Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.
Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.
After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.
His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.
When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.
Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.
Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.
While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.
How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:
He would be a fool to turn that easy money. Unless the Tigers have a deep playoff run and he pitches like an ace but highely unlikely.
Fetter fixed this guy. Now it’s time for him to test the market and get paid.
I think the QO will put off a lot of teams. By ERA+ and FIP, he is modestly worse than 2024. He is now a year older. If the $35 mill. (now potentially $45 mill.) two-year deal is all he could get last year offseason without a QO, a $22 mill. QO is probably his best option. If he has a solid 2026, he could re-test the FA market in his age 31 season without a QO (assuming he declines the option, gets the QO and accepts it).
Fool is a strong term. It would be true if he was risking the entire $20 million. But he isn’t. What’s the worst that can happen? He’d get $17 million a year for (probably his choice of) one, two, or three years? That’s what inconsistent, starters are getting these days. Even ones with previous health issues. So he’d be risking $3 million total for a shot at a longer term contract with a slightly lower AAV.
If he turns it down, he either gets the QO and has the choice of getting an extra $2 million from the Tigers, or going free agent. If he doesn’t get the QO, he enters free agency without it saddling him.
If he’s smart, he opts-out. Forcing DET to either offer him the QO or allow him to walk.
He can walk all the way back to St. Louis.
The last time Flaherty put together back to back healthy and productive seasons was before the pandemic. Suffice to say, but his volatility, which was the reason he didn’t get a bit contract pre-2024, will likely limit him again this time.
He’ll probably stay
The Tigers had a D+ off-season and followed a great start to the season with an F trade deadline.
So predictable too
I do think AJ hinch will get fired if the tigers lose the division and get edged by the Astros for the wild card spot, good managers don’t let a team lose a 12 game lead in September
Granted they don’t have a great roster but they used to be so good with those players
I doubt that. AJ’s not to blame. Harris can’t fire someone he gave no help to, in terms of trade deadline reinforcements. (Although Harris is the only one in baseball who doesn’t believe that.)
If I owned the Tigers, AJ would be safe, but Harris would be under strict supervision for what he plans to do this offseason. It’s time to put up or shut up: No more acquisitions of the Nick Matons, Tanner Raineys and Alex Cobbs of the world.
Considering the collapse is the fault of Scott Harris, firing AJ Hinch would compound his failure to an unmeasurable degree.
I’d exercise the option because assuming he’s healthy, he’ll get another contract in 2027 anyhow. The risk/reward on betting $20M next season doesn’t look too attractive to me.
decline the option and take the QO to get that baggage off his 2027 free agency.
The market has never bought into Jack Flaherty as a long term play.
This is the classic hold your cards, count your money later and take the guaranteed payout.
Easy opt out for the player.
The Tigers should try to keep him, but if he want’s to move on there’s not much they can do. He stayed healthy and the prices healthy pitchers are getting is very good. So, we shall see.
Agreed. I’d be okay if he comes back a year. I wouldn’t extend him, and if he opts-out, I’d offer him 2 years at an AAV lower than his option. He eats innings and gets strikeouts — both of those things are valuable.
Why would he accept a 2 year deal at an AAV lower than his option? If he opts-out, DET should offer him a QO. It’ll cost them 2 M$ more than his option would have. A 1 year deal is low risk.
@ mrkinsm Because some players do. They value the security of a larger total sum over a shorter term AAV. It happens often enough that I’m surprised you would even ask. 2 years/$34 million is better than 1 year/$20 or $22 million.
He’s not going to have to do that. No. 2 years at 34 is not better than 1 at 22 not unless you think so lowly of your skills that you won’t be able to get at least 1 at 12 another year from now.
He wasn’t great for the dodgers last year, other than one or two good starts. But sucked in the postseason. I think this is kinda who he is
He was great in the beginning of every series. The Dodgers only had 2 healthy starters so his effort was much needed.
Probably just declines the player option and takes the QO, which gives him the same salary and means he can’t get the QO next year.
Or he declines the option and the QO and probably still gets more money. Either way, there’s no reason for him to exercise the option.
Tigers should hope he comes back. They can’t count on Reese Olson to stay healthy for a full year. And other than Skubal, nobody else on the staff can get strikeouts.
Oh those things!
If I’m Jack I might opt out, force the Tigers to burn the QO and then accept that. That way he gets a mild raise and they can’t extend it next year.
If he takes the option, but Detroit isn’t enamored, what are the odds they try to trade him right away?
I don’t think they deal him, honestly. With Jobe missing all of next year, and Olson being fragile — they need him.
100% he will be opting out. If he accepts their Q.O., which he shouldn’t, plenty of the teams would be willing to take on his entire salary. Tigers would gladly hope he accepts the Q.O. and they can trade him at the deadline if they choose to.
No team should ever give Flaherty a long-term, big money contract. Track record of attitude, performance, injuries says not worth the risk. Not going to be anything except a pedestrian pitcher overall. Warm body starter.
He can easily get more money on a lower aav. I’m of the 15 mil is the same as 20 mil mindset. I’ll take 3/50 over 1/20 all day long.
Yes, but he couldn’t get that last offseason even without costing the signer a QO and following a better season. What makes you think he would get 3/50 this offseason?
The market does. If you take his ERA at face value, he’s a healthy #4/#5 who eats innings. Nobody knows what kind of offers Flaherty rejected last offseason. I’d imagine it was more than $50M guaranteed.
Let him go. Trade Skubal in the offseason, and try to rebuild for next year, and hopefully, Harris doesn’t screw it up.
Mize
Olsen
Montero, to start. And whoever you get in trade(s), or free agency.
Melton is a safe bet for a rotation spot.
Forgot about Melton…..
Man, I remember when people were predicting last offseason that Flaherty would get over $100 million. If I were him, I would take the player option and hit the open market next year. He’s about to turn 30 so it’s not like he’s ancient. This is now three straight seasons of 27+ starts which is very solid. Try again next year when maybe his performance will match his peripherals more closely.
He’d be better off taking the Q.O. off his back and re-enter F.A. in ’26/’27. If the Tigers don’t offer one, the minimum one-year deal he will get should be ~$18M. Walker Buehler got $21M from the Red Sox this season.
He should and will opt out. Even 2/30 is more than 1/20.
Scottie Harris will offer Alex Cobb another $15 mil and extend Flaherty for 4 more years and he’ll bring back Maeda.
It says 0 votes for each option but 2,642 total votes. WUT???
what happened to the vote numbers at the bottom of the article??
I thought it amazing that everyone was so indifferent that not a single person voted.
The votes aren’t showing for the Mitch Keller/Pirates poll today, either.
Opt out. Hope the Tigers QO and then accept it with a slight raise and removal of the QO compensation at the end of 2026 making for a clean free agency. If the Tigers don’t offer the QO, then look for a three year deal with an opt out at a lower AAV but with a total guarantee more than he’d get if he stayed with the Tigers in 2026.