MLBTR Podcast: The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Tarik Skubal winning his arbitration hearing against the Tigers (1:30)
- The Tigers loading up the rotation by signing Framber Valdez and also Justin Verlander but losing Reese Olson for the year (13:25)
- The six-player trade between the Red Sox and Brewers headlined by Caleb Durbin and Kyle Harrison, with Milwaukee then signing Luis Rengifo (24:15)
- The Orioles signing Chris Bassitt and losing Jackson Holliday to injury (35:35)
- The Diamondbacks signing Zac Gallen and potentially losing Corbin Carroll to the injured list (44:30)
- The Braves losing Spencer Schwellenbach and maybe Hurston Waldrep while showing little urgency about bolstering the rotation (52:20)
- Tony Clark stepping down as MLBPA executive director, recorded as the news was still trickling out (59:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Twins Front Office Shake-Up, The Brendan Donovan Trade, Eugenio Suarez, And More! – listen here
- Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore – listen here
- What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images
Tarik Skubal Wins Arbitration Hearing
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has won his arbitration hearing against the team, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll be paid a record-shattering $32MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and, in doing so, radically alter subsequent arbitration earnings for top-tier starting pitchers with five-plus years of big league service. The Tigers had submitted a $19MM figure, which was more in line with traditional arbitration earnings for elite starters. Skubal is represented by the Boras Corporation.
It’s a landmark decision that narrowly tops Juan Soto‘s record $31MM salary (the most ever for an arb-eligible player) and absolutely shatters David Price‘s longstanding record for arbitration-eligible pitchers. Coincidentally enough, Price was also a Tiger when he set that record, though the two sides came to terms without requiring a hearing; he settled on a $19.75MM salary for the 2015 season — a record that stood for more than a decade.
Skubal’s case was the most fascinating arbitration case in history. He and agent Scott Boras leveraged a clause in the CBA that allows players with five-plus years of major league service time to compare themselves not to prior arbitration precedents but to open-market prices for free agents. We haven’t seen a player try to break the conventional arbitration system in this way despite that clause’s presence, but Skubal’s consecutive Cy Young Award wins in the American League emboldened his camp to shoot for the moon.
It bears emphasizing that this clause pertains to players entering their final season of club control. For instance, while Paul Skenes will very likely file for a record salary for a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher next offseason, he’s not going to submit a $30MM+ figure. He’d have no chance of winning. Rather, Skenes and his camp will likely look to move the needle forward beyond the current record for a first-time-eligible pitcher: Dallas Keuchel‘s $7.25MM salary on the heels of his own AL Cy Young win back in the 2015-16 offseason.
Many onlookers marvel at the Tigers offering what appears to be a (relatively) low $19MM salary for Skubal’s final season. There’s a sentiment among fans that Detroit should have submitted a figure in the mid-20s, but that’s not how teams approach arbitration. Clubs generally fight tooth and nail to keep arb prices down — hence hearings over gaps of $200K or so every winter — because arbitration has historically been based entirely on past comparables within the same service class as the player in question. It’s not realistic to think any team would have willingly offered to move the needle for a service class forward by some $5-6MM.
The Tigers’ $19MM submission for Skubal already represented a raise of 87% over Skubal’s $10.15MM salary in 2025. On a percentage basis, that’s actually more than double the raise Price received; he’d earned $14MM in 2014 before a $5.75MM (41%) raise heading into 2015. Had Detroit offered Skubal a salary of $25MM, for instance, that would’ve represented a mammoth 146% raise over the prior year’s salary. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to say that perhaps they should have done so, but that hasn’t been the modus operandi of any team in arbitration at any point over the years.
Similarly, it hasn’t been the M.O. for any player or the union to try to leverage that until-now obscure CBA clause in an effort to entirely upend the arbitration system as we know it. Doing so represented a risk for Skubal and Boras; the two could surely have taken a more conservative approach, filing for a $21-22MM salary that looked to more incrementally advance the market for stars (pitchers, specifically) in arbitration. Instead, they gambled on Skubal’s historic pair of seasons and were rewarded with a historic ruling. Skubal’s $32MM victory will now be fair game to be cited as a potential comp for stars at any point moving forward — at least those with “special accomplishments,” as laid out in the CBA.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes points out that given that context, this case boiled down as much to the league versus the union as it did the Tigers versus Boras. Passan reports that Skubal’s camp went so far as to enlist MLBPA deputy director Bruce Meyer, which speaks to the long-term importance of this specific case. (It’s standard for the MLBPA to aid agencies in preparing for and arguing arbitration cases, though not necessarily with one of the union’s top executives.) Skubal’s case was so unique and his accomplishments so “special” (again, using CBA terminology) that he compared himself to starting pitchers who topped $40MM salaries in free agency, Passan adds.
Turning to the more immediate future, the arbiters’ ruling has major payroll implications for Detroit. The Tigers agreed to a three-year, $115MM contract with Framber Valdez just last night and will now pay Skubal $13MM more than they would have if the panel had ruled in their favor. In a matter of 24 hours, their payroll went from a plausible $164MM or to something in the range of $215MM, depending on how Valdez’s contract breaks down on an annual basis and how much deferred money the contract contains — all of which is yet unclear.
One would imagine that had the Tigers won yesterday’s hearing, there might have been some extra wiggle room in the payroll for further late additions to the roster. Perhaps that’s still the case, but the extra $13MM, coupled with the massive Valdez deal, thrusts Detroit into franchise-record payroll territory and could mean the heavy lifting is largely finished.
Fans from other clubs will surely hope that Skubal’s arbitration win opens the door for a potential trade. That’s overwhelmingly unlikely to be the case. Tigers brass has declined to wholly declare Skubal off limits at any point this winter but has done so more as a matter of principle than due to an actual willingness to move him. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has declined to speak in absolutes regarding Skubal but has also done so with regard to virtually all other roster matters when asked.
That “never say never” mentality has led to plenty of wishcasting from fans who’d love to see Skubal in their club’s jersey, just as it’s led to hopeful inquiries from rival teams throughout the league. To this point, there’s no indication that a Skubal trade was ever seriously considered; Harris & Co. have seemingly given other clubs the chance to present a comical offer that they simply can’t refuse, but no team has done so.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that the Tigers, after adding Valdez, had no intent to trade Skubal even if he won his case. The addition of Valdez gives Detroit an arguably overqualified “No. 2” starter to pair with Skubal atop a rotation that now makes them the unequivocal favorites in a perennially weak American League Central.
Valdez’s relatively short-term deal also ensures that Detroit will have a high-end starter in place for the 2027 season in the event that Skubal departs as a free agent. If the Tigers are able to re-sign him on the open market, they’ll return that pairing for at least the ’27 season, after which Valdez could opt out — thus dropping the Tigers back down to “only” one immense, top-of-the-market salary for a member of their rotation.
Skubal and his camp are surely celebrating today, as is the Players Association at large. Players are now 3-0 over teams in arbitration hearings this year, and Skubal’s landmark win will have ramifications for future arb-eligible players for literal decades to come — assuming the system, as it currently exists, remains in place that long. The Tigers, even though they were handed a $13MM defeat, have cause to celebrate as well. Their rotation — which also includes Reese Olson and another pair of impending free agents, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize — should be among the most formidable in the sport.
As for the rest of the American League Central — and owners around the game who now can look forward to heightened arb salaries for players with five-plus years of service — things may not be so rosy.
MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Cubs acquiring Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernández and Edgardo De Leon (1:55)
- The Cubs agreeing to a deal with Alex Bregman (13:10)
- The Red Sox coming up short on Bregman and where that leaves them now (27:35)
- The game of musical chairs with the remaining top free agents (35:40)
- The Tigers and Tarik Skubal going into arbitration $13MM apart (41:45)
- The Orioles and Ryan Mountcastle avoiding arbitration with a unique deal (57:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
- Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here
- The Mets Sign Jorge Polanco, And The Braves, Blue Jays And Royals Make Moves – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images
Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures
The Tigers did not reach agreement with two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on a deal to avoid arbitration this evening. They’re now likely headed for what would be the most significant hearing in memory. That’s due to an astronomical $13MM gap in the sides’ respective filing figures.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Skubal is seeking a $32MM salary, while the Tigers filed at $19MM. The sides are free to continue negotiations right up to the hearing time, but teams typically adopt a “file-and-trial” approach and cease talks on one-year deals after figures are exchanged. If it gets to a hearing, an arbitrator can only choose either Skubal’s number or the team’s. Arbitrators are not permitted to land on a middle ground, so the result would be very consequential.
If it gets to a hearing, Skubal will be shooting for the largest arbitration salary ever. That record is held by Juan Soto, who settled on a $31MM deal with the Yankees in his final year before free agency. Shohei Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a $30MM deal in his final year of arbitration eligibility. They’re the only two players to reach that benchmark. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed the loftiest deal in last winter’s class; he landed at $28.5MM.
While Skubal’s filing figure isn’t markedly above those of recent superstars, it would shatter the benchmark for pitchers. The arbitration process hasn’t rewarded high-end arms as handsomely as it does impact bats. In fact, no arb-eligible pitcher has commanded even $20MM. David Price still holds the record with a $19.75MM salary from back in 2015.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote about the potential for an historically significant hearing when examining Skubal’s arbitration case this morning. As Passan pointed out, the collective bargaining agreement allows players who are one year away from free agency to compare themselves not only to past arbitration precedents, but to free agents as well. There’s ample precedent for free agent pitchers commanding upwards of $30MM annually, with some late-career aces pulling more than $40MM per season on short-term deals. That provision hasn’t actually moved the market for arb-eligible pitchers forward to this point, however, and the aforementioned massive salaries for Soto, Ohtani and Guerrero were all agreed upon without a hearing.
The Tigers’ filing figure aligns with arbitration’s historical precedent against pitchers. It’s also much more aligned with the usual year-over-year escalating salaries associated with the process. Skubal received a $10.15MM salary last year. The largest yearly jump for a pitcher is held by Jacob deGrom, who earned a $9.6MM raise after winning his first career Cy Young in 2018. Detroit’s figure would give Skubal an $8.85MM boost after his second consecutive Cy Young award.
To a large extent, this serves as a test case for the arbitration process itself. That Price still holds the record for a pitcher shows how much the system has lagged when it comes to valuing arms (particularly in comparison to the escalating free agent prices for starters). Skubal and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are aiming to blow that wide open. That’d obviously be significant for the southpaw himself but would also go a long way toward raising the earning ceiling for future arms.
There’s no guarantee that this actually gets to a hearing. Player and team would have a lot of money at stake if it does, and they’d each avoid the unpredictability of relying on the arbitrators if they settle on a deal in the mid-$20MM range. However, this kind of situation is precisely why teams prefer the file-and-trial approach. That’s designed to prevent the player from filing well above their expected value to anchor future talks from a higher baseline. Refusing to continue negotiating after numbers are exchanged prevents that situation. If the player files very high, the club feels good about its chances of winning a lower than expected number at the hearing.
It all makes sense in theory, but the stakes of a potential hearing in this case are higher than any in team history. They’d need to operate for the next month or so with a $13MM range in their payroll projection, which could hinder short-term free agent or trade activity. Skubal is one year from free agency and trending towards the largest pitching contract ever. If the Tigers feel they have any chance to re-sign him, they may not want to run the risk of an inherently adversarial hearing.
There’d also be ramifications if they put him on the trade market — either before Opening Day or, far more likely, if they fall out of contention before the deadline. One year of Skubal would have immense trade value regardless of his salary, but he’d be much more appealing to other clubs on a $19MM sum than he would at $32MM.
Scott Harris: No “Untouchables” On Tigers Roster
Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris shared mostly generalities when speaking with the media on the first day of the Winter Meetings, reiterating that his club continues to look for starting and relief pitching, and wants “to try to find a way to improve our offense without blocking” some star position-player prospects in the minor league pipeline (i.e. Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark).
When asked about the persistent trade rumors surrounding Tarik Skubal, Harris unsurprisingly didn’t shed any light on whether or not the Tigers might be leaning towards keeping or dealing the star left-hander. What the executive did cover was his broad stance on trade discussions, and why he hasn’t outright stated that Skubal isn’t going anywhere before the pitcher is eligible for free agency next winter.
“I’ve been pretty clear since I’ve been here, I don’t believe in untouchables at any level,” Harris told The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen and other reporters. “So anyone in our organization, at any level. It’s not a commentary on Tarik specifically. Sort of a blanket team-building approach. I think I can’t do my job without listening. I can’t do my job without exploring anything that may or may not have legs. Some are maybe very likely moves, and some are going to be extremely unlikely. But you can’t actually fully vet those opportunities unless you are willing to listen. So that’s how we’re doing it.”
It’s a logical position for a PBO to take, since you never know when a team might emerge with an outlandish trade offer that is too good to pass up. Reports indicate that Skubal is unlikely to be dealt, both because the Tigers’ “asking prices are enormous” (as per ESPN’s Buster Olney) and because keeping Skubal atop the rotation obviously gives Detroit a much better chance of winning the World Series in 2026.
How the Tigers will build around Skubal in what might be his final year with the club remains to be seen. Detroit has been linked to such prominent free agent or trade targets as Alex Bregman, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Zac Gallen, Kenley Jansen, Pete Fairbanks, and Ketel Marte, though the team’s most significant new acquisition over the first month of the offseason is Drew Anderson‘s one-year contract. Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda are the only free agents to sign multi-year contracts over Harris’ three-plus years in change of the front office, with the two pitchers each signing for two years apiece. (In Flaherty’s case, he picked up a player option for that second year rather than test free agency again.)
While the Tigers have made some bigger pursuits like their bid for Bregman last offseason, Motown fans won’t be satisfied about the team’s direction or its willingness to spend big until the Tigers actually land a major target. As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal opined in a recent column, Harris’ cautious approach to trades or free agents doesn’t lend itself fully capitalizing on what might be a limited window of opportunity with Skubal on the roster. There’s still plenty of time this winter or at the trade deadline for Detroit to add more top-tier talent, though it remains to be seen how aggressive the Tigers will be in these pursuits.
Tigers GM: “We’re Going To Prioritize Pitching”
The Tigers have reached the postseason in consecutive seasons but still have plenty of work to do this offseason, with a number of key free agents reaching the open market. General manager Jeff Greenberg said at this week’s GM Meetings that the Tigers “are going to prioritize pitching” in the months ahead, even after Jack Flaherty‘s decision to exercise his $20MM player option filled one rotation spot next season (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Greenberg added that the Tigers are open to further rotation additions and “certainly” need to address their bullpen.
As things stand, Detroit’s rotation lines up with Flaherty joining two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and righties Casey Mize and Reese Olson. Options for the fifth spot that are already on the 40-man roster include Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long and Ty Madden. Righty Jaden Hamm, one of the organization’s top prospects, started 20 games in Double-A last year during his age-22 season and could push his way into the big league mix with a strong 2026 showing. Ballyhooed young righty Jackson Jobe could factor into the mix late in the season, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-June and thus can’t be counted upon for any meaningful innings next year.
It’s a talented group overall, but there are question marks throughout. Mize and Flaherty both had some struggles down the stretch in 2025. Olson’s season ended in late July after just 13 (excellent) starts, as a shoulder strain sent him to the shelf for the remainder of the season. If each of Skubal, Flaherty, Olson and Mize is healthy and in peak form, the Detroit rotation would be among the best in the sport, but a World Series hopeful can’t necessarily afford to bank on that — particularly not as Skubal enters his final season of club control.
In the bullpen, Detroit’s need is more acute. Deadline pickup Kyle Finnegan was brilliant during his two-plus months as a Tiger but is now a free agent. Relievers Tommy Kahnle, Rafael Montero and Paul Sewald are free agents as well. Meanwhile, 2024 bullpen standouts like Beau Brieske and Jason Foley dealt with significant injuries. Brieske’s ERA nearly doubled, from 3.59 in 2024 to 6.55 in 2025. He was limited to 22 MLB frames and another 10 in the minors, and he ended the season on the 60-day IL owing to a forearm strain. Foley didn’t pitch at all in the majors and only logged 6 2/3 (scoreless) innings in Triple-A before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in May.
Detroit still has some quality arms in the relief corps. Will Vest posted a third consecutive strong season. Brennan Hanifee doesn’t miss many bats but is a hard-throwing grounder specialist with plus command. Southpaw Tyler Holton was effective again, albeit not to the same extent as in 2024. Fellow lefty Brant Hurter excelled in a multi-inning role. They’ll all be back, as will Foley and Brieske, and all six of those arms have minor league options remaining, too.
As with the rotation, it’s not necessarily that the Tigers are lacking in raw talent — just that the incumbent names have question marks stemming from a combination of health issues and lesser results in 2025 (relative to their strong 2024 showings, anyhow). Given that Detroit liked Finnegan enough to acquire him at the deadline and then saw him exceed even the most optimistic expectations following his change of scenery (1.50 ERA, 34.8 K%, 6.1 BB%), it stands to reason that they’ll have interest in retaining him at the very least. Other prominent names on the relief market include Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Robert Suarez, Brad Keller, Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Helsley.
Detroit clearly has other needs, though one such need would be answered if Gleyber Torres accepts their $22.025MM qualifying offer. That’d lock a quality option in at second base. Shortstop, third base and at least one outfield spot still stand as fair questions even in that scenario, however, and president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke openly at his end-of-season press conference about wanting to cut down on his team’s swing-and-miss and improve the team’s contact. That has and will continue to lead to ongoing speculation about the Tigers revisiting last offseason’s pursuit of Alex Bregman, though there are myriad ways to go about achieving that goal if the team prefers to dedicate more resources to the pitching staff.
Currently, RosterResource projects the Tigers for a payroll just under $125MM. That’d jump to $147MM if Torres accepts his qualifying offer. That’s already higher than last year’s Opening Day mark, although by season’s end, after including deadline pickups, the Tigers had invested $155-160MM in the roster. They’ve also run payroll up to the $200MM range in the past, though that was back in 2016-17 under late owner Mike Ilitch. The Tigers haven’t returned to that level of spending under new owner Chris Ilitch (Mike’s son), though that’s at least partially due to the fact that much of his tenure as the team’s chairman has come during a rebuild. This offseason will serve as a good litmus test as to whether Chris Ilitch is comfortable investing as much into the team as his father was.
Of course, the source of intrigue surrounding Detroit’s pitching staff is Skubal’s future. It still seems overwhelmingly unlikely that he’ll be traded this offseason. Greenberg, as Harris has done previously, declined to speak about the possibility of a Skubal trade or extension when asked at this week’s meetings (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal, Petzold writes, acknowledged that he “loves the city of Detroit” and “wants to be a Tiger for a long time,” while in the same breath noting that any trade possibility is out of his control.
Meanwhile, agent Scott Boras held court with reporters yesterday for his annual GM Meetings media scrum. Asked about Skubal’s contract status, Boras merely stated: “Our point of view is we always listen. We’re prepared to listen to about anything that Chris or really Scott has to say. We’ll just see how it goes.”
Tarik Skubal Wins AL Cy Young Award
For a second straight season, Tarik Skubal is the American League Cy Young award winner. He beat out Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown, the other two finalists. Skubal received 26 of 30 first-place votes. The other four voters had him second behind Crochet, and those pitchers were 1-2 in some order on every ballot.
Skubal is the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Youngs since Jacob deGrom took the NL honors in 2018 and ’19. He’s the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to win the award twice. Skubal cemented himself as one of the two best pitchers on the planet by turning in a 2.21 earned run average across 31 starts. He recorded 241 strikeouts, 13 more than he did during last year’s award-winning season, and won a second straight ERA title.
The Tigers’ star southpaw was fourth in the AL in innings, second in strikeouts behind Crochet, and trailed only Logan Gilbert with a 32.2% strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings). Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference credited him the most Wins Above Replacement of any AL pitcher. He also had the lowest FIP (2.45) and SIERA (2.71). He tied Brown and Bryan Woo for second in the league with 21 quality starts, one behind Crochet.
Skubal is headed into his final season of arbitration control. With no progress on a long-term extension, there’ll surely be teams trying to pry him out of Detroit. It’s very difficult to imagine the Tigers trading their ace on the heels of two consecutive playoff appearances, though. He’ll likely be back as A.J. Hinch’s Opening Day starter and go for a third consecutive AL Cy Young while trying to get Detroit back to October.
It’s the first top three finish for both Crochet and Brown. The Red Sox could not have asked for more out of Crochet in his first season in Boston. He led the AL in strikeouts and innings pitched (205 1/3) while pitching to a 2.59 ERA over 32 starts. This was only Crochet’s second season as a starting pitcher and his first logging a full starter’s workload. The White Sox had eased him back in the second half of the ’24 campaign to not put too much stress on his arm after years working in relief. He demonstrated he’s capable of maintaining his stuff and ace level over a full season with the Red Sox, who signed him through the 2031 season in April.
Brown’s top three placement earned the Astros an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft under the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Houston’s ace turned in a 2.43 ERA across 31 starts. He struck out a career-high 206 batters over 185 1/3 innings. This was Brown’s first time receiving any Cy Young votes. He’s entering arbitration and is under club control for another three seasons.
Voters unanimously had Skubal and Crochet as the AL’s best pitchers in some order. Brown was the consensus choice for third, receiving 24 of 30 third-place votes. The other six third-place nods went to Max Fried. Brown and Fried appeared on all but one ballot apiece. Woo finished comfortably in fifth. Carlos Rodón, Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, Trevor Rogers and Drew Rasmussen were the other pitchers to receive at least one vote.
Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images. Full vote tally available via BBWAA.
MLBTR Podcast: The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Blue Jays making it to the World Series and how being a baseball writer can dull your fandom (1:20)
- The Phillies reportedly planning to move on from Nick Castellanos (7:10)
- The Tigers making an uninspiring extension offer to Tarik Skubal a year ago (15:30)
- The Giants potentially hiring Tony Vitello to be their new manager (27:50)
- The Brewers reportedly willing to listen to offers on Freddy Peralta (35:20)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What positions do the Astros need to target to make it back to the postseason? (41:55)
- Do the Brewers need to change their contact-over-power approach? (45:20)
- Will Kyle Tucker‘s injuries significantly impact his payday? (47:10)
- Should the Padres try to sign J.T. Realmuto or stick with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano? (49:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
- Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
- Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Mets Expected To Show Interest In Tarik Skubal
Ahead of his final year under team control, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has gotten plenty of attention as fans and clubs alike have begun to turn their attention towards the offseason. Detroit’s reported extension offer of less than $100MM over four years last offseason does not inspire confidence that the club will be able to lock him up long-term, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer about Skubal’s future during his end-of-season press conference this past week. It’s impossible to say at this point whether Detroit would consider trading their ace this winter, but Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that the Mets are expected to be involved in that market if Skubal were to be made available.
That’s not exactly a surprise. The Mets had perhaps the most disappointing season in baseball this year given that they missed the postseason during Juan Soto‘s first season in Queens after signing a $765MM deal last winter. Much of that disappointment can be chalked up to a lackluster rotation that crumbled down the stretch and posted a 5.09 ERA after July 1 that was good for just 25th in the majors. Injuries and underperformance from virtually every established arm in the rotation mix besides Clay Holmes and David Peterson left New York on the outside looking in this postseason, and while youngsters like Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong offer some optimism for the future, it would be understandable for the Mets to seek more certainty this winter than they can offer.
When it comes to starting pitching, there might be no pitcher this side of Paul Skenes who offers more certainty than Skubal. He’s pitched to a 2.30 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate across 387 2/3 innings of work over the past two seasons. That work has already won him one Cy Young award and is likely to win him a second next month. He’s also managed to take things up a notch when the lights are brightest and dominate in the postseason, with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 37.8% strikeout rate across six playoff starts. Of the 33 starting pitchers with at least 20 postseason innings over the past five years, Skubal boasts the highest strikeout rate, best SIERA, and the fifth-lowest ERA.
Skubal’s resume speaks for itself, and in a free agent market that looks relatively soft on starting pitching options he figures to be all the more attractive. With that being said, there are some reasons to think the Mets might not go all-in for Skubal even if the Tigers do make him available. The lefty is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency rather than sign extensions. That would seem to make it unlikely that the Mets (or any other acquiring club) would be able to keep Skubal long-term after trading for him unless they outbid the field next winter.
New York certainly has the financial wherewithal to do that, but (as the Soto signing last winter showed) they could also look to do so without surrendering what figures to be a massive prospect package to acquire his final year of team control. Sammon suggests that the Mets would be open to considering a deal involving any player besides McLean, who posted a 2.06 ERA in eight starts this year and is viewed as a potential ace in his own right. Sammon speculates that the Tigers could ask for a package along the lines of Tong and Sproat plus top infield prospect Jett Williams in exchange for Skubal’s services.
It should be highlighted that Sammon’s suggested package is purely speculative, but it’s still worth noting that it would be quite out of character for president of baseball operations David Stearns to surrender so much young talent for a one-year rental. That willingness to prioritize the farm system is something that he seemingly has backing from ownership on, given previous comments by Steve Cohen about the club’s current level of spending being unsustainable in the long-term and a desire to support massive deals for players like Soto and Francisco Lindor with young, homegrown talent.
The other side of that conversation is the reality that if the Mets are going to improve their rotation headed into next year, they’ll need to spend either prospect capital or more dollars. Even so, those other avenues to improving could be preferable to giving up a massive package to land Skubal. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to be available in trade this winter, and Sammon floats him as an example of a pitcher who likely could be had for a lower prospect cost than Skubal. The Mets have been unafraid of rolling the dice on pitchers with question marks in the past during free agency, and the upside a player like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, or Ranger Suarez could offer is immense.
Those alternative options may end up being necessary to pursue even if the Mets decide to pursue Skubal. There’s no guarantees the Tigers will make him available at all, and even if they do New York would hardly be the only suitor for his services. Last offseason’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet should serve as a reminder that the Mets aren’t as able to easily outbid the competition on the trade market as they are in free agency; the Red Sox and Craig Breslow were able to offer a massive package for Crochet that few teams in the sport would have been able to match, and even the improved farm system Stearns finds himself with this winter isn’t impossible to outbid with McLean likely off the table.
Latest On Tigers, Tarik Skubal
October 17th: Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that Detroit’s offer after 2024 was for four years and less than $100MM.
October 16th: The Tigers are now down to their final season of control over the American League’s best pitcher. Tarik Skubal is entering his last year of arbitration and trending towards the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote this evening that Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM. Heyman reports that Detroit’s extension offer last offseason was shy of the $170MM which Garrett Crochet received from the Red Sox in April. Heyman specifies that the Tigers’ offer came before Crochet’s extension.
Much will be made of the more than $200MM gap between those two numbers, but that doesn’t consider the timing of Detroit’s offer. The front office certainly wouldn’t be under any illusions now that a sub-$200MM proposal would be close. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years from free agency and before the Crochet precedent.
It wasn’t clear last offseason that Crochet would command as strong a deal as he did. That contract was nearly $50MM above the previous top extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time (Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from 2019). The Red Sox certainly don’t have any regrets after Crochet’s dominant ’25 season, but that deal pushed the extension market dramatically forward. While it’s not clear precisely what Detroit had offered, it’s safe to presume it was north of the deGrom extension and would have been a record within his service class before the Crochet signing.
Skubal bet on himself and is in position to truly cash in as a result. He’s going to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.21 ERA with 241 strikeouts across 31 starts. He is two and a half seasons removed from the flexor surgery that ended his 2022 campaign. Most importantly, he’s now 12 months away from the open market.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto received the largest guarantee for a pitcher in MLB history when he signed with the Dodgers for $325MM. That was in large part due to his unusual circumstances coming over from Japan. He was an established ace in NPB and widely viewed as one of the two best pitchers (alongside Paul Skenes) who had yet to pitch in MLB at the time. Yamamoto came over before his age-25 season — earlier than any MLB ace could accrue the necessary six years of service time to hit free agency. He commanded a 12-year deal that was three years longer than any other pitching contract.
Among domestic free agent pitchers, Gerrit Cole has the record on his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees. Cole had yet to win a Cy Young but was coming off two straight top five finishes. He hit the market at age 29, while Skubal is on track to become a free agent at 30. Cole’s deal is six years old, so there’ll surely be an adjustment for inflation.
Cole’s $36MM average annual value was a record for a pitcher at the time. It’s now down to sixth — not including the Shohei Ohtani deal — on an annual basis. Late-career aces Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have each reached or topped $42MM on two- or three-year contracts. deGrom received $37MM annually on his five-year deal with Texas, while Blake Snell is making $36.4MM per season from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that drop the net present AAV to the $31-32MM range).
Those are all free agent precedents. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Skubal for a $17.8MM salary in his last arbitration year. Detroit wouldn’t get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason would come with the risk that he suffers an injury next year.
The Tigers have signed two contracts above $200MM: Prince Fielder’s free agent deal and Miguel Cabrera’s franchise-high $248MM extension. They’re each more than a decade old and came under the ownership tenure of the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, they’ve signed one nine-figure deal — the $140MM Javier Baez addition. Detroit has a relatively clean long-term payroll outlook aside from Baez’s $24MM salaries over the next two seasons. Jack Flaherty has a $20MM player option for 2026, while Colt Keith is signed for $4-5MM for the next four years.
[Related Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Skubal Trade?]
There’s enough payroll space that it’s conceivable the Tigers could make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If talks don’t gain traction, they’d need to decide whether to hold him for a final season or entertain trade possibilities. Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff berths and spent most of the ’25 season in control of the AL Central. It’s difficult to envision the Tigers being legitimate contenders in 2026 if they were to trade Skubal, even if they built a return around controllable big league talent. There’s a strong argument for simply holding Skubal in the hope that he carries them to a deep postseason run and making a qualifying offer next winter. If they struggle in the first half, he’d be a marquee deadline trade chip.
The alternative this offseason would be to follow the respective Red Sox, Padres and Astros precedents with Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Those teams all traded their superstar before his final season of arbitration. That went terribly for Boston. San Diego did very well on the Soto return and has won at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Houston’s trade of Tucker. They got a strong three-player return but came up shy of the postseason this year. Those teams were all navigating short-term payroll restrictions from ownership that shouldn’t be an issue for Detroit with how little money they have on the books.
President of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer when asked about Skubal’s future during the Tigers’ end-of-season presser on Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded … so I’m going to respond by not actually commenting on it,” Harris said. “Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.”