October 17th: Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that Detroit’s offer after 2024 was for four years and less than $100MM.
October 16th: The Tigers are now down to their final season of control over the American League’s best pitcher. Tarik Skubal is entering his last year of arbitration and trending towards the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote this evening that Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM. Heyman reports that Detroit’s extension offer last offseason was shy of the $170MM which Garrett Crochet received from the Red Sox in April. Heyman specifies that the Tigers’ offer came before Crochet’s extension.
Much will be made of the more than $200MM gap between those two numbers, but that doesn’t consider the timing of Detroit’s offer. The front office certainly wouldn’t be under any illusions now that a sub-$200MM proposal would be close. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years from free agency and before the Crochet precedent.
It wasn’t clear last offseason that Crochet would command as strong a deal as he did. That contract was nearly $50MM above the previous top extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time (Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from 2019). The Red Sox certainly don’t have any regrets after Crochet’s dominant ’25 season, but that deal pushed the extension market dramatically forward. While it’s not clear precisely what Detroit had offered, it’s safe to presume it was north of the deGrom extension and would have been a record within his service class before the Crochet signing.
Skubal bet on himself and is in position to truly cash in as a result. He’s going to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.21 ERA with 241 strikeouts across 31 starts. He is two and a half seasons removed from the flexor surgery that ended his 2022 campaign. Most importantly, he’s now 12 months away from the open market.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto received the largest guarantee for a pitcher in MLB history when he signed with the Dodgers for $325MM. That was in large part due to his unusual circumstances coming over from Japan. He was an established ace in NPB and widely viewed as one of the two best pitchers (alongside Paul Skenes) who had yet to pitch in MLB at the time. Yamamoto came over before his age-25 season — earlier than any MLB ace could accrue the necessary six years of service time to hit free agency. He commanded a 12-year deal that was three years longer than any other pitching contract.
Among domestic free agent pitchers, Gerrit Cole has the record on his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees. Cole had yet to win a Cy Young but was coming off two straight top five finishes. He hit the market at age 29, while Skubal is on track to become a free agent at 30. Cole’s deal is six years old, so there’ll surely be an adjustment for inflation.
Cole’s $36MM average annual value was a record for a pitcher at the time. It’s now down to sixth — not including the Shohei Ohtani deal — on an annual basis. Late-career aces Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have each reached or topped $42MM on two- or three-year contracts. deGrom received $37MM annually on his five-year deal with Texas, while Blake Snell is making $36.4MM per season from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that drop the net present AAV to the $31-32MM range).
Those are all free agent precedents. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Skubal for a $17.8MM salary in his last arbitration year. Detroit wouldn’t get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason would come with the risk that he suffers an injury next year.
The Tigers have signed two contracts above $200MM: Prince Fielder’s free agent deal and Miguel Cabrera’s franchise-high $248MM extension. They’re each more than a decade old and came under the ownership tenure of the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, they’ve signed one nine-figure deal — the $140MM Javier Baez addition. Detroit has a relatively clean long-term payroll outlook aside from Baez’s $24MM salaries over the next two seasons. Jack Flaherty has a $20MM player option for 2026, while Colt Keith is signed for $4-5MM for the next four years.
[Related Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Skubal Trade?]
There’s enough payroll space that it’s conceivable the Tigers could make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If talks don’t gain traction, they’d need to decide whether to hold him for a final season or entertain trade possibilities. Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff berths and spent most of the ’25 season in control of the AL Central. It’s difficult to envision the Tigers being legitimate contenders in 2026 if they were to trade Skubal, even if they built a return around controllable big league talent. There’s a strong argument for simply holding Skubal in the hope that he carries them to a deep postseason run and making a qualifying offer next winter. If they struggle in the first half, he’d be a marquee deadline trade chip.
The alternative this offseason would be to follow the respective Red Sox, Padres and Astros precedents with Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Those teams all traded their superstar before his final season of arbitration. That went terribly for Boston. San Diego did very well on the Soto return and has won at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Houston’s trade of Tucker. They got a strong three-player return but came up shy of the postseason this year. Those teams were all navigating short-term payroll restrictions from ownership that shouldn’t be an issue for Detroit with how little money they have on the books.
President of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer when asked about Skubal’s future during the Tigers’ end-of-season presser on Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded … so I’m going to respond by not actually commenting on it,” Harris said. “Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.”
I fully expect Skubal to be on the Tigers roster come opening day, and if they’re in contention come July, I expect he’ll finish the season with the team before he hits FA. At that point, the market will dictate his future. But, for Detroit fans to be crying like he’s already gone when there’s a whole year left on his contract seems a bit of an over-reaction.
Agreed. I for one am looking forward to one more great year from him in a Tigers uniform. Then we’ll see.
If the tigers let skubal cross the trade deadline without an extension and lose him for a QO pick everyone in the front office should be fired, even the security guards and ushers
Not if the Tigers are in serious contention. Keep him, make a deep playoff run, and take the QO.
I have to agree as a Jays fan. Bo was in the same position at the start of the season. It looked like he would be gone at the deadline after Toronto May, but they got hot, kept him, and while he been out for a month, they likely don’t make it to where they are now without him for a majority of the season. If you have a shot to win it this year, you go for it and let the chips fall where they may after the season.
Bo was not in the same position. Bo is a nice player, but there are a number of other shortstops you would just as soon have. Skubal is one of the five best pitchers in MLB. Bo was coming off a very down season, raising questions about whether his career decline had already begun, Skubal is coming off two straight Cy Young awards. The Jays were in a position to pay Bo his open market value, the Tigers probably aren’t in a financial position to match what Skubal will be offered. And the Jays best prospect is a shortstop, so signing Bo long-term might have blocked him (with Andrés Giménez signed long term, they can’t move Bo to 2B), the Tigers have no replacement for Skubal (nor does anybody else). The Tigers should definitely be shopping Skubal this off-season to see what they can get. If they decide to keep him for next season, they need to go out and spend to put a real offense, another starting pitcher, and a deeper bullpen around him. There is no point going for it, if you don’t go for it. (Ps I see a SF Giant future for Skubal. They are prepared to spend to compete with LA, it is a great pitchers park and Skubal is from the Bay area.)
Bronxlou – Agree with your Tiger strategy – but not the SF option. Skubal is from Arizona and went to Seattle University. What Bay Area connection?
Skubal was born and raised near Hayward, CA in the East SF Bay Area just a car ride down the freeway from the Oakland Coliseum former. home of the A’s.
Remember the scene in “Moneyball” with Billy Beane driving down the freeway in his pickup truck?
Skubal played in hardball leagues in the SF Bay Area.
Skubal and his family moved to Kingman,Arizona I think when he was in High School.
Skubal went to college in Seattle WA.
(most likely, on a baseball scholarship).
Dusty- No way. The chance of winning a World Series (with the best pitcher in the league on your team) is of far greater value than a prospect. Tigers should have a contending team in ’26. Tigers season came down to one run in the end, could have gone either way, but things just didn’t work out for them, but they were right there. They’d have had as good as shot as the Jays, Dodgers or Brewers if they’d have been able to score just one more run.
I think anytime your thinking aligns to the angels it’s a pretty good idea it’s off.
Angels ‘went’ for it with Ohtani and lost one of the best trade chips of all time for a faux playoff run.
And Greg; appreciate the jays just did this and I love Bo but you’re not restocking the farm with a Bo trade. Skubal is way too valuable, it would be poor asset management.
But I do hope tigers find a reasonable extension for him.
Dusty- you can easily pick examples on both sides. The article even mentions the Mookie Betts example. If I’m the Tigers this off-season, I’m considering all my options: extension, trade, and simply keeping Skubal and see where we’re at come the trade deadline. I would only trade Skubal for an epic return with MLB or near ready MLB pieces, because the Tigers have a solid controllable core, they don’t want high end guys who are 2-4 years away, they want to capitalize now and see how long they can keep their competitive window open in a very winnable division (especially knowing how much payroll flexibility they have to work with). Extension is obviously the first priority, but if that fails, I think they can only take a trade if it can give them pieces to help over the next few years, otherwise, you keep Skubal.
It’s Tarik freaking Skubal, you can trade him for whatever you want.
I posted this earlier on a different site. Skubal to the Dodgers for Andy Pages, Alex Freeland, Jackson Ferris and River Ryan. Give him a head start on being a Dodger.
No you can’t. There’s not gonna be baseball in 2027. Just keep him and see what happens
What difference does that make? Skubal becomes a free agent when the Worls Series ends., October 31. The CBA doesn’t expire until December 1st. Nothing about the CBA expiring or there being no baseball in 2027 changes the fact that he will not be under contract with the Tigers as of Oct. 31. I’m not sure what you think might happen if we don’t trade him and the CBA expires.
They want 400-500 million. Cohen will pay it. If the Tigers are smart they let him go. May of these long term big money deals dont work out. Yamamoto deal may not work out either over time. Too many things can go wrong.
Waiting for this post.
I agree with most of your points except for waiting to make a trade at the deadline. Teams won’t be giving up a huge package for Skubal for a couple of months than teams would for a year of having him. Keeping him through the 26 season and extending a QO and getting comp pick when he signs elsewhere doesn’t replace Skubal either.
This off-season the tigers have to figure out if they can sign him or they need to see what they can get for him. None of the other options move the ball forward.
Even if there isn’t baseball in 2027 Skubal is still a free agent. I do think the CBA is a big part of this.
teams don’t know what to expect. Even more of a reason to trade him this offseason.
Why would it be more of a reason to trade him this offseason? (Not arguing with you, R-Dog: I just don’t understand the implications of a lockout/CBA.)
@84 The collective bargining agrement with the players expires 12/1/2026. Teams will have no clue what the financials will be with the new agreement heading in to 2027 and beyond. I’m not saying this as a fact, that does seem to be playing a role in the lack of a Skubal extension.
@Randog Historically all CBAs that have had major changes to economic in terms of rosters have had protections for existing payrolls and contracts. This has been a constant among all pro sports.
Nearly always these changes have a huge impact on the large market teams. And its not just their best interests, small market teams and the leagues as a whole are more viable when large market teams are strong and financially healthy.
@tigers I’m not coming from that angle when it comes to the financial side of things with the upcoming CBA. Remember when it was reported Harper was screaming at Manfred about the players not wanting a salary cap? Players don’t want it but many teams do and they want it in the next CBA. No one knows if they will get a cap or what it looks like as we sit today if they do.
To your points yeah, if there ends up being a cap, there will need to be provisions for the bigger spending teams to get under any cap. Like with the dodgers and Ohtani’s contract. 98.5% of that contact doesn’t get paid until the 2030’s. A salary cap could be problematic with all that deferred money for one guy.
@Randog Ohtani’s contractbis being paid now funding the principal on the deferrals per the CBA. They currently pay him $2M annually as well as $44M to fund the deferrals annually as its deferred. They are charged against luxury tax accordingly. So nothing at all problematic there.
@tigers I’m well aware of the luxury tax and deferrals.. All of which exist in the currant cba and have been a part of baseball for years. Nothing new there.
Unfortunately, the Tigers team did not have the hitting to compete with the Jays, Brewers, Dodgers and others in the playoffs.
Tigers must improve their hitting and offense without sacrificing their defense or they will not win the World Series with or without Skubal.
Example, Meadows in CF is a 5th or 6th Outfielder.
Great on Defense, but why was he leading off when he struggled to hit 200?!
Why is Meadowsthe #1 Tigers CF?
The Tigers SS and 3B situation are both low offensive production for the Tigers.
Gleybar Torres was great in 1st half. He had severe injury and his performance tanked in the 2nd half.
The Tigers had no depth to replace him and let him heal.
The Tigers had no depth @ SS & 3B either
The Tigers had a lot of injured and underperforming starters also.
Javier Baez was a great comeback story, but he is becoming more of a part time utility player.
Unless the Tigers are planning upgrades in the off season
to: CF, SS, 3B and their starting rotation to play behind Skubal in ’26, then the Tigers are not a World Series winnimg team in ’26.
I tip my hat to Tigers Manager AJ Hinch for a masterful managing job getting the Tigers to the playoffs 2 years in a row.
The Tigers team looks very promising for their future when their best minor league players/prospects are promoted to and producing for the big league club.
I believed at the time that Arte Moreno and the Angels should have traded Ohtani in his last year and scored a big return of talent that could have put them in the playoffss not long after the deal even without Ohtani.
Nope. Trade incoming
Same here.
Get some deferred years for Skubal. The motor city kitties can do it.
York – They offered him only $100M after winning the Cy last year?
Damn, I wouldn’t blame Skubal for being like “See ya” after that. That’s as low of a lowball offer as you can get.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Okay, then off to the Dodgers he goes…
If this was the 90s, I’d be saying Yankees but since George passed away, the Dodgers have taken over his role in baseball. The Yankees just spend money for the sake of spending money.
York – You know the Dodgers don’t have the highest payroll, right?
I don’t see them doing it. They’ve got 4 star SP’s locked into huge longterm deals, SP is not really a need for them, they need offense. Freeman & Muncy & Teo & Mookie will all be 33-36 and Conforto is gone. They will go after Tucker instead.
I can see the Mets, Jays, Astros, Giants, Angels, Red Sox? all making a bid for him.
The Dodgers currently have the highest:
spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025
And honestly, I’m not sure if the Jays, Astros, Giants & Red Sox are going to sink that much money. I could see the Angels doing that and Mets, though. We’ll see.
York – Interesting, how did the Dodgers pass the Mets after Opening Day?
The Giants and Jays have been looking for a big ticket free agent star for a while, the Astros dumped Tucker and will probably lose Framber so they’ve got the budget space and need for a top SP, and the Red Sox offered $600M for Soto therefore they can afford $382M for Skubal. I think the Sox will finally push into the Top Ten in payroll again, their window is now because they’ve got so much young talent on relatively low contracts.
Apples and Oranges….an everyday player, especially a generational one as Soto is defined as, while expensive is a far better bet to spend on as compared to almost $400 million for a pitcher who will make 30-32 starts, albeit one of the top 5 in the league but how did the contract work that Sale got from the Sox when he began to break down….over time, all those young talented guys on low contracts will demand to be paid….Detroit will most likely re-sign him depending on how their 26 season goes.
Thank Gawd conforto is gone. nothing cmfortable about him at all this entire year. Yikes, he had a WAR of 0.07.
Only 100m was only for 2 arb years and 2 free agent years.
It was a very reasonable bridge deal, that no big name free agent would accept.
But it was certainly a more than fair offer.
Tigers – I dunno ….. he got paid $10M this year and is projected for $22.5M next year.
So $67.5M for 2 free agent years isn’t much for a short-term deal for a reigning Cy Young winner.
Heck, Crochet got $170M and that was without even one solid season as a starting pitcher.
Tigers – his two salary for two years post arbitration should be near 100MM, so not really “more than fair”.
Wheeler has an AAV of 42MM. Burnes, Cole, deGrom, Snell all 35MM+.
If youre offering a short term deal, you pay a premium (ie Red Sox and Bregman for 40MM yes deferrals, but still 40MM).
Youre confusing free agents years and arbitration years.
Arbitration years are always cheaper 10m for 25 expected 17.5 for 26.
So 72.5m for 2 years. Thats how bridge deals work. You overpay for the arbitration years while slightly underpaying a few agent year or two.
Look at Keith’s deal. Hes getting massively overpaid for his controlled years right now with the assumption the last year or 2 it’ll be a team friendly bargain.
With that said, if youre Skubal, you’d never accept a bridge deal because hes already hitting free agency at an old age of 30. He will only get 1 major deal, so he has to cash in while he can. Bridge deals are more likely with younger guys.
My point is that his two year salary post arobitrairom should be near 100MM if he does a short term deal because the team would need to overpay for those years. The Sox paid a big premium (33%+ probably) to get Bregman on that short term deal. Skubal would command top dollar for a SP, and that’s currently Wheeler at 42MM.
Wirh a short term deal, you’re looking at 52 (25% premium) or more.
So that means, without including the two arbitration years, you’re already over 100MM.
That was before he won his 1st Cy Young and before Crochet’s trade and extension.
Would love to extend him but I am doubting Chris Ilitich will want to go to $400 million. I will just enjoy next season in case it’s our last with Skubal as a Tiger.
If it was Mike he would’ve sent the brinks truck to skubal by now
Thats kind of a myth. If you look at payroll and revenue it actually went up after he passed. And all but one year from their decade of contention they were profitable.
The real issue was they were falling short and numerous contracts were expiring and payroll would have ballooned even further. It was clearly time for a rebuild.
Since then the Tigers have showed a willingness to spend when time was right or seemed that way. After a promising 2021 they went out and spent but went on to regress. The lastb2 offseasons they have spent as well. I did not like the Cobb signing from the start and felt Boyd was an obvious fit. Other than that I think they should ve spent on an OF. They attempted to sign Bregman he chose to go elsewhere. Aside from that the young players pretty much had cemented their spots after their magical 2024 finish.
Mike tried that with Scherzer.
Scherzer and his agent
Boras turned Mike & Tigers down flat
@SportsFan That would be Max that turned him down. The player has ultimate say.
Max and Scott Boras turned thr Tigers offer down.
Players do not hire Boras to sign team friendly deals.
They hire Boras to go to the frre agent auction for maximum dollars.
Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM
==========================
He could, but he won’t get it. And could seek $500M. And he could seek $600M.
I fail to see the relevance of what a player ‘could’ possibly do, if they won’t get it.
He very well could get $400M.
Certainly deserving of at least Snell’s AAV.
For sure he is but he won’t get more than double the term that Snell got.
Snell’s contract’s present day value is $150M based on the deferrals baked in. Skubal will hit free agency in a year and he’ll be a year older than Gerritt Cole when he signed his deal 9/$324M five years ago. I can see Skubal’s next contract at least come close to or exceed that in dollar value.
Wake up and Smell the Coffee.
Skubal will get 400M+
His agent is Boras.
Boras takes his clients to the free agent auction like he did with Max Scherzer when he pitched for the Tigers.
Players hire Boras to have him auction them off in free agency to the highest bidder and to squeeze ever penny possible from the process.
There will be no home team discounts for Boras clients.
The only question is: will a trading team fork over 5-6 top young players & prospects with huge upside for the 1 year gamble that Skubal puts them over the top to help then win a World Series Championship as a 1 year rental?!
It could be a franchise changing trade for both the Tigers and the team involved.
It could set the Tigers up with a “loaded” major league roster for a longer window of contention for Championships.
It would require at least 4 young, cost controlled very valuable players who are major league ready or already in the big leagues plus a few prospects.
(2 young pitchers, a young CF who can hit and defend and a young 3B or SS).
Otherwise, the Tigers hang onto Skubal for 1 more year and let him walk for a draft pick.
10 year $400 million with deferrals bringing present value to like $32-33MM per year should be doable for the Tigers. Give him a NTC and an opt -out after year 4. Unfortunately, he will probably be a Dodger, because Tigers ownership won’t do it.
Baltimore should be all over this. But it’ll be LAD
Baltimore has shown that whether it’s Angelos or the new old guy, they won’t spend for a pitcher
My cousin knows this guy that says it’ll be the Phillies.
The guy your cousin knows must not know baseball. Gut their farm for a rental? While trying to bring back all of their free agents? While simultaneously mulling paying $20MM for a player to play elsewhere? Your cousin should strictly trust people with brain cells.
You’re on a site that publishes predictions, commenting on a board full of people who like to make predictions, and the best use of your time here is sarcastic remarks to people making predictions? Might be time to find a new board Bart, unless you’re similar to your “cousins friend”. Loosen up. Would love to hear some of your predictions, thoughts, expectations of this off-season.
I meant no harm.
I know, Bart. You’ve been a respectable and well informed commenter on here for as long as I’ve been here. Maybe I read into your sarcastic humor a bit too deep. My apologies. Look forward to your insight into this offseason on future comment boards!
MLB needs to outlaw significant deferrals. Almost as big of an issue as the financial inequity
Agreed, Gbfl.
Maybe they’ll address it in the next CBA, but I doubt it.
It helps both teams and players who are willing to accept deferrals.
All that being said, we do need a fifth starter since Kershaw is retiring. So why not?
Dodgers always have a lot of pitching injuries.
The 5 players penciled in to start im ’26, at lesst 2 or 3 will get hurt
You’re confusing financial inequity with payroll inequity. Owners are very capable of investing across the league – some choose not to.
Cheap owners love it when someone plays the payroll card – that’s one less person they need to fool.
Cheap owners love the excuse of being small market. The Padres owner proves the cheap owners are full of it
@Gbfl No they do not need to outlaw referrals. The funding of deferrals is clearly outlined in CBA and deferalls have to be funded annually with the principal needed to accrue to the eventual paid value. And that principle is charged accordingly against CBA.
The only issue with deferrals is the topic shows how many fans either dont know the CBA and/or are financially illiterate. I hope its more so lack of knowing the CBA. If ma.y of those not understanding deferrals is due to financial illiteracy, we as a society are hopeless.
Having tried many times to explain the arithmetic of deferrals with little success, I have concluded that financial illiteracy is the main culprit. It should be clear enough to anyone who has ever borrowed money that they have to pay back more than the principal, but it seems not. I guess this is one reason why so many people are deeply in debt.
Any team can defer salaries if the player agrees to it. One of the reasons it is so attractive is the fairly low interest rate set in the CBA to price out present value. If MLB and the players wanted to discourage the practice they could set the interest rate higher. This hasn’t happened and probably won’t because both parties are happy with the current rules.
Yeah every large contract should really have deferrals built in so the player would be paying less tax by receiving this income when they retire.
The smart play would be to auction Skubal off in a trade this offseason with numerous teams involved: Mets,Yankees, Dodgers,Dbacks,Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, Orioles . All those teams have lots of players that the Tigers could use and are in striking distance of a World Series Championship in ’26.
I mostly agree, SF. But what team is going to give Detroit multiple MLB ready players to keep them in contention, while receiving a rental SP and trying to stay a contender themselves? I think in that sense, only the Mets and Dodgers actually make sense. A bidding war between them could definitely net some nice pieces, but Skubal should be a Tiger lifer. The whole playing “poor billionaire” shtick is getting old from some of these teams.
Love Skubal.
But realistically,it would be smart for the Tigers seriouslt consider taking the best offer if it includes 2 young major league and/or major league ready starters at at least 2 young hitters who can field too!
Skubal is great, but that’s a big ask. Now if these arms and bats aren’t the top quality, then sure.
The price will be sky high for Skubal to change uniforms and cities in ’26.
Otherwise, he stays put to try to pitch the Tigers to a World Series Title
For me the question is, do you as a front office executive believe that you have a team that will be seriously competing for a championship currently and in the future with Skubal on the team. If the answer is yes, then you have to do what it takes to keep Skubal. If you don’t believe that you currently have that team or Skubal doesn’t want to stick around, you have to deal him for the absolute most return you can get. Trading him can certainly fill in a lot of holes a team needs to fill currently and for the future, but at the same time are you prepared to lose one of the best pitchers in baseball even if its only a guarantee that he sticks around for one more year? A tough spot to be in for sure.
Tigers could approach the Mets for a trade and extension. Mets have the prospects and Cohen has the cash.
Boras won’t do a trade-extension deal on his pending free agents.
It would be a one year rental like the last Soto trade.
Your analysis is good, but it’s from a fan’s perspective. The organization has a different perspective. While their stated goal is to win a World Series, their true objective is to maximize profitability. So, when deciding on whether or not to offer a massive contract, they consider the marginal difference between Skubal and another capable pitcher they could pick up on the free agent market for a fraction of the cost. For instance, if they win 90% of the games Skubal pitches and another decent pitcher is 75%, the question is whether or not those 3 or 4 games are worth $30 million extra.
Are they?
Tigers collapsed in the 2nd half and barely made the playffs
With Cleveland getting the Division.
Tigers did not look like a World Series team in the 2nd half and playoffs.
Some of the Tigers best players and prospects will still be in the minors in ’26.
Some teams with deep farm systems
have great young players @ AA and AAA
who are blocked by too many star players on the big league ballclub.
Tigers need those kind of major league ready top players and prospe ts to compete both short term and long term.
OR, they get just 1 more year of Skubal and A draft pick that may not pan out for years if ever.
A Hard Choice, though difficult. must be made for the long term contention of the Tigers.
Absolutely. From an organizational standpoint, it would be advantageous to trade him for some young stud with years of club control.
I really like the fact that the Tigers didn’t push in their chips to go all in. There were a lot of people down on Harris’s deadline deals. They are justified in being unhappy with the performance of Paddack and Morton. But, they struck gold with Finnegan and even Montero seemed to unlock something. But the bottom line in that the farm is still intact. That’s going to pay off down the road. That’s called prudence.
Agree on that analysis.
Tigers team is very close to a decade of solid contending for the playoffs and WS every year.
It would have been reckless to blow all that up for their team this year that crash landed into the playoffs on the last day of the season.
The wild card is the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) which expires in December 2026 and at this point no one knows if it will be renewed for the 2027 season to start on time. The major issue is the Salary Cap as the owners want one and the players don’t. With this CBA renewal hanging in balance there is little reason for the Tigers to sign Skubal to a lengthy extension when it could result in taking up a significant percentage of the teams Salary Cap. The sides are so divided on the Salary Cap it could put the entire 2027 season in jeopardy. So let’s enjoy the 2026 season, hope Skubal and the Tigers have another great run and hope for the best after that
Things are not looking good for 2027 since the dodgers are 3-0
Let’s say they win it again this year and then proceed to sign Kyle Tucker, that would be enough fuel for the salary cap argument
Tucker signing with Dodgers would not sway anything. Free agents have typically come at a premium and part of that premium is name recognition. As far as talent it often requires overpaying to varying degrees. But as a whole big names signing in bigger markets generated the most revenue for MLB as a whole.
The financial disparity in MLB is nothing new either, it goes back 100 years. In the end its ultimately best for the sport and MLB when big market teams spend. Postseason generated more revenue with the big market teams. And fans typically either love or hate teams like the Yankees or Dodgers. That love hate generates revenue and interest tho. Even if fans hate these teams most typically would still ideally go to games they are the opponent.
Kyle Tucker is overrated.
His hitting stats don’t scream superstar player.
He does not carry his team offensively and defensively.
Whichever team overpays for Tucker will regret it in 1,2 years.
I don’t see them adding Tucker. He’s a very good player, but this year he and bellinger were basically the same player.
Tucker is over rated. His homer totals were just average for his position and he did not hit 300 either.
There never getting a salary cap 2027 will just move the needle a bit more. Charge more taxes and penalties while raising the threshold. It’s a tale as old as time.
You’re thinking of a hard cap. In the event of a cap, any prior contracts signed before a new CBA takes effect can also be negotiated to grant some kind of “grandfather provision”.
Here’s a balanced-take from Passan;
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46294140/mlb-labor-negotia…
The Tigers wouldn’t offer him $170m immediately after he won the Cy Young?
@Yankees Mets need to go after Skenes. IMO, he’s better.
“better” now is splitting hairs but Skenes is younger and will likely be better longer
True, but I don’t think that Skenes is available.
Pirates are waiting until Benes is 1 or 2 years from free agency.
That was when he alluded to that $400M # in an interview. I think it would as s actually prior to being named the winner but was obvious at that point.
Ultimately the Tigers missed the window to extend him. The talent was obvious for year now, it just hadn’t came completely together for Skubal. But 2022-2023 was the time they should ve been trying. With most players 2024 they’d still have had leverage but in Skubal’s case he had such a great 2024 and dwindling team control, so the leverage going his way sped up exponentially.
Yep, went from a 6 year, 170 M$ pitcher to an 11 year, 400 M$ pitcher.
They probably offered an extension and were rebuked. His agent Boras does not do team friendly extensions.
Maybe they did.
But, it doesn’t matter.
It is Max Scherzer 2.0
Scherzer was also repped by Boras.
Boras does not do “team friendly” deals.
Boras is not the one who makes ultimate decision, hes obviously going to advise against them in most cases.
As for Scherzer hes on MLBPA executive subcommittee, has been vocally pro union and player publicly, and has been active in MLBPA for years. So bringing up Boras is not all that relevant. However what Id say is kind of relevant here would be Skubal is also a MLBPA rep and has he himself been active in MLBPA.
Ultimately I think Tigers should continue working on a very unlikely extension. This will allow them to wither narrow gap for a future deal and/or measure whether a trade is in their best interest b it now, trade deadline, or some point in between.
You are kidding right?!
Boras is driving the deals with his clients.
He does consult with them on offers.
But, the Client/Player has hired Boras and is paying him millions in commissions to get him the best, highest dollar value and longest term in years for his FA contract.
There are still a few players who negotiate their own deals with teams.
Players don’t hire Boras if they are going to negotiate their own deals, since they would still have to pay Boras millions in contractual commissions & fees and they still have to train, be players, concentrate on winning etc..
All of Boras’s Clients follow the same pattern of negotiations. Scherzer and Skubal are no different.
Sherzer was not involved in the MLB Players Union until after
Boras auctionied him off to the Nats for his 1st huge FA contract So that comment is not relevant to his first trip through free agency.
And, he probabl learned a lot about the labor situation from his agent Boras.
Boras Corporation represents roughly 175 MLB players, most do not get these mega contracts and most are not like Scherzer or Skubal. Both of them eho are involved in MLBPA and have a desire to represent players.
I never said these players negotiated deals, Im quite aware thats why they hire agents. These agents do however negation their behalf and any deal the player ultimately approves.
What exactly goes into “be players” and “concentrate on winning”???? I understand the time involved with training, the other 2 though you care to elaborate on what eats up their time during offseason on being players and concentrating on winning?
Scherzer was the MLBPA players rep for DET from 2010-2014 he was not elected to executive subcommittee til later while with the WAS.
Let’s not get into speculation as to how or why he got involved with anything. Doing so is taking wild guesses and provides zero value as it is total speculation.
Honestly, I trust my local weather forecaster to accurately predict the weather more than I trust Heyman.
Love Skubal, followed him since he was in the minor leagues. However, I think he wants to test free agency, might do even better than $400 million. If Tigers get a strong trade return I’ll be OK with it, not the junk they got for Verlander.
Tigers are not going to sign Skubal to an extension. Skubal and his agent Bora$$ want to go to the open market and see what his value is. Tigers would have to offer a stupidly high contract to get him to forgo free agency. Right now they are bidding against themselves. No doubt Skubal would love to stay in Detroit….IF they give him the best contract. But you don’t hire Bora$$ as your agent if you are willing to give a hometown discount.
This isn’t to say the Tigers shouldn’t keep trying. Keep channels open, make Skubal a good offer and make him say no. Then make him a QO, collect the draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Keep tabs on his market and if it isn’t going where Skubal wants then re-engage him and see if you can’t work something out.
7 years @ 50 per. He’s 29. 350 mil and you don’t have to move.
He’ll be traded next July.
Not if they are in 1st place.
If the Tigers trade him, then he should be traded by the end of Spring Training.
Get 2 young starters, 1 young INF that can hit and defend (3B or SS),
a new, young CF who can also hit and some promising prospects and the team could still be in 1st place by the All Star break.
I don’t see any way he would want to re-sign with the Tigers. They won’t pay the money that another team will, but somebody’s gonna be stupid like they were for Soto.
Or Jason Heyward…
My comment clearly hurt you, didn’t it.
Yep. Ya got me.
I listened to an interview with Ty Madden, Tiger rookie pitcher. While he was very complimentary, he made a comment on how Skubal was kind of by himself in the dugout. He sort of made it sound like Skubal was in his own little world. I’m probably overreacting to the comment, but part of me thinks that Madden was surprised how little Skubal embraced him. It could have just been game day focus. The comment didn’t reference Skubal’s schedule. I don’t know, it just sounded a little like Skubal was not All Tiger Uber Alles.
FWIW, I’m 100% sure Skubal/Boras are going to test free agency. I see the Tigers chance of resigning him at 20% tops.
Pretty easy to see, as in previous comments above, that you don’t have Boras as your agent if your all in to re-sign with your current team once you have the chance to hit free agency…unless your current team offers the highest salary and the most years……his All Tiger Uber Alles is better defined as I’m about to be my own independent contractor after this season and I’m going to go for it….
Heyman is getting a head start on working the Boras clients.
he’a gone. the previous Ilitch would have done it though
Mike Ilitch could not sign Max Scherzer who also had Boras as his agent.
Chris will not sign Skubal either,
Skenes and Skubal on the same team……..
Dodgers?
With Boras as his agent, the Tigers will have to offer/pay top dollar. They’ll need to offer deferrals & hope he accepts so they have money to surround him with other good/great players.
Skubal is as good as gone.
Smartest move would be to trade him and plug multiple holes on the team with the returning players in the trade.
Could someone please explain how this salary cap is supposed to work? Some teams have contracts that are guaranteed for the next 10 years. If the amount of guaranteed money already exceeds the cap, how are teams supposed to get under the cap? I can’t see the players going for a cap (although I think if the focused on a high floor, they might actually make more money overall) and I damn sure can’t see them voiding current contracts or cutting pay on current contracts.
It doesn’t have to work because it will never happen.
Heyman reporting whatever Boras tells him to is an annual rite of autumn.
Anyone who has followed free agency and baseball negotiations for the past 15+ years
knows what Heyman is already reporting about Boras and fill in the blank__________Skubal’s situation.
There is no reason for the Tigers not to make one more run with Skubal next season, but there is also no reason they shouldn’t be able to sign him long-term either. The Tigers have just over $28 million on the books for 2027 and $24 million of it belongs to Baez. From 2028-2030 they have less than $13 million combined on the books. Even if Skubal got $300-400 million it wouldn’t hurt a team with zero long-term contracts
Skubal will be a Met by 2027 via this way or that.
The amount Cohen agrees to pay him will help extend the coming work stoppage.
Cohen best hope that the eventual settlement will grandfather in at least two of his pre-stoppage contracts from the new cap or new cap-like punishments.
Maybe 9/370 gets it done? If you get 6 great years out of the 9, it’s a win.
I can see him getting $40-42 million AAV with deferrals that bring the value down to the $37-38 million level. 8-10 years.
All of that is something the Angels will never do as long as Arte owns the team. We will never have a Skubal type free agent coming our way in Anaheim.
Jon Heyman is a hack.
He is reporting the facts and his long career backs up what he is saying.
He needs to do something about those nauseating little phlegm-wads that appear and disappear from his lip(s) while he’s speaking.
Great pitcher
But putting all your payroll into one pitcher can have consequences
Look at what the yanks got from COLE in 2025
Cole is at 20 Bwar over the 6 seasons in NY and that includes the missed season and the Covid season. So averaging over 4BWAR including the missed season. That been worth the contract.
Yankee fans are only concerned with one thing winning a world championship. He has not brought that to the Yankees so he is a failure as well as the rest of the team according to the fans.
Trading Betts looks terrible for Boston only if you believe that keeping Betts for 2020 would have led to an extension in Boston — which is far from certain, given how far apart the sides reportedly were in negotiations. By trading Betts, they got Alex Verdugo, who was good-not-great in Boston for 4 years and then they traded his last year of club control to the Yankees (their main rivals) for 2 pitching prospects. Verdugo wasn’t enough to get the Yankees past the Dodgers in the WS and they could have used those 2 pitching prospects this year. They then got Jeter Downs, one of the shortstops in MLB history. They also got Connor Wong, who has been a serviceable MLB catcher. Most importantly, the trade allowed them to dump David Price. And finally, the Red Sox were never going to contend for anything in 2020 and trading Betts allowed them to commit to the tank which landed them the #4 pick in the 2021 MLB draft which ultimately became Marcelo Mayer. Not bad for one pandemic-shortened season of a guy.
“Trading Betts looks terrible for Boston only if you believe that keeping Betts for 2020 would have led to an extension in Boston”
Betts has said many times that he wanted to stay in Boston and would have signed the same contract with Boston that he ended up signing with Los Angeles. Take it for what it’s worth but I tend to believe him
The pertinent question is would the Red Sox have offered him the same contract that LA signed him to? I seem to recall them being pretty far apart in extension talks. What they got is still better than a QO comp pick.
By all accounts they did not and would not offer that. I agree that trading him was better than letting him walk but with the benefit of hindsight, being less frugal in negotiations likely would have been the best outcome
Padres traded Soto(1 year rental) and Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for five players: right-handed pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe, as well as catcher . Kyle Higashioka
For the Tigers: King became a #1 starter, Vasquez became #5 starter, Higashioka became the Padres starting catcher and had a solid year. Brito became a spot starter and reliever. Thorpe was packaged by the Padres with a few other prospects and flipped to the White Sox for 2 years of Dyland Cease as one of the Padres starters for 2 90+ win seasons.
That Trade helped both teams contend.
Not when you consider what the Padres gave up to get Soto in the first place.
I was strongly against the Soto from the Nats to the Padres deal.
A vast overpay by Padres
I really hope they find a way to extend him and continue to contend. Homegrown stars especially lights out pitchers are a blast
400 mil for a guy who is still probably going to experience the proverbial “forearm tightness” and eventual TJS? Good luck with that.
Had TJ in college, which led to subpar numbers and a lucky 9th round draft selection. He also had flexor tendon repair in mid-2022; he became Tarik the Beast when he came back one year later.
I don’t care how good he is any SP is a huge risk for missing almost 2 years for TJS ….and most times at least a season of sub par performance afterward.
If he doesn’t get extended this offseason, which pitcher will end up being the rumor of the most craziest trade proposals: Skubal or Skenes? Or will someone try to make an argument of a three team trade where they get both pitchers for only a few prospects?
400M is a big number for a pitcher…. and once Skubal gets it one way or another (assuming no catastrophes) we’ll only be able to start to imagine what Skenes will command for an extension for whatever team eventually trades for him.
But the way I see it it’s really a matter of the question: Which would the Tigers regret more? Paying him $400M and run the risk of injuries and regression turning him into the great “could have been” or letting him walk/trading him for prospects and watching him dominate in the playoffs for the next few years?
It is not the Tigers choice.
It is Scherzer 2.0 with the same results looming.
He’ll be traded out of Detroit before the start of the season.
Not sure which teams are left that would pay him 400 million. Dodgers have a full rotation, yanks and red sox have been working with a budget. Maybe the mets?
Mets is my bet.
Mets, Cubs, Braves, D Bacs, Yankees, Blue Jays…lots of options.
He’s from California, wants the kind of money the Dodgers can afford, and wants to win. I would love for the Tigers to be able to convince him to stay in Detroit but I just feel like the odds are not in their favor. We’ll see how it plays out over the next year.
Skubal was from the Bay area and played HS ball in Arizona.
Don’t rule out the Giants and D-backs.
My guesses in descending order
1. Mets
2. Dodgers
3. Yankees
4. Giants
5. Tigers
6. Red Sox (lefties at Fenway???)
7. Padres
8. Phillies
9. D-backs
10. Rangers
For its and giggles, would a package of Dominguez or Spencer Jones, Cam Schlittler, Ben Hess or Carlos Lagrange plus another low level prospect. I’m not too familiar with the Tigers depth chart and I’m not saying the Yanks should do it but what do you think of the package? Can Schlittler can immediately walk into the rotation. Hess or Lagrange are likely for late 2026 or 2027. Dominguez is ready now and Jones will likely be ready mid-season.
As a Tiger fan I’d definitely listen. I doubt the Yankees would give up that much cheap, controllable talent for 1 year of Skubal.
If Skubal ends up on the open market and a team who can afford him bids my guess is they’ll already be committed to having Skubal for the long haul.
Maybe any trade proposal comes with a hook of a 72 hour extension window? It’s been a while since I remember one of those taking place but who knows.
While the Yankees most probably will have to make a decision regarding keeping Dominguez or trading him in a package for either a starter or stud receiver, Cam isn’t going anywhere….why in the world would you include a guy who routinely touches `100 is young, home grown and has the attitude defining that he can definitely pitch in New York……
Those players would get the discussions started. Adding Skubal to a fully heathy Yankees rotation could land them a World Series Championship.
He wants to live someplace nice, instead of his double wide on 8 mile. Callie or the ESPN nor’east Twins. He gone!
He’ll get $400 million – followed by Tommy John and he’ll be effective for half the contract. Only a small group of teams can survive LT pitcher contracts.
@tuck 2: Mets perfectly fit your description in terms of desperation (more the owner than POBO). Detroit will have got the phenomenal years. We’ve all seen this movie with SP’s-which is why Scherzer contract stood out as a rare exception of remaining an ace. Maybe Boras will wax poetic about that ex-Tiger client comp to him.
If Detroits offer AFTER 2024 was really under $100 mil, they’re toast. Disrespectful lowball.
Remember that offer included 2 years of arbitration. He got around $10 million last year in the 1st arb year and it looks like around $18-20 coming in this, the 2nd arb year. Tigers were hoping that extra $25 million over arb projections might get his attention. The $100 million only covered 2 years of free agency. Skubal would’ve been back on the market at 32. Obviously, it was wise not to take it, but I can’t criticize the Tigers for trying.
As a Tigers fan, I believe it’s in their best interest to make him available to all teams and take the best offer while they can get something of great value. The Mets and Yankees, as well as the Phillies, Dodgers and Red Sox will no doubt cave in and give the Tigers at least 3 top prospects and a major league ready player to choose from. No pitcher is worth 400 million, especially one who has already had 2 major arm surgeries. (one in college and one at pro level ) But the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers are dumb enough to spend that kind of money, so go ahead and let them.
No way the Tigers extend Skubal. The Tigers are complaining about paying Baez and he only gets $22 mil a year. They have been shopping at the discount bin for years and they have one of the lowest payrolls in the league.
For the past 2+ years they have had the same wish-list… a 3B, starting pitching and a right handed bat. They go into this offseason with the same needs. Sure, they spent a bunch of money over the years, but they couldn’t fill any of those holes. No way they do it his year either.
Scottie Harris doesn’t believe in windows. He wants the team to be decent but won’t invest in “going for it”. If he wanted to win now, he would bolster the roster with some stars. He won’t do that though. He’s content with being a decent team that isn’t quite good enough.
Tigers are #20 in payroll.
spotrac.com/mlb/payroll
Mark Teixeira from the Rangers to the Braves was also a very good returne:
Rangers acquired several key prospects who became crucial to their success, including shortstop Elvis Andrus, pitcher Matt Harrison, and reliever Neftali Feliz, who all contributed to the team’s back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011. and made the All Star team. The Braves also received Jarrod Saltalamacchia as part of the deal.
I heard someone on Detroit radio speculating that Borris has it worked out with the Tigers front office to protect his client. Skubal rarely goes over 100 pitches or more than 6 innings. Would explain why he was pulled after 6 and 99 pitches in a game 5 ALDS after striking out Raleigh on a 101 mph fastball. Hader did the same thing with Milwaukee after they beat him in arbitration. If that is the case, I would trade Skubal.Call me old school but I’m sick of these players and agents putting me over team.
Same thing with Scherrfzer in his last year im Detroit before free agency
Scherzer
If the Tigers trade Skubal, the best return will probably be prospects. Most teams trading for a Skubal rental wants to go for the World Series that year. They’re not going to want their team to depleted of MLB-ready talent.
LA is an exception, I guess. They could afford to give up a mix of prospects and MLB talent and still contend. If they needed to, they could just back-fill openings by signing more FA’s.
Probably two of the best back to back seasons by a SP since 2021 season.
He’s great but he only affects about 35 games out of 162. is that worth ridiculous money and years with possible injury risks or declines later in contract. Bottom line, if you can’t pay him trade him when his haul is the highest.
This ALCS is off the hook!
Don’t see anyone beating the LAD. Ohtani was created in a lab.
Come on Jed Hoyer… empty out the farm system for Skubal, but insist on a 72-hour negotiating period to sign him long term before the trade is consumated.
72 hours will not work. Skubal is going all free agent. All in. The Tigers are going to get 100% of Skubal in 2026. Then he gone. He stay gone.
They might be better off going for Gallen Valdez or Suarez in free agency this winter and pair one of them with Skubal, Mize, Flaherty and Olson/Madden in 2026. That would be top rotation.
Then use left over cash to buy Bichette and plug him at 2nd. Or, maybe, even Bregman at 3B. Might go past $400 million.
The Tigers could get 2 huge free agents for the cost of one Skubal.
Heck, for $400 million, the Tigers could get 2 of Valdez, Gallen and Suarez.
Skubal stays. If I am the Tigers I offer 348/8 deal with 40 million deferred which would start in 2027. So if you tack on the 17.5 million to it you are looking at 365.5/9 year deal.
That would get Boras attention and might get it done. I think there is a decent possibility the 27 season is lost since the owners look like they want to break the union.
Go make a deal Hoyer that dude is money
The Tigers have to pay this guy or he will walk. He’s the best lefty in the world and I fully expect him to cash in. Any team he goes to will compete because of him so I can’t see him taking a discount for any reason.
If Skubal stays with the Tigers through the 2026 season, could see the Giants and Mets being the frontrunners (and possibly the BoSox and Cubbies) to sign him as a FA. Getting traded in the offseason or early in the 2026 season pre-trading deadline is a different kettle of fish. Giants don’t have anyone that jumps out and the Mets won’t want to get rid of any of their young pitching that debuted in 2025. BoSox have plenty of outfielders as do the Cubbies. Astros and/or the Rangers likely interested as well.
This story and the contract numbers offered to Skubal by the Tigers are very misleading.
Tigers offer was made before the Crotchet extension offer and before Skubal won Cy Young #1.
At the time, it was a competitive offer for similar in house extensions given to other starters.
Skubal and his agent bet that his performance would get much better.
They won that bet.
It could have gone the other way regression and/ or injuries.
You miss my points.
Clients hire Boras to cash in and to set new contract records.
Boras is also on MLB player committees.
Boras drives the negotiations for his Clients.
If players do not agree with Boras’s negotiating tactics, then they either don’t hire him or they fire him and sign with another agent.