Zach Eflin

Orioles Activate Zach Eflin

By Nick Deeds | May 11, 2025 at 1:11pm CDT

The Orioles have activated right-hander Zach Eflin from the injured list ahead of his start against the Angels this afternoon, per a team announcement. Right-hander Colin Selby was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk to make room for Eflin on the active roster. In an additional move, southpaw Trevor Rogers was activated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A.

Eflin, 31, went on the shelf just over a month ago with what was described at the time as a “low-grade” lat strain. The right-hander has been a revelation for the Orioles ever since he was acquried from the Rays ahead of last year’s trade deadline. He pitched to a 2.60 ERA in nine starts down the stretch last year, and his first three starts of 2025 saw him post a 3.00 ERA despite an unusually small 11.8% strikeout rate. The Orioles were 5-6 after Eflin’s last start with the club, but since losing him from the front of their rotation the wheels have come off. The club has posted a brutal 9-18 record since then, however, and much of those struggles have been attributable to lackluster performances in the rotation.

Since the day Eflin went on the shelf, Baltimore has the worst rotation in baseball by FIP (6.10), and the third-worst by ERA (5.97). Tomoyuki Sugano has pitched quite well with a 2.72 ERA despite his 4.61 FIP and 14.2% strikeout rate, but that doesn’t appear to be particularly sustainable and the rest of the rotation has ERAs north of 5.00 across the board. Perhaps adding Eflin to the rotation ahead of Sugano can help stabilize things, particularly if he rediscovers the bat-missing abilities he flashed when he struck out 21.0% of opponents down the stretch last year. Even so, more reinforcements appear to be necessary if the Orioles are going to have a serious chance of getting back into the playoff picture.

One other potential rotation option was also activated from the IL today alongside Eflin: Rogers. Acquired from the Marlins in exchange for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby at last year’s trade deadline, Rogers struggled badly in four starts for the Orioles before being optioned to Triple-A late last year. He could have been in the mix for a rotation job this spring had he not suffered a kneecap subluxation in January that slowed his start of the season. He’s been ramping back up ever since, and is finally healthy enough to be activated from the shelf. With that being said, he’s currently set to act as Triple-A depth for the club rather than come up and pitch in the majors immediately. Perhaps that’s a sensible decision, seeing as he’s struggled to a 7.50 ERA across four rehab starts this year.

Making room for Eflin on the active roster is Selby, who made his big league debut with the Pirates back in 2023. He struggled to a 9.00 ERA in 24 innings of work, and since then has bounced between the Royals and Orioles organizations with just 10 2/3 frames in the majors total over the past two years. Most recently, he’s logged 3 2/3 innings of 4.91 ERA ball for Baltimore this year. He’ll head to Triple-A as a potential depth option for the birds going forward.

AL East Notes: Swanson, Buehler, Eflin, McDermott

By Mark Polishuk | May 4, 2025 at 10:31pm CDT

Erik Swanson has yet to pitch this season due to a median nerve entrapment in his right arm, but the reliever’s path back to the Blue Jays roster hit a snag in the form of some soreness in his right forearm. The issue prevented Swanson from a planned minor league rehab outing earlier this week, and the good news is that initial tests revealed no structural damage. However, Swanson told The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon and other reporters that more tests are set for Monday, as it hasn’t yet been determined what exactly is causing the forearm discomfort.

Swanson had some bouts with forearm soreness at a few different points in his career, such as in each of the last two Spring Trainings, and also a minor strain that sent him to the injured list for a little over three weeks during the 2020 season when he was pitching with the Mariners. Though the medicals have been clean so far on his current issue, obviously all parties will be cautious in dealing with any forearm-related injury. In the short term, the problem has delayed Swanson’s recovery, and adds more uncertainty over when exactly the reliever will make his 2025 debut.

Grayson Rodriguez Diagnosed With Mild Lat Strain

By Anthony Franco | April 23, 2025 at 9:31pm CDT

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided an update on Grayson Rodriguez before tonight’s loss to the Nationals. The right-hander was diagnosed with a mild strain in his right lat, relays Jake Rill of MLB.com. The O’s hope he can resume a throwing program within a few weeks.

The team announced last week that Rodriguez was going for a second opinion after experiencing shoulder soreness. He’d begun the season on the injured list because of elbow inflammation. The shoulder discomfort arose during his rehab process. It’s not an entirely new development, however. Rodriguez sustained a lat strain while he was a prospect midway through the 2022 season. Shoulder discomfort sidelined him early last year, while lat soreness ended his season in August.

It’ll now be at least a few weeks before Rodriguez is able to throw again. He’ll presumably be starting from scratch at that point, so he’s almost certainly going to be out into June at the earliest. It’s not the worst-case situation, but it’s another hit to a floundering Baltimore rotation. Rodriguez is arguably the O’s best starter. He posted a 3.86 ERA while striking out 26.5% of opponents across 20 starts last season.

Baltimore’s rotation carried an MLB-worst 6.22 earned run average into play Wednesday. Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been their most effective healthy starter, managed seven innings of three-run ball tonight. That’ll help the rotation’s rate stats, but the O’s were unable to capitalize on his solid outing in an eventual 4-3 loss. They’ve dropped three in a row to fall to 9-14.

Cade Povich goes against MacKenzie Gore tomorrow as they try to avoid a sweep. They’ll likely turn to rookie Brandon Young to open a weekend set against Detroit on Friday. Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer — both of whom have been hit hard — would be on schedule to finish the series. The O’s have been without Opening Day starter Zach Eflin for two weeks because of a low-grade lat strain of his own. Hyde said that Eflin will progress to bullpen sessions later this week (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun).

Grayson Rodriguez Getting Second Opinion On Shoulder

By Darragh McDonald | April 18, 2025 at 3:30pm CDT

April 18: Hyde said today that Rodriguez is getting a second opinion after receiving the results of his MRI, per Weyrich.

April 17: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided a troubling update about right-hander Grayson Rodriguez today, with video shared by Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun. Hyde says that Rodriguez recently had a side session canceled due to some shoulder soreness and was sent for an MRI today.

The results of that imaging haven’t come back yet but it’s a less than ideal development regardless. Rodriguez started the season on the 15-day injured list due to some soreness in his elbow/triceps area. He’s been trying to ramp back up lately, throwing bullpen sessions, but that now all seems to be up in the air.

For a pitcher to be dealing with simultaneous elbow and shoulder troubles is a worrisome state of affairs in any context, but it’s also notable given his track record. Rodriguez dealt with shoulder problems at times last year as well. He had a stint of almost three weeks on the IL in May, with right shoulder inflammation listed as his official ailment. He was back on the IL in early August due to right lat/teres discomfort. The injury was initially described as mild and the O’s hoped to have him back late in the year but that ultimately did not come to pass. A notable lat strain also impacted him as a prospect in 2022, shutting him down for about three months and delaying his major league debut until the 2023 campaign.

Needless to say, it’s not what the Orioles want. They came into this season with Rodriguez and Zach Eflin as the top two pitchers in the projected rotation. Rodriguez has been out all season with his elbow inflammation and now has shoulder problems on top of that. Eflin made three starts before himself landing on the IL due to a lat strain. He played catch yesterday for the first time since that IL placement, per Weyrich, and still seems to have some boxes to check.

There are other injuries as well. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June of last year and won’t be available until the second half even in a best-case scenario. Tyler Wells also had UCL surgery in June of last year. Chayce McDermott is on the IL with a lat strain, like Eflin. Trevor Rogers is on the IL with kneecap subluxation. Swingman Albert Suárez is also on the shelf, in his case due to shoulder inflammation.

Going into the offseason, many observers expected the O’s to be aggressive in adding to their rotation. They had lost Bradish to his surgery and Corbin Burnes to free agency. With a new owner in place, it was expected that some new payroll parameters could allow them to play at the top or perhaps the middle of the free agent market.

Instead, the O’s added some veteran back-end guys. They gave a one-year deal to 41-year-old Charlie Morton and another one-year pact to Tomoyuki Sugano. The latter is a bit younger than the former but is 35 and came into this year with no big league experience, looking to make the move from Japan.

With all the injuries, things aren’t going great. Morton has an 8.84 ERA thus far. Sugano’s 3.86 ERA looks better but an 84.2% strand rate is helping him work around an 8.1% strikeout rate. Cade Povich has stepped up and posted a solid 3.60 ERA in three starts but Dean Kremer is at 6.41.

Kyle Gibson will join the group eventually but he is still building up due to a late signing. He got up to 3 2/3 innings in his most recent minor league start. Brandon Young has no major league experience but is on the 40-man and putting up good numbers in Triple-A. Cody Poteet is also on the 40-man but has been working in relief in the minors, with nine earned runs allowed in five innings.

The season is still very young but the O’s are 7-10 and currently in the basement of a very competitive American League East. They entered spring training with a top-heavy rotation featuring two front-end guys in Rodriguez and Eflin and a lot of back-end candidates, though they’ve gotten almost nothing from that Eflin/Rodriguez duo so far. Ideally, both will be getting back to the team in the coming weeks/months, but this update adds an unsettling level of uncertainty.

Orioles Place Zach Eflin On Injured List With Low-Grade Lat Strain

By Anthony Franco | April 9, 2025 at 11:21am CDT

April 9: Eflin has formally been placed on the injured list, retroactive to yesterday, the team announced this morning. Righty Colin Selby is up from Triple-A Norfolk for the time being, giving Hyde an extra arm in the bullpen.

April 8: The Orioles are shutting Zach Eflin down for a week after he was diagnosed with a low-grade lat strain, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters following tonight’s loss in Arizona (relayed by Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner). The righty will land on the 15-day injured list.

Eflin felt the discomfort during Monday evening’s start. He tossed six innings of one-run ball before departing at 73 pitches. Baltimore announced that he was battling shoulder fatigue and sent him for imaging. A one-week shutdown is far from the worst case scenario, but the O’s will go at least a couple weeks without their Opening Day starter.

Baltimore is now operating without arguably their three best pitchers. They knew they wouldn’t get much, if anything, from Kyle Bradish this year after he underwent Tommy John surgery last June. Grayson Rodriguez went down in Spring Training with elbow inflammation. He’s throwing but hasn’t progressed to a minor league rehab assignment.

The O’s have Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich in the rotation. They brought back Kyle Gibson on a one-year contract late in Spring Training. He isn’t yet ready for major league action. Gibson agreed to begin the season with Triple-A Norfolk to continue his build-up. He’ll make his first start there on Thursday.

Aside from Gibson, the O’s have prospect Brandon Young as their only depth starter on the 40-man roster. Young has only allowed two unearned runs while striking out 11 over his first two Triple-A starts this year. Thaddeus Ward, who made 26 relief appearances as a Rule 5 pick for the Nationals two seasons ago, is also working out of the Norfolk rotation. Cody Poteet and Roansy Contreras are working out of the bullpen in Triple-A but have some starting experience in the majors. The O’s have off days on Thursday and Monday, so they could get by with four starters into the second half of next week.

None of those pitchers can be expected to match Eflin’s production, of course. The 31-year-old righty managed an earned run average around 3.50 in both 2023 and ’24. He’d posted an even 3.00 ERA while working six innings per start over his first three appearances of this season.

Orioles Recall Coby Mayo, Activate Zach Eflin

By Nick Deeds | September 1, 2024 at 11:48am CDT

11:48am: The Orioles have officially announced the return of both Eflin and Mayo, and have placed Urias on the 10-day IL with a right ankle sprain. Additionally, the club selected the contract of catcher David Banuelos from Triple-A and designated outfielder Forrest Wall for assignment to make room for him on the 40-man roster. Banuelos has spent most of the season at Triple-A after being outrighted to the minors back in April, while Wall was claimed off waivers from the Marlins just a few days ago but will now return to the waiver wire.

7:38am: Rosters expand from 26 to 28 today, meaning every team in baseball will get to call up an additional pitcher and an additional hitter as they begin play today. There’s little mystery about who those players will be for the Orioles, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Brandon Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that right-hander Zach Eflin will be activated from the 15-day Injured List to start today’s game against the Rockies this afternoon. Earlier in the day, Weyrich reported that top infield prospect Coby Mayo was poised to join the club as their additional hitter when rosters expanded today.

It will be the second taste of big league action for Mayo, 22. The youngster got his feet wet in the majors earlier this month with a brief cup of coffee that lasted only seven games and 20 at-bats, and he hit just .059 without an extra-base hit in that brief stint at the big league level before being optioned back to the minors. His sensational .293/.369/.574 slash line at the Triple-A level this season has left him with nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, however, so Mayo now figures to get a more extended opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues as fellow rookie Jackson Holliday has. Holliday struggled badly in his first ten games in the majors back in April but has looked better since returning to the majors the day after the trade deadline with a .218/.275/.426 slash line that’s good for a roughly league average 98 wRC+.

As for Eflin, the veteran right-hander came over to Baltimore in a trade with the Rays prior to the deadline. After posting strong enough numbers last year to finish sixth in the AL Cy Young award race, the right-hander took a step back with Tampa last year, posting a pedestrian 4.09 ERA in 19 starts despite a solid 3.68 FIP. Things changed when Eflin got to Baltimore, however, and in four starts after the swap the righty looked nothing short of excellent with a 2.13 ERA and a 24.5% strikeout rate in 25 2/3 innings of work. Eflin has been sidelined in recent weeks by a bout of shoulder inflammation, but it seems now he’s healthy enough to return to action. The Orioles are surely counting on the righty to help keep afloat a beleaguered rotation that also lost Grayson Rodriguez to the injured list in the month of August.

While Mayo and Eflin were both expected to be the club’s extra players following roster expansion, it’s possible after last night’s game that two more spots on the roster could open up today as both right-hander Dean Kremer and infielder Ramon Urias exited due to injuries yesterday. Kremer was struck by a comebacker in the fourth inning yesterday and exited with a right forearm contusion, with Manny Randhawa of MLB.com among those to relay the news that Kremer’s initial x-rays came back negative. As noted by Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, both he and Urias, who who suffered a sprained ankle after also narrowly avoiding injury when struck in the face by a pitch earlier in the game, figure to be evaluated further today to see if either player will require a stint on the injured list.

The planned returns of Eflin and Mayo to the roster coincidentally figure to cover for the losses of Kremer in the rotation and Urias at third base in the short term, but if either player requires a stint on the injured list the team will likely need to deep into its depth in order to fill out the roster. Deadline addition Trevor Rogers is on the 40-man roster and could return to the rotation is Kremer misses time, though he was optioned after posting a disastrous 7.11 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole. On the positional side, meanwhile, non-roster veterans like J.D. Davis or Jean Segura could provide infield depth for the club if Urias ends up going on the shelf.

Orioles Place Zach Eflin On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2024 at 4:00pm CDT

The Orioles placed Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 17, on account of shoulder inflammation. Baltimore also placed Keegan Akin on the paternity list. Rookie Cade Povich and reliever Dillon Tate are up from Triple-A Norfolk to take the open spots on the active roster.

Baltimore acquired Eflin in their biggest move at the deadline. The righty had carried a 4.09 earned run average through 19 starts with the Rays in the season’s first half. He has gotten out to a fantastic start to his O’s tenure. Eflin has surrendered only six runs through his first four starts. He’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per appearance and has turned in a stellar 25:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

That positions Eflin as the O’s #2 or #3 starter in a hypothetical playoff series. Corbin Burnes would surely get Game 1, while Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez are the presumptive choices for the next two appearances if they’re healthy. Both pitchers are currently on the injured list, though it doesn’t seem Eflin’s issue is as worrisome as Rodriguez’s is. While the youngster is shooting for a late September return after sustaining a lat strain, Eflin might not miss much more than the minimum 15 days. Skipper Brandon Hyde told the Baltimore beat he’s hopeful that it’ll be a short-term stay (X link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

Even a brief absence could have a significant impact on the AL East race. Baltimore is only half a game behind the Yankees for both the division lead and the best record in the American League. The O’s rotation depth has long been the biggest question mark on a very strong roster. With Kyle Bradish and John Means done for the season, Baltimore has deadline pickup Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez as their next three starters behind Burnes.

Rogers struggled for much of the season with the Marlins and has been hit especially hard in four starts since landing in Baltimore. Kremer looks like a fifth starter. Suárez has proven an excellent find in his return to the big leagues after seven years, but he’s probably best suited for a back-end or swing role on a contender. The Orioles will need to land on a fifth starter with Eflin out of action and only one off day between now and September 5. Povich, one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, seems like the choice. He has had a rough opening to his MLB career, allowing a 5.77 ERA with a similarly underwhelming strikeout and walk profile across his first nine starts.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

By Darragh McDonald | August 1, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Were the prospect prices high in this year’s trades? Is this a new normal due to the expanded playoffs creating a seller’s market? (2:15)
The three-team trade involving the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Erick Fedde, Miguel Vargas and others (15:40)
The Rays and Cubs, the buy-sell tightrope and the trade involving Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel (29:30)
The Astros acquire Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays for a three-player package and the connection to the the Dodgers acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers but the Yankees reportedly being scared off by his medicals (48:00)
The Guardians acquire Alex Cobb from the Giants and acquire Lane Thomas from the Nationals (58:35)
The Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Marlins and acquire Zach Eflin from the Rays (1:09:10)
Will teams have to be more aggressive in the offseason going forward if the expanded playoffs will make less good players available at the deadline? (1:20:35)
The Rockies and Angels held onto a lot of trade candidates (1:23:35)
The Marlins leaned in hard to seller status (1:31:40)
The Padres built a super bullpen (1:44:50)
The Braves acquire Jorge Soler from the Giants (1:47:40)
The Royals acquire Lucas Erceg from the Athletics (1:54:40)

Check out our past episodes!

Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

By Darragh McDonald | July 25, 2024 at 11:00am CDT

The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Zach Eflin

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect