A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.
We’re moving to center field, a position that has been weak in free agency for the past few years. That’s again the case this winter, as the handful of potential regulars face questions about their offensive consistency and/or how long they can play up the middle. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.
Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop
Everyday Players
Trent Grisham (29)
Grisham has gone from fourth outfielder to the top center fielder in the class within six months. He picked a great time for the best season of his career. Grisham connected on 34 home runs, doubling his previous season high. He pushed his already strong walk rate to a career-high 14.1% clip while cutting his strikeouts (23.6%) to the lowest mark in four years. The end result was a .235/.348/.464 slash line across 581 plate appearances. He spent most of the season hitting atop the Yankee lineup in front of Aaron Judge.
It’s not entirely fair to say that came out of nowhere. Grisham is a former top prospect who had a couple strong seasons with the Padres early in his career. He had hit just .191/.298/.353 in nearly 1300 trips to the plate from 2022-24, however, so almost no one would have seen a season like this coming.
The breakout was neither a product of batted ball luck nor Yankee Stadium. Grisham posted well above-average marks in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity. Statcast’s expected batting average and slugging percentage (based on his plate discipline, exit velocities and launch angles) were even better than his actual production. That doesn’t necessarily mean the numbers are sustainable. Even if this year’s results were “deserved,” there’s no guarantee he’ll continue swinging the bat as well as he did.
While this was a career year offensively, Grisham’s defensive grades went the other way. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved had graded him as an average or better defender in every previous season. That was not the case this year, with DRS (-11) particularly down on his work. Grisham’s speed has trended down over the past few seasons and he’s now one of the slower center fielders in MLB.
It leaves teams with a difficult evaluation. Will Grisham remain an impact bat at the top of a lineup? How much longer will he stick in center field? He’s one of the most high-variance players in the entire free agent class. The Yankees should make him a qualifying offer, which he’d almost certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a compensatory pick after the fourth round while costing a signing team draft (and potentially international bonus pool) compensation. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table.
Cody Bellinger (30)
Bellinger is opting out of the final year on his contract with the Yankees. New York won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer because he already received one from the Cubs after the 2023 season. Bellinger won’t be attached to draft compensation and should pull a larger contract than Grisham, potentially in the nine figures.
It’s unclear if any team would make that kind of offer for Bellinger to play center field every day. He hasn’t reached 500 innings at the position in either of the past two years. The Cubs split him evenly between center and right in 2024. The Yankees gave him 38 starts and a little over 300 innings in center while playing him more often in the corners. Bellinger still runs well and grades as a strong corner defender, though the hope would probably be for league average glovework if a team plays him in center.
Bellinger hit 29 homers while slashing .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. His left-handed swing seemed tailor made for Yankee Stadium, as he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 longballs at home. His pedestrian road numbers (.241/.301/.414) could give some teams pause, and Belllinger’s middling exit velocities have been a talking point for the past few years. He very rarely strikes out, though, and he’s coming off his second well above-average offensive season in the past three years.
Harrison Bader (32)
Bader will decline his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout. He hits the market for a third consecutive offseason. His past two trips resulted in one-year deals. Bader should find a multi-year pact this time around, and there’s an outside chance he commands a three-year deal.
A plus runner with excellent range and a strong arm, Bader has been a fantastic defender throughout his career. Even at 32, he’s the best defensive center fielder on the open market (assuming the White Sox pick up their option on Luis Robert). Bader split his 2025 season almost equally between left and center, but that was only because he spent the first half playing in the same Minnesota outfield as Byron Buxton. He was a full-time center fielder after being traded to the Phillies at the deadline.
The question is how much of this year’s personal-best offensive output is sustainable. Bader slashed .277/.347/.449 with a career-high 17 home runs in 501 plate appearances. He set new high water marks in batting average and on-base percentage. His slugging output was the second-best of his career behind his 2021 season with St. Louis.
Bader’s underlying offensive metrics are not as encouraging. He struck out at a 27.1% clip, his highest rate in five seasons. He made more hard contact than he had in prior years, but Statcast estimators feel he dramatically outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage. He’s unlikely to hit .359 on balls in play again. Teams will expect him to take a step back offensively. He should land somewhere in between this year’s production and the .239/.284/.360 slash he posted over the prior three seasons.
Low-End Regulars/Fourth Outfielders
Cedric Mullins (31)
A few months ago, Mullins had an outside chance at a nine-figure deal. He started the year on fire, hitting .278/.412/.515 with six home runs through the end of April. He was on pace for his best season since he was a top ten MVP finisher four years ago.
Things fell apart. Mullins had a sub-.650 OPS in four of the final five months. He hit .198/.263/.355 in 379 plate appearances from May 1 onward. A deadline trade to the Mets didn’t serve as the turning point they’d hoped. Mullins hit .182/.284/.281 over 42 games in Queens. He was essentially relegated to fourth outfield work as the team squandered a playoff berth.
Mullins still logged over 1000 innings in center field. Defensive metrics have been mixed on him throughout his career. Statcast grades him as a generally rangy defender but rates his arm as one of the worst in the league. He’ll probably find a team willing to play him every day, but he’s likely looking at a one-year deal.
Lane Thomas (30)
While Thomas is probably better suited for right field, the Guardians mostly used him in center. Cleveland paid a decent prospect price to acquire Thomas from Washington at the 2024 deadline. It didn’t work out (postseason homer off Tarik Skubal aside), as he hit .189/.258/.340 over 329 plate appearances with the Guardians. That includes a .160/.246/.272 slash over 39 games this season. Thomas dealt with a right wrist injury early in the season and tried to play through plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He had three separate injured list stints overall.
Thomas is only two seasons removed from hitting 28 homers and stealing 20 bases for the Nats. He was an above-average regular who feasted on left-handed pitching at his best. He’ll need to take a one-year deal after how poorly things went in Cleveland.
Team Options
Luis Robert Jr. (28)
Robert isn’t likely to get to the market. The White Sox hold a $20MM club option that comes with a $2MM buyout. The $18MM difference is substantial for a player who has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons. The White Sox maintained a high asking price on Robert in trade talks, though, and GM Chris Getz has implied that they’ll exercise the option. There’s another $20MM option for 2027, so there’s still some long-term upside if Robert recaptures the form he showed earlier in his career.
Minor League Deal Candidates
- Garrett Hampson (31)
- Travis Jankowski (35)
- Jorge Mateo (31)
- Jose Siri (31)
- Leody Taveras (27)
- Chris Taylor (35)
- Tyler Wade (31)
Wild Grisham is listed above beli ! Not sure if yanks will be able to keep both with such a thin class out there
Grisham played in CF where as Beli played the corners.
If this was a general OF ranking then you’d see different results.
Grisham is most likely gone. I hope Cashman has the good sense to bring Bellinger back.
Bellinger played great this season but his career ups and downs scare me.
Both Grishom and Belli should remain in the Bronx if reasonable offers are made as Belli’s swing is best at Yankee Stadium and elsewhere, Grishom won’t benefit from hitting in front of Judge. Personally, I think both along with Bader will all have worse seasons next year.
it is more about their chops in Center- neither are really CF anymore, but more teams will gamble that that Grisham (who was a good CF until last year) can still play the position. Belli is really a corner OF full time at this point.
If both signed to play the corner i would not be shocked. More and More teams seem to be OK trotting out bad fielding CF (maybe not bad, but miscast)
Maybe it’s a talent issue, while 30 teams each need to play someone in CF on at least a semi-regular basis who’s also not completely inept offensively?
Or maybe we’ve seen a defensive value creep in CF among the top tier CF defenders that’s making the relatively less talented defensive CF seem worse than they seemed before?
The only way they keep Grisham is if they QO him and he takes it. I expect they’ll give Belli a market contract since he’s was such a great fit.
Lane Thomas was really miscast by the Guardians. He should be a 4th OF who primarily plays against LHP and plays RF. He is not an everyday CF. But honestly he makes a ton of sense for a reunion in his proper role – the projected Guardians OF, 1B, and DH are all lefties (Kwan, DeLauter, Valera, Manzardo, Kayfus). Their bench should primarily be lefty crushers like him and Angel Martinez.
that 28/20 season is the reason he will continue getting cast as more than what he is for a few more years. You are right, but a team will give him more to be the every day player he is not.
You could say the same thing about Amed Rosario on the Guards
I’m not sure Amed Rosario really was meant for any role. His lack of range to his left (weirdly) made him unplayable at 2B while still not a strong defender at SS. He had a roughly league average bat but that really only worked at SS and didn’t make sense in OF/3B. And it’s not like he had really strong splits to deploy him as a platoon guy. It’s weird because a league average bat should theoretically always be in demand. But his defense was bad everywhere and he didn’t really play enough positions to be a utility guy.
A league average bat with decent defense can still be a full-time starter at 3B or CO on a contender as long as the team has enough offense elsewhere in the lineup.
Bring Bader back…Philly
Then ranger Suarez would be gone and maybe realmuto too since there’s no way they let schwarber walk
I would let Schwarber walk. At his age with only one +tool(power) his money could be used a lot more wisely
Overrated, but nice fit for the Phillies. Especially with Marsh on the team. When you put him in a pool with say Bohm and Alvarado, who is the one want?
Bader had a .359 BABIP this season. The previous 3 seasons he had a .276, a .261, and a .300 BABIP respectively. I think any club that signs him this winter expecting a 2025 repeat is doomed.
It’s a bad year to need a CF. Yikes.
Cut and paste for all positions.
The concept of extending young players early and the 10+ years contracts on first FA trip has changed the FA game forever.
Not saying it is good or bad but for the past 5-8 years the FA elite has dwindled to 1 or 2 at each position. It has taken awhile to get all positions but now, even SS (remember just 2-3 years ago the big FA SS crop?). Well that is done now.
Conversely, this would be a good year to trade Duran as a CF.
Defensive runs saved is a relative stat. It compares an individual’s runs saved versus league average. As the defenders at CF get better (think Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong, Victor Scott, Jackson Merrill, Parker Meadows, etc.), the average has increased. It doesn’t mean Grisham has gotten worse. Watching him play regularly, I’m hard pressed to think of a play he should have made but didn’t (it probably hurts his DRS that he has two corner outfilders with exceptional range around him). I’m sure the Yankees would be thrilled to have him back, as would the Mets (although Citi Field might be a tough park for hitting for him) and the Phillies (if they don’t bring Bader back).
There’s a chance they may Q.O. him if early talks with Belli-Boras are far apart.
Let’s assume you are correct and in terms of production across the league, the average is getting better. If your CF defense is not getting better at a relative rate, you are becoming less valuable. So, in terms of Grisham’s market and the Yankees centerfield defense, he is “getting worse” by becoming less valuable which is all that matters in terms of success.
That’s now how it works. If only the top 5 or so CF are getting better defensively, the average (mean) is creeping upwards, but the median stays the same. That means every CF who is not in that top tier whose defensive skills have not actually become worse due to age or injury (or other young guys getting better) is still nearly as valuable defensively as he was before despite their defensive metrics getting worse. They’re still just as valuable in terms of success except when playing one of the rare teams with one of those top tier defensive CF.
As for it being cyclical, that’s exactly why most defensive CF seem worse than they actually are right now (if the theory is correct). When/if the cycle ends, their valuations will go back to normal despite once again nothing having actually changed for many of them, but that’s in the future. Whether or not it’s a continuous evolution is irrelevant to what is happening right now.
Are the Yankees trying to be average or a top 5 team?
Your premise that centerfielders are getting better is flawed. Pointing out some young players who can really play the position is cyclical, but hardly indicative of some evolution of athletic skills. In a few years these phenoms start slowing down if not from age then from the ravages of the injuries that tend to pile up. If a player is lucky he gets his CONTRACT and stops laying himself out for those highlight plays which can really drag the body down over time. The history of baseball is littered with outfielders who made one dive too many. Sadly.
Obviously, the same also applies to OAA (Outs Above Average). We may just be looking at a defensive value creep among the top tier that is making the others seems worse than they are.
I’m not sure if Grisham should sign a long-term deal so he can bet on himself for another year. Maybe a three-year with an op-out after one. His surge isn’t a fluke and he’s made swing decisions to be more aggressive early in the pitch count. I’d expect next season that his homerun rate will drop a little with an increase of walks.
YBC I don’t think his offensive output is as much a fluke as it is batting in front of Judge.
I agree w both of y’all. It’s interesting as a baseball fan seeing if someone can hold up w Yankee pedigree, media, and size of New York. They both excelled and I assume they both want to stay in pinstripes
Typically batting infront of the best hitters is helpful because it leads to more fastballs, as the pitcher doesn’t want to walk the guy in front of Judge. But in 2025 Grisham actually saw fewer fastballs than he did in 2024 (56% to 63.8%; FB+CT+SI).
His underlying metrics seem pretty similar with the only noticeable differences being that he has more pitches down in the zone and significantly more line drives, in 2025. But line drive% has a ton of volatility.
I think most of the difference was luck with the way pitchers chose to pitch him being a slight factor. That said, he seemed to be quite unlucky in 2024 given the peripherals, so I wouldn’t count on him repeating his 2025 but would feel confident a repeat of 2024 is much less likely.
Yeah, they always say that it’s a significant advantage due to seeing more fastballs, but it never seems to be as much of an advantage in real life as it is theoretically thought to be.
How much of an increase in fastball rates do batters hitting directly in front of offensive superstars actually see? Then how much of an offensive advantage does such an increased rate of fastballs actually provide for those hitters? Maybe someone on Fangraphs can look into that?
Mets desperately need a competent center fielder. Record with even Taylor playing show as much. Who do they get to improve upon Taylor? Maybe trade?
Tough position to fill right now. Maybe a stop gap until Benge is ready? Assuming he pans out in center.
Myles Straw could probably be had in a trade without giving up too much. EXCELLENT defensive CF, but it’s very difficult to predict what you’ll get at the plate. Had a surprisingly good year at the plate in TOR, but just prior to that he stunk it up for 3 years in CLE and AAA.
Hopeless White Sox still hoping for Robert’s rebound, he’s not worth even half of the option.
It’s wild to me they didn’t trade him. White Sox and Rockies can’t get out of their own way.
I can’t believe they are still asking for a huge price when he has hit around .200 for 2 years now
White Sox could still get a decent return if they eat part of Robert salary. Thin market could fair well for them
fare well
CWS have been that guy who has pumped millions into a slot machine and and can’t tear himself away because he’s sure it’s bound to pay out any minute now. Now the question becomes: do they pick up his $20M option for ‘27 even if he has a middling year at the plate in ‘26?
I’d take the QO if I’m Grisham, he gets a huge payday and a chance to bet on himself for a better deal next year. I don’t think he’d get more than 3/45 or 4/60 with a QO attached and a short track record but another year of mashing might set him up for 80+ and at 22 for one year he’s making more than he would on a free agent deal unless someone gets real stupid (a real possibility) but as a Yankees fan I say thank you very much, hope he turns down the QO and watch him ride off into the sunset to play for the Phillies or Mets.
If the Yankees show any interest at all in having Bellinger back, he’d be a sap to leave.the cozy confines of that right field porch. His numbers will suffer without it.
That said, if that hole in his swing that plagued him during the last few years of his stay in LA, manages to find his bat again, it’ll be ugly no matter where he plays.
He’s made efforts to shorten up his swing with two strikes and the results have shown that.
Such a weak class
Any thoughts on how the potential work stoppage could potentially hamper player’s efforts to secure multi year deals?
The Yankees should bring them both back. Move Bellinger to first base and sign someone to play the outfield.
Not that it makes any difference, but the decision on Luis Robert is really a $20M decision not $18M, because there are 2 option years. If they don’t exercise the first option this year, they’ll only owe him $2M, while if they do exercise it, they will owe him $22M total — $20M for 2026 plus at least another $2M buy-out if his 2027 option is declined.
The electricity Harrison Bader brought to the Phillies was fun for the team and the fans. This is a very low-key, and sometimes boring team led by their manager. They need a guy like this. And considering their admission, they need more right handed bats they would be insane not to offer Harrison Bader 2/26 with a third year option. Or 3/36. A bargain for a gold glove quality outfielder.
Someone queued up John Fogerty when reading this.