It was starting pitching depth that carried the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance in more than a decade. Their bats ranked 14th in runs per game, 19th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+. Their gloves ranked 20th in errors, DRS, and FRV. Their bullpen ranked 14th in ERA, but 27th in xERA and 27th in SIERA. Yet, the Reds finished 83-79, edging out the Mets for the NL’s final Wild Card spot. How did they pull it off? Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell, and Chase Burns had a whole lot to do with it. Those seven arms combined to start 152 of Cincinnati’s 162 games, pitching to a 3.69 ERA (84 ERA-) in 832 innings. Their collective 16.4 FanGraphs WAR and 8.64 Win Probability Added as starters helped the Reds finish with the second-best rotation fWAR and third-best WPA in the sport.
Martinez and Littell are set to hit free agency, but Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, and Burns will be back. Three promising arms who missed 2024 with injuries – Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar – should factor into the mix as well, as could top prospect Chase Petty. That’s a lot of names for one rotation.
Yet, president of baseball operations Nick Krall doesn’t seem overly eager to deal from that area of strength. “I wouldn’t say no,” he told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer), when asked about the possibility of trading a starter this winter. “But when you trade pitchers, you’ve got to go [back]fill them somehow. We all know how it works, where you run out of innings at some point in the season, guys get hurt, things happen.”
The POBO’s comments hit on a key point. The 2025 Reds didn’t just succeed because their starting pitchers were excellent, but because their staff was so deep. Trading away too much of that depth could leave the team scrambling in the case of injuries next season. Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, and Singer are presumably locks for 2026. Meanwhile, Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty all have minor league options; presuming one of them wins the final rotation spot out of spring training, the other four (if healthy) can wait in the wings at Triple-A. Excluding openers, the Reds used 10 different starting pitchers in 2025. They’re going to need more than five to get through another campaign.
That’s especially true with this group of arms. Singer has proven himself to be a durable workhorse over the past few years. But no one else on Cincinnati’s staff has ever made 30 starts in a season. Abbott qualified for the ERA title for the first time in 2025, but Greene and Lodolo have yet to accomplish that feat. Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Aguiar, and Petty have started a grand total of 49 games in their young careers, and 26 of those belong to Williamson. As general manager Brad Meador mentioned, the Reds are “going to have to manage the innings of a handful of those guys.”
Krall also acknowledged that trading from his major league pitching depth might not be the most straightforward way to improve other areas of the roster.
“It’s really hard to say we’re going to go trade a pitcher – and I’m not sure you’re going to trade a pitcher for offense,” he explained. “You might end up trading the pitcher for a prospect and then go have to sign the offense.”
[Related: Cincinnati Reds Offseason Outlook, for MLBTR Front Office subscribers]
None of this is to say the Reds won’t end up trading a starter. It’s just not a given. Asked about the possibility of dealing Greene, an All-Star on an incredibly team-friendly contract (he’s guaranteed just $42MM over the next three years), Krall could have shut down the line of questioning. Instead, he replied, “I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point.” The Reds aren’t actively shopping any of their young starters, but it doesn’t sound like anyone is untouchable either. After all, if anyone were untouchable, one would think it would be Greene.
That said, for all the same reasons the Reds wouldn’t want to trade Greene, he would bring back a nice return in a deal. All of Cincinnati’s starters are cost-controlled, with Singer, Lodolo, and Williamson still in their arbitration years, and Abbott, Burns, Lowder, Aguiar, and Petty not yet eligible for arbitration. Yet, Greene is both a proven ace and a high-upside young arm, and he is under team control through the 2030 season. That’s a valuable player.
If the Reds are looking to shave payroll, trading Singer would be their best course of action; he is projected to make $11.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. If they’re trying to bring back an MLB-ready position player without significantly weakening their rotation for 2026, then it’s Petty, still a top prospect, who makes the most sense to move. However, if the goal is simply to find the best possible return, it’s Greene who would command such a package.
Nothing Krall said suggests Greene is on the block. But he had a chance to say Greene was off limits, and he didn’t take it. Instead, the POBO only said that he didn’t want to speculate about trade candidates because he hadn’t “had any conversations with other clubs.” Of course, Krall also said that when a team trades a pitcher, they have to somehow fill his spot. Greene, it should go without saying, wouldn’t be easy to replace. So, a trade still seems improbable – but perhaps it’s slightly closer to being a real possibility than Reds fans might want to believe.
Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, and Burns =
1 of these will get hurt
so bring up lowder
when he gets hurt again
bring up petty
Trading pitching for a bat should be plan Z
ask the Royals
Or ask the Mariners, who everyone demanded trade from their rotation for a bat last offseason… then the offense performed better than the starting pitching over the entirety of the season. Injuries happen.
Since they haven’t won a playoff series since 1995, they should past plan Z by now.
I would hate if they traded Greene, but if they got the right return I’d hate it a lot less
They’re not trading Greene.
Nick Kroll, funny guy
The Reds could’ve drafted Nick Kurtz over Chase Burns. Considering their surplus of young starting pitching and their need for offense, it probably would’ve been the better pick.
That’s hindsight. Every team in baseball has passed over what later proves to be a better choice for an inferior one. Teams are trying to project several years into the future, and it’s too hard to tell, between two good athletes, who will develop better. Plus teams don’t draft for need. They draft who they think is the best player regardless of position.
Johnny Bench was passed over by every club in the first round.
HBan22
Nick Kurtz was and is an amazing star, and it took around 100 MLB games for him to get down-ballot MVP votes. If your point is that the Reds would trade Burns to get Kurtz knowing what they know now, sure they would. But drafting an elite starting pitcher over an elite slugging 1B or corner outfielder seems like a reasonable move. Sacramento As are happy with how it worked out.
I think it’s entirely possible Cincinnati ends up happy with the outcome, too. Strong, controllable starting pitching is hard to come by. If he ends up being a frontline starter, they would take it. And in that case, he would probably carry just as much value–in performance and trade–as Kurtz, given their respective positions.
Yeah, how dare they not be able to see into the future and know exactly what Kurtz would turn into. He could have easily become the next Andrew Vaughn too. The draft is all about luck and Burns could still end up being the better long term choice.
The Reds should not deplete any pitching depth for offense. There are plenty of bats that can be had relatively inexpensively as i doubt very much anyone believes the Reds will swim in Pete Alonso or Kyle Tucker waters
They know Greene will miss half the season again and most likely Lodolo will have some missing time too.
Not sure you can consider Petty much of a prospect at this point. We have seen his act a couple of times. Maybe in the bullpen at some point like Phillips.
Pitchers are often sad, broken things………….best to keep plenty of useable spares around.
Forgot to mention Lowder, Williamson and Aguilar all missed a whole year. To expect them to pick up where they left off is short sighted. They may need a triple A tune up anyway.
Too much pitching is always a good problem to have.
A couple years ago everyone in the comments section was saying the Reds need to trade hitting for pitching. Now the consensus is they need to trade pitching for hitting. Fans and writers have a strong recency bias, Krall is smart to recognize pitching depth is important for contenders.
That said, I’d be interested in what return expiring contracts like Singer (maybe throw in Lux if someone was interested in that package) just because their market size means they’re not the most likely to QO borderline candidates.
Aside from a few arms, Reds have a lot of nothing.
That lot of nothing made the playoffs.
They can let Littell and Martinez walk and roll with what they have. They can let Singer walk after 2026. They dont need to trade anyone and they can spend money elsewhere on the roster.
If they can figure out how spend it, candy and moose were horrible signings
They can spend it elsewhere…the question always is, will they?
They have some interesting young position player prospects. Elly, McLain, CES, etc.
You guys are slaves to the moment
Of course Krall isn’t tipping his hand as to his intentions. He or no one else knows at this point how trade negotiations will play out. He knows we need a thumper in the middle of the order and will need to pony up the cash in free agency or trade quality to get quality. It’s that simple.
The park works in their favor for a free agent signing on the hitter side too. Especially on a 1 year deal
Trade Lodolo for offense. He had a career year. He’s been very injury prone and only has two years before hitting free agency. He very well could have peaked and hit his top market value. Plus an injury riddled pitcher is the last guy Reds should invest an expensive extension on. Would be Homer Bailey part 2 which killed the franchise for several years.
If I’m the Mets, I’m calling for Greene. Especially if Pirates are not trading Skenes. Go get that ace