It was starting pitching depth that carried the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance in more than a decade. Their bats ranked 14th in runs per game, 19th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+. Their gloves ranked 20th in errors, DRS, and FRV. Their bullpen ranked 14th in ERA, but 27th in xERA and 27th in SIERA. Yet, the Reds finished 83-79, edging out the Mets for the NL’s final Wild Card spot. How did they pull it off? Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell, and Chase Burns had a whole lot to do with it. Those seven arms combined to start 152 of Cincinnati’s 162 games, pitching to a 3.69 ERA (84 ERA-) in 832 innings. Their collective 16.4 FanGraphs WAR and 8.64 Win Probability Added as starters helped the Reds finish with the second-best rotation fWAR and third-best WPA in the sport.
Martinez and Littell are set to hit free agency, but Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, and Burns will be back. Three promising arms who missed 2024 with injuries – Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar – should factor into the mix as well, as could top prospect Chase Petty. That’s a lot of names for one rotation.
Yet, president of baseball operations Nick Krall doesn’t seem overly eager to deal from that area of strength. “I wouldn’t say no,” he told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer), when asked about the possibility of trading a starter this winter. “But when you trade pitchers, you’ve got to go [back]fill them somehow. We all know how it works, where you run out of innings at some point in the season, guys get hurt, things happen.”
The POBO’s comments hit on a key point. The 2025 Reds didn’t just succeed because their starting pitchers were excellent, but because their staff was so deep. Trading away too much of that depth could leave the team scrambling in the case of injuries next season. Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, and Singer are presumably locks for 2026. Meanwhile, Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty all have minor league options; presuming one of them wins the final rotation spot out of spring training, the other four (if healthy) can wait in the wings at Triple-A. Excluding openers, the Reds used 10 different starting pitchers in 2025. They’re going to need more than five to get through another campaign.
That’s especially true with this group of arms. Singer has proven himself to be a durable workhorse over the past few years. But no one else on Cincinnati’s staff has ever made 30 starts in a season. Abbott qualified for the ERA title for the first time in 2025, but Greene and Lodolo have yet to accomplish that feat. Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty have started a grand total of 49 games in their young careers, and 26 of those belong to Williamson. As general manager Brad Meador mentioned, the Reds are “going to have to manage the innings of a handful of those guys.”
Krall also acknowledged that trading from his major league pitching depth might not be the most straightforward way to improve other areas of the roster.
“It’s really hard to say we’re going to go trade a pitcher – and I’m not sure you’re going to trade a pitcher for offense,” he explained. “You might end up trading the pitcher for a prospect and then go have to sign the offense.”
[Related: Cincinnati Reds Offseason Outlook, for MLBTR Front Office subscribers]
None of this is to say the Reds won’t end up trading a starter. It’s just not a given. Asked about the possibility of dealing Greene, an All-Star on an incredibly team-friendly contract (he’s guaranteed just $42MM over the next three years), Krall could have shut down the line of questioning. Instead, he replied, “I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point.” The Reds aren’t actively shopping any of their young starters, but it doesn’t sound like anyone is untouchable either. After all, if anyone were untouchable, one would think it would be Greene.
That said, for all the same reasons the Reds wouldn’t want to trade Greene, he would bring back a nice return in a deal. All of Cincinnati’s starters are cost-controlled, with Singer, Lodolo, and Williamson still in their arbitration years, and Abbott, Burns, Lowder, Aguiar, and Petty not yet eligible for arbitration. Yet, Greene is both a proven ace and a high-upside young arm, and he is under team control through the 2030 season. That’s a valuable player.
If the Reds are looking to shave payroll, trading Singer would be their best course of action; he is projected to make $11.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. If they’re trying to bring back an MLB-ready position player without significantly weakening their rotation for 2026, then it’s Petty, still a top prospect, who makes the most sense to move. However, if the goal is simply to find the best possible return, it’s Greene who would command such a package.
Nothing Krall said suggests Greene is on the block. But he had a chance to say Greene was off limits, and he didn’t take it. Instead, the POBO only said that he didn’t want to speculate about trade candidates because he hadn’t “had any conversations with other clubs.” Of course, Krall also said that when a team trades a pitcher, they have to somehow fill his spot. Greene, it should go without saying, wouldn’t be easy to replace. So, a trade still seems improbable – but perhaps it’s slightly closer to being a real possibility than Reds fans might want to believe.
Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, and Burns =
1 of these will get hurt
so bring up lowder
when he gets hurt again
bring up petty
Hopefully not Petty. He has recently shown that he is unreliable in AAA as well.
Trading pitching for a bat should be plan Z
ask the Royals
Or ask the Mariners, who everyone demanded trade from their rotation for a bat last offseason… then the offense performed better than the starting pitching over the entirety of the season. Injuries happen.
myaccount2
Or ask the Mariners, who everyone demanded trade from their rotation for a bat last offseason…
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I did ask the mariners. They said that ‘everyone’ was right and traded for two major offensive pieces, went 32-20 after the trade, and won their first round of the playoffs.
The one starter no one wanted was Luis Castillo; who turned out to be their most consistent starter. He ended the season with a 3.54 era ranking 21 in mlb. (4.71 road) He was the only one of the big five not to land on the injured list. With the no-trade clause expiring I bet he will get traded this winter. He’s a decent #3 in most rotations.
That’s not the point, Joe. The point is everyone demanded they trade from the rotation to supplement the lineup since nobody wanted prospects. Also, Suarez has been a below average hitter since the Mariners acquired him.
If we traded Castillo, we don’t win in the ALDS and we probably don’t even make the playoffs because Hancock and Evans would have had to start 33 games.
The point being is that many people suggested that they needed to trade for more offense. Since the Mariners did in fact trade for more offense, then those that suggested that they needed to trade for more offense, were validated.
Note I never once argued we didn’t need to trade for offense. That part was obvious. But if you were an M’s fan like I am, you’d have noticed how over the offseason everyone said we needed to trade from our rotation “surplus” to upgrade the O since teams weren’t trading for our prospects. We never ended up doing that, not in the offseason nor at the deadline. And thank goodness because if we had, we wouldn’t have made the playoffs with Woo, Miller, Evans, Hancock, and ??? goimg in May when Gilbert and Kirby were both hurt and Castillo would have been in Boston.
So if those people feel validated by one big upgrade and one small upgrade to an offense that was already 9th in wRC+ at the time, that’s just confirmation bias and self-reassurance. We were patient, waited for the deadline, and traded mediocre to bad prospects to upgrade the offense. That’s exactly the route the Reds should take.
And are now two games away from the World Series.
Since they haven’t won a playoff series since 1995, they should past plan Z by now.
It’s generally a great idea to trade pitching for hitting, assuming you’re getting somewhere near a like to like valuation on projected WAR. But that’s why Krall said it’s unlikely—MLB clubs all know how to value different asset types. No GM wants to be the guy who trades something for a soon-to-be-busted UCL.
It’s only generally a great idea if a team can capitalize on the pitcher’s value and have a replacement who can adequately fill in for said pitcher.
I would hate if they traded Greene, but if they got the right return I’d hate it a lot less
They’re not trading Greene.
This is hilarious, they are NOT trading Hunter Greene. He’s dominating and making reasonable money for years. They couldn’t get back enough for him. Now if he has another injury marred season and Chase Burns takes his place then I could see it. In the meantime, Singer and his $12 mil will be the one to go and make room for the young guns.
If he has another injury marred season his value will go way down. Know when to hold em, know when to fold em.
Nick Kroll, funny guy
The Reds could’ve drafted Nick Kurtz over Chase Burns. Considering their surplus of young starting pitching and their need for offense, it probably would’ve been the better pick.
That’s hindsight. Every team in baseball has passed over what later proves to be a better choice for an inferior one. Teams are trying to project several years into the future, and it’s too hard to tell, between two good athletes, who will develop better. Plus teams don’t draft for need. They draft who they think is the best player regardless of position.
Johnny Bench was passed over by every club in the first round.
HBan22
Nick Kurtz was and is an amazing star, and it took around 100 MLB games for him to get down-ballot MVP votes. If your point is that the Reds would trade Burns to get Kurtz knowing what they know now, sure they would. But drafting an elite starting pitcher over an elite slugging 1B or corner outfielder seems like a reasonable move. Sacramento As are happy with how it worked out.
I think it’s entirely possible Cincinnati ends up happy with the outcome, too. Strong, controllable starting pitching is hard to come by. If he ends up being a frontline starter, they would take it. And in that case, he would probably carry just as much value–in performance and trade–as Kurtz, given their respective positions.
Yeah, how dare they not be able to see into the future and know exactly what Kurtz would turn into. He could have easily become the next Andrew Vaughn too. The draft is all about luck and Burns could still end up being the better long term choice.
Burns was the best pick of the draft. His stats are incredible. His K/IP was >1.50., with a FIP of 2.65.
Best pick joe but wasn’t ranked that high. Great scouting on reds part !
They would not have taken kurtz. They woulda took the guy the Rockies took. They needed a bat that draft like you say and there was a ton of highly talented guys. I was shocked reds took burns but definitely glad they did by the way it’s all played out so far
The Reds should not deplete any pitching depth for offense. There are plenty of bats that can be had relatively inexpensively as i doubt very much anyone believes the Reds will swim in Pete Alonso or Kyle Tucker waters
I-Happ would be a start…
They know Greene will miss half the season again and most likely Lodolo will have some missing time too.
Not sure you can consider Petty much of a prospect at this point. We have seen his act a couple of times. Maybe in the bullpen at some point like Phillips.
Pitchers are often sad, broken things………….best to keep plenty of useable spares around.
Forgot to mention Lowder, Williamson and Aguilar all missed a whole year. To expect them to pick up where they left off is short sighted. They may need a triple A tune up anyway.
Too much pitching is always a good problem to have.
As reliable as the sun rising every day, this one with his half truths. Greene didn’t miss half the season and there is no again. Newsflash!: pitchers tend to miss time due to injury. Greene and Lodolo have been a bit more injury prone than some. I guess it’s another thing to blame on Nick Krall.
Aside from a few arms, Reds have a lot of nothing.
That lot of nothing made the playoffs.
Yeah, but they couldn’t beat LAD in LA.
Kind of a tall order
Neither could the Phillies. Good company for the Reds to be in at this point.
I was being sarcastic in response to raulp’ kind of senseless remark.
Sarcasm is my happy place.
They actually have 5 pitching in all of ball. They have a top 40 player in Elly. A top 10 center fielder. Arguably the best defensive player in Hayes. What are you talking about?
They can let Littell and Martinez walk and roll with what they have. They can let Singer walk after 2026. They dont need to trade anyone and they can spend money elsewhere on the roster.
If they can figure out how spend it, candy and moose were horrible signings
Don’t forget Shogo 😉
They can spend it elsewhere…the question always is, will they?
Yeah I hope they spend. And spend smart of course too. No more Candelarios.
They have some interesting young position player prospects. Elly, McLain, CES, etc.
You guys are slaves to the moment
If Singer pitches again in 2026 like he did in 2025, and the Reds make the postseason again, then he’s getting a QO in 12 months time.
Of course Krall isn’t tipping his hand as to his intentions. He or no one else knows at this point how trade negotiations will play out. He knows we need a thumper in the middle of the order and will need to pony up the cash in free agency or trade quality to get quality. It’s that simple.
The park works in their favor for a free agent signing on the hitter side too. Especially on a 1 year deal
Trade Lodolo for offense. He had a career year. He’s been very injury prone and only has two years before hitting free agency. He very well could have peaked and hit his top market value. Plus an injury riddled pitcher is the last guy Reds should invest an expensive extension on. Would be Homer Bailey part 2 which killed the franchise for several years.
If I’m the Mets, I’m calling for Greene. Especially if Pirates are not trading Skenes. Go get that ace
What a genius idea. A pitcher, coming into his prime, has the best year of his career with 29 starts. Quick, let’s get rid of him.
I would if I’m the Mets. They seem to be developing talent and they can always outspend the next team so why not ??
The first smart thing Nick has said to the press in years.
I believe Krall will not trade any of his SP this winter. However if his 5 starters (Greene, Lodolo, Singer, Abbott, & Burns) are healthy next mid March; plus 3 of Williamson, Aguiar, Lowder, and Petty also are healthy- things may change.
I would not trade any pitching period. The team is losing Litell, Martinez, Pagan, Barlow and maybe Suter. That’s alot of experienced pitching gone. There is no guarantee that Lowder, Williamson and Aquilar will be ready and/or pitch well. Of the projected starting rotation for 2026 all but Singer spent time on the IL in 2025. It will happen again. If anything I would be adding pitching not trading it.I’d like to see them bring back Martinez but not anything close to $21 million. His ability to start and long relieve is priceless to a team. I suspect he wants to start and will probably be signed somewhere to do just that. Sign Josh Naylor and move Steer to the outfield. I know he is not a 35-40 hr hitter but he will automatically be the best hitter on the team. Let’s be honest, the front office is not going to sign Alonso, Schwarber or Bregman at over $30 million a year. Only in MLB The Show would that happen.
They should trade Greene. They have pitching, even without Greene. Greene has an injury history. And the return for Greene will be one of the best returns in history.
I don’t think the Padres have enough spare prospects, but they do have a need. My guess, besides Greene not getting traded at all, is that he goes to the Mets. To me, it makes no sense to sign a guy for $51M, and then refuse to add a #1 SP.
This should be reds plan b if they can’t secure anyone in FA. I’m with you, Greene is expendable
If you’re trying to make the playoffs, keep your pitchers. If you’re trying to win a world championship, you’re gonna have to trade some of them because of an owner who won’t spend real money on a lineup.
I never believe anything a sports team GM says and to be honest they don’t have to share what’s up their sleeves, I would hope whatever deal they make or FA they sign is to get this team as a legitimate contender. Last year around this time I feel they did the most important move signing a big time coach instead of unknowns or local past heroes. It started there and they made real progress we saw some guys primarily pitchers grow…but let’s get real every fan, their media and Krall knows the next move needs to be can’t miss and if it’s subtracting from their strength to get a big time bat that’ll be the move. I personally would hate to see any of their rotation dealt but it’s probably the best way to get the offense they need, I just don’t see them spending big on Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman, etc.
Go Reds 2026
@Johnny: Good points, but please, it’s manager, not coach. This is baseball
Sorry my bad but I do use the name Johnny U. different sport and he was coached lol
Tucker did not have a very good year and might not get the big contract people assume he will get. And he seems to like playing in favorable conditions, e.g., a bandbox like GAB. (He hated the winds at Wrigley Field, and the outfield walls.) The Reds might be a good and realistic landing spot for him if they are willing to spend a bit.
If they don’t want to trade away talent, the move that makes the most sense is signing Schwarbar. He’s a hometown guy and won’t break the bank because of his age and position. But he will help fix the team’s biggest weakness. Offensive production.
You’ve got to at least entertain feelers on Andrew Abbott. Good time to sell, value never been higher. I’d only trade if it’s a bat (left field?) that bring a similar WAR value and has equivalent time left under team control. Sounds like a big asking price, but there are teams that desperately need pitching, we could get an offer.
Keep the pitching, Elly to CF, TJ to LF, Marte in RF, McClain to SS, Steer to 2B, Sal at 1B, Hayes at 3B, sign Schwarber, shore up the BP.. Done.
I been saying the same thing Slider33! BP needs a couple lefties. Would like to see Pagan and Barlow back if money is right.