Ahead of his final year under team control, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has gotten plenty of attention as fans and clubs alike have begun to turn their attention towards the offseason. Detroit’s reported extension offer of less than $100MM over four years last offseason does not inspire confidence that the club will be able to lock him up long-term, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer about Skubal’s future during his end-of-season press conference this past week. It’s impossible to say at this point whether Detroit would consider trading their ace this winter, but Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that the Mets are expected to be involved in that market if Skubal were to be made available.
That’s not exactly a surprise. The Mets had perhaps the most disappointing season in baseball this year given that they missed the postseason during Juan Soto’s first season in Queens after signing a $765MM deal last winter. Much of that disappointment can be chalked up to a lackluster rotation that crumbled down the stretch and posted a 5.09 ERA after July 1 that was good for just 25th in the majors. Injuries and underperformance from virtually every established arm in the rotation mix besides Clay Holmes and David Peterson left New York on the outside looking in this postseason, and while youngsters like Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong offer some optimism for the future, it would be understandable for the Mets to seek more certainty this winter than they can offer.
When it comes to starting pitching, there might be no pitcher this side of Paul Skenes who offers more certainty than Skubal. He’s pitched to a 2.30 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate across 387 2/3 innings of work over the past two seasons. That work has already won him one Cy Young award and is likely to win him a second next month. He’s also managed to take things up a notch when the lights are brightest and dominate in the postseason, with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 37.8% strikeout rate across six playoff starts. Of the 33 starting pitchers with at least 20 postseason innings over the past five years, Skubal boasts the highest strikeout rate, best SIERA, and the fifth-lowest ERA.
Skubal’s resume speaks for itself, and in a free agent market that looks relatively soft on starting pitching options he figures to be all the more attractive. With that being said, there are some reasons to think the Mets might not go all-in for Skubal even if the Tigers do make him available. The lefty is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency rather than sign extensions. That would seem to make it unlikely that the Mets (or any other acquiring club) would be able to keep Skubal long-term after trading for him unless they outbid the field next winter.
New York certainly has the financial wherewithal to do that, but (as the Soto signing last winter showed) they could also look to do so without surrendering what figures to be a massive prospect package to acquire his final year of team control. Sammon suggests that the Mets would be open to considering a deal involving any player besides McLean, who posted a 2.06 ERA in eight starts this year and is viewed as a potential ace in his own right. Sammon speculates that the Tigers could ask for a package along the lines of Tong and Sproat plus top infield prospect Jett Williams in exchange for Skubal’s services.
It should be highlighted that Sammon’s suggested package is purely speculative, but it’s still worth noting that it would be quite out of character for president of baseball operations David Stearns to surrender so much young talent for a one-year rental. That willingness to prioritize the farm system is something that he seemingly has backing from ownership on, given previous comments by Steve Cohen about the club’s current level of spending being unsustainable in the long-term and a desire to support massive deals for players like Soto and Francisco Lindor with young, homegrown talent.
The other side of that conversation is the reality that if the Mets are going to improve their rotation headed into next year, they’ll need to spend either prospect capital or more dollars. Even so, those other avenues to improving could be preferable to giving up a massive package to land Skubal. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to be available in trade this winter, and Sammon floats him as an example of a pitcher who likely could be had for a lower prospect cost than Skubal. The Mets have been unafraid of rolling the dice on pitchers with question marks in the past during free agency, and the upside a player like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, or Ranger Suarez could offer is immense.
Those alternative options may end up being necessary to pursue even if the Mets decide to pursue Skubal. There’s no guarantees the Tigers will make him available at all, and even if they do New York would hardly be the only suitor for his services. Last offseason’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet should serve as a reminder that the Mets aren’t as able to easily outbid the competition on the trade market as they are in free agency; the Red Sox and Craig Breslow were able to offer a massive package for Crochet that few teams in the sport would have been able to match, and even the improved farm system Stearns finds himself with this winter isn’t impossible to outbid with McLean likely off the table.
so you’re telling me the manea and montas signings did not work out for mets?
I know you’re just trying to spread negativity and it doesn’t really matter to you but they’re both here for another year so while it doesn’t look good rn it’s not technically over so still TBD.
ALSO Canning and Holmes weren’t disasters but you still cried about those SP signings.
Just ignore him man……probably a frustrated Rockies fan…
Rocky, where have you been? I didn’t agree with your posts years ago but we started to see more eye to eye. As for the Mets, I see Peralta given the connection and lesser cost. Also, the Tigers can ask all they want and try to get teams in a bidding war but despite the talent, I’d pass on one year if the price gets as high as the suggested asking.
Spend spend spend and can’t make the playoffs. Mets are a joke.
They went the “cheap” route with starting pitchers this year by signing a bunch of 4-5 guys. I think they overpaid for most of them in the end.
metzfan A Joke that competes every year and has the highest payroll in the history of American Sports
Must be nice to hang all those “We competed!” banners with the highest payroll in baseball.
Dodgers say, hold my beer on the highest payroll
Still missing the playoffs with the 2nd highest payroll is horrible it shows that stearns did not use all that money correctly
Mets need a GM that is used to money like Dave Dombrowski
Skubal is going to be on one of five teams: Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies. If not in 2026, then definitely 2027. I don’t even bother caring about the best players because I know where they are going.
You can add the Giants to make the list six but I totally agree with you here.
Probably right…he’s a CA guy….and he would absolutely RULE in SF….
The Sox don’t yet belong on a big boy list. Despite writing what I wrote above, I can see the Sox in on Peralta but I just don’t see ownership outbidding others in free agency. All they do is raise the cost for the true big boys. I’d love for ownership to prove me wrong but I don’t see it. At the end, they run their computers and AI tells them the supposed best financial moves.
Yeah and I guess the Cubs and Angels deserve mentioning too, but they (along with the Giants and Phillies and Padres) occasionally have to take years off from spending. I guess you could include Boston in that group, but to a much lesser extent. They spend just as much as the big three most of the time, but aren’t as good at it or as lucky with injuries.
The main ones at the top at the top have so much revenue due to their market size, they almost never have to rebuild. The Mets fans consider this year an “awful” season despite finishing the year over .500 and having a chance at the playoffs on the last day of the season. Yankees fans cannot stand Aaron Boone even though he has won over 90 games in 6 out of 7 “real” seasons since he was hired. I won’t mention Dodgers fans at all just because they have to deal with the brain damage that caused them to become Dodger fans in the first place.
Yankees won’t be in the trade market for Skubal. They already have some pitching depth even with Cole probably not being ready until May. Other teams can also offer better trade packages than the Yankees can add their farm system isn’t deep.
Yeah, that would definitely not make any sense unless it’s just to muddy the waters.
Yes, but in free agency, they will be in on him. Cole is coming back from an injury and will be one year closer to completing his deal.
Tong and Sproat and Jett Williams for Skubal is ridiculous. That’s three of the Mets top five prospects. When the BoSox traded for Crochet — who had two years of team control left — they gave up some nice prospects, but not one of their top three. This situation is a little different: ChiSox fans didn’t need to be convinced that their team wouldn’t compete during the rest of Crochet’s tenure, but if this is the kind of package they’re going to expect for a one year SKubal rental then you can pencil Skubal in as the Tigers’ opening day 2026 starter.
Don’t be too quick to go off groupthink prospect rankings. WSox wanted Teel as headliner once Anthony wasn’t happening. Mayer seen as injury prone and Campbell a less complete player. Tigers will have its own variance relative to ranking services.
@Bronx. I thought similarly. That is a price tag that’s to steep. I get the impression you think they are being unreasonable. If that’s the case you’re wrong. This would be the Tigers way of saying we are happy to keep him so you will really have to convince us.
They made the playoffs and they have a really young team. They might see 2026 as a potentially strong showing.
They can keep him. The Mets have a ton of pitching in the pipeline. None are really untouchable other than McLean.
I mean, you can say that but you or any other fan would be ecstatic to have Skubal. You are talking about the AL’s best starter. Im sure the Tigers will be happy to keep him.
Mets top three aren’t as good as Sox top three.
Bronxlou: What fans might think is irrelevant. They don’t make player personnel decisions.
Crochet had an extra yr but was coming off his first sustained success, where is Skubal will be coming off back to back cy young seasons.
I see the SF Giants in the mix, if not the favorite. They’ve been trying to do big deals to compete with the Dodgers, it’s a great park for pitchers and Skubal is from the Bay area.
Skubal’s family lives in Kingman now. That might dampen the appeal of going where he’s from.
Boston fans had better hope it isn’t them. Breslow will deal K. Campbell, Duran, Anthony and Early for Skubal who then, 6 starts into the season, will require TJS.
Breslow isn’t trading almost a decade of control with Anthony for one season of Skubal regardless how good he is. Paul Skenes is probably the only pitcher I could see an Anthony led package being traded for. I don’t think Detroit is trading Skubal for anything short of a kings ransom that Boston package would be far more than the Mets package that the author floated no way that happens.
Eat me, Yankee
Take the Red Sox and Phillies out of that list even they have a limit
Here’s a wild suggestion: Los Angeles Angels, they haven’t given out a big deal since Rendon and hes coming off the books soon
Boras thrilled to do business again with desperate NYM owner similar to how Soto bid played out.
I fail to see how much influence Boras has with Skubal not yet a free agent. All parties expect Skubal to be one after next season. Feel free to take shots at the Mets but at least make sense.
Skubal is a FA after next season. If someone trades a ton for him, the extension price Boras sets to said team for extension rather tha FA with that leverage will be obscene. Same deal when Yanks traded for Soto. Think a step ahead champ.
Appreciate the strawman!
Reportedly there were higher bidders than the Mets.
Don’t know where you got that info from, but from what the NY press reported, the Mets offer was the highest…Soto wasn’t going to sign for anything less than the absolute best money offer…..rubs Lincoln off the penny they say….
@rocky. I found one source that said Soto was offered more money that was sited by several articles. It was from Soto’s camp. Not very convincing.
Skubal for Jonah Tong, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Carson Benge and Jett Williams.
Not enough. Add McLean. Gotta give to get.
If they require McLean, Tong, Benge, and Williams, then there’s a zero percent chance a deal happens. Those are the Mets top four prospects, four top 50 per MLB Pipeline. As a Mets fan, I’d rather keep the prospects, even considering how good Skubal is.
Fair enough.
You would, but the owner you guys just love is a much richer version of Artie Moreno. And he’s willing to empty the farm for high-priced big names.
Just wait another year and throw the money at him
What if he accepts someone else’s money?
Can you point to the example of that?
Cohen is a lot of things but “richer version of Arte Moreno”? Literally the only connection I can see there is that they spend a lot of money and didn’t make the playoffs
Is he though? Who has the Cohen regime emptied from the Mets farm? The Wilpons depleted the Mets farm every chance they had because they were financially strapped. That’s why Steve Cohen has had to spend so much to be competitive. There was no one in the farm MLB ready to replace expensive free agents.
For example, had the Wilpons not sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to Chicago for a half year rental of Javy Baez, the Mets wouldn’t have had to fork over 200 mil for Nimmo to remain a Met.
Yep. Mets can just sign him in the offseason.
No he’s not. You’ve never heard a word that Steve Cohen has said if you think that. Cohen has constantly stated that having a strong, robust minor league system is key to winning at the major league level. They are not going to empty the farm for Skubal, or anyone else. They will get a fair deal, or not make one.
Provided, of course, that there is a 2027 season.
Steve Cohen is in hock to Scott Boras as much as the Wilpons were in hock to Bernie Madoff.
If that was the case, I don’t think he would’ve brought in someone like David Stearns as POBO/GM.
stanthefan – I agree with everything you said but Cohen was there for the PCA trade
McLean is the guy that is almost surely the key ask in a package. Tong has real upside but is hardly a sure thing and Sproat is rather iffy when it comes to being an impact starter over the long haul
I doubt that Stearns wants to give up what would be required in trade, and why would the Tigers take a lesser package when they should be in the mix again this season?
McLean has future ace written all over him. Good luck prying him away from the Mets.
McLean isn’t going anywhere for anybody. If he’s the key to any deal, the deal isn’t getting done. And that’s a fact.
Fine, the Mets can keep their “potential ace” in lieu of acquiring a proven one.
Do you know what a fact is?
McLean has proven to be a very good, top of the rotation type of pitcher. Albeit a small sample size. The thing that hurts the Tigers with Skubal is his injury history. That will play a part in what the market dictates. With that said, what’s the point in trading for Skubal if you have to send McLean? Skubal is going to test the market. If they are similar pitchers, why not keep the guy who is younger, will cost less in dollars, and prospects, and is a known quantity in the market he plays in?
What’s the point in the Tigers trading Skubal if they don’t receive pitching value in return? Their time to contend is now.
I do, and I’m telling you that what we are hearing here in NY is that just about every prospect we have is available EXCEPT MCLEAN. They are not willing to trade him, and that comes straight from the Mets own network, SNY. So, yes, that’s a fact.
If it’s their time to contend, why would they entertain offers for Skubal at all?
sny.tv/articles/mets-motivated-target-tarik-skubal…
“Fine, the Mets can keep their “potential ace” in lieu of acquiring a proven one.”
It’s more than that, though. First, w/r/t McLean, you’re giving up ~7 years of control of McLean for two years of Skubal. Then you’re asking for multiple other high-end prospects who also have ~7 years of control. *Then* the Mets would also have to pony up $350+ million to keep Skubal long term. It just doesn’t make any sense from the Mets perspective if you’re trying to build a sustainable contender.
Mets already have a handful of big contracts on the books and might have another one with Alonso this offseason. They need to supplement those big deals with cheap, cost-controlled talent. McLean, Tong, Sproat, Benge, Williams, Baty, Alvarez, etc are essential young pieces to balance out the salaries.
Also, the Mets weren’t/aren’t one ace away from being a WS contender. They need multiple starters to step up, and McLean/Tong/Sproat/Christian Scott might provide that.
El
Adding him to the prospect cost would have to include some kind of sign-and-trade as part of the deal. Otherwise, wait until Skubal hits FA and take your best shot.
McLean only gets included if New York also obtains cost certainty. Mets have to retain some top prospect talent to maintain a bit of control over payroll costs.
The Tigers would be trading a megastar pitcher. A sure thing. What should matter to them is what the Tigers want/need, not what the Mets want. No sign-and-trade.
Okay then.
Good luck getting what YOU want.
Your ask values Skubal as “The Final Piece” imo. I happen to think the Mets are not quite that good
Quick, give me a kabong hit. 🤣
In your fantasy maybe.
Mets would not deal both Benge and Williams.
Tigers say, “Fine. Dodgers on Line 2; Red Sox on Line 3.
Mets say “Better get it before they hang up.”
The Mets are in no position to tell the Tigers what to do. Both the Red Sox and Dodgers can top what Mets fans here are willing to surrender for a Cy Young winner in his prime. And real offer would start with McLean.
If the price it too high they are in a position to say “no thanks”..
Again, Skubal is a proven commodity. If the Mets wantr to negotiate in good faith, the conversation should start with McLean. Remember, it would be the Mets doing the inquiring.
Remember, they aren’t willing to trade McLean as per SNY, the Mets own network, You’re not getting McLean. No one is.
Fine. Then the Tigers can reject the offer after the Mets show interest by calling them. All of this is hypothetical anyway. There’s probably a greater chance the Tigers keep Skubal.
Good chatting with you. I’m not ducking out on this conversation. My wife asked me to something that will take a while to get done.
My condolences. Honey Do Lists trump all preferable Sunday activities.
“There’s probably a greater chance the Tigers keep Skubal.”
I agree with you, El Kabong. If the 4/$100 million rumor is true, then the Tigers were willing to shell out $25 million/year. A Gerritt Cole, 9/$324 million deal is $36 million per year. Skubal repeating his successful 2024 in 2025 in my eyes would justify the Tigers adding $11 million per year and a handful more years. Even if Skubal wants 10/$400 million, I think the Tigers could do that.
Skubal helping the Tigers be perennial contenders and a playoff team means more revenue for the team. I would put money on them reaching an agreement vs. trading him.
The Tigers can kiss any hope of an extension goodbye after lowballing him last off-season. Might as well trade him and get a boatload of prospects for him.
I think the worst thing about this is the fact the #’s were made public. Sure 100 mil is nothing to sneeze at & it certainly offers lifelong financial security, but it is going to lead to what we’re seeing… “Clearly Skubal is available given Detroit only offered $100 mil”.
stanthefan: With the internet, everything is made public.
The Tigers were never going to extend him unless it was massive. Boras likes taking his players to free agency so unless Skubal wants to stay in Detroit, free agency is a forgone conclusion.
Massive is probably not enough to get any team to pry Skubal from the Tigers. It will take quality MLB players with longer term control plus several top prospects. Tigers made the playoffs the past two years and intend to contend in 2026. Skubal is integral to that plan. So it will take the proverbial offer you can’t refuse to get Harris to part with Skubal. The quality MLB players with longer term control will hep the team contend this year, and the prospects to help them contend in the future. I don’t see any team doing that for one year of Skubal.
You have your head in the right place. The Tigers are a very young team. They have to see this as a contention window. You have to motivate the Tigers to trade Skubal.
There are a few indignant Mets fans at the suggestion that it would cost two 50 prospects and another good prospect but I think it would cost more. For prospects I think it would have to be Bing and Williams AND a young, controllable already productive major league asset that would be plugged in in 2026. Thing is I dont know that they have that last part that would convince the Tigers.
As I have said a few times on this thread, Im sure the Tigers and their fans are happy to keep Skubal.
They can have him. He doesn’t have that eye of the tiger. Who asks to come out in a deciding game 5 up 1 run? At less than 100 pitches
Someone who is smart enough to know his own limitations?
Yeah, I think that narrative is off-base. The Mariners made every inning tough on Skubal, fouling off pitch after pitch so that each batter was a stress test. Skubal gave everything he had in the tank in the 6th and knew he didn’t have anything left for the 7th.
I’d rather a pitcher was honest about what he had left instead of him coming out for another inning where he immediately gives up a walk and 2-run HR.
The problem wasn’t Skubal. It was the Tigers’ inability to add decent arms to the bullpen that could get OUTS, and the inability to add decent bats that could drive in a freaking run.
He’ll eventually be a Dodger.
LoL. Now the Mets want a number one pitcher. After the last off-season and this past trade deadline didn’t work out.
Trade for peralta,sign skubal as free agent. The prospect haul necessary to convince the win now tigers to give up skubal would be unreasonable. Mets needed more stability and consistency than spectacular out of their pitching.
Sign Valdez, Flaherty takes 20.
Skubal
Mize
Olson
Valdez
Flaherty
Jobe midpoint.
Sign a great reliever and bring up Anderson, mcgonigle and Valencia If they aren’t great at mid season, then Trade skubal
Sure but McLean isn’t going anywhere.
Sure, he isn’t. No one is untouchable in mlb
So won’t 20 other teams. lol
I would be shocked if they traded him. I think the Tigers would have to get an absolute haul to give him up. That haul would probably have to have MLB ready talent with a few SP in there. Like I have said before I think they hold on to him and QO him after the year. They are contenders right now and you don’t dump your Cy young ace unless the package back improves your team.
They need only look back at the Verlander trade to see what a crapppy haul looks like.
If Detroit feel they have a legitimate shot for the ring they should never entertain this idea, does this means they are not going to push for one more try? Are they closing the window?
So going by Cot’s Contracts, the Mets in 2020 had a payroll below $100M. They do more than double in in 2021, leaping into having an opening day payroll at now third highest in the league. They keep spending more money…
Now for the last 4 years they’ve had either the largest or second largest opening day payroll. In that time they’ve spent around one and a quarter of billion dollars to try to get a WS title. The results: they’ve lost in the wild card round, had a sub 500 season, lost in the championship round, and now had a major collapse and lost out on a playoff spot to a team with a third of their salary.
The Mets are the anti-Yankees, the anti-Dodgers, whatever. At some point someone in their organization really needs to say, “Maybe throwing money at the problem isn’t going to help.”
The owner has acknowledged many times that a strong minor league system needs to be maintained to win at the major league level. I don’t know why people don’t hear him when he says this. He also says that he is going to spend money until such time as the minor league system is at a level he is comfortable with. It’s a process to get the organization to where he wants it, and make an attempt at winning in the short term.
“So going by Cot’s Contracts, the Mets in 2020 had a payroll below $100M. They do more than double in in 2021, leaping into having an opening day payroll at now third highest in the league.”
That’s because 2020 was 60 games. If the season had been 162 games, their payroll would have been over $150 million.
If the Tigers trade for Skenes.
You might be able to convince them both about a reasonable LT contract.
EGO, HISTORY, EGO….
NOT EVEN BORAS CAN COMPETE….
Is it permissible to talk to them in those terms beforehand? Or is that, “collusion “?
What would it to get Skenes for the Tigers?
Look, duders, if we do this FOR YOU GUYS ….we expect a reward…..
You’re crazy if you think Skenes is going to be on the market anytime soon. He’s still in his prearbitration years. They aren’t dealing him.
Yeah, I used to live in Spicewood…..
Anything is possible.
If the Tigers traded for Skenes, there wouldn’t be anything left on the Detroit roster to put on the field — aside from the Trey Sweeneys and Justyn-Henry Malloys of the world.
2027-28
And exactly why you would talk about if first before committing.
Skubal will be a Dodger. PERIOD!!
Peralta is the more logical SPer the Mets end up with if they trade for one. It may be more likely they just sign Woodruff.
I agree re Peralta/Woodruff.
Oh, I was hoping the Pirates would trade for him.
Why doesn’t Cohen just buy the Dodgers and move them to New York. All my life I’ve heard the expression of having “more money than brains.” Now I get to witness it.
That would be moving them BACK to NY.
Shocking…next we will hear the Dodgers and Yankees will too. SMH
Every team in baseball will be interested in Skubal if he is available. If the Tigers are competitive again they would be silly to trade him unless the incoming pieces can contribute in 26.
Mets have the young pitchers to get it done but does that actually make them better?
Depends what it takes, but I wouldnt trade multiple years of Tong or Mclean for 1 year of Skubal. The Mets have a long window competitive window.
Skubal is an absolute beast, but saying any pitcher is a “certainty” in this day and age is a bit far-fetched. Especially for an extended length of time. With how pitchers throw these days, they’re all one injury away from being knocked down a notch on the food chain. It’s dangerous anytime you lock up a ton of money with one player for a long term.
They won’t be the only ones.
BREAKING NEWS!
?
___________________________ (fill in the blank) expected to be interested in Tarik Skubal
So which team WOULDN’T BE interested in acquiring Tarik Skubal? What a stupid story..
We don’t need Skubal. We have Schlittler. He will be one of the best pitchers in the AL.
And water is wet.
Besides Skubal, also read a few articles that the Mets are going to make the D’Backs a trade offer for 2B Marte has anyone else heard or read about this.