The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.
Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.
The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.
As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
- Riley Adams (Nationals): $1.5MM
- Luis Campusano (Padres): $1MM
- Jonah Heim (Rangers): $6MM
- Alex Jackson (Orioles): $1.8MM
- Andrew Knizner (Giants): $1.3MM
- Reese McGuire (Cubs): $1.9MM
- Garrett Stubbs (Phillies): $925K
- Connor Wong (Red Sox): $1.6MM
First Basemen
- Jake Bauers (Brewers): $2MM
- Jake Burger (Rangers): $3.5MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (Red Sox): $13.5MM*
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): $7.8MM
- Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks): $2.4MM
Second Basemen
- Vidal Bruján (Braves): $800K
- Mauricio Dubón (Astros): $5.8MM
- Luis García Jr. (Nationals): $7MM
- Jonathan India (Royals): $7.4MM
- Gavin Lux (Reds): $5MM
- Michael Massey (Royals): $2MM
Third Basemen
- Alec Bohm (Phillies): $10.3MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (Yankees): $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Duran (Rangers): $1.4MM
- Andy Ibáñez (Tigers): $1.8MM
- Ramón Urías (Astros): $4.4MM*
Shortstops
- Nick Allen (Braves): $1.5MM
Center Fielders
- JJ Bleday (Athletics): $2.2MM*
- Derek Hill (White Sox): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (Diamondbacks): $1.9MM
- Jack Suwinski (Pirates): $1.7MM
- Matt Vierling (Tigers): $3.1MM
Corner Outfielders
- Will Benson (Reds): $1.7MM
- Will Brennan (Guardians): $900K
- Jake Fraley (Rays): $3.6MM*
- Tyler Freeman (Rockies): $1.8MM
- Adolis García (Rangers): $12.1MM
- Sam Haggerty (Rangers): $1.4MM
- Nolan Jones (Guardians): $2MM
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): $4.7MM
- MJ Melendez (Royals): $2.65MM
- Christopher Morel (Rays): $2.6MM*
- Luke Raley (Mariners): $1.8MM
- Jesús Sánchez (Astros): $6.5MM
- Mike Tauchman (White Sox): $3.4MM
- Taylor Trammell (Astros): $900K
- Eli White (Braves): $1.2MM
Designated Hitters
- David Fry (Guardians): $1.2MM
Starting Pitchers
- Bailey Falter (Royals): $3.3MM
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): $2.3MM
- Jake Irvin (Nationals): $3.3MM
- Alek Manoah (Braves): $2.2MM
- Luis Medina (Athletics): $900K
- Andre Pallante (Cardinals): $3.4MM
- JP Sears (Padres): $3.5MM
- José Suarez (Braves): $1.5MM
- Ken Waldichuk (Athletics): $900K
- Joey Wentz (Braves): $1.1MM
Right-Handed Relievers
- Jason Adam (Padres): $6.8MM
- Jorge Alcala (Cardinals): $2.1MM*
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): $2.3MM
- Jake Bird (Yankees): $1MM
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): $1.3MM
- JT Brubaker (Giants): $2.1MM
- Yennier Cano (Orioles): $1.8MM
- Jake Cousins (Yankees): $841K
- Enyel De Los Santos (Astros): $2.1MM
- Camilo Doval (Yankees): $6.6MM
- Scott Effross (Yankees): $800K
- Matt Festa (Guardians): $1MM
- Jason Foley (Tigers): $3.15MM*
- Reed Garrett (Mets): $1.4MM
- Kevin Ginkel (Diamondbacks): $3MM
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): $941K
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): $1.7MM*
- Kevin Kelly (Rays): $1MM
- Jackson Kowar (Mariners): $800K
- Max Kranick (Mets): $1MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (Yankees): $3MM
- James McArthur (Royals): $800K
- Nick Mears (Brewers): $1.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): $800K*
- Eli Morgan (Cubs): $1.1MM
- Evan Phillips (Dodgers): $6.1MM — expected to miss most or all of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June
- Tanner Rainey (Tigers): $1.6MM*
- Yohan Ramírez (Pirates): $1.2MM
- Gregory Santos (Mariners): $800K
- Josh Sborz (Rangers): $1.1MM
- Brock Stewart (Dodgers): $1.4MM
- Albert Suárez (Orioles): $900K
- Cole Sulser (Rays): $1.2MM
- Ryan Thompson (Diamondbacks): $3.9MM
- Trent Thornton (Mariners): $2.5MM
- Justin Topa (Twins): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski (Red Sox): $800K*
Left-Handed Relievers
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): $3MM
- Anthony Banda (Dodgers): $1.7MM
- José Castillo (Mets): $1.7MM
- Sam Hentges (Guardians): $1.3375MM
- John King (Cardinals): $2.1MM
- Joey Lucchesi (Giants): $2MM
- Sam Moll (Reds): $1.2MM
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): $800K
- A.J. Puk (Diamondbacks): $3.3MM — expected to miss most of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June
- Tayler Saucedo (Mariners): $1.1MM*
* Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
The Yankees would have non-tendered their list of players here, or a few of them, before exposing some interesting prospects to the Rule 5. I gather the same for other teams who have a full 40-man rosters too. .
Eh I don’t think that’s true. Even separate from the arb-eligible players listed, they’re still carrying Braden Shewmake, Allan Winans and Jayvien Sandridge on the 40. If they had other prospects they were really concerned about losing, they could have made room pretty easily
Is there a reason why the Padres would non-tender Jason Adam? Is it related to the financial issues they are having? Wouldn’t they be able to find a trade partner for him considering the salaries some relievers are getting?
It’s kind of a headscratcher of an article, but all the Padres listed are NOT being Non-Tendered. It’s all seemingly random speculation. Adam will be healthy and effective in (more than likely) an 8th inning role.
Thanks G. It’s what I also thought; but, figured you would know if there is a health issue I’m unaware of with Adam.
How is it a headscratcher? It’s not a list of non-tenders…it’s a list of those who have had at least some speculation of being non-tendered.
And some of those on the list are headscratchers. Just my free opinion, take it for what it’s worth. I enjoyed the read, just curious to see some of these names here.
Didn’t he blow out his quad or knee? He’s likely done for at least half the year
At worst he will miss 10 weeks, but he is shooting for ST. (ruptured quad but he’s healing well.)
Padres are broke
Sure HATER lol
You’ll see when they trade tatis for payroll
And i just hate prellar not san diego
Lmao k
He seems easy to sign and trade later if needed
And that’s the bottomline, Vegas. Half the League would want Adam, and some would make him Closer. That holds value, a potential 10 weeks missed or not.
Still pretty ridiculous that Luis Campusano is being projected as a “possible” Non-tender. He led AAA in Batting Average, was 3rd in Homers and will make (roughly) a milly. AJ Preller has already stated that Campy will be “in the mix” next year, but go on and speculate away with yer bad selves…
First of all, GMs lie all the time. Second of all, Campusano is out of options, so he can’t be sent to AAA. Third, he’s a really bad defender and hasn’t shown an ability to hit enough to be a first baseman
Don’t need Options if you’re on the Active Roster. Played 1B, DH and C all last year… and led the AAA world in hitting. He’s very controllable, making a *cheap* mil, and making the squad.
He’s 27 and has -.7 bWAR in the bigs in his career, out of options. Strong candidate to be removed. Wasn’t good enough to play on the team last year, even though “he led AAA” yet you want to sacrifice a 26 man spot to him all of 2026.
Tendering him a contract does not obligate a team to keep him for the whole season. It keeps him on the team until they decide he is not one of the chosen 26..
Tomato, tomahto Mr. kin. We’ll find out soon! 🤙🏽🍻
Correct stymee, but it requires they pay him and allow him to take up a valuable roster spot until that date.
If they foresee him having any impact on the big league team then they’ll tender him. If they don’t, then they won’t.
$1MM for a controllable backup C and part-time RH 1B/DH that hit *really well* last year (granted, AAA…) isn’t a NT candidate, again, in my opinion.
If Preller really believes in him, he wouldn’t bury him in the minors or play him above such studs as Elias Diaz or Maldonado.
Not saying I know half the real truth, but I really do think AJ had particular “concerns” with Campy and was trying to show him the way/teach him what’s up/keep him under his thumb. Admittedly, ’25 was a strange showing for Campy even though he was All-World at AAA.
Fair enough. Maybe letting him boost his confidence and not get jerked around until he gives him one last shot at the job? It’s not easy when you’re up and down and playing 1-2 days a week.
Written directly above the list: “To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut”
Plenty of guys mash in AAA and aren’t given much of a chance in MLB
Or, like Michael Toglia, they mash in AAA and are given too many chances in the MLB
No offense to the author because I have read this from several different sources now. There is a zero chance of Bohm being non-tendered. Zero chance. The Phillies will absolutely tender him a contract, and then they still very well may trade him. Alec Bohm can hit, just not for very much power. He has improved his defense enough to justify a $10M salary.
Perhaps they are predicating it on the notion that the Phillies drop a bunch of money to resign Schwarber and then go all-in and sign Bregman too. That’s the only scenario I could imagine them non-tendering Bohm.
@SteveT – MLBTR has had a negative view of Bohm all the way along. I agree that he is not going to be NT – he is a solid albeit middle of the pack 3B. A one year $10-11M deal for that is more than fine, and he is the bridge to Miller unless he is traded.
Bohm has been a blind spot around here since I can remember…not saying that Bohm is great but the saberdude leanings can tend to magnify their own opinions at times.
If you’ve read it from multiple sources, then the odds are above 0%.
Mountcastle is the likeliest non-tender of any player. Feel bad he never break through like Showalter/Duquette regime assumed, but with Basallo and Mayo right there, Elias is going to cut bait.
I couldn’t agree more. I’ll double-down and predict he ends up in San Diego locked into a 1B/DH platoon with Gavin Sheets.
Good call. I’d like to see him and Laureano do well together.
I don’t think there is any chance Raley, Santos, or Kowar get non-tendered, not at that low of a price for each. Thornton maybe, especially considering his injury that will likely cut into the start of next year.
Reeae McGooner (McGuire) had a very surprising season with the Cubs but I think he’ll now be caught by someone else given himself “a stranger”
Just tell him to keep his biznass to the hotel room… haha
I hope Oswaldo stays in New York. He’s a great guy on the bench along with Rosario hopefully comes back
I think that some team will decide that $2M is worth it and trade for him, either before or after Friday. He’s exposed if he starts more than 45-50 games, but he has a solid arm and the staff seemed to like pitching to him.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Alec Bohm is traded this week
I was surprised to see Matt Vierling as a potential NT as well with a projected cost of $3.1M. Does he have an injury issue that affects next season?
I could see a scenario where it would make sense since they really don’t have a spot for him (and if McKinstry moves to a utility role, Vierling is sortof redundant) — but I still doubt he gets non-tendered. Vierling has been a good clubhouse guy and was coming off a nice year in 24 before the injury bug this year.
Vierling is a RH bat in a predominately LH OF in Detroit. Unlike Malloy and Jones, he is solid defensively and can play CF. He is also someone that was acquired by Harris (rather than Avila) so I don’t see him being nontendered.
What are your thoughts on Beau Brieske? Was really starting to look like a potential dominant reliever towards the end of ‘24 — and even began ‘25 as the closer(!). I’m not sure how much of his performance this year was to blame on injury — but he was downright terrible, even in AAA.
I still think he’s worth keeping around another year — especially when you consider they were trying to get leverage innings out of Bailey Horn this past September…
I’d like to see the Cubs go get Vierling as a 5th OF and backup 3B. The Cubs are going to have three LH outfielders if Suzuki is at DH, so being able to have Vierling PH for Caissie for example would be a good thing. He would also be insurance if Shaw slumps badly in season #2.
Who would everyone say are the likeliest players to get cut by Fridays deadline ?
Bailey Falter
My response went elsewhere, but I think Johnathan India. His declined production is not worth $7M…
As an Astros fan hopefully sanchez
Kinda weird to see Manoah’s name on the list. Jays boot him, Braves pick him up, he hasn’t thrown a pitch for them and they’re going to cut him loose? Unless he’s injured, I can’t see this one.
Feel kinda bad for these guys who take their lumps and first chance they get for a raise, it’s non tender city and latch on with a minor league deal.
Jonathan India. Not worth $7M with his declining production…
Who put Bohm on this list? 100% zero freaking chance he is non tendered lmao Clownery.