With Framber Valdez now a free agent and the rotation still smarting from an injury-plagued season, the Astros are known to exploring the market for young, controllable starting pitching. As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, pitchers on Houston’s radar includes the Pirates’ Mike Burrows, and Red Sox left-handers Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.
Adding to the intrigue is Boston’s interest in Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, as Rosenthal writes that the Red Sox view Paredes as a candidate to play third base, or to cover first base if Alex Bregman re-signs with the team. “Bregman still appears to be the Red Sox’s No. 1 target,” according to Rosenthal, but the Sox are casting a wide berth for other infield candidates in the event that Bregman signs elsewhere.
Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary via the arbitration process this winter, and he has one further year of arb control remaining as a Super Two player. Between these two years of affordable control, Paredes’ ability to handle either corner infield slot as well as second base, and his potent bat makes him a valuable asset, though he has already been traded four times in his career, including twice within the last 18 months. The Rays dealt Paredes to the Cubs at the 2024 deadline, and Chicago then included Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster last winter.
In his first season in Houston, Paredes spent two months on the injured list due to a severe hamstring strain, but mostly lived up to expectations by hitting .254/.352/.458 with 20 home runs over 438 plate appearances. As such, Astros GM Dana Brown said last month that moving Paredes “would be weakening our lineup. So right now, we have no interest in trading him.”
Of course, the “right now” left the door open, and the lure of one of Boston’s young southpaws could make the Astros more amendable to a trade. Moving Paredes would have the side benefit of clearing some space within the crowded Houston infield, which has Paredes, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Carlos Correa all lined up for four infield positions since the Astros are planning to primarily use Yordan Alvarez as the DH. Dealing Paredes also shaves $9.3MM off of the payroll, freeing up more money for the Astros to address other needs.
Early and Tolle each made their MLB debuts in 2025. A second-round pick in the 2024 draft, Tolle made it to the Show just 13 months after his draft date, thanks to some standout numbers at three different levels of Boston’s farm system. It might have been a bit too much too soon for Tolle, as he posted a 6.06 ERA across his first 16 1/3 innings in the bigs, and the Sox soon transitioned him into a bullpen role both in September and for the Wild Card Series against the Yankees.
Early, a fifth-round pick from the 2023 draft, made the better first impression, delivering a 2.33 ERA, 46.7% grounder rate, 5.1% walk rate, and 36.1% strikeout rate across four starts and 19 1/3 innings. Due in part to a lack of healthy rotation depth, the Red Sox even entrusted Early with the start in the pivotal Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, and the young southpaw was tagged for four runs (three earned) over 3 2/3 innings in a 4-0 New York victory that ended Boston’s season.
The Sox wouldn’t normally have much interest in moving either of these highly-touted young hurlers, and it might still be unlikely that either Tolle or Early are actually dealt. However, the additions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo have added to Boston’s rotation depth, and those two pitchers now look set to join Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello as the top four in the projected rotation. This leaves Tolle and Early as two of several pitchers (i.e. Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison and more) competing for perhaps just one rotation job.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier and other reporters that the club had indeed received calls about their starters, as “I think teams have recognized that there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching. If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”
The Red Sox and Pirates lined up on a notable pitching-for-hitting trade earlier this week, as Oviedo was the primary return heading to Boston while the Bucs picked up a promising young outfielder in Jhostynxon Garcia. In the wake of that trade, Rosenthal wrote that Pittsburgh was still willing to discuss trading other starters besides Paul Skenes, and Pirates GM Ben Cherington said the same Monday at the Winter Meetings.
“We’ll have a high bar” for such trades, Cherington told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Colin Beazley and other reporters. “Will more likely consider that if [the return is] something that’s coming back immediately into our lineup. [We’re] also open to adding pitching. We’re not only engaged on position players; we’re talking about adding pitching, too. If we did trade a starter, [it] probably increases the motivation to add back to the pitching also.”
Moving Burrows could therefore be the first step in a chain reaction of moves for the Pirates, who are intent on upgrading their lineup this offseason. This has manifested itself in a surprising pursuit of Kyle Schwarber and interest in other notable free agents and trade targets like Kazuma Okamoto, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan, Jorge Polanco, Ryan O’Hearn, and more.
Entering his age-26 season, Burrows still has less than a full year of MLB service time under his belt. The right-hander made his big league debut in the form a single-game cup of coffee in 2024, and then posted a 3.94 ERA over 96 innings with Pittsburgh this year, starting 19 of his 23 appearances. Burrows backed up his ERA with a solid 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.
Over 291 1/3 innings in the Pirates’ farm system, Burrows had a 3.58 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 9.18 BB%. He missed big chunks of the 2023-24 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery, which is probably why the righty hasn’t gotten as much attention as some of the other top-100 hurlers in the Pirates’ farm system. This could conceivably make Burrows a little more available than the likes of Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington, though only the Bucs know how they’re internally ranking their various rotation candidates.

Would Mayer move to SS or 2B (with Story playing the other) then if they sign a 3B?
Bob – Breslow stated Story would play SS next year. I know, I know …. can’t always believe everything he says though.
Funny how just a few months ago Breslow stated he didn’t make any major trades at the trade deadline because other teams supposedly didn’t “like” the Red Sox player prospects. And now they suddenly do like them?
I wonder if moving Paredes is a step toward attempting to bring Bregman back to Houston …
I think paredes would just make them flexible and still hold leverage in negotiations. He could play either corner, so they can go for Alonso or bregman or bichette and be fine with any of them
Funny how you don’t understand different teams will view the same player differently. The Sox weren’t looking to deal with Houston at the trade deadline as the Astros were also in contention and weren’t about to trade major league players for prospects.
ken – I wasn’t referring to Houston specifically, I was referring to Breslow’s quote which implies many/all teams:
“I think teams have recognized that there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching.”
So none of the teams recognized that appeal 5 months ago, but they recognize it now? Seems like Breslow just got caught in a lie. Sounds like the “teams didn’t like our players” statement he made after the trade deadline was just an excuse for doing nothing more than acquiring Matz and May.
And BTW two contenders WILL make trades with each other midseason if they both can trade surplus for a need.
And that absolutely was not the case with Boston and Houston no matter how much you want it to be the case. You also discount the fact that both Tolle and Early were promoted to the majors and acquitted themselves rather well down the stretch AFTER the trade deadline, boosting their perceived value to other teams.
ken – With all due respect, that doesn’t make sense.
I just said Breslow was referring to all teams, not just Houston. So your first mistake is still assuming I meant just Houston.
Tolle bombed in the majors. You think a 6.06 ERA and 1.592 WHIP actually impressed other teams? Seriously? I don’t remember you ever saying something so absurd before.
And BTW the Sox have PLENTY of other young pitching prospects besides Early and Tolle, which you apparently don’t realize.
Correa is the Astros 3rd baseman. They are not bringing Bregman back. They would prefer to trade Walker than Paredes, but are desperate for young pitching. Personally, as a longtime Astros fan, I would trade with Boston. I would look to move Paredes/Walker for Tolle/Casa if Boston lost their minds. Red Sox could then move on from Bregman and add 50+ homers to their lineup, while the Astros get younger with potential.
Lrt – You don’t think Correa could handle SS or 2B? Bregman insisted he could play 2B as well. Astros never took their longterm contract offer to him off the table until he signed with Boston, I think that proved they would find room for a beloved longtime franchise icon.
no FPG the person caught in a lie was you. When did Breslow say no one liked the sox prospects at the deadline?
Also it’s possible that guys like Early made improvements since then? And crapping on Tolle after 2 starts and 16 innings? Teams have a lot more sense than that to not use such small sample size when it comes to player evaluation
“When did Breslow say no one liked the Sox prospects at the deadline?”
Hmm, I don’t know, maybe when he went out and said that he was willing to trade the entire farm system and no other teams found that compelling enough to make a deal with him?
masslive.com/redsox/2025/08/craig-breslow-explains….
Dirty – Thank you!! Hard to believe after all these years that anyone (and I have no idea who) would challenge something that I’ve written Sox management has said. They must be new here and not familiar with my posts I guess? I’m being nice for the Christmas season ;O)
“Teams have to like our players” – Breslow explaining why no impact deals were made at the trade deadline.
FPG – I’ll get this statement officially on the record, I’m over Breslow as CBO. He hasn’t learned how to communicate. There’s the issues you mentioned, but also I saw statements yesterday where he said something like the team wils goal is to compete for a world series, and they will compete to win a world series. That’s not the right messaging. Drop the compete. The goal is to win a world series. Every major league team is competing for one.
I am thankful he focused on building pitching from the ground up but still.
DW04: Thanks for that good masslive article. There are a lot of good quotes from Breslow in there.
“A lot of the industry does appreciate the young players we have in our system,” Breslow said. “We tried to work through different combinations of guys. We didn’t approach some of these conversations as though any players were off-limits. We couldn’t line up. We were pursuing multiple impact players. On the other side, teams that were operating as sellers were trying to juggle different concepts. For whatever reason, we weren’t able to line up.”
You should read all the quotes from Breslow in the masslive article and not just focus on one sentence he said.
ALL – I cant say that everything Breslow has done is bad. He traded for and extended Crochet, Worked out with Chapman, and found Narvaez.. I like the Gray move.
On the other hand, the Devers fiasco, getting absolutely used by Boras with bregman, trading Quinn Priester, signing Sandoval, dfa’ing Buehler and Criswell. More than anything else, I can not forgive him for only bringing in May and Matz last year in a wide open A.L.
All in all, on a POBO level, i would call it inconsistent, which i think is fair..
On the other hand, the constant lying and communications breakdowns are becoming an impediment to the team’s success. And, while he is the front man right now, i think the problem runs deeper than that. i think Kennedy thinks he’s Theo Epstein (he’s not), and i think that Fenway Sports Group is a business entity that doesn’t give a rat’s behind about its interpersonal relationships in a business that includes humans (sorry, spreadsheet analysts).
J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Devers, whatever the heck happened in the negotiations with Teoscar Hernandez, and now everything that is happening across the pond with Mo Salah, the FSG is showing its true colors and its not pretty.
I wonder if, after winning four championships, the goal is no longer to win the World Series, or is it to build Fenway Corners, and oh yeah, just be competitive. Because right now, i’m not convinced that the World Series is priority one.
Sad – Breslow’s recent comments sum it up perfectly.
“Our goal is to compete for a World Series”
“We’re approaching 2026 as though we’re trying to build a team that can compete to win the World Series,”
The goals should be
“Our goal is to win the World Series”
“We’re approaching 2026 as though we’re trying to build a team that can win the World Series”
I thought maybe the first quote was a slip, like trying to not put too much pressure on the team. But doubling down on the “compete” instead of saying that their goals are to win is very concerning.
Joemo – that must be the word they use internally. That’s why long term scouts get pissed off enough to insult their boss and get fired.
Dirty, at no point in that article does Breslow imply that no one wanted the sox prospects. Again if you followed the team you’d know that the Twins were asking for talent off the MLB roster for Joe Ryan and the Sox balked at that. that’s massive reach to say that every team not willing to trade with him that I hoped you stretched before saying that.
But thanks for proving me right and FPG and yourself wrong.
Whoever made the Sale trade is a idiot.
I love the Devers salary dump and they even got talent back for it.
I love both Priester trades. Wish he would have used the pick on one of the hs arms I liked but the point is they got the pick. College arm could be great if at nothing else as a reliever. But Yorke for Priester was a steal. Priester is just a guy. Not a guy I want in playoffs. Rather have Gray Oviedo.
We know the Pirates liked at least 2 of their prospects. They could have got Oviedo at the very least. Seems possible tinkering around a lil they could have got Bednar.
Sad – I think it’s way too soon to call the Crochet and Narvaez trades as wins. Have you seen Elmer’s numbers in AA? Certainly the trades look good so far, time will tell.
Just another example of how worthless the front office’s words are ….. John Henry criticizing Red Sox fans for supposedly “expecting to win the World Series every year” and then him saying it’s hard to win because the “odds are 1-in-20 or 1-in-30” which is total crap obviously.
Red Sox Nation just wants their team to contend nearly every year, as the 4th-highest revenue team should. The Dodgers and Yankees have contended nearly every year, why not the Red Sox?
Here’s the quote: “”Because fans expect championships almost annually, they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30”
And here’s the link for morons who want to challenge me:
bleacherreport.com/articles/10124026-red-soxs-john…
Sad – The Red Sox will probably be the first MLB team to replace their scouts with robotics, just like the first three or so rounds of interviews with the Red Sox are conducted by AI and not humans. Anything to save money and prevent independent thought.
Sums up exactly how I feel, FPG. No, I actually don’t expect a WS every year. I don’t even expect them to be “all in” every single year. I know that’s crazy and impossible and I can accept that there will be an ebb and flow between years where they should be all in and years where it makes sense to be less aggressive.. All I ever ask is that they are making an honest effort to try to put together a team with a chance. For how expensive it is to be a fan of this team that is the least they could do.
Dirty – theres an old phrase, “man makes plans and God laughs”. All of the plannings, and bridge years, and resets…….sometimes its just right in front of you.
The American League was wide open at the trade deadline and last year and Breslow brought in May and Matz. That’s why I cant take him seriously.
Dirty – My thoughts, for the resources the Red Sox have and the expanded postseason field, they should be in the playoffs at least 4 out of every 5 years. That’s all I ask, just get in the postseason like the Dodgers and Yankees almost always do.
Sad – Let’s not forget last year’s trade deadline when Breslow/Kennedy said they were GFIN by acquiring a SP and a RHB ….. they ended up with Ramirez, Paxton, Hill and Jansen …. all cheap, and combined cost the Sox virtually nothing prospect-wise … no different than the 2022 and 2023 deadlines.
FPG – I still would like to give Breslow the benefit of the doubt (against my better judgement), but my gut is he doesnt seem to have the baseballs to do it…….I am so done with Kennedy, he wants to be Theo so badly, and he definitely is not.
Breslow needs to show me this off season. We cantgo into yet another season with an unsettled roster. This is a good team. Because of Crochet it is a playoff team. But, imho, its not a W.S. team
Plenty of off season still. Lets go Sox!!
Sad – This is already Breslow’s 3rd offseason, which means he likely has one more left to prove himself. Then it’s Cora in charge of Baseball Ops!
Sam seems to get creepier as he ages, that creepy smile and he’s always smirking and laughing even during serious discussions. Classic example of needing only one person to like you, the boss.
FPG – i hadn’t gotten the creepy vibe before…….now i do
LOL
I wish they would just let Breslow cook for one or two years with none of the self imposed constraints or meddling from above. Give him the green light to spend up to about $250 million and leave everything up to him. We will find out very quickly if he is worth keeping around past the 4 year mark or not.
Dirty – I agree, however, based on recent events in Liverpool it seems to me that FSG is deeply engrained in personnel level moves.
Dirty – I would think by now the training wheels would be off, but who knows …. a big reason why owners prefer hiring young and inexperienced management is so they can mold them exactly the way the owner wants them to be.
Based on Joon’s scathing exposé, Breslow has been a disaster but he still has the backing of Henry (and in turn Sam).
However if they need a scapegoat in a year or two, Bres is gone.
Did you forget the Astros 2B is Altuve lol.
The Sox front office is full of hot air and BS we all know that, yet I’ll still be going to opening day paying $230 for bleacher seats…. smh
Don’t think so.
They have Correia at 3rd. The whole reason they’d trade Paredes is because they have a log jam at third. Bregman isn’t a fit in Houston
123 – Are you saying Correa can’t play SS or 2B?
What about Bregman at 2B, he insisted he could play 2B, was he lying?
Yes. Mayer likely playing 2nd, or splitting time at 2nd with Romy, if they sign a 3rd baseman.
Paredes can play 1st, 2nd or 3rd though, so heb would wouldn’t block signing another infield bat.
The Mets need pitching. Would they consider Baty or Vientos for Tolle or Early?
Mets sure would. Red Sox wouldnt
Red Sox would take Baty for a pitching prospect. The Mets wouldn’t make that trade.
You’re correct re: Vientos.
@Brad – They might trade “a pitching prospect” for Baty but it’s not going to be one of the ones at the top of their system (Tolle, Early, Pareles, or Witherspoon). Baty has had one league average season; before last season both his offense and his defense have been solidly before average and he’s been a replacement level player.
Baty also has top-of-the-scale contact quality metrics. He’s an exciting talent, a LHH Yandy Diaz capable of playing second and third–two positions the Red Sox need.
He’s not a perfect fit for the Red Sox (they’re already so left-handed), but Baty’s easily worth a top-tier pitching prospect. Don’t forget the failure rate of pitchers. How many times have we seen a farm system’s “Big Three” go bust? I think I could name examples from 20 teams. Or the one guy who does work takes four years, a major injury, and a new org before he figures it out.
If you have an opportunity to trade pitching prospects for young hitters, you should generally take it. TINSTAAPP remains true. The Red Sox in particular also have more pitchers than they can ever use. Sell high while you can.
They could also turn around and package Baty and Tolle for Ketel.
^All of which is moot. Neither team is talking about this trade. I only jumped in to note that Baty and Vientos are not remotely equivalent. One is a legitimately desirable asset who should easily merit a good pitching prospect in trade, and the other is an interesting lotto ticket who would merit a couple hard-throwing 18-year-olds.
Selling high on a pitching prospect when you have so many is a valid decision; trading one for Baty is not selling high. And he’s a career .232 hitter, who makes below average contact both inside and outside the zone, has an above average whiff rate, and strikes out 26% of the time. What in the world are you talking about comparing him to Yandy Diaz?
If we get Paredes for Burrows and some other low-level prospect and then spend some of that money we likely won’t need to give to Schwarber when he just returns to the Phillies, the Pirates could legitimately contend.
Astros would need alot more for Paredes than a wild card and a dart throw.
Sox are playing chess this offseason – several irons in the fire. Reminiscent of days-gone-by and a positive sign.
I don’t see the Astros moving Parades unless they rob another team. He was easily their best player before he got injured last year. He seemed like the only player who knew how to work a count up.
Wilyer Abreu would have to be in the convo for the stros to move on from Parades to the sox.
Paredes+ for Duran/Abreu probably makes the most sense for both teams.
Perhaps Abreu+Crawford for Paredes+Janek+Ullola
No. The Astros don’t need OF, and Crawford is crap when put in a trade for Parades, Janek, and Ullola.
Add an actually good starting pitching prospect that the Astros. You are offloading crap and just 1 asset for 3 assets.
@Astros27!
Crawford isn’t a young high upside guy, but as has been widely discussed here, Paredes isn’t good enough (and/or controllable/cheap enough) for one of those guys.
Crawford had a couple of dumb injuries (not taking care of a previous injury and then breaking his wrist at home) last year but is a safe bet to be a #3/4 starter for the next 3 years on an affordable salary. (~2.75mil in 2026) That’s far from ‘junk’.
Fangraphs has the Astros’ top 4 OFers currently as Cole, Smith, Alvarez and Meyers. To an outsider that looks like 2 question marks, a quality backup and a DH. (Although I do think Meyers may be underrated)
Even if that might be a good trade in your mind, Dana Brown won’t sell low on Parades like that. Any trade involving Parades will be the Astros selling and he’s the only piece that’s going to the other team, the trade package is going to be a godfather offer, unless it’s for someone like Skubal or Skenes (which the Astros aren’t getting).
Highly unlikely but I’d hold out until Early + is offered. Don’t see the Sox doing it but I can wish
That’s why I said Tolle and Early for Parades. It robs the Red Sox, that or something like that is Parades haul for Brown t oaccpet
@MegaMan and @Astros27!
I can understand the emotion of wanting a large return for Paredes as he was a key piece in the Kyle Tucker trade, but he’s already lost one year of control since then and Smith was likely just as large a piece of that deal (think you guys did quite well in that trade).
Also, you two seem quite attached to a player whose name you have consistently misspelled.
Smith was the prize. Parades was the current piece, and Wesneski was the depth piece. I’m seeing very stupid trades from other fans.
I’m want a large return from Parades because well, I do. The other things is that Dana Brown also wants a godfather offer.
Some said the Astros would give up Paredes and get Mike Burrows in a 3 player trade. My first one was likely ridiculous, yes I see that now. However, some other people are also being ridiculous. Kutter Crawford and Wilyer Abreu for Walker Janek, Miguel Ulllola, and Issac Paredes it.
I just realized I misspelled Paredes and thanks for pointing that out. In one year, Paredes has become one of my favorite players on the Astros and I don’t want to let him go lightly. Yes there is emotion, but it’s also true that Dana Brown also wants a large return. It’s not only me.
I don’t see how Abreu and Crawford for those three would be ridiculous. As has been well discussed Paredes isn’t enough to get Abreu and seeing as neither of those two prospects are ‘elite’ or ranked by and of the major prospect sites, they’re unlikely individually to bring back a cheap #4 starter with 3 years of control. So adding the 2nd prospect was meant to narrow the gap between two other trades which would be too weak from the Astros side otherwise.
There’s nothing wrong with liking a player and not wanting to trade him. Paredes is a good piece to have given his ability to play multiple positions. Just try to remember that many of us are trying to present reasonable trades based on prospect rankings and past trades, if you don’t like them it’s not because they’re ridiculous, it’s just that you don’t like them, and again, that’s fine.
You might think it’s a good trade, but if you actually know the Astros, you know the Astros won’t make the trade.
1. Janek is the catcher after Diaz, if they feel like they can trade Diaz after Janek comes up, they trade Diaz not Janek.
2. They will try to use Ullola for a bigger piece
3. They won’t sell low on Paredes like that
4. They don’t need OF
5. They need a more front starter, not a back end.
That’s fair. A ‘fair’ trade in a vacuum doesn’t always mean it fits the individual teams.
The trades being discussed were strictly around the Astros needing an OFer. I already pointed out that they seem to have two question marks, a backup (who I like) and a DH for their outfield, so it looks like a major need from an outside perspective. Why do you think it is not?
Obviously every team would like a front end starter. Red Sox are about 14 deep in the rotation currently. Is the Astros starting depth really that good? Who are the backend guys you’re counting on?
Here are all the Astros starting pitchers.
Hunter Brown, Brandon Walter, Jason Alexander, Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, Nate Pearson, Ryan Weiss, Miguel Ullola, AJ Blubaugh, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski Colton Gordon, Lance McCullers Jr., JP France.
#1=RHP Hunter Brown
#2-Outside Accquistion
#3-Cristian Javier
#4-Spencer Arrighetti
#5-Everyone Else.
Blubaugh and Ullola would be competing for roster spots IF command improves. Blanco and Wesneski are injured but would be mid rotation starters (won’t return till later 2026),
I’m not sure if Alexander can replicate what he had, France hasn’t had an extended look since surgery, Gordon is still developing, and I do not trust McCullers Jr. at all.
The Astros need a #2 starter and they likely want to overflow on starting pitching. According to the rumor mill, IF they get Shane Baz, he will be your #2. The starters listed here are going to be mid-rotation (if traded for) in 2026, and for Tolle and Early (if traded), future top rotation starters at best.
How I see it is that the Astros want to stock up on “young starters” for the future, and one of the “young starters” that they get will be the No. 2 starter.
Thanks for the detailed write-up.
I wouldn’t be as confident in that setup as you are. There are a few interesting arms with upside (I would include Arrighetti in that group), a few guys who seem to barely be getting by in the upper minors and likely will never become MLB starters, a solid number 3 who missed most of the previous two seasons with injury and an ace who may be more of a strong #2 type.
With good luck & health and with the upside arms I can see a solid group, but if it goes the other way, it could get pretty bleak. In my opinion your rotation needs both a #2 and backend starter to allow the upside arms to provide depth. Would certainly look more solid though if Framber returned.
I’ve been a big fan of Walter (who was cut by the Red Sox in 2024) as a control over stuff guy. The stuff is limiting but when he’s on the control is so good that it works. Hope it works out for him.
I think Brandon Walter is pretty good, but he’s expected to miss 2026 so I won’t include him in the 2026 plans. Nor will I include Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco until later. The Astros are stocking up on depth, and I still think they need more depth and a #2 starter. I believe the #2 starter is coming by trade, and if FA, Merrill Kelly is the only option that would work for Houston.
Still believe that Blubaugh and Ullola (if traded), are going to be openers and working out of the bullpen in both long relief and high leverage situations if needed.
WCSoxFan, what team are you a fan of?
Anyways, that leaves them with Alexander and Weiss a top rotation candidates. France and McCullers Jr. might be able to prove it (and it’s a very very big might). I still think Gordon is a swingman but we’ll see, he was bad later in the season but everyone was gassed, so see if a fresh start helps him.
Based on how I see Dana Brown, he’s going to try to trade for Shane Baz (it likely will include MLB ready prospects and more MLB players) to be that #2 “co-ace”. Now 3 years of control is going to come at a tough price, but let’s see.
I already said that they will try to stock up on as many depth arms as possible for the future, and I do think they might take some arms that are NOT on the 40-man roster to stock up also on non-roster depth.
Dana Brown’s agenda coming into his final season is to stock up on pitching. They are getting and targeting controllable arms for later this decade as we enter the second half and 2030. Brown wants to make sure that he can stock up on that and possibly deal some arms at the 2026 deadline.
Astros Schedule:
2025-2026: Stock up on young arms
2026-2027/2027-2028: Spend big. Money is coming off the books
The other year should be focused on prospect depth. Obviously it’s a big prediction and likely not going to be how they navigate the offseason, but it’s what I think.
Going back to Paredes. IF Paredes is dealt, he’s going to be dealt for multiple high ceiling arms with lots of control that the Astros like, or maybe a 1-1 swap with the Rays for Shane Baz, but that’s not that likely. It might happen though, who knows…
Speaking of Baz, I think Baz might be dealt for something like Diaz for Baz and prospect or something like that, but Caratini would have to be re-signed first for that to happen. Who knows, again, sit down and wait.
Last question, WCSoxFan, are you a Red Sox fan? If not, what team are you a fan of?
@astros27! Yeah, I’m a Red Sox fan.
Hard to imagine the Rays giving up Baz for only Paredes coonsidering his lack of team control. Diaz may make more sense, but I’m doubtful he would be enough.
The problem with looking for ‘multiple high ceiling arms’ is that every team wants those. Perhaps if you’re willing to take low-level guys with upside, that makes sense, but otherwise a single high-upside guy for Paredes is more reasonable. A Kyle Harrison type, with years of control but a flaw.
What’s your thought on how they’re all-set in the OF? Haven’t seen that anywhere else (generally thought is that they need at least 1 OFer).
I don’t think Paredes for Baz is going to happen because Astros don’t have it. But I do think Diaz for Baz is enough because both have control.
The only problem is that the Astros would have to re-sign Caratini for the trade of Diaz for Baz to happen. But because Astros solve SP and Rays solve C position, it might happen.. If that happens and Astros get Caratini, give him 3 years so he can be the front catcher in case Janek has late debut.
Astros are tearing it down this season?
Altuve, Alvarez, Paredes, Pena, Correa and Walker could be a great.
Sanchez, Smith and Diaz is an advantage in the 7,8,9 — have Matthews, Melton, Trammell and Janek — good prospects.
Bullpen ia stacked. Brown and Javier is a nice 1/2 – a good season out of McCullers isnt out of the question. Weiss could hit. Resign Framber and this team has a shot at winning but trading Parades takes the wind out of that lineup. Parades can hit the ball.
Javier is a No. 2. I would rather not have Astros trade Parades unless it’s a good haul
I meant is NOT. He is a No. 3
Trammell is not a prospect anymore, he’s AAAA
How about a three team deal? Bosox get Paredes, Astros get Burrows, and the Pirates get Abreau? Guessing they would also have to send a prospect back to Boston, as well, but doesn’t seem horribly unrealistic.
Abreu’s only a 2-3 win OFer. I think that actually all balances out. Paredes is better, but comes with less club control. Burrows has full control, but more questions about his effectiveness.
Astros won’t sell low on Parades like that. Try adding Keller and then something
@Brad Johnson Abreu has been worth 5.5 fWAR over the past two years and is on a minimum deal with 4 years of control. Paredes has been worth 5.9 fWAR over the same span and costs 9.3mil with two years of control. Red Sox would need a little more to make it even.
@PiratesFan24 that makes sense for all sides.
That is the most Sox-friendly analysis possible while still passing as reasonable.
I’ll use the same framework and gloss over that Paredes is a RHH power hitter (an extremely rare asset type in the current marketplace) and plays positions the Sox actually need to fill.
Paredes is more than a two-year player and has shown no sign of decline (he’s inconsistent, as most power hitters are). Since his full-time debut, he’s averaged 3.66 WAR/600 PA.
Wilyer, who has never made more than 450 PA in a season, has averaged 3.81 WAR/600 PA, but that’s because he doesn’t play in unfavorable matchups. If you incorporate those, it would look closer to 3 WAR/600 PA. By rostering Abreu, you’re committing to using two roster spots to solve one outfield position. It’s inefficient, and LHH 2-3 WAR OFers are a dime a dozen.
It does help that Abreu is a good defender. That puts a positive shine on things if his bat backs up.
I still don’t think the Astros would trade Parades for just this. They for sure want starting pitching in return
@Brad Johnson
As mentioned already, Paredes has some of the weakest raw power in MLB, but he overcomes it with a flyball pull-swing. So calling him a ‘power hitter’ is a bit disingenuous.
Paredes has been worth 3.26 fWAR/600 compared to 3.86 fWAR/600 for Abreu (not sure what mystery war you are using as you don’t list it). Abreu has been platooned a bit but had still averaged 123 games/season compared to Paredes’ 127 games/season – the game difference alone isn’t creating a great need for another player.
If available 2.75 fWAR outfielders were a ‘dime a dozen’ then why hasn’t even a 2nd been mentioned? There are a total of five free agent OFers who passed this threshold last season and each are much older, and will be much more expensive, than Abreu.
Referring to him simply as a ‘good defender’ is selling a player who has won two gold gloves in two years while featuring one of the strongest arms in MLB a bit short.
But again, the main issues with your analysis was that you undervalued the years of control and completely missed the enormous cost disparity.
@astros27. I’ve come around on trading Parades. As of now Astros have a logjam in the infield (Correa, Parades, Pena, Altuve, Walker). Nobody is giving much for Walker or Altuve, Correa is a steal with the Twins throwing in money, Pena is the heart of the team and should be extended, and that leaves Parades as the odd man out. I wouldn’t sell him cheap but I don’t think it would take a kings random either. Tolle or Early + a prospect id do.
Yeah that’s what I think. Altuve and Correa are franchise cornerstones. But Dana Brown might push the price up. I don’t know what people are thinking where Janek, Ullola, and Parades, is worth Wilyer Abreu and Kutter Crawford.
Some fans have no clue what they are saying and only think about their own teams needs. That fan overrated Crawford. Abreu is valuable but is not getting that haul even when put with a back end starter.
@Megaman and @Astros27
MLB Pipeline and Baseball America rate Tolle as a top 30 prospect. He’s more well regarded than any player the Red Sox gave up for Crochet and a Tolle+ deal would be a package for a player like Kyle Tucker, not Isaac Paredes, who was maybe 50% of the return for Tucker just a year ago and had since lost a year of control. The Astros have a horrible farm system right now (29th to 31st depending on publication) so your #4 & #5 prospects aren’t nearly as good as you think.
It’s rich to see you criticize other posters who are explaining to you the players involved from their team, while not even knowing the name of your own player you keep posting about.
It’s fine to dream or wish cast, but that’s all you guys are doing right now.
Definitely more realistic than Tolle or Early for Paredes
I take it Red Sox fans do not have sober expectations for them.
The team is trying to trade from their surplus of players to make room for the young kids, they’re not looking to trade the young kids away for players with minimal team control left. It’s not so much about what Tolle or Early might be, or what Paredes currently is, it’s about what the front office is trying to do and how they are trying to build a team.
I don’t think that’s what they’re doing at all. They give every indication of a team aiming at a World Series in 2026. Their player development machine is the envy of the league. There is no better time for them to spend down their prospect resources for MLB wins.
If they were all-in on winning this year Breslow wouldn’t be working with limited payroll space, they would have been shooting higher than Sonny Gray for the rotation, and they wouldn’t be fretting over which free agent bats they can get, they’d just drop a bunch of cash on whichever ones they like most.
The Red Sox haven’t been a no-constraints org since the aughts. They’re run to produce large piles of profit. That’s something that happens well above the baseball operations level of the organization.
Which is precisely why they are trying to build a team through drafting, developing, and extending they home grown talent; it’s the most financially lucrative way to build a team, and trading that talent away for short-term assets is how you end up having to play in the free agent market, where they don’t want to be.
Sox-Stros line up, but why trade Paredes now? Smith hasn’t proven much yet at the MLB level.
Burrows may cost less, probably better off going that route.
Correa.
They should trade HIM, lol!
Leadership. Do you not understand what happens behind the field?
DO NOT trade Early. He’s got excellent makeup and stuff. He’s going to be really good, very soon.
So you advise trading later than Early?~
Really good very soon, but not Early?~
(Sorry for the Early morning humor)
Punishing pun so early in the morning!
We heard you bud. Nice job little buddy. Now run along and play, the adults are talking.
I liked your post, make a couple puns with an obvious pun of a last name, and you call me a child.
Seems you need to grow up if you are an adult.
All good man, I was also just foolin’ about. Happy hot stove to ye.
Paredes slugging at the Green Monster would be fun–not that him hitting in front of the Crawford Boxes isn’t…
Paredes has been around the 10th percentile in raw power numbers (bat speed, exit velocity, etc) over the past two years. But he still hit 39 homers due to an extreme flyball (46.3%) and extreme pull (55.3%) swing.
Perfect for Fenway.
Houston is easily the best fit for him, Statcast shows he would have hit 22 HR had he played all his games there last season. Sacramento and Philly were second with 17, Boston/Cincy/Colorado/Dodgers at 16.
Shows that Mayer and Campbell might not be on next WS championship Red Sox club. Heck, even Anthony could be off the club before they win next one.
dlj – It would not surprise me at all if Roman is gone when his current contract expires, if not before then. This regime treats players like commodities, which is not surprising since Henry made his fortune as a commodities trader. Look at how they’ve treated Mookie, Sale, Xander, Raffy, etc over the past 6 years.
0% chance they trade Tolle or Early for only two years of Paredes. I could see Harrison and a lower prospect package maybe.
Curious what Burrows would bring from Astros.
Parades for Payton Tolle and Connelly Early?
Any thoughts
Either or should be a non-starter for just Paredes. Both is insane.
Definitely not. According to Baseball Trade Values Paredes has about 3.2M in excess value, Tolle has 32.9m, and Early has 36.6M.
My thoughts are that you are delusional.
Laughable
Good Red Sox trade for Parades and leave our Alonso alone lol
I wouldn’t mind Baty for Gil or Warren but Cashman complains they have too many Leftys
@jvent
Sorry but a Parades trade wouldn’t remove the Red Sox from going after Alonso. They’re trying to add both a high-tier and a mid-tier infield free agent bat and Paredes would be the mid-tier.
Don’t want to trade Burrows but if it gives what could be a quality bat in some fashion would probably be better for the team.
All Star for a back of rotation starter?
Are you joking?
you are joking right? who said anything about all star?
Parades is a 2 times all Star, he was an all star this year. I saw someone say Burrows for Parades.
1 on 1 swap
i said nothing about parades. I just mean someone who is at least close to a non-negative bat.
No worries so many comments at times to keep things in line 🙂
Parades is a solid bat that would be an asset in almost any lineup.
If the red Sox give up early or Tolle for parades laugh your azzes off😂
I think the Cubs should trade for Paredes, just for the humor aspect.
Paredes has a swing made for Houston . Playing in Boston would turn homers into doubles and long singles.
I know we’re here to win, but if Breslow trades Tolle & Early he needs to find a new job. I can see MAYBE trading 1 of the 2. If so it BETTER be for equal quality. These guys have YEARS of control and could be the backbone of a future rotation. I just hope he is very careful with these guys.
Personally I’m not that enamored with Paredes. I realize it’s probably a back-up plan & that’s OK.
I don’t see how a Burrows-Paredes trade gets done, both clubs likely have too high of a value set on their player to make this swap. While the Astros might like to clear payroll by trading Paredes, Burrows wouldn’t cost them much of anything salary-wise (which is probably why the Astros are shopping in this segment). With the Pirates’ holes being plenty, it seems more likely that the Astros would dangle an outfielder or an upper-level prospect. Problem is, the Astros’ prospects aren’t anything special and neither are the outfielders they would offer.
Gimme Duran and a pitcher…you got Paredes.
That’s a hard pass.