Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. In 2025-26, there's no better place to start than with the man who held the top spot on our Free Agent Power Rankings all season and again took home the top spot on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings: outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Selected by the Astros with the No. 5 overall pick back in 2015, Tucker has been an impact hitter dating back to the 2019 season. He's slashed a combined .276/.361/.514 in that time (141 wRC+) and hasn't had any individual season that's seen him check in "worse" than 21% better than the average hitter. That came in 2019, his first partial season. Since 2021, Tucker has consistently shown enough pop to hit 30-plus homers. He's reached 25 steals three times along the way and continually upped his walk rate while also cutting his strikeout rate -- so much so that Tucker has walked more often than he's fanned over the past two seasons (15.3% to 15.2%).
Some weird, if not downright fluky injuries have hampered his reputation a bit. Tucker was playing at a full-fledged MVP level in 2024 before fouling a ball into his shin in mid-June. The Astros initially called it a contusion and then a bone bruise. Tucker's stay on the IL lingered for months, much to the chagrin of Houston fans who were perplexed by how the stated injury could take so long to mend. Finally, in September, the Astros revealed that Tucker had actually been diagnosed with a fracture somewhere along the way. It was the sort of vague, puzzling and frustrating injury absence that has become a recurring theme within the Astros organization.
A similar sequence played out in 2025, following Tucker's trade to the Cubs. He was a behemoth in the season's first three months, hitting .291/.396/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 homers in his first 366 trips to the plate. Tucker fell into a deep slump, and after a couple months it was reported that he'd actually suffered a small fracture in his hand back in June. He played through it. Whether that injury was directly responsible or not, Tucker still "struggled" (by his standards) through July and August, batting a combined .232/.363/.345 (109 wRC+). He suffered a calf strain in early September and only made it back for the season's final three games. Tucker homered in the playoffs and generally hit well through 32 plate appearances.
It's not the sort of massive platform year a top free agent would want, but Tucker has been 43% better than average, by measure of wRC+, dating back to 2021. He's historically been an above-average right fielder. Tucker has made four All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards and also has a Gold Glove to his credit. When he's healthy, there's nothing he doesn't do well. He'll also hit the market ahead of his age-29 season.
A deal easily topping $400MM might've been the expectation had Tucker stayed healthy and maintained the production he posted through late June. The question now is more about whether he can reach the $400MM mark or whether he'll .... "only" ... come in with a deal in the mid-300s.
We know some of the teams that are going to be pursuing Tucker, but let's run through his likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays will probably prioritize retaining Bo Bichette first and foremost, not wanting to let a popular homegrown star escape when they have ample long-term payroll space. Executives, agents and pundits alike all expect an active winter from Toronto after the Jays came just two outs from winning their first World Series in more than three decades, however.
It sounds crazy, but the Jays probably have the payroll space to add both players long-term. Obviously, that's not a likely scenario, but it wouldn't be all that dissimilar from the Rangers' half-billion dollar spending spree four years ago, when Texas signed Corey Seager ($325MM), Marcus Semien ($175MM) and Jon Gray ($56MM) all in the same offseason.
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Dodgers, Mets or Jays. I dont think any other team has a shot at signing him.
“Dodger, Mets”..I’m not saying it’s a shoo in, but the New York Yankees have a “shot” to sign anyone on the planet that walks upright.
The Yankees have Judge, Dominguez, Grisham and Jones coming. They could sign him but they dont need him.
King of Cards Hal Steinbrenner just did an interview with NJ.Com and said they still need an outfielder. Obviously he didn’t mention any FA by name but definitely said they need one.
Bellinger
The question for the Yankees is what long-term commitment they want to carry. Sign Bellinger and they can get an outfielder who is familiar with the Bronx for a shorter term, or go with a far longer contract with more money? Tucker is the better player, though has faced some injury issues, but Bellinger can play more positions and is streaky.
I wish there was another option, but I don’t think one exists.
King: They definitely have room. Jones probably not ready yet or ever. Dominguez has only proven he’s a terrible fielder and league average bat. Judge is going to need DH days and Stanton’s deal is almost up.
Will they pay him is the question.
Rather Belanger, more versatile and better D. But would not say no to Tucker. But Yanks also have other needs
Belanger is better than Volpe, even now.
The Mets just cleared room for him in their OF.
I like the Jays and Giants for Tucker. They’ve struck out trying to sign the likes of Judge, Ohtani and Soto.
Cruelly they might have to still outbid those same 3 teams.
I completely forgot about the day we all thought judge was going to the giants
Phillies, Baltimore, New York Mets
lol Baltimore.
Orioles don’t have 360 to spend but if they do, they should throw it all at pitching
The talk is the Orioles are ready to spend, and Elias isn’t going to stand in the way this time. I’m sure they would have to overpay to land him.
I hope they spend, but they just got ward and moved their biggest upside pitcher, they need arms in a big way
I wonder what it would take for the Dodgers to pry Harper away from Philly? Seems as if there would be a fit on both sides.
Lol.
What’s funny Von Purple?
He’s laughing at the ridiculous idea of Harper being moved to the dodgers, as we all are
What makes it a ridiculous idea? Trades do happen in baseball..
Harper has full no trade rights and hasn’t played outfield for a full season in 4 years, dodgers have freeman at 1B and Ohtani at DH.
Is there anything that doesn’t make this ridiculous?
Harper has said that he would be willing to go back to the outfield, and if there were a team that Harper would be willing to waive the no trade for, it would be the Dodgers. Freeman is 36, and will be 38 when he’s a free agent in two years. I think that what remains on Harper’s deal, might be more palatable than say a guy like Tucker at 10 years or whatever he ends up with. Maybe if the Phillies freed up Harper, they could pursue a guy like Tucker. Do I see the trade as probable? No. Am I trying to negotiate it? No. Is it ridiculous to wonder what a hypothetical trade would like, on a major league baseball trade rumor website?
No, and where else can you ask outlandish trade ideas?
Ridiculous things happen in baseball..
What’s wrong with Freeman?
Nothing. Move Harper back to the OF. He’s playing 1B because of the TJS and wants to go back to the OF anyways, if I’m remembering right.
If the Jays get both Tucker and Bichette they’ll be looking in the stands for pitchers.
For 2027 yes but for 2026 they are in pretty decent shape rotation wise.
@Dustyslambchops23
For the pen, they need a closer, one medium/high leverage guy. If the tap Lauer in the rotation they’re going to need a longman/swing guy to eat innings. A legit closer is 18M+, medium/high leverage guy about 12M and a swing guy about 5M. That’s 35M on the low side. Bo and Tucker combined are in the 60M range and ARB awards are going to come in about 20M. That’s a lot of green.
They still won the division with Hoffman, and they have varland now, they can probably use Bowden Francis as a swingman.
They will probably use tiederman in the pen for 26 as well since he won’t be able to throw many innings. He has high leverage rotation piece potential.
#Dustyslambchops23
As good as my eyesight is, I can’t see Francis contributing successfully in ’26. His good half a season blip a couple of years back appears to be the exception rather than the rule.
It Teideman is going to be on an innings limit then so is Yesavage. I think I’ve just argued myself into signing a SP ;o)
Who are the other teams. I am only able to see the blue Jays as a suitable fit.
I can tell you now it won’t be the Cubs. I’m leaning more Mets, especially now that they traded Nimmo.
I never understood why people wanted the cubs to resign him besides the fact that gave a bunch to get him. It makes so much more sense to fill multiple needs with that amount of money…
if the Mets or the Dodgers sign Tucker it is because the Jays and the Yankees gave up and Kyle decides to go on a short deal with high AAV and opt-outs.
Dodgers like every other free agent
The better question is how much will Tucker defer
Maybe we should defer these tired jokes
@Gapper: I assume you are indulging in hyperbole as a rhetorical strategy; obviously, the Dodgers don’t sign “every” free agent.
The Cubs….but I won’t pay him. You’ll get Owen Caissie instead. He might pan out.
I would prefer to give a long look at Owen Caissie, most fans would.
I think the Phillies are the best fit. They need a younger top performing player to slot in with Harper, Turner, and maybe returns for Schwarber and Realmuto. He can play RF and bat third there but he can also not need to be the face of the franchise, something he seemed uncomfortable about in Chicago.
I like him for the Phillies too.
I don’t see it. It would be a mistake frankly. They have too much field talent waiting in the wings to invest in a long term deal unless it pitches.
Don’t sleep on the Tigers ….. after 2026 they have hardly any long term committed salary.
I love the idea. Trade Riley, Parker, Colt and McGonigle (all cheap/controllable pieces) to PGH for Skenes and O’Neil Cruz… then we would need another solid OFer.
Pass on Tucker and back up the brinks truck for Skubal. Much better long term impact for the franchise
Yes, Fan, but there is a difference between having the capacity to make an expensive signing and having the will to make that signing.
Tucker will be best on a team where he can be more of a supporting player than “the guy” who drives in the game-deciding runs. He just isn’t that guy. I suspect the chances of him winding up a Dodger are pretty good. Phillies maybe. Jays maybe.
I wouldn’t rule out any teams “already set” in the outfield (Yankees,Bosox, Orioles, etc.) because the excess can be traded for other needs
Dominguez for a bullpen stud, Cowser for any above average pitcher and so on.
Red sox already havent been able to get the value they seek out of the OF surplus as it is. I dont see them adding even more to the mess.
Fits for one team, Tantrums for the Cubs
“If Kyle Tucker no fits you must acquit” – J.C.
My FA contest guess was Gigantes.