December 9th: The White Sox officially announced the Kay signing today.
December 3rd: The White Sox and left-hander Anthony Kay are reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $12MM contract. The former first-round pick and top prospect, who’s represented by CAA, will be paid $5MM in each of the next two seasons and has a $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2028 season. He can earn another $1.5MM via incentives. Kay has spent the past two seasons pitching well for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
It’s a familiar page in general manager Chris Getz’s playbook: sign a former first-rounder to a two-year deal on the heels of a strong run pitching in one of the top leagues in Asia.
That strategy worked out reasonably well when Chicago signed Erick Fedde for two years and $15MM in the 2023-24 offseason following a terrific season in the Korea Baseball Organization; Fedde was traded to the Cardinals in a three-team swap in July 2024, netting the White Sox Miguel Vargas and minor league infielders Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez. Vargas was a league-average bat for the South Siders in 2025 and is controlled another four seasons. Albertus and Perez rank within the top 25 prospects in the Sox’ system.
The Sox will hope for similar results in their similarly priced investment into Kay. The 30-year-old southpaw (31 in March) has pitched 291 2/3 innings since heading to Japan. In that time, he’s logged a 2.53 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 54.5% ground-ball rate in 48 starts out of the BayStars’ rotation.
Kay has changed his pitch repertoire since moving to NPB. He sat 94.1 mph with a four-seamer, 87.9 mph with a cutter and 86.2 mph with a slider during his limited big league work from 2019-23. He’s added about three miles per hour to that cutter and also begun throwing a sinker that he didn’t have during his last run in North America, which he credits with generating more soft contact. He’s still throwing a sweeper and occasional changeup, and the lefty has also dabbled with a curveball. (He spoke about those changes and more in an October chat with Fansided’s Robert Murray.)
From 2019-23, Kay pitched 85 1/3 innings between the Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets. It was the Mets who originally selected him 31st overall back in 2016, though they were actually the third team for whom he pitched in the majors. New York traded Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Blue Jays in exchange for Marcus Stroman back in 2019, and Kay made his MLB debut not long after the swap.
Things never clicked for Kay in the majors. He’s been tagged for a 5.59 ERA with a solid 22.4% strikeout rate but an ugly 12% walk rate. Opponents averaged 1.27 homers per nine innings against him. He didn’t fare much better in terms of run prevention in parts of four Triple-A seasons, logging a 5.40 earned run average in 148 1/3 innings pitched.
As we saw with Fedde and with yesterday’s three-year, $30MM deal between the Blue Jays and Cody Ponce, what Kay did in his prior MLB work holds virtually no bearing on his newfound payday. He’s a different pitcher now than he was at any point in 2019-23, and the White Sox are paying him based on the their belief that the changes he’s implemented while pitching in Yokohama will beget better results back in Major League Baseball.
There’s inherent risk, but at this price point, it’s also hard to fault a White Sox club that’s still in the midst of a rebuilding effort. Kay will either pitch well, at which point he’d emerge as a nice trade chip, or he’ll continue to struggle and the Sox will be out a relatively modest $5MM per season. The overall scope of this commitment is less than the $15MM paydays we saw for aging veterans in their late 30s/early 40s last year (e.g. Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb). It’s a life-changing deal for Kay but a small-scale gamble for the team.
Kay steps into a rotation mix that has plenty of options but is lacking when it comes to established contributors. Right-handers Shane Smith, Sean Burke and Davis Martin all pitched between 134 and 146 innings with ERAs between 3.81 (Smith) and 4.22 (Burke). None of the three has more than one full season of big league success. Smith was a Rule 5 pick at last year’s Winter Meetings and a rookie in 2025.
Those four are now favored to open the year in manager Will Venable’s rotation. Jonathan Cannon is tentatively penciled into the fifth spot for the time being, but he struggled greatly in 2025 and has minor league options remaining. Prospects Ky Bush and Drew Thorpe could be midseason options as they work their way back from Tommy John surgery performed last spring. Lefties Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith rank among the game’s top pitching prospects and could be ready at some point next summer as well.
There’s still room for the Sox to add some veteran innings. Getz has previously voiced a reluctance to commit to free agents beyond the 2026 season — though he did so with Kay, albeit in moderate fashion. There ought to be plenty of veteran arms looking at one-year deals, whether that’s a back-of-the-rotation innings eater (e.g. Michael Lorenzen, Patrick Corbin) or an upside play coming off an injury or poor performance (e.g. Nestor Cortes, Walker Buehler, Dustin May). The White Sox’ payroll currently projects at just $68MM, per RosterResource, so there’s room for Getz & Co. to bring in several additions to fill out the rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield.
Murray first reported that the two parties had agreed to a two-year, $12MM deal. The Athletic’s Will Sammon added details about the specific breakdown and incentives.
Let’s gooooo, James Regan guessed right
*Fegan, but yes he is awesome and should still be working at the Athletic if they had any sense.
Another pitcher off the market! This is a great move for the White Sox. Don’t think they’ll regret it.
We’re all in for mediocrity!
This Anthony Kay wishes he was mediocre.
Give the Pale Hose credit. They traveled to Japan and found the local scrap heap. Another reason they’ve lost 100+ games 3 years in a row.
I also like this deal more than the Ponce deal.
That is ridiculous
Agreed. Fewer years, less AAV and great numbers in a better league (NPB is better than Korean League).
It’s overpay season…
It’s the realities of today’s market and the cost of doing business. The terms “overpay” or “underpay” are irrelevant.
@BLEACHER what a pointless comment. Stay off chat GPT.
Korea is AA talent while Japan is AAA level of talent. Compared to Ponce 10 mil who had a bad year in 24 and is 2 years older, it’s a good contract
Congrats to the Kay family.
Happy holidays!!
Going to Asia for a couple of years is now a viable career path.
It worked for my grandfather over a hundred years ago.
It worked for my uncle in WWII.
How old are you?
65. How old are you?
I had the White Sox signing Cody Ponce in the free agent contest because of their success with Fedde. I was wrong, but I had the right idea clearly.
Cubs already tried to ” Fix” Kay with no success and they have a much better track record at doing that than the White Sox. So good luck.
The Cubs have a better track record with pitchers? Not in this reality.
They do? lol
WSox have struggled developing BP guys specifically of late, but in general they’re much better working with starters than the Cubs. Hitters are the opposite.
Anyhow, looks like he has switched from a cliche terrible no command lefty reliever (thrower) in MLB to a reinvented Starter not obsessed with K rate. If he can be 4th/5th starter quality-that works.
Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer and Tanner Banks we’re all BP guys developed by the White Sox but mainly SP they do a good job at.
@CWSOverhaul, Heck, 4th or 5th starter on the Sox might slot in right behind Smith at #2.
No doubt until proven otherwise with Bannister and the new pitching coach. Like the kid Gonzalez as 4th piece of Crochet trade-has some “it” for high leverage BP with command improvement. Taylor and Hagen Smith have a wide floor/ceiling range-but the talent is clear.
The Cubs just last year picked up under achievers like Thielbar, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz and Matt Boyd and turned them into quality Major Leaguer’s again so their record just for last year is better than the White Sox could dream of. Case Closed.
It’s your lie-tell it any way you want. Those vets have all recently been good and 1yr hot/cold BP arms are constant around baseball. WSox have wealthy arms elsewhere b/c they can’t hit……Crochet, Cease, Rodon, Sale, Quintana, Giolito, etc. The Cubs abandoned arms under Theo and are just starting to recover P development.
You’re both right. The Cubs are good at squeezing a good season out of fading vets; the Sox are good at developing young pitchers. Those are 2 different things.
The NPB BayStars “fixed” Kay.
That was back in 2023 and before Anthony Kay headed to Japan.
I also have questions regarding your statement insinuating that the Cubs have a “better track record” of fixing pitchers than the White Sox, historically or in the present. As a 70-year old life long fan of both teams, I’d lean more toward the southside including with current organizational pitching boss Brian Bannister.
Big nope sleepy head
Low-key a solid signing.
A better gamble than doubling down on fellow southpaw veteran Martín Pérez.
Perez at 10M was expensive but Perez is a good pitcher. Injury risk has him on the low end of potential 1yr deals, he could be a steal. I thought Jose Quintana was excellent with the Brewers last year. Another good option.
Don’t know much about Kay, good ground ball rates, added a sinker, could be serviceable but I don’t like the signing with all the depth on the farm.
I’d of liked to see Tauchmann back and Robert traded this off season and Pete Alonso at 1B in a White Sox uniform.
Martín Pérez is decent veteran back of the rotation pitcher who has had one exceptional season (2022) in his 14 -year MLB career. He was fine last season for the White Sox when healthy. Unfortunately that only amounted to 11 appearances and 56 innings pitched. He turns 35 on April 4 and there’s no guarantee he’ll offer more production in 2026.
The White Sox are hoping for an Erik Fedde repeat with Anthony Kay in 2026. If Kay pitches comparably, he’ll be a solid summer trade deadline pawn which will be enhanced by his extra team control. By late July, the White Sox ought to have many more internal rotation options available to them including a TJ rehabilitated Drew Thorpe along with stud lefty prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith.
Michael Tauchman could still return with the White Sox seeking a veteran corner lefty bat this offseason. Luis Robert Jr. could still potentially be traded although my money would be on him moving by this summer’s trade deadline. The idea of signing soon to be 31-year old 1B/DH free agent Pete Alonso is a ludicrous one, for the team and the player.
I like Perez more than Kay.
I like the idea of Brock Porter in the Rule 5 draft more than Anthony Kay too.
I also like the idea of potentially trading Shane Smith and/or Sean Burke for a haul of prospects.
I like Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin more than most. Smith and Schulz are notably top 100 prospects. The Sox have a number of good pitching prospects beneath Smith and Schulz in AAA / AA, one or two of them could develop into a 4/5 type.
Signing Alonso is a great fit. Sox are ready to compete this year if you ask me and definitely ready to compete in ’27.
I’d sign Alonso for 6yrs / 150M, if it wasn’t good enough, I’d go back to him with 7 years 170M. I’d go 8 / 185M on Alonso if I had to. I’d be in his grill with a big contract.
That’s how much I like Alonso. 5 time all-star, .272/.350/.525.
Alonso is a great fit in Chicago, would have Colson and Vargas hitting behind him and Meidroth and Teel setting the table. Big numbers. Sox can win this year with Alonso.
@ No ABS: Agree. And, to put it more generally, the Sox have a good young team coming–mostly here, in fact–but they need to sign a free-agent star too, to be at its center. And they should not wait until Ishbia to do it.
Very interesting
Well with that ERA let’s give him millions.
You know, it is possible to go somewhere, learn new things, and come back stronger. Fedde pitched pretty well for the Sox. Let’s hope Kay can do likewise.
Hah… famous for being taken 1 pick ahead of AS catcher Will Smith. Doh!
Welcome to the southside, Anthony! Now let’s sign Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn to get you some runs support!
Pls no Luis Arraez
Yesss sir lowest k rate and batting crown
But terrible defense and no power. His OPS+ last year was 99. 115 for career. That’s better than average, but ideally, you want it even higher out of your 1B. I’d rather they get O”Hearn to play 1B. I’m guessing you have him in RF, which is fine as a stopgap until Braden comes up, hopefully mid-year, but O”Hearn works better at 1B than RF, also better with the bat last year.
Even more important than his pitch mix IMO is his greatly reduced walk rate. I would credit that with his success even more than the increased velo on the cutter or the addition of a sinker. All are important of course, but if a hitter knows a guy is wild, he will wait him out until he falls into a favorable pitch count and then tee off.
It is easier to throw strikes to players in KBO than MLB.
I wonder if Kay got a trade kicker.
I like this deal. Might be another Fedde deal that worked out great for Getz.
Great? The acquisition was great, but the trade was awful. Fedde was in the middle of a 5.6 WAR season and under team control at $7.5 million for the following season. That’s a huge amount of value. They traded him and Kopech (who promptly went to the back end of the Dodgers bullpen, saving six games down the stretch in their pennant run) for M. Vargas and two minnor leaguers who aren’t in the Sox’ top 10 prospects. Vargas was league average last season, exactly 100 OPS+. The trade was highly criticized at the time, and even now, knowing that Fedde collapsed and Kopech barely played in 2025 , it still looks like a bad deal.
Sounds about White Sox
More specifically, sounds about Reinsdorf. It’s actually kind of difficult to judge Getz as a GM fully because he hasn’t yet been given a real MLB budget. Jerry’s been cutting payroll over and over. Getz says they have money to be aggressive in some spots, but I’d be ecstatic if the Sox even got O’Hearn. I think Josh Bell or Santana are more reasonable goals at 1B. When O’Hearn would represent a best-case scenario, it’s time to blame the owner.
They are also reportedly interested in Rhys Hoskins too
Why put an over the hill Bell or Santana on a young team?
Precisely because they’re a young team. They need clubhouse leadership and that can’t all come from coaches, especially coaches who never made it to the bigs or had short careers.
Sometimes, you need a friend to kick your butt more than you need a boss to do it. But then there’s also mentorship. It just comes across different when it’s from a peer instead of a superior.
Me remembering Kay on the Mets recently only to realize 2+ years have already gone by.
See this is an O-Kay deal, similar to Fedde. Better than the Ponce deal for sure.
I hope Anthony Kay is not a left handed Aron Civale!
It’s a hoot when “fans” worry over contracts handed out by billionaire MLB owners. Those comments more accurately reflect one’s lack of happiness with their own life versus concern over the financial condition of a billionaire they never met.
I think there’s too much money for both the players and owners. But that’s capitalism. As long as people keep buying $12 beers, the price won’t go down.
I don’t think it’s funny. I worry for two distinct reasons: 1) as a fan of a team, I worry when the team overpays for someone, which inevitably results in the team being less successful than it could be; 2) as a fan of baseball, when contracts get into the $700 million range I worry abot how much more MLB is going to charge me to enjoy the game.
Fun times for the Southside.
WHO?
OH, KAY.
I read that last one in Little John’s voice. Yeah, yeah, yeah, ye-yeah, yeah, yeeaaahhh!
The Sox are quickly becoming the best value per dollar spent in MLB.
Lol, their outfield would like a word.
Soon to be completely revamped with Braden Montgomery in RF and a trade for a young LF. If Robert comes back and continues his second half 2025 production, his contract would be a bargain.
… but your lack of maturity has been duly noted
Benintendi is coming out of the OF for the most part, so that is definitely addition by subtraction there. Unfortunately, he’s still with the team as DH.
I don’t have anything in particular against AB, aside from his sucking since he came to Chicago, but that sucking is going to make Jerry even more conservative when doling out modest or large contracts. AB’s the largest FA signing in Sox history and they have little to show for it, so I don’t think Jerry’s likely to top it while he’s still owner.
Have you ever noticed that team’s biggest contracts are usually their worst contracts… yet the fans continue to shout, “spend more money!!!”?
Beni did record positive war as a DH and negative war has a LF. Some wild splits I realized.