Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller met with reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic and Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune) on Tuesday afternoon. While the ramifications of Mike Shildt’s resignation were the main topic, Preller also touched on the Friars’ uncertain rotation going into 2026.
San Diego’s front office leader acknowledged that the starting staff “is a clear area of need” as they face free agent losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King. Cease is a lock to reject a qualifying offer and has long seemed likely to sign elsewhere. King will decline his end of a mutual option in favor of a $3.75MM buyout. The Padres seem likely to issue him a QO as well, and there’s a good chance he rejects that even after an injury-riddled season.
The Padres could try to bring King back. He was on track for a nine-figure deal until he suffered a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. That initially seemed to be a minor concern but wound up costing him almost three months. King missed a couple more weeks in August with knee inflammation and did not look as sharp in September. The Padres didn’t fully trust him in the postseason, using him out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series. It’s possible the rocky finish drops King from a five- or six-year asking price to a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs. That could be more in the Padres’ financial wheelhouse than a $125-150MM commitment would have been had King stayed healthy.
For the time being, the Padres need to operate as if Cease and King will not be back. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the clear #1 starter. Joe Musgrove should be on track for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. The Padres could keep an eye on his innings total, however.
Yu Darvish is signed for three more years but is coming off a 5.38 earned run average and entering his age-39 season. Randy Vásquez made 26 starts with a sub-4.00 ERA without missing any bats. Deadline pickup JP Sears was rocked over five MLB starts after the trade. He’s not a lock to be tendered a contract at a projected $3.5MM arbitration salary. The Padres should decline their $5MM option on Kyle Hart, while Matt Waldron is on the roster bubble after struggling in Triple-A.
It’s a thin group after the Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to the Royals for catcher Freddy Fermin at the deadline. That’s true even assuming Darvish returns. Kevin Acee of The Union-Tribune wrote earlier this month that Darvish has not firmly stated that he’ll play out his entire contract, which runs through the end of the 2028 season. The veteran righty missed most of the first half to elbow inflammation and just had the worst numbers of his career.
Preller didn’t provide many specifics but noted that he has had some conversations with Darvish early in the offseason. “We’ll keep talking to him over the course of the next couple of weeks to see what it all means for him,” he added. It doesn’t appear that Darvish has made any decision, but that’s another question hanging over an already light starting five.
It’s a familiar position for the Friars, who seemingly enter each offseason with one or two rotation holes and uncertainty about their ability to add short-term financial commitments. Two years ago, that manifested in building the Juan Soto return around King and pulling off a Spring Training deal to land Cease from the White Sox. They waited out the market last offseason to add Pivetta on a heavily backloaded four-year free agent contract.
The Padres have also had a decent amount of success building relievers back into starting pitchers. They gave Seth Lugo that opportunity after he spent years as a reliever with the Mets. King flourished in San Diego after beginning a rotation experiment with the Yankees. Kolek clearly wasn’t as impactful as Lugo or King had been, yet he also found enough success as a starter to pique the Royals’ interest in talks on Fermin.
That history led to speculation about the Padres giving Mason Miller another rotation look as soon as San Diego landed him from the A’s. Miller has been arguably the most dominant reliever in MLB over the past two seasons. He had limited rotation experience — 15 starts in the minors and six starts as a rookie — before the A’s moved him to the bullpen.
That wasn’t a question of talent so much as durability. Miller had fought shoulder and elbow injuries in the minors and lost most of his rookie season in 2023 to forearm tightness. He has stayed healthy as a reliever aside from a three-week absence in ’24 when he fractured his non-throwing hand (reportedly after hitting a table in frustration following a poor outing).
Adrian Morejon has been a full-time reliever for almost four seasons. He also moved to relief because of health concerns but had been a top starting pitching prospect. He had multiple shoulder and elbow injuries, one of which required Tommy John surgery in 2021. Morejon has been healthy for consecutive seasons and developed into one of the game’s best relievers. He’s coming off his first All-Star season and just fired 73 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball in 75 appearances.
Preller didn’t commit to roles for either pitcher but left open the possibility of stretching one or both back out. “We’ll definitely get Mason’s thoughts and hear what he thinks is best. We’ll see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise. Then we’ll have some clear direction for him of what that looks like,” he said regarding Miller. Preller expressed a similar sentiment on Morejon. “(He’s) a lefty that’s throwing three plus pitches with command and the ability to use him in different places in the game. I think that’ll be a conversation as we get into it, similar to Mason, about what that looks like here for next year.”
Moving either pitcher to the rotation would obviously deal a significant hit to a bullpen that was the best in MLB over the season’s last two months. The Padres already seem likely to lose closer Robert Suarez, who’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his deal and could command upwards of $15MM annually on a two-year contract in free agency.
Miller would be the heir apparent in the ninth inning if he’s not starting. If they move Miller to the rotation, Jeremiah Estrada probably becomes the favorite to close. Jason Adam could be in the mix as well, but he’s coming back from a season-ending quad rupture. David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez showed late-inning potential as rookies and could pitch their way into leverage roles if they’re able to throw enough strikes.
Lovett has opt outs after 2026 and 2027.
Pivetta. (iPhone spell check)
Gotta love Lyle Lovett.
“Outta my way Rooster boy”
Yeah. If Pivetta is anywhere near as effective as he was this season he’s gone at year end.
Convert Miller to a starter. Sign Yates to take his bullpen spot. Because it’s Preller, trade Yates to the Dodgers for Scott so you have a trade. Claim Yates off of the waiver wire when the Dodgers release him 5 minutes later.
Always happy to help.
Didn’t Miller say he wants an extension before converting to the rotation?
Miller’s 27 and 4 years away from free agency. Given all his injuries I’d probably be going the arb route with him.
He has 34 years before he can be a free agent? What the heck?
/s
Given his past history, don’t mess with Miller and be happy you have him. You gave up a lot and imagine if he gets hurt because of a starter’s routine.
One of the reasons that Miller was made available in trade was his requests to be moved back into the rotation, so that is certainly an option.
In spring training prior to the 2025 season Preller spoke about the internal discussions about Morejon moving back into the rotation. That was something they kicked down the road due to him having so few IP in 2023 due to injury and just 60 IP in 2024. He is also an option.
I think in the end, with Musgrove returning and hopefully Darvish’s personal issues that forced him to take unpaid time off in 2025 in the rear-view mirror, Preller will go looking for a middle of the rotation starter to plug in behind Pivetta and Musgrove.
As for the rest of your post. No.
Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance!
You mean 2024
Miguel Mendez is going to have to go on the 40 man or he’ll probably be taken in the rule 5. He’s not going to be ready right away, needs more time and to start having success at AA but maybe a call up later in the season since he should be rostered.
Jhony Brito should return from his surgery at some point too. Not sure if he’s a viable SP option anymore but he’s done it before and there’s so many good bullpen options it might make sense to try to stretch him out when he’s back.
Mendez is a real talent but you’re right he needs to show success at AA for a few months before being called up. It’s more likely that his window is 2027.
Jagger Haynes is another on that timetable. He needs to add a pitch that will keep RHB honest and when he does, he will be a solid possibility for a back of the rotation starter.
I watched him pitch a couple of games and try to follow his progress.. Would be nice to see better command of his pitches and on-field success, hopefully this next year.
He has that gyro ball that is great against lefties but when a RHB is at the plate he needs something else to balance it. RHB tend to just sit on his FB and hit it hard. He started working on a cutter last season and that may be the answer. You see it in his pitch charts as a FB at 88-89, about 4 mph slower than his 4 seam FB.
Morejon doesn’t get nearly enough national attention for how good he is. Think he could be a great starter, but its so nice having a lefty like him in the pen.
Musgrove should be fine to start next season. Darvish is an issue because his elbow is jacked, doesn’t want surgery so is trying to piece it together with a lower arm slot.
If Darvish does decide to retire that would free up 16m, 18m in tax. He probably doesn’t fulfill his contract but may still give it another go next season.
A couple things.
First, the chickens are coming home to roost for the Padres. Handing out those ridiculous contracts is going to hamstring them into not being active in the FA market. This is where it’s really going to hurt – pitching.
Second, they’ll almost have to stretch Miller out and if/when they do, he’s likely to end up with a significant shoulder or arm injury. Mark. My. Words.
Bookmarking this when the Padres are still competitive in 2027/2028
Padres will have somewhere around 20-25m to spend if they keep payroll roughly the same as last year. With declining Diaz, hart and Suarez opting out. Actual payroll was 211m last year they will be around 187m to start free agency. Tax wise gives them about the same 20m or so under the first tax line as well.
If darvish does retire that would open up some more money.
As of now the rotation is Pivetta, Musgrove, darvish, Vasquez and Sears. Cease was pretty bad results wise last season (yes secondary stats were better than his era). King and Darvish both missed significant time last year as well. The concern is the depth isn’t there after the Fermin trade.
The good news is position player wise they are in a pretty good spot. With Tatis, Merrill and Laureano in the outfield. Manny, Xander, cronenworth, Fermin and sheets (OF/DH/1b) in the infield.
They will likely look to add a low cost 1b and utility infielder, along with a backup catcher (could use campusano). I expect the Padres to add inexpensive options here. Spending most of their money on starting pitching.
The possibility of making one or more of Miller, Morejon or Morgan a starter is an option. If they want to roll the dice health wise on the potential of one or more of them becoming a top of the rotation starter. It’s a fairly big risk with any of them given their health issues when they were starters.
The other option is to add a couple of lower cost starting options. Leave the pen as is and just throw 4/5 pen arms in every game they are winning. Which is what they did most of last year.
With miller, morejon, Adam (should be back around opening day), Estrada. With Morgan, Bradgley, Peralta and Matsui to fill out the pen.
Of course this Preller we are talking about and a trade can never be ruled out.
Better written than the article, IMO
Thanks Simm. 2026 will be interesting. Will ownership keep payroll in the CBT range again? what happens with Darvish?
I hope they don’t try to convert Morejon or Miller to SP. why deplete the strength of the team after doubling down on that strength (the Miller trade), and with Suarez leaving? It wasn’t just the Fermin deal that reduced our SP options…highly regarded Baez and Nett were jettisoned as well (again, the Miller trade).
Yeah they lost some farm depth in retro starting pitching as well.
The fact that they are talking about to darvish about the future probably means a they would prefer him to retire. Perhaps there is some form of a buyout with him as well.
I think the padres look at actual payroll more than the tax but obviously going over increase the actual payroll. I currently expect them to spend in the 20m range this offseason barring any major trade or darvish retiring.
The other thing to be on the lookout for his their tv deal. Sounds like espn is gonna by their rights. So we don’t know what that means yet. Will it be an increase or the same basic income platform they are currently on.
Lots of things up in the air now with no manager and Preller being on the last year of his deal.
If I had a guess. I’d expect an offseason a lot like last years. Where they wait out the market to find a bargain.
Let’s hope for a lucrative tv deal. I agree that this offseason won’t be too active as they really don’t have too many holes to fill and also won’t have much tradable assets anyway. SP/1B/DH. And AJ seems inclined to wait till late winter for bargain deals.
ESPN is in negotiations to buy much of the broadcasting available from MLB. That does not mean that the Padres broadcast rights are being sold individually.
We do know from Greupner that other than a small loss of revenue in the season when DSG defaulted, that the Padres have not had lower broadcast revenue.
I think we will see a much different offseason this time around. The Padres will not be able to wait until February if they want to be in the running for guys like O’Hearn and King. They also have more solid minor league candidates to fill holes. Last offseason Rosario was injured, Campusano was coming off a terrible season, and the depth options were Waldron, Kolek, Bergert, and Hart in the minors. This offseason Rosario is healthy, Campusano improved his defense and was the best hitter in AAA, and they still have depth like Waldron and Sears.
I think that the Padres will once again shop in the bargain barrel for depth but will once again open their wallets for a guy that is like Pivetta or like a 2023 King. It could be someone like Sean Newcomb in FA or Carmen Mlodzinski(SP?) or Jacob Latz in trade.
Last year they were quiet in the offseason and this year I suspect they will be as well. You’re sort of saying the same thing? If they bring back O’Hearn that probably does get done quickly. Don’t feel confident at all that they can afford King. Someone like him (or Pivetta) will need to be at a discount as well (as both PIvetta and King were), and of late anyway, AJ likes shopping in late winter.
Assuming O’Hearn (if signed) partially solves the 1B/DH void, the remaining focus becomes SP and RH power bat (DH/1B). Last offseason they needed a SP, two catchers, a LFer and a DH. This year’s holes seem fewer than last. I’m hoping Campy wins the backup C position and is given the opportunity to catch 60 games or so – Shildt didn’t seem to like him as a C option, we’ll see how the new manager feels about it. I like E. Rosario who brings some pop, but new managers (coaches) may not like the high K rate and prefer guys like Wagner/B. Johnson. This conversation might be funny to go back to in March and re-read, for a good laugh !
With as active as Preller always is, it’s usually very funny to go back and talk about what we thought he would do.
At the deadline, even though he had said that the Padres needed a couple of bats, additions to the pen, and a catcher, very few of us thought he would fill all the holes. Somehow, he got everything.
The Padres CBT payroll was $270 million in 2025. With the contracts for the 2 players likely to exercise their options, Peralta and Matsui, the option buyouts, and the expected arbitration raises added, the Padres are at about $221 million. That leaves about $49 million to stay at or under the 2025 level of spending.
Year-end 40-man payroll was at $214.7 million. Again, with the contracts for the 2 players likely to exercise their options, Peralta and Matsui, the option buyouts, and the expected arbitration raises added, the Padres are at about $184.1 million. To stay at or under $214.7 million gives them $43.6 million in payroll flexibility.
We went into 2025 in a worse situation for position players, (remember Gurriel, Heyward, Joe, and Maldonado starting games at the beginning of the season?) and with Musgrove having had TJ in Oct. 2024, little depth in the pitching staff. Preller added Pivetta and we ended up with an average starting rotation, even without Musgrove and with both King and Darvish only making 15 starts each.
Web- Math is a little off.
214-187 =27m not 43m.
They are also in the 20m ish range under the first tax line. If they go over there is a 30% on the first 20m over. Which would also add to the actual payroll.
Nobody knows what they are willing to spend on actual payroll. Using last years number is prob a good place to start. My guess is the padres will spend 20-25m this offseason. Barring trading anyone or darvish retiring.
My math was a little off and so was yours.
$214.7 million – $184.1 million = $30.6 million.
When talking about the CBT payroll, both Greupner and John Seidler have said in the past year that the 2025 payroll was at a sustainable level. Both said that before the trade deadline when the Padres added about $3.5 million to payroll, so something in the $266-267 million range of CBT payroll is the level of spending they were talking about when they said it was sustainable.
Those additions at the deadline were:
A prorated portion of the MLB minimum for Cortes, or about $253k.
About $262k for Fermin
About $1.3 million for Laureano.
About $1.17 million for O’Hearn
A total of about $512k on Miller and Sears
$270.9 million – $3.5 million = a $267.4 million CBT payroll that they said was sustainable.
$267 million – $221 million = $46 million in CBT payroll leeway.
It would seem from their comments that they are willing to spend somewhere between $30 million and $46 million depending on whether you are talking about 40-man payroll or CBT payroll.
With so little needing to be done, the Padres are in a great place going into the offseason.
While they did have a high tax, actual payroll is all that matters. Especially in a year they may not have a QO player at the end of next year (maybe morejon).
When they say payroll is sustainable that doesn’t mean they are just looking at tax number. What they are actually paying is what matters the most. Their actual payroll of around 211/214 is the number. Now they could go over that number some but they aren’t likely going to spend 46m and blow pass that number. That would put them in the second tax as a second time offender increasing the tax rate.
With the tax hit spending 46m would raise their actual payroll to around 240m. That would be a sizable jump from last years. I have them at 187m now (that’s not an accurate number because it has some arbitrary guesses from sites as well as options not being picked up). So give or take a couple million on that number. So your 184 number could be right. If I use that number 184 + 46 =230m plus tax would be around 240m. Give or take a few million.
Reports are payroll was at 211m you said 214m also not worth arguing over. Either way 230/240m is a decent chunk over either number. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t add 15+m to last year’s payroll. Ticket price went up again next year. So your 30-46m maybe pretty accurate on what they are willing to do. I use more of a 20-25m if last year is a hard number. Though I have no idea if it is.
If they are willing to spend 230/240m in actual payroll (including tax) they would allow them to address their needs pretty nicely. If it’s closer to 20/25m that gives them less options. Either way I expect them to spend the lion share on starting pitching.
Preller will likely look to do a trade or two to fill one of their holes. He could also get creative with a deal like he did with Pivetta. Since pivetta maybe a free agent again after next year. We also still have the possibility of darvish retiring which would add 16m (18m tax number). In a couple of weeks or so the picture should be a little clearer. We won’t get any payroll number from the padres other than…we will have a competitive team type comments or it’s sustainable.
Miller may have most value as a closer.
His health as a starter is a serious concern.
David Morgan has the arm and stuff to be a starter.
MIguel Mendez, Francis Pena, Omar Cruz, Bradgley Rodriquez should get tryouts as starters
Sign a few starters as FA’s on reasonable 1 year deals looking to restart their careers and as “depth pieces”.
Work the waiver wire.
Fix Sears and unlock more of his potential.
A few creative trades may be in order.
Time to find a few diamonds in the rough and coach them up into very effective starters
Spencer Turnbulll could be a back of the rotation reclamation project for the right price..
Matthew Boyd finally had that All Star break out year for the Cubs after getting healthy for an entire year.
Padres need to find a few of those kind of guys.
Could also get creative and deal one of their best lower minors
top pitching prospects for a young major league ready starter
blocked by a team with a deeper 40 man pitching roster.
Pivetta is solid, Musgrove coming off TJ I hope can be serviceable, Darvish is a huge question mark. Will not miss Cease, I don’t care what the secondary stats said, when he was up there they would lose, he was an absolute liability, if someone is dumb enough to ignore the QO and give the Padres a pick that is an absolute win. King when healthy is very reliable. His gets a lot of soft contact. The only question will be the offers he gets after the injury season. Does he accept the QO and have a prove it year if the offers are bad? Maybe, maybe not.
Sears can’t be considered a serious option to pitch at all.
Be interesting to see what Preller does on the free agent market. His staff can usually find a diamond or two in the rough.
There is no chance that King takes the Q.O. He can always sign a Frankie Montas 1 + 1 player option deal if he doesn’t get the offers he wants.
If King accepts the QO that is a huge win for the Padres. Sears is in SD working with Niebla and the pitching lab now. Don’t be surprised if he is a solid option at the back of the rotation in 2026 and puts up a low to mid 4 ERA.
I was not as excited about the Sears acquisition as others and his post-trade struggles were disappointing. Some have given up on him as a rotation piece but I’m still expecting he could perform at career norms, which is about low to mid 4 ERA., hopefully a #5 SP. Would be great to have that lefty in the rotation eating up innings..
There’s no reason to slot two starters making a combined $35M into the bullpen. Padres need depth/backend signings, sure, but they also need someone to pair with Pivetta (assuming his breakout is real) at the TOR. Short-term, high-AAV deal with King should be the #1 priority. Woodruff would also be a similarly high-risk, high-reward target.
O’Hearn would be welcome, but I’d much rather see some RH power at 1B/DH/bench. Lack of RH power doomed them vs Cubs, and Sheets performed well enough that I’m find handing him the reins against RHPs.
It’s completely backwards to take two starters making considerable money with injury concerns and shuffle them into the BP which is overflowing with talent. Who are you sending down in this case? Matsui, who is still owed $19M? Even with the loss of Suarez they still have a ton of BP depth with Morgan, Rodriguez, Marinaccio, and Reynolds as the low-mid leverage arms, plus a solid Peralta. Sretching out Hoeing made a lot of sense and I’m surprised it didn’t happen this year.
I wouldn’t want anything to do with those arms listed except Littel, who could be a solid late-offseason pickup if his market fails to develop. All the rest are low-mid 4 SIERA guys (besides Marquez, who is much worse). Padres will pencil in Darvish and Musgrove for 160-180 IP (combined) and call it a day.
Jason Adam is a Padre next season. As for being a reliever, Musgrove certainly wouldn’t stand for it. He’s not that old and is expected to be fully recovered next season and in the rotation.
Even with losing Suarez the Padres have one of the best and deepest pens in baseball.
20 starts and 100 IP is more impactful than any reliever on the staff other than Miller or Morejon. Padres will start both Musgrove and Darvish.
Its Adam and the Padres are not losing him. He will be back sometime between March and early-May.
Padres will offer Sears arbitration. He won’t make much and will provide good depth.
Pivetta’s SIERA over those 4 seasons in Boston was 3.66. Those guys you mentioned were all over 4.
The Padres will start both Musgrove and Darvish and the goal is 200-240 IP combined.
ADAM was injured in early September, and the recovery time is 6-9 months until he is game ready. Preller indicated Adam would be in spring training. Whether or not he is on the opening day roster is in question but his availability early in the season is not. Preller and this article mentioned Adam as a possibility to be the closer if Miller is moved to the rotation.
@69/420
Actually, I didn’t say the same thing about Pivetta. You can read my comment, even! 🙂 mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/padres-nick-pivetta-agr…. One of my quick and dirty fantasy tricks every year is looking at starters who have the biggest negative difference between their ERA and SIERA sorted by IP. Guess who was near the top of that list going into 2025?
The 2025 Padres issues were primarily on the offense. Maybe I’d agree with you if the team went deeper into the playoffs, but tough to fault the rotation when the offense only scores 5 runs in 27 innings (5 runs their past 51 innings!)
6-9 months per the team and MLB.
@69/420
You’re welcome. Let’s check back on the five you mentioned after 2026 and see how they do. 🤝
“He could face a recovery time of six to nine months.” Per MLB.com
“The hope is that he’ll be able to return some time around the beginning of the 2026 season.” Per Kevin Acee as reported on this website.
“Despite the injury, Adam is expected to recover in six to nine months, which could impact the Padres’ postseason performance.” Per MLB.com
“RHP Jason Adam
Injury: Left quadriceps tendon rupture
Expected return: 2026
Status: Felt his left quad pop trying to make a play on a ball on Sept. 1. Underwent surgery on Sept. 3. Timetable for recovery is six to nine months. (Last updated: Oct. 2)”
– Per Padres.com website
I know, I know. You and Google know better than they do.
I think Musgrove will be alright once he returns, although I’ll expect the normal control issues run-up while he reestablishes himself. I’m not sure why peiple are so certain about Darvish retiring or restructuring his deal, seems a bit of fantasy. He looked brutal, and I know he’s only getting older, but he was effective as a playoff starter last year; I’d still give him a little bit of leash to figure it out. Pivetta seems like a solid #2/3. Vasquez has awful peripherals, but is an alright #5 (same with Sears). They desperately need King back to pair with Pivetta and maybe Musgrove or Darvish in a potential playoff series.
Even though the bullpen is a strength, I wouldn’t move Miller or Morejon, especially Morejon, who is a dominant lefty option. They can absorb the loss of Suarez here and even trade a little depth (Morgan? Rodriguez?) if the right deal showed up.
@Straightup Agree with all that, especially your thoughts about the bullpen. King or someone like King is the most critical need.
That’s a pretty weak rotation you’re projecting
Don’t have to fill multiple spots, just one and then add depth.
Musgrove just said he had been shooting for returning late in October this season if the Padres had gone deep in the playoffs and will be 100% with no limitations going into spring training in 2026. I think he knows better than you do about that subject.
Darvish missed 10 starts while on the restricted list for a personal issue involving his family. That had nothing to do with injuries and is unlikely to be repeated. After having 15 starts in 2025 getting to 20 in 2026 should not be an issue.
The offseason hasn’t started. Pivetta wasn’t signed until after camp opened. Kolek had never made a start. Bergert had finished 2024 in AA. Get back to me in February with that question.
I think Musgrove knows more than the writer on MLBTR. Maybe you should pay attention to what the player actually said instead of what someone wrote about what he said.
I answered you. Reading comprehension is difficult for you apparently.
Its October. It’s not even the offseason yet. Do you know when Preller made changes last offseason? Ok then, shut up. Not only are you wrong about nearly everything, but your pathetic whining is also getting annoying.
if king gets the QO it is probably in his best interest to accept it unless he is looking for security beyond the possible lockout/CBA stuff coming up.
He can definitely get a 2-year deal with a player option at minimum. He’s too talented even with the injury risk. I do think he’s a prudent guy and I could see him doing a lower-than-expected long-term AAV if he has worries about the CBA. Another injured year and an extended lockout could put a real damper on his earning potential.
I don’t know – that is essentially a 50-60mm deal + an option year you are looking at t,o beat the QO and in a year entering the CBA that is going to be a little tough to swallow
You want to pay two starters $36 million to pitch in the bullpen while having to spend another $50+ million to add three more arms to the rotation?
Rsox- yeah that isn’t going to happen. Both Musgrove and Darvish will be starters next year unless Darvish retires.
The Padres knew they wouldn’t have Musgrove which is why they signed Pivetta. Darvish getting injured and missing half the season certainly was not in the plan but neither was King missing most of the season or Cease regressin. As it stands the Padres will have to replace King and Cease, maybe they tender Sears or re-sign Cortes but either way that’s two starters and your plan would really require 4 and given the team’s already high payroll putting Darvish and Musgrove in the bullpen while having to sign 4 starters, plus addressing the offense would put the Padres payroll in a place they are not likely to want to go
The Padres starting rotation finished as league average and that was with missing Musgrove all season and Darvish and King for more than half the season each. Not to mention the unexpected regression by Cease.
Personally, I would be happy if they did that again but would like to see them add another middle of the rotation starter. Possibly even bring back King on a prove it kind of 3-4 year contract with an opt out after the first season.
Pitching was not the Padres issue. Their below league average batting was the major issue. Padres need to generate more power in that lineup. Their position player depth needs to generate more than the 51 OPS+ they got from the likes of Iglesias, Wade, Heyward, Lockridge, Maldonado, et al from their bench in 2025.
There are people in the minors that may help. Rosario is healthy again. We expected him to be part of the bench in 2025 before he broke his foot in winter ball and then had surgery for a hernia once he recovered from breaking his foot. He both hits for power and plays good infield defense. Campusano improved his play behind the plate and was the best hitter in AAA in 2025. He would be a solid piece to slot in at C/DH/1B. Tirso Ornelas got a call up and then got hurt and missed most of the season in AAA. He can hit and play either corner OF position. Bryce Johnson finally showed he can hit pitching at this level and he plays solid D at all 3 OF positions. Still need more depth, but that is a good start on filling some holes.
Preller needs to stay away from ancient fill ins like Gurriel, Maldonado, Iglesias, and Heyward for those holes.
Nice job editing your post after I answered.
Campusano was the best hitter of any kind in AAA this season with a .336/.441/.595/1.036 slashline and 25 HR, improved his defense to the point he was above average overall, and when he caught the pitchers had an ERA a point lower than the team average.
Can you name a single player with 400+ PA in AAA in a season with an OPS over 1.000 that didn’t make it in the majors? When you find out that it’s never happened in the history of MLB, come on back and admit you don’t know what you are talking about.
In the playoffs, most teams have ONE catcher that plays and one backup in case that player is injured. Fermin was the one catcher. Raleigh has caught every inning in the playoffs for the Mariners. Kirk caught every inning for the Blue Jays. Smith caught every inning for the Dodgers. Realmuto for the Phillies. Contreras for the Brewers. Kelly for the Cubs. You seeing the pattern here?
Ornelas had 14 at bats over 4 starts in the majors. If you are judging him off that small of a sample size, then you have no business discussing baseball at all. He was hurt at the time he was called up in April and went on the IL in AAA for 2 months in June. After he returned, he had an OPS close to .900 and hit 7 HRs in 35 games.
That you don’t know just how good those guys are shows how little you know about the Padres. Try sticking to subjects you understand.
You may want to tell Preller that. In his presser on Tuesday he indicated Sears would be in the running for a starting position. What does he know.
He also said “Joe Musgrove is set to return from Tommy John surgery, and he’ll front the rotation alongside Nick Pivetta”
I know, I know. He is just the POBO and you certainly know more than he does about the situation.
@69th Rounder
Campusano was on the playoff roster. The Padres carried three catchers.
mlb.com/news/padres-2025-nl-wild-card-series-roste…
Preller also make it clear in this press conference that Campusano will be given a new opportunity to make the big league roster out of Spring Training.
Musgrove will be in the rotation next year. They may keep his innings in check. I’d expect him to throw 150-175 innings if he stays healthy. The padres will find a way to give him a two week break probably around the all star game. The padres have been pretty good at handling pitchers they want to monitor innings on.
The other dude is correct about relying on Darvish. He definitely isn’t reliable at this point in his career to start 30 games. Heck he may even retire.
Sears will be tendered a contract and will be in the mix this spring.
Padres will add another starter or two this winter. Probably more of a mid level starter unless Darvish retires which would free up more money to perhaps look at starter in the 2-3 range.
Campusano may get a chance with the padres next season but given how they used him this year I wouldn’t count on it. I could even see him being traded this offseason. If not he will have to hit extremely well this spring and perhaps he can be a DH/1b/C. They just don’t seem to trust him for whatever reason. The Padres play their aaa games in El Paso means take any of those results with a skeptic eye.
Johnson will likely fill the 4th outfielder role.
Padres will need to add a 1b/dh, back up catcher, and a utility infielder. The last two will likely be inexpensive additions. Could probably just bring Diaz back on a cheap deal. Would be nice to find a decent hitting utility guy.
Adam as discussed is expected back around opening day. He is a reliever so there isn’t a long build up time.
The best thing for the padres would be for Darvish to retire.
I think there is a real chance at least 1 of the padres pen arms being stretched out next year. I actually think morejon is more likely than miller.
I agree with much of what you said in that post.
Musgrove said he will be ready to go with no limitations. That may still mean 150-170 IP, but he said no limitations. In both 2021 and 2022 he had 180+ IP. That was what he said he was expecting from himself next season. I believe him and believe that now that the TJ is behind him that he can do it instead of fighting through the injury like he did in 2023 and 2024.
Darvish missed a month to injury. The rest of the time off was for personal family reasons. No one is expecting him to go 33 starts and a 3.00 ERA, but 18-20 starts and a low to mid 4 ERA is a reasonable expectation. The best thing for the Padres would be for Darvish to return to his 2024 form even if it’s only for 16 starts. The Padres need SP.
As long as Preller is still the GM, Sears will be tendered a contract and be in the mix. I am pretty sure that Sears still has an option year left, too. Preller also said that the Padres will be looking for 2 SP. That does not preclude Sears being part of the rotation. Teams obviously need depth because of inevitable injuries to the starting pitching. I can’t remember the last time a team got through a season with just 5 players starting games.
Diaz is not coming back. He was a horrible hitter, a 67 OPS+, that was only average defensively while the pitching staff had the same ERA with him behind the plate as with the Maldonado. He was not a difference maker behind the plate and didn’t hit. Fermin was a better in every aspect of the game and the Padres will not be paying the buyout plus another $3-5 million to bring back Diaz as a backup catcher. They may however sign someone to a minor league deal or trade for someone that ends up starting games at some point in the season. Preller is really good at finding guys that have been written off like Higgy, Sanchez, and Alfaro that are pretty good as a Padre.
Campusano took huge strides behind the plate and was about average defensively in AAA as well as handling the staff well. The staff in El Paso put up an ERA a full point lower with Campusano behind the plate than the team’s overall ERA. Considering the other catchers, that last part doesn’t mean as much as his improvement on defense. His bat is unassailable. He was the best hitter in AAA with over 300 PA last season by wRC+ and OPS+ which both factor in the ballpark and league he played in. Its ok to be skeptical about someone that was only good in El Paso, but that was not the case for Campusano since he was better on the road with a 157 wRC+ vs 143 in El Paso. He will get a shot as a C/DH/1B or he will be in a trade for a TOR starter.
Johnson may very well take that 4th OF position. He played bery well in his short time here last season. Isn’t it nice that we don’t have to talk about bringing in a starter at any OF position?
Going into the 2024-2025 offseason, Rosario was expected to lock down a utility IF spot. Then he broke his foot in winter league play. When he came back to the minors in mid-April he was visibly not fully healthy and then suffered a sports hernia in May that put him on the 60-day IL and he didn’t return to rehab outings until late-August. If he has a good spring, he will be a favorite to win a UT spot. He plays good defense and has power. Both things that the Padres need from their IF.
I think you may be right about a pen arm being stretched out. As several people have pointed out, Miller told the A’s he wanted to be a starter, and they said that was part of the considerations in trading him. Getting De Vries obviously helped. Morejon was a starter originally and according to Preller the only reason he was not stretched out for the 2025 season was that he had so few IP in 2023. Either one would be fine with me. Rather that it wasn’t both.
Web- the idea of stretching out a morejon or miller it’s much easier to replace a pen arm then find a top of the rotation starter. Which would be the hope that one of them could become. Of course the risk of injury is increased so it’s not a no brainer. Given the padres need for a top end starter I think it is worth the risk. Likely decided in spring as the feel their way through it.
Padres (perhaps shildt) didn’t let campy catch a single game in the majors this year. That was pretty strange to me considering how bad the catching was until the Fermin trade. So the raises questions if he is a real option. Heck they even added maldy back to the playoff roster to make sure campy didn’t catch in the postseason with Diaz down. So they may look at him as more of a DH type player. Idk, but weird.
I do agree the padres will find a way to bring in a couple of starters. Sears spot in the rotation is not guaranteed. Like neither is Vasquez. They could look at both of them as depth pieces depending on who else is in the mix.
Darvish returing would be the best outcome for the padres. The money he is owed doesn’t necessarily get you a big upgrade but add it with some more money and they could find a quality (potential) upgrade. Perhaps even just to bring back king. If they have a Pivetta, king (type), Musgrove, morejon/miller, Vasquez/sears (prob a minor league deal or two to compete) for the 5th spot. I could even see them trade for a guy like Pablo Lopez.
If that happened they would also still have some money to address 1b/dh and the bench.
The offseason will be built around pitching. Which starts with what Darvish decides to do.
Preller talked about the possibility of stretching out Miller in his end of season presser on Tuesday. I think that it’s something that will be decided by December so whichever pitcher they decide to move to starting can begin his offseason conditioning and throwing program with an eye towards starting. The workouts are different with a much bigger focus on stamina. It’s definitely not a no brainer and I am really glad I don’t have to make that decision.
In the playoffs, almost every team uses just one catcher and I believe that in this postseason every team has had the same catcher start every game. The only reasons to have a backup for the postseason is in case of injury or a double switch late in games to bring in a pinch hitter. That the Padres added Madonado was not an indication that they didn’t want Campusano to catch, just that Maldonado was their #1 starting pitcher’s personal caddy for 4 months of the season prior to acquiring Fermin. That Campusano caught more games than he played at DH or 1B in AAA indicates the Padres still believe he is a viable catcher. He played those other positions in AAA because he is more than a viable hitter, he is exceptional.
Totally agree about Sears and Vasquez. No matter what I think is possible, I never discount Preller’s ability to bring in pitching that excels in a Padre uniform.
16 or more starts of a 3.31 ERA Darvish at just $15 million would be an absolute bargain on today’s market. That would be the ideal outcome. I don’t think that is the most likely outcome. 20+ starts of low to mid 4s ERA Darvish at just $15 million would be 2nd best. I think that is by far the most likely outcome. The next best thing after those 2 would be for him to retire. What we don’t want is a repeat of 2025, but since he and the powers that be on the team have said that his struggles were mostly attributable to the time off due to family problems and not from his elbow issues early in the season, I would think the likelihood of a repeat is low.
Also remember that Darvish is far more than just a member of the staff, he is essentially a coach for the staff. several pitchers including King and Estrada, have publicly attributed some of their success to grips and approaches that Darvish taught them. Then there is the example that his fanatical preparation provides. His value goes beyond what he does on the field and 20+ starts and a 4.0-4.5 ERA would be more than enough to make keeping him at $15 million worth the investment for the Padres.
1B and DH are not a hugely expensive positions to address and the Padres are in an enviable position of having 2025’s best AAA hitter available to slot in as the RH side of the platoon at either of those positions while catching some as well.
From Preller’s comments I believe that Fermin will catch a similar percentage of games in 2026 to the 38 of 53 games he started after the trade in 2025. That would give the backup catcher only 50-60 starts behind the plate meaning they would need to play other positions.
Both from the position they are in with only 405.2 IP returning to the rotation and the team needing 860-880 from their SP, and from Preller’s comments about wanting to bring in 2 SP, I also think that what Preller does this offseason will revolve around his ability to sign, trade for, or convert those SP. As Preller said, regardless of Darvish’s decision about continuing to pitch, the team wants to add 2 SP. How much they spend will only be affected in a small way because Darvish is only owed what veteran #4-#5 starters are getting paid today.
The Padres are in the best position going into the offseason that they have been in for years because all they need is position player depth and a couple SP. This offseason is one in which we as fans can relax knowing that Preller can easily fill the holes.
I think you consider stretching out Miller if Suarez stays, but if he opts out then i would keep Miller as the Closer
It’s almost a given that Suarez will opt out of the 2/16 he has left on his contract. The Padres are in a great position with Miller, Estrada, Adam, and Morejon available as possible closers. I agree with you that Miller would be the best option of those 4 as closer. Not many guys even capable of throwing 104.5 and his 54.2% SO rate with the Padres was insane.
Please keep Miller in the pen as the closer
Odds are if Suarez does opt out, Miller becomes the closer, reason being already one of the top closers in MLB, two, would be more of a plus as closer than a starter every five days. I see Preller looking for a couple of starters, I really don’t see Darvish as a legit rotation piece for the Padres in 2026. So, the rotation has a couple of holes to fill where the BP is really pretty solid without Suarez. Why make an additional hole in the BP with moving Miller into the rotation which still has a hole or two with putting Miller as a starter in 2026.
Jason Adam will be back at some point early in next season. Possibly as early as opening day, but most likely in early-May.
The rest of your comment was not realistic. Musgrove and Darvish will be counted on as the #2 and possibly #3 starters to start the season.
None of the guys you mentioned can step into that role, but they may be added to fill the back of the rotation.
No one is arguing they don’t need depth but with a payroll already sitting around $227 million for next season adding 3 or 4 starters plus offense is not feasible unless Preller gets the go-ahead to push the payroll well over the final luxury tax threshold. In reality perhaps they try and re-sign King, maybe add a Houser or a Chris Bassit or Merrill Kelly to the mix and add a hitter. Counting on guys like Ramon Laureano and Gavin Sheets to duplicate what they did this season so another proven hitter is needed in the OF/DH mix
You likely don’t sign King AND Bassit, it’s either/or. With Darvish/Musgrove/Pivetta that’s 4 starters and a Kelly or Houser makes 5 with Waldron/Vasquez/Brito on hand for MLB ready depth and Miguel Mendez, Jagger Haynes, Victor Lizarraga, and Eric Yost all possibly being ready at some point next season
6-9 months per the Padres and MLB. I am absolutely certain that they know more about the situation than Google.
All of the guys you mentioned are back of the rotation depth type starters. Guys with a SIERA over 4.
I have been correct far more often than I have been wrong. You on the other hand are wrong on everything today and yet you keep arguing. Are you Samuel or Ryan? Only two guys I know of that keep arguing after they have been shown to be wrong.
I wish I could tell you exactly what Preller plans to do to fill out the rotation next year, but fact is we don’t know, right? I doubt they are relying on Musgrove and Darvish, and they lose Cease and King (maybe). But what I can say about the past Padres rotations is that they weren’t set in Fall of the previous year. And they had glaring holes in the offseason. AJ stated the obvious the other day when he emphasized that SP was the single greatest priority. He mentioned adding one or two SPs. I get your concerns, but based on past success in building rotations, i have some confidence. I wonder if the solutions will be short term deals, in advance of the likely 2027 shutdown.
We went into last offseason with Cease, King, Darvish and a whole pile of question marks. Waldron, Brito, and Vasquez were the most likely candidates for the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation when the 2024 season ended.
Then Preller went out and signed Pivetta after camp had already opened and then when the inevitable injuries hit brought up two guys, one that had struggled in AA the previous season and another that had never started in the majors before and had a 6.00 ERA when he was called up from El Paso.
Now there is Pivetta, Musgrove, Darvish, Vasquez and Sears penciled into the rotation and the offseason has not even begun yet.
I don’t believe that the prospect of a lockout will keep teams from singing long-term deals, because other than signing bonuses and deferrals, the salaries for those players are not being paid for games missed during a lockout. I don’t think that the Padres will be bidding on guys that might cost $30 million AAV, but then they don’t have many holes to fill other than a middle of the rotation starter.
My hope is that they sign King to a 3-4 year prove it type contract at about the AAV of the QO with an opt out after year one. If he performs well enough that he can get more in FA after 2026, then the Padres walk away happy and he is no longer subject to the QO.
New ownership group does not share the late PS drive to spend and win and very much seems to want to cut spending, obviously under the tax line. This is going to be a mess. It seems the Padres locked-in long term contracts are finally going to sink them. Sub-500 team in 2026.
They return almost their entire starting lineup minus Arraez at 1B (that might be addition by subtraction) and even with losing Suarez they have probably a top 5 bullpen in the league for next year.
As the article mentions SP is the major weakness but it was a middle of the road group this year when they won 90 games. I don’t see how they’re going to have that big of a drop off if they make even some mediocre additions at SP.
With the additions of Miller, Fermin and Laureano, no reason to think they can’t be even better in 2026 assuming they have a healthy Merrill, Musgrove, Laureano, Cronenworth and Bogaerts.
Only cronenworth didn’t miss significant time last year as well from that list. So it’s not like they have to be injury free all year. They just can’t have tons of bad injuries.
They could roll out exactly how they are right now and likely be about as good as last year. Outside of sheets nobody (a month or so of laureano) none of the position players had career years either.
Pivetta and morejon did have career years from the pitching side. I’d take the best that both Merrill and Tatis will be better next year than last year.
Easy to forget the padres LF and C production for most of the year was horrible.
King and Darvish both missed a lot of time and when they were back weren’t that great. Cease pitched all year but was also more bad than good results wise. Full year of miller, Laureano and Fermin are still upgrades over anyone in those spots they will lose (LF, C, Closer).
They do need to address starting pitching. Which they absolutely will add to that mix.
With that said no matter what they do they will not be favorites to win the division. That will be the dodgers no matter what. Padres should be in the mix playoff spot and should be able to 90+ games again next year.