Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Cardinals’ rebuild in full swing:
The first shot of St. Louis’s rebuild was fired yesterday when the club traded right-hander Sonny Gray (and $20MM cash) to the Red Sox for right-hander Richard Fitts, left-hander Brandon Clarke, and a player to be named later or cash. The return restocks the club’s pitching coffers, which the Cardinals haven’t been shy about making a goal of this winter. There’s plenty of additional work for the club to do even with half of Gray’s money off the books, however. The team still hopes to trade Nolan Arenado, and a host of young left-handed bats (led by Brendan Donovan) are known to be available as well. Less clear is the status of Willson Contreras, who would certainly be a logical trade candidate but has indicated a preference to stay in St. Louis.
2. What’s next for the Red Sox?
Entering the offseason, the Red Sox made it clear that a top priority for the club was to add a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Garrett Crochet and slot in ahead of Brayan Bello. They arguably did that with the Gray trade, as the veteran was a second-place Cy Young finisher as recently as 2023 in Minnesota. However, Gray hasn’t pitched at that same level in 2024-25, so it’s debatable whether he truly accomplishes this goal. Regardless, it seems that Boston will be turning its attention to bolstering the offense for the time being. That could come in a lot of different forms. Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and even Kyle Schwarber have been frequently linked to the Red Sox this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that they’re looking at J.T. Realmuto as well. Outside of free agency, the club has yet to trade from its glut of left-handed outfield talent, and Boston also has plenty of MLB-ready pitching to dangle (and even fewer innings for those young arms after adding Gray).
3. Will more pre-Thanksgiving deals shake loose?
While deals on Thanksgiving itself are somewhat rare, the days leading up to the holiday often create a bit of a rush of activity as players and teams look to push some deals across the finish line prior to holiday festivities. We’ve already seen some major trades between yesterday’s Gray deal and the weekend’s swap of Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien. Phil Maton and Jake Fraley have both wrapped up free-agent deals within the past couple days, with the former headed to the Cubs and the latter signing back with Tampa Bay just days after being non-tendered.
Last year, we saw both Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi sign within 48 hours of Thanksgiving (as you can see using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The year prior, each of Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Reynaldo Lopez closed free agent deals in in the days leading up to the holiday. In 2022, the Hunter Renfroe trade between the Angels and Brewers came together the day prior to Thanksgiving. Another deal or two on either the trade or free agent market could come to fruition before tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving, folks.
Same to you Reds.
Happy Thanksgiving Red!
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone that posts on this site.
Hope everyone has a good holiday!
Thank-you MLBTR.
Haven’t booted me once!
Hmmm.
Do you think Red Sox still able to sign Valdez or any of the other top arms like Suarez or Cease.
They ate able to, but I don’t think they’re interested in FA SPs over 30 on long term deals unless they are “elite.” And I don’t think any of these guys are.
You have a strict definition of “elite.”
Cornucopias to all, rumor Pilgrims
Are they able to? Absolutely.
Is that their priority? No. But they could absolutely sign another to a Bregman-like deal if their market does not develop.
The Red Sox have basically added Gray for Giolito. If you believe in quality starts Gray had 20 to Giolitos 14. Gray has been much more durable I look at each being a # 3 or #4 pitcher in a rotation. If the Sox are to seriously contend for a WS. they must add a true # 2 starter. A Peralta,a Ryan. as well as resign Bregman and a slugger. They must add to there roster not just replace or re-up what they already had.
Breslow pulls that off, Sox will be poised to make a multi-year run..gobble gobble
Steamer projects Sonny Gray 10th among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta, among others:
fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=…
muskie – Some silly projections there, especially Wheeler projected 9th despite returning from TOS around the end of May.
He’s got Snell 18th? SMH …..
Sonny Gray and Blake Snell bring different value.
Gray is a bulk pitcher who can help his team into the postseason while Snell could be the prefered postseason starter after missing half of the regular season with injuries.
muskie – But does an innings eater have more value than a guy who is among the best in run prevention?
I mean it’s great that Sonny can stay healthy, but simply showing up is something lots of pitchers can do at a far cheaper price.
It depends on what pitchers are making up the difference between the 180.2 innings Sonny Gray pitched this year and the 61.1 innings Blake Snell pitched. The pitchers making up that 119.1-inning difference are unlikely to perform at Snell’s level (or at Gray’s level, for that matter).
I find it laughable to point to the now 36+ years old Gray having a 2nd place CY voting result 3 seasons ago to justify him as *currently* being a TOR arm.
Rick Porcello *WON* a Cy Young award. Did that make him a top of the rotation arm 3 years later? No it did not. Not even the next season.
Neither is Gray.
I hear what you are saying, but I think Sonny will have a good year as he’s leading into being a free agent/team option in ’27.
cdc – hi !
That’s kinda unfair to Gio, comparing QS, since it took him a couple months to shake off the rust … no?
Yeah Gray will give a lot of innings, which is fine for a #4 or #5.
Gray is not a #4/5 pitcher, at worst a #3.
gbs – I’m not saying he’s a #4 or #5, I’m just saying if innings eater is all that matters then you could get a #4 or #5 to accomplish that.
FPG
Hey , Happy Thanksgiving
Yeah, QS,is a stat I don’t even like.( 4.50 era)Do you not think Gray is an upgrade over Gio ? I do but not by to much. ‘a couple of months ‘ is a third of the season. Will Giolito have to shake off the rust after another arm injury that ended his season.? I like Grays chances of having a good season more than Giolitos. But hopefully this is not the pitching move to upgrade the rotation. It’s not enough. Obviously.
cdc – hi !
Happy Thanksgiving my friend, maybe Theo and Breslow are spending Thanksgiving with the Skubal family … trying to talk him into helping end a 7-year curse?
Gray is an upgrade only because of the health concerns surrounding Gio.
Giolito missed just one start at the end of September, not the same as not pitching for an entire season. LOL
Well you heard Breslow, he said the focus is now on acquiring a hitter. Which means Sonny could be the only SP acquisition.
By all intents and purposes, the RS will be contending at the deadline. Perhaps they are planning to do some #2 starting rotation shopping at that time.
If it is “debatable” that the Red Sox accomplished the goal of acquiring a #2, then they did, whether fans/posters agree or not. Valdez has an attitude problem, and they just cleared the dugout of that. Suarez is definitely not a #2, as K’s aren’t his thing. Cease barely gives you 5 innings. All will require long term commitments at top dollar. Sure, Gray is “debatable” as a #2, but it’s a smart short term move that leaves them flexible in future seasons to acquire better arms.
“and Boston also has plenty of MLB-ready pitching to dangle”
Has the earth left it’s axis? Like wow, a Red Sox team with a bounty of young pitching? While the quality is varied and somewhat unknown, the potential is sufficient to be assets either on the roster or in a trade.
Retsb
Amazing. It has taken many decades,I believe it started around 2004,the Sox finally realized that it took pitching to seriously contend. Now we have a stockpile of arms in the system. I don’t know who said it 1st,but it remains true ,” you can never have enough pitching”. Look at the champion Dodgers,tons of legit pitching,they also had a stacked top of the lineup . $$$$ lol
Theo’s MO was always draft positional players and trade for/sign pitchers. Aside from Lester and Buchholz, the 00s Sox rarely had any homegrown pitchers. That philosophy really left a pitching void the minor leagues.
Swan
Yeah, they had some hits ,like Houck,but big time misses like Jay Groome. He was supposed to be the real deal. Right they have a bunch of major league or near major league arms ready to go. They have a lot of depth ,where in years past it did not seem that way.
Forgot about Papelbon as home grown.
Yeah, Groome had all the makings. Reminds me of others like Michael Bowden, Craig Hanson, Justin Masterson. Lots of misses in those days. And of course the tragic story of Daniel Bard.
Swan
Bard did have a fantastic comeback after mixing 6 years.
Trey Ball and Henry Owens,a couple more misses.
Based on his track record, Boston’s player to be named later will be Roman Anthony.
The Red Sox gave Kyle Schwarber the boot after the 2021 season, buying out his option. I don’t think he’s going back to Beantown.
That was blundering bloom. I dont think it slams the door shut, but it doesnt exactly throw it open either.
Schwarber bats lefty. Barring other major moves, I’d think they’d be more focused on trying to balance the lineup a little.
Schwarber declined the mutual option after a career year in 2021. It was highly likely he would be a free agent when that trade was made.
For Love of the Game…he’s not going to Boston because the Tigers are signing him 😉
Love the move for Gray. One year, relatively inexpensive salary and only redundant prospects went to StL. Kudos to the FO for getting this done so early.
Also kudos for pulling this off while still having the surplus of OFs to offer in other deals. Getting a good SP without using Duran/Abreu sets up trade deals for whichever way they wanna go on the infield or even another SP.
Happy Thanksgiving folks. Go Sox!
Happy Thanksgiving to all! About to gain like 10 pounds over the next few days!
Its been an extremely slow offseason
0 signings besides naylor
Cb
Naylor was the player I really wanted the Red Sox to sign. Seattle did very well retaining his services.
That’s par for the course with baseball. Ironically, the Winter Meetings are when things start to get hot.
Any Black Friday deals on this site?
Reading back on the Thanksgiving-weekend Snell signing, his deal had a team option for 2030 kick in if he spends 90 days on the DL. Seems like he already exceeded that, so should we consider him under control for 5 more seasons? Obviously not a burning question that has to be answered now, and apologies if it has been already…
“was a second-place Cy Young finisher as recently as 2023 in Minnesota. However, Gray hasn’t pitched at that same level in 2024-25, ”
He was better in 24 and 25?
Year FIP-, xFIP-
2023 66, 85
2024 79, 70
2025 84, 75
Is there any difference to glean from using FIP-, xFIP- over FIP+, xFIP+ ??? Thnx
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
FIP → How good is the pitcher at the stuff they control?
xFIP → Same thing, but pretending home-run luck is normal.
FIP+ / xFIP+ → Same as above, but “higher is better.”
FIP- / xFIP- → Same as above, but “lower is better.”