MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.
Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief
Top Group
- Dylan Cease (30)
Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).
The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.
All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.
The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.
- Tatsuya Imai (28)*
Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.
Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.
- Ranger Suárez (30)
Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.
The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.
- Framber Valdez (32)
Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.
Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.
That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.
Second Tier
- Shane Bieber (31)
Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.
The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.
Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
- Zac Gallen (30)
Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.
- Lucas Giolito (30)
Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.
A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.
Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.
- Michael King (31)
King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.
The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.
King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.
- Brandon Woodruff (33)
On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.
The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.
Effective Late-Career Arms
- Chris Bassitt (37)
Bassitt has been a steady, durable mid-rotation arm for the past six seasons. That includes a 3.89 ERA in 100 appearances over his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. He allowed just under four earned runs per nine across 170 1/3 innings during the regular season. Bassitt missed the Division Series with lower back tightness but returned for the ALCS roster. He tossed 2 2/3 perfect frames with three strikeouts in a setup capacity. He’ll be limited to a two-year deal at age 37 but could secure more than $15MM annually. The Blue Jays cannot make him a qualifying offer, as he received one from the Mets after the 2022 season.
- Merrill Kelly (37)
Kelly is probably in a similar contractual range as Bassitt, though he could command a few million dollars more on an annual basis. He’s a rock solid #3 starter coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Kelly posted solid strikeout (22.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates despite sitting around 92 MPH with his fastball. He has rebounded brilliantly from 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. A shoulder strain cost him a few months last season, but he stayed healthy this year and has reached 30+ starts in three of the past four seasons. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for the qualifying offer.
- Max Scherzer (41)
Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays has had mixed results. A recurring nerve injury in his right thumb sent him to the injured list after one start. Scherzer was out until late June. He returned to post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The strikeout and walk profile remains solid, but he gave up more than two home runs per nine innings. Scherzer was a healthy scratch in the ALDS but returned to the roster for the Championship Series. He went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a Game 4 start to pick up the win and even the ALCS at two games apiece. One could argue that start alone justified the signing even if Scherzer’s regular season was surely frustrating for the future Hall of Famer and the Blue Jays alike. He’ll get another one-year deal but might land in the $10-12MM range this time.
- Justin Verlander (43)
Verlander signed a one-year, $15MM with the Giants last winter. He was coming off a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts that had gotten him left off Houston’s playoff roster. Verlander’s tenure in San Francisco started slowly, as he posted a 4.70 ERA through the All-Star Break. He turned in a 2.99 mark with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the second half. His fastball still lands around 94 MPH on average as he enters his age-43 season. Verlander isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he’s a capable mid-rotation performer whose wealth of experience is surely welcome for younger pitching staffs. He’ll sign another one-year deal that could approach $20MM.
Contractual Options
- Jack Flaherty (30)
Flaherty is weighing a $20MM player option on his deal with the Tigers. He’s coming off a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. It’s the second time in the past three years that Flaherty allowed nearly five earned runs per nine innings. He has had issues keeping the ball in the yard in consecutive seasons. While that might point towards him opting in, there’s a good chance he tests the market anyway based on his youth and swing-and-miss potential.
The righty punched out 27.6% of opponents behind a strong 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’d fanned nearly 30% of batters faced last season. He’s 13th in MLB with 382 strikeouts over the past two seasons. Flaherty has also avoided the injured list in three straight years despite reports that the Yankees pulled out of a 2024 deadline deal after flagging something in his medicals. The combination of durability and swing-and-miss upside might get him a three- or four-year contract. If Flaherty opts out, the Tigers would need to decide whether to issue a qualifying offer.
- Shota Imanaga (32)
The Cubs have a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga’s services. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.
The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this year. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.
That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons.
- John Means (33)
Cleveland signed Means to a one-year deal with a $6MM club option that could climb to $7.5MM based on next year’s innings totals. He was coming off his second UCL surgery in three years and spent all of this season rehabbing.
- Freddy Peralta (30)
Peralta will not be a free agent. The Brewers are going to exercise an $8MM option. They’ll entertain trade possibilities but could hold their ace for his final season of club control after advancing to the NLCS.
- Colin Rea (35)
The Cubs hold a $6MM option on Rea that comes with a $750K buyout. That’s a reasonable price for a reliable swingman who turned in a 3.95 ERA over 159 1/3 innings this past season. If the Cubs surprisingly cut Rea loose, he should be able to find a similar contract on the open market.
- Jose Urquidy (31)
The Tigers guaranteed Urquidy $1MM as he completed rehab from Tommy John surgery. He made two late-season relief appearances. They can bring him back on a $4MM option that could climb to $7MM based on escalators.
Middle/Back of the Rotation
- Adrian Houser (33)
Houser was on a minor league deal with the Rangers at the beginning of this year. He opted out and signed a big league deal with the White Sox in late May. Houser went on an excellent two-month run in Chicago, turning in a 2.10 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. That was enough to make him a legitimate deadline trade chip, as they sent him to the Rays for a three-player return headlined by former top prospect Curtis Mead. The magic wore off after the deal, as Houser struggled to a 4.79 ERA in 56 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay.
Middling finish aside, the righty is in much better position than he was at this time last winter. Houser is a lock for a big league deal and could get two years to pitch in a swing role. He doesn’t miss many bats but gets a lot of ground-balls behind a sinker that sits north of 95 MPH on average.
- Zack Littell (30)
Littell has gone from nondescript middle reliever to viable fourth starter since the Rays built him up halfway through the 2023 season. He tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings this year and has managed consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. He pounds the strike zone but has fringe stuff that leads to middling strikeout rates and a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more home runs than Littell’s 36 this year.
The Reds nevertheless valued Littell’s durability and strike-throwing enough to give up a legitimate pitching prospect (Adam Serwinowski) to acquire him at the deadline. Littell just turned 30 and should be able to pull a multi-year deal. There’s a chance he gets a three-year contract from a team that wants to lock in some stability at the back of the staff.
- Tyler Mahle (31)
Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers this year. However, he only struck out 19.1% of opponents while working with less impressive stuff than he showed early in his career with the Reds. Mahle averages 92 MPH after sitting 93-94 a few years ago. The drop-off is presumably tied to his history of arm injuries, which continued this year.
Mahle suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. Shoulder issues had prematurely ended his season in both 2022 and ’24, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. Mahle technically finished this season healthy for the first time in four years, as he was able to return to make two starts in September. He has only made 51 appearances over the past four years and might be limited to one-year deals as a result.
- Nick Martinez (35)
Martinez was last offseason’s most surprising qualifying offer recipient. Not coincidentally, he was the only player to accept the QO and play out the season on a $21.05MM salary. The veteran swingman spent most of the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, working to a 4.45 ERA across 165 2/3 innings. His 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since he returned to MLB four years ago. Martinez doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he has plus control and reliably stays off barrels.
The lack of swing-and-miss and Martinez’s age could cap him at one year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds another two-year contract. Teams have valued his willingness to bounce between the rotation and bullpen at any point within the season. Martinez has also been ultra durable, avoiding the injured list entirely since his MLB comeback in 2022.
NPB/KBO fliers
- Foster Griffin (30)
Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower body. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.
- Cody Ponce (32)
Ponce is pitching with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles this year. It’s possible he explores MLB opportunities once the offseason begins. Ponce posted a near-6.00 ERA over 20 big league appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. He spent the next three seasons pitching to mediocre results in Japan before signing in Korea. Ponce had a phenomenal KBO season, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 36% of opponents. It’s an even better season than Erick Fedde had when he won the KBO MVP award in 2023.
Fedde parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. Ponce is a year older but is a former second-round pick whose stuff has ticked up in Korea. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke credited Ponce with a mid-90s fastball to headline a four-pitch mix. It’s not out of the question that he gets a multi-year deal that approaches or exceeds the Fedde contract.
- Kona Takahashi (29)*
The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahashi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.
Reclamation/Swing Types
- Walker Buehler (31)
The Red Sox signed Buehler to a $21.05MM free agent deal last offseason. They ignored his terrible regular season results and placed a lot of emphasis on his two good outings in the World Series. That predictably didn’t work out, and they ended up releasing him by the end of August. Buehler managed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball after signing with the Phillies for the season’s final couple weeks, though that came with an 8:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season with an ERA just under 5.00 with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Buehler still has a 94 MPH fastball and a track record that should get him a big league deal at a much lower salary than he made this past season. Some teams could be intrigued to see if he can find a new gear in the bullpen, but Buehler may prefer to sign with a club that’ll offer a rotation opportunity.
- Griffin Canning (30)
Canning was one of the Mets’ more reliable starters early in the season, turning in a 3.77 ERA behind a 51% ground-ball rate over 16 starts. Unfortunately, he ruptured his right Achilles against the Braves at the end of June. The Mets never released a specific timeline beyond the obvious news that he was headed for season-ending surgery. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, which would be nine months removed from the injury. Canning could try for a cheap, slightly backloaded two-year deal.
- Nestor Cortes (31)
Cortes, an All-Star with the Yankees in 2022, has battled forearm issues for the past two seasons. He only made eight starts (with rough results) between the Brewers and Padres this year. Cortes finished the season on the injured list and underwent surgery that threatens his availability for 2026. He’s probably looking at a one-year guarantee with a ’27 club option so a signing team can gauge his recovery.
- Zach Eflin (32)
Eflin looked good over three starts before suffering a lat strain. He missed a month, then was rocked for a 7.16 ERA over nine starts before returning to the injured list with a back issue. He came back in late July, started twice more, and was shut back down. Eflin underwent season-ending back surgery in August. The Orioles announced that the recovery could take anywhere from four to eight months, so it’s not a given that he’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.
- Jon Gray (34)
Gray pitched six times this year, all in relief. He finished the season on the injured list and was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s unclear if he’ll require surgery that could cost him most of the ’26 campaign.
- Germán Márquez (31)
Márquez once overcame the challenges of pitching in Colorado to post upper mid-rotation numbers. That hasn’t been the case since he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2023-24 seasons. The righty was bombed for a 6.70 ERA with a career-low 14% strikeout rate this year. He pitched just as poorly on the road as he did at Coors Field. Márquez still has a 95 MPH heater, so perhaps he’ll find a cheap big league deal from a team that thinks he’s salvageable with some repertoire changes.
- Dustin May (28)
Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, May underwent a pair of significant elbow surgeries early in his career. He missed all of last year after requiring emergency esophageal surgery following a fluky but life-threatening throat rupture when a piece of lettuce got stuck in his throat. May thankfully was able to return to the mound this year and managed a career-high 132 1/3 innings across 25 appearances. He posted a near-5.00 ERA and ended the season on the shelf with elbow neuritis.
- Jordan Montgomery (33)
Montgomery gave up a 6.23 ERA over 25 appearances during his first season with the Diamondbacks. He was blasted publicly by owner Ken Kendrick last winter, then blew out in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery. Arizona dumped part of his contract on the Brewers at the deadline but he’ll probably look for a fresh start as a free agent. If he’s expected back in June or July, he could get a big league deal as a buy-low flier.
- Michael Soroka (28)
Soroka has flashed intriguing swing-and-miss stuff but has yet to show that he can hold up as a starter. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents over 16 starts with the Nationals. His velocity wilted as the deadline approached. The Cubs looked past that and acquired him, but Soroka exited his team debut with a shoulder strain. He returned in mid-September as a reliever and finished the season with a 4.52 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.
Depth/Innings Eaters
- Tyler Anderson (36)
Anderson wrapped up his three-year, $39MM free agent contract with the Angels by turning in a 4.56 ERA across 26 starts. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine over his three seasons in Anaheim. The southpaw struck out only 17.5% of opponents while averaging 89 MPH on his fastball. He missed the final month with an oblique strain and is likely looking at a one-year deal in the $3-5MM range.
- Aaron Civale (31)
In a season divided between three teams, Civale turned in a 4.85 ERA across 102 innings. He pitched poorly as a starter with both Milwaukee and the White Sox but found some late-season success out of the bullpen with the Cubs.
- Patrick Corbin (36)
Corbin took the ball 31 times and provided the Rangers 155 1/3 innings on a $1.1MM free agent deal. He managed decent results early in the season but a rough last two months left him with a 4.40 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. It’s a better season than he had with the Nationals in 2024, so he could earn a boost to a $3-4MM salary if he comes back for his age-36 season.
- Kyle Hendricks (36)
Hendricks was noncommittal on whether he planned to continue pitching. The soft-tossing sinkerballer is coming off a 4.76 ERA over 164 2/3 innings for the Angels on a $2.5MM free agent deal.
- Michael Lorenzen (34)
Lorenzen started 26 of 27 appearances for the Royals this past season. He worked to a 4.64 ERA with a league average 21% strikeout rate and a solid 6.4% walk percentage. Lorenzen should fare the best of the pitchers in this tier because he sits around 94 MPH and missed bats at a near league average clip.
- Miles Mikolas (37)
Mikolas played out his final season in St. Louis as an innings-eating fifth starter. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 31 appearances. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s a durable strike-thrower who doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of home runs.
- Chris Paddack (30)
Paddack was sitting on a 4.95 ERA in 21 starts when the Twins traded him to Detroit at the deadline. The buy-low move for the Tigers busted, as the righty was pushed out of the rotation after five starts. He finished the regular season in relief and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Paddack ended the year with a 5.35 ERA and a career-worst 16.7% strikeout rate in 158 innings.
- Martín Pérez (35)
Pérez managed a solid 3.54 ERA over 56 innings for the White Sox on a one-year deal. Injuries kept him from soaking up the innings that the Sox had wanted, though. Pérez missed a few months with a flexor issue and landed back on the shelf in September with a shoulder strain.
- Jose Quintana (37)
Quintana made 24 starts and worked to a 3.96 ERA over 131 2/3 innings for the Brewers. He’s a capable back-end starter but didn’t find much interest last offseason, when he was coming off a 3.75 mark in 31 starts for the Mets. Another one-year deal between $4-6MM seems likely.
- Tomoyuki Sugano (36)
Sugano’s first season in the U.S. was a disappointment. The former NPB star took the ball 30 times but gave up a 4.64 ERA while striking out fewer than 16% of opponents. He throws strikes but doesn’t have the stuff he did at his peak in Japan. Sugano isn’t going to approach last winter’s $15MM guarantee on a one-year deal this time around.
Potential Minor League Deals
- Paul Blackburn (32)
- Carlos Carrasco (39)
- Alex Cobb (38)
- Nabil Crismatt (31)
- Anthony DeSclafani (36)
- Erick Fedde (33)
- Austin Gomber (32)
- Kyle Hart (33) ^
- Andrew Heaney (35)
- Kenta Maeda (38) **
- Triston McKenzie (28)
- Wade Miley (39)
- Cal Quantrill (31)
- Marcus Stroman (35)
- José Ureña (34)
- Bryse Wilson (28)
- Ryan Yarbrough (34)
Note: Charlie Morton is technically a free agent. It’s widely expected that he’ll retire after signing a ceremonial deal to make a final appearance with the Braves on the last day of the regular season. He has yet to make an official announcement, however.
* Expected to be made available via posting system
^ Assumes buyout of club option
** Plans to pitch in Japan in 2026
Framber is a head case. Anyone giving him 5/150 is crazy.
Never affected his performance before, even if it’s true.
That is completely false. If you get in his head early he throws BP. Dude is great for about 90% of his starts but then gets lit up for about a month every season. It 100% affects his performance. Will be hard to replicate the innings he provides, though.
Preller will be licking his chops as this actually looks to be a pretty decent offseason for pitching acquisition depth. If the Pads do not retain Cease and/or King (pretty good chance they won’t retain either), AJ will likely take two-three fliers on reclamation/spring training invite projects, try to trade for Peralta from MIL, bring Martinez back, sign one of the KBO/NPB guys and go hard for Woodruff or Suárez. Theoretically, Musgrove comes back early 2026 but think Darvish could just straight up retire. Also think (and probably a long-term mistake but…) the team tries to convert Morejon or Miller into a starter.
@diphthong
Padres don’t have the farm to acquire Freddy Peralta. The Brewers will want BL ready prospects/BL talent or a massive overpay of prospects, neither of which I see happening.
Woodruff can probably be had on a 4-5 year $90-$110M deal.
Dip – I’d say all of those scenarios are possible. As for the conversion of M and M – probably depends more on how the first few scenarios play out.
I’m going with King comes back on an option deal and AJ signs at least 1 short term 3/4 rotation guy (Merrill maybe) and yes, give me D May and someone similar for high end reclamation project and call it done.
If Yu retires, another mid guy.
If stuff falls thru, and since he wants it apparently, Mason gets a shot to stretch out and Morejon goes to closer.
Darvish has 3 years left on his deal which was signed recently. There is no way he retires.
Carlos – you may not follow Yu and may just be using typical player / money logic.
He actually said when he signed it thst he probably wouldn’t play it out. He has walked away from paychecks to spend time with family. His mindset is not that if the typical player at this point in his career.
I very much hope he is healthy in 2026 and desires to play but that will be up to him.
Padres have blue, er, I mean, dead balls…
Couldn’t resist, sorry lol
Do what you gotta do. As a Dodgers fan living in San Diego for the better part of four decades, the Pads have been keeping it interesting (for the most part) since Preller took over and the pressure is definitely on to maintain a squad that can challenge for a postseason berth. SD no longer (under this current regime) has the luxury of going all in on a “trust the process” rebuild of 3-5 years. Preller is in a very difficult position at being extremely good at what he does. Churning the roster and dismissing the long-term youth movement for (relatively or somewhat) proven vets overlaying the set pieces without the totally opposing extremes of the Mets/Dodgers/Yankees and Marlins/Guardians/Pirates really places him in a narrow channel of success/failure.
It’s so crazy how quickly Fedde went from a 5.6 WAR starter back to a minor league candidate.
Thinking the same on Heaney after his resurgence a couple of years ago.
O’s need to be in on one of those top guys and probably at least one other second tier pitcher. Whether it be free agent or trade, you can’t just hope that folks are going to be healthy all the way through the season or that the ones coming back from injury will be just as good as they were before said injuries. The hitting for sure is the biggest sticking point for me but after watching all of the injuries to the pitching staff as well and not preparing for that potentially happening during the offseason, you really can’t have enough quality pitching nowadays.
I’d like to see the O’s land Verlander, just because.
Unfortunately, I doubt they’re going to be able to afford it. The free agent pitching market went bonkers last offseason, and IMO there’s less talent available this year. That’ll likely drive prices up.
The Orioles are really in a tough position. Financially, they can’t compete with the Yankees and Blue Jays, unless Rubenstein digs into his own pocket and accepts short term financial losses in the hope that playoff/WS appearances will result, and help recoup his investment in the long run. Without the portion of the Nats media rights they controlled, the O’s will generate much less revenue in 2026 than they have in the past couple decades, The Baltimore market isn’t a “worse” market for baseball of course, it’s just smaller.
Having written all that, be careful what you wish for. A bad mistake in free agency can, and often does, “cost” a small/midsize market team more than teams like the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, Those teams can afford to “miss” in free agency. A team like the O’s, with less money to begin with, really can’t. The O’s also have to keep in mind how much they’ll eventually have to spend to keep their young “core” in Baltimore,
With arbitration projections, the O’s have about $80M committed to next year’s payroll. No excuse not to spend.
Good excuses not to spend are as follows, Yankees with their rotation next year will be DEADLY, Red Sox still look to be on a upward trajectory, Blue jays could be big spenders + have most of lineup and bullpen back next year and Tampa probably gonna Tampa
None at all. They will be in the Top 3 or 4 in FA spending. Over $100m to spend.
Lots and lots of possibilities …..
See now….IF the Tigers trade for Skenes….
Most of these guys PAY THE TIGERS to play on the team….
Illich could make a lot of money!
Gerrit Cole enters the chat
Then “Nutting” comes to mind
Can anyone even begin to imagine Imai ending up anywhere than in L.A.?
Just rename them the Tokyo dodgers already
Not all Japanese players go to the Dodgers.
I don’t care if these are jokes or not, but not even Cubans or Venezuelans got this amount of stereotyping.
I don’t disagree but you have to find a new way to phrase it, you’re gonna get blocked
Neither do Japanese players. Duh!
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki.
Chicago Cubs
Shōta Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki.
Other teams
Boston Red Sox: Masataka Yoshida
Los Angeles Angels: Yusei Kikuchi
New York Mets: Kodai Senga
Detroit Tigers: Kenta Maeda
San Diego Padres: Yū Darvish and Yūki Matsui
It’s not the Japanese players that are the problem, it’s the fact the forth largest economy in the world (Japan) is part of the dodgers fan base. Thats an unfair advantage that allows them to sign players like Ohtani to these absurd contracts. LA would already be ranked 20th if it was a sovereign nation so the dodgers have the 4th and 20th largest economies as their base.
MLB parity is a complete joke. They to change the rules for foreign players coming state side who sign major league deals, implement a foreign draft and implement a salary cap. They never will, and large market teams will always have an advantage and we have seen that over last several seasons get worse and worse. Then what the dodgers (fair play dodgers) are exploiting is the most unfair advantage in modern sports history
The stereotypes is about the Dodgers, not the players.
Another Dodgers Fan
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki.
================
You listed 11 Japanese players, and 27..3% of them play for LAD, who represents only 3.3% of the teams.
That’s why everyone thinks Japanese players tend to go to LA, which they do, and which I have no issue with.
Big whiffa
They to change the rules for foreign players coming state side who sign major league deals, implement a foreign draft and implement a salary cap.
========================
The union will never allow a cap, even if it might be in their best interests.
And I am not sure why an American company should be able to cap the salaries of foreign workers.
Absolutely correct. But criticizing corporate stereotypes is not what certain people like to do. And that’s in addition to the stupid idea that no one should trash talk other teams.
There are two teams with two Japanese players. Are they almost as bad as your say the Dodgers are?
What happens when they get to three or four and the dodgers stay at three? Will you complain about those teams as well?
Consistently is important if you’re going to make an argument like this.
BigWhiffa
Why should it be up to the players to correct a market imbalance?
Maybe the owners should share revenue.
And if California was a country, it would have the 4th largest economy in the world, and outside of the Bay Area, the Dodgers media market is tapped in throughout
Not to burst your bubble but Yu and Kenta both played for dodgers
They also played for other teams. Your point?
Player and initial teams played for:
Yu Darvish – Rangers
Ichiro Suzuki – Mariners
Hideki Matsui – Yankees
Masahiro Tanaka – Yankees
Shohei Ohtani – Angels
Hideo Nomo – Dodgers
Koji Uehara – Orioles
Kenta Maeda – Dodgers
Shota Imanaga – Cubs
Yuki Matsui – Padres
And many many more.
Dodgers took the chances early on Japanese players. So did the Mariners with Ichiro and the Cubs with a lot of players they brought over. Which is exactly why Japanese players give them more consideration in general.
How far back do you want to go back with this? Are you telling me the Cubs and Mariners are taking advantage of the Japanese market?
You seem a little defensive there DodgersFan.
I think it’s the recent trend that most are responding to.
It makes sense that Japanese players would prefer the West Coast – that flight is long enough as is. But also that games can be more easily followed by Japanese fans and elevating the players’ Japanese sponsorship opportunities (see Ohtani e.g.). Sasaki is a unique exception but over a $ billion for the prior 2 guys is driving the perception. Despite it likely being a good business decision.
I’m not being defensive. If someone is going to try and use logic for their argument, then the logic needs to be applied consistently.
My listing Japanese players and their initial teams was to show how their logic and argument, when applied consistently, falls apart.
@Another. I think you’re making good sense
talk about the Mariners unfair advantage in the early 2000s then wahh wahh
I’d honestly go after a few of these guys before Dylan Cease.
I find the articles ordering of the pitchers a bit odd.
Cease is listed first, while Bieber, for example, is listed not just afterwards, but actually in the next tier down.
Bieber is coming back from TJ but has already shown decent form and I imagine most GM’s would expect him to be back to full form next season.
Other than his rookie season, Bieber has finished every year with an ERA below 4.
Cease finished 3 of the last 6 seasons with an ERA over 4 and a 4th season where he had a 3.91.
To me, Bieber is more of a number 2, while Cease, most years, is more of a mid to back rotation piece.
Over the past 5 years this is where Cease ranks amongst MLB starters:
20.6 fWAR – 4th
162 GS – 1st
1106 K’s – 1st
with a 3.72 era and 3.37 FIP
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
Bieber had been showing signs of decline in 2022 and 2023 before he blew his arm out in 2024. Cease’s stuff is light years better than Bieber at this point.
Bieber has some very nice MLB seasons under his belt but preferring Bieber to Cease today reminds me a whole lot of the Wheeler v. Mad Bum free agency argument. People actually thought MadBum was the better signing when he was clearly a pitcher in decline.
I think Bieber will be fine—-but he’s a mid rotation piece at his best at this point. As long as he’s paid as such—-I wouldn’t have a problem with my team adding him.
padrepapi
with a 3.72 era and 3.37 FIP
===========================
That dichotomy will be an issue. A one year variance like that can be ignored. Being 79th in ERA still warrants looking into.
As a RS fan, I am slowly talking myself into Cease, partly because that ERA will scare away some bidders. But in the back of mind, I am still asking ‘what if that’s his ERA for the next 5 years?’.
Reading and comprehension can be difficult for some….bless there hearts
Yankees fan in Chicago
Reading and comprehension can be difficult for some….bless there hearts
=======================
“There” hearts? In an insult over reading and comprehension? I love a little ironing in the morning.
The 3.72 era is 61st out of 167 qualified starters over the past 5 years (the link included qualified relievers as well). The threshold is 300 IP so that’s even better considering he has 887 IP over that time since it’s lumping him with guys who have pitched a fractional amount compared to him. His xERA is 3.42 which is 24th out of those 167.
His ERA- is 90. As comparison that’s better than guys like Joe Ryan (92), Logan Gilbert (92), and George Kirby (94).
Here are what opponents have hit off Cease these past 5 years:
2021: .223/.306/.364, 31.9 k%
2022: .190/.278/.306, 30.4 k%
2023: .250/.332/.405, 27.3 k%
2024: .200/.269/.332, 29.4 k%
2025: .239/.318/.399, 29.8 k%
His opponent average of .218 is the same as Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragan, which is 23rd out of 167. His 11.26 k/9 is 8th sandwiched between Chris Sale and Hunter Greene. His HR/9 of .96 ranks 29th out of 167.
Add in his top tier durability (162 starts over 5 years) and he’s a very good and valuable pitcher. He’d be great fit for the Red Sox to pair with Crochet.
Ironing?
I’ve used that 100 times over the years instead of ‘irony’, and you’re the first one that noticed, or at least cared to say something.
I’m a caring kind of a guy Joe …I don’t like to assume anything that’s why I asked . I haven’t been commenting on this site for awhile. I have read a lot of your comments and agree with a majority of what you have to say.
I’ll take Cease over Bieber. He doesn’t miss any starts and has a very good FIP. His homerun, strikeout, and walk rates are very consistent.
I don’t necessarily disagree, but Bieber is extremely consistent. Even with his return this year, only one game with over 3 ERs, in 7 GS. With the bonus of possibly being half the total cost.
I would like to think the Yankees will go all in on Cease. YBC what pitchers do you think the Yankees will be going to try to sign?
Hard to imagine this as the Yanks priority at this particular point. 3 top end starters controlled for a few years, Gil for 3, Schlittler for 6, and Schmidt for another after rehabbing for most or all of ‘26. Plus a few more decent prospects already at AA.
I might think a depth guy / swingman could fit given Rodon and Cole could each miss a month or 2 to start the year.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see them bring Yarbrough back – think he likely gets better than a minors deal. But there are choices in the group that fits that role.
@Yankees fan in Chicago
I don’t think they will. They may need someone to fill in for Cole to start the season until he’s ready. Probably someone like a Yarbrough type but I don’t see them spending resources on starting pitching.
YBC thanks . As we are seeing with dodgers you can never have enough good pitching but we already know the dodgers are on a whole other level of spending that I know the Yankees could match but prefer not to . It’s hard to knock Stienbrener and Cash but I miss George’s style in the sense of go out and spend more because winning fixes everything and they will make plenty of money when winning championships . Hopefully I’m making sense guys .
I don’t care much one way or the other, but let’s just say, as a RS fan, I am glad that the NYY now have to compete with LAD, Philly and the NYMs for the expensive FAs.
I think the players are listed alphabetically within each tier, not by who is perceived by mlbtr as best pitcher. But I have to wonder how Cease can be in tier one at this point. K-rate and durability sway opinion I guess
Here are the pitchers who has faced the most batters over the past 5 years and how their opponents fared:
Logan Webb .250/.295/.361 (.656), 8.5 k/9
Kevin Gausman .234/.284/.375 (.659) 9.9 k/9
Jose Berrios .248/.308/.415 (.723), 8.2 k/9
Dylan Cease .220/.301/.360 (.661), 11.3 k/9
Framber Valdez .226/.298/.337 (.635), 8.7 k/9
Being durable and effective are two of the most important traits for a starter. Nothing to sway there.
It’s been a while since Cease was ace material. I like him personally (beekeeper, hiker, into yoga etc…), but hope my Padres don’t pay what he’ll be demanding
Ranger over Framber
King over Cease
Quintana over Soroka
Cobb was contemplating retirement last off season before the Tigers came calling. With $15M more in his pocket after a lost season, he’ll retire as well.
If the Tigers trade Skhbal…BIG IF…and let Flaherty go, they are going to need to go get some arms. Like trade for Peralta or sign Valdez type things plus a larger secondary piece like Woodruff. Even if they don’t trade Skubal and keep Flaherty they will need one or two arms…JV time!
Mize, Olson, Melton is a decent 3-5 but no Skubal means at least two solid starters are needed. At least.
I can’t see Harris pulling the trigger on a Skubal trade but if he does there better be a Hunter Greene type player in the return plus a few good starters signed if they still want to make the playoffs.
Motor do you truly think tigers make Skubal available? If so it would cost the team trying to acquire Skubal so much I wouldn’t even know where to start to figure out what it would take to get that kind of deal
Honestly I think Harris will hold onto him and try hard to sign him, but if someone offered a godfather deal like what Washington got for Soto I would hope they would at least consider it. Prospects are such a crap shoot though. He’d be foolish not to at least listen. Cheers dude
As a Dodgers fan, i would love to see Tatsuya Imai join the Dodgers, but thats probably wouldnt happen since the Mets will try to outbid other teams offer, especially for a starting pitcher. And they probably would gave Imai a super overprice offer like the Giants did with Jung Ho Lee. No offense to Mr Lee, but, he didnt worth the 113M 6 years price with that kind output.
And, how about the Cuban player that play for Softbank Hawks, Livan Moinelo? Can he play for MLB teams?
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=moi…
Small frame (5’10 154lbs) but delivered good result in NPB.
2024 25 GS 163 innings 1.88 ERA (11-5)
2025 24 GS 167 innings 1.56 ERA (12-3)
It’s an interesting crop. Many at one point or another had been an elite starter but nearly all have suffered from inconsistency, age or injuries.
I still think King gets more years overall.
I think King will be viewed as the Byron Buxton of pitchers- incredibly high upside when he’s healthy, if he stays healthy for most of a season, but his injury history and innings limits need to be factored into it.
Which is why I think a team will try to talk him into or King will have in mind a contract that is long and relatively modest.
If in a perfect world he’s one of those guys who gets 5 years/$200M or 6 years/$225M or something and in a world where everybody is super hesitant, he’d get 1 year/$35M or 2 years/$65M w/ an opt out, etc. I think the true happy medium would be like 4 years/$103M w/ a $37M club option vs a $16.5M player option that could escalate to $27.5M or something w/ some opt outs.
My guess is king is going to get a bigger deal than most people think. His nerve injury I don’t think will scare teams off. His knee injury doesn’t sound like a big deal. The padres rushed back to try and get him ready for the postseason. He never got a chance to build back up.
His stuff is as good or better than anyone on this list. He is still young enough to get a 5/6 year deal. I think there will be a team or two willing to take a chance on his stuff while overlooking his injuries.
I’m gonna guess a 5 year 150m range contract for him. Probably out of the padres price range.
Teams like the Mets, Braves, giants, cubs, Red Sox, jays as potential suitors in that price range. If his market falls below those numbers then a number of other teams like the Padres will be in the mix.
I doubt the Mets are going to be team that throws caution to the wind and give King that kind of deal after taking him deep 4 times on 9/16. Stearns seems to be very conservative when it comes to giving out big long-term deals to pitchers and I don’t see King being the guy that gets him to change.
He’s missed big chunks of 3 of the past 5 seasons:
2025 – 66 games nerve issue/shoulder inflammation & 23 games for knee inflammation
2022 – 67 regular season games and all 9 playoff games with an elbow fracture
2021 – missed 57 games with a finger injury
I’m not sure if there has ever been a pitcher more primed for the 2 or 3 year deal with an opt-out after a season than Michael King today.
I wouldn’t completely rule out the Brewers and Woodruff both accepting the mutual option/Woody accepting the QO/agreeing to some kind of extension. While I don’t think it’ll happen (Brewers aren’t comfortable paying pitchers that much), here’s my rationale:
The QO is a little over $22 million. Woodruff’s mutual option is for $20 million with a $10 million buyout. With a very unproven staff outside of Freddy Peralta, of course the Brewers would want Woody back. He’s gonna get $10 million regardless, they might as well exercise their end and keep him another year for an extra $10 million unless they feel that money can be better spent elsewhere, but I can also see them wanting that extra $10 million plus draft pick compensation.
Woodruff’s position is a little more cumbersome. He showed down the stretch that he still has his stuff and can be a high end pitcher, but he has injury and durability concerns, he’ll be 33 come the spring and if he rejects the qualifying offer, the compensation attached to him might put some teams off and hurt his market a bit. What’s more, if the Brewers accept the option but he rejects it but accepts the QO, he’ll be getting $32 million in 2026 ($10 million from the buyout + $22 million from the QO). Not a small chunk of change plus he could go into next offseason free from being tendered a QO again.
Nice synapsis. If Flaherty can land 2/35 with escalators and a player option coming off a middling year in which the Yankees nixed a trade for him off a failed physical ~ Brandon Woodruff should clear $50m in total value with an opt-out and a $10m check from Milwaukee for that declined mutual option.
Woodruff will get a ridiculous offer he can’t refuse from the Giants or BoSox or Cubbies or D-Backs or Atlanta or (either team in) New York and the Brew Crew won’t miss a beat…unless they lose both Woodruff and Peralta (in a trade) which is unlikely. MIL will likely keep the more affordable of the two-Peralta.
Since most free agents are over paid, I think most teams will try and make trades first to get better value!
Overpaid? Blame the GMs
Very few free agents are overpaid. You’re acquiring talent without the added acquisition cost of trading players, which has a value.
There is really no such thing as ‘overpaid’ in a free economy. You are worth whatever someone thinks you are worth. And different teams have different standards of that value. IMHO, someone like Alonso is worth more to the RS than he would be to LAD (on the high end) or to Sincy (on the low end).
The Cubs can afford to sign anybody at the top of this list. They can pay them their going rate and still be under the Tax providing Tucker walks as expected. Ricketts has a phobia about the CBA though and I fear it’s more about the years more than the money. He should just go see a shrink because there will be a CBA signed but maybe not as soon a he would like. Now is the time to strike with what they’ve got coming( Wiggins), What they might be losing in 2027( Boyd, Taillon) and whatever they do with Imanaga. Like every smart poster here says, There is no such thing as too much pitching. Grab it while you can even if you have to pay somebody for not playing for a spell. Think ahead for once.
Uncle Mike I think your right about Ricketts more worried about the length of years I truly think the Heyward contract is what caused him to fear the length. Here’s another team like my Yankees that can basically print there own money and outspend anyone . When the Ricketts first took over they said and did all the right things and got a championship breaking the curse . However it’s easy for us to spend ownerships money and wish for the team to sign the players we want .
I’m a Red Sox fan and would love to see Breslow roll the dice on Brandan Woodruff.
I long for the days when the Nats weren’t free agent bottom feeders and the O’s intelligently spent money too. (The latter happened a *long* time ago, before Angelos chased Davey Johnson and pretty much everybody else who knew things about baseball out of town.) The Hot Stove League makes the offseason, and days between CFB and NFL games, more fun. I’ll still follow the transactions of course, but it’s not as much fun when you pretty much know your teams aren’t signing any of the top free agents.
Feel like the Mets offer mad Mets money to Suárez, Cease, King, Woodruff and Valdez and land two of them along with one more decent name such as Eflin or Márquez or Soroka. If Skubal gets thrown out on the trade market pre-season 2026, Mets will be in on that too.
Mets will not be signing that many starters. Don’t think that is how Mets will operate as there is not that much room (vets with sizable contracts or promising youth).
My guess would be a short term signing (Cease with opt outs), attempt to trade for Skubal, and reinvent bullpen.
Possibly. If the Mets signed King…what do you think their intention would be? Try to maintain him as a starter, convert back to the bully as he was with NYY or go halfsies and have him as the long, 2-4 innings reliever once or twice a week? Think he might be best in that last role.
Personally, I’d say King will not sign with any team they won’t commit to his being in the rotation so long as he is healthy.
And if they try to trade for Skubal, DET will be asking for at least one of the NYM young starting pitchers in the package.
I’d say they would have to start with two of MacLean, Tong and Sproat and add a couple additional pieces like Jett, Benge, Baty et al. It is going to be a total overpay if someone wants him but honestly with the volatility of unproven prospects is it really an overpay. Look back at the Verlander trade as an example.
Also don’t feel the powers that be signed Soto to that contract and had all those pitching injuries in the 2nd half of the season just to miss the playoffs won’t overcompensate somewhat in 2026. Do we really think Cohen will be okay standing pat and rationalizing that 2025 was just a fluke or will he outDodger the Dodgers? Betting on the latter.
I think the Mets will sign one of the top free agent starters. Perhaps two of them depending on if they trade for one.
This maybe a good time to spend on a starter. There is a chance that neither the dodgers nor Yankees go for a top starter. If they don’t this may keep the prices down a bit.
Simm – totally agree on the Yankees / Dodger effect. People commenting about the Japanese player coming to LA – they are going to be 5 deep on TOR guys (projected and if healthy) and another 5 mid rotation prospects returning from injury, etc.
Where would a SP FA expect to play?
NYY not as stacked but still has the top 5 guys in play so why spend on a FA other than a depth piece.
Mets would be crazy not to spend on 2 guys though.
AJ needs an option deal with King and then hit on the next conversion guy or bounce back guy like he has done so well lately.
Yankees likely will spend but on bats.
The Dodgers I don’t see spending at all on a starter. They will likely spend on a reliever again. Though I guess they could then trade a starter or two.
That sets the Mets up to potentially be the big spender on starters.
With that said there are some tier 2 spenders that will be in the market for starters. Like the Red Sox, Cubs, Braves, Phillies (perhaps), jays, Astros, giants, Padres.
I think a number of starters are likely to be still available late into the offseason trying to find a big deal. Most of these starters have real warts. A lot of them in the top 1-2 tier on this list are looking at 15-25m per year deals. Which should be well within the tier 2 spenders market.
Preller I believe will wait out the market like he did with Pivetta last year and look for a bargain late in the offseason. Plus it gives him some time to see if any of these relievers will work as starters. Perhaps he tries to extend king early but my guess is king will wait and see if a big deal is out there.
Preller will keep tabs, explore every possible trade target. If Darvish retires I could see him being a bit more aggressive. I do expect him to land a 2-3 starter type. Plus a guy in the lower range. Something that will look like this..
Pivetta, Musgrove, Add (free agent or trade), darvish, Add…Vasquez, Sears for depth. With the potential of a current reliever filling one of the add spots. If darvish retires that changes this scenario.
I have Pablo Lopez as one of his trade targets. Though Preller will of course explore every option. Lopez fits in the budget and shouldn’t cost that much as far as prospects are concerned. Perhaps can even get the twins to pay down some of his salary. I believe they would like to add a lefty starter to the mix. Morejon I believe is the most likely of the relievers to become a starter.
Yankees will need to spend on relievers to make up for the 130 IP between Luke Weaver and Devin Williams.
SD has a couple of controllable young RP’s that are “extra” – the one real strength and top of system now – for a mid range controllable SP ready prospect. Yankees seem to be ok on its rotation for 2026.
Good analysis. Some of these will not like the market, and there are a fair amount of targets. If you are waiting for a star, you might have to move early and overpay. If you are just looking for a good pitcher, a Pivetta type, I think you can sit and wait.
I think that’s Preller’s move.
Think you may be well underestimating Lopez’s value but a fan can dream right?
I’m a Nats fan, so it’s definitely not in my nature to write anything nice about the Mets. But IMO it’s less “about” Cohen and more about Sterns. In hiring Stearns, IMO Cohen realized/admitted to himself that he’s not a “baseball guy” and if he wants to win, he needed a baseball guy to make personnel decisions. Stearns was probably “in Cohen’s ear” weeks ago, telling him that the fans/media will be all over him, and he should resist the urge to over correct.
Even though the Mets season didn’t go the way they wanted, Stearns isn’t going to panic and dramatically overpay for one SP, even one as good as Skubal. One of the best things the Mets have going for them is their good, young, pitching depth.
Most of the time you’re not going to make the playoffs or win a WS with only 1-2 really good SP. Depth is crucial. The cliche “You can never have enough good pitching” became a cliche because it’s true. The Dodgers have gone on pitching buying sprees during the offseason and either their rotation or bullpen (or both) have still lacked quality depth by October. Trading away that depth for Skubal is *very* risky. Especially if you don’t already have a new contract agreement in place when you trade for him.
I could see Alex Cobb and his Toronto Blue Jays next year
As a RS fan, get me Cease, Bieber or Imai.
I also like Mahle as a buy-low candidate. He was a decent #3 before the injuries, and I wouldn’t write him off based on the lower K-rate. If you’re a team that needs multiple SPs, like the RS, he’s a good fill-in at the end of the rotation.
I think Gallen and Flaherty both accept a QO
If sonny gets traded, would like to see the cards sign a couple of the possible bounce back types,so they can possibly flip them at the deadline.