The 2025 season was another heartbreaker for the Mariners. Thankfully, they have a lot of good things in place for the future.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodríguez, CF: $162MM through 2034 (deal contains complicated option structure beginning after 2028)
- Cal Raleigh, C: $94MM through 2030 (deal includes 2031 vesting option)
- Luis Castillo, RHP: $45.5MM through 2027 (deal includes 2028 conditional club option/vesting option)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $11MM through 2026
- Víctor Robles, OF: $5MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2027)
Option Decisions
- IF Jorge Polanco has $6MM player option with $750K buyout
- Club has $7MM option for RHP Andrés Muñoz, plus two more club options for 2027-28
- Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
2026 guarantees (assuming Polanco and Garver become free agents): $76.5MM
Total future commitments: $326.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
- Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
- Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
- Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
- George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
- Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
- Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
- Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
- Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM
- Jackson Kowar (2.139): $800K
Non-tender candidates: Thornton, Saucedo, Raley, Santos, Kowar
Free Agents
In many ways, it was a fantastic season for the Mariners. They got a historic performance from catcher Cal Raleigh. They won the American League West for the first time since 2001 and made it to the ALCS for the first time since that same season.
But the dream ended there. It seemed they were on the cusp of their first World Series appearance when they went up 2-0 on the Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Jays tied the series up 2-2 but the Mariners managed to win Game 5, putting them one victory away. Seattle lost Game 6 but had a 3-1 lead in Game 7, until George Springer's home run put the Jays over the top.
So often in recent history, the Mariners have been a strong team but not quite strong enough. In 2021, they finished two games back of a playoff spot. They made it to the playoffs in 2022 and survived the Wild Card round, before getting swept out of the ALDS in agonizing fashion. The third game went 18 innings with the Mariners unable to score, losing 1-0 to the division-rival Astros. In both 2023 and 2024, they missed the playoffs by a single game. In a sense, 2025 was a step forward, but it was yet another case of getting so close that the final blow was all the more crushing.
Though the pain is fresh for many fans, there's a lot to feel good about in the future. The division is wide open. The Angels haven't been good in years. The A's are on the rise but still have lots of question marks. The Astros and Rangers have some veteran talent but are starting to feel a bit old and creaky, with both clubs facing budget crunches. The Seattle roster, meanwhile, is loaded with talent. A few guys are set to depart via free agency but the M's have payroll space and one of the best farm systems in baseball.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Some AAAA players took important at-bats for the Mariners in the recent postseason.
Raley had an awful, injury marred season. But I can’t see non-tendering him. In 2023 he produced 2.7 WAR with 19 HR and 14 SB. In 2024 it was 3.2 WAR with 22 HR and 11 SB. To put that in perspective, Josh Naylor just had his best season, 3.1 WAR, he’s only beem over 2 WAR one other time (2023, 2.3 WAR).. Raley is projected to get $1.8 million in his first year of arbitration, with two more years of team control. Naylor is going to cost $20 million or more per year, for three or four years. Given how little he’ll cost, the Ms can afford both and giving up on a $1.8 million Raley seems an overreaction.
To me, the big question is Raley’s back. If that’s a chronic thing like back problems tend to be, and I am typing this with a sore lower back, it might make sense to cut bait. The M’s have the medicals, not us
I can easily see Raley getting traded or non-tendered. An injury-prone platoon bat that will earn nearly 2 million? They have a better, cheaper version in Canzone.
Seattle’s going to be really LHH-heavy fairly soon. There really isn’t a need for Raley.
I was thinking they’d only tender as Naylor insurance if he decides to go elsewhere
Raley’s positional flexibility (can cover all 3 OF spots and 1B) is pretty valuable as a $1.8M bench piece.
I do think a lot of teams would happily trade for him as well. He’d be a good fit for the Royals, Reds, Pirates, Orioles, Rays and Guardians. He could also make sense on the Yankees, Dodgers and Giants. He’d not bring back a ton (maybe around a club’s #10 prospect or middle relief pitcher), but $1.8M salary with two more team control years is nothing to give away.
I don’t think Raley fits very well on the O’s. We’d need a right hander for the OF and I don’t think Raley is a serious CF option.
Raley doesn’t have to be a full time player at any one spot.
In the OF, he is arguably better than O’Neil (and O’Neil is likely to miss time and/or need DH days) and would have a higher floor than Jackson and Beavers.
In the IF, he provides a backup option to Mayo at 1B.
The Orioles should spend and get a Bellinger or Grisham, but if they stay cheap getting a Raley helps give them depth.
Robles says hello. Better defender, one year removed from a huge season.
They don’t need Raley. But I have no idea if another team would trade for him. Probably more likely to be non-tendered.
I don’t think Bellinger or Grisham work in Baltimore at all unless you’re trading Cowser away.
Beavers, Holliday, Gunnar, Basallo, Cowser are all lefties. O’s are terrible against lefties. O’Neill was brought in to hit them. He obviously didn’t do anything.
Canzone, Robles and Raley can all easily co-exist. If they are all performing and healthy and you have to bench one, that is a great problem to have.
In any case, I currently see Robles as the RF and Canzone leading the DH rotation with Raley as the 4th OFer/Backup 1B.
If they bring back Polanco and Naylor (or other 1B/DH options), then they could look to trade Raley at that point. However, they should be happy to hold on as a fallback option and cheap bench player in the interim.
Yeah, I disagree.
Robles was tearing it up until he got hurt. I don’t think he was very comfortable with his injury when he came back. Didn’t seem to make the spectacular catches he was making.
This next season I look to see him bounce all the way back and have a great year. He should be at 100% and ready to rock. Hopefully no roll into a net again. While it was a spectacular catch would rather he be healthy all year than make an out early in the season.
@Bronxlou. Totally agree on Raley. I would not give up on Santos at that price either. Cannot stay healthy worth a lick but should give that arm one more attempt.
No chance the Mariners give up on Cole Young this quickly. Polanco may still be in play, especially for a role similar to 2025, but I think the Mariners go into 2026 with Cole at 2B and Williamson at 3B and Emerson and Arroyo waiting in the wings at AAA if any of them struggle. Prospects can take time to figure out major league pitching, fortunately the Mariners have quantity of prospects (not just quality) and can sub out when needed.
They cant have two black holes in the infield all season long. Williamson and Young will need to earn their spots with major league caliber play.
Way more excited about Emerson and Arroyo. Williamson isn’t a long term piece for this club, IMO. Young is much more likely to stick. I dont think Emerson or Arroyo will make an impact til ’27 but I hope I’m wrong!
Williamson hit great in AAA after being sent back down. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for major power, but I don’t think his slugging remains that low again. I think he has real major league potential. And Young all the more. But again, with Emerson and Arroyo waiting behind, they can afford the risk. All the more if Polanco re-signs.
Williamson has better stats than Edgar Martinez at this stage of their careers. I expect his power to improve. He makes good contact. His defense is already Gold Glove caliber. The will give him ever opportunity at 3B.
You did not just compare Williamson to Edgar, they are polar opposites at 3rd base
We don’t need Williamson to hit HRs we need him to drag out long ABs. Then get on base. He can hit in the 8-9 spot and get on for the top of the rotation. He can be one of the slap hitters that hits singles and doubles. Get on base so we can put up crooked numbers.
goodvibes, I agree with the two black holes. Both Young and Williamson had dropoffs during the second half of the season.
The league may have adjusted to them. Cole Young had a second half ..556 OPS.
Did you notice who they trusted at 2B during the ALCS?
Williamson has 0 pop so I don’t know why you’d expect that to improve. Glove is legit but he’ll have to get his batting average/walks up to play everyday. Would surprise me if even hits 10 hrs in a year. Hasn’t as a pro. Hits a lot of balls on the ground and doesn’t hit the ball hard.
Max EV over 110; 40.5 HardHit%
He does hit the ball hard. The problem has been quality of contact, but as themarinersfanatic noted, he may have straightened things out last year in Tacoma.
They didn’t choose the 21-year-old rookie for the postseason roster (because the plan was to play Polanco at 2B every day, and he had been slumping).
Then, they DH’ed Polanco, because the Robles/Canzone platoon was stinking up the joint.
At that point, they only had Rivas on the bench (because Rivas was a much better defensive replacement at SS if needed, in addition to playing a good 2b and 3b. Young doesn’t have the arm to play 3b at all.)
It wasn’t really an endorsement of Rivas over Young.
The fact that Rivas was on the roster and was starting before the RF issue, and Young was left off the roster, is absolutely telling who was ahead in pecking order.
That may change after spring, but Rivas is clearly ahead of Young at the moment.
Worth noting, Young wasn’t sent down in September when they started using Polanco at second. He never got the chance to work on things in Tacoma. I still think he’ll have a shot at second for opening day, but it seems more likely he’ll start the season in AAA.
If Polo’s not back, Cole Young’s in the opening day line up. The M’s won’t start Rivas.
Nothing is definitive, especially for a rookie that struggled immensely over the last 6-7 weeks of the season.
Whaddya mean? They started Rivas for the entire Postseason.
Priority #1 is an expensive high end 1B or DH. If the Mariners fail to land one of Naylor, Alonso, Murakami or Schwarber or facilitate a deal for Contreras the offseason will be a failure. The difference having Naylor as a steady 4 spot hitter was massive.
After that, they can be more opportunistic given they have decent in-house options at RF (Robles/Raley), 2B (Young/Rivas/Bliss), 3B (Williamson/Emerson) and DH (Canzone/Ford). However, adding one more high certainty bat would greatly extend the lineup (e.g. Brandon Donovan, CJ Abrams, Steven Kwan, Jarren Duran).
On the pitching side, barring a Castillo trade, the only moves needed are bringing in a left-handed reliever and some more optionable relief pitchers. I would be interested in Drew Pomeranz or Justin Wilson.
How about Danny Coulombe as a LH in the bullpen? He is a FA…
He is a decent option. I prefer someone who throws a bit harder, but we just need another option to replace Ferguson.
I really hope the Mariners can reach the World Series next year.
Yeah, and I really hope management steps up. Now would be a great time to reinvest some of those playoff profits and at least take a shot at becoming a perennial playoff threat for the next couple of years.
The starters have been a strength for this team, in large part because they’ve been extraordinarily healthy. Their top 7 starters combined for 159 starts in 2025, and their top 6 starters combined for 161 starts in 2024. By way of contrast, the Astros had 11 different pitchers make at least 6 starts in 2025, If that run of health doesn’t continue for the Mariners, they could face trouble. As the author states, “the depth options aren’t amazing.”.
The thing is though, the narrative that Seattle has great pitching is vastly overstated.
The home and road splits for all Seattle starters are pretty dramatic. Over the last 3 seasons, they all have ERA’s more than a run higher on the road other than Logan Gilbert, who has 0.93 higher ERA on the road.
Home – Road
Luis Castillo
2.95 – 4.16
Logan Gilbert
2.99 – 3.92
George Kirby
3.01 – 4.21
Bryce Miller
3.34 – 4.77
Brian Woo
2.62 – 3.71
Emerson Hancock
4.17 – 5.63
Logan Evans (just this season)
3.29 – 5.36
Basically, we should be looking at Seattle pitching the same way we look at Colorado hitters. The road numbers are a better barometer for where they really are. Seattle’s best pitcher is Brian Woo with a 3.71 ERA. This is a non-special rotation.
This is only valuable if you show us that pitchers in general perform the same on the road as vs at home. Otherwise you didn’t find something in Seattle you found an obvious fact that pitchers thrive with routine and home cooking.
Bassitt home 2.71 road 5.47
I looked at a handful of the AL’s best, Gausman, Crochet, Rodon, Fried and Skubal. All had relatively similar home to road numbers other then Fried. But even Fried’s road numbers were better than what Seattle has.
Basically, most good pitchers don’t need to rely on home cooking to be good.
Bassitt is a perfect example. He’s what Seattle’s rotation is. A bunch of somewhat mediocre, non-special pitchers.
Adding on to that, anyone that Started more than 25 games for the Red Sox (Crochet, Giolito, Bello) is 0.50ish better away from Fenway than at Fenway.
Seattle being a pitcher’s park and Fenway being a hitter’s park isn’t breaking news.
Bryan Woo is definitely a very good pitcher. Kirby and Gilbert are solid #3 types. Obviously helps being in Seattle but they have guys. No real ML depth behind the starting 5 is the only thing.
Anderson and Cjintje might change that this year though. I wouldn’t be concerned about the pitching.
Yes, we should be looking at Seattle pitching the same way we look at Colorado hitters:
Colorado hitters, after they leave, tend to produce stats halfway between their home and road stats. Playing in an extreme park actually hurts the players who best take advantage of it on the road.
So, for example, Woo’s numbers above are the equivalent of a 3.2 ERA in a neutral park, not a 3.7. Gilbert’s are the equivalent of just under 3.5.
In some way, throwing Bazardo in the 8th needs to be addressed. That one decision literally ended a season. That is a fire-able offense, full stop. If it was Wilson, or an analytics guy, or whoever, they need to go. Unacceptable.
I think J.P. Crawford’ bunt was even worse.
The problem wasn’t who was pitching, it’s that they even pitched to Springer.
There was one out, first base was open, and Lukes was following Springer with a GB% north of 60 in the postseason.
I expect a busy off season. I think the owners will give Jerry and Justin more payroll flexibility. Trades should bring in another big bat and some pitching. We have the farm system and teams are anxious to make a deal for those controllable prospects.
Getting so close to the World Series, I think ownership give Jerry more financial freedom to get back to the ALCS next season.
They better resign Naylor – He seemed to be the most clutch player they had during playoffs
I would hope the Ms would resign Naylor (4/80) and Polanco (2/25), pursue Okamoto to play third and replace Ferguson with Drew Pomeranz or Andrew Chafin. If a Castillo trade can be made then look to acquire Freddy Peralta. They need to build on this year’s momentum.
Polanco is going to cost more than 2/25.
Naylor would be my #1 FA target. He’s just a great fit and probably wouldn’t break the bank. We also don’t have good internal options at 1B. I would pass on Polanco & Geno. They would cost too much and have a little more risk attached. I’m not 100% sold on any of our internal options at 2B & 3B (at least for 2026) but chances are that at least one will be good so I’m okay with leaving a spot open.
For Starting Pitchers, we’ll have a few more #5 starter options in the minors with Anderson, Cijntje, & possibly Sloan joining Hancock & Evans. With Castillo’s no-trade clause going away, I expect they’ll be offering him to everyone that calls.
I would love to prioritize defense more but other than Williamson, our young guys are mostly considered average defenders from what I’ve heard.
They’ll need to bring in another arm if they deal Castillo. At least a Quintana type. They didn’t get bit nearly as hard as other teams with SP injuries but I wouldn’t want to count on Emerson Hancock starting any more games
They have Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans , Kade Anderson, Cjintge all waiting for a shot
They should all see the majors next year and be serviceable
Shedding 48 million for the next 2 years is too big an incentive to trade Castillo
One would think that Polanco, Naylor and Saurez will take a pay cut to play for a team that was literally outs away from the World Series.
Trade Castillo, jp
And
Sign Naylor, polo, geno
Emerson to SS
This is not breaking news but Geno couldn’t hit at Safeco field and he can’t hit at TMobile either. He would have to take a huge pay cut for me to even consider him.
The M’s can expect a pretty big boast in attendance the next two years. Usually gate attendance goes up about 5,000 per game. That has been the pattern for mid market teams that make the playoffs. The owners also get a 40% share of the playoff revenues.. They don’t need the money and probably don’t want it because it would all go in taxes anyway They are in the 37% tax bracket.
It will be interesting to see how they treat their windfall. .After the 2022 playoff appearance the value of the franchise went up $500M. I would expect similar results this time.
Trade Castillo and Randy. And we have plenty of money to make a splash. Jerry also said this years level was a starting point, so the should go 175-180 easily. If you trade those two – even for zero return – you can get better as you’d have anywhere from 80-100m to spend. $30m AAV to Tucker, $20m AAV to Naylor, and you still have 30-50m to spend. Go all in. Go win the damn thing!
A few months ago Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone was a hot commodity as a power hitting 1B. They rushed him to MLB and he failed to hit. He is a natural at 1B but was blocked by Pasquantino. who played great and has a long-term contract. Caglianone was forced into RF. Now they have a dearth of outfielders that can hit. Only 22, Caglianone needs to go back to AAA ball. Kansas City will probably keep him on their MLB roster and destroy want remains of his confidence.
Here is the question. Would you trade a proven, serviceable player like Miles Mastrobuoni for Caglianone? This would be a buy low gamble that the M’s could turn him into an MLB hitter. Selected No. 6 in the 2024 draft, he probably needs another season in the minors. . If so, you could have the ideal 1B for a long time. If not, you have another Jarred Kelenic.
So we have 30-35 mil available to spend. Holes at 1st,2nd,3rd, 1 relief pitcher and a better RF. I’m signing Garver to come back at 2yrs, 10 mil. 5 per season. I’m trading Castillo, Ford, and Michael Arroyo to Boston and getting Duran. Add in another 12-20 prospect if needed to get it finished. I’m keeping Evans in the 5th rotation spot until Anderson comes up. Naylor gets 5/95 and comes back. Polo gets 2/22 and comes back. I’m going after Devin Williams at 4/60. Williamson gets 3rd unless Emerson takes it out of spring.
Rf – Duran
CF – Julio
C – Raleigh
DH – Polo
1st – Naylor
LF – Arozarena
3rd – Emerson
2nd – Young
SS – JP
Gilbert
Kirby
Woo
Miller
Evans
That team comes in at budget and competes in the playoffs. Add a bench with Robles, Canzone and Williamson, and a bullpen featuring Munoz, Brash, Williams, Hancock, Speier, Santos etc and I don’t see us not winning the pennant at least.
Sign Bellinger, trade for Brendan Donovan and sign a top end reliever. Offseason over.
1b- Raley-Bellinger
2b- Young/Rivas/Bliss/JP
SS- JP/Emerson
3b- Donovan
Rf- Bellinger-Robles
Cf- Julio
Lf-Randy
C- Cal-Ford
Dh- Canzone-Cal-Ford
Keep the rotation together for 1 more year. Extend Logan.
If you can, trade for Marte. If not trade for Donovan. Trade castillo and then trade for Peralta. You don’t need to chase the free agent market other than resigning Naylor and a relief lefty. You have the prospect capital. Use it.
“Meanwhile” should START the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.