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MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

Padres Notes: Payroll, Miller, Sears

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The Padres’ flurry of deadline dealings brought Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Nestor Cortes, Will Wagner and Freddy Fermin to San Diego. The slate of new acquisitions addressed major deficiencies in left field and behind the plate to varying levels while also deepening the pitching staff. It was another frenetic deadline for the Friars — one that was complicated not only by a lack of depth in the farm but also some financial constraints. The Padres operated with minimal payroll flexibility in the winter, and it seems ownership’s budgetary crunch carried over to the deadline.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that the Orioles and Brewers both sent substantial cash considerations to the Padres in the respective trades involving O’Hearn, Laureano and Cortes. Baltimore sent $3.324MM to San Diego, while Milwaukee included $2.169MM in cash. The combined $5,493,300 the Padres received in that pair of trades effectively pays the trio of O’Hearn, Laureano and Cortes down to the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the season. Each of the other four players acquired by the Padres (Miller, Sears, Wagner, Fermin) was earning scarcely more than the $760K minimum as a pre-arbitration player.

The Padres are still more than $25MM north of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource, so the influx of cash won’t help them stay under the tax threshold (or even out of the second penalty tier). It does, however, mean the Padres barely added anything to their actual cash payroll for the 2025 season. That’s seemingly been the bigger concern than the luxury threshold anyhow. Nick Pivetta’s four-year contract, for instance, came with a $13.75MM average annual value but pays him just $4MM in 2025 (a $1MM salary and $3MM signing bonus).

San Diego’s actual cash payroll sits a bit above $213MM. It’s not clear what sort of payroll expectations ownership will have for the 2026 season, but there’s already more than $166MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books. That doesn’t include the $6.5MM club option on Laureano, which seems like a lock to be exercised.

That number also fails to account for arbitration raises. Each of Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Gavin Sheets will be due raises on this year’s salaries ($4.8MM, $2MM and $1.6MM, respectively). Miller, Sears, Fermin and righty Bryan Hoeing will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Miller, in particular, will be in line for a notable salary. Closer Robert Suarez has a two-year, $16MM player option he’s likely to decline this winter, however, which would subtract an $8MM salary from the books.

Between Laureano’s option and the slate of arbitration raises, San Diego’s payroll can be reasonably expected to climb close to $200MM before making a single addition. Assuming Suarez indeed opts out, the Padres would be looking at a payroll in the $190-192MM range. If the goal is a payroll in the same realm as this year’s $213MM mark, that doesn’t leave a ton of additional space. Then again, each of Miller, Laureano, Fermin, Wagner and Sears proactively addressed some 2026 needs, and the Padres expect to welcome Joe Musgrove back to next year’s rotation after he missed the 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Due to that financial situation, the Padres presumably had to include more prospect capital in their deadline trades than if they didn’t need the other club to eat significant money. That’s a notable element as the Padres have traded away a large number of prospect in previous deals, so their farm system hasn’t been considered especially strong lately. Coming into this year, MLB.com ranked their farm 25th out of the 30 teams in the league, with Baseball America putting the Friars 26th.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres’ lack of impact talent was initially a roadblock in the Miller talks. Rosenthal notes that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller tried to line up a three-team deal. He asked the A’s to tell him which prospects they wanted from other clubs, with the goal of then acquiring those players to send them to the A’s for Miller. There were rumors the Padres were considering trading majors leaguers like Dylan Cease or Suarez, so perhaps Preller could have traded one of those guys for the prospects he needed to get Miller.

However, the A’s didn’t want to take that complicated route and wanted to just deal directly with one club. They got interest from clubs like the Yankees, Phillies and Mets, but those clubs weren’t willing to surrender their top prospects. Specifically, Rosenthal notes that the Phillies weren’t willing to include Andrew Painter while the Yanks wouldn’t part with Spencer Jones or George Lombard Jr.

The Padres were eventually able to get the deal done, despite their weak farm system, by including top prospect Leo De Vries. They also included pitching prospects Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Núñez but De Vries was the key piece to getting the deal done. Having now traded De Vries and several other prospects, the Friars will presumably have an even weaker farm system in next year’s rankings, but that is seemingly a price they were willing to pay in order to build a winning team here in 2025.

As for Sears, the other player who came to San Diego alongside Miller, he may be viewed more as depth than a key piece of the club’s push this year. He started for the club on Monday, allowing five earned runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks, before getting optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune notes that Sears may not be recalled in the remainder of the season, unless someone gets hurt. Michael King is on the injured list but has begun a rehab assignment, having thrown 3 1/3 innings in his first rehab start on Sunday. Once he’s healthy, the rotation will be Cease, King, Pivetta, Cortes and Yu Darvish. That would leave Sears in a depth role alongside guys like Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron.

Going forward, however, the path to a role opens up. Each of Cease, King and Cortes are impending free agents. Musgrove should fill one of those vacancies but that still leaves space for Sears to carve out a role in next year’s rotation.

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

Padres Acquire Mason Miller, JP Sears

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The Padres are once again grabbing deadline headlines, as they’ve swung a trade that’ll bring star closer Mason Miller and lefty JP Sears to San Diego while sending a four-player package led by top shortstop prospect Leo De Vries back to the Athletics. The A’s will also add right-handers Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Nunez in the blockbuster deal.  The deal is now official.

It’ll go down as one of the more stunning trades of the 2025 deadline. Miller is one of the sport’s most highly regarded relievers — an All-Star and fourth-place finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting just last season. He’s controlled for another four years beyond the current season. De Vries, meanwhile, currently sits as the No. 5 prospect in the entire sport on Baseball America’s latest rankings.

It also sets the stage for a fair bit of other dealing from the Padres, who’ve been discussing current closer Robert Suarez and righty Dylan Cease in trade talks. Either or both could change hands now in trades that simultaneously net younger talent and free up payroll space for San Diego to pursue upgrades in left field, behind the plate and/or on the bench. Both Miller and Sears are still in their pre-arbitration years and thus earning just over the league minimum. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that there are no current plans to trade Suarez, though with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the helm for the Padres, nothing should ever be expressly ruled out. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that both Suarez and Cease are still being discussed.

The addition of Miller strengthens what was already a powerhouse San Diego bullpen (though, as mentioned, could set the stage for a Suarez trade as well). San Diego relievers have pitched to an MLB-best 2.97 earned run average on the season and rank fifth with a collective 24.1% strikeout rate.

Miller, despite carrying a fairly pedestrian 3.76 ERA, will provide a massive upgrade. The majority of his trouble this year came in a rough month from early May to early June. He’s rattled off 14 innings of one-run ball with 18 strikeouts and four walks since June 15 and, of course, was one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the game a year ago. Miller has pitched 136 2/3 big league innings and carries a 3.16 ERA with a superlative 37.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He’s saved 48 games and tallied one hold in his career to date and has blown only six opportunities.

Certainly, the tools are there for Miller’s bottom-line results to align with the very best arms in the sport. No one in baseball throws harder than his average 101.1 mph four-seamer, and Miller’s 20.4% swinging-strike rate trails only Josh Hader and Fernando Cruz for the top mark among pitchers with even 10 innings pitched this season. Dating back to 2024, he’s fanned nearly 41% of his opponents and kept his walk rate under 10%. Even in an era where power arsenals with premium bat-missing ability seem to proliferate the sport, the 6’5″ Miller stands above the rest in a tier nearly unto himself.

It’s worth at least considering the possibility that Miller could return to the rotation at some point down the road. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggested last night that it was an idea the Padres had considered. Miller was drafted as a starter and made his big league debut in the Athletics’ rotation. Given the Friars’ lack of rotation depth and plethora of talented relievers, they could at least explore the idea of returning Miller to a starting role beginning next season, though there’s obviously some risk in removing him from a role in which he’s found such success.

Regardless of which role Miller holds in the long run, it seems likely he’ll work in relief for the balance of the current season. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible — though he will be this winter — and is controlled for four additional seasons, so it’s only natural that the asking price on the right-hander was exorbitant. The Padres have repeatedly rebuffed teams who’ve come calling for De Vries or top catching prospect Ethan Salas, but San Diego ultimately relented in order to acquire four-plus seasons of arguably the game’s most dominant reliever and Sears — a respectable back-of-the-rotation arm who can help solidify the staff for three-plus years in his own right.

Sears, 29, came to the A’s alongside Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina in the trade sending Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees. He’s the only one of the pitchers (on either side of the deal) that has held up without a major injury.

While Sears is a pure back-end starter, he’s been a durable source of competitive innings for the A’s. The 5’11” southpaw started 32 games in both 2023 and 2024, and he’s taken the mound 22 times in 2025. This year’s 4.95 ERA is a career-high, though like teammate Luis Severino, more of those struggles have come at home in what’s proving to be a hitter-friendly setting at West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park. Sears has a 5.48 ERA and has allowed 14 homers in 47 2/3 innings at home, compared to a 4.55 mark and nine round-trippers in 63 1/3 innings on the road.

Over Sears’ past 464 innings with the A’s, the lefty has worked to a combined 4.58 ERA. He’s fanned 20.1% of his opponents in that time and kept his walk rate to a strong 6.7%. Sears sits 92.2 mph on his four-seamer and couples that pitch with a slider that sits 79.5 mph and a changeup that’s averaging 83.4 mph this year. He’s averaging just over five innings per start.

Sears now slots into a rotation group that includes Cease (for now), Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Ryan Bergert and Randy Vasquez. Top starter Michael King has been out for more than two months but is expected to return before season’s end. Both Cease and King are free agents at season’s end.

San Diego has been hopeful of re-signing King, though that’s no guarantee. Next year, they’ll get Joe Musgrove back from Tommy John surgery. A 2026 rotation could well include Musgrove, Pivetta, Darvish, Sears and one of Bergert/Vasquez/Stephen Kolek, though the return of King or acquisition of other rotation arms obviously can’t be ruled out. Regardless, Sears adds some nice depth and will remain affordable. He also still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, giving the Friars plenty of flexibility with the composition of that staff.

The A’s have been reluctant to move Miller, but San Diego’s willingness to include De Vries surely pushed things over the edge. He’s the best prospect moved at a trade deadline since the Padres gutted their farm system to acquire Juan Soto three years ago. Today’s front offices are generally loath to part with prospects who’ve reached this level of acclaim, but the Preller-led Padres are the most aggressive in baseball when it comes to the trade market.

Still just 18 years old, De Vries is a switch-hitting shortstop with power who’s having success in High-A despite his youth. More advanced and experienced opponents haven’t fazed him. He’s hitting .245/.357/.410 (116 wRC+) with eight homers and eight steals despite being one of the youngest players in the league. He draws above-average grades across the board in most scouting reports, with his raw power, in particular, generating plus marks.

De Vries is listed at 6’2″ and 183 pounds, although given his age, he could still grow into more bulk and tap more into his raw power. Baseball America describes him as a potential “centerpiece of a big league club,” touting an all-fields approach from the left side of the plate and a pull-heavy approach from the right side that lets him get to that power more frequently. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen is a bit more bearish, albeit only relative to his elite ranking at BA and at MLB.com (where he’s ranked third in the game). Citing questions about his defensive aptitude and some swing-and-miss, FanGraphs’ report calls De Vries “only” a top-40 or so prospect in the game and has him as more of a strong regular than a superstar.

As with any prospect, there’s a fairly broad range of outcomes, but De Vries’ ceiling is higher than most and he’s on track to reach the majors at an uncommonly young age, giving the A’s more control over his peak physical seasons. A call to the majors in 2027 seems quite feasible, and in a best-case scenario he could even debut late next year. If De Vries incurs injuries or takes a bit longer to adjust to upper-level pitching, that debut could push back to 2028, but even then he’d be in just his age-21 season. Regardless, when the range of likely outcomes is generally agreed upon as something between “above-average everyday shortstop” to “superstar centerpiece of a team,” we’re talking about one of the game’s premier young talents.

De Vries is the clear headliner of the deal, but the three arms headed back to the A’s are hardly mere throw-ins. Nett and Baez were reportedly among the more sought-after prospects in the second tier of a thin Padres farm system. Both are posting strong numbers in Double-A this season.

Nett, 23, has started 17 games and pitched 74 1/3 innings. He’s logged a 3.39 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 42.3% ground-ball rate. Nett signed with the Padres as an undrafted free agent in 2022 and has pitched his way into genuine prospect status.

Baseball America ranked Nett seventh among San Diego prospects earlier this month. He sits third in their system at MLB.com and 12th at FanGraphs. He sits 95-97 mph with a fastball that can climb to 99 mph. Nett’s slider gets above-average grades from scouts and works with a cutter, changeup and curveball that could all use some additional refinement. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason and will surely be selected to the A’s 40-man roster by November — if he’s not called upon for a major league look in the season’s final two months.

Baez, meanwhile, ranked 16th in the system at BA, 13th at MLB.com and 27th at FanGraphs. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA in 20 Double-A starts this season but has averaged under five innings per outing. Baez sits in the low to mid-90s with his fastball and tops out around 97. He has better command than Nett but lesser velocity and misses fewer bats. He also features a curveball in the upper 70s and a mid-80s changeup. Baez was already on San Diego’s 40-man roster and will thus go right onto the Athletics’ 40-man roster as well.

The 26-year-old Nunez has already made his major league debut, tossing 4 2/3 innings out of the Padres’ bullpen this year. He’s a pure bullpen prospect who can step right into manager Mark Kotsay’s relief corps, if the A’s choose. He’s sat 97.9 mph with his four-seamer in his brief big league look, and Nunez has sat even higher (98.8 mph) in Triple-A. He couples that pitch with an upper-80s slider and a seldom-used curveball in the low to mid-80s.

San Diego signed Nunez as a minor league free agent over the winter, and he’s made huge gains with what had been previously poor command in the Cubs’ system. Nunez walked 22% of his opponents with Chicago’s Triple-A club a year ago. His 14% mark in Triple-A this season is still problematic but nowhere near as alarming. He also boasts a massive 38.6% chase rate in the minors and an outrageous 21.5% swinging-strike rate.

If Nunez can even come close to replicating those rates in the majors, he’d have the potential to be a high-end relief arm himself. That said, it’s worth bearing in mind that Nunez is already older than the elite reliever for whom he was just traded (Miller), and this is the first time he’s really shown any semblance of command in the upper minors. There’s upside here, but Nunez is still very much a work in progress.

There’s rarely a dull deadline when it comes to Preller, and this morning’s early and still fairly stunning swap of one of MLB’s most coveted prospects for one of its best big league relievers leaves plenty of time for further dealing. The Padres have been connected to left fielders like Cleveland’s Steven Kwan and Boston’s Jarren Duran while simultaneously exploring deals involving Cease, Suarez and other members of the current big league roster. More fireworks are surely on the way, but Preller and his Oakland West Sacramento counterpart, David Forst, have kicked things off with a bang.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the trade of Miller and Sears to the Padres and was also first with the full details on the Athletics’ return. This post was originally published at 10:25am.

Kotsay: Mason Miller “Unavailable Tonight,” Not Injured

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Athletics closer Mason Miller was “unavailable tonight,” according to manager Mark Kotsay, who also said the decision was not injury-related.  The A’s held a 5-3 lead over the Mariners entering the ninth inning at Sutter Health Park tonight and elected to stick with rookie Jack Perkins rather than go to the flamethrowing closer Miller, who hasn’t pitched since Saturday.  The heavy implication is that a trade may be in the works for Miller, who is known to be of interest to the Padres and Yankees among others.

The Mets and Phillies were linked to Miller earlier today.  The Phillies have since acquired Jhoan Duran from the Twins, while the Mets subsequently added Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley (plus Gregory Soto five days ago).  The list of potential suitors for Miller is likely extensive, though the young talent required to get him will be significant.

Miller, 27 in August, is under team control through 2029.  He’s also one of the game’s best relievers.  Miller’s 39.1 K% ranks second among all relievers, as does his average fastball velocity of 101.2.  Some might say Miller has slipped a bit from last year’s breakout All-Star performance, but his 3.76 ERA in a 38 1/3 inning sample will hardly deter interested GMs.  Miller’s walk rate has worsened, and he’s been barreled up a good amount this year, but he’s still an impact stopper who’s under control for four-plus years.

In Tim Dierkes’ mailbag last week, he attempted to find comps for a reliever of Miller’s caliber being traded.  Tim concluded, “Even going back a decade to identify those comps, there’s not a great match for Miller, trading one of the game’s best relievers at the deadline with four-plus years of control remaining. Unless the waters are muddied with, say, Luis Severino’s contract, I’d expect two very good 55/60 grade prospects, and perhaps an equivalent player with MLB experience, to be required.”

As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America outlined yesterday, typically about three top-100 prospects are traded at the deadline each year.  We’ve seen one thus far, with #50 Eduardo Tait heading to Minnesota to headline the Duran deal.  Mick Abel, the secondary piece in that trade, “very much is on the very cusp of the Top 100” according to Cooper.  Keep in mind that Duran is under team control for two-plus years, while Miller is under control for four-plus.  Miller’s arbitration salaries will only begin next year.

We haven’t seen a top-25 prospect traded since the Padres included a pair in the 2022 Juan Soto deal.  I’d have to think Miller would require at least one such player, such as Zyhir Hope, Josue De Paula, or Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers or George Lombard Jr. of the Yankees.  It’s been eight years since a team parted with a top ten prospect at the deadline; Padres President of Baseball Operations & General Manager A.J. Preller holds one such chip in #5-ranked Leo De Vries.  It’s also possible that contenders could win the bidding by including valuable players off the big league roster.  The Padres have one of those in play in rental starter Dylan Cease; it might require a third team and a lot of creativity (and more players) to spin him into Miller.  We’ll find out in less than 17 hours.

A potential Miller trade would take place in a time of uncertainty for the Athletics, who are playing in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento in the first of what is meant to be three seasons.  A’s owner John Fisher held a symbolic groundbreaking for his new Las Vegas stadium back in June, though it’s still unclear how that will be financed.

Padres Interested In Mason Miller, Continuing To Pursue Jarren Duran

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The Padres continue to lurk on some of the top potential trade candidates. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic wrote this afternoon that San Diego remains enamored with Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran. Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic write that the Friars are involved on Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan as well. Lin and Rosenthal also report that the Padres have interest in A’s flamethrower Mason Miller.

Miller remains a long shot trade candidate but would be one of the most impactful arms available if the A’s seriously consider dealing him. Rosenthal reported this afternoon that the Phillies, Mets and Yankees had all been in touch with the A’s. The Phils and Mets were evidently deterred by the asking price. Philadelphia went on to acquire Jhoan Duran, while the Mets added Ryan Helsley. The Yankees have not pivoted to a different late-game weapon. However, SNY’s Andy Martino suggested this evening that the A’s asking price was high enough that talks with the Yanks had yet to become especially serious.

The Padres have two prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update: infielder Leo De Vries at #5 and catcher Ethan Salas at #65. They’d previously been reluctant to part with either player. Salas’ stock has dipped in recent months, largely because of a back injury that has kept him on the minor league injured list since late April. Salas is still a very good prospect, but De Vries is the clear top talent in the system.

San Diego could have a tough time acquiring an impact player with multiple years of control unless they’re willing to put De Vries on the table. Rosenthal and Lin write that the Padres are at least willing to discuss De Vries and Salas in trade conversations. It stands to reason they’d prefer to build a package around the latter, but his injury might make that difficult right now.

MassLive’s Sean McAdam suggested last week that the Red Sox rebuffed a framework built around Salas and Dylan Cease in talks on Jarren Duran. McCaffrey suggested today that Boston would be more open to building a Duran package around Cease and De Vries. That might be a bridge too far for San Diego.

The Padres’ interest in Miller comes as the Friars are simultaneously considering trading away MLB pitching. They’ve been open to offers on Cease for a few days, listening on the impending free agent starter while separately acquiring controllable pitching. There’d be a similar logic in shopping closer Robert Suarez, who may opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed this morning that Suarez is indeed in play in talks with other clubs. (As impending free agents, neither Cease nor Suarez would be of any interest to the A’s.)

San Diego could try to arrange a Suarez deal while making a push for Miller to replace him in the ninth inning. Rosenthal and Lin also float the possibility of the Padres stretching Miller back out as a starting pitcher. That’d be a very difficult ask midseason but could be more viable next spring. Miller moved to the bullpen because of a concerning injury history that included shoulder and elbow issues. Throwing as hard as he does puts plenty of stress on a pitcher’s arm. Still, the upside of returning Miller to a rotation role would be tantalizing. The Padres have had success with Seth Lugo, Michael King and (to a much lesser extent) Stephen Kolek as reliever to rotation conversions. Cease and King are impending free agents, and there’s not much in the way of controllable starting pitching to go around.

None of this is to say that San Diego making a blockbuster acquisition is likely. The A’s control Miller for four and a half seasons. They’re not going to trade him for anything less than a monster haul. It’d take a bigger return than what the Phillies sent to Minnesota for two and a half years of control over Jhoan Duran: top 100 catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel. That’s probably also true for Jarren Duran and Kwan, All-Star caliber outfielders who are controllable for multiple seasons. A lot could hinge on De Vries, but if the Padres are genuinely willing to consider dealing one of the 10 or so best prospects in the sport, that’d open plenty of opportunities for a huge swing.

Yankees, Mets, Phillies Have Discussed Mason Miller With A’s

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The Yankees, Mets, and Phillies have all engaged in talks with the Athletics regarding closer Mason Miller, reports The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. This update comes 10 days after USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported in no uncertain terms that Miller was off the market. While Rosenthal does not suggest a trade is likely, it seems the A’s are at least entertaining offers.

Any conversations between the A’s and Phillies may have been brief. Rosenthal notes the A’s asked for Philadelphia’s top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter, in return for Miller. But as Rosenthal and colleague Matt Gelb reported earlier today, the Phillies “refuse to even entertain the thought of moving Painter.” Rosenthal and Gelb suggested that the Phillies’ refusal to part with Painter likely eliminates them from the market for Miller or Twins closer Jhoan Duran.

Rosenthal also throws a bit of cold water on the Yankees connection. The A’s, he explains, are seeking top-tier young arms (hence their interest in Painter). Meanwhile, he mentions that the Yankees are “more focused on adding pitching than subtracting it.” In other words, the A’s are presumably seeking close-to-MLB-ready pitchers (as their interest in Painter implies), and the Yankees, who have learned a lot about the value of pitching depth this season, might not be willing to part with the sort of players who meet the Athletics’ criteria.

As for the Mets, they might not be quite as interested in Miller after they dealt for Tyler Rogers this afternoon. Rogers might not have Miller’s closing experience, high ceiling, or years of team control, but he’s arguably having a better season than Miller, and he and Edwin Díaz give the Mets a strong one-two pairing of right-handers at the back end of their bullpen. The Mets also traded for left-hander Gregory Soto last week, so they might now prefer to focus their efforts on improvements in other areas.

All this to say, the chances of Miller being moved this summer still seem slim, but it might not be out of the question. Perhaps if fellow closers Duran or Ryan Helsley fetch a high enough price for the Twins and Cardinals, respectively, the Athletics will be convinced to take advantage of a relatively weak trade market and the high number of contenders seeking bullpen help.

Featured image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images.

A’s Rebuffing Trade Interest In Mason Miller

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The Athletics are lined up to be sellers at the deadline, but their July 31 moves won’t extend to a certain long-term closer.  Mason Miller appears to be more or less untouchable, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the A’s are telling interested teams that the reliever isn’t available in trade talks.

While things could conceivably change if a particular club makes an outsized offer, it makes sense that the A’s have no interest in moving Miller, who is under team control through the 2029 season.  The right-hander has yet to even reach salary arbitration, though he’ll hit that milestone a year early since Miller is on pace to easily qualify for Super Two status.  This means he’ll gain four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the usual three.

Since traditional counting statistics are weighed more heavily in arbitration cases than more advanced analytics, a closer who racks up big save totals can put himself in line for some increasingly hefty paydays through the arb process.  As such, Miller stands to cash in given that that he already posted 47 saves (out of 53 chances) over his three MLB seasons.  While this rising price tag might make the Athletics more open to dealing Miller at some point during his arbitration years, there isn’t any urgency for the A’s to make a move just yet, even if he has been whispered in trade speculation for over a year.

[Related: Athletics Trade Deadline Outlook, for MLBTR Front Office subscribers]

After making his big league debut in 2023, Miller was installed as the Athletics’ closer at the start of the 2024 campaign and he essentially hasn’t looked back.  The righty has a 3.22 ERA and a stunning 37.5% strikeout rate over 134 career innings, with an average fastball velocity of 100.2mph.  That high-octane fastball is paired with an 87.2mph slider that has been one of the more effective pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons.  Control is a question mark, as Miller’s below-average walk rate in 2024 has sunk to a troubling 12% in 2025.

Between this control issue and the general volatility of relief pitching, an argument can be made that the A’s would be well served to sell high on Miller while he is at peak trade value.  Miller dealt with some early-career injuries that necessitated his move from starting pitching to the bullpen in the first place, so this health history is another reason the front office could reasonably consider a trade at some point.

On the flip side, the Athletics have shown indications that they’re ready to end their rebuild, even if their results in 2025 have been disappointing.  The club locked up Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker to long-term extensions this past spring, and signed Luis Severino to a team-record $67MM free agent deal this past offseason.  This counts as a massive spending splurge by the Athletics’ traditionally low-spending standards, though it appears as though their extension discussions didn’t extend to Miller, who said in mid-March that the club had yet to broach the subject of a long-term extension.  Some sort of multi-year agreement might be a wise move for the A’s to gain some cost certainty through Miller’s arbitration years, even if the club might be hesitate about a commitment beyond the 2029 campaign.

No Extension Talks Thus Far Between A’s, Mason Miller

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The A’s have handed out two of the largest extensions in franchise history in recent months. They inked DH Brent Rooker to a five-year, $60MM guarantee in January. Earlier this week, they finalized a seven-year deal with outfielder Lawrence Butler that guarantees $65.5MM.

It’s possible that the Butler deal is the first of multiple A’s extensions in Spring Training. General manager David Forst told Evan Drellich of The Athletic a couple weeks ago that the team had opened talks with a few players. With Butler signed, closer Mason Miller should arguably be the team’s top extension candidate.

Miller told Foul Territory’s A.J. Pierzynski on Friday afternoon that he’s open to talks but hasn’t heard from the team about the possibility. The A’s control the hard-throwing reliever for another five seasons. Miller will qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. He’d go through that process four times unless he signs an extension.

The A’s may not be eager to commit to a reliever, even one as dominant as Miller, whom they already have under control for a half-decade. There’s downside associated with the general volatility of relief pitching. Miller’s stuff is so exceptional that he’s a safer bet than almost any reliever to remain effective, but there’s more of a risk from a health perspective. He battled shoulder and elbow injuries and pitched fewer than 40 innings in the minor leagues.

[Related Front Office Post: Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?]

Forearm tightness wiped out most of his ’23 season and was the main reason the A’s moved him out of the rotation during the 2023-24 offseason. Miller stayed healthy last year aside from an incident where he fractured the pinkie on his left (non-throwing) hand, which reportedly occurred when he hit a training table in frustration after a poor outing. That’s presumably not a concern moving forward, but as baseball’s hardest thrower, he certainly puts a lot of stress on his elbow and shoulder.

There have been a handful of extensions for relief pitchers in the 1-2 year service bucket. Miller would almost certainly look to set a new standard for that class if the A’s were interested in an extension. Emmanuel Clase’s five-year, $20MM guarantee is the current record. That deal, which was signed in April 2022, included a pair of $10MM club options to extend Cleveland’s control window by two seasons. Clase was coming off an outstanding first full season, turning in a 1.29 ERA with 24 saves and 74 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings. Miller struck out 104 hitters with a 2.49 earned run average over 65 frames last season. He went 28-31 in save chances.

Clase’s deal is a three-year old precedent that has turned into an extremely team-friendly contract. Clase also wasn’t on track to reach Super Two status, which meant he was two years from arbitration and had a much lower earning power through that process. Arbitration salaries escalate annually, and Super Two qualification sets a higher baseline for future raises. Clase didn’t have Miller’s injury history, but the Cleveland closer had served a performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2020 that added a different risk to his profile.

A’s Looking To Add Third Baseman, “Wouldn’t Rule Out” Another SP Addition

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7:26pm: The A’s inquired after Bohm with the Phillies, according to a report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, but Philadelphia’s request for star closer Mason Miller in return for Bohm’s services reportedly ended those discussions.

5:49pm: As the Athletics gear up to play the 2025 campaign in their temporary home of West Sacramento while waiting on a more permanent move to Las Vegas, they’ve made an effort to put a more competitive product on the field after showing signs of progress with a 32-32 record after the All-Star break during their final season in Oakland. Those efforts to bolster the roster started when they inked right-hander Luis Severino to a three-year deal and continued today when they landed left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a five-player trade with the Rays earlier today.

The addition of Severino and Springs to the top of the A’s rotation adds some credibility to the club entering 2025 after the club’s starters struggled to a 4.76 ERA that was a bottom five figure in the majors last year. Severino and Springs will front a rotation that currently also figures to feature JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes on Opening Day, but club GM David Forst indicated to reporters (including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com) that he “wouldn’t rule out” adding another starter to the mix. In addition to continuing to weigh a potential third rotation addition, Forst suggested (as relayed by Gallegos) that he intends to explore both the trade and free agent markets for a potential third base addition.

The A’s significant additions and newfound willingness to commit to a higher payroll come with off-the-field concerns attached in addition to desire to improve the roster on the field. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the A’s would run the risk of a grievance from the MLB Players Association if they don’t spend 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll. With the A’s reportedly expected to rake in $70MM or more in revenue sharing, that means they’ll need a payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in order to avoid risking a grievance from the players’ union. After today’s trade to land Springs, RosterResource projects the club for an $88.5MM luxury tax payroll in 2025. That still leaves around $15MM in budget room for luxury tax purposes before they reach that $105MM benchmark, which ought to leave the door open for the club to another addition or two.

In the rotation, even a back-of-the-rotation veteran such as Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson (who the A’s were previously connected to prior to the Springs deal). would likely eat up most if not all of that $15MM. It’s at least theoretically possible the club could look to spend beyond that, however. Previous indications have suggested that the club was targeting a payroll in the $100MM range for 2025. Given that RosterResource’s projection for the club actual payroll in 2025 in terms of cash paid out is just over $64MM, that would leave substantially more room to spend than if the A’s are targeting a payroll in the $100MM range for luxury tax purposes. That could make both the addition of a back-end starter and a notable salary at third base feasible.

Turning to the hot corner, the position has been the focus of a number of different clubs in the rumor mill this winter. The Cubs dealt third baseman Isaac Paredes to the Astros just yesterday, and Houston’s longtime third baseman Alex Bregman remains one of the most coveted players on the free agent market. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have made clear their intentions of dealing Nolan Arenado this winter. The Angels, Tigers, Yankees, and Astros are among the other teams known to be in the market for third base help, while the Red Sox and Padres remain on the periphery of the market as teams with established third basemen who have been connected to potential third base options like Bregman and Arenado as solutions at other positions.

It’s nearly impossible to imagine a top-tier free agent like Bregman or a veteran with no-trade protection such as Arenado choosing to play out a long-term deal in West Sacramento, but that doesn’t mean the A’s are completely out of luck if they hope to add a third baseman to their roster this winter. Alec Bohm of the Phillies is one frequently-discussed trade candidate at the hot corner, and Diamondbacks veteran Eugenio Suarez has seen his name percolate in the rumor mill as another possible trade chip. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco, Paul DeJong, and Yoan Moncada are among the potential third base options available in the lower tiers of the free agent market, and it’s possible that a club with an infield surplus such as the Blue Jays or Orioles could make someone like Davis Schneider or Ramon Urias available in trade.

A’s Not Discussing Rotation Move For Mason Miller

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Last offseason, the Athletics moved Mason Miller from the rotation to the closing job. General manager David Forst said at the time that the A’s were open to building the right-hander back up as a starter after one season in relief. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for now.

“We’re not talking about moving him back into a starting role,” Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle this week. While that doesn’t preclude having the conversation at some point during the offseason, it appears the likelier outcome is that Miller will remain in the ninth inning.

Stretching Miller back out would be a huge risk-reward play for the A’s. A few teams have had success with converted relievers in recent seasons. Garrett Crochet immediately looked like a budding ace when the White Sox gave him a starting job. Seth Lugo and Michael King have gone from setup relievers to borderline top-of-the-rotation starters. Reynaldo López and José Soriano found success but battled injury issues in their returns to starting. Free agent righty Jeff Hoffman has drawn interest as a potential rotation conversion.

Miller is talented enough that a Crochet arc would be within the realistic range of outcomes. The A’s are concerned that a starter’s workload would weigh heavily on his arm, though. Miller has battled shoulder and elbow injuries and pitched fewer than 40 innings in the minor leagues. He started six MLB games as a rookie in 2023. Miller was pitching well but forearm tightness shelved him between mid-May and the start of September. The A’s used him out of the bullpen for the season’s final month and kept him in that capacity this year.

The 26-year-old’s first full season as a closer could hardly have gone better. Miller’s already elite velocity jumped in short stints. His fastball averaged nearly 101 MPH and routinely got into the 103-104 range. Between that kind of life and a wipeout slider, Miller was almost untouchable. He turned in a 2.49 ERA while striking out almost 42% of opposing hitters through 65 innings. Opponents swung and missed at nearly a fifth of his offerings. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only Josh Hader and Braves’ breakout lefty Dylan Lee got swinging strikes more frequently. Miller locked down 28 of 31 save attempts.

Most importantly, Miller’s arm held up. His only injury this year was a three-week absence due to a small fracture in his non-throwing hand. (He reportedly sustained that injury when he struck a training table in frustration after a poor outing.) It took all of a few weeks for Miller to establish himself as an elite late-game weapon.

Relievers aren’t immune to injury, but the A’s clearly feel better about his chances to stay healthy working in 1-2 inning stints. Assuming they don’t reverse course later in the offseason, he’ll project as one of the best closers in baseball. Other teams called on Miller at the deadline and surely will do so again this winter, but a trade would be a surprise. He’s still a year from arbitration and under club control for five seasons. The A’s are no longer aggressively tearing down the roster. They were relatively quiet at the deadline. Forst has already declared they’re keeping Brent Rooker, their best trade chip aside from Miller.

The A’s will need to add multiple starting pitchers. Their rotation is among the thinnest in the league. Players like JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes headline the group. They all look like back-of-the-rotation arms at best. With almost nothing on the books for next season, Forst and his staff should be able to take on money via trade and/or a mid-level free agent strike to add innings.

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