Latest On Red Sox’s Payroll Flexibility

In the aftermath of the Sonny Gray trade, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made it clear that the team’s plan was to focus on upgrading an offense that saw Alex Bregman opt out of his contract and head back to free agency this winter (not to mention traded away Rafael Devers back in June). There’s been some talk of the club even signing multiple star bats to help fill out the lineup, pairing a reunion with Bregman with the addition of someone like Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber.

That could prove to be easier said than done, however, as a report from MassLive’s Sean McAdam suggests the Red Sox might not have that sort of room in the budget. According to McAdam, the Red Sox are willing to pass the luxury tax threshold as they did in 2025. With that being said, however, McAdam reports that doing so would leave the club “absorbing a moderate financial loss,” and that Boston is hesitant to spend beyond that level and incur bigger deficits.

Some fans will surely balk at the idea that one of the sport’s most valuable brands and franchises is operating at a loss, especially following an offseason where the team made an offer north of $700MM to Juan Soto.  It’s easy to see why Soto specifically would be a player the team was willing to make an exception for based on his youth and incredible talent, but it’s also worth remembering that the books of the league and individual franchises are generally closed and not publicly available. That means claims of losses from most franchises and ownership groups cannot be independently verified.

Of course, whether fans take Boston’s claims about profitability at face value or not won’t change their short-term payroll plans. The Red Sox spent just under $245MM in 2025 for luxury tax purposes, according to RosterResource. Their projected luxury tax payroll for 2026 stands at $223MM. That means they have just $22MM left in payroll flexibility if they plan to spend at the same level they did last year. Of course, it should be noted that there could be at least some wiggle room within McAdam’s reporting. While he makes clear that the Red Sox won’t be floating a $300MM payroll on level with the Yankees, the second level of the luxury tax sits at $264MM this year. If the Red Sox simply want to stay under that second threshold, they’d have as much as $40MM in spending capacity this winter.

There’s other ways payroll could come down. The Red Sox would surely love to find a taker on Masataka Yoshida or Jordan Hicks. The pair will make a combined $30.5MM in 2026 for luxury tax purposes, and while rival clubs surely won’t be interested in absorbing all of that salary (at least without sending their own bad contract back in exchange), it’s not impossible that Breslow could trade one or both players with cash included in order to save a bit of money. Jarren Duran has been in trade rumors for years, and dealing him would offload the $7.7MM salary he’s owed for 2026.

Bregman, Alonso, and Schwarber are all predicted by MLBTR for an annual salary between $26MM and $28MM. Even if the Red Sox were willing to push right up against the second threshold of the luxury tax, adding two of those bats would be impossible without shedding significant salary elsewhere. If the Red Sox are committed to remaining around the $245MM mark in 2026, then even bringing in one of those bats is likely to require moving some salary. With that said, all indications point to the club being willing to take a big swing on at least one of the offseason’s top hitters.

Some lower level bats Boston has been connected to like Kazuma Okamoto ($16MM), J.T. Realmuto ($15MM), and Jorge Polanco ($14MM) are predicted for significant more affordable annual salaries, however. Adding one star player such as Bregman alongside a player like Polanco or Realmuto from the next tier down in free agency might be doable within the team’s apparent financial limitations, though even that would require some salary to be moved out if the club is going to avoid the second luxury tax threshold. Those pieces wouldn’t have the guaranteed impact of someone like Schwarber, but would still represent a significant on-paper improvement over internal options like Kristian Campbell and Connor Wong.

Perhaps there’s a trade candidate or two who could make sense for the Red Sox, allowing them to add a bat for a relatively small financial outlay and potentially move out salary in a trade. Brendan Donovan ($5.4MM), Ryan Jeffers ($6.6MM), and Alec Bohm ($10.3MM) are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for affordable arbitration salaries this year and placed in the top half of MLBTR’s Top 40 Trade Candidates list for the current offseason. Bringing one of those players into the mix would add a complementary bat to the lineup while still leaving ample room in the budget for a big swing at someone like Bregman or Alonso.