On the heels of an update to the market for this winter’s top free agent, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Tucker nearing decision?:
The market for star outfielder Kyle Tucker seems to be moving toward a conclusion. Earlier this morning, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported that Tucker could land somewhere as soon as today. The Mets, Blue Jays, and Dodgers have generally been viewed as the favorites for his services, and Heyman suggests it would be a “major upset” for Tucker to sign elsewhere at this point. The Blue Jays are the only team known to have extended Tucker a long-term offer, although the specifics aren’t known. The Mets have been reported at varying times over the past few days as having a $50MM AAV on the table for Tucker and also having offered a four-year deal. The Dodgers, for their part, appear to be the wild card in the Tucker bidding. Playing in L.A. surely holds its own appeal as the Dodgers head into 2026 in search of a three-peat, but it’s unclear what sort of offer the club has on the table for Tucker, if a formal one has been presented at all.
2. Bregman presser today:
The Cubs are hosting an introductory press conference for newly-signed third baseman Alex Bregman this morning at 10:30am CT. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, figure to be in attendance. The presser could offer some insight into how the Cubs plan to handle their newly-crowded infield. Bregman will presumably push Matt Shaw off of third base and into a utility role barring a trade involving either Shaw himself or second baseman Nico Hoerner. Hoerner, in particular, has seen his name come up in trade rumblings this winter, even as reports have indicated the Cubs aren’t inclined to move him and would need to be overwhelmed with an offer in order to do so.
3. 2026 international signing period opens:
The 2026 signing period for international amateurs has begun and will remain open until December 15. Teams have set bonus pools ranging from $8,034,900 to $5,440,000 for the upcoming period that they can allocate however they see fit — including trading bonus allotments in $250K increments. (A team can only acquire a maximum of 60% of its originally allotted pool, however.) Many of the most highly-regarded prospects in the class have had handshake agreements in place with MLB clubs for years before they were old enough to sign, so for plenty players at the top of the class their destination is already known. Among the top prospects available are Venezuelan shortstop Luis Hernandez (tied to the Giants), Venezuelan outfielder Francisco Renteria (tied to the Phillies), and Dominican shortstop Wandy Asigen (tied to the Mets). There’s excellent coverage of international amateur free agency at Baseball America, MLB.com, and BeisbolFR.com (among others), and we’ll aim to have a roundup of some of the top signings on MLBTR later today as well.
Tucker to the Dodgers?
Yes, please
No private jets heading towards Toronto today?
Tucker to the Mutts?
The Dodgers are in it just to push up the price
Fred
“The Dodgers are in it just to push up the price”
You don’t know that
You’re right I don’t, but it reminds me of Soto last year. They’re only in if his market tanked.
Fred
A sincere kudo for admitting that and not making a dumb internet fight about it
I’d say, but don’t know, they they are making what they feel is a competitive offer and trying to sell him on some non-monetary benefits: LA, Winning, Their analytics staff and ability to help him improve.
I kind of feel like the owners have no interest in driving up player salaries just to possibly spite each other. I think it’s more likely they’d collude to keep them down.
I’m a Dodgers fan, and would be stoked to see Tucker in LA, but my hopes aren’t all that high. I think you’re right, they’re in it just to see the rate go up.
MoAM
“the owners have no interest in driving up player salaries ”
Right. And like, how do people think that works exactly?
I defer to laugh at that…funny…lol.
The reportedly very corrupt international amateur signing process remains the same big market feeder it has always been. 1/3 of top players hail from Latin America and virtually all of them signed with top 10 market teams. MLB and networks adore that it should work this way.
So now there are allocations based on market size. Great!! And where are the top 3 prospects signing ? Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Baltimore?
No.
Mets
San Francisco
philadelphia
If I owned a small market team, I would never vote for ANY CBA contract that didn’t include a draft
I’m with you but some teams would be pulling up mlb.com to find names to draft lol. Also the top prospects have even a higher probability of busting out than current draft.
Looking at MLB top 100 from EOY 2025 The following players I am able to identify as International signings:
Jesus Made-MIL
Luis Pena – MIL
Lazaro Montes – SEA
Josue Briceno -DET
Josue DePuala – LAD
Alfredo DUnn – CIN
Moises Bellastros – CHC
Raniel Rodriguez – STL
Eduardo Tait -Min – via Phi
Angel Genoa -CLE
Emmanual Rodriguez -Min
Ethan Salas – SDP
Edward Florentino – PIt
Josuar Gonzalez – SFG
Jeferson Quero – MIL
I’m sure I missed a few. But just from this list, there are quite a bit of Brewers and Reds. I also do see more players from small market teams than big market teams.
The so called small market teams have a lot more signing money.
Facts
I retract. My data is old and was based on MLB stars.
Still annoyed to see top 3 looking like a throwback to the old ways.
Good work. My understanding was dated, and was based on top MLB players, not prospects.
Your way is more up to date so I went thru BA top prospect lists. Among the top 50, it was hugely unbalanced in favor of top 10 markets until 2019. Then the gap started closing.
Top 10 markets/rest of mlb
2015 10/7
2017 13/7
2019 8/6
2021 6/4
2023 7/5
2025 4/8
So they fixed it finally. But it was still imbalanced just 2 years ago, so I was t that out of date.
Somehow this league watched for decades as the more competitive NBA and the extremely balanced NFL pulled far away in popularity and said “nope, we still want to funnel talent to the big markets”. I feel they deserve my skepticism.
@saj
This criticism completely misunderstands how the international bonus pool system actually works.
First, the bonus pool money doesn’t come from individual team revenues—it comes from MLB’s centralized revenue streams, primarily national TV deals. Every team receives an allocation from this shared pool, meaning large-market teams aren’t using their financial advantages here.
Second, the system is explicitly designed to favor small-market teams. The allocation is based on reverse order of winning percentage and market factors. As shown in the 2025 pools:
• Small-market teams like the Pirates, Rockies, and Royals get $8,034,900
• Large-market teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Giants get $5,440,000
That’s a 48% difference—nearly $2.6 million more for smaller-market clubs.
Third, teams that sign major league free agents have their international pools reduced as a penalty, further limiting big-market spending power in this area. The system actively discourages the typical large-market advantage.
If 3 of the top 5 international prospects chose to sign with big-market teams, that’s their personal decision based on organizational reputation, player development track records, or personal preference—not because those teams had more money to offer. In fact, they had significantly less bonus pool money available than their small-market competitors.
The international system is one of the most balanced mechanisms in baseball. Complaining about it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how it operates.
No, it was just based on old data. Gotta admit it seems to have changed
@saj
And I seriously doubt that players care as much about the market size of the team as much as they do opportunity and betting fast tracked to the majors. If a team like the Yanks, Mets and Dodgers have more resources to find talent (draft, trades and FA) VS small market teams that can’t afford to trade or sign start players and are more dependent on their Farm and cost controlled players I would think the snake market teams would be more speaking to players who want to get to the bigs and thru their cost controlled years quicker.
Here’s a breakdown of the bonus pools:
$8,034,900 Pool: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Orioles, Pirates, Rockies, Royals.
$7,357,100 Pool: Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins.
$6,679,200 Pool: Angels, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox.
$5,940,000 Pool: Blue Jays, Padres, Red Sox.
$5,440,000 Pool: Astros, Giants, Mets, Yankees.
And every time a major market team signs a FA or go over the kix tax they lose picks and international draft pool money. They can acquire more in $250k increments but that’s at the discretion of smaller market teams giving it up.
Large markets are filling the outside world with their future signing as stated years ahead of time. The publications that rank these teens are going to sell their rankings towards those markets. The majority of these teens wont make to MLB just like June draft choices. They’ve given small markets more money to sign the top ifa. Luxury taxes are spread to small markets for the IFA which if used as intended improves the scouting. Milwaukee took that money, found a Venezuelan market to scout and invest in. It wasn’t as scouted by other MLB teams. Small market leadership is the difference between the success Milw is having with the benefits given to a small market, and Colorado and Miami not enjoying the same success.
SFG got their guy signed.
The Dodgers haven’t made an offer and it feels obvious that they are only being tossed in the conversation as a way to drive up the price for the Mets or Jays.
Tucker feels like a product of a weak FA class and some teams over-reacting to last seasons end results. If Harper or Machado were FA’s this offseason, I’d still want my team going after them before going to Tucker.
Tucker was expected to get $400 million when Ohtani, just two years ago, got $465 (present net value). Judge got $365. In what world is Tucker, just two years later, in this conversation?
Just my feeling but I’m jumping on the Chris Rose train and saying that this guy looks more like Rendon than Trout. Hard pass.
Timing is everything, Miles, and inflation is a thing. Tucker doesn’t “deserve” $50M a year… no ballplayer does. That’s not the question. The issue is, who needs him the most and is willing to make the commitment? The Mets are that team, I think, and now that Cohen is involved they will jack up the AAV accordingly to get it done.
This is probably the strongest FA class with multiple elite bats in it, what are you talking about?
Also, Tucker will probably get $360M but the NPV will probably be under $300 with deferrals.
Is the Trout contract the good one?
Since he signed it he put up one 6.1 WAR season, one season of 2.9 WAR, and four seasons of less than 2 WAR.
And it’s very likely he will be a gimp the last 5 yrs of the deal. A lot of cheddar for 1 pretty good year.
But but but.. the Angels are wasting Mike Trout!! That narrative is so played out. Trout’s contract is the worst in baseball. The Angels have been hamstrung by Trout and Rendon, but at least the end of Rendon is near. I mean, he’s gone, but the ghost is still haunting.
@derail
But but.. they did. Dude was there for 10 years as one of the best players in the game. And to make matters worse, for 6 years they had him and Ohtani. I get it, having the best doesn’t guarantee a chip but they failed to even qualify for the playoffs except for 1 year when, I think, they eye just a wild card team. At least a guy like Judge has been to the playoffs a few times and a WS, and is still knocking.
Wrong.. Trout disappeared 6 years ago. Funny, right around the time the HGH stuff started around him too.
Tucker has been one of the premier hitters in baseball over the past several years. He’s younger and better than Harper and Machado.
The ugly truth is, Tucker just wasn’t very good last year. It probably was partly due to injuries; it probably was partly due to the nature of his game, which seems to value consistency and “process”–good things, certainly–to a fault. He’s not exciting, and he doesn’t do exciting things, like get game-winning hits. He is a good player, not a star. One writer aptly called him “five tools lite ” He will be paid well, and will do well in a lineup where he doesn’t have to be “the guy,” like the Dodgers or Blue Jays.
@Alan53 When healthy, Tucker has averaged 5.8 bWAR per 162 games. That’s a 28 y.o. player an organization builds around. For reference, Soto has average 6.3/162. Your anecdotal assessment of Tucker is a bit inaccurate because there is value in his defense.
His defense is trending down and he’s not a leader. Low-key , low charisma…there are peripheral aspects to Tucker’s game that bring him down a few notches. He also completely disappears in the postseason.
@YBC: Actually, his defense wasn’t too good last season either; he pulled up on a lot of catchable balls. If you watched him every day as I did, what you saw was a good player who almost never got “big” hits, whose OBP was high because he walked a lot, and who was oddly unimpactful in a Cubs lineup that really needed impact. Some players’ bWAR is better than they are.
He played pepper with the first baseman a lot. And, while his stance and swing gave him good plate coverage, it was the kind of good plate coverage that resulted in a lot of lazy flies to center–so it was not really that good.
Now, at different times he seemed to be favoring his 2024 leg injury, and playing through his 2025 hand injury. I’ll grant that a perfectly healthy Tucker might be a very good player–especially if he plays half his games in an indoor stadium or one in a warm climate, that seems to be an issue with him–but I am doubtful he will ever be both healthy and happy with his new team.
It is telling that the usually clamorous Cubs fans are not clamoring from his return–and have been more than ready to see him go since about August. They–we–did not like what we saw.
Tucker to Los Doyers on short term deal since winning a championship will do wonders fer free agency.
Bet the Jays land him.
Mystery team. I’m going with the long shot,The Stroes. Ha! It’s possible. They did it before. That would be a real shocker.
Phillies need to sign Francisco Renteria. He will be a future power hitting OF. This something Phillies lack in their farm system
My guess is Tucker to the Blue Jays 7/$280M.
Matt Shaw was better than anybody expected at 3B last year, especially defensively. I’m still surprised Bregman landed there. Think Bellinger lands with the Yankees and Bo Bichette to the Phillies.
If Bo signs with Philly, I think it will be a straight 5/$150M – very similar to Kyle Schwarber’s deal.
In that scenario, they could try to trade Bryson Stott + Taijuan Walker to SF Giants for Robbie Ray. Or Stott to Tampa Bay Rays for AL Holds leader, Griffin Jax. Both of those clubs are reportedly trying to acquire a 2B via trade – Phillies could upgrade their pitching staff.
If they decide Bo is going to play 3B, Phils could try to ship 3B Alec Bohm, CF Johan Rojas + 2B Aroon Escobar (#5) to the Astros for Josh Hader (or Bryan Abreu) + CF Jake Meyers (3 for 2).
Escobar would become Houston’s new #1 prospect and eventual replacement for franchise icon, Jose Altuve at 2B. If they sent Hader back in the deal, they would shed that $10M+ they are looking to unload and have an in-house replacement at CL, in Abreu. Heck, we could even swap our worst contracts in the deal (Casty for McCullers) – Astros have a big hole in LF, and with the dimensions of that ballpark – even Castellanos can handle LF down there.
Here’s what an Astros/Phillies blockbuster could look like with salaries dead even.
Astros acquire: (5 players/$40M in salary)
– Alec Bohm 3B (1/$10M)
– Jose Alvarado LHP (1/$9M)
– Nick Castellanos LF (1/$20M)
– Johan Rojas CF
– Aroon Escobar 2B (#5)
Phillies acquire: (3 players/$40M)
– Josh Hader LHP (3/$57M)
– Lance McCullers RHP (1/$17M)
– Jake Meyers CF (1/$4M)
Alvarado sets up Abreu, Casty plays LF, Rojas platoons w/ Astros rookie CF’er Zach Cole and Houston goes back to a 5 man rotation after subtracting McCullers.
Phillies form a lethal R/L back of the pen (Duran/Hader), which makes sense considering their SP’s average almost 7 innings per outing. SP gives you 7 and then it’s lights out. McCullers keeps the rotation spot warm for Zach Wheeler, due to return in May. Meyers is the high contact/low K rate, GG caliber CF’er the Phillies need for their lineup. When Crawford gets the inevitable call up, Meyers can take some pressure off the rookie CF’er – while playing LF vs. LHP’s and RF vs. certain RHP that Garcia hasn’t handled well during his career.
They could also consider a bad contract swap Casty for Jordan Hicks and include Bohm and a prospect to acquire Wilyer Abreu. Just some ideas
Why would the Giants give up Robbie Ray for a marginal upgrade at 2B AND take on Walker’s terrible contract?
This is a dream come true for the Phillies which is why you know there is pretty much no way in heck the Astros do this…….unless
They are in a half rebuild mode and think Escobar is going to be a star.
One of the MANY rumors now surrounding the Red Sox following the Suarez signing is they may abandon the idea of looking for a big bat and with upgraded pitching might instead turn to run prevention. Moving Mayer over to third makes a little more sense if a gold glove defender is at second.
Is Hoerner realistically on the market with the Bregman signing or is this just wild speculation? If so, what do the Cubs want/need? The Sox now have outfield and/or pitching to deal from.
I think Hoerner is on the market in the sense that they’re listening to offers, but I’m sure it’s going to take a very solid deal to actually get them to move off him
So basically he’s on the market in the same way every player is on the market. No real motivation or desire to trade him but if the Cubs think they’ll win the deal they’ll take it. Gotcha.
@Acolyte: The New York media are trying to convince themselves that the Cubs’ situation with Hoerner is the same as their situation with Bellinger last year: that they will give him away for salary relief. But that is not so at all. Hoyer loves Hoerner, and Shaw can easily slot into a backup role for 2026. Yankees’ fans are being misled.
Mayer probably ends up at 3B with Campbell at 2B. One move the Sox could make is move Ceddane Rafaela to 2B (or SS and move Story to 2B) which would alleviate some of the OF/DH logjam. Duran or Anthony could play CF with the other playing LF and Yoshida at DH until Casas is ready
I keep forgetting Rafaela can play second but I think it would be a horrible move to put him there full time. Rafaela is arguably the best defensive centerfielder is the MLB right now. At second he’s average at best. If push came to shove I’d rather them release Yoshida than move Rafaela to second full time.
Pca says no thanks
Think if the Phillies sign Bo Bichette to play 3B, Bohm will end up getting dealt to the Red Sox. He’s got a great approach at the plate, low K rate and uses all fields. Boston’s lineup currently projects to have just 3 RH hitters in their starting lineup: Story, Contreras & Rafaela. They need a RH 3B and RH corner OF’er to replace Rob Refsnyder. Have suggested that the Phillies could potentially align with the Red Sox in a bad contract swap, Castellanos (1/$20M) for Jordan Hicks (2/$25M). Both Bohm and Casty, who’s never injured and PS battle tested, should be motivated in a contract year. Would balance out the Sox lineup, a risk worth taking for both teams in my opinion.
Red Sox acquire:
– N. Castellanos RF (1/$20M)
– A. Bohm 3B (1/$10M)
– M. Lazar RHP
– G. Rincones Jr. OF (#9)
Phillies acquire:
– Jordan Hicks RHP (2/$25M)
– Wilyer Abreu RF (arb eligible thru ‘28)
The Red Sox haven’t reached their budget yet, but if the Phillies sign Bo – they would almost certainly be paying at the highest luxury tax threshold. Sox would be adding about $16M to the ledger in 2026 in this hypothetical, however they’d be saving about $20M in future payroll – financial incentive for both clubs.
Abreu isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2027 and under team control til 2030. Why would the Sox trade him for one year of Bohm and one year of Castellanos? The Sox could swap Hicks for Castellanos straight up or get both Castellanos and Bohm for Hicks and cash.
I don’t think the Phillies will be fortunate enough to trade Castellanos when they’ve made it abundantly clear that he will not go north with the team after training camp and teams can just wait until he is released and pay him the prorated league minimum with the Phillies on the hook for the rest
I’m just not seeing the Red sox moving Abreu without getting more than he’s actually worth. One major strength the Red Sox have right now is outfield defense. Rafaela and Abreu alone makes out defense in the outfield possibly the best in the league. Add in the years of control and Duran still seems like the more likely to be leaving.
I think Jed does not like working with Boras, so I’m curious how that press conference is going to go down
Any superstar that goes to the Dodgers at this point is just a wussy. Let’s just allow the Dodgers to win the World Series for the next 10 years straight. Players should have more competitiveness in them and want to beat the Dodgers similar to what the Japanese pitcher said.