The Rays are known to be perusing the market for shorter-term starting pitching help as they look to fill out their 2026 rotation, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that a pair of familiar names are being discussed by the team as potential targets: right-handers Zach Eflin and Adrian Houser.
Eflin, 32 in April, signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays prior to the 2023 season. He made 50 starts for the Rays before being traded to the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline. In that time, he posted a 3.72 ERA and a 3.26 FIP with a 23.5% strikeout rate against a 3.2% walk rate. His 2023 season in particular was very strong, as he finished 6th in AL Cy Young award voting with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate with a 3.50 ERA and 3.01 FIP across 177 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate fell to 19.6% last year, however, and this past season the bottom completely fell out from Eflin’s performance. He was limited to just 14 starts for the Orioles by injuries, and when he was healthy enough to take the mound he struggled to a 5.93 ERA with a 5.64 FIP with a 16.2% strikeout rate.
Houser, 33 in February, was acquired by the Rays from the White Sox at this year’s trade deadline. He made ten starts with a 4.79 ERA and a 4.38 FIP, though his overall season was much stronger than that. In 125 innings between Chicago and Tampa, Houser posted a 3.31 ERA and a 3.81 FIP across 21 starts this past year despite a 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Despite those strong overall results, Houser’s weak ratios combine with a long history as a bottom of the rotation arm or fifth starter (99 ERA+ from 2019-24) to make the 2025 season look like an outlier in his career, and while the Rays are an organization known for maximizing their pitchers his ten starts in Tampa didn’t inspire much confidence.
Both pitchers have flashed mid-rotation ability in the past but head into free agency with significant question marks that could leave them limited to relatively affordable short-term deals. It shouldn’t be a shock that this would be appealing to the Rays, as the club perennially faces a payroll crunch. Topkin suggests the club’s payroll is likely to clock in around $85MM for 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club for a payroll of around $94MM, but that would include a $15.5MM salary for embattled shortstop Wander Franco, who hasn’t played since 2023 and was convicted of sexual abuse earlier this year. He’s been on the restricted list since July of 2024 and has not collected an MLB paycheck ever since. Without Franco’s money on the books, the team’s payroll falls to $78MM, meaning they have around $7MM in budget space for additions.
That should be enough to sign a low-end rotation arm like Eflin or Houser in free agency, but with other needs to fill (such as a hole at catcher and a desire to improve over Taylor Walls at shortstop) Topkin suggests the club could also turn to the trade market. That could be an attractive avenue to acquire cost-controlled talent while also shedding salary if the club parts with a player like Brandon Lowe, who is due $11.5MM in 2026 and has been considered a trade candidate for years. Topkin speculatively suggests a reunion with Twins right-hander Joe Ryan could be one avenue the Rays could pursue on the trade market. The 2025 All-Star’s projected $5.8MM salary in 2026 is certainly affordable, but the link between the Rays and Ryan seems to be largely speculative on Topkin’s part. Other possible trade candidates who would come on affordable salaries this year include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals.
Orioles need to bring Eflin back for depth – solid number 4 starter
Another Tyler wells would be Adrian Houser, who also has a track record of outperforming his peripherals.
Please take the time to parse Eflin’s individual starts and monthly numbers. He’s still effective when healthy.
Obviously the asking price is a huge factor in whether or not he’ll provide fair value, but the ceiling and track record are simply superior to Wells’.
As an addendum, Eflin has a career WAR of 12.6 vs 3.8 for Wells. Please let us know when you decide to factor results into your equation
WAR is a cumulative stat. Eflin has 3.4 times the innings as Wells. 3.8 x 3.4 = 12.9. So Wells has been the better pitch in his sample size by a marginal amount.
Also to address you other point: Eflin’s career ERA is 4.28. His career xERA is 3.84 and xFIP is 4.03. So Eflin “also has a track record of outperforming his peripherals.” However Wells’ career ERA is 3.98 while his xERA is 3.93 and xFIP is 4.48. So he has outperformed his xFIP but has actually UNDER preformed his xERA (by a insignificant amount, but still true).
So I will tell you the same thing you told Dodgerblue: Please let us know when you decide to factor results into your equation
You’re conflating the quantity over quality approach used by salary arbitrators with how war is calculated.
The two formulas, BWAR and FWAR differ in the factors considered but both aim to calculate a player’s value relative to that of a replacement level player. Chris Carter had 0.7 BWAR when he hit 41 home runs in 2016.
Quality matters.
Your math says there is no real difference between Elfin and Wells as the. Fielding component of WAR is an inexact measure. That is the view of the creator of the stat over at fangraphs
Eflin’s career ERA is above that of his xERA and xFIP as another commenter noted. That means he’s outperformed his career ERA, not the peripherals. The same can’t be said across the board for either Houser or Wells.
Not only is Eflin more efficient, but he does it while averaging more inning per start. That’s indicative of durability. Both players are 31 and Wells still hasn’t pitched 140 innings, even combined between the majors and minors.
That’s not even mentioning that Eflin has better career number for home run rate, walk rate , K:BB ratio and xFIP and ERA and had maintained those rates while working deeper into his starts.
Houser??? Better to have Quaid.
What the Eflin…Man
Why did they trade Jose Caballero if they wanted to improve over Walls…
You’re right. My Yankees, in all fairness, should give Tampa Bay Anthony Volpe. Maybe in return they could supply our dugout with boxes of tissues, so when YES Network cuts to a shot of Boone we don’t have to continuously see him picking his nose.
I believe the answer here is essentially financial. Caballero is certainly a valuable player, but Rays needed a true backup SS (Walls is frequently hurt) and had established that Caballero was not good enough, for their taste, to run out at the 6 regularly.
Since they weren’t comfortable playing him at SS consistently, he wasn’t worth what the Rays were going to have to pay him thru arbitration for 2026 as a utility infielder.
Yea, they must have something in their metrics that differs from the public stats because he’s actually a pretty good SS by our numbers.
Compared to Walls, groundballs fly into the outfield via the SS space with Cabby in the field. Cabby is simply not good in the field at SS. He is excellent at 3B though.
As a Rays’ fan, I wish I could answer this. I can’t. Cabby is a bad fielder at SS (I don’t care what the stats say), but he is versatile and cheap and generally competent enough at the plate to give ABs to. The Rays missed him after the trade and will miss him next year. Plus, the return from the Yankees was craptastic. I honestly can’t explain the trade no matter how hard I try. The fact that it was the first trade between the Rays and Yankees in perhaps Stu’s entire ownership tenure (other than trades cash consideration trades or 3 team trades where the Rays’ player went to the third team), only makes the trade all the more confusing.
Why is Houser wearing a Rangers hat in his profile pic if he has never played for the Rangers on his stat page?
He pitched for Round Rock, an affiliate of Texas, in 2025.
Thanks, didn’t even think to look at the non-major stats. Good looking out.
“Now this is the plan: Get your A** to Mars”
Will be a tough sell on a FA coming into Tampa this season.
Rookies Ty Johnson, Joe Boyle, Joe Rock and Ian Seymour all potentially in line for starts.
Signing a pair of veteran SPs makes sense, a pair of arms to eat innings this season, but Hauser and Eflin are at the high end of the bargain bin.
If you are the Rays, Alek Manoah, John Means, Jose Urquidy, Jon Gray — a pair of those arms makes more sense on a 1 year, low AAV deal.
Walls you must keep. Rays fans love to rag on Walls, in what should be a major rebuild this season, have to keep Walls on the team. If you noticed, he started to hit a little at the end of last season. Could be a good year for Walls in ’26.
Trade three of the four: Rasmussen, McClanahan, Baz, Pepiot. Trade Yandy.
Play another season at Steinbrenner and put some money into the Trop for ’27/’28 season. Refurbish the Trop! Keep the Rays in Tampa.
Walls “you must keep?” lol. Late 20s defensive only guy coming off as .599 ops certainly doesn’t suggest “must keep”. In fact, he’s not a starter on a legit championship contender rather defensive replacement, pinch runner type
I think now that they’re out of the Yawnkeyz’ Single-A stadium they can probably sign some decent pitchers. The Trop isn’t a bad place to throw in, at least compared to the bandboxes in BOS/NYY/TOR. That said they’ll have to spend money to get anyone even halfway good, and this is the Rays we’re talking about. They’re awesome at rebuilding the careers for some guys though, maybe they pick up some reclamation project pitchers on the cheap.
If you can play in a Major League stadium, even if that stadium is the Trop, over playing in a spring training facility you do it.
I don’t see the Rays doing any of what you suggested, and if they did it’s probably because they know their arms are about to fall off
I think the fans enjoyed Rays games at Steinbrenner, it’s a nice ballpark, sellout every game win or lose. In a year that is looking likely to be more about rebuilding than it is about competing, another season at Steinbrenner would be great.
Walls is a big part of this Rays team despite his short comings offensively. His .270/.299/.432 in July was a good month. I think you keep Walls around for the rebuild and resign him in ’28 to be your utility infielder.
Walls is a mid 60s wRC+ bat (which is awful) and a really good fielder. If Carson Williams is a legit SS (we will likely know that at the end of 2026), then Walls has no place with the Rays going forward. His bat is too awful to play 2B, and he is unlikely to log much time at SS if Williams is legit. If Williams is not legit, then Walls probably sticks for the next 2 years. No Rays fan wants to see that though.
The Rays currently have the following SPs – Ras, McClanny, Pepiot, Baz, Boyle, Seymour, and possibly Jax. Lets take Jax out of the mix, as the Rays may be looking to go full Rays Way next year (ie: dominant pitching and no offense) and will need Jax in the Pen to accomplish that. McClanny is a wildcard, as his career could be essentially over (worst case) or he could pitch 125-150 IP as a dominant SP (best case). So the Rays can’t count on McClanny at all, and even in a best case scenario he will be on an IP limit from day 1. That leaves only Ras, Pep, Baz, Boyle, Seymour and AAA arms as arms the Rays can count on today, and there are obviously issues with some of those guys, so I understand the desire to add a SP..
The Rays’ beat writer is reporting the Rays will have payroll around $85MM next year and if you subtract Franco’s $15MM salary from current salary obligations, the Rays have around $5MM to spend next year. Maybe that signs Eflin or Houser but it doesn’t improve the offense, which was a problem in 2025 and will likely take another step back in the pitcher friendly Trop. Trades for a SP are a possibility, but the author of this article is delusional to think the Rays might pay the trade cost to acquire M.Gore or J.Ryan. More likely, the Rays will sign someone like Eflin or Houser cheap, knowing they have McClanny, Jax and a good stable of AAA arms to draw from if needed, and they’ll trade B.Lowe and/or Y.Diaz and hope they can use the cash saved by trading those guys to trade for or sign free agent replacements that result in an overall better team. I’m not optimistic that strategy will work and would recommend they go full rebuild.
Eflin and Hauser both looking at well above 1yr/5M.
Rasmussen could bring a haul in a trade this off-season. Should be a number of teams interested in Rasmussen.
Yandy brings in a haul of nice prospects. He has a great contract and has hit consistently for years.
Could keep McClanahan, Baz and Pepiot another year and see how the team develops but all should be available if a team has the prospect capital and puts together a good package.
Rays likely fielding trade offers all off season.
I don’t know what Eflin and Houser will require to sign, but the Rays should steer clear from anything long term or above $7.5MM for 2026 in my opinion. The Rays will have a large group of top pitching prospects in Durham next year, and combined with the folks under consideration for the OD 2026 rotation, the Rays should be set for pitching.
Ras is the staff Ace. Trading him could be the best move long term, but it signifies a rebuild in 2026 in my opinion. Yandy’s current deal is likely to be a 2 year deal covering his age 36 and 37 seasons (assuming he hits the vesting option requirements for 2027). He may not have as much trade value as some think because of his age and initial signs of slowing down. Too bad he can’t play at Steinbrenner the rest of his career.
It will be an interesting offseason for sure. Do the Rays rebuild or try to contend?
Wander is not getting paid. No one on MLB’s restricted list gets paid.
Yeah, I know that, but he has an appeal coming up and he might have his sentence overturned and even get a visa into the US (though very doubtful on either account). Rays have to budget somewhat for the possibility of that happening though..
Zach could use a little Keebler eflin magic to stay healthy.
Wonder if the rays would be interested in liberatore and gorman. Wouldn’t break their bank and would help the cards replenish for the rebuild
Maybe Libby (though doubtful considering their history) and not Gorman.(who isn’t good).
It’s nice for the Rays to have things
The Rays are like the kid who finds a refrigerator box and somehow turns it into a tree fort.
Are they running a baseball team or a used tire shop with all these “retreads”.
The Ray’s lost me as a fan.
There are now 4,558 Ray’s fans left.