The Nationals announced today that catcher Harry Ford has been optioned to Triple-A Rochester while fellow backstop Riley Adams has been reassigned to minor league camp. That seems to set the stage for Keibert Ruiz and Drew Millas to be the club’s catching tandem at the beginning of the season.
The Nats have an interesting long-term catching mix. They acquired Ruiz from the Dodgers as part of the 2021 deal sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He and the club agreed to an extension in 2023, a deal which runs through 2030 and has club options for 2031 and 2032.
But since the start of 2024, he has poor defensive numbers and a .235/.266/.345 batting line. FanGraphs has considered him to be 1.3 wins below replacement level in that span. He was acquired and extended by the previous front office regime. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo was fired last year as the club’s rebuild failed to proceed as hoped.
Paul Toboni was hired to replace Rizzo. One of the first significant moves of his tenure was to trade reliever Jose A. Ferrer to the Mariners, with Ford being the headliner of the return. Ford is one of the top catching prospects in the league. Seattle drafted him 12th overall in 2021 and signed him to a bonus of $4.4MM. With Cal Raleigh locked in as the catcher in Seattle, it made sense for the Mariners to put Ford on the trade block. Presumably, the Nats hope Ford is their primary catcher in the long term.
Ford’s major league track record consists of just eight games so far. He got into 97 Triple-A games last year and put up a .283/.408/.460 line. Even in the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League, that was 25% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His defense was once considered questionable but he has made enough progress that he is expected by many evaluators to stick behind the plate for the long term.
Though Ford is still only 23 years old and lacking in experience, the Nats could have considered carrying him on the Opening Day roster due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive. He would have been PPI eligible if the Nats kept him on the active roster for long enough to earn a full year of service time. He could have then earned them an extra draft pick if he won Rookie of the Year or Most Valuable Player in his pre-arbitration seasons.
The Nats didn’t get a long look at him during Spring Training, as Ford joined the Great Britain team in the World Baseball Classic. He has only appeared in seven Grapefruit League contests, with a lackluster .214 /.353/.286 line in those.
For now, it seems the Nats will have Ford getting regular reps in the minors. That will give Ruiz a chance to continue as the regular catcher in the big leagues. Despite his recent struggles, it’s not out of the question for Ruiz to get back on track. He is only 27 years old and was able to be a league average hitter as of a few years ago.
If that doesn’t come to fruition, then it’s possible a time will come where Ford pushes for a regular role, which will get Ruiz bumped into being an overpaid backup. His contract isn’t especially onerous on an annual basis but there’s still quite a ways to go. He will make $5MM this year and next, followed by a salary of $7MM in 2028 and then $9MM in each of the final two years. That means he is still guaranteed $35MM over the next five years. The club options are valued at $12MM and $14MM, with no buyouts.
The timing of Ford’s eventual recall to the majors will impact his future earning power. He currently has 28 days of service time. If he spends about six weeks or more on optional assignment this year, he won’t be able to reach the one-year mark, which will push his path to free agency by a year. It also could impact when he qualifies for arbitration, depending on where the Super Two cutoff lands in future seasons.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
Ford’s stock looks bright, which is something you don’t hear often.
That Studebaker kid looks good too, I see him having a long future in the game.
Do you think in the history of American roadways, an Edsel has ever collided with a Pinto?
No. But maybe a pinto has with an edsel.
He’s needs to go to the Tigers. Tigers need a Ford because the Lions have a Tesla.
For some of the younger players, it seems playing in the WBC might have been a nice experience but may have cost them the opportunity to be seen by their ball club, to their detriment. I know their team approved it but it’s hard to give a good first impression if you are not in camp.
Ford isn’t a new commodity though.
You don’t think all 30 MLB teams had some of their baseball people watching the WBC? Great opportunity to scout out potential new players and also evaluate how their current ones can do on the big stage.
Watching the game on TV does not allow the insight of how a player conducts himself in camp, nor does it allow coaches to make suggestions and see how the player responds.
Don’t you know Duque Hebbert?
Tres Barrera is another quality option.
Three of them seems like overkill
Then they trade him to Detroit for a Ford Mustang Shelby in pristine condition. Ruby red with white Stripes down the middle. (Same car as 60 in Seconds aka Eleanor)
Should be name his first kid Shelby?
Or Tempo?
I still can’t believe the Nats got Ford for a largely mediocre reliever for his career.
The Nats seriously undervalued Ferrer and the Mariners already have a plan to turn him into the next Arthur Rhodes.
Mariners looked at him and thought “more sliders and a sweepr”. We’ll see how that goes. It obvious that as much as Ford’s trade value wasn’t as high as many expected, the Mariners really like Ferrer and think they can get more out of him.
His ERA has been mediocre but that’s not even scratching the surface. He has pitched better than what shows up on his baseball card. His FIP/xFIP/xERA are all at least a full run lower than his ERA, and he’s improved each year with his TTO rate stats. His K/9, HR/9, and BB/9 all have gotten better.
He gets a lot of groundballs, and we know the Nats have had a terrible infield defense. The Mariners, even with JP losing a step or three at SS, have a much better infield overall. I suspect that this is the #1 reason his ERA is high.
He’s clearly already a high leverage arm even without a gaudy strikeout rate using metrics not called ERA. My guess is they think they can get more strikeouts out of him and his profile sells that possibility, but even if they don’t, hes good.
Ford is a life long backup catcher, if he even sticks there.
Then why is he a top 100 prospect?
Well lots of guys are top 100 prospects and don’t make it. These are called projections. If you are keenly aware of the top 100 list you will realize he has actually dropped over the last few years. In addition, outlets like Baseball America had him off the list entirely last year.
You know who else was a top 100 prospect? Hint: it’s in my username.
Jarred Kelenic!
Backup Catcher on a MLB roster is a good gig if you can get it.
Completely agree Chopaholic. Even if he turns out to be the great reliever that M’s fans are hoping he is, getting a former 1st round pick who is a current top 100 prospect for a RP is pretty rare.
I will say the Mariners were also squeezed a bit and they probably did sell low on their end. Not a bad thing, they’re in a position where they have to consolidate to win now. Ford was going to rot on the bench behind Cal and provide next to zero value for the Mariners who also needed to improve on the bullpen after they got lit up in the playoffs. It just so happened that a rebuilding Nationals club had a sneaky good left handed reliever under team control for 5 years and a much clearer pathway to regular playing time for a highly regarded catching prospect.
I think Seattle is buying now, not selling.
Selling low is not a bad thing? I’ve made this point before, M’s fans are drastically underestimating how much a backup catcher plays. To say Ford would “rot on the bench” ignores the fact that Mitch Garver couldn’t hit a lick last year and got 290 PAs whilst the starting catcher was hitting 60 bombs and playing 159 games. Maybe Ferrer will make the M’s front office look like geniuses, but some M’s fans are going out of their way to make them the winners of the trade before either of them play an inning.
They probably did trade low but also likely his trade value wasnt as high as many expected.
No way they’ll ever take playing time away from Cal, even if they have him DH 2 times a week he’s still catching 120+ games this year and every year until his legs fall off. That left about 40ish games for Ford behind the plate, and since he’s such a top prospect that’s a waste of potential here. Hence, he’d rot on the bench in Seattle. There’s also no guarantee Ford hits any better than the pile of Garver/Knizner/Pereda either. At the very least Garver knows the staff really well as he’s worked with them for 2 years already
I’m not even going out of my way to declare the Mariners or the Nats the winner of this trade either. They both could win, or only one of them wins, or they both could lose. I only pointed out that Ferrer is a better pitcher than his ERA, and that Ford is a somewhat overrated prospect who was blocked by the literal best catcher in baseball.
Ford’s top 100 status is pretty iffy nowdays
His 3 key attributes as a prospect were his position, his speed and his bat.
He might not make it as a catcher and his speed has dropped to average. The bat is ok but will not be as much of an asset if he moved off catcher. .
.265 15HR is solid starter at catcher, fringe in the OF
Most likely scenario is a part time catcher or a 4th OF.
Still a chance he develops into a decent starting catcher but it’s not the likeliest scenario at this point.
They wasn’t wild about Harry.
Ford needs to come to the realization that he will never get a starting gig as a catcher. He has not shown proficiency as a catcher. He needs to focus on hitting and learning to play CF.
I think theres a chance he can improve enough to be a regular ot semi regular bur pretty sure the industry isnt huge on that or else he would have been traded for more. If he doesn’t catch it will be a lot harder path to be a regular even if not impossible.
That’s pretty wild to say about a 23 year old.
We deal in hard, cold absolutes around these parts.
Even the lowly Nats don’t think he’s ready yet.
Not ready yet is fine. “Ford needs to come to the realization that he will never get a starting gig as a catcher.” NEVER. That’s wild.
But he won’t.
His defense is still questionable and he hasn’t developed much power. There’s still time but that can run out quick especially since his clock has already started.
From 2001 to 2023 68 catchers were taken in the first round of the draft including the supplemental picks. That is out of 850 picks total.
Of those 68, 8 were high school players. The other 60 were college players.
Of those 8 catchers drafted out of high school only Joe Mauer and Travis d’Arnaud have turned out to be a starter as a catcher.
More than half of the top prospects at catcher in each of the past 5 years were signed as international free agency which is very interesting to me. While international free agents come from a pool of less than 25% of the total amateur players ages 10-16, most of the best catching prospects come through international free agency and not the US based amateur draft.
Where does that leave Ford?
It’s discouraging to the Nats and probably Ford knowing that the bust rate for his exact type of player is so high, but looking at how different players did in the past doesn’t have much if any bearing on how a player does today. Baseball is a beautiful crapshoot like that. For all we know, Harry Ford is the second coming of Joe Mauer. Equally likely is he’s the next Crash Davis and will regale a bunch of prospects on the bus to Podunkington, North Carolina in 2038 with stories about his 20 days in the show.
What is their population?
Now do every other position. It’s hard to make the majors. What is your actual point on international free agency? You trying to say Americans can’t catch, based on a 5-year sample size?
Why don’t you do every other position? Or do you want someone else to do all the work?
Oddly aggressive for no reason. I already know what it will tell him. Many players are drafted in the 1st round, few make it to be starters in the mlb. This isn’t the revelation he thinks it is.
Nationals are just not that wild about Harry
The Prospect Promotion Incentive was not an option for Ford, because once he was traded, the new team no longer gets this benefit.
Please look it up and correct the post.