This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.
Sam asks:
Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)
Hugh asks:
Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?
It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument. That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams. Go for it!" They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.
I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.
Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year. Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.
Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today. His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain. Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.
If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May. This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see. As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.
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I dont know why this site is obsessed with the Cardinals lowering their payroll. Its weird.
I agree!!!
It’s obvious —- to bring “Fans back in the Stands” to St. Louis — The Cardinals are going to have to spend money on Quality Players —- trade prospects for Quality Players
—- and eat some salary on players like Contreras……. And possibly the same with Arenado & Sonny Gray to trade for other quality players or quality prospects.
If the Cardinals don’t obtain any Quality Name Players for 2026 for Fans to come watch play the game ——— the Cardinals low attendance marks set in 2025 will be lower in 2026.
Currently —- the Cardinals players on their 26 man roster —- are not worth the price of admission to go watch.
What makes that even worse, is the rumor that ticket prices are going up for 2026.
If that is the case, it insures lower attendance in 2026 —- (Without the additions of any new Quality players).
I think it’s because they have a glut of massively overpaid vets.
They really dont have many overpaid vets. Gray sure but his deal was backloaded. Arenados deal gets cheaper the next couple years if he bounces back the first half of 2026 he could actually have positive trade value. Contreras is paid well but its not an overpay. And after those guys thats it. Nobody else is making any real money on the team besides those guys.
And Mikolas, who is gone after this year, which will lower the payroll. Also, Arenado will be 35 and would have to produce a 4+ win season to be worth his contract next season even with it being slightly lower in 2026. They will have to eat at least half of his contract to move it if they want anything other than a bag of used baseballs in return. Contreras is definitely worth his contract even after a move to 1B.
Players can still have positive trade value while being overpaid to a certain degree.
Not following…these were questions from subscribers?
And you chose which questions to write about. That was a choice by your team of writers.
Your site seems to think you can will the Cardinals into a rebuild the same way you tried to will Brian Roberts into being a Cub years ago. But you cant.
The Cardinals are not rebuilding. They didnt trade anyone away last offseason. They only traded rentals away at the deadline. All the evidence points to a team not rebuilding yet you keep pumping out this nonsense narrative. And you are doing it because you are a Cubs fan you and Nick Deeds. Thats lame buddy. Its lame.
Yeah, even if the Cardinals don’t increase payroll significantly again as expected (even if not all the way back to what it was in 2024), they have no reason to cut their payroll even further, especially after saving a few million with their deadline trades this year.
Yeah Mikolas and Fedde are both gone. Helsley was making decent money hes gone. This idea that the Cardinals are trying to dump salary is completely made up.
Right- they definitely didn’t try to trade Arenado. And Gray definitely didn’t say he would invoke his no trade clause last pre-season. Nope. Nothing to see here.
They tried to trade Arenado BECAUSE HE ASKED TO BE TRADED. They didnt try to trade anyone else. Thats the truth but this site likes to manipulate rumors and facts regarding the Cardinals.
The Cardinals came to a mutual agreement with both Gray and Contreras. Both sides agreed that they would stay.
@Joel You have been asked numerous times, please post a link showing anything quoting Arenado’s request to be traded.
Actually—— And Unfortunately —-
“Bill DeWitt III” is the actual culprit who stated —— “2026 ticket prices were going up”. He also stated —— as reported on the MLB Radio Network —- The “Owners were not raising salary over the existing payroll of 2025”.
Since it’s been reported the Cardinals salaries are down $40 million under 2024, DeWitt III has indicated 2026 salaries would be less than 2025!!!
Chaim Bloom will have “No Money” to work with to improve the Cardinals roster for 2026!!!
Unless the Owners change their minds and give Chaim Bloom a free reign to improve the 26 man roster the way he sees fit to make the Cardinals Competitive once more—-
OK, fair enough about not raising payroll, but not raising it is still different from cutting payroll even further.
Obviously, there will still be some money to work with just from what they’re already saving from their deadline deals and letting Mikolas walk in free agency. Yeah, Gray and the remaining members of the arbitration class will get raises, but that will be partly balanced by Arenado’s pay cut (and even more if he’s actually traded this time, even if the Cardinals have to eat some of it).
Actually, come to think of it, not only did they save extra money with their deadline trades, but those players full salaries are coming off the books next year, as well! Helsley and Maton weren’t making much, relatively speaking, but they save a whole bunch by not needing to pay Matz or Fedde next year, in addition to Mikolas coming off the books as I previously mentioned.
Even if Paredes at 2B turned out to be viable, they’d sill have an outfield logjam thanks to the Jesus Sanchez acquisition. They definitely won’t want to reduce Cam Smith to short-side platoon duty next year, and you also now have Zach Cole exploding onto the scene, who might have more upside than any of them. And also Zach Dezenzo who can play all 4 corners and looked promising at the plate before getting injured. Trading Walker is definitely the cleanest way to make it work, I would think they could get a reasonable return if they’re willing to eat part of his contract.
That’s not a bad idea. Astros are definitely gonna have a rotation hole to fill, even if it’s not that specific scenario something along those lines could be mutually beneficial.
The Orioles need for 2026 is the same it has been for decades: Quality starting pitching. Getting a bona fide ace. The last time they did this was trading for Corbin Burnes, and lo and behold, they had an amazing season.
Burnes walked in free agency, which everyone thought was going to happen before he made his want for being close to home was made. Why? Because the Orioles are cheap and won’t pay front line starter money for a front line starting pitcher. The issue was, they had no backup plan.
They banked on the hype of their own in house arms which consisted of 3 injury prone guys. To help out with this, they brought in a soft tosser from Japan who would be a back of the rotation arm and elder statesman Charlie Morton, another back of the rotation arm. You had a rotation full of #4 and #5 starters and look what happened.
Of course the team was also decimated by injuries, probably the worst season for that in Orioles history, but even if the position players had not gone down, this is not a team that was built for a deep post season run, if they even managed to get there.
So what is needed is clear. They need an ace, and then an actual #2 starter, and then allow the scrap heaps they have in house to battle for the last 3 spots of the rotation.
This is honestly a great explanation of the 2025 Orioles. Criticisms were backed up with realistic solutions.
@ED The Orioles offered Burnes 4/$180M. That would ve been record $45M AAV for a starting pitcher.
Not sure how offering a record deal is “unwilling to pay”.
That report came after Burnes already signed in Arizona, and they KNEW he wasn’t going to accept that because they KNEW he wanted to pitch close to home. That was just like the “Confederate money” claim that was floated years ago. The Orioles expected people to come here for less than what better teams were offering. It was a safe, save face offer.
When the report came is irrelevant, the offer came prior to ARI’s offer. Just because it was reported and you heard it later does not change what happened in reality.
You are just arbitrarily making things to try and fit your narrative. When they offered a record $45M AAV they did not know he would turn it down, a 4 year deal of that size had never been offered to a pitcher so what a pitcher would do when said offer was made was unprecedented at the time….
They KNEW he was going to turn it down because he stated he wanted to pitch close to home. Baltimore is not close to his home. He said the offer would have to blow him out of the water to change his mind. This is reality.
This isn’t “my narrative,” this is what happened. They always do this.
Tigers-I’m with Ed (by the way, that’s not my burner account!)
This happens frequently with the Orioles, including twice last winter when you hear about them making great offers that aren’t accepted or don’t go through.
One was Burnes, making a large offer they already knew he wouldn’t accept. The other you heard terms about was a 3 yr/33M offer that they supposedly “had on the table” for Jeff Hoffman but yanked due to medicals. They pivoted to Andrew Kittredge (1 yr, 9M with 1 yr option for same). Ironically, Kittredge immediately got hurt, Toronto was happy to sign Hoffman, who’s been the closer for the 1st place club all year. Otherwise you hear about how the Orioles are “in” on other guys yet never seem to be the team to land them.
Happens too frequently to be a coincidence.
Kittredge has a higher bWAR on the season than Hoffman, FYI. I know you’re talking about medicals, but the O’s are hardly the first team to not sign someone based on medical results (see Carlos Correa).
The fact that they don’t publicly discuss negotiations is the reason it “happens too frequently.” Did you hear that they were in on O’Neill? Sugano? Morton? Sanchez? Nah. Not saying those players all panned out, but you also never heard about anything until they actually signed.
@Thorton And just how did they know he would not accept it? Just because you make a baseless claim, it does not make it true.
Tigers-because it was already known publicly that he preferred to be close to home. Surely his agent and the team had already had those discussions in depth.
If you don’t think there was a nod-nod, wink-wink agreement that the Orioles would make a huge, unprecedented offer and it would not be accepted, while Burnes’ camp already had their plan in mind, then you’ve never been in business. Both Burnes and the team come out looking good as a result.
Kittredge missed the first quarter of the season.
The Orioles are not the first team to not sign for medicals, but they are certainly widely regarded as by far the most stringent on this for more than a decade.
The Orioles were “in on” Cease at least 2x over the past year, Crochet, and several other big names that they didn’t get. Those you heard publicly, multiple times as the rumors went round about which teams were after them. No one probably followed up on a 41 year old guy who was assumed to retire, a back up catcher, a pitcher from Japan who wasn’t clamoring to come over, and General Soreness.
RedFraggle-
Just looking back at MLBTR history.
Only 1 article (11/7) linking O’Neill to the Orioles prior to him signing there in Dec. It was a speculative “logical fit” not an actual “has been linked to” rumor. But that was the ONLY article linking him to another team from the end of 2024 until he signed. Previous articles debated if O’Neill would be offered and accept the QO or would go for something like $42M/3 years, instead the Orioles shell out more.
By contrast, 6-7 articles leading up to this year’s trade deadline just in July discussed Cease. There were also at least 16-17 articles in the last offseason alone. Teams linked to Cease. Who would be a good fit for Cease. The latest on Cease rumors. What would it take for the Padres to part with Cease. Here’s a poll about which team will end up with Cease. I just wished the articles would cease.
The coverage is very disparate between hot players and also-rans like O’Neill, Morton, Sugano, Sanchez.
So basically you are arbitrarily speculating and have nothing of evidentiary value to substantiate your claim and to change what has been reported. Got it…
Corbin Burnes discusses Orioles tenure, 2024-2025 offseason talks share.google/RlfYtaLt4R4p2BFYd
Burnes himself saying he was in contact with Orioles UNTIL DBacks negotiations heated up. He was no longer in contact with Orioles in that last 72 HRs, thats per Burnes. Sorry gotta take his word on this one.
With you 100% (and was saying all year).
My impression of the 2025 season will always be Elias giggling at the winter meetings interviews about moving the left field wall in because he signed the great Tyler O’Neill and tremendous Gary Sanchez. I even remember watching a TV analyst go “what are the Orioles doing? They need pitching! Are they sleeping through the rest of the winter meetings?”
Meanwhile, other teams were busy signing pitchers. Two mid level prospects could have gotten them Luzardo. Fried and/or Pivetta were there for less than what they ultimately ended up paying for Morton, Sugano, Gibson (and throw in Mateo, he’s useless).
At least the Orioles are (hopefully) over their 2010s fetish for signing home run hitters. They have trade bait. They could make a deal for a starting pitcher or at least sign a 2/3 starter in free agency and maybe a 4/5. Kremer and Rogers and (again, hopefully) Gray-Rod can comprise the rest of the staff.
Lowenstein, they must be, since they won’t have a single guy finish with more than 20 HR (though Laureano has more than 20 including his Padres activity).
But something’s up with the coaching with the prolonged tailspins (can’t call them slumps) from so many young stars. Gunnar should be going for 40 HR, not under 20. Westburg…if he was healthy…was on pace for 30. Holliday next year should develop to 20-25. Cowser and Adley should hit 20 if they do the opposite of what track they’re on now. Beavers and Basallo you could reasonably project to become 20+ HR guys.
My rotation take:
Bradish, Rogers, and Kremer have rotation spots if healthy. Gray-Rod (if ever healthy) and Wells are bullpen/spot starters/injury replacements.
Two #1/#2 starters obtained vault this rotation to be dominant, and makes the Orioles favorites.
One #1 starter and a mid-rotation guy is a huge step up and makes them competitive. Not dominant, but significantly better. This is also reasonable financially.
Getting more bottom end guys (they already have Kremer, Povich, Suarez, etc.) won’t help. They tried that this year and it couldn’t have blown up much worse.
Gore has a career ERA of 4.14, Keller 4.50. Those guys are looked at as positive trade value guys. Yet Sugano is solid with a 4.39 and he is constantly referred to like he is trash. I do not understand the hatred for pitchers like him. Some guys achieve results differently and don’t for the stat mold. They can still be effective. Sugano is a very solid 4/5 and in today’s market has lived up to his contract.
Very good article btw, lot of content covered. Brings value to your plus content.
It isn’t hate and it isn’t trashing on him. It is valid criticism and you agree with me that he’s a good 4/5 starter. But, that’s not the role the O’s signed him for. They had him slated as their #2 behind Grayson Rodriguez. That’s where the problem lies.
Number 2? Ummmm… nope. The expected pecking order was Rodriguez, Eflin, Morton with Kremer and Sugano battling it out for the fourth and fifth positions in the rotation. There was even talk of Povich, after his strong finish in 2024, possibly pushing Sugano to the pen. Sugano was NEVER planned to be the number 2 guy in the rotation.
You can believe what you like.
MBA is right…
Again, you can believe what you want.
@Ed, “believe” what you will. It only takes a quick Google search for articles published at time of signing to answer the question of how Baltimore expected Sugano to fit onto the roster.
If a published article said it was a great idea to jump off a bridge, would you do it?
You can believe what you want to. I deal in the reality of the situation. We all saw what happened. Now are you going to tell me that I can’t believe my own eyes?
@Ed, I’m confused. Are you trying to argue that Baltimore expected a #2 when they added him (your first comment in this thread) or that they currently view him as a #2 starter (supported by your comments that we need only look at what has happened)? You seem determined to ignore actual evidence in either direction in favor of bland comments that have no conviction outside of being contrarian.
I am not responsible for your confusion, and I also don’t have to answer for it or to it. I am not being a contrarian simply because I disagree with what you think. and what you believe, because those things are flawed. If you consider the truth to be bland, then so be it. The truth is rarely exciting.
Ah I see. you have no evidence so you just fall back onto the old defense of “my opinion I won’t listen to opposing ideas.” Fair enough. Enjoy your fandom! I imagine every season is a massive disappointment for you with that mindset.
To be fair, I had slotted Sugano ahead of Morton at the time but it was a close call, as the #3 but also assumed that Rodriguez would be hurt again.
After Rodriguez went down in ST, Sugano could have been called the de-facto #2. I read several articles about the rotation and they interchanged Sugano and Morton behind Rodriguez and Eflin to start the season, so neither of you are wrong. I didn’t see any ranking Povich ahead of Morton and Sugano before the season.
But a huge gap between being #2 on the 2025 Orioles rotation and being a #2 starter….the Orioles rotation itself was a big, stinking #2 the first couple months of the season.
And that’s the problem, it wasn’t good enough. Had they spent for Pivetta and traded 2 mid prospects for Luzardo they could have chosen between Morton or Sugano and gone into the season with:
Rodriguez (injured), Pivetta, Eflin, Luzardo, Morton/Sugano, Kremer.
That rotation would have gotten off much better than 16-34.
If they had 6, they would have left Kremer on the back end to eat innings like he does (he’s becoming the “veterans innings eater” guy) and put Morton/Sugano in the pen.
I am listening to opposing ideas, I am just not AGREEING with them, and that’s your problem. You seem to have this notion that I have to agree with you just because you said something. I could make the same accusation that you did. “You aren’t listening to me, so you’re wrong!”
I have provided plenty of evidence for what I have claimed. But you are doing your best bird impression, and sadily is isn’t an oriole, but another bird that begins with the letter “O,” an ostrich. You are just burying your head in the sand and ignoring it because it clearly shows a different point of view that shows you that you’re actually incorrect.
No, not fair enough. There is nothing fair in your dealings with somebody that won’t blindly follow what you simply state as a fact, which actually isn’t a fact, and somebody that can stand up to you, rebut you, and leave you with nothing but petty insults and incessant doubling down on your own ignorance as if it is a strength.
Yes, my Orioles fandom has been rather disappointing for most of my life. Seeing them be the absolute joke of MLB for about a decade, and then see them finally follow a program and actually get homegrown, good talent, and watching it get wasted by not getting any pitching, and then letting it walk away for peanuts in trades. And we’re watching it happen again..so far. They can prove me wrong by going out and obtaining an actual ace pitcher, whether via free agency or trade. I won’t write off 2026 while it is still the 2025 season and no moves can be made.
Let me ask you this. Would you consider this following rotation good enough to go into a deep playoff run:
Trevor Rogers
Grayson Rodriguez
Kyle Bradish
Tyler Wells
Chace McDermott/Cade Povich/other minor league or in house arm
There is a chance they bring Eflin back, but even if you add him in as the #1 or #2, you can give an opinion on that as well.
Glad somebody understands.
I’m not going to pretend to be some expert on valuation of pitchers, but Sugano is nearly 36 years old with exactly one MLB season under his belt. He did just fine in my book. Whereas Keller just turned 30 and has a history of solid work with 2025 being an excellent season for him, now pitching in relief. And then there is Gore who has had the splashiest season of your selected three players and remains under team control for multiple years via arbitration.
If my Diamondbacks wanted to add all three to their 2026 roster, I’d gladly take each one, but I would value them differently. Gore would be most desireable but acquisition cost in future value would limit my excitement. Keller would be an exciting bullpen arm to dream on, but 30 seasons in, I know that relievers and Arizona never make sense. And Sugano would be a nice veteran rotation arm to have who’s biggest positive would be his influence on younger guys who will have similar stat lines but ideally good long careers after he has retired. “Positive Trade Value” is nice, but that doesn’t mean much unless a trade is likely and depends on so many factors other than just that player’s talent (history, future projections, control, cost of other players to fill that role, etc.)
Sugano would be a back end pitcher on a decent team. He’s not a top of the rotation starter which was his role here. That is the problem with the Orioles and has been all along. Morton is not a top of the rotation arm in his current form, but that’s what he was here. Eflin is not an ace. Trever Rogers, despite his performance this season (which is a severe outlier) is not an ace. Grayson Rodriguez can’t stay on the field. People think Bradish and Wells could be aces. This is the way a losing team thinks. This current collection of arms is not a playoff winning pitching staff.
Top of the rotation wasn’t his expected role though. It was one he happened into because of injury and regression. Lost seasons happen. Even to good teams. Not everyone gets to be the Dodgers and absorb this type of season without flinching. There’s a reason dynasties like the last decade of the Astros are so rare. Even the early 2010s SF dynasty looks suspect in hindsight; their pitching was great for a few years and then they all collapsed.
It’s kind of the whole reason people watch sports. If I knew exactly what was going to happen for my team on April 1 each year, I wouldn’t watch unless it was excellent.
I could tell you that banking on Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish to be part of a top three of a rotation was poor judgment. Expecting Eflin to be an ace, was also a mistake. Banking on Sugano and Morton to help step up in the rotation was also a mistake. I mean, you don’t have to be a baseball expert to see trends in baseball.
All the position players getting injured is the surprise, but not the pitching staff. If you didn’t see these injuries coming, then you just haven’t been paying attention.
It must be nice to just have all the answers after the fact….
Just because YOU misapplied certain terms or expectations to players the Orioles signed as free agents, doesn’t mean the team ever did the same. They banked on a solid rotation filled with a mix of young potential and veteran reliability. It didn’t work out that way. Oh well, onto 2026!
I said these things before the season started. There’s nothing after the fact here.
I have followed, studied and reported on this team for more years than you’ve probably been alive. I know the workings of this team. I am not Nostradamus. You can be spot on like me just by following the trends and patterns. There is no special talent. It is just called observation, paying attention, and understanding what you see.
The team let Burnes get away, which nobody expected they would sign back for his price tag alone. They had NO backup plan, and indeed, they never had one. They banked on their in house talent….again, even though 3 of the arms they wanted to rely on had injuries in the two previous seasons. Gee, what’s the chance that they’d get injured again? And we’re not talking a stubbed toe injury. We’re talking shoulder and elbow injuries. Red flag anyone?
Knowing this, they brought in two mid to bottom tier options and paid a pretty nice price tag for them, and yes, they weren’t giving them both $15 mil to sit at the back of the rotation. “Veteran reliability” on somebody that never pitched in MLB before, and a guy that’s 41 years old and clearly not the same as he used to be?
What a shocker that didn’t work out.
You all act like I have some kind of wizard-like ability. It is just common sense. Actually LOOK at what is happening, pay attention to it, and notice trends and patterns. All will become very clear.
Literally no one thinks you have wizard like ability. But your word choice shows your ego. Just in case anyone was confused about your earlier comments refusing to do any work to support your opinions.
If you’d care to show some receipts of your supposed perspective before the season, I’d happily read and debate. As is, all I see is a person who thinks age alone brings maturity refusing to participate in constructive conversation in favor of self-assured exceptionalism.
What conversation is there to have when you already insult me and tell me I am just flat out wrong.
And I don’t consider myself a wizard. It was a mocking jest. That you all can’t seem to believe that a normal person like myself could figure all this out on my own. I already gave you the evidence.
I don’t keep an archive of posts I make on comment sections. If you want to see the pre-season posts, go back and find them yourself.
Apparently your reading comprehension skills aren’t all that wonderful if you think I am calling myself exceptional. I’m not. I just pay attention, which is a skill anyone can use.
I offered you evidence to have a conversation, showing that your evaluation was inaccurate. You met that by telling me your opinion was different (not an opinion based concept, it was fact checkable) and then started to brag about yourself. So I met your energy. Sometimes it’s hard seeing yourself portrayed back at you…
I never bragged about myself, and just because you think and tell me I am wrong doesn’t mean I am wrong. You have an overinflated opinion of yourself, and it is ironic that you are trying to tell me that I do.
There’s nothing hard about you. You can’t possibly match my energy, and you can’t portray anything about me. I know you wish you could.
If you don’t like the facts, truth, and what I have to say, then just run along and don’t read or respond to my posts.
You have to look at Sugano differently before and after the league got a book on him.
1st 8 starts: 4-2, 2.72 ERA
20 starts since: 6-6, 5.14 ERA.
His early peripherals (lack of K’s, hard hit balls, etc.) bothered me, I also said let’s wait to see how he holds up in a hot Baltimore summer…though the “experts” told me I didn’t know what I was talking about.
I would not grade his last 20 starts as MLB quality. Its basically Povich.
Sugano gets hit hard (21 HR in 103 IP in that stretch) and doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, relying on contact to get guys out, but guys are getting the ball up in the air at a hard hit rate too much for him to be effective. He’s also averaging just over 5 IP per start in that stretch…which is again like Povich…and not the “back end veteran innings eater” you’d ideally slot there.
Ed’s right, from the moves this winter no one should have been shocked. That’s why I predicted 83-79 and probably not in on wild card – I said 30-40% chance – and was raked over the coals by all the “experts” who cited PECOTA giving 89 and pretty much all analysis saying winning the AL East or at least a wildcard. In fact, I correlated the 1985 Orioles team as being similar, they also went 83-79.
The “experts” on this site don’t like hearing “I told you so.” But even I ended up being optimistic.
(Spencer – not you specifically when I refer to “experts”…there are 4-5 who know who they are)
I don’t call myself an expert, either. I simply look at trends and patterns.
I was the one that said Mountcastle would not be a break-out hitter in MLB, and everyone crushed me for that one. Even MLB pundits said, “He can RAKE!”
I said he would be a .250-.270 batter, with low OBP, and around 20-25HR with a possible 30HR in a good year.
Am I some kind of savant? Not by any means. I simply looked at a very telling stat. BABIP. While Mounty was raking in the minors, he was able to produce a rather sustainable .380ish BABIP.
That wasn’t going to translate in the majors. Why? Because the dude doesn’t walk, and he strikes out quite a bit. Meaning there’s a hole in the swing somewhere, and he’s not very selective. Major league pitchers know how to attack your weaknesses much better than you’ll see even at AAA.
Now, all that being said, is a .250 20-25HR hitter bad in MLB? No. Not at all. But he doesn’t offer you anything else. He’s a 1B, so he’s not really giving you much value there. He doesn’t have speed, so he’s not an asset there. He doesn’t get on base, so there’s no value there. He would be a good supplemental bat on a good team, but clearly not a superstar and not worth a huge contract.
Watching a pitcher get injured with rather severe injuries for two straight seasons in a row, and then suggesting they would get injured again isn’t some stroke of genius, it is called common sense.
What nobody saw, was all the injuries to the position players. Aside from being suspicious of O’Neill’s health history, there wasn’t much to suggest all the crazy stuff that happened to the O’s position players this season.
I think suggesting the O’s would have been somewhere around a slightly above .500 team had everyone outside of O’Neill remaining mostly healthy, was very reasonable.
1. Thanks, These are incredibly well researched and thoughtful answers to these questions.
2. Jeremy Pena is not the best shorstop in baseball this season. Witt and Perdomo are both having clearly better years and Trea Turner and Seager (even in limited playing time) have produced more. I don’t disagree that with Pena the Astros are set at SS. But he’s not #1.
3. Schwarber is not on a HOF trajectory. As noted, he’s at 337 HR now, so he won’t even be at 400 until 2027 (assuming no work stoppage), so one should at least wait until then to even talk about it. But he’s 32, only has 20 career WAR, has only been an All-Star 3 times and has never finished higher than 15th in MVP voting.(he’ll be higher than that this season, although talk of him winning the award is absurd). Stanton is not really a great comp: Stanton had double the WAR of Schwarber by the time he was 28, won an MVP award and was second in MVP voting another time. The real comp should be Edgar Martinez, who was perceived to be the first true DH elected. Martinez had 68 career WAR and Schwarber is not coming close to that (in 2023, when he hit 47 HRs, Schwarber had 0.7 WAR). Schwarber’s best comp is Harold Baines, who is in the Hall with 38.8 WAR and only one season over 4 WAR (this will be Schwarber’s first season over 4 WAR).. But Baines doesn’t really belong in the Hall, if we put every player who was better than Baines (including, in my opinion, Schwarber) in the HOF, it wouldn’t be a Hall anymore, we’d need a living room, dining room and several additions.
Bronxlou – Stanton and Schwarber are actually similar, except Stanton’s career is really front loaded and Schwarber’s more back loaded. Both are going to be very interesting HOF cases.
When Stanton got traded to the Yankees, he was a no-doubter. He already had 267 HR at age 28, an MVP, 2 HR titles, an RBI title, and 1 MVP and 1 runner-up.
The Yankees career has merely been good, and injury-riddled. if he plays out his contract to the end and stays somewhat healthy he tops .500 HR and 2000 hits. Does that get him HOF?
Schwarber was decent on the Cubs and excellent since leaving. While a lower batting avg than Stanton, he walks more. And K’s more. He has 2 HR titles, an RBI title, and probably will be top 3 MVP (though I don’t know how the award doesn’t go to Ohtani just because he’s Ohtani).
He’s going to play at least 3-4 more years. If he continues somewhat near where he is, he may also be at 500 HR and approaching 2000 hits. Same question applies.
So Stanton had the Andruw Jones career track, and Jones got in. Schwarber has more of a Nelson Cruz track…if he played as long as Cruz he’s way over 500 HR and 2000 hits.