First baseman Pete Alonso is ticketed for a second consecutive trip through free agency, as he told reporters when the regular season came to a close that he intends to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. He won’t officially become a free agent until five days after the World Series concludes, whispers about Alonso’s asking price as he returns to the market have already begun to percolate. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso is expected to seek a contract at least a seven-year deal as he returns to free agency.
It’s natural for players to set a high bar for contract negotiations entering free agency, but it would be something of a surprise if Alonso was able to secure that sort of arrangement. A seven-year pact would cover the slugger’s age-31 through -37 seasons, and that’s the sort of rarefied air that’s difficult for a defensively limited slugger to reach in free agency. Dodgers star Freddie Freeman is signed through age-37, but Freeman is an MVP winner and future Hall of Famer. It’s hard to argue Alonso is in that same stratosphere, and few other first basemen have managed to get that sort of long-term security.
Paul Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals back in was for just five years and $130MM, ending after his age-36 campaign, and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168MM contract extension with Atlanta is guaranteed only through his age-35 season. Both Goldschmidt and Olson were also Gold Glove winners for their work at first base when they signed those deals, while Alonso is viewed both by defensive metrics and many scouts as one of the game’s weaker first basemen defensively. While Puma points to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman as fellow Boras clients who managed to land contracts in a similar range to what Alonso is expected to seek, it also must be noted that Chapman actually signed a six-year extension with the Giants after he had already been in the fold on a short-term deal similar to the one Alonso will be opting out of.
More importantly, Semien was a shortstop when he signed with the Rangers, and Chapman is multi-time Gold Glove winner at third base. When it comes to financial expectations for infielders higher on the defensive spectrum, the bar is simply much different than it is for first basemen. That’s part of why players like Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa who have found themselves taking similar short-term contracts with high average annual values in free agency to the one Alonso signed last winter have been able to secure a higher AAV than Alonso did on a two-year pact. The same principle extends to larger deals, and helps to explain why someone like Xander Bogaerts managed to land a contract that will pay him through his age-40 campaign despite much less robust offensive numbers than someone like Alonso can offer.
Even if Alonso is unable to land the seven-year guarantee he appears to covet, it should still be expected that he’ll make out far better in free agency this time around than he did last season. After all, he’s no longer encumbered by draft pick compensation after rejecting a Qualifying Offer from the Mets last winter. That means a team that signs him away from Queens won’t have to forfeit draft capital in order to bring him into the fold, and that reality is likely to help his market a great deal. In addition, Alonso enjoyed a much stronger platform season this year than he did in 2024. This season, Alonso appeared in 162 games for the second consecutive season and slashed .277/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141, which tied his 2022 campaign for the second-best mark of his career.
Alonso famously rejected a seven-year, $158MM extension offer from the Mets back in 2023. That deal would have covered the last year of his arbitration eligibility, for which he ultimately received $20.5MM. In other words, he’ll need to make more than $137.5MM between 2025 and 2030 in order to surpass that benchmark. He made $30MM this year, meaning he’ll need to beat $107.5MM over the next five seasons if he’s going to exceed the value of that extension he passed on. It seems very safe to bet on him to do just that at this point.
Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals, which covered his age-32 to -36 seasons, netted him $130MM over five years. While Goldschmidt’s 145 career wRC+ at the time of that deal was far stronger than Alonso’s career 132 wRC+ entering this offseason, Alonso will be entering his age-31 season when his next contract begins and will benefit from more than half a decade of inflation since St. Louis inked that deal just before the 2019 season began. Considering that he wouldn’t even need to match Goldschmidt’s guarantee in order to beat that 2023 extension offer, it seems safe to say that Alonso will come out ahead in free agency this year so long as he doesn’t have to settle for another short-term agreement.
nobody wanted him last yr lol
nobody
not a single tm was interested in giving him a 1 yr deal
mets took him back like a battered bruised ex lover
and now he gonna cash in like a rock star
good for him
He will make money…probably not as much as he thinks he will, though.
He tells Cohen that he saw what money Soto got. He is not going to take small money from the Mets.
He will seek but not find seven years. Maybe five.
Yes but he was coming off two down seasons and a downward trend line and he dramatically improved last season. Plus he had a draft pick against him last off season. He’ll have more suitors this time around for sure but a long term deal seems unlikely. He will get maybe four at best.
At-game6-86
Yes but he was coming off two down seasons and a downward trend line and he dramatically improved last season.
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That’s my problem. I don’t think it was that big a season. His K/W was the worst of his career, his fielding declined, I think he’s settled into a 3.1 bWAR player. Which is fine, but he also has maybe one more peak year before he declines.
Nobody was going to sign him for the cash he wanted + a draft pick. He was seeking too much in a long term deal for teams to be interested. And in addition to that, nobody wants to pay $25M on a one year deal that costs then a pick either. So that killed the short term possibility with basically anyone other than the Mets.
Without the cost of a pick involved this off-season, he will fare better on the market. But it will be a bit of a surprise if he get any more than a 5-year deal averaging right around 25-30M per year.
The qualifying offer was a big detriment to teams considering him. That pick is valuable as well, and limited interest he would have otherwise had.
But as you said, he should do good in the market now the qo is gone, and he had an excellent prove it season. His defense might not be great, but having the ability to pencil him in 162 times a season is big.
He has NY Yankees written all over him. Replace Goldy.
He can seek whatever he wants but what he’ll get is probably way different.
It would be hilarious if the Yankees signed him and he helped them go father than the Mets next postseason.
New York sports media would be extremely entertaining.
New York sports media have been defanged. Social media and forums such as MLBTR now drive the discussion.
And yes, it was early forms of social media that came up with LOLmets following the ballclub’s 2007 collapse.
The Yankees are going nowhere! I am surprised they won as many games as they did. They can raise payroll and it will wont work out.
Thank you Nostradamus
ChuckyNJ: Actually it’s just you obsessed with LOLMets and bringing it up ad nauseam instead of getting a life.
Judge, Stanton, Alonso..YIKES!
@Ig
Replace Stanton, how? He had two years left in his deal and a no-trade clause. He’s not going anywhere, and the Yanks have options at 1b already.
Look up LOLmets on the Urban Dictionary if you think I’m trolling.
You’re trolling regardless of what any source says.
Give him around 5/110, *backloaded* with an opt-out following the second or third year.
Yeah maybe for the Sox if they give up on Casas. Cora said he wants some legitimate power.
He is absolutely insane to think he is getting seven years.
I like the idea. With a little luck, he’ll be great for 3 seasons and then opt out.
You’re crazy if you think no one wanted him on a 1 year deal. Rather, he probable declined any 1 year deals. Why would he take that when it was mentored that a couple of teams made short-term offers with opt outs? Think about it.
LoL. 7 years. Good luck. I’m thinking 4/100. He’s not leaving New York. However, are the rumors true? Soto at 1B? That’s very interesting. I still think Mets probably steal Bellinger or go in for Tucker. Honestly, it’s all about the pitching. Who is this year’s Crochet? Especially if Mets refuse to go in for Skenes.
Posturing for negotiations. If you want 5 years, start by asking for 7
5/140 seems like a fit to me.
Give him the 7 – make it 7/140 if that is what he wants to stroke his ego.
No one is giving him that.
I agree. Four years for $100 million or five years for $110 million, to one of the New York teams.
My prediction is a Goldschmidt type deal. 5 years, $120-130 million.
The Mets are not getting Skenes. Once he is a free agent , he will make Cohen bid to the moon. Soto is not moving to first. Mets and Yankees are gonig nowhere. The Mets are an April/May team. They die in the summer.
robw5555: You should seriously consider keeping your mouth shut so the rest of us just think you’re an ignorant troll instead of posting and confirming it with every dumb comment.
Mets had the best record in the majors on 6/12 yet missed the postseason on a tie-breaker.
Rob knows what he’s talking about.
And what about the Yankees? Maybe you and he are the same person.
How can you refuse to go in for a player that will not be made available? Come on dude, this isn’t MLB the show
You’re just figuring out that robw5555 is nothing but a troll who doesn’t actually think but just says dumb things about any team mentioned?
Trolls are like bullies. If you stand up to them by speaking sense, they just slink away and go back under their rocks.
A horse is like a man. Like when a horse walk, is like a when a man walk. And they say when a horse run, it’s like when a man run. And when a horse, he jump, it’s like when a man jump.
This years crochet might be skubal or maybe hunter Greene or Mackenzie gore but all of those names are unlikely
Mets and skubal would be fun but I feel like he’s destined for the dodgers or Phillies if they don’t sign schwarber and/or Kyle Tucker
There is NO way the Polar Bear signs a seven year deal. Present day analytics point out the regression of tools after early 30’s. The days of paying guys on initial contracts into their late 30’s are over.
I think you’re going to be very disappointed with the contract lengths of Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, and Tucker.
Teams are starting to pay less attention to analytics.
I’d give him 7/125M lol but doubt he takes an AAV that low.
@Jason
why would he take an average of $18 mil when he just peed out of a deal for $25 mil +?
my guess is he finds someone offering 4/$100 or 5/$140
Crazy that Pete Alonso will be signing a deal just like last year’s right before spring training
2024 was his worst year this year he got his batting average up and hit like the 2021-2022 version we know
Good luck with that puff bear
I was thinking Care Bear
Nope, not 7 years, although I imagine he will get 5.
4/100mil with opt out after year 2 for motivation. Righty 1B/DH clubs can happily settle for less power at much lower price. FO’s well aware walk years are peak motivation as far as this past season.
Cws: that sounds completely fair for team and player. Which is why Boras / Alonso will reject it.
Alonso’s probably going to sign with a team that needs a DH. His defense is not going to get better and he’s a liability at 1B. Maybe a team that has some time available at 1B as they slowly start using him at DH. The guy can definitely hit the ball though. Maybe 5/125.
And I am seeking a Victoria Secret model as my next wife. But not gonna happen!!
It could happen. You got game.
I think it’s far more likely you find what you’re seeking than Pete finds what he wants, but I wish you both luck in your quests.
I’m seeking a date with Sydney Sweeney and for Vince Vaughn to buy me lunch
Two things that aren’t of equal value. I’d rather never see Vince Vaughn, in fact I’d buy his lunch to not interact with him. That’s like saying “I’m seeking a fully paid mansion on 100 acres of forestland and a day old Taco Bell bean burrito someone farted on”
Good Luck it’s not happening
Alonso has zero leverage, especially if he’s not willing to leave New York. That’s why he signed late last year. I honestly think he could be very dangerous in Boston
MLBnyy: he’s willing to leave New York for the right price
What makes you think he’s unwilling to leave NY?
Welcome to the Colorado Rockies
I wish. He would at least be entertaining to watch. Excluding the 2020 season, the guy AVERAGES over 40 homers per year. I would love to have that in the lineup every day.
The Rockies? Forget it.
The Rockies and Rangers, each make a lot of sense.
He will sign somewhere else while the Rockies are trying to select and sign a new GM.
Would definitely be interesting seeing him at Coors Field for 81 games a year.
good luck with that…..sheesh
He could get 7 years at a reduced aav.
Someone would prob pay him 7/140 or so.
He isn’t getting 7/210 or something that big.
This has all the makings of a boras guy who sits waiting for a contract late into spring training.
Simm – I am catching up and typed in 7/140 above before I had made it down to you. No, he won’t take that AAV but his ability to get those later years with anticipated regression will be hard. For guys wanting to play into age 40, tacking on some years might be a way to guarantee hanging around – Hosmer got to play an extra year or so and a few other guys just because they were getting paid anyway (until they are finally told it’s better just to stay home!)
What a horrible deal that would be for some team if he gets it.
In the words of Darryl Kerrigan: Tell him he’s dreaming!
Positional problems are a real factor for many teams. He’s not in the “not playable” category yet, but at some point he’s going to be a mostly DH and that diminishes his value substantially. Part of the math comes from figuring out when “unplayable” happens, because then you have to pay for a first baseman on top of his monster contract. Boras wants both years and a high AAV.. And, Alonso made $30.5M this year, and Boras will insist on no cut in salary. I can see an ask of 7 years, $35M, which will be beyond his value.
Boras is in control now. He knows how to play Cohen. He hosed him on Soto.
Lol…haha…lmao….LMFAO.
Dream on. Put the crackpipe down pete !
Meh 7 at 150 maybe but 4 at 100 is more realistic
4 at 100? Boras hangs up the phone on that.
Ding ding. Round 1.
Hope it’s a good contest with plenty of verbal jabs being thrown.
Fire up, Steve !
If this is accurate, he seems to be getting bad contract advice. If he didnt get it last year, why would he get it this year?
The fundamental problem for Alonso is that there aren’t many teams that can spend that way, and almost all of them have 1B/DH covered.
The Mets have Vientos and Soto. Yeah they could try to move them to defensive positions they’re worse at for Alonso, but they *need* improvement defensively more than anything.
The Yankees have Rice at 1B and Giancarlo at DH. Rice arguably is better now and is much younger.
The Red Sox have Casas but I guess could put Alonso at DH
The Dodgers have Freeman at 1B and Ohtani at DHm Not a fit.
The Rangers were big spenders but now that they lost their cable deal they’re suddenly worried about money and probably won’t be doling out that kind of contract.
Maybe the Cubs, Giants, or Angels will step up? They occasionally offer those kind of deals. The Giants also have Devers at 1B.
Good analysis! Best comment in this post.
Cubs have Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki. They won’t be in the polar bear market.
You can never rule the Angels out from doing something stupid.
Is he willing to leave New York this time around? Every team knew last winter he only wanted to play for the Mets and it severely hampered any leverage he had.
With Guerrero staying in Toronto that took out one team that may have been interested. The Mets of course will be in the discussion. The Yankees may lose almost 80 Home Runs from their lineup and may also get in the mix. If Bregman opts out in Boston i could see the Red Sox at least kick the tires. You can’t rule out the Phillies but after them who’s left? Dodgers are out, Angels should probably be too. Cubs? Orioles? Mariners? Padres?
The first week or so of the season the Yankees hit a ton of homers with the Torpedo bats and I heard they were easy to win the World Series. What happened there?
Wow I forgot all about the torpedo bat craze
He still should’ve taken that extension! He’s not worth more than $25 mil AAV and no one’s giving him more than 3 years.
Someone will give him more than three years.
I think there would be a few teams that’d happily sign him for four years, with maybe some going five- being the trendy thing is to add that extra year to bring down the AAV. But, I’d be stunned if anyone exceeded five years on the offer.
Goodluck
A 7 year deal lmao. He’s lucky to get the 3 year deal he’ll end up with
Three year? Thats comedy. He is gong to screw the Mets over. He wont take small money.
7 yrs? LOL
7 years – lol. Come on Pete
Zero chance at 7. Sucks to be a power hitting corner infielder who will probably move to DH before it’s all said and done. I do like the player a lot. I’d be surprised if he gets 100. Unless he is willing to go somewhere he does not want to be.
5/150 and have a nice day.
Much as I would love to have that bat in Baltimore, I don’t think that happens. I can see him getting a 4 yr deal with maybe a team/player option for a fifth year. He’s definitely going to get paid, maybe just not for the length he wants. And good for him when he does get paid, Dude plays damn near every game hes been in the league, I for one cannot tell you how great an ability, “availability” is nowadays.
pass.
Hitting is back at a premium and that’s why he can ask for the moon. Turner won the NL: batting title with .304, Bichette finished second AL with .311…
Any lineup is better with him in it and there’s more $$ than ever sloshing around. He’ll fall short only if he gets too many option years. Pro hitters are harder and harder to find. Pitcher’s league now.
Hope the Mets do this!!!!!(Braves fan)
Can’t see him getting 7 years, but, who knows?
Yea, pass.
I still think he works out really well in Baltimore. The need for a legit RH power bat is there, offensive improvement above Mountcastle (likely a non tender candidate) and he can cycle between 1B and DH, with Basallo getting reps at first when he is the DH. The RH power makes too much sense in the left heavy lineup.
The only way it’s a 7 year deal is front loaded with opt outs after years 2 and 3 or something like that, so that there is enough incentive for him to opt out if still performing well enough to justify a higher AVV and also offers the club some what of an easier contract to digest with lower annual salary towards the end if his production drops drastically.
Chris Davis 2.0
Arte Moreno ready to pay, what could go wrong