MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Happy Tuesday! I’ll get going at 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. As always, feel free to submit some questions ahead of time. I’ll take a mix of preloaded ones and live ones after we begin!
• Greetings! Apparently someone re-lit the stove.

Toronto Mike

• Reports state that Bo is seeking 300 million.  Do you see him getting this kind of money?

Steve Adams

• No, I don’t, but if the real goal is something like $250MM, then of course you say you’re looking closer to 300.I still think it’s probably somewhere in the 225 range, but we’ll see.

Jagger

• Do you think Colin Rea gets traded to a club that needs pitching now that he is on the outside of the Cubs rotation?

Steve Adams

• Rea signed as a free agent, meaning he can’t be traded without his consent until June 15. This is his second straight one-year deal with the Cubs, and he’s a midwest guy who wants to be in the midwest. He’s not getting traded. He’ll be in a swing role, which is surely fine with him. He’s used to it. And with injuries, he’ll probably still start 10+ games (as long as he remains healthy himself)

Nolan Arenado

• Assuming St Louis can’t trade me, why not take a page from the Angels book and defer the remaining contract over 3 or 4 years and cut me loose?

Steve Adams

• One of the very earliest questions from this morning, ha. What a difference a few hours makes!

brewers fan

• Thoughts on the Nolan arenado trade?

Steve Adams

• It’s about what I expected. The Cardinals ate 70% of the money and got basically no return. Arenado at two years and $11MM is a fine value for the D-backs. It works for all parties.
• Also, not trying to disparage Jack Martinez there, but he was an eighth-round senior sign who took below slot value last summer in the draft. He’s not a big get for the Cardinals. Hopefully they can turn him into something, but this trade was about clearing as much cash as possible and putting Arenado in a spot that’s better for him, his family, and his career goals.

Jays Fan

• How much money do you think Jays would have to retain to move Berrios? 3/66 left but a 37 year old Merill Kelly just signed for 2/40. Guessing there’d be more interest near the end of spring when injuries start happening.

Steve Adams

• Kelly is just better than Berrios, period. Berrios is durable, but he’s had a K% under 20 in three of the past four seasons. His command is more good now than great like it once was. His average fastball last year was 93 mph — a career-low and a full mile drop from the prior season.I don’t think he’d get half what he’s making right now on the open market, but due to scarcity and the difficulty of winning a free agent bidding, maybe some team would take him if Toronto ate 50% of the contract. At that point, they might just be better off keeping him though. It’s not like they’re 12-deep in genuine rotation options or anything.
• For the record, my vote in that Tucker poll was also for the Jays
• So I am with the majority here, it seems.

Bader

• Am I good fit for the Dbacks or will they go with Alek Thomas in CF?

Steve Adams

• Good on-paper fit, sure, but the D-backs are within $20MM or so of last year’s payroll and still need multiple relievers — all while trying to scale back their spending. I don’t think Bader works there. He should get $10MM+ annually on a multi-year deal (at least in my view, though the market has thumbed its nose at him a bit in the past)

O’s Fan

• Is the hold up on Valdez and Suarez due to teams not being willing to get close to the Cease deal and agents like Scott Boras marketing their client as equal to Cease thus leading to a stallmate?

Steve Adams

• Boras doesn’t rep Valdez.He does rep Suarez, but he also has to know Ranger was never going to be as desirable as Cease.Holdup is more just about waiting for anyone to meet the asking price. In some cases, they might be told they need to wait to see how the Kyle Tucker/Bo Bichette etc markets play out, as those clubs could pivot to run prevention if they don’t get their guys.

  We’ve already seen some reports that the Red Sox might look back at pitching now that they missed on Bregman. But no way they were giving out 100+ for a starter while they were still trying to keep Bregman there.

Philly Billy

• Sign Bichette and trade Bohm to the Angels, unless Bichettes defense wouldn’t offset his offense.

Steve Adams

• This scenario makes perfect sense to me, and I think Bichette would be fine at either second base or third base (though for arm strength purposes, the former seems a better fit)
• Pirates make some sense for Bohm, too.

bmcferren

• Pirates are in on Lawler? Is he a better bet than Vientos?

Steve Adams

• Both seem like reasonable targets, although I will say, Lawlar does not seem like he’s going to be a capable 3B defender. That’s also probably true of Vientos, though.Both are more along the lines of the Jhostynxon Garcia addition — high-upside, limited/no MLB track record — than the type of more established bats the Pirates were hoping to acquire though.

JD

• Colby Thomas from the A’s for Alec Bohm, who says no?

Steve Adams

• I’m the perennial down guy on Bohm. I just wouldn’t trade much of value to get him. I think he’s a decent player who’s better utilized in a more selective role against LHP. Thomas wouldn’t be a big sacrifice, but I’d probably keep the optionable guy who can play multiple spots and has a big track record against minor league pitching. I’d rather just sign Moncada for the same $10MM Bohm is owed, honestly.

DiPoto

• Am I really going into the season with an infield of Ben Williamson/Colt Emerson at 3rd, JP at Short, and Young at 2nd?  Doesn’t bringing Suarez back on a 2 year, $45 mil deal (which seems gettable now) make sense to play some 3rd, DH, and backup 1st to Naylor?

Steve Adams

• I’d be shocked if the Mariners went into the season with that infield arrangement. There’s still a month before pitchers and catchers report. Seven weeks before spring games begin in earnest. They’ll make some changes.

Andrew Bernard

• Does Sal Stewart break camp with the Reds?

Steve Adams

• That’s my expectation

Rich

• Do you think a 2nd baseman deal is likely for SF?

Steve Adams

• They’ll get someone. Don’t think it needs to be Hoerner or Donovan specifically, despite Passan reporting recent/ongoing talks for both. Donovan is the far more likely of the two to be traded.Would be interesting to see if they throw their hat in the ring for Bryson Stott if the Phillies sign Bichette and put him at 2B.

Miami Steve

• Weren’t the Marlins going to spend some money to avoid angering the luxury tax payers?

Steve Adams

• Hey! They uh… signed… Pete Fairbanks… and Christopher Morel!…Yeah they haven’t lived up to that so far, haha. But still plenty of offseason left, and they could use another reliever, a veteran starter for some depth, maybe an infielder or catcher.

Chris

• Re: Nico Hoerner’s availability – would you expect it to cost the Yankees the same player cost as Bellinger last year?

Steve Adams

• No way. The Cubs were trying to dump Bellinger’s salary and took almost no return. Hoerner has immense surplus value and would cost immediate, meaningful major league help

Mets

• We keep hearing the Mets are focused more on the trade side for starting pitching.  Give me a few players besides Peralta that are legitimate options.

Steve Adams

• Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Kris Bubic, Jose Berrios, Brady Singer, maybe Nick Pivetta. I could see one of Andrew Abbott or Nick Lodolo if they send the right bat back to Cincinnati. Mitch Keller. Kyle Freeland.Obviously not all great names, and the Mets probably aren’t interested in adding more back-of-the-rotation types, but just running through some names off the cuff. I’m sure with a big enough offer you could get the Twins to reconsider their “We’re not trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez” stance.

Me

• Tigers in on … no one? “Win now mode”, my ummmmm.. fanny.  Harris gotta go..

Steve Adams

• Tigers are following up their “most disappointing trade deadline from a contender” award with a run at “most disappointing offseason from a contender” — though I do like both the Jansen and Finnegan deals, and Flaherty coming back seems fine. Still pretty underwhelming as a whole, though.

keith

• If the blue jays sign Tuckerdo you think they should trade Santander

Steve Adams

• Was never a big fan of the Santander signing in the first place, so sure, if you can fine a taker, by all means.

AbeFromanJr

• Does Lenyn Sosa fit as a 2B option for SF? Not good defender but seems like they could use the bat.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he’s much of an upgrade over what they have in house. More power than Casey Schmitt, but Schmitt’s a better defender who probably ends up with comparable offensive value

My name

• Guards flip Logan Allen to Phil’s for Bohm ?

Steve Adams

• Cleveland wouldn’t do that.

Guardians

• Gaddis for Hoerner?

Steve Adams

• Cubs wouldn’t do that.

Louis

• Larger contract: Bichette this year or Chisholm Jr next year?

Steve Adams

• I’ll go Bo this year. Jazz is going to be a year older as a free agent and hasn’t been as consistently good with the bat as Bichette. He’s also had quite a few more injuries.

AA’s burner

• Is 1/$12 or 2/$20 enough to get Bassitt to join ATL?

Steve Adams

• If I’m Chris Bassitt, I look at Merrill Kelly’s 2/40 and say “I’m as good as he is.”

John

• Now that the Red Sox are in panic mode, who will the overpay for?

Steve Adams

• Probably no one? If they were willing to overpay, they wouldn’t be in panic mode. They’re here because they habitually refuse to sign guys in their 30s to long-term deals.

Terry

• When are the O’s going to trade Mayo and Mountcastle? Can they get a bucket of balls for them?

Steve Adams

• For Mayo, they can absolutely get a return. I’m still surprised they tendered a contract to Mountcastle.

LA fan

• Do you think Jack Leiter is a good breakout candidate?

Steve Adams

• He kind of already broke out in 2025, but I assume you mean elevating his status from “solid No. 3-4 guy” to a more clear cut playoff caliber starter. I do think that gear could still be in there. Command doesn’t seem like it’ll ever be great, but Leiter bumped his K%, SwStr% and other encouraging traits down the stretch last year. I don’t think he’s an ace, but a step forward from the 2-3 WAR, upper-3.00s ERA guy he finished the season as still feels possible.

Derek Falvey

• Why did I tender Trevor Larnach?

Steve Adams

• I don’t know. One of the more surprising players to be tendered a contract. I thought he was a surefire NT.

My name

• How does DD make the money work for Bo in Philly, thanks for taking my question.

Steve Adams

• I touched on this the other day when writing about their meeting. It’s not really that hard. It’d take a big hike in payroll for 2026, but you could backload the deal to offset some of that. By ’27, they only have $170MM-ish on the books and don’t have a particularly daunting arb class. By ’28, they’re down to Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Nola and Sanchez’s cheap extension on the books. Harper’s deal is already frontloaded; his salary will decrease within the next few years. Neither Turner nor Nola has a super-premium AAVV

mnfireman

• If I’m Chris Bassitt, I look at Merrill Kelly’s 2/40 and say “I’m as good as he is.”  – but younger

Steve Adams

• Not really. Kelly turned 37 a couple months ago. Bassitt turns 37 in Feb

Nats

• Nats shock everyone and sign Tucker to a 11 year deal, leading the rebuild – Jayson Werth 2.0!

Steve Adams

• Won’t happen, but as a perpetual advocate for unmitigated baseball chaos, let me go on record as saying “Yes please.”

Dave D.

• Bichette to Phillies serious or a negotiating tactic to make JT sign?

Steve Adams

• Serious

Bucco Basement

• If Skubal wins his arb case, this surely increases the likelihood that the Pirates trade Skenes this offseason, right? if the Pirates underperform this season, this bumps up even more to the trade deadline. there’s no way they start paying him $30M+ this early in his career.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so. Skubal is only able to even attempt this “blow up the arb system” because he has 5+ years of service. Skenes will set records in arb but do so more incrementally. Pirates will probably still trade him at some point … but probably not for another three years.

FU Jobu

• Where do you see Daniel Espino contributing this year?

Steve Adams

• Would love that, but the kid has barely pitched in the past three years due to multiple surgeries. I wouldn’t be holding my breath.

CJ Red

• Have the Red Sox positioned themselves as a team no longer attractive to free agents?

Steve Adams

• No. They’ve just positioned themselves as a team that doesn’t like to outbid the field for free agents. If they’d matched Chicago’s offer, he’d be there.

Richard

• hey Steve, which of the ms pitchers do you see getting an extension? With Anderson, Sloan and Cijante coming up maybe this year what do they do with their starting rotation?

Steve Adams

• Woo is the only one who really seems like a prime candidate for me. Gilbert is only two years from free agency. Kirby doesn’t seem like he’d want to sell low on himself. Miller, I just wouldn’t extend after this year unless it was on really friendly terms (and, from his vantage point, why do that?)Injuries will probably sort a lot of that out organically, but none of those three prospects is ready for the majors or all that close right now. They all feel more like 2027 guys to me, and even if they push for the majors in ’26, the Mariners will probably have some starts available when the current quintet gets hurt. It’s all under the “good problem to have” cliche.

BeBopCola

• Your latest guess on who Peralta gets traded to or do you think he remains a brewer?

Steve Adams

• I lean toward him staying, but if I’m forced to pick a team that trades for him, I’d lean Mets.

Joey B

• Here’s an odd fit that could make sense: Verlander to the Yankees on a incentive-rich deal.  They need a veteran depth piece and he finished the season strong.  Yes/no/maybe?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s an odd fit from a roster/team need perspective. But I also don’t see why he’s taking an incentive-laden deal. Verlander got $15MM guaranteed last year as a 42-year-old coming off a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts/90 innings. Yeah, he’s 43 now, but he made 29 starts, pitched 152 innings with a 3.85 ERA, and finished on absolute fire.Why’s he taking a pay cut?

Cute Lady

• Is it safe to say that William Contreras is upset with the Brewers for lowballing him?

Steve Adams

• No. This is just arbitration.

Brian Davis Christian

• Do you see the Tigers trading Skubal or riding the season out with him and ending up with a draft pick when he signs somewhere else

Steve Adams

• Have said for months now that while it’ll of course be talked about ad nauseum this winter, I see an almost 0% chance he’s traded. Still my mindset. They’ll either get a pick or re-sign him to a monster contract  next winter.

High Aav

• With Tucker now being open to a 3 year 40m AAV deal. Do you think its an overall league trend to do inflated AAV contracts instead of longer deals with multiple down years in late 30s

Steve Adams

• Just because that’s where the Mets’ offer is does not mean that he’s necessarily open to it. Plus, multiple reports during this chat have said that their offer is actually worth more than $50MM annually. Let’s get weird!

Ebbets Field.

• AAV for Bo?  My friend says $30+, I’m at $25

Steve Adams

• Depends entirely on the years. I’d be closer to 25, but if he ends up going for 7 or fewer years, then 30+, yeha.

Angels fan

• Angels are stuck in no-man’s land again. Is it too much to ask them to target Bohm in a trade after Bichette goes to Philly?

Steve Adams

• It’s not too much, no, but Alec Bohm isn’t moving the needle much for them.

Ketel Marte

• Does the addition of Arenado to the Diamondbacks put trading me back on the table?

Steve Adams

• No. They got Arenado for the price of basically a middle reliever.

TxDude

• Is a Castellanos trade still likely or no?

Steve Adams

• I have thought all offseason that he’ll just be released, and I still think that.

E. Suarez

• E.Suarez, in your mind: team, contract (Salary and Years)?

Steve Adams

• At this point I’d probably guess something like two years and $48MM. I was very much on board with our three-year prediction back in November, but I think that was only going to be there if someone made him a priority, which clearly hasn’t been the case.Not saying I’d be stunned if he signed for three years and $54-63MM total or anything, but I think two feels safer now.

Rick

• Rules question:  if the white sox signed Tucker would they lose the #1 pick?

Steve Adams

• Here you go:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/each-teams-penalty-for-signing-…

Cool Mama Bell

• Tucker is not worth $50M AAV.

Steve Adams

• The Mets agree! They’d be paying a 110% tax on his contract’s AAV, so they think he’s worth $100MM+ annually.

JankyLeg

• The Rangers seem like they are one deGrom/Eovaldi/Seager major injury from falling off the map. With limited payroll, do you see them pivoting to a youth movement in short order if things don’t work out?

Steve Adams

• I can see that more in 2027 if things don’t work out in 2026.

Skubal

• What does a Free agent deal look for Tarik? Gotta assume it starts with at least a 3 and has a lot of zeros that follow.

Steve Adams

• Not convinced it starts with a 3.
• But that’s because I think it might start with a 4.
• I’ve got to call it for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social for more questions.We had 900+ people in here today, so no chance to get to all the questions, but thank you all for chatting and participating! If you want more opinions and analysis from the MLBTR team, plus ad-free viewing, exclusive articles and access to our tools (Contract Tracker, Agency Database, GM Tracker), you can check out our Front Office subscription package!

  Have a great week, everyone!