On the heels of an early morning posting announcement from Nippon Professional Baseball, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Blue Jays get to keep Bieber:
Right-hander Shane Bieber made the surprising call to exercise his $16MM player option with the Blue Jays rather than take a $4MM buyout and head into free agency yesterday. It’s a move that leaves the Toronto rotation in much better shape than previously anticipated headed into free agency, as Bieber will now join Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios in the club’s 2026 rotation. With Bieber under contract for 2026 at a bargain rate, could the Jays be more aggressive in their pursuit of a reunion with star infielder Bo Bichette or pursue another top arm to join Bieber, Yesavage, and Gausman in the team’s projected playoff rotation for next year? Yesterday’s news creates an opportunity for the Blue Jays to potentially get creative in free agency as they’ve preemptively filled out a need in their rotation without using up much of their budget.
2. Imanaga heads to free agency:
The Cubs and left-hander Shota Imanaga both declined their sides of a complex option structure that could’ve kept Imanaga in Chicago through either 2026 or 2028. Now, the southpaw is a free agent coming off an uneven season where he posted mid-rotation results with lackluster peripherals and struggled badly in the final months of the year. While the rest of the league will get the opportunity to evaluate a starting pitching option who was not expected to be available as recently as a few months ago, this may not necessarily be the end of the story between the Cubs and Imanaga. Chicago’s front office will now need to decide whether to extend the 2024 All-Star a Qualifying Offer or let him walk away into free agency unencumbered without a chance at draft pick compensation.
3. Option Decisions continue to pour in:
A number of option decisions, including the two highlighted above, have already been made. But more contracts will still need to be decided on before tomorrow’s deadline. Most of those decisions will be straightforward, with a player or club either exercising or declining their option. Some, however, could lead to some creativity. The Royals signed Salvador Perez to an extension yesterday rather than exercising his club option, while the Cubs traded Andrew Kittredge to the Orioles instead of declining his club option and paying the subsequent buyout on that option. Could any other creative moves in a similar vein emerge today?
Shocked at Beiber.
Good move ! I’m sure he thinks he’s as good as he once was and he was not in line for a yuge payday so go back where you were successful and had a meaningful season. Put up some cy young #s and get paid next offseason
He could’ve easily got $20M+/year over multiple years after showing he was healthy and capable of close to his old self in the playoffs and WS.
So like 4/100 mil ? He was not getting that
Yeah it doesn’t matter how strong or weak a FA class is, no club would be willing to pay 20M for a guy with his injury history and velocity.
Walker Buehler proved last year that success in the WS doesn’t necessarily translate to success next season.
Sounds like there may be some option trading going on.
Jose Berrios is a bit of a mystery. He really fell apart in the latter part of the season and he was said to be dealing with some sort of elbow problem which kept him out of the playoffs. They say there’s no structural damage, yet it seems a little ominous for a guy who had never missed time in his career before.
Worth noting they still have Eric Lauer who was an excellent starter for a large portion of the year, although he also tailed off a little at the end. The explanation is much simpler as he hadn’t pitched as much the last few years so he just hit the wall a little. I expect him to be favoured to be in the rotation to start next year.
They obviously can still go out and get another starter, but as of right now, assuming Berrios is good to go, they may already have a full rotation (Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios-Lauer). They might just get a depth starter or two and instead focus their offseason spending on Re-upping Bichette and Lord Almighty getting some better bullpen options.
@Canuckleball
Jays need a dominant ace and a lefty starter of some sort. Maybe they can get Skubal? That would be a dominant rotation.
Don’t think they’ll give up a ton to get skubal when cease, valdez and Suarez are available in free agency.
@Cedric Lee
All of which looked pretty weak last year. I’d be worried about Valdez. He looked cooked already. I’d pass on all three of them.
I don’t see how Suarez had a weak season last year. He’s not a dominant stuff guy, but he still has good K-BB rates for a starter and is elite at generating soft contact. I think he’s a fit for the Jays because they line up a really good defence behind their pitchers and if there’s a knock on the Blue Jays pitching staff, it’s that they give up a lot of homers where that defence can’t help them out. Suarez keeps the ball in the park. It’s not a typical ace profile like Skubal and Crochet, but maybe just having a bunch of number two types (if Gausman holds off decline, Yesavage hits his upside like it has looked like he is capable of doing, Bieber bounces back, and adding Suarez) is a path to having a really good season overall from the rotation.
Lauer is a lefty who generated the second most bWAR by a Blue Jays pitcher this past season, behind only Gausman. He’s obviously not an ace, but he was better than some might realize.
Yes, getting Skubal would make the rotation incredibly imposing but I don’t think the Tigers are going to make him available. At least I hope they don’t. They should be trying to win with him and build of this years success.
@Canuckleball
Yep, not a lot of options in the starting LHP department this year. I doubt they trade him in the offseason but given they lowballed his value, he’s leaving, regardless, so if I’m the Tigers, I’d be trying to get some value out of him other than a draft pick.
I don’t think the Jays have enough to offer for Skubal without ripping out a chunk of the current roster.
As for the other three options mentioned, Valdez seems like he would be a step back as far as team chemistry is concerned and Cease doesn’t have the type of Ground Ball rate the Jays seem to prefer.
Suarez is the one I would make the effort for but, in the end, I think he will be too expensive
I think Lauer deserves to start, but he also showed he’s flexible so could get pigeon holed into the Ross Stripling swingman role. That’d be fine if they add to the front of the rotation. They aren’t going to get by with five starters even if it has seemed like they have done well to keep everyone more or less healthy. Lauer could stretch out quickly and in season they can bring up a long guy to cover behind him during the stretching out process.
Berrios makes planning tough. You can’t really replace him, but it kind of feels like they need to have alternatives. Stretch Varland out again in spring and back him to relief once the dust settles and they know the status of all the starters?
I could see Rangers and Pederson reworking some sort of deal that would lower the AAV and CBT hit by adding a year and perhaps delaying opt out to year two. Something like Pederson declines option and Texas signs him to new contract of 3/30 with opt out after years one and two. Saves Rangers around 7 M this year giving them a chance to see whether Victory Sports Revenues increases in 26. Saves Rangers some 26 money and allows Pederson to have a better year in which case he opts out at end of 26.
I hope Hoyer signs Imanaga back, work out some kind of deal. I think Shota can make the adjustments needed to be better moving forward.
I guess Bieber must have liked it in Toronto. He still probably needs to prove he’s healthy for a whole year and then he can cash in big next off season with a new CBA. Kind of surprised more guys didn’t stay put for one more year. This year might be kind of dicey. Still waiting for the 2 no brainer options the Cubs have to make keeping Rea for 6 million and launching Turner for a 10 million dollar mutual option. If they need a shrink for PCA just hire one it’s cheaper.
Staying in Toronto where he might like the situation should give him a good chance to have that platform season, but it’s going to lead right into the offseason when the next lockout is going to happen.
I almost wonder if this is perhaps the precurser to some sort of extension with the Jays, something vaguely similar to what they did with Berrios. Maybe they keep talking this winter and sign something larger before spring training.
Or maybe this is just a one year thing. Either way, it’s good news for the Jays.
Jays need a reliable closer.
I wonder if Bieber knows his medicals won’t come back clean.
Please don’t use the words “Cubs” and “Creative” in the same paragraph.