Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall has already downplayed the idea of trading from his rotation this winter, but the fact that he didn’t expressly state he will not trade ace Hunter Greene led to some fan bases, and surely some rival teams, clinging to the faint hope that Cincinnati’s top starter might be available. At this week’s GM Meetings, Krall again downplayed the idea of trading a starting pitcher and was a bit more forceful with regard to Greene in particular (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Krall still declined to speak in absolutes but came close when speaking about the possibility of trading Greene, specifically:
“…[T]hat’s a hard one to actually say, ’Hey, we’re going to trade the guy that has a chance to be the ace of your staff and top-of-the-rotation guy going into the postseason.’ We’re looking to figure out how to get better, but right now that’s not on the table.”
Greene, 26, is signed for another three seasons and owed a guaranteed $41MM in that time. His contract contains a club option that, if exercised, would bring his four-year earnings total to $60MM. He could slightly boost his 2028-29 salaries via All-Star nominations and Cy Young voting.
Cy Young consideration is hardly far-fetched for Greene. Early in the 2025 season, he looked squarely in the National League mix. A pair of groin strains wound up limiting him to 19 starts and dashing those hopes, but when he was healthy Greene turned in a 2.76 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate in 107 2/3 innings. A year prior, he gave the Reds 150 1/3 frames of 2.75 ERA ball.
Greene, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, is one of baseball’s hardest throwers and clearly one of the most talented overall pitchers in the NL — if not in all of MLB. Among the 78 pitchers who have tossed at least 250 innings since 2024, his 2.76 ERA ranks sixth, trailing only Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His 29.2% strikeout rate ranks eighth among that same set of pitchers, and the 21.1-point differential between his strikeout and walk percentages sits 11th in the sport.
The Reds could extract a king’s ransom for Greene, but it’s never seemed likely that they’d pull the trigger on moving a potential four years of control over a Cy Young-caliber arm who only just turned 26 — particularly coming off a late run to the postseason. The Reds need to add multiple bats to their lineup, and the front office isn’t expecting much of a payroll bump, but teams generally balk at trading this much affordable control over a player this talented.
The safe bet will be to expect Greene to again head up one of the game’s best rotations. He’ll be joined by Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer, with top prospect Chase Burns (another former No. 2 overall pick) the early favorite for the final spot. Top prospects Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder, both former first-rounders themselves, loom in the upper minors. Lefty Brandon Williamson and righty Julian Aguiar are on the mend from 2024 Tommy John surgery and should be options in 2026.
Given that wealth of pitching, other clubs will surely try to pry some arms loose. Singer has just one year of relatively pricey club control remaining (projected $11.9MM salary), making him the most prototypical trade candidate of the bunch. Lodolo has two years of arbitration control. Abbott has three. The potential return the Reds could extract from another club would improve with every additional year of control they’re willing to surrender, but as Krall has said in the past, dealing from the established group might simply necessitate signing a veteran to backfill those lost innings.
If the Reds are indeed loath to part with pitching talent, they could look into trading a controllable young position player for a more established hitter that’s closer to free agency. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz isn’t going anywhere, and the Reds only just traded for third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes at the deadline. But the Reds also have Matt McLain, Sal Stewart, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer on the roster and won’t find regular at-bats for the whole bunch. (Encarnacion-Strand’s stock is in the tank after two injury-marred, unproductive seasons.) Prospects Cam Collier and Edwin Arroyo aren’t too far from MLB readiness themselves.
There are ways to go about trading for an offensive upgrade without sacrificing much or any of the current rotation depth, and while the payroll isn’t set for a big increase, there’s still room to splash around some cash on the open market, too. The Reds currently have a payroll projection of about $97.5MM, per RosterResource. That’s before factoring in potential trades or non-tenders of arbitration-eligible names like Gavin Lux (projected $5MM salary), Will Benson ($1.7MM projection) and Sam Moll ($1.2MM projection). Cincinnati opened the 2025 season with a roughly $112MM payroll and finished close to $120MM. They could use a bullpen arm or two as well, but there should be space to sign at least one prominent bat in free agency.
If he says it twice, doesn’t that pretty much guarantee a trade?
The ONLY thing that explains it would be Greene not being in synch with Director of Pitching, DJ Johnson – this situation has happened a few times and it’s always been the pitcher that left.
Johnson is a bit of a Savant/Enigma and though he holds some value in advanced pitching analytics, he’s on record as saying the application is “over-thinking it.” Maybe Greene wants the Shape of a Pitch data, etc. Kyle Boddy, then Director of Pitching, left the Reds in-season a couple of years back because of “philosophical differences” with Johnson…
Reds kinda fell into contention this year, just by sheer happenstance and luck. I don’t necessarily believe they’re that far off though and should add at least a little bit to the team rather than subtract.