Alex Bregman’s market appears more muddled after the Blue Jays signed NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Toronto had been tied to the three-time All-Star but no longer seems to have room for an infielder (barring a reunion with Bo Bichette).
The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Tigers have been the remaining most frequently speculated landing spots. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested last week that Boston has an offer on the table. In a column at ESPN this morning, Olney floated the possibility that the Red Sox might be willing to do something similar to the six-year, $171.5MM offer which the Tigers reportedly made to Bregman last winter. There’s no firm reporting about what the Red Sox have put on the table, to be clear, so the notion that the Red Sox could go long term seems mostly to be informed speculation on Olney’s part.
Boston landed Bregman on a three-year deal with opt-outs last winter. They juiced the average annual value to $40MM, albeit with significant deferrals that dropped the actual value closer to $30MM annually. Bregman is no longer attached to a qualifying offer and coming off a better season on a rate basis than he had in 2024. He’s also entering his age-32 season, so he may be more incentivized to secure the longest deal and maximum guarantee. The upside of taking short-term deals with opt-outs decreases as a player approaches his mid-30s.
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com each wrote on Tuesday that many within the industry considered Arizona and Toronto the top threats to a Boston reunion before the Jays added Okamoto. That’d naturally point to the Diamondbacks as the strongest challengers now, yet most chatter on the Bregman/Arizona tie has been connected to a potential Ketel Marte trade. With D-Backs general manager Mike Hazen implying they could soon pull Marte from the market entirely, that could have a trickle-down impact on Bregman.
Arizona could certainly fit Marte and Bregman on the roster. The latter would step in as the everyday third baseman. The bigger question is whether ownership would sign off on another nine-figure infield investment after extending Marte for $102.5MM last spring. The long-term payroll would be a bigger stumbling block than this year’s outlook. Marte agreed to defer $6MM of his $15MM salary in 2026, so trading him would only free up a fraction of the first-year salary that Bregman would command.
Meanwhile, two of last year’s finalists appear to be less involved this time around. Detroit has reportedly thus far shied away from making another long-term offer. Top shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle is on the doorstep of the majors. Bregman would be a significant upgrade over the current third base grouping of Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and potentially Javier Báez once McGonigle arrives.
Manager A.J. Hinch gave a vote of confidence to McKinstry in response to speculation about a third base acquisition. “I get asked about third base all the time. I’m like, ’Our guy made the All-Star team,'” Detroit’s skipper told Audacy’s 97.1 The Ticket (h/t to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press).
McKinstry was indeed an All-Star behind an excellent first half, but he has been a career utility player and hit .213/.278/.378 after the Break. It’s hard to believe he’s truly standing in the way of the Tigers signing Bregman — though it’s understandable that Hinch would publicly defend his player. Detroit’s $165MM payroll projection is already more than $20MM above where they opened the 2025 season, which seems a bigger obstacle to a significant free agent move.
The Cubs proposed a four-year, $115MM deal last winter. They’ve been positioned on the periphery of the market this time around. Matt Shaw had an encouraging second half of his rookie season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins spoke at the Winter Meetings about their confidence in the 24-year-old infielder. It doesn’t appear that much has changed in the past month on that end. Feinsand reports that while the Cubs continue to have some level of interest in Bregman, they’re not expected to make the highest offer.
He will be a Ham Fighter.
Ham right he will.
Green eggs with that?
Plop the ham thusly, puhleaz!!
Do you think he’ll do some pork chops?
It seems like Toronto might have been the only competition for the Red Sox to sign Bregman, with the Jays out of the picture his agent is trying very hard to make it look like there is a bigger market for him then there is
The Diamondbacks are possibly in the market for Bregman as well. He has small kids and lives in AZ. Tax situation is better in AZ. Really depends on his priorities and the offers presented.
That seems to hang contingent on the Diamondbacks trading Ketel Marte, which seems less likely with each passing day
Not necessarily. Marte is being paid $15m this season, and $12m in 2027. Not a huge amount all things considered.
What does his salary have to do with this? Any team in the league would happily pay that for Marte
Yes but the capital cost the Snakes are seeking makes a deal IMO unlikely.
Another – Breggy’s dad is also running for New Mexico Governor!
FPG- Alex has to go to the D’backs:
– couldn’t hurt his dad’s chances, to have the name on regional tv everyday
– it would be a savings of 6.5% on state income tax leaving Mass.
– better weather
– close to home
Please Alex, go to Arizona LOL
IIRC, The tax savings is far more complicated than that since players pay the income tax of where the game is played for each contest, but then get credits for taxes owed for the taxes collected in another state.
You’d need to add up every states tax regulation where mlb teams play. Then figure out which jurisdictions have higher millionaires taxes added on, because a high earning player in the AL east certainly earns enough playing 7 or 8 games against the NYY to breach the million threshold. But in AZ you certainly more than get hammered jumping to 21-24 games in California !! Its so complicated, I dont see agents pitching the ‘tax savings’ of signing with respective clubs.
Also IIRC, deferred money, if paid far enough into the future, is considered speculative by tax codes meaning where you pay income tax on it is based on where you are when finally you collect the check, rather than at time of perfomamce in the game.
GASox- understood, but its still 81 games, so there is savings.
When you are talking about contracts of $100m or more, there is no doubt in my mind that Boras has the numbers on those savings. It would be a great misservice to his clients if he didnt.
For example (obviously using simple numbers, and not actual tax accounting), on $35m per season, 81 home dates in Mass amounts to about $1..5m per season. The same salary in Arizona on 2.5% tax is around $450k. I believe Boras would know the million dollar difference.
Guys, i’m just talking through a point, please accountants, dont hammer me on not knowing actual tax accounting practices.
Sad sox – not that simple, because your other games change as well. Remember, instead of playing in Baltimore, Florida, and Toronto, you now play in SF, LA, and SD. Thats much more expensive than even MA when you incorporate all those cities millionaire tax structures. Then you get into local taxes as so many big cities will have a local income tax…
Im certain you could easily build a computer program where you input for every team what the weighted taxes are for every location you play now that theres a balanced schedule, and maybe they do that.
But it doesnt work out to a simple you pay half less, because while you pay less on 81 games, you pay more, in some cases much more, on many others.
I get the point you try to make, but the savings aren’t as drastic necessarily as the roughly 1m in your scenario.
There *are* certain ckub that id believe would be very tax friendly due to divisional makeup and home tax rate, but, because of the heavy CA influence, im doubtful AZ is one of them
ok……..
Sad sox – FWIW, I used to make your *exact* same argument a couple seasons ago.
One thing about mlbtr, we seem to have an outsized number of highly educated people in various professions compared to the number of commenter- lawyers, doctors, accountants, etc etc etc.
They do in a friendly nature spread that knowledge, I learn more here on these boards than just baseball stuff. Alot of what I state now regarding players and taxes is attributed to those guys friendily educating me about things I hadn’t seen or heard before. Such as that rule on speculative income for tax purposes on deferments. I always wondered how they decided how many years into the future the deferred payment would start, and, turns out theres that minimum threshold of years where a player can retire overseas or to a tax free state before collecting and keep the money free of state and local taxes!
GaSox – I am right there with you, the posts on our team’s rumors are usually from very informed, highly educated professionals. I enjoy reading your posts, and i think we are often in agreement. I also feel like we are allowed to disagree and still be civil to each other (which you always are). And, i can admit when i am wrong, or underinformed.
I differ from you in one aspect of this point, and that is, both agent and player are absolutely aware of the difference. I dont know about you, but i look at my pay stubs and like to understand where even the small amounts go. Even wealthy players must be curious as to whether they keep or lose a couple hundred grand, no?
Moreover, my post about Bregman’s dad was meant to be humorous. I guess i’m just not as funny as i thought.
Go Sox!
Sad – You’re right, anybody who plays for the Marlins/Rays/Rangers/Astros and eventually Athletics will automatically have zero state income tax for half a season.
GaSox – You’re right, as your team’s schedule changes so does your income tax. AL West is the best if you play for the Rangers or Astros, you don’t pay on 87 or 88 regular season games.
GaSox – I learned that with Ohtani’s contract!
The reason it’s deferred 10 years, after 10 years like you said if you collect in another state it’s subject to that state’s tax laws …. not the laws where the income was earned.
And some people think the Dodgers had to force the deferrals on Ohtani so the team could save money …. HAHAHA!!!
sad – It still cracks me up when people believe Ohtani had no clue of the millions that were disappearing from his bank account!
I don’t see it happening. Also, I never buy the argument that some player will choose the team that they want to play for based solely on the income tax situation.
roob – You’d be surprised how greedy some players are, they can be totally fixated on net income.
ARod signing with the Rangers is one example, his savings was enormous compared to NYC etc.
The tax issue is secondary. He and his wife had twins in April, so he might want to spend more family time in AZ.
roob – I don’t think anyone was saying that. Certainly its a complicated set of factors that go into the decision making.
My original post was a joke…..i’m gonna stop doing that 🙂
Sad,
Just add the
/Jk just kidding
Or
/s sarcasm
And keep posting what you do.
Bregman wants to go to Arizona but they’ve told him they have to trade Marte first. That is something they are trying desperately to do. However, they refuse to take the best offer if it doesn’t meet a high standard. Their recent call for best offers on the table is directly related to the mutual interest in Bregman.
coop – With Boras, he will ALWAYS do whatever he can to ensure his clients will be getting more than what they were making, or more than what they were offered in the past, whether it’s AAV or total contract NPV.
Because Breggy was making $31.7M last year, and because he rejected a $171.5M offer from the Tigers last year, he will be determined to get at least a little bit more now.
If Breggy accepts less than what he would have been making on last year’s contract offer from the Tigers, that would be a huge black mark on Scott’s record. Boras won’t allow it.
Fever but it in the end is Bergman’s call. The Sox overpaid because it was basically a one year deal. If you subtract the $31.7m, he needs one year less and $140.2m to match. I don’t see him getting more from Boston.
FPG- you’re right, thats probably what Olney was alluding to in his “informed” opinion. A sixth year would be a bone for the team to lower the AAV
dewey – I think Breggy has the same approach as JDM, they both let Boras run the show. I think Breggy is being majorly influenced by Boras to hold out.
Agree with you on the 1-year overpay in terms of AAV, but the Sox looked pretty good making only a $31.7M investment while other teams were willing to make a $150M-$171.5M investment.
FPG- the one year high aav was a prudent investment, as long as they dont bow to the pressure now and sign him long term to a similar contract as he was offered last year. Then its a $31m overpay
Sad – Oh I totally agree, it was a good decision.
Uh, doesn’t that require someone willing to pay it?
You don’t hire Boras to represent you if he’s not in charge of the process.
Another – Exactly! Players who hire Boras tend to do so because they want the most money possible. That’s why they put up with the delays as he’s usually got the most clients.
His job is to get them the most money while understanding they start the process with a list of what the players wants.
More often than not he completes his job effectively.
Another – Let’s say Bregman really wants to play for Arizona or Boston, but the Rockies offer $50M more than those other teams’ best offer.
You don’t think Boras would pressure him to take the offer from the Rockies so he could earn the extra $2.5M commission?
Of course he would try. But he can’t sign the contract. Plus, just having the offer made is a win for Boras. The offer would leak for the sake of all parties.
That his client chose another team makes him look player friendly in addition to extremely effective. Many players would look at that situation and say I want that agent because I would have taken the money. Others would see he ultimately does what his clients want. Win win really.
Fever. It depends on what the Sox do moving forward. They still need a righty bopper and there remains a good chance that at least one of Casas,Meyer, Yoshida and Story get injured or don’t have a good 26. The team looks good on paper but come August, they could be fighting for first or last as currently constructed.
dewey – Without question one of those four players will probably have a down or injury-plagued year.
And yes, anything is possible with the standings. I would be shocked if they finish last, but as of right now 4th is possible. I can’t imagine the Jays don’t win the division, unless they suffer massive injuries.
Just like last season, he and Boras are using the Cubs as a bargaining chip. There’s no way he’s going there. He wants no part of that left field in Wrigley where his HR totals would be greatly diminished and besides, Ricketts will never pony up the $$.
Boras has Boston bidding against themselves… again.
These teams should honestly give him a deadline, and if they don’t accept the team’s terms, just move on to a different player. Eventually players will get tired of waiting, knowing teams will just move on. I’ll never understand why, save for a very few number of players, teams allow Boras to hold them hostage like this.
He could be this off-seasons Bellinger, who waits too long and has to take what’s offered.
One can only hope.
@Yanks
The tail doesn’t wag the dog. Agents do what the player wants then to do.
It works both ways, no doubt. However, it is predominantly Boras clients that stall the market and attempt to set records every offseason.
My position wasn’t to assign blame, it was to point out that teams should take control back by moving on from a player who intentionally stalls out the market in a blinking contest.
@ knicks fan
Players hire an agent because they trust their advice. Why hire Boras over a different agency if your not going to take his advice?
I doubt Boras advised him to opt out of $40M/year.
IF he did not think he could.get a good contract 2 years from now = then clearly = he is trying to get more than he thinks he will.be worth. He intends on cheating the payer.
Can’t wait 2 years?
You gonna stink by then? Is that your plan?
I understand, get it now, lock it in, now.
After all, he may get injured…..
Yankee Clipper
You’re a great guy, but, respectfully, that’s silly.
If you set a deadline of say January 31st from Bergman to get five years at $155 million and on February 1st he grovels asking for one year at $20 million, you will take it every time. Rigid deadlines don’t work and smack of owner collusion.
What is fair to say? Tell all players that your interests and offers gradually do down the closer it gets to both the roster reporting deadline and Opening Day and the more settled the roster already is. No hard and fast deadline, but just a general understanding that we see less value unless everyone is ready when players first report and we have time to make roster adjustments before the roster report date as well.
Cheers, and Happy New Year, Clip!
Yeah, I agree with that, MLB Top100. Perhaps a hard deadline wouldn’t work in all (or even many) cases. To put it a different way: I would not allow stalling the market to ignite a bidding war for these guys currently available (I had the Bellinger negotiations specifically in mind here)
Also, I certainly wouldn’t avoid making other big moves in hopes I could get one specific player (with some obvious exceptions here, like Judge, Ohtani, Yamamoto, etc).
All in all, I agree with what you wrote, which is in line with what I meant to convey.
Happy New Year to you as well, and I appreciate you saying that. Here’s to hoping it’s a great year for us all.
I’ve been involved in personal injury negotiations for 40 years. Each case is different and it sometimes depends on who you are negotiating with. Mediation has overtaken direct negotiations in larger cases but in personal injury matters, the mediator actually works and seeks common ground for a compromise rather than having to choose between the offer and demand (current MLB arbitration system). Arbitrations other than contractual like in underinsured motorist auto cases are less common so perhaps the arbitrator at the MLb hearing does try to get them to negotiate before having to choose. Here though, the system heavily favors the player and I’m thinking the owners will look for change in the system after this season. To get it though, they will have to open up their books as that’s why a different system works in the other leagues. Finally, as for Bregman, if there was such a high offer, it would have been firmly leaked and a deal would have already been done. This remains nothing about nothing.
dewey – You don’t think the Buster amount is a firm leak? He’s been fairly credible in terms of reporting what he’s heard, I’d say it’s a firm leak Now whether the source of the leak is intentionally trying to be deceptive is another story.
It doesn’t surprise me that Breggy hasn’t made a decision yet. I’ve been saying for a year he’s all about the money, it’s just in his nature to be driven by getting as much as he can. Look at what happened last year, he went right up to ST before deciding. And of course Boras had ALL his top clients unsigned going into mid-January 2024, apparently he didn’t learn from that mistake. Which Boras top free agents have already signed? (not counting the Japanese players who had strict deadlines).
I do think Breggy could be torn between Boston and Arizona. Playing year-round near home is a huge plus for a player, especially one like him who has a young family.
I really think Arizona is holding things up more than anything, the Marte trade or not.
I don’t think that’s a firm leak. I think Busters just sensationalized what’s out there in the rumor mill of 5/150 to 5/160 range, which is going to most likely be the deal. I don’t think Bostons bidding against themselves…they’ve been pretty sand in the line on this one..
MLB- In Bregman’s case, I am getting to the point where I feel the same way as Yankee Clipper. Boras is a master of getting teams to bid themselves up and overpay, granted it can fail when they wait too long.
I am a bit concerned that is what is happening with Bregman. Based on some of the articles it sounds like the Sox have made their final offer. I would prefer that they give a deadline and move on to plan B or C if Bregman/Boras doesn’t accept it. I don’t want to see there back up plans sign elsewhere which gives Boras more leverage.
I like Bregman, but some of their other options could end up being even better or cheaper (Bichette and Suarez or some of the rumored trades).
Uncle – Great post, I totally agree.
I am sure the Red Sox have a feel as to when they have to switch to Plan B or Plan C, and will act accordingly.
How’s that for being positive to start the New Year ;O)
But setting a deadline might not be in the team’s interest. Your statement assumes that Boras is holding teams hostage and that is in the player’s interest. But here, perhaps Boston sees that waiting it out favors them. A huge suitor, Toronto, just dropped out. If Boston waits long enough, they may get Bregman at a drastically reduced price. So who is holding who hostage?
doug – You could be right, remember the Sox held out last year and it worked …. they got him for only $32M.
It does seem like the market isn’t there for him, which would explain Boras reaching out to Seattle. Compared to last year, Toronto is out and Houston is out. The Cubs are very similar to the Sox in not liking to spend, and Arizona has budget constraints.
FPG
Would you rather have Marte or Bregman? It’s been awhile since I’ve been on here so , give me your plusses and minuses for each.
FPG.
I forgot to include Bo Bichette in the mix ..
cdc – hi!
Bregman – Strong glove, team leader, decent bat
But injury prone, asking for $$$, finished the season poorly
Bo – Young, great hitter
But injury prone, awful SS and unproven at other positions
Marte – Great hitter, multiple positions, good contract
But would require trading a lot, potential personality issues
Impossible to rate order of preference without knowing the contract for Breggy or Bo, or what it would take to get Marte.
Nappy new year fever. Not sure if id told you that or not. My brain is slipping.
But if Im Breslow, I really have to put Marte to the bottom. Remember the Manny being Manny days, when it was mostly antics in the ballpark such as relieving himself inside the monster or high fiving a fan before throwing a live ball back into the infield? That was one thing. Until the antics turned toxic with the staff treatment issues and clubhouse disorder.
Marte’s unilateral unannounced mid-season vacation choosing to miss active games, thats toxic end of Manny being Manny behavior. And this particular Red Sox roster has too many young players to have that kind of influence in the clubhouse. Remember Devers insubordination and defiance from the red sox spin/perspective and what they felt they had to do? This is inviting a worse ego and a more selfish personality than devers ever was into your clubhouse.
Who knows, maybe Henry’s ‘love of a cheap contract’ wins out and we see more inconsistency from the top with an about face on issues like that.
GaSox – Happy New Year to you as well !! This is the first post I’ve seen from you in a while, hope you’re doing okay.
I honestly don’t know much about Marte or that situation, so I really don’t have an opinion on him. But I agree if he’s got issues it doesn’t make sense to acquire him.
The thing is, lots of star players have had issues. It’s difficult to avoid all of them.
Do you remember Pedro Martinez, he showed up just a few minutes before a game he was supposed to start and he didn’t notify the manager. Even though he actually made it to the bullpen in time to start the game, Jimy Williams took his start away and gave it to Bryce Florie. It led to a very heated argument between Jimy and Pedro in the dugout.
Then to embarrass Pedro even more, Jimy brought him in to pitch the last 4 innings despite the game being a blowout.
Of the three players I analyzed (Bo, Breg, Marte) none of them are ideal. There are very, very few guys in MLB who don’t have concerns attached to them.
Safest way to go I think is Suarez on a 2 or 3 year deal around $50-$75M. He’s not the best player of the bunch, but he won’t cost talent and he won’t negatively impact the budget for years to come.
Fever, I’ve been caught up with those life events that dont wait, has kept me from enjoying this site this offseason as much as id have liked.
The one, and only, reason I have a preference for Bregman is if you think back to JDM. At the time, I was very against JDM, thinking it was overpaid and would cost them in contract expectations with their then young guys, leaving them unable to afford to lock in some keystones… and it did.
But, I was also wrong about JDM not being worth it because he made the other players around him better, really helping their hitting and growth.
Looking at last season, I see Bregman having had a very similar positive effect on the younger player growth, especially watching him helping with fielding drills in ST.
Thats worth something extra, even if eventually he becomes less productive at the end. I think other young players will become more than they would without him, and thats a quality I dont see in Suarez or Bo or anyone else.
If it wasn’t for that piece of the puzzle – which I could be wrong about in the other direction this time – id agree with you. There’s a limit though… nothing stupid like 7yrs 210m. A sensible contract, even a high AAV with deferrals but less opt outs than last time…keep it around 5 years, maybe vesting option
GaSox – I don’t think Bo has been much of a leader because of Vlad’s and Springer’s presence, but Suarez has been an exceptional team leader. He also would be a huge presence and mentor for fellow Venezuelans Narvaez, Contreras and Abreu.
If clubhouse leadership is important to you – and I know it is – then you want Suarez on the Sox.
mlb.com/news/eugenio-suarez-has-become-unsung-hero…
Nearly seven months later, Suárez has shown that his eager and infectious personality wasn’t merely an act. He’s crushed a team-high 31 homers, has shown a remarkable defensive turnaround at third base and injected his veteran and laid-back presence into a young clubhouse that has made him such a valuable addition.
And on Friday, Suárez was recognized for his efforts with the “Unsung Hero” Award, voted on by the Seattle chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
It’s an annual ceremony on the final weekend of the year, and more often, the Unsung Hero honor is also the under-the-radar recognition compared to the other two. But Suárez’s impact was particularly worthy of recognition.
“Lo and behold, he’s become a big-time leadership piece in our clubhouse,” Servais said.
Fever, he’s a leader, but is he a teacher? I see one box checked with the clubhouse presence, but I have to admit, I havent watched or followed Suarez to see him in warm-up or drills situations and going over hitting on i-pads with other players or helping with their glovework and such.
Coaches are one thing, but peer-to-peer learning beyond the coaches seems to be a hallmark of some of the great squads that do special things.
When I see the players teaching the other players and working with them after they struggle, that’s a special intangible worth a bit extra to me.
GaSox – As a manager/coach, doesn’t it make you a little concerned if a player is giving advice to young guys that doesn’t align with the team’s philosophy? Like Jim Rice getting shown up for given advice to a player last ST?
In a traditional work setting bosses tend to prefer being the teachers, rather than letting coworkers do the teaching. Yeah sometimes it’s just an ego thing.
Fever, two thoughts on that…
1) I strongly disagree with the Rice incident, *and* how it was handled. Back before free agency was a thing, and teams owned a players rights permanently, I think its fine if they dictate player methods and technique with an iron hand.
These days, I believe its up to the player to play how the player wants – as far as launch angle, or approach liking to see a first pitch, or throwing style, etc because its the *players* career, not the teams. If they dont align, the team can trade or release the player to somewhere he’s a better fit.
The only exception to that is, order to steal a base, take a pitch, bunt, walk a batter etc on a particular play within the game. But skill development, players should have a say in how they want their skillset honed. It *used* to be the coaches worked to find what worked best for a player. Now theres analytics organizational strategy BS trying to shove every guy into the same mold wasting potential and ruining some prospects.
2) in my traditional work settings, anything that helps improve total production, makes the employee better, I encourage collaboration among peers. More minds teaching, more approaches, more strategies where people can find then use what works best for them, their methods, their strengths. But, I’ve never had a fragile ego or any self important tendencies.
There’s no ‘i’ in team, but if you look around you can still find a ‘m e’. Let them find their own identities and strengths.
Fever- I assume Donovan is still an option as well. There may be some other conversations going on that we don’t know about (Gray and Oviedo seemed to come out of the blue so who knows). If Bregman is the one, I wish Boras would stop dragging this out.
The Sox need to get the other bat for the lineup and move on to figuring out any other moves they need to make. I assume they are still looking at upgrades that could be made by trading one of the outfielders and some other extra pieces they won’t have space for on the roster.
I saw something about Wilson contemplating retirement if he does not get an offer from a competitive team. He was a solid piece of the bullpen, exceeding expectations, so I assumed they would bring him back. I guess they need to wait and see if they are going to have a roster spot or they likely would have already signed him.
doug – That approach worked for the Red Sox last year because they didn’t NEED a 3B at the time. They had Raffy (I know he was bad, but he could still manage) and Mayer, and were ready to trade for Arenado at any time.
This year they NEED a 3B (or MI), so they can’t play the waiting game …. and I think Boras knows that.
Doug- Setting a deadline to accept the large contract they have offered Bregman doesn’t mean they can’t swing back around and check back in. If they leave their offer on the table indefinitely they are not going to have an opportunity to sign him cheaper in the future.
And likely the Yankees bidding against themselves for Bellinger.
I think Bellinger legit has more suitors.
Sal: At what price point would you pivot from Belli? I was thinking that my top offer would be about 6/$180. If the $400MM asking price is legitimate (or anywhere near that), I wouldn’t even entertain it, honestly.
No one is paying Bellinger that, Clip. And it wasn’t legitimate. Boras asked Bloom to actually retract that report.
I wouldn’t go above 200 million total value.
Belli has at least the Mets but hitting half of the time in Yankee Stadium is his best option.
Sal – Someone named Bloom actually believed $400M for Belli? Wow. Does he not realize the dude is already 30 and has only a .817 career OPS?
How much does he think the 29-year-old .865 OPS Tucker is asking for, $800M?
dewey – LAD will definitely be in on Belli if they can’t get Tucker.
They should try a trade for Donovan and Romero- send back Duran and Valera
@tardaddy
Duran is much better than Donovan (13.2 vs 7.6 fWAR past 3 seasons) and under team control for 3 years rather than two. Valera is a borderline top-100 prospect while Romero is a mid-reliever with one year of control remaining. Nothing about this makes sense for the Red Sox.
Aside from that, Duran doesn’t fit the Cardinals rebuild and Donovan doesn’t fit the Red Sox needs.
WC- The Sox have an extra outfielder and the potential need for a second baseman, which would be why this might make some sense for the Sox and they could use a solid reliever. I personally would expect Duran would be used toward pitching if they do trade him.
As you said, the big issue is that the Cardinals are trying to unload contracts so taking on Duran doesn’t make sense. If the Sox are going to go after Donovan it will be for prospects, unless Bloom desperately wants Duran back and shocks everyone.
@Uncle Pedro
The Red Sox could use another infielder, but the larger need has been a middle-of-the-order RH/SH bat. Donovan is neither of those things. If all other options dry up, then Donovan would begin to make some sense, but that isn’t currently the case. But the lesser team control, as well as lesser ability, make this trade especially lopsided and unreasonable from the Red Sox perspective (and it’s non-sensical from the Cardinals perspective as I’ve already mentioned).
The second issue is that despite a luck-driven low-ERA in 2025, Jojo Romero isn’t a solid reliever. He’s very close to Brennan Bernadino, who the Red Sox traded for a non-prospect in order to get down to a 40-man roster. No doubt the Red Sox could use a left-handed relief pitcher, but overpaying for a 6th-inning type reliever isn’t the way to go. Especially for one that’s relatively expensive (4.4m expected arb cost) and has only 1 year of team control remaining.
WC- Donovan is far from my top choice and as we both said Duran doesn’t match up with the Cardinals. We need a bat that is going to be a difference maker and Duran’s offense is likely better than Donovan as you pointed out. Most of the options they are looking at have some downside. As a straight offensive force Schwarber would have been the best option but he was not leaving the Phillies and at this point should be strictly a DH, which we already have assuming Yoshida is not moved.
I was not aware that Romero’s ERA was not an indication of a quality arm, I assumed he was going to provide high end relief. Have not watched him so just going my comments I have seen by multiple posters on this site.
@Pedro
Most commentors on this site use the links provided to form their opinion. As the links go to Bref, they look at bWAR and then ERA and make a determination – the problem with that is that bWAR is simply ‘runs against’ adjusted – so the number they think reinforces the ERA’s quality is just a repeat of the same number in a different form. That’s a long-winded way of saying that most MLBTR readers only know the ERA/RA of the pitcher and not much else.
Jojo has 1.6 fWAR in 192.2 innings. fWAR isn’t perfect either, but the peripherals back that up. So he’s ~0.5 WAR reliever. Probably a slight upgrade for the Red Sox bullpen atm, but nothing valuable which can’t be found elsewhere (also his velocity has been trending downward) for a 1 year deal.
Schwarber would have been awesome if they had re-signed him originally, but I don’t like his fit anymore. Great bat, but he’s a lefty pure DH who may have had reverse splits last season, but has fairly normal splits for his career. If the Red Sox had signed him, they would have no place for Yoshida or one of Abreu/Duran to play. Displacing those guy for an aging expensive player while reducing roster flexibility is not the way IMO.
WC- Who do you see as the best player to fit their need for improved offense? I don’t know that there is a perfect fit and agree that Schwarber would have been just a bat without the flexibility to be used in positions of need and would have forced them to unload Yoshida if they could.
@Pedro
Bregman is still the best fit with Bichette the next best. Marte would also be nice, but seems the Dbacks are now saying he’s off the market. The Red Sox have followed my off-season wishlist to a T at this point (aside from Oviedo; didn’t see that coming) so I’m optimistic they secure one of those two.
Last year the Red Sox started the season with Casas, who had bad babip luck followed by a brutal early injury, and Campbell, who was the worst defender in baseball and cratered offensively, at 1st & 2nd. Replacing those two with Contreras and Mayer should provide a sizable upgrade while Anthony replaces Devers. So the offense & defense should both be improved as long as they retain Bregman.
The rotation has been improved as well (Gray, Oviedo, Sandoval & Crawford) and they’re much deeper in almost all areas (maybe not bullpen) than they were in 2025. On paper they should be inline for an extra 5-10 wins (assuming they keep Bregman).
Red Sox…..50 million a year, 3 years with opt out annually
Let’s go!
Plus a 100k bonus per game when someone sings sweet Caroline off key!
#RomanAnthony:AnthonyVolpe
Heck no
Cubs? Naw…
I don’t understand the situation with Ketel Marte… why is AZ listening to offers for him?
Because every few seasons some team trades the world for a player. Not likely to happen, but you never know. Doesn’t hurt to listen.
But they should make a decision soon and make it known. For the good of the clubhouse and relationship with the player moving forward.
That’s only half of it.
The Dbacks have been instructed to cut salary from their 2025 level, yet they still appear to want to compete despite a couple of major injuries. If the can gain assets and shift money, perhaps it could help in the short term.
In the long term, this may be their last chance to trade Marte as he receives 10-5 rights right after the season starts.
OK, it must be all about 10-5 rights. He’s got a very team friendly contract so it doesn’t seem like a money issue.
There was that little issue they had in the clubhouse with him as well where he just decides to take random vacations during the season and miss games without telling the club first….
Dude, that is just a blatantly false accusation. First, there was never an instance where he didn’t tell the club first. Second, the main concern came from a time when he missed three games after the all star break due to his home getting robbed. That’s not a vacation. Some players were annoyed because at the same time as that period, the team was trying to determine if they had a chance or should trade talent and ended up trading away talent so a couple players were disgruntled that he wasn’t playing to help avoid that. But seriously, tell me if your home gets robbed how fast do you want to go back to the office instead of taking care of things first?
His home in Arizona got robbed, but he took the vacation in the Dominican Republic.
Suit is correct, its well documented he went to the Dominican with his family, and, contemporaneous reporting is all over the place saying he didnt tell the team he did it.
And the roppery was not off in the carribbean, so, no ‘business’ to take care of related to the robbery there!
Didn’t he have a breakdown on the field because a fan said something about his mom?
Cubs need to replace Tucker’s offense somehow and I don’t like hoping that Shaw, or the rookies will do that
Anthony’s phrase “… informed speculation on Olney’s part.” Is brilliance.
Informed.by what, exactly?
Decades of experience talking with the people in baseball who make the decisions.
Informed = educated
Speculation = guess
Here is exactly what Olney said in the ESPN article:
“The Boston Red Sox want Bregman and have signaled a willingness to pay him big money – perhaps something in the range of what the Tigers offered him last spring, a six-year, $171.5 million deal.”
So, Olney did not hear an actual offer. He is just speculating.
I think it would be a mistake for the Red Sox to give Bregman the long contract he desires. Let him move on to the Diamondbacks. That would be a perfect landing spot for him. The American League could use a break from that dude.
Exactly
Masa for Marte, then the Sox bail on Bregman and Dbacks get him cheap. Everyone wins (except Bregman)
Now why do you think Masa for Marte is any kind of viable offer??
My advice to you is this
Keep your cap on your pen
And don’t press your finger in the wrong socket
I can’t for the life of me understand why Bregman draws this attention or even close to dollars and years. Good player, not great. 32 and not getting younger.
This deal has regret all over it the day it’s signed.
3/75 should be max for him
Completely agree. Can’t stay healthy now at 32 so imagine the next 5 years. As a Cubs fan I’m impatiently waiting for them to make a big move but I sure don’t want it to be for him.
cencal
“Good” and “great” are pretty nebulous terms.
He’s averaged 4.4 fWAR over the last 4 seasons.
FanGraphs projects him for 4 WAR this season.
That’s a pretty productive player
I think you can say this for most contracts long-term contracts given to players 30+ years old.
Did Hinch really play the McKinstry is an all star card? People can rationalize anything.
Technically he is right but McKinistry’s metrics at 3B were not as good as at SS and he is a good backup at thecend of the day. 3B is likely Keith’s to lose. I think Keith will outhit Bregman this year.
I’ll use my “informed speculation” to say that after last years bidding, Detroit isn’t in the negotiations at all. Illitch likely took the decline on his offer as a slap in the face. Not doing that again.
@stymeedone. My uninformed wild guess speculates that you could be right.
Colt Keith is resembling Nick Castellanos in many regards. Above average hitter and not a very good fit defensively anywhere. I don’t believe him to be an average fielding 3B. I think he will be concerted to the OF at some point.
Brassroo…they did mention he could end up in LF when he was drafted. Everything i read said he did okay at 3B. Bregman outclasses him on defebse for sure. As long as he hits I don’t care where he plays!
I do too. Any slight advantage Bregman may have is not worth the millions he will cost IMO.
I was responding to Motor City Beach Bum
Bregman is a good player, but not great. His last great season was 2019. Since then he has been good, but so has a number of other third baseman.
As usual, Boras is trying to inflate his value. You would think teams would have learned this tactic, but instead they act like drunken sailors on shore leave when he’s involved
There are only three 3B that have been better (Fangraphs WAR) than Bregman since 2020.
So that means you pay him top dollar for the next 5?
Disaster contract waiting to happen. Boston didn;’t get their money worth last year. Neither will the next team.
No, that means Bregman has been better than OP suggests he has been since 2020
They can always pass the cost/expense on to the idiot MLB fan, of whom, they have pretty much zero respect for.
See contract cutting of millions of.dollars….Who cares?
These idiots will buy, they have no choice…
It’s a monopoly.
Boras has.made.America.look stupid in.front of the whole.world….
Billions for the Yankees and Dodgers….
Zero to dreadge the waterways….
Its good.to know, the world.leaders are.focused on.the right.things.
If someone gives him 6 years guaranteed, they’re not buying decline insurance, they’re betting against it.
I wouldn’t go anywhere further than a short-term or opt-out structure of 2–3 years with a high AAV and opt-outs.
Scott Boras should just gather his stable and form his own team.
The last sentence can be used in every article about any FA and the Cubs.
I say he either signs back with Boston or ends up a Dodger. They haven’t had a big signing this offseason besides Diaz so sounds about right. 7 year deal 250 million with 200 million of it deffered. Seems like anytime a division rival is interested in someone decent,they go in a sign them instead.
Learn to spell ‘deferred’ before resorting to deferral jokes next time.
@steinbrenner Wow, didn’t know the Grammer police were out tonight. Thanks for the advice, you must be really fun at parties!
Whatever you do, don’t dangle any participles. He just sees red.
We all knew Bregman was an auto-opt-out the minute the 2025 season itself opted out.
Still, cutting himself loose seems a money mistake when adding his 2025 injury time to next year’s looming uncertainties. Unless Boston bites high again……..
Odd how Detroit has cooled on him. He was their entire offseason plan last winter. What happened? His bat plus those supposed intangibles are needed even more now than then. If they are banking on The Great McKinstry instead, that is most definitely not a legit basis. All-Star my callipygian.
There’s this kid named Tarik…. rumor has it he’s a free agent after this season, and, if Detroit has any hope of retaining him, they may prefer to throw the bregman money to partially fund an extension for him instead…
Scott Harris and Chris Illitch won’t even try to give him a reasonable offer. He’s gone and Illitch Holdings gets to save millions of dollars in 2027.
3B is Keith’s job to lose. I think he steps up this year and outfits Bregman.
Bregman opted out of 2 years, $80M. Out of spite, I’d offer him 3 years, $81M.
Give Bregman until Friday and if he doesn’t sign shift to Bichette Breslow…Boras is stalling without a hand to play.
Bichette doesn’t even have a single card. Toronto has moved on. Who else was interested? Boston is using him for leverage on Bregman, nothing more.
They should sign Bichette….. 28 year old season… versus Bregman’s 32 year old season…. it’s that simple.
Bregman should not have opted out of that deal. If he finished a 3 year/$120M deal and he’s only worth half that, he’d have only needed 4 years/$80M to clinch that mythic $200M in free agency money that most high profile guys aim for nowadays-which would be a steal in today’s market.
Probably could have coasted off 3 years/$120M into 3 years/$100M or 4 years/$110M.
Now he’s at the mercy of the market and might have to settle for only 3 years/$100M or something and potentially be out after just 4 years/$140M.
Basically there was more downside and obvious risk to opting out
It’s possible he ends up with a similar contract again, or one that gives the opt-out after season 2. He’s in the category of unquestionably good, but also unquestionably over-priced
I personally think he is a very good player, but not what I call a franchise player which his salary demands seem to imply. That being said, I think the Sox need to stop playing the Boros game and look elsewhere for help at third. The procrastination seems to be on the ridiculous side again this year. Could also use a #2 starter if we can swing it!
BadCo….. they all ready have a “Shooting Star” for 3B on their roster…. a number 1 pick and 4th overall…. it’s time to play him.
They tried
..he got hurt again
Bregman comes with some of the same doubts (and assets) as last year–but he’s a year older and a year closer to losing what ever portion of the season will result from a lockout. He’s going to be overpaid. Just how long/how much. But I don’t believe he has that broad a market. There are a finite number of teams who have the fit/financial bandwidth.
Alex Bregman: hot and cold, often injured, overrated.
We’ll make room for you in the infield.
I’m a Tiger fan. I won’t miss not having Bregman. Remember, there is going to be a lockout in 2027 and teams will only get a portion of these superstars top performance seasons. 2027 will be delayed. Players won’t be 100% until well after the season is underway. Why pay prorated $30-$40 million for that? By the time a real 2028 season rolls around, Bregman will be 34 years old. If he’s on a 5-6 year contract he will be on the other side of his best performance years.
If he will take a 1 year deal, fine. But he won’t do that. Good luck to him with someone else.
Me neither. A pivot to Bichette on a short term, high dollar contract with opt-outs would be perfect.
Bill Meuller (2004)
Mike Lowell (2007)
Kevin Youkilis (2013)
Rafael Devers (2018)
Trade Duran to the Cubs.
Duran
FOR
Matt Shaw (3B), C. Horton
I feel like the red sox would do this…would the cubs?
Insane much? Cubs Horton is untouchable. For Duran? What are you smoking dude? Lmao. ZERO CHANCE
Love the background of Shaw (grew up in MA as a Pedroia fan) but not sure if how the Red Sox would view him given the fringy power and fringy arm. They tend to like prospects with big bat speed and exit velocities.
Can’t imagine the Cubs would trade Horton.
Also, Duran would be most valuable to a team in need of a CFer, which is definitely not the Cubs.
Olney is off his rocker. No way does Boston offer 6 years, nor should they.
He really messed up not taking Tigers offer. He’ll never earn $171M now.
Agree. He’s going back to the Red Sox, if anywhere soon.
I don’t think he’s worth 3/$90 million. But then, no one is asking me.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he goes unsigned into the beginning of the season.
warn – He will never go unsigned. If he doesn’t get what he wants by a certain date, he will settle for another one-and-done contract.
You’re probably right. If I was the Tigers I’d hold out for a last ditch, 1 year deal. No way I pay him $40 million like the Saux did.
Tigers have had bad luck, mostly pitchers, on 1 year deals. I could easily see Bregman getting hurt on a 1 year.
am I the only one who feels that the Red Sox are competing against themselves in all of this?
If they are going to do this, give him 3-4 years max with higher AAV and see if they can swing a Marte trade to shore up the infield defense and get some extra pop.