The Orioles are among the clubs in conversations with the Marlins about hard-throwing starter Edward Cabrera, report Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. There’s been a decent amount of smoke regarding a potential Cabrera trade over the past week, and The Athletic writes that Miami’s talks with other clubs have picked up.
Cabrera is one of the higher-upside arms in the sport. He got out to a slow start but turned in a 2.95 earned run average while striking out 26.5% of opponents in 20 appearances between the beginning of May and the end of August. Cabrera has always had power stuff, but he dialed in his control and walked fewer than 7% of batters faced over that four-month stretch. The 27-year-old righty was one of the more intriguing deadline trade candidates, but Miami never received an offer they found compelling.
Holding Cabrera was defensible given his talent and extended window of affordable team control. It wasn’t without risk, though, particularly from a health perspective. Cabrera has battled shoulder issues in the past, and he’d never topped 100 MLB innings in a season before this year. While the shoulder wasn’t an issue in 2025, he was diagnosed with an elbow sprain at the beginning of September. It briefly raised fears about a possible Tommy John surgery. He instead wound up missing only three weeks and returned to make two starts to finish the season.
The Marlins wouldn’t have brought Cabrera back for two largely meaningless games if they felt he were at a serious risk of re-injury. (Miami was still mathematically alive in the Wild Card race into the season’s final week but never had a real chance of getting to the playoffs.) Cabrera didn’t look any worse for wear. His fastball was back up around 98 MPH on average, and he punched out seven Mets hitters across five scoreless innings in the season’s final game.
Miami has nevertheless remained open to offers that would swap a starter for much needed offensive help. They’ve taken Eury Pérez off the table but are willing to discuss the rest of their rotation. Cabrera has the highest trade value of that group. He’s under club control for three seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $3.7MM salary.
The Fish could swap Cabrera for hitting while opening the season with a rotation comprising Pérez, Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer. They have Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto as depth options and top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White looming in the high minors. They’d probably look to add a more stable source of innings at the back end, but it’d still be a high-ceiling group.
Baltimore and Miami have already lined up on one huge pitching for offense swap in recent years. The Marlins sent Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby at the 2024 deadline. It initially looked lopsided in Miami’s favor with Stowers’ emergence as an impact bat. Rogers’ late-season dominance this year is potentially rebalancing the scales. The Orioles still need to raise the ceiling of the rotation alongside Rogers and Kyle Bradish, while their controllable infield talent (e.g. Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo) aligns nicely with Miami’s needs.
This makes a lot of sense. Not an O’s fan but I hope they get this done a) for their sake, and b) so the Yankees don’t.
A substantial trade, or more, will be a part of this offseason for Elias.
I would imagine the O’s will look to deal from a surplus of 1B talent, among other places.
Surplus of what? No o value to Mountcastle, who was widely expected to be nontendered. His expected final arb contract will be about his value.
Mayo is limited to first, has no defensive value, and has 360 unproductive PAs so far. There’s value there, but not enough to get something good.
Teams don’t give up good starters for a pile of low value players, they want a headliner. Mayo used to be, but is no longer.
I heard the same narrative for Stowers. Look how that turned out.
It happens, but very few guys bloom late like that after 350 lousy PAs with an ops + of 70. Norm is that by that time, they are who they are.
Tons of teams would love to have Mayo. He still has plenty of trade value.
Yes, but not nearly enough to headline a deal for a postseason pitcher. Maybe 1/2.
Mayo’s defense is decent at first base
He showed marked improvement there as the season went on
The Marlins would love to have Mayo, even more so than Westburg (more control years, more power upside).
I love Eddy Cabrera and will break my heart seeing him play for other team, but I think it just make sense for both sides.
A month or so ago, I proposed a Mayo-for-Weathers trade just because it makes sense.
Weathers threw 38 innings and 3 years of control. That’s not nearly enough for Coby Mayo.
Nor does Weathers do much for Baltimore. He’s another starter that can’t be counted on for innings. The O’s just traded a guy with higher upside and the same concerns: (GRod)
He plays 1st. That in and of itself means that a player is relatively useless for defense. You get nearly as much negative war for 1st as for dh.
Well, you can argue that but the season before getting traded, Rogers had a whole 18 innings in 2023; also acknowledging we had two 100+ innings seasons before the trade and over 100 innings that same season.
But also, does Mayo have more trade value than Norby had at that time? Maybe he does, but not by a lot.
My trade proposal was actually Weathers + Bender for Mayo and a throw-in.
Got me thinking, I figured Westburg has double the value of Mayo. To be sure, I checked the trade values site. Not perfect but a pretty good model. Yup, more than 2x.
So many guys hit AAA but can’t hit MLB. Once you can, your value rockets. When you can’t for 350 PAs ala Mayo, it drops hard.
So while I’m at it, Norby could play a position vs Mayo can’t (1st is for those who can’t). Mayo 350 PAs 78 ops+ ouch, tho minors a nice 137% of league ops+.
Norby at trade 30 PAs don’t even apply, minors 125% of league ops+.
Go to fangraphs minors stats page and see a list of the many guys hit like Mayo in the minors 10 years ago. A whole lot of unfamiliar names with a few stars and journeymen mixed in. Still a lottery ticket
Mayo hit very well in the last month of the year. Not every hitter comes up and figures it out immediately. Go check Austin Riley.
Mayo is risky but he did show he could hit ML pitching at seasons end. Elias needs to determine if that’s for real or if he should cash in after Mayo was able to lift his stock up a bit again.
Geez, 44, you want to value a guy on a month?
I hope you’re right, trend is his friend, but gotta live in Realityville. odds are sharply against. For every Riley there’s 5 guys, maybe 10.
Odds are he isn’t even Mountcastle, who was a bit above avg after that many ABs rather than below 80.
I challenge your 350 AB number. It’s pretty arbitrary. The more traditional number among baseball coaches and player dev is that players need 1000-1500 ABs to adjust to the majors. At 350 ABs that’s barely one turn around the league. It’s just one adjustment cycle for pitchers to get a book on you, and learn your holes.
And there’s plenty of guys who clicks after the 1000 AB mark. If you’re expecting a prospect to start hitting within 350 ABs you’re basically expecting them to hit the ground running, and start becoming a full major leaguer in the same year they debut. It happens, but to me, that’s the rarer use case than prospects needing some time to adjust to the majors.
Just to be clear with both saj and 44:
Westburg has more trade value than Cabrera, that’s why I think a trade between them is simply not posible. The Marlins want players for Cabby, they won’t use him as a partial pay.
Conversely, Mayo is less valuable than Cabrera, and that’s why I think a trade is very much doable, if the O’s include a prospect (mid to high-ranked) or a reliever. Mayo can have a ton of potential, but his “small” sample is no bueno, just like Norby at that time.
The situation with Mayo is that his value is still somehow high, therefore trading him now makes sense since M’castle and Basallo are already in the roster. I think it should be a win-win.
Your terms are acceptable.
Acceptable to me but I think Marlins want more as a headliner rather than making up half the value with AA prospects. They probably would want an animal as a headliner – a beaver or a cow.
Most hitters are who they are by 300. Going back, here are the ones with 78 +-5 wrc+ for 300 rookie ABs:
2019 Wikerson, Castro, Stewart, Dwight Smith, Rengifo, Dixon, Senzel.
2018 5 more of same
2017 3 more of same.
Worse than I thought, that’s pretty much 0 for 15. I thought I’d find one or two.
Oh, his 350 included awful ’24 cuppa coffee.
So just comps for his ’25. 250 ab rookies ’17-19 wrc+ within 5 of Mayo:
23 guys, the only careers are Renfroe Naylor Garver Bader Tellez, 3 avg bats and 2 nice 115s.
That’s still a really rotten prospect.
Cowser is not good. Those K issues are real and I don’t think fixable. I’d wave goodbye to him quickly.
Aloha folks, I’d like Cabrera for the Cubs but he’d cost a lot in player/prospect capital. If Baltimore can get him, good for them. Strong young controllable arm, I think he only gets better with time. Mahalo
Westy ain’t going nowhere. He’s soul and glue of the team. Look how much better they are when he’s not on the IL. His contributions go further than his play on the field.
I like Westy, and I want him to stay on the field. I’m not sure I can trust that he will though. At the same time, is this the guy you go after if you are going to dangle Westy? Its difficult to say. Cabrera is definitely a talented dude though.
Scruff, who plays 3B if they trade him? Also, Westy’s injuries were more fluky than chronic (HBP, bad mattress at ST lol, etc).
Cabrera also scares me with the injuries. I’ll trade Mayo obviously with an Alonso signing, but I’m still not sure Cabrera would be my 1st pick. I try to package Mayo with a close to MLB ready arm or top 10 prospect and get a guy that’s less risky. Os need reliability and innings next year
I mean they don’t have an obvious up and coming 3b, it would probably mean sending Mayo back to third. Which is not ideal at all given that they were already trying to convert him to 1st. I agree though, Westy has proven productive when he is healthy, Mayo finally showed some improvement at the very end of the season offensively. If you do sign Alonso, Mayo would be the ideal guy to trade for an arm as he is far less proven.
But I’m also predicating this on the hope that Westy can play more than 107 games in a season because the talent for a great player is obviously there. If the price for Edwards includes Westy, I think you have to balk at it and find the arm you want elsewhere. I don’t think Edwards (much as I like the talent) is the guy to entice you to trade Westburg, even if he himself has had some health issues.
100% agree re Westy–he goes nowhere.
I’m in the same camp. I feel like Westburg is highly underrated, especially by some fans. The team is better with him on it and in the lineup. A lot of fans will moan but I hope they sign Alonso and then trade Mayo + for a controllable starter. They can then go after Imai and there are two upgrades to the rotation plus a legitimate RH power bat.
I guess they can do a similar type approach if they are as involved with Tucker as reported – and then package a Cowser or Beavers for the controlled starter.
There are a few different ways they could approach this with the trades and free agent acquisition(s) so it’ll be interesting and hopefully exciting.
Obviously Mike Elias plans on remaking the Astros.
He’ll sign Tucker, Bregman, and Framber. 😆
(Thus enabling all sorts of trade packages for controllable SP to finish it off)
lolololol
Ha! I don’t know why exactly but I’d prefer they not go near Bregman.
I know he could move elsewhere on the dirt (which would necessitate a trade of Jackson or Gunnar, neither of which I want traded) but I’m extremely content with Westburg at third.
Dont like it. Just got rid of one often injured pitcher, why bring in another? Would be different if we were talking about alcantara.
This could be a really good match for both, sides. Especially if the O’s do sign Alonso, it does make some younger players more expendable.
Cabrera is definitely intriguing but I’m not sure I would be willing to offer enough to actually get it done. The stuff is great but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season yet and the results have been pretty inconsistent when he has been on the field.
True, we may well just be inviting more risk right after we get two of our best pitchers back from prolonged injury recoveries. Depends on the price if I’m being honest.
I can live with the injury risk to get the upside if someone less risky is also acquired, like Merrill Kelly, but I am guessing Miami will want more than I would be willing to offer for Cabrera at this point.
Buy! Cabrera is a monster, not just stuff wise, but his make up. Killer attitude on the mound. Let’s not have Elias miss another Crochet.
Get Cabrera please!
This guy is nowhere close to Crochet in stuff or ability.
Cabrera gets people out with offspeed pitches and relies heavily on batters chasing. Crochet can get guys out the zone with his elite fastball. (Crochet can get you out a lot of different ways) Cabrera’s heater gets hit hard. He used it way less and instead went with a sinker. Which was better but not good.
This isn’t a rising star to me. A middle of the rotation arm with shotty control.
Baltimore_44 — How so? Please offer some evidence of “nowhere close”. Thanks.
Just write a blanket article. Every team interested in every player.
Hi, you know the name of this website, right?
Os are not trading Westburg. Yes he’s had some injuries but while healthy he’s their most valuable player.
Generally I don’t believe in trading first tier regulars for a pitcher that probably needs TJ in two years. Use free agency to create pitching depth
Nope…Henderson much more valuable position player
Gunnar is way better than Westy. Westy is a glue guy and a solid regular who I have no expectation would be available in any talks.
Westburg not being dealt.
Westburg for Cabrera & Norby
Let’s see some action Os
I dont like it a lot but like it better than nothing. But agree I am not wanting to part with much and probably what it would take. Its a shame Eury is off the table.
Mayo had a real nice period of time where he was hitting for power without a terrible average. I think its too soon to say he wont be a good or great major league player. Would not want to trade him for Cabrera. Joe Ryan, yes.
Would not be willing to trade Westburg for Cabrera either. He does have a feel like he may be the most valuable hitter. It can be seen when he returns from injury. The club has a different vibe. Gunnar may put up some nicer stats but not substantially in 2025 and seems like there are some issues there with him not being happy and maybe hurting the clubhouse.
Before handing over too much in players, think they want to fish in the Valdez Suarez waters where they just give up money and keep players.
No player is truly ever off the table.
I believe it’s who they can get signed that will determine who they trade.
I will say signing Alonso will make the lineup scary.
I wouldn’t give up too much for a 5 inning guy. That’s a recipe for bullpen disaster, and right now the Os are missing at least 2 for the pen and 2 for the starting rotation
Oh god no. Hearing chatter about Gore. He would be worth Mayo.
Man I like ECab a lot, if he’s available, Yanks should get involved here. Good young pitcher with great stuff.
*O’s may have the better package to give though if they choose to move the right pieces.
Both teams have a decent trade relationship with the Marlins, could go either way. Sandy is out there, too…
Mayo is a reclamation project-1.5 to 2yrs late as headliner for a controllable cheap SP. Marlins can get better top piece from others that will sting.
Mayo is 24. He has had 300 MLB at bats. Dont think we are looking at reclamation. That sounds more like a guy with a lot of miles on him that did not realize his potential. In September Mayo hit .301 with a .393 OBP and a .941 OPS. Last 15 days of the season he had a 1.088 OPS .371 AVG. To me that sounds like a guy who got off to a rough start just trying to learn how to play at the major league level. Not saying he will always be that September guy but I think it demonstrates he can potentially really produce at the MLB level, that he is not a career .217 hitter.
I have waited for Cabrera for almost 8 years since he was an exciting teenager. He is absolutely elite. I would hate to see him go, but I like what Bendix is doing. He will get what he wants or no deal. If he stays, an excellent staff becomes as deep as any in baseball. Remember, at the end of the day, PITCHING WINS.
They just got rid of a severe injury risk. Why did they want another one?