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Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty

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Feb. 7: The Tigers have formally announced Flaherty’s two-year deal.

Feb. 2: Jack Flaherty is returning to the Motor City, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reports that the right-hander has signed a two-year deal with the Tigers worth $35MM in guaranteed money.  The frontloaded deal pays Flaherty $25MM in 2025, and he can opt out of the second year of the contract this fall to re-enter free agency.  Flaherty will earn at least $10MM in 2026, though he can unlock up to an additional $10MM in incentive bonuses if he makes 15 starts this season.  The deal will become official once Flaherty passes a physical, and the right-hander is represented by CAA Sports.

The new contract is a healthy increase over the one-year, $14MM deal Flaherty signed with Detroit in December 2023, as the righty was looking to rebuild his value after a few injury-marred and inconsistent seasons with the Cardinals and Orioles.  Flaherty got himself back on track in impressive fashion, delivering a 2.95 ERA over 18 starts and 106 2/3 innings for the Tigers before he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

Now pitching for his hometown team, Flaherty had a 3.58 ERA in 55 1/3 regular-season innings for L.A. and had a couple of big moments in the playoffs, most notably seven shutout innings against the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS.  After capturing his first World Series ring, Flaherty headed into the open market in search of a lucrative long-term deal, bolstered by his 2024 production and unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

MLBTR rated Flaherty eighth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting that he’d land a five-year, $115MM contract as he entered his age-29 season.  Even as other pitchers exceeded salary expectations, Flaherty’s market remained relatively cold, and he said in an interview on the Foul Territory podcast just over a week ago that he had received little in the way of formal contract offers.  A couple of weeks ago, reports suggested that Flaherty was open to the type of shorter-term deal with an opt-out that he ended up signing for his second stint in a Tigers uniform.

The Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Orioles were all linked to Flaherty at various points during the offseason, and reports of Detroit’s interest in a reunion first surfaced back in early December.  Flaherty noted during his Foul Territory interview that he “wanted to stay in Detroit” before the deadline trade, and “loved” his previous time with the team, particularly pitching alongside Tarik Skubal in the rotation.

It could be that Flaherty lingered this long on the open market because teams wanted to see more than just his 2024 season before being sold on a longer-term commitment.  Injury concerns may have been a factor, as the Yankees pulled out of a planned deal to acquire Flaherty at the deadline after looking at his medical records.  Apart from one skipped start due to a bad back, Flaherty was otherwise pretty healthy in 2024, avoiding the injured list and tossing 184 combined innings during the regular season and postseason.  His average fastball velocity was a modest 93.3mph, however, and he lost some velo later in the season after the trade.

Looking elsewhere on the Statcast page, Flaherty posted an excellent 29.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate, along with strong hard-contact and chase rates to go along with his 3.17 combined ERA with Detroit and Los Angeles.  It was the kind of form that Flaherty hadn’t shown over a full season since 2019, when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting while pitching with the Cardinals.

It is relatively uncommon to see a player get dealt by a team at the trade deadline and then re-sign with that same team the following offseason, yet the way this scenario played out, the Tigers’ decision to move Flaherty couldn’t have worked out much better.  Detroit received prospects Trey Sweeney and Thayron Liranzo from the Dodgers, and Sweeney already made an impact by becoming the Tigers’ regular shortstop down the stretch.  Unlike most deadline sellers, the Tigers caught fire late in the season and made an improbable playoff run, going 31-13 over their last 44 games to win a wild card berth, and Detroit then upset the Astros in the Wild Card Series before taking the Guardians to the full five games in the ALDS.

After relying on the “pitching chaos” strategy for much of that run, the Tigers’ rotation looks a lot more stable heading into 2025.  Flaherty and fellow new signing Alex Cobb join Skubal, Reese Olson as pitchers with set rotation spots, and the list of fifth starter candidates includes the likes of Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe and Matt Manning.  Detroit might well keep this entire group to guard against injuries, but there’s enough depth here that the Tigers could consider trading a starter to address another primary need, like relief pitching or a right-handed bat.

Among Detroit’s primary free agent signings this winter, Cobb, Gleyber Torres, and Tommy Kahnle all signed one-year contracts and Flaherty’s deal might also end up as a one-year pact should he exercise his opt-out clause.  Even if Flaherty passes on his opt-out, all these signings fit president of baseball operations Scott Harris’ preferred model of shorter-term contracts.  This isn’t to say that the Tigers haven’t at least explored longer-term deals (i.e. their ongoing pursuit of Alex Bregman), but focusing on just short-term upgrades has allowed the club to keep its financial powder dry for a bigger splash in the future.  Flaherty, Colt Keith, and Javier Baez are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season.

While naturally Flaherty would’ve preferred to have locked down a pricey long-term deal already, another quality season will surely line up nicely for such a contract next winter, even if a full year with the Tigers would make him eligible for a qualifying offer.  In the interim, he’ll bank at least a $25MM payday, and pitch in a comfortable and familiar environment on what looks to be a contending team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Podcast: Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Tigers Still Pursuing Bregman After Flaherty Agreement

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The Tigers made their biggest strike of the offseason last night, agreeing to terms with right-hander Jack Flaherty on a two-year deal that allows him to opt back into free agency at season’s end. He’ll be paid $25MM in 2025 and has a $10MM player option for the 2026 season (that increases to $20MM if he makes 15 starts). Even with that fairly pricey pact in place, the Tigers aren’t closing the door on the other marquee free agent they’ve been chasing. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that Detroit still in pursuit of third baseman Alex Bregman even after signing Flaherty. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press hears the same, writing that the Tigers have “conducted their offseason moves around their interest in signing Bregman,” ultimately passing on several right-handed bats in whom they also had interest (Christian Walker, switch-hitter Anthony Santander, and Ha-Seong Kim).

With Flaherty on the books, the Tigers’ 2025 payroll projects out to about $142MM, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’re up to $156MM in luxury obligations. That leaves them more than $50MM shy of the franchise-record $200MM player payroll and $85MM shy of the $241MM tax threshold. There’s room to accommodate Bregman, be it on a higher-annual value short-term deal with opt-outs or on the type of long-term, six- or seven-year pact he’s been seeking throughout free agency. The only Tigers guaranteed any salary beyond the 2025 season are Flaherty and infielders Colt Keith and Javier Baez. It’s possible — if not likely — that Flaherty will turn down that player option and head back to the market. Baez owed $25MM in 2025 and $24MM in both 2026-27. Keith is owed just over $24MM total through the 2029 season.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample long-term payroll space available if the Tigers decide that a late agreement with Bregman is the optimal finishing piece to an active winter. Adding Bregman would likely mean optioning top prospect Jace Jung to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season, but he’d be a depth option at either third or second in the event of an injury to Bregman or fellow free agent signee Gleyber Torres. Matt Vierling would presumably spend the bulk of his time in right field, though he could spell Bregman at the hot corner when he needs a breather or perhaps gets a rest day at designated hitter.

Any deal between the Tigers and Bregman would surely be the largest pact ever issued under president of baseball operations Scott Harris. In two-plus years on the job — a portion of it still at least partially in rebuild mode — Harris hasn’t gone beyond a two-year guarantee for a free agent. Flaherty and Kenta Maeda are the only two free agents Detroit has signed for two years under Harris, and no free agent has received more than Flaherty’s $35MM guarantee. The Tigers went six years on their extension with Keith, but he’d yet to even make his MLB debut and received a $28.6425MM guarantee.

Bregman reportedly has multiple six-year offers — one from the Astros (valued at at least $156MM) and one from another interested party that is said to contain an opt-out after year one. The Blue Jays have been suggested as the other team, though it’s not expressly clear that they’ve done so (nor is the value of the other six-year offer known). Beyond the Astros, Tigers and Jays, both the Cubs and Red Sox have been involved in Bregman’s market. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago reports that as of yesterday afternoon, the Cubs are still in active talks with Bregman’s camp as well. That’s not really a new development, of course, but it’s further indication that none of the five clubs reported to be in pursuit of Bregman has fully backed down as of yet.

Mets Have Shown Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Mets are among the teams that have spoken with the Padres regarding Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported this afternoon that the Cubs were also involved on the star righty.

Cease is one of the biggest names to watch over the next six weeks. San Diego has fielded interest in virtually all of their highly-priced players who could test free agency next offseason (e.g. Cease, Luis Arraez, Michael King, Robert Suarez). Every contender could be involved on Cease, who is coming off a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting.

If he does move, it’d be the second straight winter in which Cease is dealt late in the offseason. The Padres acquired him from the White Sox midway through Spring Training last year. His first season with the Friars was excellent. He worked to a 3.47 ERA while striking out 224 batters over 189 1/3 innings. Cease has not missed a start since 2019. He has topped 200 strikeouts in four straight seasons and has two top five Cy Young finishes in the past three years.

San Diego has had a quiet winter as they navigate payroll restrictions and squabbling amongst their ownership group. The Padres only have three pitchers who’d be locked into their season-opening rotation: Cease, King and Yu Darvish. Trading either Cease or King would subtract from the rotation’s ceiling, but it stands to reason they’d demand at least one cheaper MLB-ready starting pitcher as part of the return. San Diego also needs to find a new left fielder after letting Jurickson Profar walk in free agency.

Last year’s Corbin Burnes trade serves as a template for what the Friars could demand for Cease. The Brewers netted two MLB-ready players who’d been borderline top 100 prospects (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall), plus the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft, from the Orioles. Cease is slated for a $13.75MM salary in his final year of arbitration. While the Padres do not expect to work out a long-term deal with the Boras Corporation client, they’re trying to balance their long-term outlook against the goal of returning to the postseason this year.

Heyman suggests that the Padres could subsequently look to sign Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta if they deal Cease or King. That’d require an unexpected willingness to stretch the budget. Even if they look to short-term deals, Flaherty and Pivetta should each beat $13.75MM annually. Pivetta would also require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. That series of events would raise payroll and still leave San Diego with a hole in left field unless they address that via the hypothetical Cease trade.

The Mets have been reluctant to make long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations David Stearns. They’ve addressed the rotation with a series of shorter-term moves. They brought back Sean Manaea for three years and (a partially deferred) $75MM, added reliever conversion pickup Clay Holmes on a three-year deal, and taken a two-year flier on Frankie Montas. That trio joins Kodai Senga and David Peterson in their projected starting five. Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning are depth options. It’s not a bad group but lacks a true ace, especially if Senga’s workload is limited after he barely pitched in 2024.

Poll: Will Jack Flaherty Or Pete Alonso Sign First?

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Just a couple of weeks remain before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, and 32 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents have signed. That includes 17 of the top 20, with only third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman Pete Alonso, and right-hander Jack Flaherty still remaining in that upper tier. Bregman’s market has appeared to pick up in recent days, even as he’s stuck to his guns on seeking a long-term contract, but things have remained fairly static for both Alonso and Flaherty.

That lack of movement has come in spite of both players beginning to consider shorter-term offers to at least some degree. In Flaherty’s case, it was reported earlier this month that his camp is “open” to short-term offers after spending much of the winter looking for a five-year deal. Alonso surely entered free agency seeking a long-term pact, but the interest he’s received has been focused on shorter-term arrangements similar to the ones signed by players like Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell last winter. Though he’s open to shorter-term pacts, he rejected a three-year offer from the Mets that guaranteed him around $70MM; his camp had reportedly offered the Mets a three-year deal at a higher annual salary that contained opt-out clauses.

Both Alonso and Flaherty saw their difficult trips through free agency spur candid public comments this weekend. In Flaherty’s case, he delivered those comments himself in an interview where he discussed his “weird” free agency before suggesting that many teams have become somewhat complacent in pursuing just the opportunity to make the postseason rather than trying to construct the best team possible. For Alonso, it was Mets owner Steve Cohen who described “exhausting” negotiations with the club’s longtime first baseman. Cohen noted that he made a “significant” offer to Alonso’s camp but hasn’t been interested in the contract structures being presented by them, calling the deals “highly asymmetric” against the team.

Flaherty and Alonso are two of the more difficult players to evaluate in this winter’s crop of free agents. Flaherty had an undeniably excellent platform season in 2024, pitching to a 3.17 ERA (127 ERA+) in 28 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers while striking out 29.9% of opponents. That was his first time making it to 150 innings in five years, however, as he pitched just 299 innings total over the 2020-23 seasons. That four-year stretch saw Flaherty struggle on a rate basis, as well, with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA (94 ERA+) and 4.36 FIP. In conjunction with high-profile reports around the trade deadline that brought forth concerns regarding Flaherty’s medical records, clubs have been reluctant to commit to the right-hander long term even in spite of his demonstrated upside.

For Alonso, the divisiveness is to be expected for a player with his profile. The slugger’s titanic power allowed him to explode onto the scene back in 2019 when he won Rookie of the Year, crushed 53 homers, and became an instant star. From 2019 to 2022, Alonso slashed .261/.349/.535 (137 wRC+) with 146 homers in 530 games and established himself as a consistent four-win player. The past two seasons have been less productive. He’s hit .229/.324/.480 (121 wRC+) since 2023 with career-worst 34 home runs in 2024. That’s still well above average, but now that Alonso’s bat has seemingly taken a step back from “elite,” his poor defense and relatively pedestrian on-base ability have are more problematic. Alonso’s star power and slugging ability appear to suggest he should be in line for a healthy long-term deal, but the market has moved away from this type of skill set. Were Alonso still in his mid-20s, perhaps it’d be overlooked, but he turned 30 in December.

The start of spring training hasn’t always been enough to convince star players who linger on market to sign, but it’s a strong incentive for players to accelerate talks. Further, the struggles of late signees who miss significant portions of spring training (Jordan Montgomery being the most prominent recent example) could further incentivize players to get a deal in place soon.

Who will be off the board first? Will Alonso be able to reach an agreement that bridges the gap between his peak and more recent production? Or will Flaherty find a team willing to gamble on his excellent 2024 but shaky track record from 2020-23? Have your say in the poll below:

Jack Flaherty Discusses Free Agency

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Free agent righty Jack Flaherty appeared on the Foul Territory podcast recently to discuss his ongoing trip through free agency and made some revealing comments about the state of his market. Notably, the right-hander indicated that while a handful of teams have continued to check in with him throughout the offseason, clubs have been reluctant to make him a formal offer to this point.

“It’s like, ’What are you up to?’ [and] ’When is the market gonna move?’… You have to make an offer and then it’ll go, but just calling and checking in… I don’t know. It’s weird,” Flaherty said. He then went on to suggest that clubs might have some level of complacency about improving beyond the level needed to have a chance at getting into the playoffs.

“It’s not that I don’t think teams want to win, I just think you have a lot of teams that look at their rosters and they’re happy with it… teams just want to get into the playoffs. Maybe it’s not World Series or bust, it’s just hope we can get into the playoffs and then kind of see what happens.”

Since the league expanded the postseason to include 12 teams back in 2022, there’s been a trend away from the tear-down method of rebuilding used by teams like the Cubs, Nationals, and Orioles in recent years. Entering the 2025 season, only the White Sox and Marlins are rebuilding in that sort of aggressive fashion with the rest of the league’s clubs generally looking to maintain at least some level of baseline competitiveness. That’s a strategy incentivized by the new playoff format, which not only added another playoff team in both leagues but also allows Wild Card teams to participate in a three-game series rather than the one-game, win-or-go-home playoff the 10-team format utilized in the past.

That guarantee of a postseason series for any club that can make the playoffs at all, when combined with the inherit randomness of baseball’s playoffs, has arguably weakened the incentive for teams to maximize their odds of winning their division at the expense of the franchise’s longer-term outlook. Some evidence for this is relatively easy to see: 2024 was the first season in a decade where no club won 100 games, and the first three seasons of the 12-team playoff format have seen five teams that won 86 games or less make the postseason after just two such teams made the playoffs during the entire 10-team playoff era that spanned from 2012 to 2021.

That includes 84-win campaigns by the Diamondbacks and Marlins in 2023, which were tied for the lowest win total for any playoff team since 83-win Cardinals won the World Series back in 2006. Only one other team, the 2005 Padres, has made it to the playoffs with less than 84 wins in a 162-game season since the 1973 Mets won the AL East with 82 wins. To what extent that increased ability for teams with win totals in the mid-80’s to make the postseason can be traced back to the struggles some higher-end free agents such as Flaherty have faced in finding free agent deals that are commensurate with their perceived value is difficult to pin down, however.

Regardless of the cause of Flaherty’s depressed market, it was reported earlier this month that the right-hander is now open to short-term offers as he looks to find his new home with the start of Spring Training just two over two weeks away. The Tigers, Cubs, Orioles, and Blue Jays are among the teams that have been connected to Flaherty this winter. The right-hander expressed a desire to return to the Dodgers early in the offseason, but that door has long appeared closed in the aftermath of Los Angeles striking early to sign Blake Snell back in November. The Dodgers have also added Roki Sasaki since then, further crowding their rotation mix. Flaherty acknowledged the long odds of a reunion during the interview, noting that he “can do the math” and surmise that he’s “most likely” not returning to LA. He also has interest in returning to his other 2024 club this year, however, and spoke positively of the Tigers during the interview.

“You know, I wanted to stay in Detroit,” Flaherty said. “We had conversations, and I loved it there. And I thought the combo of me and Skub was incredible… we’ve been talking to them and talking to other teams… Hey, you know, it would be fun to go back there.”

The Tigers appear to be one of the more active teams at the top of the remaining free agent market at this point, as they’ve remained engaged not only with Flaherty but also with third baseman Alex Bregman. Bregman has appeared to be the club’s priority to this point, but those are reportedly at a “standstill.” If Bregman ultimately signs elsewhere, it’s easy to imagine Detroit redirecting those funds to Flaherty where the righty would reclaim his role at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Tarik Skubal. That signing would push the club’s potential fifth starter options like Kenta Maeda, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Keider Montero into depth roles entering the season.

Anthony Santander, Jack Flaherty Reportedly Open To Short-Term Offers

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As the offseason’s free agent market has developed and with Spring Training looming just over the horizon next month, a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.

Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal. Sammon also confirmed previous reports that indicated the camp of first baseman Pete Alonso had made an three-year offer to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, though it remains unclear if he’s open to similar short-term offers from other clubs at this point.

It’s a notable update to the market of all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty were reportedly looking for five-year deals that could have reached into the range of nine figures. Santander in particular reportedly has a contract offer on the table from the Blue Jays as of last week, though given the fact that he’s now open to exploring short-term deals it seems as though that offer may not have been one the switch-hitter was interested in accepting. It’s easy to imagine the possibility of getting a high-end free agent on a short-term deal opens up the market for these players, or perhaps convincing teams already connected to the players to become more serious about their pursuits.

As one example, Flaherty has previously been connected to the Cubs but there’s been some suggestion that Chicago (who signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out heavy deal just last winter) has reservations regarding the right-hander’s asking price. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been connected to both Flaherty and Santander but have remained opportunistic in free agency, locking down one-year deals with Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb to improve their roster without making long-term commitments. Either of these clubs could theoretically be enticed to step up their efforts if their target is now open to considering a short-term deal.

While shorter-term deals can be attractive to teams as a way to mitigate risk associated with a particular free agent, they can still come with complications. While the deals Snell and Chapman signed in San Francisco last winter were clear successes for both sides, with Snell dominating down the stretch in a Giants uniform before signing a lucrative deal in L.A. back in November while Chapman had a resurgent season and extended with the club long-term, not all deals of this variety work out quite so well. Montgomery’s deal with Arizona quickly turned out to be a disaster as the left-hander endured the worst season of his career, got demoted to the bullpen, and has been shopped as a potential salary dump by the Diamondbacks this winter. Bellinger, meanwhile, posted a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago that led the Cubs to dump his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month in order to create an opening in the lineup for the addition of a more impactful bat than Kyle Tucker.

Even with those potential downsides, it’s easy to see why clubs could prefer a short-term deal rather than one that puts them on the hook for a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs were still able to shed the vast majority of the money owed to Bellinger in trade even after a pedestrian 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous campaign. Swinging those deals would be far more difficult if either player were on lengthy deals with larger overall guarantees, even if the AAV of those deals would likely be lower.

For the players, this sort of approach comes with both pros and cons. There is of course risk involved that injury or poor performance leads to them hitting the market with less value than they had in their initial trip through free agency. In the case of Flaherty, who is currently unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer, taking a short-term deal comes with a bit of extra risk given that even a wildly successful season could end up not leading to the sort of lucrative long-term deal he’s hoping for given the fact that he could be tagged with a QO in a future offseason. For a player already tagged with a QO like Santander, however, signing a short-term deal and hitting free agency after another strong season could provide an even larger boost to his value by allowing him to re-enter free agency unencumbered in the future.

While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open the market up for these players to an extent, that shouldn’t be taken to mean that a massive shakeup is guaranteed. Those high annual salaries figure to be an obstacle for clubs in or on the cusp of luxury tax territory as well as those dealing with budget crunches. As one example, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that Alonso could look to seek a deal that offers an average annual value of $31.1MM in order to land the AAV record for first basemen. While that appears to be speculative on the part of the pair and they go on to suggest deferred money that would lower the net present value to be involved, even an AAV in the $25MM to $30MM range is the sort of figure that the majority of small-market clubs and even big spenders deep into luxury tax territory could be even less willing to stomach than a somewhat longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.

Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?

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If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto’s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.

On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.

If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.

Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.

There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.

In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.

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