go for it!" They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.
I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.
Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year. Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.
Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today. His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain. Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.
If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May. This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see. As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.
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I dont know why this site is obsessed with the Cardinals lowering their payroll. Its weird.
Even if Paredes at 2B turned out to be viable, they’d sill have an outfield logjam thanks to the Jesus Sanchez acquisition. They definitely won’t want to reduce Cam Smith to short-side platoon duty next year, and you also now have Zach Cole exploding onto the scene, who might have more upside than any of them. And also Zach Dezenzo who can play all 4 corners and looked promising at the plate before getting injured. Trading Walker is definitely the cleanest way to make it work, I would think they could get a reasonable return if they’re willing to eat part of his contract.
In a world where Pete Alonso doesn’t return to the Mets, I would take Walker’s 2/$40 contract for the 1/$17 million remaining on the Montas contract.
Save money in 2026 and 2027.