Cody Bellinger will decline his $25MM player option and become a free agent, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. That was never much in doubt, as the outfielder will hit the open market after one strong season with the Yankees. He’ll collect a $5MM buyout, half of which will be paid by the Cubs.
The Yanks had been tied to Bellinger in free agency and trade rumors for years. That finally came to fruition last offseason with what amounted to a salary dump trade with Chicago. Bellinger was coming off a relative down ’24 season (.266/.325/.426) and passed on his first opt-out chance in his three-year deal. The Cubs pulled off the Kyle Tucker trade to add a needed impact bat in the middle of the order. That left them without an outfield spot for Bellinger, so they sent him to the Yankees for essentially no return.
New York absorbed $47.5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. The Cubs paid $2.5MM of his $27.5MM salary this season and are responsible for the other $2.5MM on the buyout. The Yankees wound up paying $27.5MM for one year — $25MM in salary and the remaining half of the buyout.
That proved a worthwhile investment even if the team had a disappointing exit in this week’s Division Series. Bellinger played about as well as could be expected. He hit .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. Bellinger hit 29 homers, his best single-season total since he connected on 47 longballs during his 2019 MVP season. He swiped 13 bases while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.7% clip.
Bellinger’s left-handed swing seemed tailor made for Yankee Stadium. He hit 18 homers with a .302/.365/.544 batting line at home. His road numbers were essentially league average, as he slashed .241/.301/.414 outside the Bronx. That could give some teams pause about how the bat will play if he signs elsewhere. Bellinger didn’t find the robust market he wanted when he was a free agent during the 2023-24 offseason, nor was there significant trade interest when the Cubs shopped him last winter. If there were, the Yankees would’ve needed to give up more than journeyman righty Cody Poteet to acquire him.
That’s largely because of Bellinger’s pedestrian batted ball metrics. He has been in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity in each of the past three seasons. He doesn’t have a ton of bat speed and certainly doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he did early in his career — before he suffered a shoulder injury that tanked his numbers between 2021-22. Bellinger has compensated for the drop in bat speed by cutting his strikeouts every season, and he carries a .281/.338/.477 line in nearly 1800 plate appearances over the past three years.
Bellinger returns to the market a few months after his 30th birthday. He’s young enough to seek a five- or six-year deal. Bellinger is a better defender and arguably superior all-around hitter than Anthony Santander, who signed for five years with a net present value around $69MM last winter. There’s little reason Bellinger shouldn’t beat that contract fairly handily. It wouldn’t at all be surprising if his camp starts out with an asking price in the $100-150MM range.
The Cubs issued Bellinger a qualifying offer after the 2023 season. That makes him ineligible to receive a QO for the rest of his career. The Yankees would not receive any kind of compensation if he signs elsewhere, nor would another team forfeit a pick. New York can and probably will make a qualifying offer, which would land around $22MM, to Trent Grisham. They’re also set to have Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and a handful of role players hit the open market. Williams entered the season as a qualifying offer candidate, but the Yankees are probably content to let him move on after an uneven season in pinstripes.
Stunning
Stunningly expected. : -)
Not like it hasn’t happened before.
He’ll re-sign with the Yankees. Perfect stadium and they need each other too much not to get a new deal done.
4/$100. Nothing more.
lol. He gonna b the next aging Yankee vet on a bloated contract. He’s getting more in years and annual salary. And he’s gonna be a yankee 🔒
Yanks have options. Cashman has shown lately that he’s not afraid to walk away from expensive vets like Bregman, Alonso, Santander, etc. Tucker is a younger, albeit more expensive option, but at least it would make sense to give the longer deal to him rather than Beli. Tucker isn’t repped by Boras like Beli is so of the Yanks are aggressive and Tucker is cool with being a Yank then that deal might get done quicker than trying to deal with Boras who will try and wait out the market to get the best deal for Beli who is looking for what will likely be his last big payday. Go hard like they did for Fried ND slightly overpay for the guy you want at the top of the market. If the market is silly, then I could imagine Cashman bringing back Grisham and creating a false competition between Dominguez and Spencer Jones for LF. If Dominguez shows he deserves a space in LF/CF but Grisham regresses, then Jones could force himself on to the team midseason.
This is shaping up to be a solid FA class for hitters. Alonso, naylor, bellinger, tucker, bichette, bregman (assuming opt out), eugenio, schwarber
I’ll believe Pete Alonso leaves the Mets when I see it.
That was obvious. Take care Bellinger, go play with Soto. Yankees needs to see what Dominez and Jones can do. They are cheap. Unless they unload Stanton. Judge can DH and the outfield of Bellinger, Dominez and Jones could be interesting. Bye bye to Grisham also. He’s not worth the amount of the Qualifying offer.
A $300 million dollar payroll is now cheap?
$22M for Grisham is total insanity. It’s a stretch to think he’s worth even half of that.
Jones in left, re-signing Bellinger for center and Judge in right.
dewey:,Jones strikes out too much and is nowhere near MLB-ready.
Yankees will bring em both back. Def not on a QO for Grisham but they’ll both want to return as well
Big whiffa: How can you know that without seeing what is offered by other teams?
Yanks need to say goodbye to him
Are you sure? He hit.302.365.544 at Yankee Stadium,much less elsewhere.
200 point ops difference between home and away (still .715 away). Pull power only pretty much. Yankees need to keep him. He crushes there.
Would the Yankees consider trading Wells and start Rice? Play Bellinger at 1B? They have a great roster but needs some tweaking
I could see trading wells. Rice has elite underlying stats and it’s not like wells defensively is much better. But, they wouldn’t sign Bellinger to play 1b. He’d be an outfielder primarily, especially since Grisham is probably gone.
That’s a solid plan because clearly Goldschmidt is gone. If Yanks do what they have to in keeping Bellinger, I’d want him at 1B going forward just to decrease the chance of injury.
Bellinger at 29 has three quality years left. His best years could be ahead of him.
Buster Posey what say you?
He would suck in San Francisco. His season was a product of Yankee stadium. Doubt he’d hit 20 homeruns playing half his games there
Good point. I hope Posey recognizes this
18 of his 29 HRs at home. All are pull with maybe five to right center. He’d be 18 hr 2024 Bellinger in San Fran.
It will be interesting to see if he beats 25 million annually. Outside of the Yanks and maybe the Metropolitans, who is laying that out?
He may not expect to beat the annual rate, but instead look to gain more length.
Giants need an OF and he’d be cheaper than Tucker. Only problem is, Oracle is death on lefties.
He will have plenty of suitors. Doubt any will pay what Yankees will and he will make more that 25 per for sure
I think teams like the Orioles and Tigers will kick the tires and the Mets and Phillies could get in if they lose Alonso/Schwarber respectively. Beyond that, the Yankees may make an effort to keep him, the Angels have never met an aging slugger they didn’t like, and maybe the Giants or Mariners get in the mix
So nice that this is happening now, and not after the World Series, because the Yankees are heading for the couch till February.
Yanks need to keep him. A perfect fit for the Yankees! Had a great year and is a great defender!
Does he even want to stay in the Bronx? That’s the question
No thanks. Benge will be a better player than Bellinger in less than twelve months.
5 at $30 million with a club up option and buyout. Fair for both sides. If he wants more guaranteed years best of luck. He and the stadium are made for each other.
Mets need to sign Bellinger to play CF and they need to find a way to trade off Nimmo’s god awful contract