A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Rotation

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller met with reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic and Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune) on Tuesday afternoon. While the ramifications of Mike Shildt’s resignation were the main topic, Preller also touched on the Friars’ uncertain rotation going into 2026.

San Diego’s front office leader acknowledged that the starting staff “is a clear area of need” as they face free agent losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King. Cease is a lock to reject a qualifying offer and has long seemed likely to sign elsewhere. King will decline his end of a mutual option in favor of a $3.75MM buyout. The Padres seem likely to issue him a QO as well, and there’s a good chance he rejects that even after an injury-riddled season.

The Padres could try to bring King back. He was on track for a nine-figure deal until he suffered a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. That initially seemed to be a minor concern but wound up costing him almost three months. King missed a couple more weeks in August with knee inflammation and did not look as sharp in September. The Padres didn’t fully trust him in the postseason, using him out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series. It’s possible the rocky finish drops King from a five- or six-year asking price to a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs. That could be more in the Padres’ financial wheelhouse than a $125-150MM commitment would have been had King stayed healthy.

For the time being, the Padres need to operate as if Cease and King will not be back. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the clear #1 starter. Joe Musgrove should be on track for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. The Padres could keep an eye on his innings total, however.

Yu Darvish is signed for three more years but is coming off a 5.38 earned run average and entering his age-39 season. Randy Vásquez made 26 starts with a sub-4.00 ERA without missing any bats. Deadline pickup JP Sears was rocked over five MLB starts after the trade. He’s not a lock to be tendered a contract at a projected $3.5MM arbitration salary. The Padres should decline their $5MM option on Kyle Hart, while Matt Waldron is on the roster bubble after struggling in Triple-A.

It’s a thin group after the Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to the Royals for catcher Freddy Fermin at the deadline. That’s true even assuming Darvish returns. Kevin Acee of The Union-Tribune wrote earlier this month that Darvish has not firmly stated that he’ll play out his entire contract, which runs through the end of the 2028 season. The veteran righty missed most of the first half to elbow inflammation and just had the worst numbers of his career.

Preller didn’t provide many specifics but noted that he has had some conversations with Darvish early in the offseason. “We’ll keep talking to him over the course of the next couple of weeks to see what it all means for him,” he added. It doesn’t appear that Darvish has made any decision, but that’s another question hanging over an already light starting five.

It’s a familiar position for the Friars, who seemingly enter each offseason with one or two rotation holes and uncertainty about their ability to add short-term financial commitments. Two years ago, that manifested in building the Juan Soto return around King and pulling off a Spring Training deal to land Cease from the White Sox. They waited out the market last offseason to add Pivetta on a heavily backloaded four-year free agent contract.

The Padres have also had a decent amount of success building relievers back into starting pitchers. They gave Seth Lugo that opportunity after he spent years as a reliever with the Mets. King flourished in San Diego after beginning a rotation experiment with the Yankees. Kolek clearly wasn’t as impactful as Lugo or King had been, yet he also found enough success as a starter to pique the Royals’ interest in talks on Fermin.

That history led to speculation about the Padres giving Mason Miller another rotation look as soon as San Diego landed him from the A’s. Miller has been arguably the most dominant reliever in MLB over the past two seasons. He had limited rotation experience — 15 starts in the minors and six starts as a rookie — before the A’s moved him to the bullpen.

That wasn’t a question of talent so much as durability. Miller had fought shoulder and elbow injuries in the minors and lost most of his rookie season in 2023 to forearm tightness. He has stayed healthy as a reliever aside from a three-week absence in ’24 when he fractured his non-throwing hand (reportedly after hitting a table in frustration following a poor outing).

Adrian Morejon has been a full-time reliever for almost four seasons. He also moved to relief because of health concerns but had been a top starting pitching prospect. He had multiple shoulder and elbow injuries, one of which required Tommy John surgery in 2021. Morejon has been healthy for consecutive seasons and developed into one of the game’s best relievers. He’s coming off his first All-Star season and just fired 73 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball in 75 appearances.

Preller didn’t commit to roles for either pitcher but left open the possibility of stretching one or both back out. “We’ll definitely get Mason’s thoughts and hear what he thinks is best. We’ll see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise. Then we’ll have some clear direction for him of what that looks like,” he said regarding Miller. Preller expressed a similar sentiment on Morejon. “(He’s) a lefty that’s throwing three plus pitches with command and the ability to use him in different places in the game. I think that’ll be a conversation as we get into it, similar to Mason, about what that looks like here for next year.”

Moving either pitcher to the rotation would obviously deal a significant hit to a bullpen that was the best in MLB over the season’s last two months. The Padres already seem likely to lose closer Robert Suarez, who’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his deal and could command upwards of $15MM annually on a two-year contract in free agency.

Miller would be the heir apparent in the ninth inning if he’s not starting. If they move Miller to the rotation, Jeremiah Estrada probably becomes the favorite to close. Jason Adam could be in the mix as well, but he’s coming back from a season-ending quad rupture. David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez showed late-inning potential as rookies and could pitch their way into leverage roles if they’re able to throw enough strikes.