Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. AL East race tightens:
The Blue Jays have been in control of the AL East for almost three months, but their hold on the division is getting shakier. The Yankees not only clinched yesterday after their third consecutive win — they pulled within a game of a Blue Jays club that lost to the Red Sox. If the Yankees and southpaw Max Fried (2.92 ERA) can take care of business against the White Sox in a bullpen game opened by Fraser Ellard (4.50 ERA in 16 appearances), they’ll have the chance to pull into a tie with the Jays. Toronto has a tough task tonight with Boston ace Garrett Crochet (2.69 ERA) on the mound against Max Scherzer (5.06 ERA in 16 starts). It’s worth noting that the Yankees would need to make up another game even after today, as the Jays hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs.
2. Reds, Greene take on Skenes in pivotal pitchers’ duel:
The Mets bested the Cubs in a back-and-forth series opener last night, while the Reds dropped their series opener against Pittsburgh to fall one game back in the Wild Card race. That’s a significant drop with just a handful of games to go, and the road doesn’t get any easier with NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes standing in their way tonight. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they’re able to counter with their own ace. Hunter Greene has been limited to just 18 starts by injury, he’s pitched to a 2.74 ERA and struck out 31.5% of his opponents when healthy.
3. Fry hospitalized following hit-by-pitch:
A scary scene took place in yesterday’s game between the Tigers and Guardians when Cleveland designated hitter David Fry was struck in the face by a 99 mph fastball from reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. As noted by MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins, Fry stayed conscious the entire time but was being held for observation overnight at a local hospital. The extent of Fry’s injuries aren’t yet known, but it seems reasonable to expect the injury could sideline him for the final week of the regular season and into the playoffs, should the Guardians manage to sustain their incredible comeback. Last night’s 5-2 win pulled Cleveland into a tie with a reeling Detroit club. Tonight’s game will pit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA) against Guards righty Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA).
It really isn’t fair to Skubal that he might have one more chance to blow his CYA on the last day of the season if Detroit hasn’t clinched by then. Baseball is wild.
You don’t get to play the Paris Hilton card in baseball.
He went 6 innings and gave up 1 or 2 earned yesterday that did not destroy his cy young chances
Even if he is really bad on the last day he still wins it unless he throws a yes-hitter
sad – Agreed, actually only one earned run allowed.
However …… 2 of the unearned runs were on his throwing error. He also had a balk and a wild pitch.
So even though his pitching last night was solid as usual, would Cy voters take all the other stuff into consideration when voting?
I guess the question is, does the Cy go to the best season-long pitching performance? Or does it go to the best pitcher? There’s a difference.
This one is lining up to be a memorable finish for sure. I think in general it *should* be given to the best pitcher of that season. To that end unless he has a truly historical meltdown at the very end I think it has to be Skubal.
Whether or not the guy’s team made the playoffs should be irrelevant. I don’t think metrics that the team as a whole has a hand in (W-L record) should be TOTALLY disregarded but they shouldn’t get a major emphasis either. But if you have two candidates who are otherwise very close but one guy was able to grind out a healthy number of wins while the other left a ton of no-decisions, I am okay with giving a little credit for those wins as a separating factor.
I also don’t think how two legit CYA candidates perform head to head against each other in a random game over the course of the season could or would or should have any bearing on the final voting, but that said given the circumstances where we very well could see Skubal vs Crochet on Sunday with winner clinching the final wild card….voters are going to remember it if one guy shows up with a massively clutch performance and the other doesn’t. Would that be enough to actually swing the results, probably depends on how bad of a difference we are talking. But I think it is fair to say that would present Crochet’s last, best opportunity to change anyone’s mind that it should be him instead of Skubal.
As much as I’m rooting for Crochet, I’m having a really difficult time seeing Skubal not taking the Cy Young voting even if Detroit misses the playoffs. The truth is Crochet was more or less knocked out of serious contention at the beginning of the month. His strikeout numbers will get him a handful of first place votes but even so, most voters will see Skubal as overall better. My guess is Skubal will easily win a majority of the first place votes and Crochet will get a few number 1 votes but be number 2 on almost every other ballot. The only possible thing would be if in Skubal’s last start (Against the Red Sox interestingly enough) he allows 10 runs in the first inning without getting an out. That might change things but the odds on that are less than the odds on the Guardians making this crazy dash at the end.
I don’t think that the CYA hinges on team performance, just like pitcher wins and losses shouldn’t matter that much. Too many variables beyond a starter’s control to always pin a W or an L on him. Look at advanced metrics, at least something like FIP to along with other metrics but don’t just rely on ERA either.
Eh, it does in a way. Let’s say we were comparing a pitcher on the Rockies versus a pitcher on Phillies. Let’s say the numbers they can control such as FiP, strikeouts, etc are as close to equal as possible. The truth is the pitcher for the Phillies has the advantage of a better defense and better offense backing them. Not to mention the media is going pay more attention to the pitcher in the larger market. Possibly a better real world example will be Paul Skenes versus whoever might beat him out for the Cy Young award.
I tend to always look back at the 2005 Cy Young voting where Bartolo Colon won easily. His big claim to the award? He had a 21 win season for the Angels who won 95 games. But in pretty much every other category, Johan Santana smoked him. Johan came in third that year, by the way. Also behind Mariano Rivera who I’d argue strenuously that despite deserving recognition that year was not a more effective pitcher than Santana on the 83-win third place finishing small market Twins.
I want to agree with you because it shouldn’t hinge on team performance and I wish it wouldn’t, but unfortunately we have real world evidence to the contrary from 2016. As a die hard Sox fan I have no trouble admitting that Verlander should have won that CYA unanimously. As a matter of fact, Kluber and Sale were also so good that year that Porcello should not have even been in the top 3. But Porcello won 22 games and look at what happened.
Yeah, Porcello benefited from a 20 win season. But when you look at Porcello, Verlander, and Kluber’s numbers all side by side you can make a solid argument as to why Porcello deserves to be in the conversation for best pitcher that year.
I think that year was one of the best examples of the power of ranked voting. For those who voted first place for Verlander, they thought Porcello was second best. For those who voted for Kluber, same deal. Then Zach Britton’s year ended up shaking it up even more. You had the contingent of people arguing about why a reliever deserved the award. Porcello again benefited from that in probably taking the second or third place votes.
I tend to see Porcello as the compromise winner that year. As much as you can argue for one pitcher over another that year, there is a strong counter.
Reds fans know to never get your hopes up
Cincy still holds tie-breakers over both D’backs and Mets.
September baseball is the best — and tonight’s Mets game is the final regular season ballgame for ESPN as things stand.
The commenter “This one belongs to the Reds” is a prime example of that mentality.
Complacency going back a while is biting Tigers….and Cubs since they clinched. Losing is a habit, and it’s not easy to restart the engine when your roster isn’t special/superior to opponents.
Scary moment for Fry. Hope he’s OK
Hate to say it but his 560
Ops won’t be missed. Should be back as a hitter
Whether or not he’s an impactful hitter doesn’t make him any more or less deserving of our sympathy. No one wants to see anyone get drilled with a 99 MPH heater to the face. You can just wish him well and move on.
Quit being so judgmental. He’s just making an innocuous comment. Of course there’s sympathy. Everyone on the face of the planet knows that.
It was completely unnecessary. Not one part of “scary moment, hope he’s OK” invites any kind of discussion about his OPS or if he’s a vital cog in Cleveland’s lineup. Just leave it alone, it’s not the time or the place…
Fair enough. I thought it was a given, but I guess not. It should be typed out.
Toronto is 2 games up on the Yankees. They hold the tie breaker.
“It’s worth noting that the Yankees would need to make up another game even after today, as the Jays hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs.”
It was mentioned in the last sentence of the paragraph.
True but it also says they are within one game when technically they aren’t.
They are within one game in the standings, so I’d say that is technically true. Saying they’re 2 games up isn’t really accurate, because it gives the wrong impression about W-L. Having the tiebreaker makes it effectively like they’re 1.5 games up, but we really need some better notation since we often know the tiebreaker ahead of time.
Maybe we should say they’re 1.0+ games up?
I think Toronto does not hold onto the AL East and ends up playing at home vs. the Red Sox in a WC series.
That does feel like the most likely outcome.
Is it bad that I’m sort of rooting for this? I’d rather not have the Red Sox have to play a WC series in Yankee Stadium. As fun as it would be to beat them there, it’d be a very annoying way for the Sox to get eliminated xD
Didn’t the Red Sox eliminate their curse in 2004?
Fenway monster, yes, if the Red Sox can hold on !!
As a red Sox fan, I’d rather face the Yankees. Then again I just hope they get in
I have a wonderful life. Thanks for your concern.
The only chance of Skubal losing the Cy Young award would be if Garrett Crochet throws a complete game shutout vs. Toronto tonight and Skubal gives up 8+ ERs in 3 innings or less vs. Boston this weekend. Even if this happens, I still think Skubal would still hold a slight edge to bring home the hardware.
I agree, Saint Dorothy.
Skubal heavy favorite……but he gets to face weak ALC lineups double the time while Crochet faces Tor/NYY, etc. more. Crochet’s stats likely improve and Skubal’s probably suffer more than one thinks if the roles were reversed.
Crochet has not been as dominant in his last couple starts. He has given up 4 home runs and 4 walks in his Last 12 innings. He does have 21 strikeouts also. They pushed him back a day so he is ready for game 1 of the playoffs. ( fingers crossed) A great ,ace- like performance tonight will greatly enhance that opportunity. The bottom of the lineup came through last night. ( Lowe, Narvaez) . Need the vets to step up . Bregman, Story, Duran.
cdc – Isn’t that a questionable decision though to push him back to tonight?
I know it’s unlikely, but what if the Sox are in a must-win situation Sunday?
I think starting him yesterday would have made more sense. If he’s needed Sunday, he’d be available. And if he’s not needed, he gets an extra day of rest for the postseason. Seems like a no-brainer.
As much as Cora’s tinkering with the staff can get annoying, I think this was the right move. Crochet has been WAY better on full rest vs. 4 days, and he hasn’t been as sharp as he typically is his last couple of starts.
There is some risk – putting him out there on 4 days rest tonight but it is also against Scherzer who has not been faring well himself. They should be able to win this game with an effort from Crochet that is merely good rather than superhuman. I think putting him out there on 3 days rest yesterday would’ve been too crazy.
Not getting to have Crochet over the weekend could end up being painful, but if we survive we are lined up to have Crochet on full rest in game 1 of the wild card series which would be gigantic. Of course we need to get there first, but at the moment I think Bello needs the extra day of rest right now more than Crochet does, so all things considered I like the gamble.
Here’s hoping it pays off.
Dirty – Thanks for setting me straight! I had thought when somebody said he was pushed back that he was pushed back from yesterday to today, but now I realize that’s simply not the case.
So I agree, him on 3 days rest is probably not a good idea. And with a 3-game lead and just 5 games remaining, it’s highly doubtful they’d still be fighting for a playoff spot Sunday.
However, if Cora had at least half a brain and knew how to plan ahead, he’d have pitched Crochet on normal rest for at least one of his prior two starts instead of pitching him on extra rest. As usual, Cora sucks at planning.
Man you shoulda watched the game last night, talk about the umps gifting a win ….. if I was Springer I’d have been tossed for sure. I loved his quote, “If they want New York to win, then just tell me and give it to them already”.. You know it was a blown call when even Gargle Voice Flemming says so.
youtu.be/tjDBfEiYLLE?si=eL92LPX3Fh7cr1BP
Oh yeah, I did watch and those umps were dreadfully bad. We got real lucky.
Cora will start an opener in that game if it comes to it. What an idiot.
Giolito would be in line to start Sunday against the Tigers. Statically he hasn’t faired particularly well against the Tigers in the past as he is 6-8 with a 4.82 ERA in 21 career starts. His 63 earned runs allowed and 45 walks are second most against any opponent.
I must also acknowledge M. Yoshida ,who has been hitting well of late , 7 for his last 18 atbats batting cleanup.
The Guardians beating Skubal and the Tigers last night. Just incredible !! The Reds vs Pirates tonight,with Hunter Greene going against Paul Skenes in a matchup of Cy Young contenders is phenomenal. I’m rooting for Terry Francona.
cdc – Tito and Ben go way back, maybe Ben has instructed Skenes to be pulled early to help out Tito ;O)
And BTW the Sox are now up 3 games with 5 to go ….. they are definitely in, just like I have been saying for months!
FPG
Do you think Detroit gets in ??? If not what an epic collapse…
It’s Skenes last start of the year, they are not going to strain him to much.. Late September baseball at its finest.
cdc – I still think Houston is the odd man out, too many injuries.
Over under the Yankees actually overtake the Jays?
Need a lot of help from the Red Sox.
Not many things I’m sure of but, October baseball with Tito Francona is definitely a good one… records go out the window… all you need is a ticket to the dance to show the world you can become Denny Terrio…knock on wood…
olm – A ticket to the dance can also show the world you can become Elaine Benis.
youtube.com/shorts/rmg97obwVbo?si=7wXGaaNddCTgoLuV
It’s long overdue that MLB charges pitchers with earned runs if the error is on that pitcher himself.
It’s a loophole and can go away.
Defense is team-based.
I’ve said that as well since I was around 12. Ridiculous.
That reply was to SCOTTG3 btw
Defense is a team effort though btw
This is towards you, iron.
Stein – How does team defense affect it when the error is on that pitcher himself.? No other player was involved if he drops a popup or throws a ball away…?
Let’s Go Yankees!!!
Who would have thought that a September game between the Reds and Pirates would venture into “must watch” territory with serious playoff implications…