A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.
Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.
What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.
With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.
That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:
Gotta wonder how much closer they might be if the league didn’t send Ortiz and Clase to purgatory.
Unless they were influencing games which might have been worse.
Oppo – Cora has been influencing games again too …. but this time, in a very detrimental way.
I’ve run the numbers through the Stevie Steve Projection System and they would be 0.0% closer
Thank God. Glad you ran your projections or we would all be in the dark.
Dark – I totally agree, it’s really amazing they recovered from losing two of their best relievers.
But I don’t think they will knock off the Sox. Both teams play the Tigers again, but the Sox will probably get a Detroit team that rests most of their best players quite a bit next weekend.
And Cleveland has Texas which won’t be a pushover.
And I predicted the Sox would get in, so I’m sticking with it ;O)
Not so sure the Tigers will have that option – they too could be fighting for their spot or could be going for the 1st round bye which would give them any needed rest. Guess we’ll see next weekend.
I don’t know how much Ortiz would have helped, because he probably would have been in the bullpen by now based on how he was pitching at the time, and how well Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick have done. Their bullpen has actually done a very good job covering the 9th inning and extra innings without Clase. Since his last appearance on July 26, they have a 2.76 ERA, with a 27.6% K% and 4.6% BB%. Although we know that Clase is capable of putting up an ERA that starts with 1, so who knows.
Ortiz replacements have been much better than he did. Clase would have been traded if he wasn’t suspended. I would love to see them make it in but it may be too little too late. Every year I feel like Charlie Brown and Cleveland is Lucy holding the football and promising to do it this year
If you’re talking about seasons as a whole yours is a more apt Cleveland description of the Browns. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, some say that’s insanity (a tamer version of it at any rate) and van Gogh called orange the color of insanity so it all fits. The Indians Guardians have given us much better rides these last 30 years obviously … but if you’re talking about end result, not making that Charlie Brown kick at the end, you’re sadly spot on.
Was referring to end result. Browns would have to improve substantially to even achieve Charlie Brown status
Or if they didn’t trade away Naylor, their second-best hitter. They’d probably be ahead of the Red Sox and Mariners if they just held onto him.
Naylor had 1 year left, and his departure turned into Slade Cecconi who is one of the reasons they are in contention. Josh also would have blocked CJ Kayfus and possibly taken plate appearances away from Kyle Manzardo.
Other than Cocconi who has been inconsistent at times the plate appearances would not have been changed since they were using Carlos Santana as his replacement until a few weeks ago
League should allow Ortiz and Clase to pitch simply for intrigue.
This is a top tier dumb comment. Maybe they should let Wander Franco rejoin the Rays while they’re at it!
css – If Red Sox pitcher Austin Maddox hasn’t begun serving his prison sentence yet, he may be available to join the Sox bullpen.
He took being sent to the minors too literally.
OFF-Topic: Who or What is “Jobu” , and should I even care??
Yes. He was prominently featured in hands-down the greatest movie of all time.
Jobu – Rafaela needs your help ….. he needs to overcome his fear of not swinging at curveballs a foot out of the strike zone …. and fastballs …. and sliders …. and sweepers ….
are you trying to say Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?
Hey Bartender… Jobu needs a refill
Is Jobu actually baseball related somehow, like affiliated with a certain team? Is he mascot oriented, or just a figment of someone’s rum addled imagination? This is truly mysterious. Or I am being majorly punked.
imdb.com/title/tt0097815/?ref_=ext_shr_sms
Yeah I think my wife blocked anything with foul language, etc from my media devices. Might as well have a flippin’ flip phone from 2001. No Jobu for me.
You let your wife do that to your phone???
I was being facetious, sorry. They were assuming I was too young to know Jobu, when actually I am the target audience. I just don’t remember too much about it.
Ignorant, no problem. Unfortunately, I’ve known people that let their spouse control their lives to that extent so it was easy for me to miss your facetiousness.
Well, now that’s straightened out. It worked out well enough for that CI team why can’t it work for this one. I voted yes.
I wouldn’t bet on it
MLB investigations are now sponsored by FanDuel, so that comment just got you into hot water.
The Red Sox have a tough schedule remaining, and CLE plays TEX to end the season.
I think it’s doable, coming from a Sox fan
You think they can jump Seattle or Houston to get in? Seattle and Houston play starting tomorrow for 3 days. Will be implament in who wins the Div. Seattle has Colorado and the stupid match of not only not an AL team but more importantly not an ALW team. The end of the season should always be played against a team in same Div or at least same league. Would be so much more fun playing Houston the last 3 games. I don’t think Seattle is afraid to play LA especially At home but games with much more bearing make it funner.
I think they can jump Boston to get in lol. Losing 2 of 3 to the A’s and Boston still has TOR and DET. They play TB first
Boston is 8-2 against TB, 3-7 against TOR and 0-3 against DET.
Cleveland is hot right now and Boston is ice cold.
Joe – One thing I didn’t see mentioned in the article, the Sox own the tiebreaker over Cleveland. That means Cleveland is actually 2 games behind in the loss column, not one.
Skubal will not pitch against the Sox, and Tigers will be rested the final weekend.
Plus Cleveland doesn’t have any more days off, and Detroit will give it their all when playing them head-to-head.
I think this Tampa series will be the biggest. Sox have owned the Rays, if they can win the Tampa series then losing the Toronto series won’t matter much.
I think as usual the Sox pitching will carry them into the postseason.
Cleveland does have a day off Monday
Wait – Yeah my bad, I didn’t realize they are playing 2 on Saturday.
Unfortunately, with 15 teams in both leagues it’s impossible for every team to play an in-league game at the same time.
It would be fun, however unlikely, if the Cubs advanced past the wild card round, the Guards eke their way in and win, and the two faced off again in the World Series 9 years after the epic one they had that brought trophy to Chicago finally.
Long road to get there and even then a longest of long shots, but one can dream.
Typical season for Cubs fans:
-One can dream
-All-star break
-Wait ’til next year
Gonna be hard to leapfrog Seattle and/or Boston. But one of those teams could collapse in final 10 games it would be esspecially embarrassing for mariners since they play Colorado but still dodgers and Huston they might lose 2/3 of both those who knows.Red Sox really will be the Tampa series this weekend cause if they blow that series there gonna be hard pressed to beat Toronto and Detroit the next 2 series unless both teams decide to start resting guys hard on Monday
big – Beating Detroit will be easy, the Tigers won’t be trying to win. They’ve got nothing to play for next weekend.
By the looks of it, they’ll be attempting to hold on to the Division.
They might have everything in the world to play for if they keep up playing the way they have been. Crazy that CLE has been able to claw their way back into contention.
Crazy part is if Cleveland doesn’t lose another game this season, they win the division. They actually control their own destiny, even if the odds of winning the last 10 games is astronomical.
Cleveland can win the division. The Tigers must get to 89 wins…just 4 of their last 9. Cleveland will own the tie breaker.
If Tigers go 3-6 and finish with 88 wins, the Guards just need to go 7-3. Not impossible. Cleveland wins the division.
Houston and Seattle could both go 5-4 in their last 9 to get to 89. If Boston goes 6-3 and the Yankees 4-6 they all pass the Tigers.
Toronto, NY, Boston, Cleveland, Houston and Seattle advance.
It;s the Tigers. It’s Detroit. It could happen.
The Tigers won their title back at the all star break. First half champions!!! Banners fly forever.
Fever, you of all people should know that you can’t predict games will be easy to win. It’s baseball after all.
Ghost – You’re right. I’m just trying to be more optimistic since that’s what people want here. 😆
But if Detroit does use their worst pitchers and position players, the Sox should prevail.
Fever, You’re such a people pleaser! 😉
My guess is their best chance is reliant on the outcome of the west, with one team sweeping the other in their final showdown. Because the guardians don’t play any of the wild card teams. Best they can do to help their own chances is hope to still win the division. But those odds aren’t great. IF they do, I think Seattle would’ve won the west and they would take over the Astros.
As a Guardians fan, I think it’s too little too late. But the fact that you can even make a convincing argument otherwise is a testament to how well they’ve played lately.
Just 1.5 back of RSox and 4 game sweep of Twins this weekend would not be a surprise. They’d also gain 2.5 games minimum in that scenario on the ALW club who drops 2 of 3 (M’s vs Hou).
It’s definitely doable but I’m mostly just trying to keep myself grounded. Because it’s incredible what they’ve been able to pull off lately, but they’d still need to maintain this for another week and a half. They’ll get help from the AL West, but the most important thing for them is to take two of three (or all three, even) from the Tigers next week.
Even with the Twins having sold off half their roster and playing poorly since then, I can’t expect a four game sweep against anybody — although the schedule does line up well for them going forward. It really is in their hands, which is impressive considering where they were earlier this summer.
Like you I’m a big fan who is enjoying the incredible ride but I hate that they left so much up to chance, hate that it seems like another year wasted for Jose and the great pitching they assemble on the cheap every year. And Uncle Carl is a wizard among pitching coaches. We needed more offense, that could have been easily accomplished around the edges without stealing too much from the Guards ball mystique.
Heck yea they’ll overtake my Tigers. We just got swept by them.
If they were the Indians, yes, but not the Guardians.
The red Sox are letting them in. They’ll make it. I don’t see Boston getting their crap together fast enough.
Cleveland will overtake Detroit and Detroit will miss the post season. I’m first to say it.
Slim chance. They’d need to win 87 at least, that means they’d need to win 6 of their last 10, which would mean 13 of their final 17 (since they’re on a 7 game win streak), highly unlikely. And that assumes Tigers only win 2 of their last 9. I’d bet against it.
Not as slim as you might think. They have three games against Detroit next week and they’ve played one less game. They sweep the Tigers again and win the one less game against Minnesota they’re dead even and Cleveland would hold the tie breaker. Will it happen? Odds are against them but not nearly as impossible as it may seem
I don’t like that this is even a discussion. Boston is doing everything they can to give their spot away. Starters are wearing down. And who would’ve thought the subtraction of Anthony would kill their offense?
These games are hard to watch…
Tigers fan here, I truly worry that Cleveland could overtake Detroit. If they get swept tonight it will make the next 9 games a lot of restless nights. Hopefully Cleveland will get in as wild card and central division has 2 teams in the playoffs
Cleveland is red hot and their next four are against what’s left of Minnesota. I like their chances.
can Cleveland get in? you bet they can. The Tigers have overachieved all season (and have been a lot of fun to watch) but have played less than inspiring ball since the All-star break…
meanwhile, the Red Sox are faltering at the wrong time- going 3-3 against a vastly improving A’s team, losing 2 of 3 to Arizona and 2 of 3 against Pittsburgh, no less 2 of 3 against the Yankees.. and with their final 9 games against Tampa, the Jays, and Tigers, there’s no guarantee the Sox make it.
With Bregman and Giolito likely leaving after the season,(and Story, for that matter, may press his luck, as well), the immediate future in Boston is murky.
Certainly an uphill battle.. but they’ve fought their way to the point where they control their own destiny in the ALC race.
You never know, but a few corrections to some comments above…
Cleveland does not have to overtake Seattle and Boston. They merely have to pass one of those two…or Houston.
Highly unlikely that Detroit will be resting anybody next week. Not only do they have to fight off Cleveland, they are attempting to get a first round bye in the playoffs. Currently they sit one game ahead of both Seattle and Houston.
Last week Cleveland basically had two consecutive elimination series. They scored knockouts in both, winning 3 out four vs Tampa and KC.
I’m not sure anybody involved has a scheduling advantage, except maybe Houston.
I voted YES in the poll, just because Clevelands pitching and defense…run prevention…has been the best in baseball over the last month. But the math says NO.
CAT – Great post!
But do you think Skubal pitches Tuesday? Or Wednesday? I think Wednesday, because starting their first postseason game is more important than trying to get a better seeding.
I think it depends on what happens this weekend.
Tiger fan here. I was impressed with Cleveland’s defense. Every position. They’re pitching lights out too. I give them a shot at overtaking Detroit.
Steven Kwan, a wee man, is also a major intimidating force in left field. Frequent game-changing feats from his remote outpost are something to behold.
The Tigers for one cannot solve him.
The injury to Roman Anthony does the Sox in. Stats don’t lie they are under .500 on the season without him. They also play the Blue Jays before the Tigers.
They have a chance, the Red Sox are down to a 1.5 game lead now (though they hold the tiebreaker). The Sox lineup without Devers, Anthony, and Abreu isn’t any better than Cleveland’s, they had Wong with a .531 OPS batting sixth today.
phillies – Ready to be amazed with an interesting fact?
Since July 14th Rafaela has the lowest OPS in MLB, and it’s not even close.
Since July 14th he’s batting .187 with a .237 OBP and .269 SLG. His .506 OPS is 88 points lower than Colton Cowser.
Cora is an absolute moron for continuing to start Rafaela. His defense doesn’t even come close to making up for his abysmal hitting.
FPG
Since he returned from injury — Bregman
games 56. ba- .248 ,6 hmrs, 24 RBI . It’s been worse more recently. before the injury he was putting up excellent numbers. That’s not a small sample size. Those numbers are hardly worth $40 million (deferred , whatever). Even including his defense and leadership ,the price is exorbitant. Unless he gets hot now and in the playoffs, how can anyone , including Boras justify him opting out of that contract? . I as you know,have been a big fan of Bregmans, but unless it comes out that he is nursing some nagging injury,( it will)if he decides to opt out let him go . (he won’t ).
cdc – Well said!
Just one thing, he actually began slumping 2 weeks prior to the injury.
From May 8 thru May 23 (date of the injury) he batted just .220 with a .719 OPS and he even struck out in all 4 PA’s on May 21.
But yeah, there’s a decent chance he doesn’t opt out.
Not shocked the Tigers have collapsed like an unfortunate geezer’s dusty old spine.
Chief factors include Unsustainable All-Stars (!) Zach McKinstry and Javy Baez performing in exactly the same way as when accepting that free pork sammich offered after sitting untouched in a Los Angeles AM/PM warmer for an excess number of days.
Same exact thing.
FPG
Well,here we go…… I am officially nervous. The whole lineup seems to be in a funk. Except Story. A few weeks ago I was expecting , hoping , Crochet would be on a strict ,low pitch count,low inning regiment getting him ready for the playoffs. Basically load management. Bello and Giolito to for that matter. I have little confidence in the lineup , Yoshida batting cleanup????!! Basically 2 games up on the hottest team in the league with 9 to go. What that team is doing is amazing.
Indians karma might have pulled Cleveland through, but Guardians have no karma at all to offer — sad 🥲